TRADING APPLE

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APPLE Daily Technicals - Resistance Trendline Rejection ?   
 ( From TradingView  )
August 14
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


NEW PAGE LINKS starting August 17​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $114.50 on August 12 then triggering the Bull Phase...


​Yesterd
ay I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​As the Volatilty is extreme and play yo-yo on AAPL. We did test the 200 DMA on August 12 on SP500 future and rebounded violently - a good technical sign indeed. I still believe we are within that downward channel and almost reached this morning the resistance trendline now at 2097.5. That is why I am very cautious as we may, like August 10, only be in a dead cat bounce... Yesterday bid down move (capitulation phase) have cleared the weak hands out for now... Next Big Challenge for Bulls is to close bove the resistance trendline of a downward channel at $117.37.​​

On SP500 futures, We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages ) and both were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..

Same for Apple as we did test on August 13 the Resistance Trendline form the downward channel then at $116.01 ( $115.72 for today ) and failed to stay above. That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with $110.32 support and $115.72 as resistance..

SO $113.94 support becomes crucial for Bulls here. ​Also take note that the least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet today is the $114 handle.
​​​​
​IF we do close today above $115.72, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.71 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.94, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.33 to MAX $112.11.

​​​​We failed to stay above on a weekly basis the $117.57 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56

​4
)
​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.41 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;  (from  0.63 to 0.69). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on August 4with ​$110.32 support and $115.72 as resistance.

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with ​$102.44 support and $116.71 as resistance.

Support Trendline from the downtrend channel that started on July 23 at $112.11.

​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.47 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.72 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​


Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.72 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.71 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $113.94 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $115.72 but above $113.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​33 max $112.11.

Apple shares undeperformed the SP500 on August 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.00 - $115.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.50 and $113.94 and $113.33       Resistance :​​ $115.72 and  $116.71 and $118.31


​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

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RATIO AAPL​ Stock over SPX ( Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )


​ AAPL​ Stock Price Daily  ( Daily Candle Chart )

AAPL Relative Volatility ( Candle Chart )
​7 DMA ( Yellow Line )

AAPL​ Stock Price Daily ( Weekly Candle Chart )


​​August 13 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

NEW PAGE LINKS starting August 17​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $114.50 on August 12 then triggering the Bull Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote:
China continue to put pressure and volatility in financial markets; for Apple, it is a double whammy:
1) ​China devalue the yuan and shift to a more market-determined rate sparked concern that the world’s second-largest economy is faltering.
2) But mainly the currency impact on all emerging markets will be a negative on future AAPL Earnings
Expect volatility still at extreme today - not as much as yesterday though

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​As the Volatilty is extreme and play yo-yo on AAPL. We did test the 200 DMA on August 12 on SP500 future and rebounded violently - a good technical sign indeed. I still believe we are within that downward channel and almost reached this morning the resistance trendline now at 2097.5. That is why I am very cautious as we may, like August 10, only be in a dead cat bounce... Yesterday bid down move (capitulation phase) have cleared the weak hands out for now...

Next Big Challenge for Bulls is to close bove the resistance trendline of a downward channel at $117.37.​​

​​IF we do close today above $116.01, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.37 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.94, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $113.33 to MAX $112.11.

​​​​We failed to stay above on a weekly basis the $117.57 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 200 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.52 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.67 to 0.63). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$108.65 support and $117.37 as resistance.

Resistance Trendline from the downtrend channel that started on July 23 at $117.37.

​​​​We broke on August 11 a new uptrend channel that started on August 5 with ​$116.94 support and $122.30 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$111.35 support and $116.79 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.47 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.01 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.01 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.37 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.01 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.01 but above $113.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​84 max $109.38.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.00 - $116.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.13 and $114.50 and $113.33 Resistance :​​ $116.01 and $117.37 and $118.31


August 12 China Concerns ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the $116.94 on August 11 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation
​We had that reversal signal : But be careful here as I think we have a Daily
​Dead Cat Bounce and China Turmoil continue and for me ONLY breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at $ 121.27 ) will give a real Bull Impulse towards $122.99 MAX $125.35...
So in Summary, the best technical scenario is to test the 200 DMA and fail to break...$121.27 is the key for the next big set up...​​

China continue to put pressure and volatility in financial markets; for Apple, it is a double whammy:
1) ​China devalue the yuan and shift to a more market-determined rate sparked concern that the world’s second-largest economy is faltering.
2) But mainly the currency impact on all emerging markets will be a negative on future AAPL Earnings

Expect volatility still at extreme today - not as much as yesterday though )

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $114.50, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $116.25 to MAX $117.20.
​​​​IF we do close today below $112.11, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $110.84 to MAX $109.38.

​​​​We failed to stay above on a weekly basis the $117.57 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.62 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.68 to 0.67). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$110.84 support and $116.25 as resistance.

Resistance Trendline from the downtrend channel that started on July 21 at $114.50.

​​​​We broke on August 11 a new uptrend channel that started on August 5 with ​$116.94 support and $122.30 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$111.35 support and $116.79 as resistance.

We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with ​$107.02 support and $116.79 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.47 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $112.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.50 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.25 ​​max $117.20 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $114.50 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $114.50 but above $112.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $112.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​84 max $109.38.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.00 - $113.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.11 and $110.84 and $109.38 Resistance :​​ $113.25 and $113.96 and $114.50
​​​

​​August 11 Daily Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the $116.79 on August 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​No surprise from NFP neither the Weekly Options Magnet
​last Friday...​I think we are near reversal as SP500 fut reached its short term
​target of ​​2067 and Seasonals called for a consolidation week. Also Shanghai is up +4.9% and will gives some short term stress reliefs.​​​​​Remember also that ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on August 11 til August 20 according to the past 5 years. So the big sell off last week will be a great opportunity within the next 2 days on the Bull side; we re not there yet but getting very close. Here I will not be long Volatility ( unless spread options ) as we reached on August 4 level last seen since October 2013 and time decay is huge...For those whot did not read yet my Weekly Research: ​Big Picture: A Long Path to Recovery

​​China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation

We had that reversal signal : But be careful here as I think we have a Daily Dead Cat Bounce and China Turmoil continue and for me ONLY breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at $ 121.27 ) will give a real Bull Impulse towards $122.99 MAX $125.35...

