FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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May 1

NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
Observe also the divergence between the Summation Index and the SP500: ​​A Lower High from March 2015 til now on the Summation index but a new High on the SP500 lately.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broke the 20 DMA And 50 DMA on Apple - AAPL On April 30, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $127.40 and the 50 DMA then at $127.18.

​​​​Bad sign? Retail investors all in: TD Ameritrade
A broad look at the 6.5 million customer accounts at TD Ameritrade indicates that retail investors are "pretty fully invested" in stocks, the online brokerage's CEO said Thursday.

Why Apple Is Going To Make A Killing On Apple Watch
Customers are dropping hundreds of dollars on their Apple Watch. But Apple may be spending considerably less to build it, according to a teardown performed by IHS. The estimated hardware costs of the Apple Watch Sport come in at $83.70, only 24 percent of its sale price, says a preliminary estimate by IHS’ Mobile Teardown Handset Intelligence Service.

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​April 30

DJ Transport: My Broken 200 DMA ?
But the real worry is that we are near breaking the multiple lows in the DJ Transport.

​​​​​​​The Material Sector (XLB): Outperforming SP500 ?
The Material Sector ETF ( XLB ) started to outperform ​​since ​March 20​ ​compare to ​the Mighty SP500 and the ​21 DMA ​(Day Moving Average) ​​ turned ​upward on April 16. ​

Why U.S. stocks are near highs even as fund investors flee
U.S. equities see eighth week of fund outflows
​​
Apple Earns Several More Price Target Increases

Apple's biggest bear counters the overwhelming number of bullish reports with warnings about overreliance on China and iPhone sales.

​April 29

SP500 and Emerging Markets ( IVV - EEM ): EEM Finally Outperform ?
But the Real Major Reversal will be when we finally break the downward channel on that ratio thta started back in October 2010.

Technical Observation of the Day: Bearish Engulfing on Apple - AAPL

​On April 28, Apple Shares made a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. ​a bad technical sign. ​Closing price was $130.56.

​How Smart are “Smart Beta” ETFs?
​The “secret sauce” of smart beta is its use of alternative weighting schemes to capture premiums associated with factors such as size, value, momentum, low volatility, and so on.

Why Apple Should Have Inverted Its Dividend and Buyback Priorities
Apple may have pleased investors initially with its earnings report this week. The problem in Tim Cook’s capital return plan may simply be that Apple is just too focused on buybacks rather than on dividends.

​​​​​​April 28

​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?
One very interesting factor is the divergence between the ETF s Volume Adv/Del and SP500.

The Healthcare Sector : Broken 20 DMA ?

The XLV ETF broke on the downside on April 27 the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 73.39. Closing price on April 27 was 73.04.

From Ice Patch to Soft Patch
The performance of the US stock market is quite impressive considering that there isn’t much of a spring in the latest batch of economic indicators. The winter’s ice patch is looking more and more like the spring’s soft patch--all the more reason to expect either one-and-done or none-and-done from the Fed.

​​​​Apple’s Earnings Surge, as iPhone Sales Jump and China Business Rises
The company said on Monday that quarterly iPhone sales in greater China, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, had surpassed those in Apple’s home market, the United States, for the first time.

​​​April 27

The VIX/Gold Correlation US$ SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?

As shown by the charts below, this correlation tells that the risks have not started ​to be fully priced into the foreign exchange market yet in terms of volatility: expect more volatility in the US Dollar and SP500 in the next few sessions...​​

​SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Break Out ?
But what it is interesting to observe is that we had a break out on SP500 Index on April 23rd and followed on April 24 by the Consumer Discretionary Sector.
​ ​
​TSX Index Bull% Index: Strongest Bullish Sentiment since October 2014 ?
Also observe the Rising Wedge on the TSX. Will be the next big catalyst when broken...

Volume Data Have Eased One Concern
But we also like to see the volume data confirming what we see in the A-D numbers. In late 2014, it was somewhat concerning to see the daily UV-DV Line not confirming the new highs in the A-D Line. But that conflict has now been resolved, as both have pushed ahead to higher highs.

Apple Q215 Earnings Preview: Strong Quarter Driven By iPhone In China
The iPhone will be the primary focus as investors look for any indication of continued above average sales trends compared to previous iPhone cycles. While recent iPhone sales share in the U.S. and Europe appear slightly ahead of previous years, strong sales in China will be the primary driver behind 35% growth in iPhone unit sales.

​​​​April 24

VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
Also observe that the SP500 index broke on April 23rd an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started since February 25 2015 but still far of breaking the Major Rising Wedge that started on October 2015.
So in summary, a Skirmish was won by the Bulls but the battle is still on for a Real Break Out.​
At those level, there is absolutely no Fear being priced into the Market.


The View at 30,000 Feet
​The weight of the evidence suggests that equity investors should have a bullish bias until trendline supports are violated.

​Apple’s Q2 Earnings Will Be All About China
​We believe that iPhone sales in Greater China will be the biggest driver of quarterly earnings given the Chinese New Year shopping season that occurred in February, China Mobile’s rapid 4G user additions and an improved supply-demand balance for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, both of which remained undersupplied over the previous quarter.

​​​​​​April 23

SP500: High Beta-Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Highest since Sept 2014 ?

It does tell us that the Risk Taking Behavior is getting a lot stronger ​since the Break Out of a Resistance Trendline on April 7.







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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​