TRADING APPLE

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APPLE Daily Technicals   
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December 4 - Executive Summary - Weekly Channel ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.
NEW PAGES starting December 7
Technical Challenge:
​Close below $116.97 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
All of that Volatility but we remain into a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance. Yesterday we had on SPY a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, so a rejection a new highs for now.
As a Reminder coming from the Weekly Research: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
​​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 3 til December 19
2) Tiny ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 19 til December 31
Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.33 for today at all costs​.
​Still Expect again a Volatile trading environment...


The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds on Decmber 3. A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on SPY.
​​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.

We are challenging on Apple Shares the Weekly Support Trendline at $115.74.

The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options magnet is between the $115 and $116 handles today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.31 to MAX $118.07.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.35  then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.22 to MAX $113.51.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014  - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3. 


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​2) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​3) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
4) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​5) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;  (from  -0.44 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a newdowntrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 3 a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​


Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.31 max $118.07 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.97 but above $115.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​22 max $113.51.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.50 - $117.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.65 and $114.22 and $113.51      Resistance :​​ $116.97 and  $117.31 and $118.07

NFP MACRO LEVELS​
​​​​​​​Support : $113.51 and $112.27 and $111.00      Resistance :​​ $116.97 and $118.07 and $119.75


​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

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​​​

​​




RATIO AAPL​ Stock over SPX ( Grey Line)
SP500 Index ( Candles )


​ AAPL​ Stock Price Daily  ( Daily Candle Chart )

AAPL Relative Volatility ( Candle Chart )
​7 DMA ( Yellow Line )

AAPL​ Stock Price Daily ( Weekly Candle Chart )




​​​December 4 - Executive Summary - Weekly Channel ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.
NEW PAGES starting December 7
Technical Challenge:
​Close below $116.97 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
All of that Volatility but we remain into a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance. Yesterday we had on SPY a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, so a rejection a new highs for now.
As a Reminder coming from the Weekly Research: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
​​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 3 til December 19
2) Tiny ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 19 til December 31
Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.33 for today at all costs​.
​Still Expect again a Volatile trading environment...

The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds on Decmber 3. A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on SPY.
​​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.

We are challenging on Apple Shares the Weekly Support Trendline at $115.74.

The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options magnet is between the $115 and $116 handles today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.31 to MAX $118.07.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.35 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.22 to MAX $113.51.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​2) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​3) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
4) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​5) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.44 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a newdowntrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 3 a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.31 max $118.07 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.97 but above $115.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​22 max $113.51.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.50 - $117.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.65 and $114.22 and $113.51 Resistance :​​ $116.97 and $117.31 and $118.07

NFP MACRO LEVELS​
​​​​​​​Support : $113.51 and $112.27 and $111.00 Resistance :​​ $116.97 and $118.07 and $119.75
December 3 - Executive Summary - Still in the Channel ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $117.97 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Price action of Apple Shares outperformance bring a total decorrelation with the Mighty SP500.​
On November 25 I wrote: Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...
​Now at -0.44, rarely seen a total decorrelation like that. ​Probably that is because SPY is in a Break Out Mode since Dec 1 but need a close above 210.17 today.
​​Risk is within the next few trading sessions of having a reversal and see Apple Shares outperforming SPY and then resuming expected seasonals pattern.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have been rejecting the resistance zone on Apple Shares ($118.31 to $120.25 ) as SPY broke out.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.27 for today at all costs​.
Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Expect again a Volatile trading environment...

All of that Volatility but we remain into a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance. Yesterday we had on SPY a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, so a rejection a new highs for now.

As a Reminder coming from the Weekly Research: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
​​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 3 til December 19
2) Tiny ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 19 til December 31

Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.33 for today at all costs​.
​Still Expect again a Volatile trading environment...

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.65, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.41 to MAX $119.41.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.95 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.33 to MAX $114.10.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.08 to -0.44). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.95 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.65 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.49 max $119.11 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.65 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.65 but above $115.95 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.95 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​33 max $114.10.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.00 - $117.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.76 and $115.95 and $115.33 Resistance :​​ $117.65 and $118.41 and $119.41
December 2 - Executive Summary - Total Decorrelation ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $117.97 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Month end was on higher volume and International selling as US Dollar is quite strong.
Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 3, Convictions is low here: strategy is selling upwave near Dec 3 to buyback near Dec 15...​ Being so close of December 3, I will turn Neutral if a close above $118.78 because I want to avoid a Saloon s Door Experiment.
​We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.33 support and $118.78 as resistance in a ping pong style.
We tested again the resisitance trendline yesterday then at $118.93 and failed to close above it...
​​Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up...
​So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.
​​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25
Price action of Apple Shares outperformance bring a total decorrelation with the Mighty SP500.​

Price action of Apple Shares outperformance bring a total decorrelation with the Mighty SP500.​
On November 25 I wrote: Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

Now at -0.44, rarely seen a total decorrelation like that. ​Probably that is because SPY is in a Break Out Mode since Dec 1 but need a close above 210.17 today.
​​Risk is within the next few trading sessions of having a reversal and see Apple Shares outperforming SPY and then resuming expected seasonals pattern.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have been rejecting the resistance zone on Apple Shares ($118.31 to $120.25 ) as SPY broke out.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.27 for today at all costs​.
Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Expect again a Volatile trading environment...

​​​​IF we do close today above $117.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.49 to MAX $119.41.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.11 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $115.27.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.08 to -0.44). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$116.11 support and $118.49 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.49 max $119.11 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.97 but above $116.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​50 max $115.27.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.80 - $118.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.86 and $116.11 and $115.27 Resistance :​​ $117.97 and $118.49 and $119.41

​​December 1 - Executive Summary - Seasonals ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $118.78 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 1
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
For those who did not read my Weekly Research yet: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
So according to history ( Average of the past 5 years), Apple peak price is reached on December 3rd...
​ ​​Expect only Tiny Asset Mix Rebalancing this month end as the performance between Apple Shares​​ and stocks since October 30 are too close: AAPL -0.99% and SP500 Index +0.52%.
We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.54 support and $118.93 as resistance in a ping pong style.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.
​​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25

Month end was on higher volume and International selling as US Dollar is quite strong.
Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 3, Convictions is low here: strategy is selling upwave near Dec 3 to buyback near Dec 15...​ Being so close of December 3, I will turn Neutral if a close above $118.78 because I want to avoid a Saloon s Door Experiment.

​We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.33 support and $118.78 as resistance in a ping pong style.
We tested again the resisitance trendline yesterday then at $118.93 and failed to close above it...

​Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up...
​So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.
​​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25

Price action of Apple Shares outperformance bring a total decorralation with the Mighty SP500.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $118.78, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.81.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.33 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $115.23.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.55 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.16 to -0.08). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$116.33 support and $118.78 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.33 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.78 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.78 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $118.78 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.78 but above $116.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.33 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​50 max $115.23.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.60 - $119.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.60 and $116.33 and $115.23 Resistance :​​ $118.78 and $120.25 and $121.81
November 30 - Executive Summary - Month End ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $118.93 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​November 30
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Not much have changed for me except the Market is Losing Momentum with lower Volume but seasonsals are bullish til November 29...
​We did test almost the top of the Channel on November 25 then at $119.35 and corrected violently.
​We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.82 support and $119.23 as resistance in a ping pong style.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.
​​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25
Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...
The least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is at the $117 handle for today with an early close at 1 pm NY Time... Today s illiquidity can bring weird stock behavior.

For those who did not read my Weekly Research yet: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
So according to history ( Average of the past 5 years), Apple peak price is reached on December 3rd...

​​Expect only Tiny Asset Mix Rebalancing this month end as the performance between Apple Shares​​ and stocks since October 30 are too close: AAPL -0.99% and SP500 Index +0.52%.

We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.54 support and $118.93 as resistance in a ping pong style.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.
​​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $118.93, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.81.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.54 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $115.13.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.66 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.95 to 0.16). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$116.54 support and $118.93 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.93 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.93 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $118.93 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.93 but above $116.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​50 max $115.13.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.00 - $118.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.12 and $116.54 and $115.13 Resistance :​​ $118.41 and $118.93 and $120.25
​​November 27 - Executive Summary - Downtrend Channel ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $119.23 on a Daily close.


​November 27
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Well I was expecting a Tiny Correction and it did not last more than one trading session: quite resilient that market. We did test the bottom of the Channel yesterday then at $117.14 and rebounded violently.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals. Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.
​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25
Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

​Not much have changed for me except the Market is Losing Momentum with lower Volume but seasonsals are bullish til November 29...

​We did test almost the top of the Channel on November 25 then at $119.35 and corrected violently.
​We are still within a downtrend channel with ​$116.82 support and $119.23 as resistance in a ping pong style.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals.

​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25
Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

The least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is at the $117 handle for today with an early close at 1 pm NY Time... Today s illiquidity can bring weird stock behavior.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $119.23, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.81.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.82 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $115.05.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.67 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$116.82 support and $119.23 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.82 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.23 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.23 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $119.23 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $119.23 but above $116.82 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.82 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​50 max $115.05.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.00 - $119.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.82 and $115.50 and $115.05 Resistance :​​ $118.35 and $119.23 and $120.25
November 25 - Executive Summary - Tiny Correction short lived ?

​​We did close above the $118.07 level on Nov 24, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $118.07 on a Daily close.


​November 25
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
As I wrote in the past few days, that Goldman story bring an unexpected and too quick bullish move compare to the Mighty SP500 Index; we are just in a tiny correction as seasonsals remains Bullish for Apple Shares:
Rejecting also the strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25 is not a big surprise.
We should find support at the support zone between $115.50 and $116.89 and rebound from there UNLESS SPY start a correction; 208.46 to watch for today on a daily close.​​​
Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...
​​
Well I was expecting a Tiny Correction and it did not last more than one trading session: quite resilient that market. We did test the bottom of the Channel yesterday then at $117.14 and rebounded violently.

Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines: Volatility will pick up... So expect a choppy market and potential false trading signals. Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​Next Battle for Bulls is that strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25

Still: Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $121.81 to MAX $122.69.
​​​​IF we do close today below $118.07 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.93 to MAX $115.50.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.59 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.95 to 0.96). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$116.93 support and $119.35 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $118.07 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.81 max $122.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.07 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $118.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​93 max $115.50.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.00 - $119.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.07 and $116.93 and $115.50 Resistance :​​ $119.35 and $120.25 and $121.81
​​​November 24 - Executive Summary - Tiny Correction ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 23, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $118.07 on a Daily close: The 20 DMA.


​November 24
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
As mentioned in my Weekly Research ( for those who did not have the chance to read it ):
​Big Picture: PVTs: A Weak Rally ?
Having Rallys with weaker Volumes and Corrections with stronger Volumes is not a good Market Behavior as we have seen since August 2015.
​​SPY ETF and Apple Shares are getting into a strong resistance zone:
​Next Battle for the Bulls on AAPL will be the $118.31 to the $120.25 strong resistance zone...​​
​​Also, staying above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $118.07 is the first line of Defense for Bulls that they need to protect. So like I wrote last Friday, we re already into a Greed Phase.
​Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

As I wrote in the past few days, that Goldman story bring an unexpected and too quick bullish move compare to the Mighty SP500 Index; we are just in a tiny correction as seasonsals remains Bullish for Apple Shares:
Rejecting also the strong resistance zone between $118.31 to $120.25 is not a big surprise.

We should find support at the support zone between $115.50 and $116.89 and rebound from there UNLESS SPY start a correction; 208.46 to watch for today on a daily close.​​​

Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $118.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $119.23 to MAX $120.25.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.33 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $114.97.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.95). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on Nov 20 with ​$117.14 support and $119.51 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.33 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.23 max $120.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.07 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.31 but above $116.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.33 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​50 max $114.97.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.30 - $118.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.14 and $116.33 and $115.50 Resistance :​​ $118.31 and $119.23 and $120.25
​November 23 - Executive Summary - Resistance Zone ?

​​We did close above the $114.56 level on Nov 18, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $118.07 on a Daily close: The 20 DMA.


​November 23
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
On SPY: we are in a Range Trade Pattern til November 23rd and near the high side of that Range. Next battle for Bulls on SPY is the Previous Break Down Trendline at 209.72 on a Daily close.
​​Yesterday, we reached intraday at some point Apple Shares Outperformance vs the Mighty SP500 Index up +3.2% conapre to the history from rom November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2%. We are getting already into the Greed Phase....
The least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet​​ is at the $116 handle. Significant Risk today.
​Next Battle for the Bulls will be the $118.31 to the $120.25 strong resistance zone...​​
​​
As mentioned in my Weekly Research ( for those who did not have the chance to read it ):
​Big Picture: PVTs: A Weak Rally ?
Having Rallys with weaker Volumes and Corrections with stronger Volumes is not a good Market Behavior as we have seen since August 2015.

​​SPY ETF and Apple Shares are getting into a strong resistance zone:
​Next Battle for the Bulls on AAPL will be the $118.31 to the $120.25 strong resistance zone...​​
​​Also, staying above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $118.07 is the first line of Defense for Bulls that they need to protect. So like I wrote last Friday, we re already into a Greed Phase.

​Rarely seen Correlation Factor of Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index above 0.75 for so long ( since October 27 ): usually a sign that a violent move is upon us...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $121.36 to MAX $122.03.
​​​​IF we do close today below $118.07 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $117.42 to MAX $116.76.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.67 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.88 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 18 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 10 with ​$112.00 support and $114.56 as resistance.

​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $118.07 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.36 max $122.03 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.07 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $118.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​42 max $116.76.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.00 - $119.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.85 and $118.07 and $116.76 Resistance :​​ $119.92 and $120.25 and $121.36
November 20 - Executive Summary - Greed Phase ?

​​We did close above the $114.56 level on Nov 18, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $116.76 on a Daily close.


​November 20
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​That research recommandation from Goldman wake up some Apple Fans and Apple Shares broke finally its 50 DMA on November 18 then at $114.56 and gap up as expected. It did create a Daily gap between November 17 high at $115.05 and November 18 Low at $115.50 that we must take note.
​​So finally outperformance of Apple Shares started a day later vs history:
But IF history repeat itself, from November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2% and from that peak (Nov 29), start to underperform til month end by -0.7%.​​
Do not Greed Fever takes you on that one...
Next Battle for the Bulls will be the $118.31 to the $120.15 strong resistance zone...​​

On SPY: we are in a Range Trade Pattern til November 23rd and near the high side of that Range. Next battle for Bulls on SPY is the Previous Break Down Trendline at 209.72 on a Daily close.

​​Yesterday, we reached intraday at some point Apple Shares Outperformance vs the Mighty SP500 Index up +3.2% conapre to the history from rom November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2%. We are getting already into the Greed Phase....

The least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet​​ is at the $116 handle. Significant Risk today.

