FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight

June 22

SPY ETF/Apple Shares: Still a Tale of Two Wedges?
Could Apple Shares continue tu under perform because of the Russell rebalancing...

US Treasury Bond IEF ETF: Back at Weekly Support?
But few realize that already, we are back testing the Major Support ​Trendline ​of ​that Rising Wedge that started back since July 2012

Why the Brexit isn’t the biggest risk investors should worry about
Brexit, negative interest rates, and a rising U.S. dollar were, at the time of the panel discussion, the obvious risks.

Is Telecom Chart Calling For Higher Prices?
The often over-looked telecom sector has broken out to 9-year highs.

Shadow Fed Funds Rate Says Sell US Equities
While a run toward all-time highs is possible leading up to the next Fed hike, the risk/reward tradeoff remains to the downside

​​​JPM: Buybacks Are Supporting The Market
Equity withdrawal activity by the US non-financial sector surpassed $170 billion in the first quarter of 2016, reaching the highest level since the third quarter of 2007.

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​​​​​​​​​​June 21

SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: At Panic Level?
That shows how Market Participants are not in full comfort mode (into a too low volatility environment but paying for some options hedge)

The Energy Sector (XLE): Back at the Resistance Zone?
As we are testing again that Second Major Trendline price wise, we are near breaking the Second Major Resistance Trendline on a relative basis

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What the ‘single best stock-market predictor’ is saying now
Look at the percentage of household financial assets invested in equities

​​​Can Airline Stocks Get Off The Ground?
While the major stock averages recently buzzed all-time highs, airline stocks have dropped to 20-month lows; is there any hope for these stocks?

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Tyler Kling of Macro-Ops Says Junk Bonds Will Signal Equity Market Inflection Point
Junk debt now serves as key watchpoint for which direction the market is likely to head or if higher highs in the stock market are sustainable.

Why America’s men aren’t working
Since the start of the downturn, the percentage of that population that has a job or is looking for one has dropped more than 3 percentage points, to 62.6 percent, a level not seen since the 1970s.

US Railroad Carloads Below 2009/2010 Lows [Charts]
Total railroad traffic carloads have fallen off a cliff this year.

​​June 20

Markets to SP500 Index: Brace for Volatility?
SP 500 Index Volatility is quite low compare to its peers.

​Cda TSX Small Cap Index: Outperforming?
But for me, we can still have an outperformance of Small Capitalization but the real break out will be only if we are able to get over the previous peak in price reached on November 21 2014 at 620.57

Imagine - John P. Hussman
Imagine that the Fed not only refused to take serious account of the distorting impact of yield-seeking speculation on the financial markets, but actually welcomed it, citing it as an example of the “effectiveness” of quantitative easing, in the appallingly misguided belief that “wealth” is inherent in the price you pay for a security, rather than in the long-term stream of cash flows that the security will deliver over time.

The Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin - Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors?
Indeed, open interest in silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been steadily increasing this year, with open interest now roughly equal and equivalent in size to that of COMEX.

​​A Wake Up Call For International Stocks
Perpetually under-performing international equity markets are testing critical support.

Where the S&P 500 Faces Brexit Exposure
According to FactSet Market Aggregates and FactSet Geographic Revenue Exposure data (based on the most recently reported fiscal year data for each company in the index), the aggregate revenue exposure of the S&P 500 to the United Kingdom is 2.9%.

Bonds’ lousy outlook doesn’t mean stocks are more attractive
You ought to calculate the stock market’s value in its own right

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​​​​​​​​June 17

​​Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: Testing Major Support?
What strikes me the most, is that the relative volatility (ratio of Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index over the SP500 Volatility Index) is a its lowest since the beginning of 2015.

Why dividend-stock investors need a new approach to valuations
A new ETF considers buyback yields when selecting dividend stocks

Examining Industry Return Correlations
Since the financial crisis, there has been a certain amount of chatter about how important financials in general (and banks in particular), are to the performance of the overall stock market.

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European Bank Stocks On The Ledge
Already plumbing multi-year lows, European banks are threatening to fall off another chart “cliff”.

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Morgan Stanley fears policy makers repeating mistakes of 1930s
Fiscal policy stimulus could avert relapse into recession: economist

All the world loves bonds, but maybe for the wrong reason
David Ader, chief Treasury strategist at CRT Capital, said the U.S. 10-year yield is being tugged lower, mostly due to interest rate differentials, with the Japanese and German 10-year now at negative yields.

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​​​​​June 16

DJ Transportation: Divergence Prevail?
But most importantly, what puzzle me the most is that, a Big Divergence continue to prevail between Dow Jones Transportation the Dow Jones Industrials and the Mighty SP500 Index. As it keep underperforming, it become a serious warning from the Dow Theory.

US Treasury Bond TLT ETF: Critical Week?
It is becoming a Critical Week technically speeking for the TLT ETF as Bulls need to protect the previous Breakout Trendline.

The Fed Is Learning Just How Hard the Exit From Easy Money Will Be
They have to figure out whether the feedback loops between economic weakness and easy money in other countries create unconventional risks to the United States by raising rates too quickly.

​​​The Proof That Most Investors Are Their Own Worst Enemy
Investors are their own worst enemy. Forget trying to find the next hot trend or stock. It’s our built-in psychological biases that lead to bad decisions and ultimately drive our long-term financial success.
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Are Net Stocks Gearing Up For One More High?
The internet sector, one of this bull market’s leaders, may be poised for one more new high.

​​​​​​​June 15

Financial Sector (XLF) : 200 DMA Broken?
But the most interesting Technical Factor for me, is that the Financials mostly failed to get over the previous breakdown support line on a relative basis.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - June
Allocations to US equities remain near their 8-year lows, a level from which the US should continue to outperform, as it has during the past year.

​​​Exchange-Traded Products Are Making Volatility More Volatile
The growing popularity of these products gives them the power to magnify market moves.

​​​What the LinkedIn Deal Reveals About Bubbles
In the U.S., corporate bonds outstanding amounted to 27 percent of gross domestic product as of March 2016, up from 20 percent at the end of 2007.


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