So in Summary, the best technical scenario is to test the 200 DMA and fail to break...$121.27 is the key for the next big set up...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $121.27 to MAX $122.30.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.94, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.53 to MAX $115.51.

​​​​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $117.57 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend. We did on August 10...

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.41 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.75 to 0.68). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 5 with ​$116.94 support and $122.30 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$111.35 support and $116.79 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$111.67 support and $119.35 as resistance.

We broke on August 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with ​$107.02 support and $116.79 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.47 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $116.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.27 ​​max $122.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.94 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $116.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​53 max $115.51.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.30 - $120.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.31 and $117.52 and $116.53 Resistance :​​ $119.22 and $119.99 and $121.27


​​August 10 Near Reversal ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Last Friay I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have today the Non Farm Payrolls this morning (NFP):
​Reported job creation in July is the second weakest of any month since the
​recovery began more than six years ago. Also, for the Weekly options magnet, the least pain for Market Makers is the $115 handle, so not much to expect from there...

No surprise from NFP neither the Weekly Options Magnet last Friday...​

I think we are near reversal as SP500 fut reached its short term target of ​​2067 and Seasonals called for a consolidation week. Also Shanghai is up +4.9% and will gives some short term stress reliefs.

​​​​​Remember also that ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on August 11 til August 20 according to the past 5 years. So the big sell off last week will be a great opportunity within the next 2 days on the Bull side; we re not there yet but getting very close. Here I will not be long Volatility ( unless spread options ) as we reached on August 4 level last seen since October 2013 and time decay is huge...
For those whot did not read yet my Weekly Research: ​Big Picture: A Long Path to Recovery


So a Daily close today below $113.96 will tell me that pressure is still on and that the street is not done on rebalancing Apple in their portfolio: next important supports ​​at $112.11 and $111.56.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.79, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.44 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.96, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.11 to MAX $111.56.

​​​​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $117.57 level ( which is the old weekly downtrend channel resistance level now )​​ to change that bear behavior trend.

​Seasonals are in a Grind Pattern til August 17.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​


​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.33 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.75). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$111.35 support and $116.79 as resistance.

​​We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$111.67 support and $119.35 as resistance.

We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with ​$107.02 support and $116.79 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $111.13 as support and $124.47 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.96 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.79 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.79 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.44 ​​max $118.31 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.79 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.79 but above $113.96 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.96 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​11 max $111.56.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.70 - $116.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.31 and $114.50 and $113.96 Resistance :​​ $116.79 and $117.44 and $118.31

August 7 NFP and Options Magnet ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesteray I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We had that dead cat bounce relief, a lot more violent
​than expected as illiquidity continue to weight on the summer markets.
​We did test the $117.28 reversal level and was rejected: a classic Bull Trap. Now, we may undertake a consolidation phase between $112.10 and $117.28 for a few trading sessions... Staying above $113.97 today will be a sign of strenght. SP500 is still in a slow bleed technical pattern.

We have today the Non Farm Payrolls this morning (NFP): Reported job creation in July is the second weakest of any month since the recovery began more than six years ago. Also, for the Weekly options magnet, the least pain for Market Makers is the $115 handle, so not much to expect from there...

​NFP MACRO TECH LEVELS:
​Support: $113.97 and $112.11 and $111.56 Resistance: $116.96 and $117.95 and $118.31
So IF no big surprise from the NFP, it will be a nother consolidation day for Apple Shares: $113.97 to $116.96.

​​​​​Remember also that ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on August 11 til August 20 according to the past 5 years. So the big sell off here will be a great opportunity within the next 5 days on the Bull side; we re not there yet but getting closer. Here I will not be long Volatility ( unless spread options ) as we reached level last seen since October 2013 and time decay is huge...

So a Daily close today below $113.97 will tell me that pressure is still on and that the street is not done on rebalancing Apple in their portfolio: next important supports ​​at $112.11 and $111.56.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.96, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.95 to MAX $118.31.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.97, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.11 to MAX $111.56.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed til August 8.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.41 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.48 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on August 4 with ​$111.56 support and $116.96 as resistance.

​​We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$111.26 support and $120.04 as resistance.

Also, we have a new Resistance Trendline that started back on ​​July 21 at $118.02.

​​We broke on August 4 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$117.45 support and $121.71 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $116.08 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.97 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.96 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.96 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 ​​max $119.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.96 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.96 but above $113.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.97 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​11 max $111.56.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.00 - $116.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.97 and $112.11 and $111.56 Resistance :​​ $115.31 and $116.50 and $116.96

​​August 6 Bull Trap ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesteray I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We had on August 4 the Perfect Storm scenario:
​1) SP500 in a corrextion phase 2) Poor Liquidity
3) AAPL broke on August 3 rd the 200 DMA then at $120.75​​​
So the way market trade yesterday, with a strong bear impulse, very high volume and a huge spike in Relative Volatility tells me that the biggest part of the decline in terms of $ per day is behind us. So more of a slow bleed than​​ a big push downward. It will not be a direct path downward as we close too near of my abyss technical level of $114.77 on August 3 as I expect some dead cat bounce: already, my ​Daily iTrendicator on Apple reached oversold level... Not an obvious path from here....

We had that dead cat bounce relief, a lot more violent than expected as illiquidity continue to weight on the summer markets. We did test the $117.28 reversal level and was rejected: a classic Bull Trap. Now, we may undertake a consolidation phase between $112.10 and $117.28 for a few trading sessions... Staying above $113.97 today will be a sign of strenght. SP500 is still in a slow bleed technical pattern.

​Remember also that ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on August 11 til August 20 according to the past 5 years. So the big sell off here will be a great opportunity within the next 7 days on the Bull side; we re not there yet. Here I will not be long Volatility ( unless spread options ) as we reached level last seen since October 2013 and time decay especially on one week options is huge...