​Next Battle for the Bulls will be the $118.31 to the $120.25 strong resistance zone...​​
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $119.23, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.36.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.76 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.65 to MAX $114.82.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.62 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.91 to 0.88). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 18 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 10 with ​$112.00 support and $114.56 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.23 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.23 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.36 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.76 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $119.23 but above $116.76 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.76 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​65 max $114.85.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.80 - $119.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.06 and $116.76 and $115.65 Resistance :​​ $119.23 and $120.25 and $121.36
November 19 - Executive Summary - Mind the Gap ?

​​We did close above the $114.56 level on Nov 18, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $115.65 on a Daily close.


​November 19
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​The Battle of the 50 DMA is in Full Mode as we tested yesterday and failed to have a close above it.
Todays level is $114.56.​ A Daily close above will bring more Price Chasers....
​​Market is within a Transition period which will be a Range Trade til November 23rd for SPY ETF but according to history, usually Apple Shares start to outperform the Mighty SP500. - See weekly research...
Volume activity is still low, so no strong convictions here from Mr Market...​
Those attack from ISIS IF it continue in EU and IF something happen in the US can be very harmfull to the financial markets. One is not enough but a series of attempts can have an impact...

That research recommandation from Goldman wake up some Apple Fans and Apple Shares broke finally its 50 DMA on November 18 then at $114.56 and gap up as expected. It did create a Daily gap between November 17 high at $115.05 and November 18 Low at $115.50 that we must take note.

​​So finally outperformance of Apple Shares started a day later vs history:
But IF history repeat itself, from November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2% and from that peak (Nov 29), start to underperform til month end by -0.7%.​​
Do not Greed Fever takes you on that one...

Next Battle for the Bulls will be the $118.31 to the $120.15 strong resistance zone...​​

​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.90, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $119.23.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.65 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.70 to MAX $113.61.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rosel to 1.68 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.91). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 18 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 10 with ​$112.00 support and $114.56 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 max $117.23 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $115.65 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.90 but above $115.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​70 max $113.61.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.40 - $118.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.89 and $115.65 and $114.70 Resistance :​​ $117.90 and $118.31 and $119.23
​​November 18 - Executive Summary - Inflexion Point ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $114.56 on a Daily close.


​November 18
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A few quite interesting Technical factors happened on November 16:
1) ​We did test the Previous Break Out Trendline from August 10 2015 ( now becomes support - see 1rst chart below - Red Trendline ) then at $111.01 and rebounded violently.
​​2) iTrendicator was getting near an oversold zone as shown here.
3) ​​Seasonals trend til November 17 are into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern. We are at a few trading sessions for a reversal as explained in my Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet):
​Big Picture: According to the Plan
4) That uptrend on November 16 was done on low Volume - not a strong Technical sign indeed...
​Next Big Battle for the Bulls are to get back over the 50 DMA now at $114.53 on a Daily close.​​
IF so, then expect more price chasers​ on Apple Shares...

​​The Battle of the 50 DMA is in Full Mode as we tested yesterday and failed to have a close above it.
Todays level is $114.56.​ A Daily close above will bring more Price Chasers....

​​Market is within a Transition period which will be a Range Trade til November 23rd for SPY ETF but according to history, usually Apple Shares start to outperform the Mighty SP500. - See weekly research...
Volume activity is still low, so no strong convictions here from Mr Market...​

Those attack from ISIS IF it continue in EU and IF something happen in the US can be very harmfull to the financial markets. One is not enough but a series of attempts can have an impact...

​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.56, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.06 to MAX $116.89.
​​​​IF we do close today below $112.00 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $110.81 to MAX $109.63.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 29.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 13, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.39
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.87 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 10 with ​$112.00 support and $114.56 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $112.00 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.56 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.06 max $116.89 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.56 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.56 but above $112.00 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $112.00 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​81 max $109.63.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.50 - $115.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.51 and $112.00 and $110.81 Resistance :​​ $114.56 and $116.06 and $116.89
​​November 17 - Executive Summary - Near Reversal ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $114.53 on a Daily close.


​November 17
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Friday the 13th was quite heavy on Financials Markets; we did broke finally the 50 DMA then at $114.39 on Apple Shares, quite a bear technical sign for Bulls...
​Bulls need to protect the the Previous Break Out Trendline from August 10 2015 ( now becomes support - see 1rst chart below - Red Trendline ) for today at $111.01. Closing below on a daily basis could bring another gap down in prices to $109.63 zone MAX $107.36.

A few quite interesting Technical factors happened on November 16:
1) ​We did test the Previous Break Out Trendline from August 10 2015 ( now becomes support - see 1rst chart below - Red Trendline ) then at $111.01 and rebounded violently.
​​2) iTrendicator was getting near an oversold zone as shown here.
3) ​​Seasonals trend til November 17 are into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern. We are at a few trading sessions for a reversal as explained in my Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet):
​Big Picture: According to the Plan
4) That uptrend on November 16 was done on low Volume - not a strong Technical sign indeed...

​Next Big Battle for the Bulls are to get back over the 50 DMA now at $114.53 on a Daily close.​​
IF so, then expect more price chasers​ on Apple Shares...

​​
​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.53, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.65 to MAX $116.82.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.93 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $107.36.


​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til November 17.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 13, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.39
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.69 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.87). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 10 with ​$112.52 support and $114.86 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.93 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.53 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.53 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.65 max $116.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.53 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.53 but above $110.93 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.93 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $107.36.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.30 - $115.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.30 and $112.52 and $110.93 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.65 and $116.82

​​November 16 - Executive Summary - Trendline ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $114.43 on a Daily close.


​November 16
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​On SPY ETF: We start to see some sign of capitulation and could see a violent rebound in the next few trading sessions as already my Trendicator is getting into oversold territory but did not turn up yet...​​
​​Seasonals trend til November 17 are into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern. We are at a few trading sessions for a reversal... Weekly Options Magnet for AAPL: the least pain for Market Makers is between the $115 to $116 handle, so not much to expect from that this week...
​​We are getting into a congestion zone for Apple Shares: $114.00 to $116.60​​.
Next battle for bears is to break the 50 DMA at $114.39.​

Friday the 13th was quite heavy on Financials Markets; we did broke finally the 50 DMA then at $114.39 on Apple Shares, quite a bear technical sign for Bulls...

​​Seasonals trend til November 17 are into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern. We are at a few trading sessions for a reversal as explained in my Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet):
​Big Picture: According to the Plan

Bulls need to protect the the Previous Break Out Trendline from August 10 2015 ( now becomes support - see 1rst chart below - Red Trendline ) for today at $111.01. Closing below on a daily basis could bring another gap down in prices to $109.63 zone MAX $107.36.
​​
​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.43, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $116.82.
​​​​IF we do close today below $111.01 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $107.36.


​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til November 17.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On November 13, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.39
​2) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
3) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​4) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
5) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​6) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.60 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.83 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 9 with ​$109.63 support and $113.85 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $111.01 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.43 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.43 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.50 max $116.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.43 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.43 but above $111.01 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $111.01 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $107.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.00 - $113.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.27 and $111.01 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $113.85 and $114.43 and $115.50


November 13 - Executive Summary - Friday the 13th ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $117.54 on a Daily close.


​November 13
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did have the expected Dead Cat Bounce but did not get near the Break Out Trendline from August 24 then at $117.98 ( todays level at $118.45) - We did reach $117.42 and fell to close at $116.12 - still weak technically speaking. We already broke the 20 DMA on November 10 and near testing the 50 DMA at $114.32 which IF broken will be another Coup de Jarnac for Apple Bulls.
​​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$114.71 support and $119.87 as resistance.
​​
​On SPY ETF: We start to see some sign of capitulation and could see a violent rebound in the next few trading sessions as already my Trendicator is getting into oversold territory but did not turn up yet...​​

​​Seasonals trend til November 17 are into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern. We are at a few trading sessions for a reversal...

Weekly Options Magnet for AAPL: the least pain for Market Makers is between the $115 to $116 handle, so not much to expect from that this week...

​​We are getting into a congestion zone for Apple Shares: $114.00 to $116.60​​.
Next battle for bears is to break the 50 DMA at $114.39.​


​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.54, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $118.91.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.39 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.83 to MAX $111.29.


​​​​​​​We need to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
2) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​3) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
4) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​5) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.60 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.83 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$113.91 support and $119.21 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 10 an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$120.53 support and $126.98 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $114.39 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.54 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 max $118.91 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.54 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.54 but above $114.39 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.39 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​83 max $111.29.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.40 - $116.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.44 and $114.39 and $112.83 Resistance :​​ $116.82 and $117.54 and $118.31
November 12 - Executive Summary - Downtrend Channel ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $118.31 on a Daily close.


​November 12
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday was a good example of a Coup de Jarnac with that Credit Suisse Downgrade on Suppliers cutting production of the iPhone6. It shows how long the market was and still is I think of Apple Shares.
​A lot of technical damage have been done; we broke on November 10 the Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48. It becomes Major Resistance at $117.98 for November 11.
It did create a Daily Gap ( November 9/10 - $118.07 to $120.05 ).​​ IF we don t have a dead cat bounce today to $117.98 MAX, it will shows even more weakness to me...
​​Market choppiness will continue and Volatility will pick up til November 17th.

We did have the expected Dead Cat Bounce but did not get near the Break Out Trendline from August 24 then at $117.98 ( todays level at $118.45) - We did reach $117.42 and fell to close at $116.12 - still weak technically speaking. We already broke the 20 DMA on November 10 and near testing the 50 DMA at $114.32 which IF broken will be another Coup de Jarnac for Apple Bulls.

​​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$114.71 support and $119.87 as resistance.
​​

​​​​IF we do close today above $118.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $119.23 to MAX $120.25.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.06 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.29 to MAX $114.32.


​​​​​​​We need to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
2) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​3) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
4) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​5) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.84 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.74 to 0.83). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$114.71 support and $119.87 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 10 an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$120.53 support and $126.98 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.06 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.23 max $120.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $118.31 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.31 but above $116.06 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.06 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​29 max $114.32.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.30 - $117.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.29 and $114.32 and $112.71 Resistance :​​ $116.70 and $117.42 and $118.45
​​​November 11 - Executive Summary - Coup de Jarnac ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $118.31 on a Daily close.


​November 11
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​So Seasonals started to kick in as a slow bleed phase til November 17: it will be a choppy ride I expect.
O​n a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to Financial Markets, especially Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?
I do not exclude another August Behavior IF US Dollar strength continue for a few weeks...
Interesting that on November 9, we made a double top at the $121.81 level and made a lower low since the peak price reached on November 4...
​​​I will start to focus on a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 with $117.48. IF we break that this week, it will be a very bad technical set up for Bulls... ( See chart Below - Amber Trendline )
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday was a good example of a Coup de Jarnac with that Credit Suisse Downgrade on Suppliers cutting production of the iPhone6. It shows how long the market was and still is I think of Apple Shares.

A lot of technical damage have been done; we broke on November 10 the Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48. It becomes Major Resistance at $117.98 for November 11.
It did create a Daily Gap ( November 9/10 - $118.07 to $120.05 ).​​ IF we don t have a dead cat bounce today to $117.98 MAX, it will shows even more weakness to me...

​​Market choppiness will continue and Volatility will pick up til November 17th.


​​​​IF we do close today above $118.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $119.23 to MAX $120.25.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.06 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $115.29 to MAX $114.15.


​​​​​​​We need to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
2) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​3) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
4) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​5) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.00 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.85 to 0.74). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on Nov 4 with ​$115.29 support and $120.42 as resistance.

​​We broke on November 10 an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$120.53 support and $126.98 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.06 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.23 max $120.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $118.31 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.31 but above $116.06 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.06 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​29 max $114.14.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.60 - $118.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.06 and $115.29 and $114.15 Resistance :​​ $117.05 and $117.98 and $118.31
November 10 - Executive Summary - Support Trendline ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $121.81 on a Daily close.


​November 10
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
We are getting into a Slow Bleed Phase for Sesonals til November 17 that will bring Volatility to pick up:
​Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet): Volatility Seasonals: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Last Friday strong NFP at +271k is putting the FED into a corner and mainly push the US Dollar higher:
That is bad for the stock market on a Macro Basis and especially Apple which have over 60% of its business away from the US retail base. Back to square one with potential volatility from foreign Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks, a potential August pullback revisited?: ​​SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$119.87 support and $126.34 as resistance. IF we break the $119.87 support trendline, it will accelerate the down move this week...
​​​​​
So Seasonals started to kick in as a slow bleed phase til November 17: it will be a choppy ride I expect.

O​n a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to Financial Markets, especially Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?
I do not exclude another August Behavior IF US Dollar strength continue for a few weeks...

Interesting that on November 9, we made a double top at the $121.81 level and made a lower low since the peak price reached on November 4...

​​​I will start to focus on a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 with $117.48. IF we break that this week, it will be a very bad technical set up for Bulls... ( See chart Below - Amber Trendline )
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​IF we do close today above $121.81, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.84 to MAX $123.82.
​​​​IF we do close today below $120.53 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.48.


​​​​​​​We need to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.65 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.85). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$120.53 support and $126.98 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $120.53 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.81 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.81 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $122.84 max $123.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.81 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.81 but above $120.53 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $120.53 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.48.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $119.20 - $121.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $119.23 and $118.31 and $117.48 Resistance :​​ $120.53 and $121.81 and $122.84
​​November 9 - Executive Summary - Seasonals ?

​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $121.99 on a Daily close.


​November 9
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.02. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.02. Very tough call with NFP today...
Weekly Options magnet least pain for the market makers is at the $120 handle.


We are getting into a Slow Bleed Phase for Sesonals til November 17 that will bring Volatility to pick up:
​Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet): Volatility Seasonals: Higher Volatility Ahead ?

Last Friday strong NFP at +271k is putting the FED into a corner and mainly push the US Dollar higher:
That is bad for the stock market on a Macro Basis and especially Apple which have over 60% of its business away from the US retail base. Back to square one with potential volatility from foreign Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks, a potential August pullback revisited?: ​​SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$119.87 support and $126.34 as resistance. IF we break the $119.87 support trendline, it will accelerate the down move this week...
​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.99, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.87 to MAX $123.91.
​​​​IF we do close today below $119.87 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.56.


