Always consider hidden risks
Desloges CFA is a professional investment consultant/ blogger/ trader
with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side. I
have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and
worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers. More...
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Insight April 24 Volatility: My Canary in the Coal Mine It is interesting to check the trend on a few Volatility Indexes on different asset classes. US Technical Charts Potpourri The Market still into a Correction process since SPY ETF broke its weekly support trendline Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri The XIU ETF is under performing the SP100 Index as the Energy and Material Sectors are into a downtrend technically speaking... How The Passive Investing Mania Undermined Its Most Basic Assumption I have argued that “passive investing” is an oxymoron because it denies precisely that which defines an investment: active analysis. Performance on Mondays & Fridays Key to Bull Market Survival When traders and investors are reluctant to hold positions over the weekend and fail to buy on the first trading day of the week, they are showing a lack of confidence. Is the US Stock Market at a Major Inflection Point? “Given that the primary trends are still up, the onus is on the bears at this point to prove that this is something more than just a consolidation,” Krinsky said. Are Bonds Headed Back To Extraordinarily Low Rate Regime? The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield has dropped back below the line containing the past decade’s “extraordinarily low-rate” regime. April 17 SP500 Market Internals at Technical Crossroads? That tells me how convinced (or complacent?) market participants are about the market potential in terms of risk reward on a short term basis. US Technical Charts Potpourri The Market into a Correction process since SPY ETF broke its weekly support trendline and as geopolitic risks rising tremendously lately... Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri The XIU ETF is out performing the SP100 Index as the Energy Sector is bouncing back technically speaking. How Dollar Moves Stocks; More Stockpicker Pain Donald Trump may want a weaker greenback, but U.S. stocks usually benefit when the currency rises. Searching for the Market Portfolio With the explosion of index ETF products and a sharp reduction in fees in recent years, the goal of approximating the market portfolio has become more attainable. Buy When There's Blood in the Streets? Market Timing with Volatility Triggers Market volatility has long been one of the most disruptive aspects to investing and investor behavior. April 10 When Stocks and Bonds Are On a Collision Course The strong rally in stocks lately has been enough in terms of valuation compare to interest rates. US Technical Charts Potpourri The Market in a Consolidation process as Trump start to feel the weight of politics and geopolitic risks rising tremendously... Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri XIU ETF is out performing the SP100 Index as the Energy and Material Sectors are bouncing back technically speaking April Macro Update: Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely How Concerning Is The Nasdaq’s Ugly-Looking Reversal? Wednesday’s reversal lower from 52-week highs in the Nasdaq looks ugly on the chart, but how ominous is it really? Who Carries The Burden of Proof? The idea that interest rates have nowhere to go but up is very much like saying the bond market has it all wrong April 3 Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. US Technical Charts Potpourri The Market in a Consolidation process as Trump start to feel the weight of politics and no new high yet on Major Indices on good economic numbers... Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri The XIU ETF is getting less volatile (VIX60C) than the SP100 Index (VIX) as the Canadian Banks started a consolidation phase... Market Returns Do Not Equal Investment Returns with Leveraged ETFs Warren Buffett once said, “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.” If we’re talking about ETFs, I am inclined to agree with him. Especially leveraged ETFs. High Number Of Consumers See Stock Rally As Sure Thing The percentage of respondents in UM’s survey of consumers who view a stock rally over the next 12 months as a “sure thing” is near record levels. Ending The Fed’s Drug Problem All the required evidence is openly available and quite satisfactorily voluminous so as to arrest the Fed’s sudden drug problem; we merely lack someone with the will and courage to use it already. March 27 DJ Transport ETF IYT: At Technical Crossroads? The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above the Major Support Trendline; failing to do so should bring a more severe correction phase on the other Stock Indices US Technical Charts Potpourri A few signs tells me to be cautious here: Trump start to feel the weight of politics, US Dollar Index (DXY) weaker and no new high yet on Major Indices on good economic numbers... Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri The XIU ETF is now less volatile (VIX60C) than the SP100 Index (VIX) as the US Stock Market started a correction phase... Capturing Mean Reversion Via Momentum For an investor the takeaway is good news... rather having to allocate to an underperforming asset class over the past x years, simply wait for that underperforming / cheap asset class to start performing well. A Big Tailwind for the Stock Market Has Now Dissipated Sentiment has turned bullish. Optimism towards the economy has surged to a 2-year high and profit expectations are near a 7-year high. As a result, global allocations to equities rose to a 2-year high in March and "risk appetite" is also at a 2-year high. All of this suggests the big tailwind for equities has now dissipated. The one remaining positive is the high cash balance at funds. The Inverse of Keynes In fundamental terms of earnings, there is only further confirmation of a lack of growth, both as a matter of the rebound from early 2016 as well as from the global slowdown in 2012. At $94.54, ttm EPS are almost exactly the same now as when QE3 started, and are only 6.8% more than Q1 2012 all those years ago! March 20 Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: The Apple Experiment? Apple Shares are testing a Major Relative Daily Resistance Zone with the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ. US Technical Charts Potpourri US Dollar weaknesses lately ain t good: We need to be cautious here... Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri The XIU ETF is still more Volatile than the SP100 Index as Financial, Energy and Materials under pressure last few weeks.... Surge in Global Economic Surprises, Business Confidence Continues From worst to first in one year for the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Do smart-beta investment funds work? As with all investment, it’s a question of timing
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