So a Daily close today below $113.97 will tell me that pressure is still on and that the street is not done on rebalancing Apple in their portfolio: next important supports ​​at $112.11 and $111.27.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.28, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $119.22.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.97, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.11 to MAX $111.27.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed til August 8.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.53 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.01 to 0.48). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now witihn a downtrend channel that started on July 23 with ​$111.93 support and $120.62 as resistance.

Also, we have a new Resistance Trendline that started back on ​​July 21 at $119.06.

​​We broke on August 4 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$117.45 support and $121.71 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $116.08 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.97 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.28 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.28 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 ​​max $119.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.28 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.28 but above $113.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.97 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​11 max $111.27.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.00 - $117.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.31 and $113.97 and $112.11 Resistance :​​ $116.08 and $117.28 and $118.31
August 5 The Perfect Storm ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesteray I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​That will be a good test for the Bears today as the
​Shanghai rebound of +3.7% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2091.5 is still raging... My feel is that as long as we are below the 200 DMA on a daily close on AAPL Shares, they will use each uptick to sell... Interesting to observe that we have a negative correlation factor between AAPL Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index: that shows a market dislocation here...
​​A lot of Technical Damage have been done on AAPL:
1) Broke the 200 DMA on August 3rd then at $120.75 (now at $120.86)​
2) Broke the Support Trendline that started back on January 16 at $121.21 also on August 3
3) Monthly Channel broken as explained in my Weekly Research on July 31
SO expect volatility to prevail and the 200 DMA (now at $120.86) will become a Major Resistance Level.
​​​​​But the risk going forward is the $114.77 zone. IF we break that level, then the $103 to $106 zone is within reach...

We had on August 4 the Perfect Storm scenario: 1) SP500 in a corrextion phase 2) Poor Liquidity
3) AAPL broke on August 3 rd the 200 DMA then at $120.75​​​

So the way market trade yesterday, with a strong bear impulse, very high volume and a huge spike in Relative Volatility tells me that the biggest part of the decline in terms of $ per day is behind us. So more of a slow bleed than​​ a big push downward. It will not be a direct path downward as we close too near of my abyss technical level of $114.77 on August 3 as I expect some dead cat bounce: already, my ​Daily iTrendicator on Apple reached oversold level... Not an obvious path from here....

Remember also that ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on August 11 til August 20 according to the past 5 years. So the big sell off here will be a great opportunity within the next 10 days on the Bull side; we re not there yet. Here I will not be long Volatility ( unless spread options ) as we reached level last seen since October 2013 and time decay especially on one week options is huge...

So a Daily close today below $113.97 will tell me that pressure is still on and that the street is not done on rebalancing Apple in their portfolio: next important supports ​​at $111.27 and $109.35.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.28, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.31 to MAX $119.22.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.25, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $112.11 to MAX $111.27.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed til August 8.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.64 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.32 to -0.01). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on August 4 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$117.45 support and $121.71 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $116.08 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $113.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.28 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.28 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.31 ​​max $119.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.28 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.28 but above $113.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$112.​11 max $111.27.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.80 - $115.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.25 and $112.11 and $111.27 Resistance :​​ $114.77 and $116.08 and $117.28


​​August 4 Damage Report ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesteray I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​Shanghai still down this morning....​​Apple Shares are facing
​the Last Lines of Defense here as explained in my Weekly Research (if you
​did not read it yet ): 200 DMA and August Seasonals: Molotov Cocktail ?
In summary: There is still 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:
1) The Support Trendline that started back on January 16 with $ 121.21 as level
​( see 1rst chart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.75
The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

That will be a good test for the Bears today as the Shanghai rebound of +3.7% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2091.5 is still raging... My feel is that as long as we are below the 200 DMA on a daily close on AAPL Shares, they will use each uptick to sell... Interesting to observe that we have a negative correlation factor between AAPL Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index: that shows a market dislocation here...

​​A lot of Technical Damage have been done on AAPL:
1) Broke the 200 DMA on August 3rd then at $120.75 (now at $120.86)​
2) Broke the Support Trendline that started back on January 16 at $121.21 also on August 3
3) Monthly Channel broken as explained in my Weekly Research on July 31

SO expect volatility to prevail and the 200 DMA (now at $120.86) will become a Major Resistance Level.
​​​​​But the risk going forward is the $114.77 zone. IF we break that level, then the $103 to $106 zone is within reach...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.36, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.64 to MAX $123.91.
​​​​IF we do close today below $118.31, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.85 to MAX $114.77.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed til August 8.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​1) On August 3, closed ​below the 2000 DMA then at $120.75
​2) On July 30, we broke on the downside the 200 DMA on the ratio of AAPL vs SP500 Index
3) ​On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​4) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
5) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
6) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.47 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.20 to -0.32). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$117.45 support and $121.71 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 3 a downtrend channel that started on July 28 with ​$120.75 support and $122.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $116.08 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $118.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.36 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.36 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $122.64 ​​max $123.91 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.36 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.36 but above $118.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​85 max $114.77.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.90 - $119.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.52 and $116.85 and $114.77 Resistance :​​ $118.31 and $119.18 and $120.25

​​August 3 Last Defensive Lin​es ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​We are facing a Tricky Month End as International Players
​should be sellers of US Equities ( Strong performance of the US Dollar Index
​in July ) and a tiny portfolio rebalancing from Domestic players as they should sell US Equities to buy some Bonds. And usually the timing of it is between 10.00 to 11.30 NY Time for Intl Players and last 30 minutes for US Participants. Also, Apple Shares underperformance in July (-2.44% vs +2.21% for SP500 ) make it an easy rebalance stock today... Let s call it a Month End Dead Cat Bounce... ​​$123.00 tp $123.50... ( See 5th chart below ) The Least Pain for Weekly Option Magnet is the $123 handle, so not much to expect from there today...​​
There is still 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:
1) The Support Trendline that started back on July 10 with $ 122.44 as level
​( see 1rst cart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.64
The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

Shanghai still down this morning....

​​Apple Shares are facing the Last Lines of Defense here as explained in my Weekly Research (if you did not read it yet ): 200 DMA and August Seasonals: Molotov Cocktail ?

