FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

January 16

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​As most of the participants are all in for US Financial Assets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) good behavior remains the key here...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is surprisingly more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because we had a breakout in the XIU ETF lately...

US 10 Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN): Large Spec Shortest Ever?
​Large Speculators' net bearish bets on U.S.10-year Treasury note futures (ZNH17) reached another record high ever with 394,689 contracts on January 10 2017...

Looking at the Four "Bull Market Checks": Trend, Momentum, Breadth, and Sentiment
​“After the run we had off the post-election lows, it’s not the worst thing to move sideways and work off some pretty extreme overbought conditions,” Krinsky said.

January expiration week turbulent last 18 years
​In the past eighteen years, the S&P 500’s performance has taken a turn for the worse with expiration day falling ten times with an average loss of .21% and the full-week declining 13 times with an average loss of 1.06%.

Stocks Are No Longer the Most Actively Traded Securities in Stock Markets
​Three out of 15 most traded securities are single stocks: CS

Treasury Bears Beware: Explosive Short-Covering Rally Coming Up
​According to the latest breakdown of short positions by Deutsche Bank, speculators increased their net shorts by $7.7 billion in 10Y cash equivalents to $99.4 billion, a third successive week of record low positions.


​​January 11

Russell 2000 (TWOK ETF): At Technical Crossroads?
​We are now back testing that Major Trendline (now Support) so critical for Bulls to protect...

US Treasury Bond TLT ETF: A Stealth Move?
​We are now into a Stealth Grinding Move since bottoming out on December 14 2016 and closed above the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) the first time September 29 2016!​

​​​How Did We Get 2016 So Wrong?
​Go through the late 2015/early 2016 articles published on this and similar sites and you'll find a consensus that 2016 was going to be a really bad year...

Trump rally starting to thin out
​Despite the recent string of Nasdaq new highs, more stocks have been declining than advancing.

Why You Might Want To Prepare Your Portfolio For A Time ‘When Doves Cry’
​The total value of corporate debt and equity relative to gross value added is now just as high as it was back then during the peak of the dotcom bubble...

Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated
​What is remarkable is the sharp rise in the real 10-year yields since the election.

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​​January 9

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​As most of the participants are all in in US Stocks, the US Dollar Index good behavior remains the key here...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​​​The XIU ETF is surprinsingly underperforming the SPY ETF (+5.8% vs +6.1%) since November 8 2016 with overweight in Financials (40.89% of XIU), Energy (21.39%) and Base Metals (10.47%).

US 10 Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN): Technical Analysis

Why January is still the most important month
​This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.

It’s Time to Ignore Advice About Which Stocks to Buy in 2017
​The portfolios of stocks they were telling you to buy generally did much worse than the stock market over all.

Shoo away the black swans with 5 positive potential outcomes that could boost your portfolio
​Here are HSBC Bank Plc’s six positive developments that could take place over the course of this year, as well as their implications for different asset classes.

Using The Metal Markets to Forecast The Direction of Interest Rates
​In summary, copper and gold have a high correlation to interest rates...


​​​​​December 15

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Stairway to Heaven?
​Simply stated, I think that the SP500 Index is becoming more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar Index Behavior in terms of trend and mainly in terms of Volatility

Forget 20K – THIS Is The Stock Market Level To Watch
​An approaching level in a lesser-known stock index is, in our view, much more consequential than the widely anticipated Dow 20,000 mark.

US Federal Reserve raises interest rates: what happens next?
​The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the second time in a decade.

What It Means That The Fed Declares That It Is Done
​For the past several years, the Fed’s models have been reducing estimates for its version of “trend”, the long run tendency for real GDP growth.

75 charts every Canadian should watch in 2017
​For the third year in a row Maclean’s asked economists, investors, analysts and financial commentators to submit what they think will be an important chart Canadians should watch in the year ahead...

​​​​December 12

SP100 Index: When Generals don t Lead
We have now Generals that do not lead the market at all but small capitalization stocks. That tells me a more broad base rally instead of a classic Institutional Investors big cap rally. As the retail investor is chasing aggressively that rally, the CNN Fear and Greed Index reached the Extreme Greed Zone last Friday of 87...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​​​The XIU ETF is surprinsingly underperforming the SPY ETF (+4.3% vs +5.8%) since November 8 2016 with overweight in Financials (40.76% of XIU), Energy (21.24%) and Base Metals (10.25%).

​​Active Managers Move Back ‘All In’ On Stocks
​Active managers have adopted an average of over 100% exposue to stocks; such exuberance has not been necessarily represented a poor bet in the past, however.

The Trump Train Continues To Roll
​While the “Trump Rally” has pushed asset prices higher and triggered a corresponding “buy signal,” that signal has been triggered at very high levels combined with a very overbought condition. Historically, rallies following such a combination have not been extremely fruitful.”

The three coolest studies of 2016
​While much of the content of these studies is inaccessible to most of us,their conclusions are often provocative, important and ignored. Why ignored? Because folks from large, asset-obsessed organizations don’t want to talk about it and journalists, who mostly need 500 catchy words by this afternoon, can’t talk about it.

How to Play the Trump Stock Market Rally
But after more than a month of this rally, value-minded investors think it may be time to start looking for bargains in areas of the market that have been left behind.

​​​​December 7

Russell 2000 (TWOK ETF): New High Ever!
​Few of us realize that the TWOK ETF Breakout happened earlier than the SPY ETF...

Technically Speaking: Will Santa Come To Broad & Wall?
​With the market now back to overbought conditions, it is now or never for the traditional “Santa Rally.”

Does This Signal Mean Smooth Sailing For Santa Rally?
​The VIX just notched a 3-month low; previous occurrences in early December have been generous to stock investors.

Diversification Is No Fun
​Diversification is not fun, but intelligent investing shouldn’t be about having fun.

The Variable-Rate World Stares Into The Abyss - Again
Add it all up and a picture emerges of a system that can't handle rising interest rates, but is nonetheless getting them. The result? At best a global slowdown and at worst an epic crisis. Wonder how the world's governments will respond?

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