​​​​​​​We need to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$119.87 support and $126.34 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $119.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.99 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.99 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $123.02 max $123.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.99 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.99 but above $119.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.56.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $119.80 - $122.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $120.62 and $119.87 and $118.31 Resistance :​​ $121.99 and $122.87 and $123.91

November 6 - Executive Summary - NFP ?
​​We did close below the $121.62 level on Nov 5, triggering the Bear Case.
Technical Challenge: ​Close below $121.94 on a Daily close.
​​November 6​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​From my weekly research on Seasonals:​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years) ​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5 til November 17 2) ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17 til November 29 On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.07. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.04.
Tech Problems wit my web site
On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.02. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.02.
Very tough call with NFP today...
Weekly Options magnet least pain for the market makers is at the $120 handle.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.94, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $123.02 to MAX $123.91. ​​​​IF we do close today below $119.23 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.83.
​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend. ​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.273) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​
We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$119.23 support and $125.63 as resistance. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $119.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.94 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​​Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.94 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $123.02 max $123.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.
​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.94 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... ​​A daily close Below $121.94 but above $119.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
​A daily close below $119.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.83.​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).​​​Expect a day trading range between $119.20 - $123.00 with above average volatility.
​​​​​​Support : $120.70 and $119.23 and $118.31 Resistance :​​ $121.94 and $123.02 and $123.91
November 5 - Executive Summary - Apple Seasonals ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $121.62 on a Daily close.


​November 5
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Market progress according to the Bullish seasonals that should last til November 5th. We are getting into the Greed Phase. Not that I dislike the price level of SPY or Apple Shares, but the upmove of the past few trading sessions have been done on low volume, which is not strong technically speaking. Also, the way it trades on an intraday basis, with a perpetual grind with very few correction...
​​On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.09. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.21.
​​I do not exclude a false break out scenario as the one that happened on July 20 and 21.: a violentt upmove with a major reversal pattern. And the technical indicators start to show Volatility ahead... And all that near Seasonals Reversal of November 5th... So please fasten your seat belt for the next few trading sessions...

From my weekly research on Seasonals:

But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5 til November 17
2) ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17 til November 29

On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.07. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.04.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.04, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $123.91 to MAX $125.50.
​​​​IF we do close today below $121.62 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $120.70 to MAX $119.23.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$118.53 support and $125.03 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $121.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $123.91 max $125.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $121.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.04 but above $121.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $121.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$119.​23 max $118.31.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $121.20 - $123.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $121.62 and $120.70 and $119.23 Resistance :​​ $122.77 and $123.04 and $123.91

​​​
November 4 - Executive Summary - Greed Phase ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $120.70 on a Daily close.


​November 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Seasonals in full throttle til November 5th but already Market Internals are weakening according to my Daily iTrendicator - see link at the bottom of written comments.
​​On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.11. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA. Same for AAPL.
For Apple that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 3rd is at $123.31.
So Technically speaking, a lot can happen til November 5th... Because Breaking those Major Resistances could bring another Bullish wave; IF SO I need to see done on strong Volume...

Market progress according to the Bullish seasonals that should last til November 5th. We are getting into the Greed Phase. Not that I dislike the price level of SPY or Apple Shares, but the upmove of the past few trading sessions have been done on low volume, which is not strong technically speaking. Also, the way it trades on an intraday basis, with a perputual gring with very few correction...

​​On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.09. Same for AAPL: that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 4th is at $123.21.

​​I do not exclude a false break out scenario as the one that happened on July 20 and 21.: a vioelnt upmove with a major reversal pattern. And the technical indicators start to show Volatility ahead... And all that near Seasonals Reversal of November 5th... So please fasten your seat belt for the next few trading sessions...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.21, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $124.42 to MAX $125.50.
​​​​IF we do close today below $120.70 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $119.23 to MAX $118.31.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.72 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.85 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$118.02 support and $124.42 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $120.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.21 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.42 max $125.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $120.70 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.21 but above $120.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $120.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$119.​23 max $118.31.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $121.80 - $123.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $121.84 and $120.70 and $119.23 Resistance :​​ $123.21 and $124.42 and $125.50


​​​November 3 - Executive Summary - Market Internals ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $119.23 on a Daily close.


​November 3
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​As expected, tiny correction at month end. And a weak Weekly Options Magnet effect, a surprise to me...
China remains a concern for financial markets...​
​We are in the last few days of an uptrend at the beginning of the month til November 5:
That pattern​ is conditional as we stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on SPY at 206.22 though...
​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years )
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5 til November 17
2) ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17 til November 29
​Weekly Research ​( for those who did not read it already ): November Seasonals: Roller Coaster ?

Seasonals in full throttle til November 5th but already Market Internals are weakening according to my Daily iTrendicator - see link at the bottom of written comments.

​​On SPY ETF: we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.11. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA. Same for AAPL.

For Apple that ​​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015 for November 3rd is at $123.31.

So Technically speaking, a lot can happen til November 5th... Because Breaking those Major Resistances could bring another Bullish wave; IF SO I need to see done on strong Volume...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.77, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.64 to MAX $123.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $119.23 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.23.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.79 ( with weakger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.85). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$117.23 support and $123.77 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $119.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.77 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.77 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $122.64 max $123.15 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $119.23 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.77 but above $119.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.23.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.30 - $120.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $120.25 and $119.23 and $118.31 Resistance :​​ $121.77 and $122.64 and $123.31


​​November 2 - Executive Summary - Conditional Move ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $119.23 on a Daily close.


​November 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​Quite surprise how resilient Apple Shares have been in the past 2 trading sessions; we continue to consolidate in the morning session and rally in the afternoon; A fight between international and domestic players.
Already Month End : Expect asset mix rebalancing as the IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays US Treasurys 7-10 Years ) had a negative performance since September 30 close of -0.83%. SP500 Index outperformed tremendously with +8.82%. So expect sellers of stocks to buy bonds. Apple did +9.27% so outperformed tiny this month vs SPY.
Read Also: ​​What Happens The Last Two Days Of A Month After A Huge Rally?
​​Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Markets Makers is between the $117 to $118 handle.
Take note that the next big fight for Bulls will be the 200 DMA​ ( Day Moving Average ) at $121.63.


​As expected, tiny correction at month end. And a weak Weekly Options Magnet effect, a surprise to me...
China remains a concern for financial markets...​

We are in the last few days of an uptrend at the beginning of the month til November 5:
That pattern​ is conditional as we stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on SPY at 206.22 though...

​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years )
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5 til November 17
2) ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17 til November 29

​Weekly Research ​( for those who did not read it already ): November Seasonals: Roller Coaster ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.70, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.64 to MAX $123.15.
​​​​IF we do close today below $119.23 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.52.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til November 5.


​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.75 ( with weakger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.81 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$116.62 support and $123.15 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $119.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.70 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $122.64 max $123.15 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $119.23 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.70 but above $119.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.52.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.30 - $120.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $119.23 and $118.31 and $117.52 Resistance :​​ $120.69 and $121.70 and $122.64

October 30 - Executive Summary - Month End ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $119.23 on a Daily close.


​October 30
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​Like I stated 2 weeks ago, my view on Q4 ER is on Volatility collapsing for way out of the money long term options​, not to speculate on the Apple Shares price at ER. And it did happen.
From October 27 to October 28, Volatility fell from ​40.09 to 26.78 and Relative Volatility from 2.60 to 1.87.
Yesterday price action after the FED was quite a surprise to me; above $118.39 was simply an overshoot and overbought conditions. We must be cautious here as seasonals are turning in a slow bleed til November 1rst and I still think there is some options liquidations to come...​
The FED triggered a strong US Dollar move that should bring back sometimes some turmoil in Emerging Markets; back to square one: Emerging-Market Stocks, Currencies Drop With Europe Bonds on Fed
Also, some divergence within some US Stock Index puzzle me a lot:
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?


Quite surprise how resilient Apple Shares have been in the past 2 trading sessions; we continue to consolidate in the morning session and rally in the afternoon; A fight between international and domestic players.

Already Month End : Expect asset mix rebalancing as the IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays US Treasurys 7-10 Years ) had a negative performance since September 30 close of -0.83%. SP500 Index outperformed tremendously with +8.82%. So expect sellers of stocks to buy bonds. Apple did +9.27% so outperformed tiny this month vs SPY.

Read Also: ​​What Happens The Last Two Days Of A Month After A Huge Rally?

​​Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Markets Makers is between the $117 to $118 handle.

Take note that the next big fight for Bulls will be the 200 DMA​ ( Day Moving Average ) at $121.63.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.57 to MAX $123.50.
​​​​IF we do close today below $119.23 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $117.52.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til October 31.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.81). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$115.97 support and $122.57 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $119.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $119.23 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.63 but above $119.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.52.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.50 - $119.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $120.25 and $119.23 and $118.31 Resistance :​​ $121.63 and $122.57 and $123.50




​​​October 29 - Executive Summary - Overshoot - Low conviction ?

​​We did close above the $117.44 level on Oct 28, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $117.52 on a Daily close.


​October 29
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Earnings Resulsts were OK. Now back with market positions.
​Bulls face the dilemna of getting out of their calls today and they will be in a hurry to do so as Volatility will be crushed. So expect resistance on the move as many weekly calls between the 115 to 125 handles.
So if anything, a grind or consolidation as long as those players are not out of the way.
Tough to put technicals levels​​; rough guess is $114 to $118.



​​​​Like I stated 2 weeks ago, my view on Q4 ER is on Volatility collapsing for way out of the money long term options​, not to speculate on the Apple Shares price at ER. And it did happen.
From October 27 to October 28, Volatility fell from ​40.09 to 26.78 and Relative Volatility from 2.60 to 1.87.

Yesterday price action after the FED was quite a surprise to me; above $118.39 was simply an overshoot and overbought conditions. We must be cautious here as seasonals are turning in a slow bleed til November 1rst and I still think there is some options liquidations to come...​

The FED triggered a strong US Dollar move that should bring back sometimes some turmoil in Emerging Markets; back to square one: Emerging-Market Stocks, Currencies Drop With Europe Bonds on Fed

Also, some divergence within some US Stock Index puzzle me a lot:
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $119.30, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.57.
​​​​IF we do close today below $117.52 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.49 to MAX $115.25.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til October 31.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 1.87 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.72 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$115.25 support and $121.85 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $117.52 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $117.52 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $119.30 but above $117.52 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $117.52 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​49 max $115.25.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.50 - $119.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.52 and $116.49 and $115.25 Resistance :​​ $119.30 and $120.25 and $121.57


October 28 - Executive Summary - After ER ?

​​We did close below the $117.44 level on Oct 26, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $117.44 on a Daily close.


​October 28
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​ ​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Coming from my old weekly research: Apple Shares Volatility Behavior at Q4 ER (Earnings Release) ?
So what we found ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Apple Shares Relative Volatility is peaking at T-4 to the Q4 ER event - Ocober 21 2015
2) Bottom Relative Volatility price is reached at T+2 after the Q4 ER event - October 29 2015.​
​​​3) Over the past 5 years, After the event, Relative Volatiliy price fell 5 years in a row with a fall from peak to through of -22.5%
Like I stated 2 weeks ago, my view on Q4 ER is on Volatility collapsing for way out of the money long term options​, not to speculate on the Apple Shares price at ER.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.
​But for market purpose, I will check what the market is pricing for ER move:
The $115 Oct 30 straddle ( long call and put ) closed on October 26 at $7.55​ .
SO market is pricing a move of 6.5% for Q4 ER​

Earnings Resulsts were OK. Now back with market positions.
​Bulls face the dilemna of getting out of their calls today and they will be in a hurry to do so as Volatility will be crushed. So expect resistance on the move as many weekly calls between the 115 to 125 handles.
So if anything, a grind or consolidation as long as those players are not out of the way.
Tough to put technicals levels​​; rough guess is $114 to $118.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.44, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $119.99.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.14 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.99 to MAX $112.24.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til October 31.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.60 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back intothe ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.77 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 20 with ​$115.14 support and $118.31 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $114.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 max $119.99 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.44 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.44 but above $115.14 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.14 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​99 max $112.24.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.60 - $118.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.33 and $115.14 and $113.99 Resistance :​​ $118.31 and $120.25 and $121.53



​​October 27 - Executive Summary - D-Day ?

​​We did close below the $117.44 level on Oct 26, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $117.44 on a Daily close.


​October 27
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​ ​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Coming from my old weekly research: Apple Shares Behavior at Q4 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
1) Apple Shares is in a grinding process from T-4 to the Q4 ER event.
2) Apple Shares outperform the SP500 from T-4 to T-1 by ONLY +2.36%.
3) Peak price is reached at T=0 and Relative Price is reached at the T-1 prior the Q4 ER event - October 27.​
​​​4) Over the past 5 years, After the event, price fell 4 years out of 5. The only up year was 2014 and peak price was reached at T+4 with a gain of only +2.56%
In the case of Earnings and Market momentum, China is the answer:
​China Could Be Apple's Savior For The September Quarter
Barclays to BlackRock Say the China Rebound Rally Won't Last
We are getting into a Greed Phase here, at only few trading sessions from ​ER (Earnings Release) on October 27.

Coming from my old weekly research: Apple Shares Volatility Behavior at Q4 ER (Earnings Release) ?
So what we found ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Apple Shares Relative Volatility is peaking at T-4 to the Q4 ER event - Ocober 21 2015
2) Bottom Relative Volatility price is reached at T+2 after the Q4 ER event - October 29 2015.​
​​​3) Over the past 5 years, After the event, Relative Volatiliy price fell 5 years in a row with a fall from peak to through of -22.5%

Like I stated 2 weeks ago, my view on Q4 ER is on Volatility collapsing for way out of the money long term options​, not to speculate on the Apple Shares price at ER.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

But for market purpose, I will check what the market is pricing for ER move:
The $115 Oct 30 straddle ( long call and put ) closed on October 26 at $7.55​ .
SO market is pricing a move of 6.5% for Q4 ER​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.44, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $119.99.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.42 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.71 to MAX $112.22.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til October 31.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.33 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back intothe ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.77). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an old uptrend channel that started on October 20 with ​$114.42 support and $117.74 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $114.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 max $119.99 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.44 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.44 but above $114.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​70 max $112.22.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.00 - $116.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.42 and $113.70 and $112.22 Resistance :​​ $115.72 and $116.89 and $117.44
MACRO LEVELS for Q4 ER
​Support : $112.22 and $110.49 and $109.63 and $108.21 Resistance :​​ $119.23 and $121.50 and $123.68

October 26 - Executive Summary - Q4 ER Preparation ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $117.44 on a Daily close.


​October 26
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​On October 22, ECB surprise the market with potentially more QE coming up in 2016. That was the fuel the rocket need to have a lif off. I think we are back to square one as the US Dollar strenght will bring back the Emerging Markets weaknesses through volatile foreign exchange rates...
​​We are into that new uptrend channel with $112.92 as support and $116.37 as resistance.
​​The next battle for the Bulls is to have a Weekly close above the $114.85 level on Apple Shares.​​
IF we are unable to close today above it, it will be a weak technical sign indeed for me...​
Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Market Makers is at the $113 handle...​
​I think we are getting into a Greed Phase here, at only few trading sessions from ​ER ( Earnings Release ) on October 27. ​​In any cases, Bulls need to protect the old break out trendline ( now becomes support ) and today at the $113.16 level. I did put my reversal at $115.21 as I don t trust that market...