In summary: There is still 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:
1) The Support Trendline that started back on January 16 with $ 121.21 as level
​( see 1rst chart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.75
The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.50​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $123.91 to MAX $124.45.
​​​​IF we do close today below $121.21, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $120.25 to MAX $118.31.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
We are breaking the Support Trendline on that Donward Channel and the 200 DMA on it...​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed til August 8.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.29 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.18 to -0.20). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new an downtrend channel that started on July 28 with ​$120.75 support and $122.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $116.08 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $121.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.50 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $123.91 ​​max $124.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $123.50 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.50 but above $121.21 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $121.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​75 max $118.31.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 31 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $120.50 - $122.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $121.21 and $120.75 and $120.25 Resistance :​​ $122.12 and $122.57 and $123.50

July 31 D-Day ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​The Shangai down this morning will not help the Apple
​case; I still think we may have outperformance til month end on Apple Shares vs the Mighty SP500 Index...
There is 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:1) The Support Trendline that started back on July 10 with $ 122.38 as level​( see 1rst cart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.53
The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

We are facing a Tricky Month End as International Players should be sellers of US Equities ( Strong performance of the US Dollar Index in July ) and a tiny portfolio rebalancing from Domestic players as they should sell US Equities to buy some Bonds. And usually the timing of it is between 10.00 to 11.30 NY Time for Intl Players and last 30 minutes for US Participants.
Also, Apple Shares underperformance in July (-2.44% vs +2.21% for SP500 ) make it an easy rebalance stock today... Let s call it a Month End Dead Cat Bounce... ​​$123.00 tp $123.50... ( See 5th chart below )
The Least Pain for Weekly Option Magnet is the $123 handle, so not much to expect from there today...​​

There is still 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:
1) The Support Trendline that started back on July 10 with $ 122.44 as level
​( see 1rst cart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.64
The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.91​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $124.33 to MAX $125.48.
​​​​IF we do close today below $122.44, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $121.21 to MAX $120.64.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
We are breaking the Support Trendline on that Donward Channel and the 200 DMA on it...​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​

​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.98 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.61 to 0.18). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new an downtrend channel that started on July 28 with ​$121.32 support and $122.70 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 29 an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$123.54 support and $128.10 as resistance.

We broke on July 30 a new uptrend channel that started on July 27 with ​$123.35 support and $124.90 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $123.48 as support and $134.54 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.44 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.91 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.33 ​​max $125.48 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $123.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.91 but above $122.44 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.44 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​21 max $120.64.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $122.00 - $123.90 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $122.44 and $121.71 and $120.64 Resistance :​​ $123.50 and $123.91 and $124.33

​​July 30 Support Trendline and 200 DMA ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​We did have finally our dead cat bounce and China market
​seems to stabilize a little.I then switch to month end behavior, especially
​the 2012 behavior at month end when we had a poor ER.​
Last Weekly Research: ​ Month End July Seasonals: 2012 Case ?
What happened this year was too much expectations built into the ER AAPL underperformed tremendoulsy since then.​​ We have ONLY 2012 as similar to the ER event as in 2015...
​So in 2012, AAPL outperformed on the last 3 business days on a Relative basis vs the Mighty SP500 Index.
It is not obvious as we have ONLY one case (2012) to compare with 2015 on ER reaction: SO BE THE JUDGE...
​July s performance for Apple shares are -1.63% and for the Mighty SP500 +1.46%.
I think we may start to see AAPL outerperform SP500 Index for month end portfolio rebalancing...​

The Shangai down this morning will not help the Apple case; I still think we may have outperformance til month end on Apple Shares vs the Mighty SP500 Index...

There is 2 levels on a daily basis that Bulls need to protect at all costs here:
1) The Support Trendline that started back on July 10 with $ 122.38 as level
​( see 1rst cart below - red trendline )
2) More importantly, need to stay on a daily close above the 200 DMA​​​​​ now at $ 120.53

The risk of breaking the 200 DMA can bring a gap down towards the 103 to 106 handle within the next few weeks. So you understand how crucial it is indeed...​​

​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.91​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $124.85 to MAX $125.69.

​​​​IF we do close today below $122.38, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $122.21 to MAX $120.53.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
We are breaking the Support Trendline on that Donward Channel...​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​


​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.80 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.61). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on July 29 an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$123.54 support and $128.10 as resistance.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 27 with ​$123.35 support and $124.90 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $123.48 as support and $134.54 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.38 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.91 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.85 ​​max $125.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $123.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.91 but above $122.38 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.38 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​21 max $120.53.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $122.40 - $123.90 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $122.38 and $121.21 and $120.53 Resistance :​​ $123.91 and $124.85 and $125.69

July 29 2012 Case ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​We did trade as low as $122.12 on July 27, still far from
​the 200 DMA now at $120.31.The weak Technical Pattern still prevail for me...
​As a wrote earlier, the best set up was to test the 200 DMA and rebound violently...
​​We are this morning in a dead cat bounce to MAX $124.64 and fade...
Volatility will prevail as long as the China market will not stabilize and make the market tough to trade...​​

We did have finally our dead cat bounce and China market seems to stabilize a little.
I then switch to month end behavior, especially the 2012 behavior at month end when we had a poor ER.​
Last Weekly Research: ​ Month End July Seasonals: 2012 Case ?

What happened this year was too much expectations built into the ER AAPL underperformed tremendoulsy since then.​​ We have ONLY 2012 as similar to the ER event as in 2015...
​So in 2012, AAPL outperformed on the last 3 business days on a Relative basis vs the Mighty SP500 Index.
It is not obvious as we have ONLY one case (2012) to compare with 2015 on ER reaction: SO BE THE JUDGE...

​July s performance for Apple shares are -1.63% and for the Mighty SP500 +1.46%.
I think we may start to see AAPL outerperform SP500 Index for month end portfolio rebalancing...​

​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.91​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $124.56 to MAX $125.81.

