FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

October 22

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index continue its grinding phase trade technical pattern; New High Ever on Low Volume... Euphoria Sentiment into the market...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) trading higher mainly on Banks stocks..​Softer Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will ​push the Bank of Canada to act cautiously going forward.
​​
A Bull Market in Complacency
​Bullish stock market sentiment has gotten extreme again, according to Investors Intelligence.

Trouble brewing in advance/decline lines?


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​​October 15

US Technical Charts Potpourri
Retail is still chasing Momentum and High Beta stocks in favor of Value stocks, a situation that is becoming quite speculative.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
The XIU ETF finally started to out perform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada softer tone 3 weeks ago bring the XIU back above the critical level of 22.78. Interest sensitive stocks (banks, utilities,...) and base metals helping tremendously on a short term basis​.

Why Market Valuations are Not Justified by Low Interest Rates  -  John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
​Based on the consensus of the most historically-reliable market valuation measures we identify, the U.S. equity market is now at the most offensive level of overvaluation in history, exceeding even the levels observed in 1929 and 2000. Because investors appear to have a speculative bit in their teeth, our very near-term outlook is rather neutral, allowing for both further speculation and abrupt market losses.

Can Stocks Avoid Unlucky (Year) Number 7?
The 4th quarter of years ending in “7″ have historically exhibited the stock market’s worst quarterly performance of the decadal cycle.

​​​​​​October 8

​US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The US stock market keep rising in a grinding way and reached new high ever last week on Trump tax proposal. Retail is chasing Momentum stocks in favor of Value stocks.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) trading higher mainly on Banks stocks..​Softer Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will push the Bank of Canada to act cautiously going forward.

“Most Hated” Rally Getting Record Love
​A recent reading in one broad measure of consumer stock market sentiment was among the most bullish in history.

According To Warren Buffett’s Own Methods Stocks Are Not At All
​‘Fairly-Priced Relative To Interest Rates’   

So investors can continue to believe the fairy tale that stocks are attractive relative to bonds but they should know that’s what it is: a fairy tale. The truth is these are lowest interest rates in 5,000 years of financial history and even in comparison to that incredible statistic, stocks are extremely expensive.

​​​​​October 1

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
​Simply stated, the Trumpification of Financial Markets in November 2016 (pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionism bias) repriced violently stocks vs bonds, US Dollar Index vs Gold...

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The US stock market keep rising in a grinding way and reached new high ever last week on Trump tax proposal.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF finally started to outperform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada softer tone last week bring the XIU back above the critical level of 22.78.

​​​
​​September 24

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index continue its grinding range trade technical pattern;​Within a Strong Price Compression phase from a Weekly Rising Wedge...
​​
Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF finally started to out perform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada hikes rates last week and was mainly beneficial to Banks stocks.

The Great Equity-For-Debt Swap
The ‘great shrinking stock market’ is almost exactly offset by the ‘massive growing corporate bond market’ and the end result is a sharp increase in corporate leverage.
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​​September 17

SP500: A Nervous SKEW and a Complacent VIX?
​That shows how Traders are not in full comfort mode (into a too low volatility environment and paying agressively for some options hedges) and still within a strong Complacent Phase for Market Participants...​

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index continue its range trade technical pattern; Within a Strong Price Compression phase from a Weekly Rising Wedge

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF continue to underperform tremendously the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada surprise us with a restrictive bias 15 weeks ago (mainly the interest sensitive sectors) with two rate hikes

​​​
​​September 10

US Stock Market History Valuations
​So it become clear to me that the tail risk that investors face right now is that easy money is behind us...

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​SP500 Index continue its range trade technical pattern;The correction is still more in time than in prices for now...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) consolidation continue on higher rates fear.​Stronger Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will continue ​push the BOC to act on rates going forward.
​  ​
​​September 3

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Uncertainties surrounding the US stock market is increasing technically speaking but the correction til now is more in time than in prices.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
The XIU ETF continue to underperform tremendously the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada surprise us with a restrictive bias 13 weeks ago (mainly the interest sensitive sectors) and NAFTA renegociation started.

​​
​​August 27

DJ Transportation ETF IYT: Divergence Prevail?
But most importantly, what puzzle me the most is that, that Big Divergence continue to prevail between Dow Jones Transportation the Dow Jones Industrials and the Mighty SP500 Index

​​US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index made a Daily Shooting Star on August 8;  ​it was an early ​signal of of a potential correction in the stock market.The correction is more in time than in prices for now

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) consolidation continue on higher rates fear.​Stronger Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will continue ​push the BOC to act on rates going forward
​​
​​August 20

US Technical Charts Potpourri
Uncertainties surrounding the US stock market is increasing technically speaking: Big capitalization outperforming, High beta stocks under performing and we had an Hinderburg Omen on August 17.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF continue to underperform tremendously the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada surprise us with a restrictive bias 11 weeks ago (mainly the interest sensitive sectors) and NAFTA renegociation started.






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