Coming from my old weekly research: Apple Shares Behavior at Q4 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
1) Apple Shares is in a grinding process from T-4 to the Q4 ER event.
2) Apple Shares outperform the SP500 from T-4 to T-1 by ONLY +2.36%.
3) Peak price is reached at T=0 and Relative Price is reached at the T-1 prior the Q4 ER event - October 27.​
​​​4) Over the past 5 years, After the event, price fell 4 years out of 5. The only up year was 2014 and peak price was reached at T+4 with a gain of only +2.56%

In the case of Earnings and Market momentum, China is the answer:
​China Could Be Apple's Savior For The September Quarter
Barclays to BlackRock Say the China Rebound Rally Won't Last

We are getting into a Greed Phase here, at only few trading sessions from ​ER (Earnings Release) on October 27.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $119.99, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $121.49.
​​​​IF we do close today below $117.44 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.33 to MAX $115.44.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $119.75 level ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to change that to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 27.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.33 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back intothe ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.67 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on October 20 with ​$117.44 support and $120.89 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $117.44 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.99 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.99 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.25 max $121.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $117.44 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $119.99 but above $117.44 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $117.44 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​33 max $115.44.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.00 - $119.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.31 and $117.44 and $116.33 Resistance :​​ $119.23 and $120.25 and $121.49

​​​​October 23 - Executive Summary - Greed Phase ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $115.21 on a Daily close.


​October 23
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
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​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​Stock Market continue to send mixed signals as it is getting near the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) at 206.05 on SPY ...​So much for the price chasers on October 21 who played the break out on a late notice ... We re almost back into the old uptrend channel...We had on Apple on October 21 a shot across the bow: a Shooting Star Candle Pattern that reminds me that seasonalities are not that bullish for Apple Shares on a Relative Basis til ER on October 27.We need a daily close above $113.30 to stay long...​​

​On October 22, ECB surprise the market with potentially more QE coming up in 2016. That was the fuel the rocket need to have a lif off. I think we are back to square one as the US Dollar strenght will bring back the Emerging Markets weaknesses through volatile foreign exchange rates...

​​We are into that new uptrend channel with $112.92 as support and $116.37 as resistance.
​​The next battle for the Bulls is to have a Weekly close above the $114.85 level on Apple Shares.​​
IF we are unable to close today above it, it will be a weak technical sign indeed for me...​

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Market Makers is at the $113 handle...​

I think we are getting into a Greed Phase here, at only few trading sessions from ​ER ( Earnings Release ) on October 27.

​​In any cases, Bulls need to protect the old break out trendline ( now becomes support ) and today at the $113.16 level. I did put my reversal at $115.21 as I don t trust that market...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.37, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.89 to MAX $117.70.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.21 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.10 to MAX $113.16.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 22.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​5) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.28 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.51 to 0.41). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on October 19 with ​$112.92 support and $116.37 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.37 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.37 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.89 max $117.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $115.21 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.37 but above $115.21 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​10 max $113.16.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.20 - $116.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.21 and $114.10 and $113.16 Resistance :​​ $116.37 and $116.89 and $117.70

October 22 - Executive Summary - Shooting Star ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $113.30 on a Daily close.


​October 22
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​ Yesterday was a triple play: Broke on the upside the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.59,
​Broke on the upside the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.27, and did broke the Resistance Trendline form the Uptrend Channel at $ 113.56. SPY ETF / AAPL Price Volume Trend: Apple Break Out ?
From now on, Bulls need to protect the $112.15 (50DMA) and challenge the Weekly Resistance at $114.85.​
We are within a new uptrend channel with $110.68 as support and $114.63 as resistance.
​As a reminder from my Weekly Research:
​1) Apple Shares Relative Volatility is peaking at T-4 to the Q4 ER event - October 21 2015
2) Bottom Relative Volatility price is reached at T+2 after the Q4 ER event - October 29 2015.​
​​​3) Over the past 5 years, After the event, Relative Volatiliy price fell 5 years in a row with a fall from peak to through of -22.5%

​Stock Market continue to send mixed signals as it is getting near the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) at 206.05 on SPY ...

​So much for the price chasers on October 21 who played the break out on a late notice ... We re almost back into the old uptrend channel...

We had on Apple on October 21 a shot across the bow: a Shooting Star Candle Pattern that reminds me that seasonalities are not that bullish for Apple Shares on a Relative Basis til ER on October 27.

We nned a daily close above $113.30 to stay long...​​

​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.86, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.58 to MAX $116.69.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.30 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.16 to MAX $111.58.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 22.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​5) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.17 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.51 to 0.41). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 8 with ​$110.82 support and $114.86 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $113.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.58 max $116.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $113.30 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.86 but above $113.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​16 max $111.58.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.30 - $114.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.30 and $112.16 and $111.58 Resistance :​​ $114.86 and $115.58 and $116.69
​​​October 21 - Executive Summary - 50 DMA Break Out ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $112.15 on a Daily close.

​October 20
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​ Weekly Research:
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior at Q4 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
APPLE Volatility Technicals - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior at Q4 ER (Earnings Release) ?
​We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.56 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.59 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.27...
​​​​​​​​We are still stuck into that uptrend channel with $109.63 as support and $113.56 as resistance.
​​We broke that Resistance Trendline on October 19 which become support now at $110.80.
I put a lot more emphahsis on the 50 DMA now til ER - at $112.27.​
​​As stated in my Weekly Research, risk reward is a lot more interesting in the Volatility side compare to the price factor on Apple Shares... IF history repeat itself though...

Yesterday was a triple play: Broke on the upside the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.59,
​Broke on the upside the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.27, and did broke the Resistance Trendline form the Uptrend Channel at $ 113.56. SPY ETF / AAPL Price Volume Trend: Apple Break Out ?

From now on, Bulls need to protect the $112.15 (50DMA) and challenge the Weekly Resistance at $114.85.​
We are within a new uptrend channel with $110.68 as support and $114.63 as resistance.

As a reminder from my Weekly Research:
​1) Apple Shares Relative Volatility is peaking at T-4 to the Q4 ER event - October 21 2015
2) Bottom Relative Volatility price is reached at T+2 after the Q4 ER event - October 29 2015.​
​​​3) Over the past 5 years, After the event, Relative Volatiliy price fell 5 years in a row with a fall from peak to through of -22.5%


​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.50 to MAX $116.69.
​​​​IF we do close today below $112.15 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $111.61 to MAX $110.68.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 22.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​2) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27
3) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​4) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​5) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.27 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.40 to 0.51). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 8 with ​$110.68 support and $114.63 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $112.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.50 max $116.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $112.15 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.63 but above $112.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $112.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​61 max $110.68.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.30 - $114.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.30 and $112.15 and $111.61 Resistance :​​ $114.63 and $115.50 and $116.69


​​October 20 - Executive Summary - Stuck in the Channel ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.80 on a Daily close.

​October 20
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​What changed from Last Week is that now Also SPY is within a Resistance Zone: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.54 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.77 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.35... But what the Market is in reality fighting is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on July 21 and today stand at $111.37​​. See 1rst chart below - Orange Trendline.
But at this point, the market shift to put a lot more emphasis on ​​Q4 ER on October 27 and not sure at this point that breaking or not the Resistance Trendline will make any difference: Weekly Research:

​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior at Q4 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?

APPLE Volatility Technicals - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior at Q4 ER (Earnings Release) ?


We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.56 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.59 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.27...

​​​​​​​​We are still stuck into that uptrend channel with $109.63 as support and $113.56 as resistance.

​​We broke that Resistance Trendline on October 19 which become support now at $110.80.
I put a lot more emphahsis on the 50 DMA now til ER - at $112.27.​

​​As stated in my Weekly Research, risk reward is a lot more interesting in the Volatility side compare to the price factor on Apple Shares... IF history repeat itself though...

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.56, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.21 to MAX $114.57.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.80 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.97.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 22.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.57 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.27 to 0.40). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.63 support and $113.56 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.56 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.21 max $114.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.80 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.56 but above $110.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.80 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.97.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.80 and $109.63 and $108.97 Resistance :​​ $111.75 and $112.27 and $113.56

​​October 19 - Executive Summary - ER Focus ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.68 on a Daily close.

​October 19
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
We know that Apple have been into some troubles water lately - having problems outperforming the Mighty SP500 Index as stated in my Daily Research: SPY ETF / AAPL Price Volume Trend: Two Worlds Apart ?
We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.21 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.89 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.43...
But what the Market is in reality fighting is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on July 21 and today stand at $111.54​​. It may become a technical factor change for Apple Shares. See 1rst chart below - Orange Trendline. Apple Shares at are Crossroads Indeed...
Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Market Makers at at the $111 handle...​​

​What changed from Last Week is that now Also SPY is within a Resistance Zone: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.54 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.77 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.35... But what the Market is in reality fighting is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on July 21 and today stand at $111.37​​. See 1rst chart below - Orange Trendline.

But at this point, the market shift to put a lot more emphasis on ​​Q4 ER on October 27 and not sure at this point that breaking or not the Resistance Trendline will make any difference: Weekly Research:

​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior at Q4 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?

APPLE Volatility Technicals - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior at Q4 ER (Earnings Release) ?

​​​​​As stated in my Weekly Research, risk reward is a lot more interesting in the Volatility side compare to the price factor on Apple Shares... IF history repeat itself though...

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.51, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.21 to MAX $114.57.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.68 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $109.07.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 22.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.57 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.42 to 0.26). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.41 support and $113.51 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.68 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.21 max $114.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.68 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.51 but above $110.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.68 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $109.07.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.68 and $109.63 and $109.07 Resistance :​​ $111.86 and $112.35 and $113.51

October 16 - Executive Summary - At Crossroads ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.68 on a Daily close.

​October 16
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
October 14 close was so near the $110.32 pin that I will keep my Short Term Bull View.​
Yesterday​ news was heavy on the stock: Apple faces $862M fine after losing processor patent dispute
SPY is on a dead cat bounce today only....​
​​Still stuck within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.01 support and $113.51 as resistance; as long as stuck in there, choppy trendless trading.
​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.51 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.99 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.49...
As a reminder. Bullish seasonalities are fading quickly for Apple Shares and it is being replaced by Lower Relative Volatility - see weekly research for details...​
​​​​​
​We know that Apple have been into some troubles water lately - having problems outperforming the Mighty SP500 Index as stated in my Daily Research: SPY ETF / AAPL Price Volume Trend: Two Worlds Apart ?

We ve been fighting all week on those resistances; The Battle is still alive;​ ​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.21 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.89 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.43...

But what the Market is in reality fighting is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on July 21 and today stand at $111.54​​. It may become a technical factor change for Apple Shares. See 1rst chart below - Orange Trendline. Apple Shares at are Crossroads Indeed...

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Market Makers at at the $111 handle...​​


​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.21, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.51 to MAX $114.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.68 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $109.28.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 17.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.17 ( with stonger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.26 to 0.07). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.28 support and $113.21 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.68 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.21 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.51 max $114.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.68 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.21 but above $110.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.68 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $109.28.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.60 - $112.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.68 and $109.63 and $109.28 Resistance :​​ $112.10 and $112.43 and $113.21


October 15 - Executive Summary - Too close to change ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 15
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​TECHNICAL PROBLEMS: CHARTS NOT UPDATED​

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Last Call for Relative Bulls Seasonals on Apple Shares: As a reminder:
​But IF history repeat itself, from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by
+3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​ Til now in 2015, from October 6 to 9, Apple Shares outperformed the Mighty SP500 by +0.77%, tiny juice left til the 14th and reverse...
The Yen is telling us for a Risk Off behavior. On top of that, we had another Shooting Star Pattern on October 13 on SPY ETF. 2 factors that tells us to be cautious here.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Another Rejection of the DMAs yesterday. Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $112.85 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.30 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.59...

October 14 close was so near the $110.32 pin that I will keep my Short Term Bull View.​
Yesterday​ news was heavy on the stock: Apple faces $862M fine after losing processor patent dispute

SPY is on a dead cat bounce today only....​
​​
Still stuck within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.01 support and $113.51 as resistance; as long as stuck in there, choppy trendless trading.

Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $113.51 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $111.99 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.49...

As a reminder. Bullish seasonalities are fading quickly for Apple Shares and it is being replaced by Lower Relative Volatility - see weekly research for details...​
​​​​​
​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.49, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.51 to MAX $114.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $109.01.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 17.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.17 ( with stonger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.26 to 0.07). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$109.01 support and $113.51 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.49 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.49 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.41 max $114.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.49 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $109.01.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $111.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $109.01 Resistance :​​ $111.52 and $112.49 and $113.51

​​​October 14 - Executive Summary - DMA s Rejection Again ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 14
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday s story was the Rejection of the DMA S ( Day Moving Average ) as mentioned in my intraday comments. So tested the 20 DMA (then at $112.71) at the open and tumbled and unable to reach the 50 DMA
( then at $112.91). And each time we tested the Resistance from that upward channel, we did correct back into it very quickly...
​​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $112.64 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.53 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.72... Unless Mr SP500 decide otherwise...
And guess what: back to Chinese problems: Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble

Last Call for Relative Bulls Seasonals on Apple Shares: As a reminder:
​But IF history repeat itself, from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by
+3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​ Til now in 2015, from October 6 to 9, Apple Shares outperformed the Mighty SP500 by +0.77%, tiny juice left til the 14th and reverse...

The Yen is telling us for a Risk Off behavior. On top of that, we had another Shooting Star Pattern on October 13 on SPY ETF. 2 factors that tells us to be cautious here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Another Rejection of the DMAs yesterday. Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $112.85 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.30 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.59...

Still within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.93 support and $112.85 as resistance.

​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.85, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.51 to MAX $114.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.93.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 17.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.17 ( with stonger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.26 to 0.07). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.93 support and $112.85 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.85 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.85 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.41 max $114.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.85 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.93.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.68 and $109.63 and $108.93 Resistance :​​ $111.87 and $112.30 and $112.85

​October 13 - Executive Summary - DMA s Rejection ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 13
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Last Call for Relative Bulls Seasonals on Apple Shares: As a reminder:
​But IF history repeat itself, from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by
+3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​ Til now in 2015, from October 6 to 9, Apple Shares outperformed the Mighty SP500 by +1.68%, tiny juice eft til the 14th and reverse...
And few trading sessions later, Relative Underperformance of Volatility of Apple Shares that historically start on October 18 til October 31 according to the past 5 years. From my Weekly Reserach IF you did not read it yet: Volatility Seasonals: Lower Volatility Ahead ?
​But it won t be an easy task unless SP500 Index consolidate or fall: Apple Shares are getting back into a resistance zone: $112.52 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.71 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.91...
​I cant remember having seen a peroid with so much change in the Daily Correlation Factor between SP500 Index and Apple Shares...

