FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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August 3

SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
Even if past performance is not indicative of future results, it is good to ​know that over the past 5 years, the month of August have been the second ​worst month in term of monthly performance for the Mighty SP500 Index...

SP500 Utilities Sector Bullish % Index: From the Abyss ?
That % indicator on Utilities ​Stocks reached a level ​of 40.0% level at then ​end of June 2105, ​the ​Lowest ​​of the past 5 Years.

TSX Small Cap Index: Cheapest since December 2008 ?
​​But one ​crucial Technical factor ​​is that we failed yet to get above the 200 DMA ​on that ratio (Small Cap
​over the ​TSX). We are on a relative basis the ​cheapest we ever been ​since ​December 2008.​


A Bad Equilibrium & How Speculative Distortion Ends - John P. Hussman
Put simply, the recent market peak represents the second most overvalued point in history for the capitalization-weighted stock market, and the single most overvalued point in history for the broad market. ​​​​

​​​​​Tim Cook, Give Me A Reason To Buy Apple
The reality is simple, Apple is not performing as it should due to a combination of Tim Cook over promising and under delivering and lack of truly new products hitting the consumer market. Tinkering with size and shape of the current stable of products, upgrades of the current operating systems and the continuation of developing and adding best apps in the world do not fit the “best new product pipeline” quote.

​​
​​July 30

SP500 and Russel1000 Financial and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?
But the most interesting factor is the correlation between the Mighty SP500 Index with the US Dollar Index (DXY)​​. And we are into the zone where we usually at risk to see a short term market pressure as history suggest.

The Semiconductor Sector ( SMH ) : Cheapest since October 2014 ?
The Semiconductor Sector start to underperform tremendously ​since ​May 29 2015 ​compare to the Mighty SP500... ​​And the ​21 DMA did turn downward on June 24. It is now at the cheapest level on a relative basis since October 2014.

August: Once the best, now the worst month
Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year.

Can Apple beat the Tough Compare?
In Fortune’s survey of Apple price targets, 36 of 38 analysts thought it could. Here’s what the other two are saying.


​​​​​​​​​July 29

DJ Transports: Break Out or Fade ?
We could be near the Break Out Phase: 1) ​​DJ Transports near breaking the resistance trendline from a downward channel that started back on March 20 2015. Also near breaking the 50 DMA at 8316.97 as of July 28 closing price... ​​2) We already are above the 50 DMA on the Ratio of the DJ Transports over DJ Industrials... 3) We are near testsing the 50 DMA on the Ratio of DJ Transport over the SP500 Index...

Canadian and US Energy Sector: Canadian Oil Assets at Huge Discount ?
But for a long term play, we need a confirmation that we break on the upside the 50 DMA​​ ( Day Moving Average )...

Several Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks
When investor sentiment reaches extreme levels, it can be a contrary indicator for the stock market...

​​​​What Apple, Said About China on Its Latest Earnings Call
Cook's main defense of Apple in China may have come when he talked about how the country's middle class is growing....

​​​July 28

China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
Also observe that this ratio ( CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX ) is almost at the higher level of the past 3 years - telling me that the level of speculation is still quite high....

Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial Ratio: At Crossroads ?
But the most interesting factor is that we are testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on October 10 ​2014 on that ratio​​ ( Russell 2000 over DJ Industrial ). The Russell 2000 is definitively at Crossroads now...​​

S&P 500 Propped Up by Just 2 Sectors Shows Bull Market Aging
More than 100 percent of this year’s increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Apple's Gross Margins Were Impacted By The Watch
One of the analysis I do on Apple’s finances every quarter is to adjust the company’s reported gross margin for its warranty accruals. Apple’s warranty charges have ranged from 0.9% to 3.7% of total revenue since fiscal 2007. I believe it is worthwhile to understand the changes and dynamics to them as it provides insight into what are the “true” costs of Apple’s products.

​​​​​​​July 27

SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
Observe also that we came back near the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving ​Average ) where past reversal occured.

​​​​TSX Index Bull% Index: Weakest Bullish Sentiment since December 2014 ?
But the most interesting is that on July 24, we did have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) getting below the 200 DMA: a Death Cross Technical Pattern.​​ Also we are at the Major Support Trendline that started back in October 2014: the TSX is at crossroads here...

​​The Material Sector (XLB): Cheapest since July 2003 ?
The Material Sector ETF ( XLB ) broke on June 24 a Wedge Pattern that started ​on February 25 2015.
On July 24, it also broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on February 5 2015, a bad technical sign.


Memorize This, Earn a Dollar - John P. Hussman

Put simply, valuation drives long-term returns, and investor risk-preferences drive returns over shorter portions of the market cycle. When measures of both are hard-negative, as they are now, investors should think carefully about their own risk-tolerance and their ability to sustain losses without abandoning their discipline, making sure to align their investments with the actual horizon over which they will need to spend the funds.

Opinion: Here’s why Apple can take a bite out of your funds and ETFs
‘If you have two or three growth funds, there’s a good chance you own more Apple than you expect.’
Todd Rosenbluth


​​​​​​​July 23

SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?
The option market is telling us to expect the market to an atypical return profile since the SKEW is spiking since July 7 and that the 20 and 50 DMAs ( Day Moving Averages ) are heading higher. The 20 DMA on the SKEW ( Red Line on the chart below ) is reaching levels not seen since Mid-March 2015 and at near levels where we had previous corrections on the SP500.

Gold Miners Bullish % Index: Almost at Zero ?
That % indicator on Gold Miners Stocks is near reaching again a ​level near the 0% treshold like in November and December 2014.

Sexy Janet's Dollar Problem
The overvalued currency essentially subsidises the efforts of foreign competitors to establish a US beachhead and expand from there. This is particularly acute in manufacturing.


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