FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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August 27

SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
But the Real Interesting Technical Factor is that those gaps are within the Fibonacci retracement ( from the top on July 20 to the bottom on August 24) of 0.382 at 2032.5 and the 0.618 retracement at 1969.4.

The Consumer Staples Sector - XLP : Relative Resistance ?
We reached the Resistance Trendline on a Relative Basis ( ratio of XLP over SP500 Index ) of the previous peak that was done on January 15 2015. Expect some consolidation of that sector within the next few sessions on a relative basis.

​​​Technical Observation of the Day: Death Cross Pattern on Apple

On August 26, the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) of Apple Shares then at $121.37 closed below the 200 DMA then at $121.54.
​​
Bottoming Process
​​Prudent investors need to understand how previous panics have bottomed out.

Here's why an Apple bear changed his tune
Two things happened Monday to cause Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um—a long-time Apple bear—to upgrade his rating on Apple’s shares from market perform to outperform.

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​August 26

​DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
But the most interesting technical factor is that, On a Relative Basis compare to the SP500 Index, the DJ Industrials underperformed tremendously to reach levels not seen since March 2001! And it broke the previous lowest level reached back on January 2006...

Forget the Sept. '15 Fed Tightening –
​There Has Been a Stealth Tightening Since Sept. '14

The sum of banks’ cash reserves provided by the central bank and the loans and securities granted by the banking system. By my measure, the Fed has been gradually tightening its monetary policy at least since September 2014. Moreover, in recent months, Fed monetary policy has become downright restrictive.

Is Apple Inc. Too Dependent On The IPhone To Please Its Investors?
Currently the iPhone constitutes 68.6% of Apple’s earnings and is obviously the company’s Cash Cow.

​​​​​August 25

VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?
But the most interesting factor s is that the VIX broke a Major Resistance Trendline from a Falling Wedge Pattern that started back in December 2014.​​ ​ Also observe that the SP500 index is broke a Major Support Trendline from a Rising Wedge that started on February 25 2015.

SP500 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since Octover 2011 ?
That Indicator is in bearish mode and reached level not seen since ​ October 5 2011 when the Mighty SP500 was at 1165 level.

​​​​How Low-Volatility ETFs Can Protect You From Wild Market Swings
The price for a smoother ride is lower returns.

Apple's China syndrome: What the analysts are saying
​​The sell-side analysts are (mostly) trying to stay upbeat.

​​August 24

​​​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?
Most World Stock Markets were trading in a Rising Wedge Pattern on a Monthly Basis as shown by the charts below. Only the Nikkei is the survivor on that financial turmoil. Most of the others are already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern on the Support Trendlines of those Rising Wedges, IF they do close at those levels at the end of the month. IF so, will have the confirmation of a Major Technical Rejection; a previous False Break Out.

SP500 Financials (XLF) : Broken Rising Wedge ?
But the most interesting Technical Factor for me, ​it is that the ​SP500 Financials (XLF ETF)​ broke on August 21 a Major Support ​Trendline from a Rising Wedge then at 24.58 that started back on October 15 2014.

TSX Small Cap Index: Cratering ?
Last time we reached those levels was back in November 2009 on the TSX Small Cap Index.

​Risk Turns Risky: Unpleasant Skew, Scale Dilation, and Broken Lines
Valuations are the main driver of long-term returns, but the main driver of market returns over shorter horizons is the attitude of investors toward risk, and the most reliable way to measure this is through the uniformity or divergence of market internals. When market internals are uniformly favorable, overvaluation has little effect, and monetary easing can encourage further risk-seeking speculation. Conversely, when deterioration in market internals signals a shift toward risk-aversion among investors, monetary easing has little effect, and overvaluation can suddenly matter with a vengeance.

Has Apple hit bottom?
​Thirty eight analysts are maintaining price targets well above Friday’s close. Only one is still underwater.

​​August 20

ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
But the most interesting technical factor is that the ​ETFs Advance/ Decline​ Volume is within the oversold level as we are near a Major Support Trendline from a Rising Wedge on the SP500 Index and at the 200 DMA.

TSX60 Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Back into the oversold zone on that Canadian TSX60 Stock Index Indicator.

​​Blind Faith in China’s Stock Market
​The Chinese stock market has long been a policy-driven market, its ups and downs largely prompted by new government policies. Thus, the country finds itself in the bizarre situation of having a bear market when the economy is humming and a bull market when the economy is in the doldrums.

​​​​​What History Can Tell Us About Apple iPhone Sales This Quarter
​As the focus shifts from its recent report to the current quarter, there's ample evidence to suggest iPhones will once again help Apple shatter past records.

​​August 19

Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
But the most interesting tecnical factors are that we broke on the week of July 20 a Major Rising Wedge Pattern that started back in May 2009 but more importantly that we are near the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33 where we found in the past some support ( August 2009 and October 2011) for EEM ETF.

SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Outperformance vs SP500 ?

On a bigger picture, the XLY is back above a Riding Wedge Pattern that ​started on March 26 2015 as shown by the thick blue and red lines on the first chart below. It is also back above the 20 and 50 DMA...

More Risk, Less Reward: The Changing Market Environment
Over the past year, within many areas of the investable landscape, taking more risk has actually led to less reward.

As The iPhone 6S Approaches, Apple Still Beats Android In A Few Very Big WaysApple’s iPhone remains the handset to beat in an ever more-crowded smartphone marketplace. And with the iPhone 6S just around the corner, Apple is looking to steal the spotlight back from its rivals—especially the Galaxy S6, its palindromic nemesis.

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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​