Yesterday s story was the Rejection of the DMA S ( Day Moving Average ) as mentioned in my intraday comments. So tested the 20 DMA (then at $112.71) at the open and tumbled and unable to reach the 50 DMA
( then at $112.91). And each time we tested the Resistance from that upward channel, we did correct back into it very quickly...

​​Apple Shares still fighting those resistance zones for today: $112.64 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.53 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.72... Unless Mr SP500 decide otherwise...

And guess what: back to Chinese problems: Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.72, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.51 to MAX $114.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.73.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 17.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.45 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.45 to 0.26). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.73 support and $112.64 as resistance.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.72 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.72 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.41 max $114.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.72 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.73.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.73 Resistance :​​ $111.54 and $112.72 and $113.51



​​October 12 - Executive Summary - Last Call for Bull Seasonals ?

​​We did close above the $110.52 level on Oct 9, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 12
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Having tested on October 8 the Support Trendline on Apple Shares of that Uptrend Channel that started back on October 1 then at $108.52 was quite some technical weaknesses especially when the SP500 Index was making new high. My fear is that AAPL performed so poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2; IF it break that Support Trendline of that Channel ( now at $108.73 ), then risk is a nasty gap down: $107.31 to $105.65 again.
There is still risk of Counter Trends Trades ( remember last Friday ): for now Apple Shares better in Intraday Trading than Day trades as some headwinds are there... Least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Optons Magnet is between the $109 to $110 handle today.​

Last Call for Relative Bulls Seasonals on Apple Shares: As a reminder:
​But IF history repeat itself, from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by
+3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​ Til now in 2015, from October 6 to 9, Apple Shares outperformed the Mighty SP500 by +1.68%, tiny juice eft til the 14th and reverse...
And few trading sessions later, Relative Underperformance of Volatility of Apple Shares that historically start on October 18 til October 31 according to the past 5 years. From my Weekly Reserach IF you did not read it yet: Volatility Seasonals: Lower Volatility Ahead ?

​But it won t be an easy task unless SP500 Index consolidate or fall: Apple Shares are getting back into a resistance zone: $112.52 Resistance Channel from October 1st, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.71 and finally the 50 DMA at $112.91...

I cant remember having seen a peroid with so much change in the Daily Correlation Factor between SP500 Index and Apple Shares...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.52, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.91 to MAX $113.72.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.58.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til October 17.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.19 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.20 to 0.45). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.58 support and $112.52 as resistance.
​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.52 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.52 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.91 max $113.72 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.52 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.58.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.80 - $112.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.54 and $110.32 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $112.52 and $112.91 and $113.72


​​October 9 - Executive Summary - Channel Support at Play ?

​​We did close below the $110.32 level on Oct 8, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close below $110.52 on a Daily close.

​October 9
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​We are still into that consolidation phase on AAPL as it painfully try to stay above the $109.63 support trendline
We did test the resistance from the uptrend channel then at $111.76 and failed again to close above...
​My fear is that AAPL performed poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2.
Even if we have counter trend trades ( Selling SP500 and Buying AAPL ), I am not sure​ it can hold a long time above $109.63....​​Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Channel (now at $108.52) and rebound strongly.​​ PVT confirms how weak AAPL was compare to SPY.
​​We are getting into a resistance zone: $112.00 channel resistance, $112.23 trendline from August 31 ( Blue Line chart below ) and the 20 DMA at $112.97.​
Positive Relative Performance Seasonals are good til October 14th.​​ I am speechless of that poor performance from October 6 til now...

Having tested on October 8 the Support Trendline on Apple Shares of that Uptrend Channel that started back on October 1 then at $108.52 was quite some technical weaknesses especially when the SP500 Index was making new high. My fear is that AAPL performed so poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2; IF it break that Support Trendline of that Channel ( now at $108.73 ), then risk is a nasty gap down: $107.31 to $105.65 again.

There is still risk of Counter Trends Trades ( remember last Friday ): for now Apple Shares better in Intraday Trading than Day trades as some headwinds are there... Least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Optons Magnet is between the $109 to $110 handle today.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $110.52, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $111.54 to MAX $112.82.
​​​​IF we do close today below $108.73 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $107.31 to MAX $106.20.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.28 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.89 to 0.20). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.73 support and $112.37 as resistance.
​​​​​
​We broke on October 2 a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $108.73 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.52 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.52 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.54 max $112.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $110.52 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $110.52 but above $108.73 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $108.73 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​31 max $105.65.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.70 - $110.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.73 and $107.31 and $106.20 Resistance :​​ $109.63 and $110.52 and $111.54


​​​October 8 - Executive Summary - My Dear PVT ?

​​We did close above the $109.63 level on Oct 2, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 8
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A reminder: the usual pattern of the past 5 years by SPY is an upmove til October 6th, a last puke down til October 9th and grind til month end. And IF history repeat itself ( past 5 years on Average ), from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​
We are still within that uptremd channel with 108​.25 as support and $111.76 as resistance.
We are getting into a resistance zone: $111.76 channel resistance, $112.31 trendline from August 31 ( Blue Line chart below ) and the 20 DMA at $112.94.​

​We are still into that consolidation phase on AAPL as it painfully try to stay above the $109.63 support trendline
We did test the resistance from the uptrend channel then at $111.76 and failed again to close above...
​My fear is that AAPL performed poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2.
Even if we have counter trend trades ( Selling SP500 and Buying AAPL ), I am not sure​ it can hold a long time above $109.63....​​Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Channel (now at $108.52) and rebound strongly.​​ PVT confirms how weak AAPL was compare to SPY.

​​We are getting into a resistance zone: $112.00 channel resistance, $112.23 trendline from August 31 ( Blue Line chart below ) and the 20 DMA at $112.97.​

Positive Relative Performance Seasonals are good til October 14th.​​ I am speechless of that poor performance from October 6 til now...

​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.76, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.31 to MAX $112.94.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.25.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.10 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.03 to 0.89). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.52 support and $112.00 as resistance.
​​​​​
​We broke on October 2 a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.97 max $113.39 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.00 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.52.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $112.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.52 Resistance :​​ $111.54 and $112.00 and $112.97


October 7 - Executive Summary - Seasonals ?

​​We did close above the $109.63 level on Oct 2, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $110.32 on a Daily close.

​October 7
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
We are still into that consolidation phase on AAPL as it painfully try to stay above the $109.63 support trendline
We did test the resistance from the uptrend channel then at $111.28 and failed to close above...
​My fear is that AAPL performed poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2.
Even if we have counter trend trades ( Selling SP500 and Buying AAPL ), I am not sure​ it can hold a long time above $109.63....​​Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Channel (now at $108.06) and rebound strongly.​​

A reminder: the usual pattern of the past 5 years by SPY is an upmove til October 6th, a last puke down til October 9th and grind til month end. And IF history repeat itself ( past 5 years on Average ), from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​

We are still within that uptremd channel with 108​.25 as support and $111.76 as resistance.

We are getting into a resistance zone: $111.76 channel resistance, $112.31 trendline from August 31 ( Blue Line chart below ) and the 20 DMA at $112.94.​


​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.76, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.31 to MAX $112.94.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.32 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.25.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.99 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.24 to 0.03). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.25 support and $111.76 as resistance.
​​​​​
​We broke on October 2 a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.76 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.76 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.31 max $112.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.76 but above $110.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.25.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.87 and $109.63 and $108.25 Resistance :​​ $111.76 and $112.31 and $112.94

​​​October 6 - Executive Summary - Still into the Channel ?

​​We did close above the $109.63 level on Oct 2, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $109.63 on a Daily close. The Support Trendline.

​October 6
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
On SPY: ​​Not only we made a huge upwave, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62. One of the rare Upday with strong Volume since August 24 for SPY. In the case of AAPL, we did have stronger Volume but not enough for me to comapre to SPY...
As explained in the Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet: October Seasonals: Choppy but Friendly ? ), the usual pattern of the past 5 yearsby SPY is an upmove til October 6th, a last puke down til October 9th and grinf til month end. And IF history repeat itself ( past 5 years on Average ), from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​
Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Channel (now at $107.83) and rebound strongly.​​

We are still into that consolidation phase on AAPL as it painfully try to stay above the $109.63 support trendline
We did test the resistance from the uptrend channel then at $111.28 and failed to close above...
​My fear is that AAPL performed poorly in the biggest upwave from SP500 Index since October 2.
Even if we have counter trend trades ( Selling SP500 and Buying AAPL ), I am not sure​ it can hold a long time above $109.63....

​​Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Channel (now at $108.06) and rebound strongly.​​

​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.54, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.37 to MAX $112.99.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.07 to MAX $108.06.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.99 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.24 to 0.03). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$108.06 support and $111.54 as resistance.
​​​​​
​We broke on October 2 a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.54 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.37 max $112.99 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.54 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​07 max $108.06.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.00 - $111.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.06 Resistance :​​ $111.54 and $112.37 and $112.99

​​​October 5 - Executive Summary - Consolidation Only ?

​​We did close above the $109.63 level on Oct 2, triggering the Bull Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $109.63 on a Daily close. The Support Trendline.

​October 5
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday article by Digitimes on iPhone orders were quite heavy on the stock:
​IC suppliers concerned about new iPhone orders
​​The good news technically speaking is that we tested the September 1 low ($107.36) and rebounded strongly thereafter to create a Daily Hammer Candle Pattern.
The bad news is that we did closed below the $109.63, showing not strong technicals yet.​​
Apple Shares are now on the cheap side on a relative basis to the Mighty SP500 as we got yesterday below the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average ) and at the support trendline: See 3rd chart below - Ellipse.​
The problem is all that is happening when we have the strong dead cat bounce from SP500; the question arise, any juice left for Apple in the next few trading sessions? Little indeed...​​
​​​​​​​​​Also the least pain for market makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is at the $109 handle.​

On SPY: ​​Not only we made a huge upwave, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62. One of the rare Upday with strong Volume since August 24 for SPY. In the case of AAPL, we did have stronger Volume but not enough for me to comapre to SPY...

As explained in the Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet: October Seasonals: Choppy but Friendly ? ), the usual pattern of the past 5 yearsby SPY is an upmove til October 6th, a last puke down til October 9th and grinf til month end. And IF history repeat itself ( past 5 years on Average ), from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​

Best scenario here til October 9th is to test the Bottom of that new Upward Chaanel (now at $107.83) and rebound strongly.​​

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.28, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.56 to MAX $112.91.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.73 to MAX $107.83.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.90 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.55 to 0.24). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on October 1 with ​$107.83 support and $111.28 as resistance.
​​​​​
​We broke on October 2 a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.28 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.28 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.56 max $112.91 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.28 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​73 max $107.83.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.70 - $111.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.73 Resistance :​​ $111.28 and $112.56 and $112.91


October 2 - Executive Summary - Relatively Cheap ?

​​We did close below the $114.42 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $109.63 on a Daily close. The Support Trendline.

​October 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
We did have the dead cat bounce, almost reached the $111.87 level and faded. The good news is that we closed above $109.63 which is a good thing technically speaking.
​​I think from here AAPL will behave more like the market : so I do not expect underperformance from here vs the Mighty SP500 Index for a few trading sessions. Best scenario - technically speaking - is to test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $113.03 and see IF we can break it or not...

Yesyerday article by Digitimes on iPhone orders were quite heavy on the stock:
​IC suppliers concerned about new iPhone orders

​​The good news technically speaking is that we tested the September 1 low ($107.36) and rebounded strongly thereafter to create a Daily Hammer Candle Pattern.

The bad news is that we did closed below the $109.63, showing not strong technicals yet.​​
Apple Shares are now on the cheap side on a relative basis to the Mighty SP500 as we got yesterday below the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average ) and at the support trendline: See 3rd chart below - Ellipse.​

The problem is all that is happening when we have the strong dead cat bounce from SP500; the question arise, any juice left for Apple in the next few trading sessions? Little indeed...​​
​​​​​​​​​
Also the least pain for market makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is at the $109 handle.​

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $109.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $110.32 to MAX $111.54.
​​​​IF we do close today below $107.31 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $106.24 to MAX $105.20.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.68 to 0.55). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$102.96 support and $108.73 as resistance.

​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.22 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $107.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $110.532​​max $111.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $109.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $109.63 but above $107.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $107.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$106.​24 max $105.20.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.70 - $110.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.73 Resistance :​​ $111.54 and $112.65 and $113.03


​​​October 1 - Executive Summary - Any Follow Through ?

​​We did close below the $114.42 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bear Case.


Technical Challenge:
​Close above $109.63 on a Daily close. The Support Trendline.

​October 1
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
So we had AAPL underperform tremendously on September 29. I expect some underperformance today and resume normal market behavior at the beginning of October. That was according to the weekly research...
I expect a Dead Cat Bounce from SP500 Index as month end asset mix rebalancing takes place.
The Bounce on AAPL should be tiny: $110.45 to MAX $111.87.​​​

We did have the dead cat bounce, almost reached the $111.87 level and faded. The good news is that we closed above $109.63 which is a good thing technically speaking.

​​I think from here AAPL will behave more like the market : so I do not expect underperformance from here vs the Mighty SP500 Index for a few trading sessions. Best scanario - technically speaking - is to test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $113.03 and see IF we can break it or not...


​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $110.32, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $111.54 to MAX $112.65.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.73 to MAX $107.86.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.64 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.68). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$104.77 support and $110.32 as resistance.

​​We broke on September 29 a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$110.92 support and $115.62 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.22 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.32 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.32 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.54 ​​max $112.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $110.32 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $110.32 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​73 max $107.86.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $111.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.32 and $109.63 and $108.73 Resistance :​​ $111.54 and $112.65 and $113.03

​​​September 30 - Executive Summary - Tiny Rebound ?

​​We did close below the $114.42 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bear Case.


Technical Challenge:
​Close below $111.87 on a Daily close. The Channel Resistance Trendline.

​September 28
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​ ​​I start to see signs of capitulation in the bord market, NOT Apple:
​Signs of Market Capitulation ?
​The risk for Apple in fact is underperforming til month end on any rebound from SP500 Index...
​​For now , we are into the battle of the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $113.10. Another day close today below it will make investors quite nervous...

So we had AAPL underperform tremendously on September 29. I expect some underperformance today and resume normal market behavior at the beginning of October. That was according to the weekly research...

I expect a Dead Cat Bounce from SP500 Index as month end asset mix rebalancing takes place.
The Bounce on AAPL should be tiny: $110.45 to MAX $111.87.​​​

​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.87, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.78 to MAX $112.92.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.80 to MAX $107.86.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.69 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.60 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 25 with ​$106.25 support and $111.87 as resistance.