​​​​IF we do close today below $122.12, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $120.79 to MAX $120.42.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
We are on the Support Trendline on that Doward Channel...​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.69 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.86 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$123.54 support and $128.10 as resistance.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 27 with ​$123.01 support and $124.56 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $123.48 as support and $134.54 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.12 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.691 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.91 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.56 ​​max $125.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $123.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $123.91 but above $122.12 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.12 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​79 max $120.42.


​​
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.00 - $124.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.01 and $121.99 and $120.42 Resistance :​​ $123.91 and $124.56 and $125.81

​​​
July 28 Dead Cat Bounce ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​SP500 is in full correction after breaking the 20 and 50
​DMA ( Day Moving Average) on Friday.Apple is like I did mentioned earlier,
​the fact that ​​we did not reached te 200 DMA on July 22 and rebounded from a low of $122.00; ​for me it is the weakest technicals scenario.The best tech set up here is a puke down ​​to test the support trendline now at $122.91 of an upward channel that started on July 9 MAX the 200 DMA ( now at $120.20 ) and rebound.

​​​​We did trade as low as $122.12 on July 27, still far from the 200 DMA now at $120.31.
The weak Technical Pattern still prevail for me... As a wrote earlier, the best set up was to test the 200 DMA and rebound violently...
​​
We are this morning in a dead cat bounce to MAX $124.64 and fade...
Volatility will prevail as long as the China market will not stabilize and make the market tough to trade...​​


​​​IF we do close today above $124.64​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $125.87 to MAX $126.62.

​​​​IF we do close today below $122.12, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $120.79 to MAX $120.31.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.64 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.86). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.




​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$123.26 support and $128.07 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $123.48 as support and $134.54 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.12 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.64​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.64 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.87 ​​max $126.62 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.64 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $124.64 but above $122.12 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.12 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​79 max $120.31.


​​
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.20 - $124.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.77 and $122.84 and $121.99 Resistance :​​ $124.64 and $125.87 and $126.62



​​July 27 Broken SP500 ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the $124.32 on July 24 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​Strong rejection on July 23rd of the 20 DMA then at
​$126.36 ( now at $ 126.21 ). We did also reject the resistance trendline that
​started back on May 26 then at $ 126.80 ( Now at $126.69 ). That is still the Main Battle for Bulls in the next few trading sessions. But like I did mentioned earlier, the fact that ​​we did not reached te 200 DMA on July 22 and rebounded from a low of $122.00; ​for me it is the weakest technicals scenario. The least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Options Magnet Contest is at the $125 handle for today, so little impact expected from there...

SP500 is in full correction after breaking the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average) on Friday.
Apple is like I did mentioned earlier, the fact that ​​we did not reached te 200 DMA on July 22 and rebounded from a low of $122.00; ​for me it is the weakest technicals scenario.

The best tech set up here is a puke down ​​to test the support trendline now at $122.91 of an upward channel that started on July 9 MAX the 200 DMA ( now at $120.20 ) and rebound.

​​​​IF we do close today above $125.74​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $126.61 to MAX $127.84.

​​​​IF we do close today below $122.91, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $121.99 to MAX $120.20.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.




​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$122.91 support and $127.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 6 with $123.48 as support and $134.54 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.91 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.74​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.74 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.61 ​​max $127.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $125.74 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.74 but above $121.99 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.91 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​99 max $120.20.


​​
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $122.90 - $124.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.77 and $122.91 and $121.99 Resistance :​​ $124.64 and $125.74 and $126.61

July 24 Rejection of the 20 DMA ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $124.58 on July 22 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
( $124.58 was the top of my range on July 22 )

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Well we did not reached te 200 DMA and rebounded;
​for me it is the weakest technicals scenario.
The next Battle for Bulls is a Daily close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $126.36. ​


​Strong rejection on July 23rd of the 20 DMA then at $126.36 ( now at $ 126.21 ). We did also reject the resistance trendline thta started back on May 26 then at $ 126.80 ( Now at $126.69 )

That is still the Main Battle for Bulls in the next few trading sessions. But like I did mentioned earlier, the fact that ​​we did not reached te 200 DMA on July 22 and rebounded from a low of $122.00; ​for me it is the weakest technicals scenario.

The least pain for Market makers on the Weekly Options Magnet Contest is at the $125 handle for today, so little impact expected from there...

​​IF we do close today above $126.69​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.87 to MAX $128.91.

​​​​IF we do close today below $124.32, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.77 to MAX $122.54.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​


​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 15 with ​$131.10 support and $132.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on the upside on July 20 an uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$127.49 support and $129.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on July 20 a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $118.85 as support and $129.63 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.69​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.69 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.77 ​​max $128.91 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.69 but above $124.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​77 max $122.54.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $126.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.06 and $124.32 and $123.77 Resistance :​​ $126.21 and $127.87 and $128.91


​​July 23 Battle of the 20 DMA ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $124.58 on July 22 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
( $124.58 was the top of my range on July 22 )

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Well, again expectations and bad market positioning
​made the blood bath that we have now...​​
It was China expectations that triggered the sell off...​ OFFICIAL AAPL Results.
​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.45 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... But may trigger a reversal intraday...
Especially if near/below the 200 DMA​.
Price action will get insane today; expect capitulation to MAX $119.81 and then price chasers to MAX $124.58 as guidelines ONLY...​​
​​Expect Volatility to crash as stated in my Weekly Research:​
​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior for Q3 ER (Earnings Release) ?
And IF history repeat itself like the sell off in 2012, today should be the low price of Apple Shares after ER:
​​Apple Shares Behavior Before Q3 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?


Well we did not reached te 200 DMA and rebounded; for me it is the weakest technicals scenario.
The next Battle for Bulls is a Daily close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $126.36 ​

IF we do close today above $126.36​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.77 to MAX $128.94.

​​​​IF we do close today below $123.77, then expect another Bearish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $121.99.

