FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

November 19

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index is finally taking a pause awaiting more details on the critical Trump Tax Approval needed to keep the Bull trend...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF finally started to out perform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada softer tone 8 weeks ago bring the XIU back above the critical level of 22.78. Oil stocks still helping tremendously on a short term basis.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - November
​Cash levels have fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations to global equities have risen to the highest level in 2-1/2 years. In most respects, investors are now bullish.

5 Agents of Change Investors Need to Know About Now
​The world is changing fast right now in ways that many investors might not easily recognize or want to admit. This could end up being a costly mistake. If you’re not paying attention, you could be letting opportunities pass you by without even realizing it.

The Junkie Market, i.e., Lots Of Highs & Lows, Is Back
​ The past few days have seen a reversal from substantial net New lows to substantial net New highs – a condition that has preceded poor performance in the past.


​​​​​November 12

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 continue its grinding phase trade technical pattern; New High Ever Rejected with a Weekly Doji...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) trading higher mainly on Oil stocks..​Softer Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will ​push the Bank of Canada to act cautiously going forward

Why investors shouldn’t rely on sentiment indicators for market-timing
​‘Sentiment is a tricky thing’, says Bespoke’s macrostrategist Pearkes

Gundlach's Stock Market Warning Comes True
Deteriorating junk bonds threaten equity-market darlings. Correlation had reached most negative level in three years.

​​​6 of Last 8 Concurrent DJIA & S&P 500 Monthly Winning Streaks followed by Correction or Bear within a Year  ​If November or December turns out to be the month that ends the current streak, then mid-term year 2018 could be the host of the next correction or bear market.


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​​November 5

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Retail is still chasing Momentum and High Beta stocks in favor of Value stocks, a situation that is becoming quite speculative

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF finally started to out perform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada softer tone 6 weeks ago bring the XIU back above the critical level of 22.78. Interest sensitive stocks (banks, utilities,...) and oil stocks still helping tremendously on a short term basis.

November Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains Low
​ The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

​​The Global Equity Rally Is Getting ‘Extended’
The All-Country World Index is hitting a trio of key Fibonacci Extensions.

This Time Is Different, But Not How Investors Imagine It Is Different
​Market valuations, on these measures, presently approach or exceed the 1929 and 2000 extremes, placing U.S. equity market valuations at the most offensive levels in history.


​​​​​​October 29

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Euphoria Sentiment into the market coming mainly from Technology and Internet stocks​...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​Interest sensitive stocks (banks, utilities,...) and oil stocks helping tremendously on a short term basis.

Global debt hits record $226-trillion as central bank shift looms
​Global debt now amounts to 324 per cent of the world's annual economic output, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a report on Wednesday.


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​​October 22

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The SP500 Index continue its grinding phase trade technical pattern; New High Ever on Low Volume... Euphoria Sentiment into the market...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) trading higher mainly on Banks stocks..​Softer Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will ​push the Bank of Canada to act cautiously going forward.
​​
A Bull Market in Complacency
​Bullish stock market sentiment has gotten extreme again, according to Investors Intelligence.

Trouble brewing in advance/decline lines?

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​October 15


US Technical Charts Potpourri
Retail is still chasing Momentum and High Beta stocks in favor of Value stocks, a situation that is becoming quite speculative.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
The XIU ETF finally started to out perform the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) as the Bank of Canada softer tone 3 weeks ago bring the XIU back above the critical level of 22.78. Interest sensitive stocks (banks, utilities,...) and base metals helping tremendously on a short term basis​.

Why Market Valuations are Not Justified by Low Interest Rates  -  John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
​Based on the consensus of the most historically-reliable market valuation measures we identify, the U.S. equity market is now at the most offensive level of overvaluation in history, exceeding even the levels observed in 1929 and 2000. Because investors appear to have a speculative bit in their teeth, our very near-term outlook is rather neutral, allowing for both further speculation and abrupt market losses.

Can Stocks Avoid Unlucky (Year) Number 7?
The 4th quarter of years ending in “7″ have historically exhibited the stock market’s worst quarterly performance of the decadal cycle.

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​October 8


​US Technical Charts Potpourri
​The US stock market keep rising in a grinding way and reached new high ever last week on Trump tax proposal. Retail is chasing Momentum stocks in favor of Value stocks.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​Canadian Stocks (XIU ETF) trading higher mainly on Banks stocks..​Softer Canadian Economic data lately relative to the US will push the Bank of Canada to act cautiously going forward.

“Most Hated” Rally Getting Record Love
​A recent reading in one broad measure of consumer stock market sentiment was among the most bullish in history.

According To Warren Buffett’s Own Methods Stocks Are Not At All
​‘Fairly-Priced Relative To Interest Rates’   

So investors can continue to believe the fairy tale that stocks are attractive relative to bonds but they should know that’s what it is: a fairy tale. The truth is these are lowest interest rates in 5,000 years of financial history and even in comparison to that incredible statistic, stocks are extremely expensive.

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​October 1


Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
​Simply stated, the Trumpification of Financial Markets in November 2016 (pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionism bias) repriced violently stocks vs bonds, US Dollar Index vs Gold...

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