​​We broke on September 29 a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$110.92 support and $115.62 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.22 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.78 ​​max $112.92 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $111.87 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.87 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​80 max $107.86.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.10 - $111.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.63 and $108.80 and $107.86 Resistance :​​ $110.45 and $111.87 and $112.78

​​September 29 - Executive Summary - Battle of the 20 DMA ?

​​We did close below the $114.42 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bear Case.


Technical Challenge:
​Close below $113.10 on a Daily close. The 20 DMA

​September 28
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​ ​​My last Weekly Research.: September 28: Big Picture: End of the month
Last Friday, we did have a dead cat bounce Only for the SP500 as expected and tumble thereafter.
We are trading like the US Dollar Index; Big Picture continue to deteriorate:
SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​​​More crucial is that AAPL tested the 50 DMA ( then at $116.24 ) and the Resistance Trendline that started back on August 10 ( then at $115.70 ) and was rejected. Here we need to stay above the 20 DMA at $113.15 and retest the 50 DMA at $115.97. A Daily close below the 20 DMA at this phase will bring a nasty Bear Move...

I start to see signs of capitulation in the bord market, NOT Apple:
​Signs of Market Capitulation ?

The risk for Apple in fact is underperforming til month end on any rebound from SP500 Index...

​For now , we are into the battle of the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $113.10. Another day close today below it will make investors quite nervous...

​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.57, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.62 to MAX $116.69.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.10 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $111.87 to MAX $110.92.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.21 to 0.60). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$110.92 support and $115.62 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.22 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.57 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.57 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.62 ​​max $116.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.57 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.57 but above $113.10 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​87 max $110.92.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.30 - $114.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.10 and $111.87 and $110.92 Resistance :​​ $114.02 and $114.57 and $115.62



September 28 - Executive Summary - Rejection of the 50 DMA ?

​​We did close above the $114.53 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back below the 20 DMA at $113.15

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $115.97 on a Daily close. The 50 DMA

​September 28
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​ ​We did have a strong test from SP500 yesterday: did retest the lows of September 1 , made a Hammer at the bottom of the range and rebounded on stronger volume. It is ONLY a dead cat bounce to me...
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Apple did well, testing the 20 DMA zone at $112.79 and rebounded strongly: next battle is the downward resistance channel at $115.70 and the 50 DMA at $116.24. We nead to be cautious as Friday this year have been bad in performance for the SP500. Also, the least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is between the 113 to 114 handle today... And not to add that historically speaking, AAPL outperformance start to fade; already up +4.02% for September this year vs +5.03 the previous past 5 years...

​My last Weekly Research.: September 28: Big Picture: End of the month

Last Friday, we did have a dead cat bounce Only for the SP500 as expected and tumble thereafter.
We are trading like the US Dollar Index; Big Picture continue to deteriorate:
SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?

​​​​More crucial is that AAPL tested the 50 DMA ( then at $116.24 ) and the Resistance Trendline that started back on August 10 ( then at $115.70 ) and was rejected. Here we need to stay above the 20 DMA at $113.15 and retest the 50 DMA at $115.97. A Daily close below the 20 DMA at this phase will bring a nasty Bear Move...

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $115.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.69 to MAX $117.65.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.42 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.15 to MAX $112.37.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.40 to -0.21). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$112.62 support and $115.97 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.22 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $114.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.69 ​​max $117.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.42 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $115.97 but above $114.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​15 max $112.62.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.20 - $115.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.42 and $113.15 and $112.62 Resistance :​​ $115.59 and $115.97 and $116.69

​​September 25 - Executive Summary - Battle of the 50 DMA ?

​​We did close above the $114.53 level on Sept 24, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back below the 20 DMA at $113.06

Technical Challenge:
​Close above $116.24 on a Daily close. The 50 DMA


​September 25
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​Dead cat bounce was weaker than expected with a high at only $114.72.
​Risk here is increase Volatility and resuming the main trend - down as AAPL outperformance start to fade.
as mentioned in my last Weekly Research.: ​Big Picture: Hope is not a Strategy
..

We did have a strong test from SP500 yesterday: did retest the lows of September 1 , made a Hammer at the bottom of the range and rebounded on stronger volume. It is ONLY a dead cat bounce to me...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Apple did well, testing the 20 DMA zone at $112.79 and rebounded strongly: next battle is the downward resistance channel at $115.70 and the 50 DMA at $116.24. We nead to be cautious as Friday this year have been bad in performance for the SP500. Also, the least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is between the 113 to 114 handle today... And not to add that historically speaking, AAPL outperformance start to fade; already up +4.02% for September this year vs +5.03 the previous past 5 years...

​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.24, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.89 to MAX $117.65.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.42 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.06 to MAX $112.37.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.53 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.60 to 0.40). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$111.24 support and $115.70 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $114.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.24 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.24 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.89 ​​max $117.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.42 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.24 but above $114.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​06 max $112.37.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.70 - $116.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.44 and $114.42 and $113.06 Resistance :​​ $116.24 and $116.89 and $117.65


September 24 - Executive Summary - More Volatility ?

​​We did close below the $114.53 level on Sept 17, triggering the Bear Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.14

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $112.79 on a Daily close. The 20 DMA


​September 24
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Tiny Technical Rebound to $114.53 MAX $115.15 before resuming downtrend.
​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge below $113.14 , unless technical weakness it is...
China turmoil continus with weak PMI - so Volatility will prevail...​

​​Dead cat bounce was weaker than expected with a high at only $114.72.
​Risk here is increase Volatility and resuming the main trend - down as AAPL outperformance start to fade.
as mentioned in my last Weekly Research.: ​Big Picture: Hope is not a Strategy
..


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.53, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.85 to MAX $116.48.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.07 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.79 to MAX $111.35.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.54 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.55 to 0.60). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$111.35 support and $115.85 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$113.24 support and $122.16 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.07 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.53 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.53 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.85 ​​max $116.48 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.53 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.53 but above $113.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​79 max $111.35.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.80 - $115.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.07 and $112.79 and $111.35 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.85 and $116.48
​​​
September 23 - Executive Summary - Another Tiny Rebound ?

​​We did close below the $114.53 level on Sept 17, triggering the Bear Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.14

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $112.27 on a Daily close. The 20 DMA


​September 23
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
As expected we did have our Dead Cat Bounce on September 21, a little stronger than I expected as we reached above $114.86. I ll keep my bear biais ( as mentioned yesterday ) on the overall market but AAPL Relative Outperformance vs the Mighty SP500. For that scenario to unfold I need a Daily close below $114.54 today.​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge below $113.24 , unless technical weakness it is...

Tiny Technical Rebound to $114.53 MAX $115.15 before resuming downtrend.
​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge below $113.14 , unless technical weakness it is...
China turmoil continus with weak PMI - so Volatility will prevail...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.53, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.15 to MAX $115.97.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.14 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.27 to MAX $111.43.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.39 to 0.53). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$111.43 support and $115.97 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$113.24 support and $122.16 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.14 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.53 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.53 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.15 ​​max $115.97 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.53 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.53 but above $113.14 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.14 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​27 max $111.43.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.80 - $115.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.14 and $112.27 and $111.43 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.15 and $115.97


​​September 22 - Executive Summary  Dead Cat Bounce Over ?

​​We did close below the $114.53 level on Sept 17, triggering the Bear Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.24

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $111.75 on a Daily close. The 20 DMA


​September 22
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Apple Shares are within the outperformance window as explained in my weekly research.
​​Those wo did not have the chance to read the Weekly Research:
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Big Picture: Hope is not a Strategy
​After the strong correction on September 18, we can expect a tiny Dead Cat Bounce towards $114.08 MAX $114.86 before resuming downtrend.

As expected we did have our Dead Cat Bounce on September 21, a little stronger than I expected as we reached above $114.86. I ll keep my bear biais ( as mentioned yesterday ) on the overall market but AAPL Relative Outperformance vs the Mighty SP500. For that scenario to unfold I need a Daily close below $114.54 today.
​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge below $113.24 , unless technical weakness it is...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.54, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.37 to MAX $116.10.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.24 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.10 to MAX $111.75.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.60 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.55 to 0.39). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$111.62 support and $116.10 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$113.24 support and $122.16 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.24 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.53 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.25 ​​max $116.89 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.53 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.53 but above $113.24 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.24 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​10 max $111.62.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.60 - $114.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.24 and $112.10 and $111.62 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.37 and $116.10

​​September 21 - Executive Summary  Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​We did close below the $114.54 level on Sept 17, triggering the Bear Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.31

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $114.86 on a Daily close.


​September 21
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​We did have a technical Break Out on September 16 at 199.28 on the Pennant Trendline on SPY ETF.
That Break Out was done on low volume on September 16 to be followed on September 17 by a Shooting Star
Least Pain for Market Makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is the 113 handle.
What is critical here for Bulls is that we stay above on a Daily Close the previous Break Out Trendline ( and also the Channel Support Trendline ) now at $ 113.42. ( See First Chart Below )

Apple Shares are within the outperformance window as explained in my weekly research.
​​Those wo did not have the chance to read the Weekly Research:
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Big Picture: Hope is not a Strategy

After the strong correction on September 18, we can expect a tiny Dead Cat Bounce towards $114.08 MAX $114.86 before resuming downtrend.

​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.86, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.25 to MAX $116.89.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.31 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.10 to MAX $111.72.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.69 to 0.55). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 14 with ​$111.72 support and $116.25 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$113.24 support and $122.16 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.25 ​​max $116.89 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.86 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.86 but above $113.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​10 max $111.72.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.60 - $115.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.31 and $112.10 and $111.72 Resistance :​​ $114.08 and $114.86 and $116.25


​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
September 18 - Executive Summary  Break Out Trendline ?

​​We did close below the $114.54 level on Sept 17, triggering the Bear Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.42

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $116.49 on a Daily close.


​September 18
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​We had a Technical Break Out on the SPY ( Pennant Pattern ) but with no Volume ; that bothers me a lot...
​SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​Also on Apple Shares, Volume have been cratering on the upwave...


​We did have a technical Break Out on September 16 at 199.28 on the Pennant Trendline on SPY ETF.
That Break Out was done on low volume on September 16 to be followed on September 17 by a Shooting Star


Least Pain for Market Makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is the 113 handle.

What is critical here for Bulls is that we stay above on a Daily Close the previous Break Out Trendline ( and also the Channel Support Trendline ) now at $ 113.42. ( See First Chart Below )

​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.49, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.24 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.42 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.00 to MAX $111.24.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.55 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.74). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$113.24 support and $122.16 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $101.41 as support and $118.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.49 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.49 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.24 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.49 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.49 but above $113.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​00 max $111.24.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.80 - $115.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.42 and $112.00 and $111.24 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.42 and $116.49

​​
​​September 17 - Executive Summary No Volume ?

​​We did close above the $113.86 level on Sept 11, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.62

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above $114.54 on a Daily close.

September 17
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​We are still within that Pennant on SPY that will trigger the next big move in the market - a must follow.
​Also the meeting on September 16/17 by the FED could add tremendous volatility to the market as they prepare to do their first hike...​​
As mentioned yesterday, a little cautious going forward as NO official release from Apple on Pre-Orders this year:​​ Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone 6S First Weekend Sales Numbers Include China

We had a Technical Break Out on the SPY ( Pennant Pattern ) but with no Volume ; that bothers me a lot...
​SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​Also on Apple Shares, Volume have been cratering on the upwave...

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.89, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.42 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.54 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.60 to MAX $112.84.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.55 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.74). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$112.84 support and $121.38 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $101.41 as support and $118.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $114.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.89 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.89 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.60 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.89 but above $114.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​60 max $112.24.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.50 - $117.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.44 and $114.54 and $113.46 Resistance :​​ $116.89 and $117.42 and $118.31



​​​FOMC Macro Levels
​Support : $113.46 and $111.29 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $117.42 and $119.99 and $121.38


​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :

​​September 16 - Executive Summary  Still the Pennant on SPY ?

​​We did close above the $113.86 level on Sept 11, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.62

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above $114.54 on a Daily close.

September 16
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​China concerns: China Stocks Sink Again as Growth Concerns Spur Investor Exodus
I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken on the SP500. READ: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
Pre-Orders news was a good boost to Apple Shares on September 14; can the momentum continue? We are at crossroads here as SP500 is not that strong. So the safest way is to play the Relative Outperformance on AAPL, as long as China turmoil does not hit us back again...
​​We broke on September 11 on AAPL the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86.
IF it is a real break out, ​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge now at $113.67...

We are still within that Pennant on SPY that will trigger the next big move in the market - a must follow.
​Also the meeting on September 16/17 by the FED could add tremendous volatility to the market as they prepare to do their first hike...​​

As mentioned yesterday, a little cautious going forward as NO official release from Apple on Pre-Orders this year:​​ Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone 6S First Weekend Sales Numbers Include China


​​​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.89, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.30 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.54 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.60 to MAX $112.24.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.77 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$112.24 support and $120.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $101.41 as support and $118.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $114.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.89 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.89 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.60 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.89 but above $114.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​60 max $112.24.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.80 - $117.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.50 and $114.54 and $113.60 Resistance :​​ $116.89 and $117.60 and $118.31

​​September 15 - Executive Summary  Follow the Pennant Pattern on SPY ?

​​We did close above the $113.86 level on Sept 11, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.67

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above $113.67 on a Daily close.

September 15
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​So expectations will rise on Relative Volatility and Outperformance this week as explained in my weekly Research if you did not read it yet: September 13: Volatility Seasonals: Increased Volatility Ahead ?
We broke on September 11 on AAPL the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86.
IF it is a real break out, ​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge now at $113.72... With the volaility, Ill give me some room at $113.25...
China data continue to be on the weak side and will keep financial markets on the volatile side:
​China's Stocks Decline Most in Three Weeks on Slowdown Concerns
​What puzzled me here is that for Apple Shares we already broke that Falling Wedge at $113.86 but we did not break the Technical Pennant Pattern on the SPY ETF. Until that Technical Pattern being triggered on SPY, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

China concerns: China Stocks Sink Again as Growth Concerns Spur Investor Exodus

I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken on the SP500. READ: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?

Pre-Orders news was a good boost to Apple Shares on September 14; can the momentum continue? We are at crossroads here as SP500 is not that strong. So the safest way is to play the Relative Outperformance on AAPL, as long as China turmoil does not hit us back again...
​​We broke on September 11 on AAPL the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86.
IF it is a real break out, ​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge now at $113.67...

​​​​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.89 to MAX $117.80.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.67 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.00 to MAX $111.37.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2)On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.77). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.63 support and $120.39 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $101.41 as support and $118.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.67 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.89 ​​max $117.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $113.67 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.31 but above $113.67 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.67 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​00 max $111.37.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.20 - $116.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.24 and $114.54 and $113.67 Resistance :​​ $116.31 and $116.89 and $117.80

September 14 - Executive Summary  SPY Pennant Pattern ?

