FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

March 27

DJ Transport ETF IYT: At Technical Crossroads?
​The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above the Major Support Trendline; failing to do so should bring a more severe correction phase on the other Stock Indices

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​A few signs tells me to be cautious here: Trump start to feel the weight of politics, US Dollar Index (DXY) weaker and no new high yet on Major Indices on good economic numbers...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is now less volatile (VIX60C) than the SP100 Index (VIX) as the US Stock Market started a correction phase...

Capturing Mean Reversion Via Momentum
​For an investor the takeaway is good news... rather having to allocate to an underperforming asset class over the past x years, simply wait for that underperforming / cheap asset class to start performing well.

A Big Tailwind for the Stock Market Has Now Dissipated
​Sentiment has turned bullish. Optimism towards the economy has surged to a 2-year high and profit expectations are near a 7-year high. As a result, global allocations to equities rose to a 2-year high in March and "risk appetite" is also at a 2-year high. All of this suggests the big tailwind for equities has now dissipated. The one remaining positive is the high cash balance at funds.

The Inverse of Keynes
In fundamental terms of earnings, there is only further confirmation of a lack of growth, both as a matter of the rebound from early 2016 as well as from the global slowdown in 2012. At $94.54, ttm EPS are almost exactly the same now as when QE3 started, and are only 6.8% more than Q1 2012 all those years ago!


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​​March 20

Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: The Apple Experiment?
​Apple Shares are testing a Major Relative Daily Resistance Zone with the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.

US Technical Charts Potpourri
US Dollar weaknesses lately ain t good: We need to be cautious here...​

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
The XIU ETF is still more Volatile than the SP100 Index as Financial, Energy and Materials under pressure last few weeks....​

Surge in Global Economic Surprises, Business Confidence Continues
From worst to first in one year for the Citi Economic Surprise Index.​

Do smart-beta investment funds work?
​As with all investment, it’s a question of timing

Another Missed Opportunity
​The Fed should take the opportunity to ween the market off the dangerous perception that QE is available to ensure the extinction of bear markets and recessions. It's this momentous market perception that works to ensure baby-step rate increases have no restraining impact on Bubble Dynamics.

3 Charts That Show Stock Market Euphoria Is Totally Unprecedented

March 13

Stocks and Rates: This Time is Different?
Simply stated, US Corporations have a lot more debt to GDP then before the US Financial Crisis.​

US Technical Charts Potpourri
A few signs tell me to be cautious here...​

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
The XIU ETF is still more Volatile than the SP100 Index...​

March 6

​SP100 Index: When Generals do Lead
​​​In Summary, we have now Generals that do lead tremendously the market and small technology capitalization stocks as well as High Beta Stocks. That tells me that more market participants are choosing liquidity at the mercy of illiquid technology stocks. Usually we see that behavior in last part of a Bull Market Cycle.

US Technical Charts Potpourri
Another Trump Headline (State of the Union) gave some new push to new highs on stocks and with a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY): good behavior remains the key here...​

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is still more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because Financials within the XIU ETF (42.1%) made a Weekly Bearish Engulfing Technical Pattern two weeks ago...

Why Warren Buffett Is So Reluctant To Call Stocks A ‘Bubble’
​I think the simple reason for this is that Mr. Buffett doesn’t want to go down in history as they guy who burst the “everything bubble.”

Poor Close Ends Record Run For Stocks
​Stocks’ record streak without a weak close came to an end yesterday; what does it mean going forward?

Positive and Negative Trends in U.S. Dividends
​Meanwhile, if we consider the bigger picture by including dividend increases, we see that the number of U.S. firms announcing higher dividends is continuing to fall year over year, continuing a four-year long negative trend.

Bonds See Gloom Where Stocks See Zoom
​Investors who are plowing into riskier securities ought to pay heed to the dour debt party poopers crowded into the corner. All parties come to an end, and sometimes the hangover is non-negotiable.

March 1

​Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward...

Trump’s Mysterious Stock Boom
​Markets hate uncertainty, so why do they love an unpredictable President?

Factor zoo or unicorn ranch
​Each factor that I looked at failed to hold up under one or more of these tests: robustness, persistence, pervasiveness, intuitiveness, and investabilty. But short interest and trend appear to be effective ways to enhance portfolios.

A Global Eurodollar Shortage
The Bank of International Settlement (BIS) believes the concerns with the US Dollar are now such that it has replaced the VIX as a "Fear Gauge" for global banks.

​February 27

DJ Transport ETF IYT: Can you give me a Break?
The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above The Major Resistance Trendline

​​​US Technical Charts Potpourri
A stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) remains the key here...​

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is still more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because Financials within the XIU ETF (42.1%) made a Weekly Bearish Engulfing Technical Pattern

February 20

​SP500: A Nervous SKEW with Complacent VIX?
​​That shows how Traders are not in full comfort mode (into a too low volatility environment and paying aggressively for some options hedges).

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Another Trump Headline (potential tax cuts) two weeks ago gave some push to new highs on stocks and a reversal with a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY): good behavior remains the key here...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is surprisingly still more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because we have more Financials in the XIU ETF and US foreign policies uncertainties rising tremendously

The Reflationary Window: Open How Wide For How Long?
​But the global profit recovery is real, for the coming few quarters at least, supporting our cyclically bullish stance on global equities through the coming 12 months.

Don’t Bank On This Breakout
​The recent breakout in financials is occurring right into potential chart resistance.

OBI-ED'S MAGICAL INDICATOR
​Raw industrial commodities are the Obi-wan Kenobi of this indicator.




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