​​​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .06 ) Still above the 200 DMA at .058. ​
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.84 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.86 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 15 with ​$131.10 support and $132.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on the upside on July 20 an uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$127.49 support and $129.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on July 20 a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $118.85 as support and $129.63 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $123.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.36​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.36 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.77 ​​max $128.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $123.77 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.36 but above $123.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $123.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$122.​54 max $121.99.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $126.40 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.50 and $124.48 and $123.77 Resistance :​​ $126.36 and $127.77 and $128.94


​​July 22 The Day after Tomorrow ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $131.10 on July 21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​What is surprising here is that it trades like if it was the
​Q4 ER ( Eanings Release ): the most crucial quarter and the most volatile
​to trade. I hope that the financial results will be good because we are near the top on SP500 fut and expectations on Apple ER are to the moon...
As stated in my Weekly Research: ​​So the market is pricing a plus or minus 4.7% move for Q3 ER​ or in terms of Apple Shares then between $123.53 to $135.71 at closing on July 22 2015. On July 20, AAPL was up +1.93%.
Congestion zone is still at $131.39 to $132.97 pre-ER. I expect some profit taking today and final portfolio rebalancing before ER to the $ 131.95 MAX $131.10 zone.

Well, again expectations and bad market positioning made the blood bath that we have now...​​
It was China expectations that triggered the sell off...​ OFFICIAL AAPL Results.

​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.45 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... But may trigger a reversal intraday...
Especially if near/below the 200 DMA​.

Price action will get insane today; expect capitulation to MAX $119.81 and then price chasers to MAX $124.58 as guidelines ONLY...​​
​​
IF we do close today below $131.10, ​( it did on July 21 ) then expect another Bearish Impulse: $129.07 to MAX $127.84. Next targets are $122.54 MAX $119.81

​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.45​​, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.91 to MAX $128.99.

Expect Volatility to cracs as stated in my Weekly Research:​
​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior for Q3 ER (Earnings Release) ?
And IF history repeat itself like the sell off in 2012, today should be the low price of Apple Shares after ER:
​​Apple Shares Behavior Before Q3 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?

​​​​​​​I will start to focus on the 200 DMA on Apple Shares ( now at $119.81 ) and also On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 ( now at .058 ). ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind til ER July 31.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​
​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.41 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.86). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 15 with ​$131.10 support and $132.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on the upside on July 20 an uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$127.49 support and $129.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on July 20 a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $118.85 as support and $129.63 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $119.81 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.45​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.45 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.91 ​​max $128.99 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.45 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.45 but above $119.81 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.81 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​31 max $117.61.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $119.80 - $124.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $122.54 and $121.21 and $119.81 Resistance :​​ $123.85 and $124.58 and $125.74
July 21 Last Call before ER ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Last Friday the Weekly Options Magnet was a lot less
​than I thought, reaching a low of $128.31, way far of the $126 handle.
We are within the last Fever phase​​ as we are testing the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 and is for today at $129.63 for now...​​​ And getting near the congestion zone of $131.39 to $132.97 pre-ER.
That last push will be also the near peak on the Volatility ( Options ) on Apple Shares as explained on my Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet ):
​ ​​​​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior for Q3 ER (Earnings Release) ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​What is surprising here is that it trades like if it was the Q4 ER ( Eanings Release ): the most crucial quarter and the most volatile to trade. I hope that the financial results will be good because we are near the top on SP500 fut and expectations on Apple ER are to the moon...

As stated in my Weekly Research: ​​So the market is pricing a plus or minus 4.7% move for Q3 ER​ or in terms of Apple Shares then between $123.53 to $135.71 at closing on July 22 2015. On July 20, AAPL was up +1.93%.

​Congestion zone is still at $131.39 to $132.97 pre-ER. I expect some profit taking today and final portfolio rebalancing before ER to the $ 131.95 MAX $131.10 zone.

​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $131.10 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $133.80 to $134.54.

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $131.10, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $129.07 to MAX $127.84

​​​​Seasonals are in a last Fever Pattern til ER July 21.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​5) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
6) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​7) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91


​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.46 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.98 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 15 with ​$131.10 support and $132.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on the upside on July 20 an uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$127.49 support and $129.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on July 20 a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $118.85 as support and $129.63 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $131.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.97​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $133.80 ​​max $134.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $131.10 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $132.97 but above $131.10 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $131.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$129.​07 max $127.84.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $131.10 - $133.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.95 and $131.10 and $129.07 Resistance :​​ $132.97 and $133.80 and $134.54

MACRO ER LEVELS
​​​​​​​Support : $127.84 and $126.29 and $124.32 Resistance :​​ $136.22 and $138.23 and $139.85
​​
July 20 Last Push for ER Fever ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did reach the $128.22 Bullish Impulse target already.
​ER ( Earnings Release ) Fever is on.But on Fridays, we have the WOM
​( Weekly Options Magnet ); this week, the least pain for Market Makers are getting near the $126 handle. ​So for me today, the risk is a consolidation around that level before a last quick rebound Monday.
​​We already broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on July 16 then at $ 127.56.
Next Big Challenge for Bulls is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 and is for today at $129.74 for now...​​​ ( 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline )

Last Friday the Weekly Options Magnet was a lot less than I thought, reaching a low of $128.31, way far of the $126 handle.

We are within the last Fever phase​​ as we are testing the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 and is for today at $129.63 for now...​​​ And getting near the congestion zone of $131.39 to $132.97 pre-ER.

That last push will be also the near peak on the Volatility ( Options ) on Apple Shares as explained on my Weekly Research ( for those who did not read it yet ):
​ ​​​​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior for Q3 ER (Earnings Release) ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.49 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $130.66 to $131.39.

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.49, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.56 to MAX $124.32

​​​​Seasonals are in a last Fever Pattern til ER July 21.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​5) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
6) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​7) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91


​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.48 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.94 to 0.98). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 15 with ​$129.63 support and $131.45 as resistance.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$127.49 support and $129.89 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $118.85 as support and $129.63 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $127.49 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.66​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.66 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.39 ​​max $132.97 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.49 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.66 but above $127.49 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.49 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​56 max $124.32.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.10 - $130.90 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.63 and $128.31 and $127.70 Resistance :​​ $130.66 and $131.39 and $132.97

​​
July 17 ER Fever - WOM Reality ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Well I thought that yesterday was to be another
​consolidation day before the last push up before ER on July 21.
I was wrong. No only ​SP500 grind most of the eraly session, Apple continue to outperform tremendously.
​​Bulls did have their Daily close above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54 on July 15, then a quick $127.56 to $128.33 is expected and then consolidate...