​​We did close above the $113.86 level on Sept 11, triggering the Bull Case.
We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge at $113.72

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above $113.25 on a Daily close.

September 14
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Market Volatility continue as illiquidity and uncertainties arise from everywhere: Brazil cut by SP will just add some volatility to the whole market... I still follow​ the CBOE Emerging Markets VIX and the YEN as proxy for Volatility.
The best technical set up here will be to​​ test the support of the Falling Wedge at $109.63 and rebound.
The question that do arise each Fridays lately: who wants to hold risk through the week end?​
​​The Market is so choppy and trendless that I will turn Neutral until we break the Falling Wedge​ because too many false signals may arise.​We are stuck within that Falling Wedge ( see 1rst chart below - red trendlines ). $109.63 and $113.86
​​​​ONLY breaking those levels on a Daily Close will get us out of that choppy trendless range.

​​​​So expectations will rise on Relative Volatility and Outperformance this week as explained in my weekly Research if you did not read it yet: September 13: Volatility Seasonals: Increased Volatility Ahead ?

We broke on September 11 on AAPL the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86.
IF it is a real break out, ​We should not be back inside the Falling Wedge now at $113.72... With the volaility, Ill give me some room at $113.25...

China data continue to be on the weak side and will keep financial markets on the volatile side:
​China's Stocks Decline Most in Three Weeks on Slowdown Concerns

​What puzzled me here is that for Apple Shares we already broke that Falling Wedge at $113.86 but we did not break the Technical Pennant Pattern on the SPY ETF. Until that Technical Pattern being triggered on SPY, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

​​​​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $115.42, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.50 to MAX $118.02.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.25 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.00 to MAX $111.37.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 11, Apple Shares closed Above the resistance trendline on a Falling Wedge then at $113.86
​2) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​3)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​4) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​5) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.77). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.10 support and $119.83 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $101.41 as support and $118.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.42 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.42 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.50 ​​max $118.02 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $113.25 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $115.42 but above $113.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​00 max $111.37.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.20 - $115.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.71 and $113.25 and $112.00 Resistance :​​ $114.53 and $115.42 and $116.50

​​
September 11 - Executive Summary Falling Wedge ?

​​The Market is so choppy and trendless that I will turn Neutral until
we break the Falling Wedge​

Technical Challenge:
​Break the Falling Wedge​ on a Daily close: $109.63 and $113.86

September 11
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Another move by China Overnight that tells me how desperate they are:
​Yuan Drops as PBOC Cuts Reference Rate by Most Since Devaluation
Yesterday we did test the 20 DMA then at $ 111.72 and almost the weekly resistance level at $114.85.
As expected, Apple Shares do poorly on most on their Special Events. A few days and we will see the outperformance as explained in the Weekly Research IF China stabilize...​
​​$109.63 becomes the support Bulls need to protect and the 20 DMA now at $111.56 on the resistance side...​​

Market Volatility continue as illiquidity and uncertainties arise from everywhere: Brazil cut by SP will just add some volatility to the whole market...
I still follow​ the CBOE Emerging Markets VIX and the YEN as proxy for Volatility.

The best technical set up here will be to​​ test the support of the Falling Wedge at $109.63 and rebound.
The question that do arise each Fridays lately: who wants to hold risk through the week end?​
​​The Market is so choppy and trendless that I will turn Neutral until we break the Falling Wedge​ because too many false signals may arise.

We are stuck within that Falling Wedge ( see 1rst chart below - red trendlines ). $109.63 and $113.86
​​​​ONLY breaking those levels on a Daily Close will get us out of that choppy trendless range.

​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for Market Makers are between the 111 and 112 handle.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.86, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.53 to MAX $114.42.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.51 to MAX $106.97.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​2)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​3) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​4) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.58 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on September 8 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.24 support and $118.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.53 ​​max $115.42 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​between $109.63 to $113.86 to iAm in a Neutral Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.86 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Neutral pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​51 max $106.97.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $112.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.42 and $110.32 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $112.78 and $113.28 and $114.53

​​September 10 - Executive Summary  Failed at the 20 DMA ?

​​We did close below the $111.72 level on Sept 9, triggering the Bear Case.
We were ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​
​​​​Only a daily close above $112.00 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​$113.31 MAX $114.02 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below the $112.00 level on a Daily close.

September 10
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Even IF we did close above the 20 DMA yesterday, I am still very cautious especially before an Apple event which historically, we had poor stock performance a few days after...
The challenge for Bulls is to stay above the 20 DMA (now at $111.72)​​ and to test the weekly Major Resistance zone at $114.85. ONLY breaking that last level will make the difference for me between a technical rebound or a more sustained move...

​Another move by China Overnight that tells me how desperate they are:
​Yuan Drops as PBOC Cuts Reference Rate by Most Since Devaluation

Yesterday we did test the 20 DMA then at $ 111.72 and almost the weekly resistance level at $114.85.
As expected, Apple Shares do poorly on most on their Special Events. A few days and we will see the outperformance as explained in the Weekly Research IF China stabilize...​

$109.63 becomes the support Bulls need to protect and the 20 DMA now at $111.56 on the resistance side...​​


​​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.00, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.31 to MAX $114.02.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.51 to MAX $106.97.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​2)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​3) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​4) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.62 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on September 8 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.24 support and $118.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.31 ​​max $114.02 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $112.00 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.00 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​51 max $106.97.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $112.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.63 and $108.51 and $106.97 Resistance :​​ $111.56 and $112.34 and $113.31

​​September 9 - Executive Summary  Above the 20 DMA ?

​​We did close above the $112.09 level on Sept 8, triggering the Bull Case.
We are ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​
​​​​Only a daily close below $111.72 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​$110.32 MAX $109.63 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above the $111.72 level on a Daily close.

September 9
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A strong rebound a the time of writing (AAPL trading at 112.00). I am quite surprise as another bad data on the Chinese economy was published: China Rebounds as Trade Data Disappoints
​Chinese stocks dropped as much as 2.2 percent, before rebounding in the last two hours of trading,suggesting state-backed support after four days of declines.
We will continue to see those wild swings unless Emerging Markets Currencies Volatility abate:
​​​SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
Also adding to that are the US Market Positions that will keep Volatility​​ high:
​The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
We did reach the $109.63 level bear target on September 4 ( did trade as low as $108.51 ) which was quite a move within a single day. We are back near the Major Resistance of the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.09 for now, which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move to MAX $114.85... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking the 20 DMA at $112.09 this week is higher indeed...

Even IF we did close above the 20 DMA yesterday, I am still very cautious especially before an Apple event which historically, we had poor stock performance a few days after...

The challenge for Bulls is to stay above the 20 DMA (now at $111.72)​​ and to test the weekly Major Resistance zone at $114.85. ONLY breaking that last level will make the difference for me between a technical rebound or a more sustained move...

​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.85, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.40 to MAX $117.65.
​​​​IF we do close today below $111.72 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $110.32 to MAX $109.63.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On September 8, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.09
​2)On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​3) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​4) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.69 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.24 support and $118.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $111.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.85 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.85 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.40 ​​max $117.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.72 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.85 but above $111.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $111.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​32 max $109.63.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.70 - $114.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.65 and $111.72 and $110.32 Resistance :​​ $113.31 and $114.53 and $114.85

​​September 8 - Executive Summary   Another Dead Cat Bounce or ?

​​We did close below the $111.54 level on Sept 3, triggering the Bear Case.
We were ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​
​​​​Only a daily close above $112.09 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​$112.96 MAX $113.31 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the $112.09 level and fail to break on a Daily close.

September 8
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​As I thought either on the SPY and Apple Shares that we were ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile: a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the stock market... We did test the 20 DMA yesterday (then at $112.66) and failed to stay above. Another weak technical sign...​​
We are back into the coal mine: Back at the $109.63 level which need to be protected by Bulls on a Daily close.It is the low of August 12 and also the support trendline from the uptrend channel.​SO Failing to do so will bring another nasty bear wave to $107.36 MAX $ 105.65.​​​Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

A strong rebound a the time of writing (AAPL trading at 112.00). I am quite surprise as another bad data on the Chinese economy was published: China Rebounds as Trade Data Disappoints
​Chinese stocks dropped as much as 2.2 percent, before rebounding in the last two hours of trading,suggesting state-backed support after four days of declines.

We will continue to see those wild swings unless Emerging Markets Currencies Volatility abate:
​​​SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
Also adding to that are the US Market Positions that will keep Volatility​​ high:
​The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?

We did reach the $109.63 level bear target on September 4 ( did trade as low as $108.51 ) which was quite a move within a single day. We are back near the Major Resistance of the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $112.09 for now, which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move to MAX $114.85... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking the 20 DMA at $112.09 this week is higher indeed...

Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.09, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.96 to MAX $113.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.51 to MAX $107.36-$105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$109.63 support and $117.29 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.09 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.09 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.96 ​​max $113.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $112.09 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.09 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​51 max $107.36.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.10 - $112.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.26 and $110.02 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $112.09 and $112.96 and $113.31


​​September 4 - Executive Summary  Failed to break the 20 DMA ?

​​We did close below the $111.54 level on Sept 3, triggering the Bear Case.
We were ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​
​​​​Only a daily close above $112.41 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​$113.33 MAX $114.53 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the $109.63 level and fail to break on a Daily close.


September 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​Yesterday I felt the Dangerous Technical set up and we reversed violently.
​Stocks Markets closed in China seems to give the green light for that strong dead cat bounce:
DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?
Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the market...
​​The challenge for Bulls are to test the $114.53 Daily resistance and the Weekly $114.85.
I think that until we break those, we are ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​


​As I thought either on the SPY and Apple Shares that we were ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.
​Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the stock market...

We did test the 20 DMA yesterday (then at $112.66) and failed to stay above. Another weak technical sign...​​

We are back into the coal mine: Back at the $109.63 level which need to be protected by Bulls on a Daily close.
It is the low of August 12 and also the support trendline from the uptrend channel.
​SO Failing to do so will bring another nasty bear wave to $107.36 MAX $ 105.65.​​​
Still expect strong Volatility and tough market conditions: caution is advised here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.41, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.33 to MAX $114.53.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.80 to MAX $107.36-$105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til September 8.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.67 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$109.63 support and $117.29 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.41 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.41 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.33 ​​max $114.53 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $112.41 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.41 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​80 max $107.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $111.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.63 and $108.80 and $107.36 Resistance :​​ $111.11 and $112.41 and $113.33
September 3 - Executive Summary  Rebound ?

​​We did close above the $109.89 level on September 2, triggering the Bull Case.
We are ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​
​​​​Only a daily close below $111.54 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​$110.02 MAX $109.63 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the $114.53 level and fail to break on a Daily close.


September 3
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​We did close below the $109.63 level on September 1, triggering the Bear Case.
It is a Dangerous Technical set up because we almost reached yesterday the $107.29 level - be cautious here...
And the Dow Transports is testing critical zone: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?
​We are catching up some AAPL underperformance vs SP500 Index yesterday.
​​Illiquidity can bring surprising levels...

Yesterday I felt the Dangerous Technical set up and we reversed violently.
​Stocks Markets closed in China seems to give the green light for that strong dead cat bounce:
DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?

Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the market...

​​The challenge for Bulls are to test the $114.53 Daily resistance and the Weekly $114.85.
I think that until we break those, we are ONLY in a Dead Cat Bounce Wave.​


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.59, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.53 to MAX $115.42.
​​​​IF we do close today below $111.54, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $110.02 to MAX $109.63.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleeding Trade Pattern til September 3.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.60 ( with strongerer prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.97). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on September 1 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.27 support and $118.91 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $111.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.59 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.59 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.53 ​​max $115.42 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.59 but above $111.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $111.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​02 max $109.63.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.10 - $114.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.66 and $111.54 and $110.02 Resistance :​​ $113.59 and $114.53 and $115.42



​​September 2 - Executive Summary  Dangerous Set Up ?

​​We did close below the $109.63 level on September 1, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above $109.89 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​$111.90 MAX $112.81 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the $109.89 level and fail to break on a Daily close.


September 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Apple Shares failed to stay above the 20 DMA then at $113.42 on August 31 and mostly also the 113.25 resistance trendline. Since August 27 we have been testing thta zone... Now Bulls need to protect at all costs the $109.63 level on a Daily basis. SPY confirmed the dead cat bounce wave only...
China and Emerging Markets Turmoil continue...


​We did close below the $109.63 level on September 1, triggering the Bear Case.
It is a Dangerous Technical set up because we almost reached yesterday the $107.29 level - be cautious here...
And the Dow Transports is testing critical zone: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?

​​We are catching up some AAPL underperformance vs SP500 Index yesterday.
​​Illiquidity can bring surprising levels...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $109.89, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $111.90 to MAX $112.81.
​​​​IF we do close today below $105.65, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $105.05 to MAX $103.12.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleeding Trade Pattern til September 3.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.61 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.96). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on September 1 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.27 support and $118.91 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $105.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.89 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.89 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.90 ​​max $112.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $109.89 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $109.89 but above $105.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $105.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​05 max $103.12.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $110.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.80 and $107.36 and $105.65 Resistance :​​ $109.89 and $111.90 and $112.81

​​September 1 - Executive Summary   20 DMA Rejected ?

​​ We did close above the $104.63 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below $109.63 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​$108.27 MAX $107.29 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above the $109.63 level on a Daily close


September 1​
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $104.63 on August 26 then triggering the Bull Phase...​
For now it is only a dead cat bounce...

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​For those who did not read yet the Weekly Research:
​Apple Shares Behavior Before the September Event and after ?
​​​Apple Shares ​tested and unable to break the $113.25 Daily resistance zone on August 28. We need to focus also on the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 113.42....
China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares
But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...​​ Apple Shares slightly below the performance of the Mighty SP500 Index, so some tiny Apple Shares buying against the Index today at month end...

Apple Shares failed to stay above the 20 DMA then at $113.42 on August 31 and mostly also the 113.25 resistance trendline. Since August 27 we have been testing thta zone... Now Bulls need to protect at all costs the $109.63 level on a Daily basis. SPY confirmed the dead cat bounce wave only...

China and Emerging Markets Turmoil continue...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.35 to MAX $115.42.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.27 to MAX $105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleeding Trade Pattern til September 3.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.42 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.89 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$111.27 support and $118.91 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.35 ​​max $116.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.25 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​27 max $105.65.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 31 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.00 - $112.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.02 and $109.63 and $107.29 Resistance :​​ $111.11 and $112.65 and $113.25


​​August 31 - Executive Summary

​​ We did close above the $104.63 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below $109.63 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​$108.27 MAX $105.65 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $113.42​​


August 31​
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $104.63 on August 26 then triggering the Bull Phase...​
For now it is only a dead cat bounce...

