FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

February 27

DJ Transport ETF IYT: Can you give me a Break?
The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above The Major Resistance Trendline

​​​US Technical Charts Potpourri
A stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) remains the key here...​

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is still more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because Financials within the XIU ETF (42.1%) made a Weekly Bearish Engulfing Technical Pattern


​​​​February 20

​SP500: A Nervous SKEW with Complacent VIX?
​​That shows how Traders are not in full comfort mode (into a too low volatility environment and paying aggressively for some options hedges).

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Another Trump Headline (potential tax cuts) two weeks ago gave some push to new highs on stocks and a reversal with a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY): good behavior remains the key here...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is surprisingly still more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because we have more Financials in the XIU ETF and US foreign policies uncertainties rising tremendously

The Reflationary Window: Open How Wide For How Long?
​But the global profit recovery is real, for the coming few quarters at least, supporting our cyclically bullish stance on global equities through the coming 12 months.

Don’t Bank On This Breakout
​The recent breakout in financials is occurring right into potential chart resistance.

OBI-ED'S MAGICAL INDICATOR
​Raw industrial commodities are the Obi-wan Kenobi of this indicator.

For BlackRock, This Is The Red Flag Among Record Low Volatility
​With both volatility and asset correlations near all time lows...

Connecting the Dots - 2/16/17
​The US dollar index appears to be working towards a breakdown of its own along similar folds, despite the markets attention with new highs.

​​​
​February 16

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Melt Up Phase?
​The stock market remains in a very atypical behavior as momentum seems more important that value investing.

US Treasury Bond TLT ETF: Critical Week?
​Testing the Support Side of a more recent Wedge so critical for Bulls to hold on a shorter term basis.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - February
The US is the most overweighted equity market on a relative basis. Emerging markets are the most underweighted. Fund managers' allocations to global bonds are now at prior capitulation lows.

The Bull Market No One Believes In
Melt-ups have a way of surprisingly even the bulls in how high they carry the market averages before peaking.

​​February 13

SP100 Index: When Generals don t Lead
​As the retail investor is chasing aggressively that rally into more illiquid technology stocks, the market becomes more vulnerable when/IF we will have a correction.

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​Another Trump Headline (potential tax cuts) gave some push to new highs on stocks and a reversal with a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY): good behavior remains the key here.

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is surprisingly more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because we have more Financials in the XIU ETF and US foreign policies uncertainties rising...

Low QQQ Volume a Sign of a Top
​But the interpretation task for the moment is to observe that volume numbers are low, and thus top-worthy.

Bubbles, Money and the VIX
​The VIX clearly does not reflect global political and geopolitical uncertainties. Instead, it's more a reflection of robust global "money" and Credit growth and the perception that central bankers will ensure ongoing monetary inflation while backstopping global securities markets.

Investors: Stick With Bonds Now And Forever, Here's Why
​In my portfolio construction calculus, high quality bonds serve two basic functions: they produce income and provide a very important ballast against negative market surprises.

​​​​February 8

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Price Compression?
​As geo-political risks is on the rise, market behavior is still on the complacency side...

Canadian Bonds ETF XBB: Stealth Grind?
​It could become a significant change for the Canadian Bond Market indeed if broken this week.

TAKING STOCK OF TECHNICALS AND SENTIMENT
But given broad technical strength, we would expect any near-term market declines to potentially be shallow and short lived, and would likely view them as buying opportunities.
​​
Are The World’s Greatest Value Investors Bearish?
If you want to know what someone really thinks about the stock market, look at their recent portfolio transactions. What can we learn from recent moves made by two of the world’s most respected value investors?

The Trump Card
​Perhaps ironically, the stock market may be more inclined to undergo a long-needed unwind of its excesses and in quicker fashion under the new, more free market-oriented administration.

​​February 6

Financial Sector ETF (XLF) : Market Faith in Anxious Times?
​​​​As the Trump administration is looking at deregulation, the Financial Sector could be back as the lead in the broad stock market potential new highs.

US Technical Charts Potpourri
​As most participants are all in for US Financial Assets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) good behavior remains the key here... Which is not the case...

Canadian Technical Charts Potpourri
​The XIU ETF is surprisingly more volatile (VIX60C) than the SP500 Index (VIX); maybe because we have more Financials in the XIU ETF and US foreign policies uncertainties...

Why Stock Market Volatility Isn't Really as Low as It Appears
​S&P 500 3-month implied correlation at lowest on record

A-D Line New High
​But the message from the strong A-D Line is that the risks of a big price drawdown during this upcoming corrective period are pretty minimal.

February Macro Update: Strong Start to 2017
​The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

3 Popular Investment Strategies That Will Look Idiotic 30 Years From Now

February 1

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
​​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index is still the hidden risk here...

Stock market: US/stocks the view from 30000 feet
​Three positive developments remain in place...

Big Test For Small Risk-On Leader
​Small-Cap Pure Value stocks – a fair barometer of investor risk appetite – are testing key support.







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