FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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June 30

Russell 2000 vs SP500: Resistance Trendline Reached ?
But the real interesting part is that this ratio already Tested the Resistance Level ( On June 25 2015 ) from a Trendline that started on February 2012 and then can gives a real wall of Resistance to the Russell on a Relative Basis to the Mighty SP500.

SP500 Financials (XLF) : Broken Rising Wedge ?
...the ​SP500 Financials (XLF ETF)​ broke on June 29 a Major Support ​Trendline at 24.74 of a Rising Wedge that started back on October 15 2014..​​​

Stock Buybacks: Where Is The Incentive?
Compensation of executives at major public companies is predominately based on the value of their stock. The implications are not fully appreciated.

Morgan Stanley And UBS Expecting Apple To Sell 50 Million iPhones In The June Quarter Both Morgan Stanley and UBS use web search analysis to help them forecast how many iPhones Apple sells, and both have June quarter iPhone sales of 50 million partly based on the results. With a number of sell-side estimates at 50 million or slightly above I believe buy-side expectations are in the 52 to 53 million range.

​​​​​​​​​​June 29

Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Highest Ever ?
But the most interesting factor is that ​​the Ratio of the Mighty SP500 ETF IVV compare to the TLT ETF reached the highest level since 2007.In fact, the previous 2 times that this happened ( July 13 2007 and December 31 2013 )​, SP500 started a major correction in the following weeks.

​​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Rising ?
That Indicator is in bullish mode since June 18 and broke on the upside the 200 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) levels on the upside, another overbought sign.

The Healthcare Sector : Still Outperforming SP500 ?

And on May 22, the 20 DMA turned upward on ​this ratio ( XLV over SPX ), indicating an outperformance since then of ​the XLV ETF over the SP500 Index.​​ That ratio reached a new high ever on June 25 2015.​

Will S&P 500 Companies With Higher Global Exposure See Lower Earnings Growth in Q2?The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q2 2015 is -4.5%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings growth rate is 0.3%. For companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings decline is -11.4%.

China Mobile's 4G User Reacceleration Is Positive For Apple
After seeing its 4G subscriber growth slow substantially in April to 10.1 million new customers China Mobile reported that it added 17.2 million subscribers in May. This is positive for Apple AAPL -0.56% since China is a major growth driver for the iPhone.

​​​​​​​​​​​June 25

SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Failed to Break Out ?
But what is interesting indeed is that this ratio tested and rejected on June 23 the Resistance Trendline​​ that started on November 21 and the Mighty SP500 Index did not reach a Major Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully... Weakening Technicals to me still...

The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since May 2013 ?
The Industrial Sector ETF ( XLI ) started to underperform since ​May 13 ​​compare to ​the Mighty SP500... ​ The 21 Day Moving ​Average (DMA) on that​ ratio turned downward on May 12 - ​ ​meaning ​​the underperformance of XLI. ​ The last time this ratio ​reached that level of valuation was back in May 2013.​

Individual Stocks Struggling To Keep Up With Nasdaq Rally
We look at another example today in the number of New 52-Week Highs on the Nasdaq Exchange. While the Nasdaq Composite has been able to continually score new highs (including yesterday), the number of New Highs on the exchange has been unable to materially expand. In fact, the series recently reached a milestone. The number of Nasdaq 52-Week Highs has now gone more than 400 days without making a 52-Week High itself. Historically, this has been a relative rarity when the Composite was hitting new highs.


​Apple on pace to sell 53M iPhones in June quarter, Apple Watch demand sustaining 'healthy' levels
Demand for Apple's flagship iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus remains extremely strong, even as the product cycle begins to wind down, while consumer interest in the Apple Watch is outperforming the first iPhone, new data reveals.

​​​​​​​June 24

​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?
Previous peaks in the Mighty SP500 have been associated with higher level of SKEW - some protection needed. But today at almost the high ever on SP500 Index and the SKEW at the lowest since mid-October 2013 is quite an unusual behavior - too complacent market...

SP500 Utilities Sector Bullish % Index: Lowest of the past 5 Years ?
The main technical indicators like the moving average of the Bullish ​Percentage Index of the Utilities Sector are turning back with too more ​bearish conviction.
​​
​​Could This Be It?
Lastly, it is necessary to note that "reversions" do not occur without a catalyst. What will that catalyst be? I have no idea and nor does anyone else. It certainly appears that the threat of a global liquidity crunch from a Greek bankruptcy is of little concern and is already factored into the market.

​​​Study: Higher iPhone resale value in US and China suggests strong demand
Fresh data shows Apple's latest iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are reselling at comparatively higher prices than last year's iPhone 5s and 5c models did during the same post-launch period in 2014, suggesting demand for the handset has not waned.

​​​June 23

NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on February 2015 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Near Break Out ?
But what it is interesting to observe is that we had a false break ​out on April 27, on June 18 and 22 by the Consumer Discretionary Sector. ​​Nead a Daily close above 78.05 to confirm a Break Out.

​​All Their Eggs in Janet's Basket - John P. Hussman

More enlightened leaders at the Federal Reserve would never have allowed, much less intentionally encouraged, yet the third speculative episode in 15 years. Unfortunately, the idea that repeated cycles of malinvestment and yield-seeking speculation have actually been the cause of the nation’s economic malaise doesn’t seem to cross their minds.

​​Seven reasons I think Apple may become a bank within the next five years
Now that Apple Pay has launched, and already proven a big success, I think the argument for Apple to make the move are even stronger. So here are seven reasons I think Apple may become a bank within the next five years …
​​​​​​June 22

SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
The level of risk taking now according to that ratio is at the zone ​reached ​in mid-April 2015 and still falling.

The Material Sector (XLB): Outperformance Broken ?
But the most interesting Technical factor is that we broke the Support Trendline on that ratio (XLB over SPX).

Canadian and US Energy Sector: Canadian Oil Assets at Huge Discount ?
On a relative basis, the last time it was that cheap for the Canadian Oil Energy Sector was in July 2001.​​

Tech Companies Fly High on Fantasy Accounting
Investor enthusiasm for all things tech is understandable, given the disruptions the industry is bringing to so many businesses and the potential profits associated with that upheaval. But there’s a more troubling aspect of the current exuberance for technology stocks: the degree to which so many of the popular companies with premium-priced shares promote financial results and measures that exclude their actual costs of doing business.




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