We did reach the $128.22 Bullish Impulse target alrady. ER ( Earnings Release ) Fever is on.
But on Fridays, we have the WOM ( Weekly Options Magnet ); this week, the least pain for Market Makers are getting near the $126 handle. ​So for me today, the risk is a consolidation around that level before a last quick rebound Monday.

​​We already broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on July 16 then at $ 127.56.
Next Big Challenge for Bulls is the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 and is for today at $129.74 for now...​​​ ( 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline )

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.55 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $129.20 to $129.74.

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.55, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.93 to MAX $124.32

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til July 17.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​1) On July 16, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.56
​2) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
3) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
4) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​5) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
6) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​7) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91


​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.18 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.87 to 0.94). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$126.86 support and $129.20 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We broke on the upside on July 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $118.35 as support and $127.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $126.55 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.20​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.74 ​​max $130.66 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.55 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.20 but above $126.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​93 max $124.32.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $129.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.85 and $126.88 and $125.93 Resistance :​​ $129.20 and $129.74 and $130.66

​​
July 16 50 DMA at Play ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Not much have changed fpr me since yesterday but I
​think we will have an extended consolidation phase as long as we are
​within the $124.32 to $126.54 price range to trigger a price impulse.
​Unless...​I expect another day within a consolidation phase, kind of $124.80 to $126.30.
​​​​Next Big Challenge for the Bulls will be to close above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.

Well I thought that yesterday was to be another consolidation day before the last push up before ER on July 21.
I was wrong. No only ​SP500 grind most of the eraly session, Apple continue to outperform tremendously.

​​Bulls did have their Daily close above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54 on July 15, then a quick $127.56 to $128.33 is expected and then consolidate...

Not only now the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at play at $ 127.56, we have also for today at the same level another Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 26.
Having a daily close above those can gives another strong Bull Impulse to MAX $129.80 for now...​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $127.56 to $128.33

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.32 to MAX $123.77

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til July 17.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On July 15, we did have aclose above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.
2) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
3) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​4) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
5) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​6) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91


​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.07 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.72 to 0.87). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 13 with ​$126.15 support and $127.86 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We broke on the upside on July 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $118.35 as support and $127.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.56​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.86 ​​max $128.33 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.54 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​32 max $123.77.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $128.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.54 and $126.15 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $127.56 and $127.86 and $128.33
​​
July 15 Another Consolidation Day ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did have that strong rebound since the capitulation
​phase on July 9.But the market must realize that as long as Greek Parliamant​​
​must approve all those new laws required for acceptance of the Bail-Out Package. Market yesterday priced almost 100% of success... Well... We are in transit and the market will have to wait for full approval before next big upleg...​ For today I expect a consolidation phase, kind of $124.80 to $126.20.

Not much have changed fpr me since yesterday but I think we will have an extended consolidation phase as long as we are within the $124.32 to $126.54 price range to trigger a price impulse.
​Unless...​I expect another day within a consolidation phase, kind of $124.80 to $126.30.

​​​​Next Big Challenge for the Bulls will be to close above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.32 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $126.54 to $127.60

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.32, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.77 to MAX $122.54


​​
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 15.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
2) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​3)On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
4) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​5) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​6) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​7) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.06 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.71 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$127.10 support and $132.05 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We broke on the upside on July 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $118.35 as support and $127.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.54​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.60 ​​max $127.87 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.54 but above $124.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​77 max $122.54.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.04 and $124.32 and $123.77 Resistance :​​ $125.91 and $126.54 and $127.60
​​
July 14 Consolidation ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Options Magnet was almost a textbook example last
​Friday by reaching easily the 123 handle target magnet...
​​​Volatility should abate because of the Greece Relief ( at leat for a few days ) and we will start to focus on the next ER ( Earnings Release ) as mentioned on my last Weekly Research ( If you did not read it yet ):
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior Before Q3 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
Next Big Challenge for the Bulls will be to close above the Resistance Trendline at $125.44.
If it do so, it will confirm that the last Bear Phase is behins us til ER.

We did have that strong rebound since the capitulation phase on July 9.
But the market must realize that as long as Greek Parliamant​​ must approve all those new laws required for acceptance of the Bail-Out Package. Market yesterday priced almost 100% of success... Well...
We are in transit and the market will have to wait for full approval before next big upleg...​
For today I expect a consolidation phase, kind of $124.80 to $126.20.

​​Next Big Challenge for the Bulls will be to close above the Resistance Trendline at $126.54.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.32 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36. Next targets are $126.54 to $127.67

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.32, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.77 to MAX $122.54


​​
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 15.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On July 13, we did close above ​the Resistance Trendline then at $125.44
2) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​3) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
4) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​5) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​6) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​7) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.04 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.77 to 0.71). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$125.18 support and $129.99 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We broke on the upside on July 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $118.35 as support and $127.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.54​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.67 ​​max $127.87 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.32 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.54 but above $124.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​77 max $122.54.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.85 and $124.32 and $123.77 Resistance :​​ $125.98 and $126.54 and $127.67

​​July 13 Back to Q3 ER ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $121.63 on July 10 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday was a Capitulation Day on AAPL. We had a
​huge drop in price with strong Volume and a Spike in Volatility. Today, the
​focus will be on the Weekly Options Magnet. The least pain for Market Makers is the 123 handle. We are getting near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $118.72; Bulls need to protect at all costs.
We are starting to challenge Monthly Technicals Levels ( Support ) at $125.07 and Weekly at $123.61.

Options Magnet was almost a textbook example last Friday by reaching easily the 123 handle target magnet...

​​Volatility should abate because of the Greece Relief ( at leat for a few days ) and we will start to focus on the next ER ( Earnings Release ) as mentioned on my last Weekly Research ( If you did not read it yet ):
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior Before Q3 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?