​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 1965 zone.
​The second gap is a lot higher at the 2025 zone. We need a daily close above 1965 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...​
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33. All planets are aligned here...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
​​So the same question arise to me; who will want to hold risk through the week end; today s close is crucial for market sentiment...​​
Apple Shares ​tested and rejected the $113.25 Daily resistance on August 27. We need to focus also on the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 113.82....
Weekly Options Magnet ; the least pain for Market Makers are at the $111 handle today.​​

For those who did not read yet the Weekly Research:
​Apple Shares Behavior Before the September Event and after ?

​​​​Apple Shares ​tested and unable to break the $113.25 Daily resistance zone on August 28. We need to focus also on the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 113.42....

China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares

But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...​​ Apple Shares slightly below the performance of the Mighty SP500 Index, so some tiny Apple Shares buying against the Index today at month end...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.35 to MAX $115.42.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.27 to MAX $105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Bleeding Trade Pattern til August 31.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.52 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.89 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$109.80 support and $117.35 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $102.90 as support and $117.65 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.42 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.35 ​​max $116.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.25 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​27 max $105.65.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.00 - $113.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.10 and $111.03 and $110.02 Resistance :​​ $113.25 and $114.35 and $115.42

​​
August 28 Tricky Friday ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $104.63 on August 26 then triggering the Bull Phase...​
For now it is only a dead cat bounce...

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​China intervene into their stock market to stabilize the situation; we are within ONLY a dead cat bounce for now as we have to test the gaps done on the SP500: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
For Apple Shares it may be going to test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $114.30 and see what s going on from there....
​​Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 1965 zone.
​The second gap is a lot higher at the 2025 zone. We need a daily close above 1965 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...​

Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33. All planets are aligned here...

So the same question arise to me; who will want to hold risk through the week end; today s close is crucial for market sentiment...​​

Apple Shares ​tested and rejected the $113.25 Daily resistance on August 27. We need to focus also on the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 113.82....

Weekly Options Magnet ; the least pain for Market Makers are at the $111 handle today.​​

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.82 to MAX $115.88.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.27 to MAX $105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til August 29.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
4) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​5) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
6) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
7) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.52 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.94 to 0.89). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with ​$108.27 support and $115.88 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 21 a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.
​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $104.25 as support and $118.62 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.30 ​​max $116.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.25 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​27 max $105.65.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $113.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.63 and $110.02 and $108.27 Resistance :​​ $113.25 and $113.82 and $114.50

​​
August 27 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $104.63 on August 26 then triggering the Bull Phase...​
For now it is only a dead cat bounce...

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​China and Emerging Markets Financial Turmoil continue...
We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the $111.63 resistance zone and failed.
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect ​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets... Many tried Bottom Fishing...
The last 30 minutes of trading before the close yesterday remind us how still fragile and illiquid the market is...​
​Today I will look at IF we make a higher low and or a lower high pattern on a daily basis.

China intervene into their stock market to stabilize the situation; we are within ONLY a dead cat bounce for now as we have to test the gaps done on the SP500: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?

For Apple Shares it may be going to test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $114.30 and see what s going on from there....

​​Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.30 to MAX $116.40.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $107.96 to MAX $105.65.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til August 29.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
4) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​5) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
6) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
7) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.47 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.94). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on August 21 a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.
​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $104.25 as support and $118.62 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.30 ​​max $116.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.63 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.25 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​96 max $105.65.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $113.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.11 and $109.63 and $107.96 Resistance :​​ $112.10 and $113.25 and $114.30

​​
August 26 Bottom Fishing ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $115.50 on August 19 then triggering the Bear Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave; I
​meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave... We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern
​here​ to MAX $111.63​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
​​​Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
We probably saw the low yesterday at $92.00 but does not mean that risk reward is there to chase prices when high Volatility unless doing spread options...

​​​​​​​China and Emerging Markets Financial Turmoil continue...

​​We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the $111.63 resistance zone and failed.

WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect ​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets... Many tried Bottom Fishing...

The last 30 minutes of trading before the close yesterday remind us how still fragile and illiquid the market is...​

​​Today I will look at IF we make a higher low and or a lower high pattern on a daily basis.

​​IF we do close today above $104.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $111.63.
​​​​IF we do close today below $101.27, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $99.44 to MAX $98.31.

​​​​​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til August 29.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
4) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​5) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
6) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
7) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.66 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.98 to 0.97). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on August 21 a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.
​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $104.25 as support and $118.62 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $101.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $104.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $105.65 ​​max $109.63 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $104.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $104.63 but above $101.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $103.74 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​44 max $98.31.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.60 - $109.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $104.63 and $103.50 and $104.63 Resistance :​​ $106.26 and $108.20 and $109.63
​​
August 25  The iCapitulation ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $115.50 on August 19 then triggering the Bear Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​
​​​Weekly Research ( if you did not read it yet ); From Emerging Markets Concerns to Emerging Turmoil
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there... The Best Technical set up for me is to see a capitulation wave followed by a strong rebound...
​​​All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails
Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$. The perfect storm for Apple: the iMeltdown...
CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Until I see price stabilization, I will NOT play the Hero trying to pick up the bottom...​

We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave; I meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave...
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern here​ to MAX $111.63
​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...

​​​Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
We probably saw the low yesterday at $92.00 but does not mean that risk reward is there to chase prices when high Volatility unless doing spread options...

​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $104.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $111.63.
​​​​IF we do close today below $101.27, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $99.44 to MAX $98.31.

​​​​Interesting to observe that Relative Volatility is cratering below the 200 DMA: that tells me a lot of options positions being closed... See 4rth Chart Below.

​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til August 29.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
4) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​5) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
6) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
7) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.54 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.99 to 0.98). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on August 21 a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.
​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $104.25 as support and $118.62 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $101.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $104.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $105.65 ​​max $109.32 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $104.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $104.63 but above $101.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $103.74 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​44 max $98.31.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.60 - $111.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.27 and $106.26 and $105.65 Resistance :​​ $109.63 and $111.63 and $113.25

​​
August 24 The iMeltdown ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $115.50 on August 19 then triggering the Bear Phase...​

​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​On SP500 future: ​We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving
​Average ) on August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for Bulls:
​a ​Support Trendline then at 2038. Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions. Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow... EEM and CEW ETFsWe did close below $113.94 on August 20, bringing the nasty bear move risk on:
​risk is $109.14 to $108.40 zone As long as we are below $113.94, the risk of a slippage towards the Daily and Weekly Support Trendlines is alive.​​The Least Pain for Market Makers in the Weekly Options Magnet is between 113 and 114 handle.
Open Positions are light ( Summer Trading ) so Magnet Impact will be ​​a lot less than usual...

​​Weekly Research ( if you did not read it yet ); From Emerging Markets Concerns to Emerging Turmoil

WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...

​​​All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails

Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$. The perfect storm for Apple: the iMeltdown...

​​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Until I see price stabilization, I will NOT play the Hero trying to pick up the bottom...​

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $104.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $105.65 to MAX $109.32.
​​​​IF we do close today below $101.27, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $99.44 to MAX $98.31.

​​​​Interesting to observe that Relative Volatility is cratering below the 200 DMA: that tells me a lot of options positions being closed... See 4rth Chart Below.

​​We need a weekly close above the $114.85 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grinding Trade Pattern til August 29.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On August 20, Apple Shares closed Below the Major Support Trendline then at $113.94
​​​​​​​2) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​3) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
4) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​5) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
6) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
7) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.77 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.99). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on August 21 a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 27 with $104.25 as support and $118.62 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $101.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $104.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $105.65 ​​max $109.32 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $104.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $104.63 but above $101.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $103.74 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​44 max $98.31.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.50 - $105.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.27 and $99.44 and $98.31 Resistance :​​ $103.74 and $104.63 and $105.65
​​
August 21 Broken Support Trendline ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $115.50 on August 19 then triggering the Bear Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​For the SP500 fut: Not Only on August 19 ( with the still
​Dovish FOMC ) we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was
​a huge market rejection. For Apple, we failed to reach the Resistance Trendline then at $116.76 and had a Daily close below the August 12 Capitulation Day at $115,24.
Last Line of Defense here is the $113.94; breaking that on a Daily close will bring a nasty bear move.​​

On SP500 future: ​We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for Bulls: a ​Support Trendline then at 2038. Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.

Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow... EEM and CEW ETFs

We did close below $113.94 on August 20, bringing the nasty bear move risk on:
​risk is $109.14 to $108.40 zoneAs long as we are below $113.94, the risk of a slippage towards the Daily and Weekly Support Trendlines is alive.
​​
The Least Pain for Market Makers in the Weekly Options Magnet is between 113 and 114 handle.
Open Positions are light ( Summer Trading ) so Magnet Impact will be ​​a lot less than usual...
​​
​​IF we do close today above $113.94, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.68 to MAX $115.42.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.66, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.14 to MAX $108.20.

​​​​Interesting to observe that Relative Volatility is cratering below the 200 DMA: that tells me a lot of options positions being closed... See 4rth Chart Below.

​​We need a weekly close above the $117.19 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til August 21.

​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.80 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.83 to 0.97). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We within a new downtrend channel that started on August 18 with ​$110.66 support and $114.68 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 20 an uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$107.29 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.24 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $110.66 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.94 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.94 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.68 ​​max $115.42 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $113.94 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.94 but above $110.66 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.66 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​14 max $108.20.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.70 - $113.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.63 and $110.66 and $109.14 Resistance :​​ $112.80 and $113.94 and $114.68
​​
​August 20 Unable at the Resistance Trendline ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $115.50 on August 19 then triggering the Bear Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ China By breaking on August 17 the resistance trendline
​then at $116.97, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that
​never came. And we closed below the Support Level of $116.78 Which is giving me another caution signal on the market... Today s resistance level is $116.76...
Also, on a relative performance ( AAPL vs SP500 Index ), we failed to get back above the Resistance Trendline.
( See 3rd chart - Blue Trendline )​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​For the SP500 fut: Not Only on August 19 ( with the still Dovish FOMC ) we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was a huge market rejection. For Apple, we failed to reach the Resistance Trendline then at $116.76 and had a Daily close below the August 12 Capitulation Day at $115,24.

Last Line of Defense here is the $113.94; breaking that on a Daily close will bring a nasty bear move.​​


​​IF we do close today above $116.54, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.70 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.94, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.11 to MAX $111.42.

​​​​We need a weekly close above the $117.19 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til August 21.


​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.95 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.89 to 0.83). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​

​Now back to technicals:​​

We within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$115.35 support and $121.21 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$107.29 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 14 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$108.40 support and $115.74 as resistance.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.24 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.54 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.70 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.54 but above $113.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​11 max $111.42.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.70 - $115.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.94 and $113.25 and $112.11 Resistance :​​ $115.24 and $116.54 and $117.70


August 19 NO Follow Through ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $114.50 on August 12 then triggering the Bull Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ China Turmoil continue:
​China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern
We did close above the $116.97 on August 17, making the difference between a dead cat bounce or a more stronger upwave towards the 20 DMA (now at $119.71) to MAX the 200 DMA (now at $121,51).
Next challenge for Bulls is the Resistance Trendline at $118.31... and need to protect $113.94 at all costs in any China Turmoil Reaction.

By breaking on August 17 the resistance trendline then at $116.97, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that never came. And we closed below the Support Level of $116.78 Which is giving me another caution signal on the market... Today s resistance level is $116.76...

Also, on a relative performance ( AAPL vs SP500 Index ), we failed to get back above the Resistance Trendline.
( See 3rd chart - Blue Trendline )​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $118.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $119.22 to MAX $119.71.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.50, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.54 to MAX $113.94.

​​​​We need a weekly close above the $117.19 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til August 21.


​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.12 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.89). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​

​Now back to technicals:​​

We within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$114.50 support and $120.32 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$107.29 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 14 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$108.40 support and $115.74 as resistance.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.24 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $115.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.22 ​​max $119.71 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $115.50 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.31 but above $115.50 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.50 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​54 max $113.94.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.40 - $116.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.77 and $115.15 and $113.94 Resistance :​​ $116.76 and $117.44 and $118.31
​​​
August 18 China Turmoil ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $114.50 on August 12 then triggering the Bull Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ We almost tested the support trendline at $113.94 last
​Friday and rebouded from there - that was the Weekly Options Magnet.
​ I thought more of a close near $114.50 last Friday honestly.​For me, we are in a Dead Cat bounce as long as we don t get a daily close above that ​​Large Downward Channel - at $116.97 for Monday August 17. This is coming from my Weekly Research ( if you did not read it yet...)

China Turmoil continue: China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern

We did close above the $116.97 on August 17, making the difference between a dead cat bounce or a more stronger upwave towards the 20 DMA (now at $119.71) to MAX the 200 DMA (now at $121,51).

Next challenge for Bulls is the Resistance Trendline at $118.31... and need to protect $113.94 at all costs in any China Turmoil Reaction.

​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $118.31, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $119.22 to MAX $119.71.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.50, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.54 to MAX $113.94.

​​​​We need a weekly close above the $117.19 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that Macro bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til August 21.


​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.28 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​

​Now back to technicals:​​

We within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with ​$117.47 support and $123.48 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$107.29 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 14 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$108.40 support and $115.74 as resistance.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.24 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $115.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.31 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.31 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.22 ​​max $119.71 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $115.50 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $118.31 but above $115.50 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.50 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​54 max $113.94.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.50 - $117.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.78 and $115.50 and $114.54 Resistance :​​ $117.70 and $118.31 and $119.22


​​​​August 17 Support Trendline Tested ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $114.50 on August 12 then triggering the Bull Phase...​

​Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ On SP500 futures, We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day
​Moving Averages ) and both were rejected and we failed to close above the
​50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2096.5 as resistance..
Same for Apple as we did test on August 13 the Resistance Trendline form the downward channel then at $116.01 ( $115.72 for today ) and failed to stay above. That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with $110.32 support and $115.72 as resistance..
SO $113.94 support becomes crucial for Bulls here. ​Also take note that the least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet today is the $114 handle.
​​​​
We almost tested the support trendline at $113.94 last Friday and rebouded from there - that was the Weekly Options Magnet. I thought more of a close near $114.50 last Friday honestly.

​For me, we are in a Dead Cat bounce as long as we don t get a daily close above that ​​Large Downward Channel - at $116.97 for Monday August 17. This is coming from my Weekly Research ( if you did not read it yet...)

​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.70 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $114.54, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.94 to MAX $112.11.

​​​​We need a weekly close above the $117.19 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17 and a Range trade til the 21 after.


​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.35 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.69 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$107.29 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 14 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$108.40 support and $115.74 as resistance.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.24 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $114.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.72 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.71 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.97 but above $115.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​94 max $112.11.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.00 - $116.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.42 and $114.54 and $113.94 Resistance :​​ $116.40 and $116.97 and $117.70