Next Big Challenge for the Bulls will be to close above the Resistance Trendline at $125.44.
If it do so, it will confirm that the last Bear Phase is behins ud til ER.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $122.54 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​(it did on July 10) then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36

​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $122.54, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $121.36 to MAX $121.21


​​
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 15.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.76 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.77). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.




​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with ​$123.27 support and $128.04 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We broke on the upside on July 10 a downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $118.35 as support and $127.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.44​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.05 ​​max $127.66 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $122.54 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.44 but above $122.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​36 max $121.21.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.00 - $125.40 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.06 and $123.27 and $122.54 Resistance :​​ $124.90 and $125.44 and $126.05
July 10 Capitulation ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near $125.62 on July 7 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Greece headlines continue to bring bad volatility to ​the
​market...​​ Now China is becoming a Bigger Concern...​
​Already in a dead cat bounce to $123.77 MAX $124.48 and fade...


​Yesterday was a Capitulation Day on AAPL. We had a huge drop in price with strong Volume and a Spike in Volatility. Today, the focus will be on the Weekly Options Magnet. The least pain for Market Makers is the 123 handle. We are getting near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $118.72; Bulls need to protect at all costs.

Volatility ain t over as long as Greece and China don t settle down...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $121.63​​, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $122.54 to MAX $123.36
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $119.22, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $118.72 to MAX $118.15

We are starting to challenge Monthly Technicals Levels ( Support ) at $125.07 and Weekly at $123.61.

​​
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.68 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.90 to 0.84). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.




​​
​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on July 7 with ​$118.15 support and $122.92 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 9 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$121.84 support and $125.87 as resistance.

We broke on July 8 an uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$125.05 support and $127.32 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.61 as support and $135.69 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $119.22 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $121.63​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $122.54 ​​max $123.36 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $121.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $121.63​ but above $119.22 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $119.22 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$118.​72 max $118.15.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $120.90 - $122.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $120.25 and $119.22 and $118.72 Resistance :​​ $121.63 and $122.54 and $123.36

​​July 9 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near $125.62 on July 7 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Greece headlines continue to bring bad volatility to ​the market...​​
Now China is becoming a Bigger Concern...​


Already in a dead cat bounce to $123.77 MAX $124.48 and fade...

​​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $124.97​​, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $125.87 to MAX $126.52
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $122.54, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $121.84 to MAX $120.25

We are starting to challenge Monthly Technicals Levels ( SUpport ) at $125.07 and Weekly at $123.61.

​​
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.78 to 0.90). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.




​​
​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$121.84 support and $125.87 as resistance.

We broke on July 8 an uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$125.05 support and $127.32 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.61 as support and $135.69 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $122.54 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.97​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.87 ​​max $126.52 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $124.97​ but above $122.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.54 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​84 max $120.25.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.00 - $124.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.36 and $122.54 and $121.84 Resistance :​​ $124.48 and $124.97 and $125.87

​​July 8 Bulls Challenge Failed ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close near $125.62 on July 7 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Still ​​​​​​Three main challenges for Bull for the next few
​trading session:
1) Have a Daily close above the​ Major Resistance of the broken Triangle Pattern today at $126.50
2) Break the down the Major Donwtrend Channel Resistance now at $126.36
3) Need a Daily Close above the Major SUpport Trendline that started back on March 12 2015 at $125.24
​Done on July 6

We failed to close above those Bull Trigger and closed near the $125.62 level with a last minute pop...
​​
Greece headlines continue to bring bad volatility to ​the market...​​
Now China is becoming a Bigger Concern...​


​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.51 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.51​​, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.00 to MAX $128.17
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.48, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.77 to MAX $123.36


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.89 to 0.78). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.




​​
​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$125.05 support and $127.32 as resistance.

​​​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$122.03 support and $126.05 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.61 as support and $135.69 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.48 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.51​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.00 ​​max $128.17 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.51 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.51​ but above $124.48 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.48 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​77 max $123.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.80 - $125.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.48 and $123.77 and $123.36 Resistance :​​ $125.29 and $126.05 and $127.00


July 7 Bulls Challenge ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $126.48 on July 1 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Greece headlines continue to bring bad volatility to
​the market...​​I still focus on Relative performance as long as the SP500 does
​not come back in a Bull Stance...

Still ​​​​​​Three main challenges for Bull for the next few trading session:
1) Have a Daily close above the​ Major Resistance of the broken Triangle Pattern today at $126.50
2) Break the down the Major Donwtrend Channel Resistance now at $126.36
3) Need a Daily Close above the Major SUpport Trendline that started back on March 12 2015 at $125.24
​Done on July 6

​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.32​​, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.76 to MAX $129.48
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.48


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.46 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.89). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.




​​
​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$126.36 support and $128.32 as resistance.

​​​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$122.30 support and $126.36 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.61 as support and $135.69 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.32​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.32 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.76 ​​max $129.48 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.32​ but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​14 max $124.48.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.70 - $127.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.62 and $125.24 and $124.48 Resistance :​​ $126.50 and $127.11 and $128.27​

​​
​​July 6 Greek Repricing ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $126.48 on July 1 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​If you did not read it yet, a must read: my Weekly
​Research on July Seasonalities HERE

Greece headlines continue to bring bad volatility to the market...

​​I still focus on Relative performance as long as the SP500 does not come back in a Bull Stance...

​​​​​​Three main challenges for Bull for the next few trading session:
1) Have a Daily close above the​ Major Resistance of the broken Triangle Pattern today at $126.48
2) Break the down the Major Donwtrend Channel Resistance now at $126.57
3) Need a Daily Close above the Major SUpport Trendline that started back on March 12 2015 at $125.17

​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.03​​, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.34 to MAX $128.75
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.48


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.41 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.85 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$126.01 support and $128.03 as resistance.

​​​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$122.49 support and $126.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.61 as support and $135.69 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.03​ will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.03 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.34 ​​max $128.75 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.03​ but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​14 max $124.48.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.62 and $125.17 and $124.48 Resistance :​​ $126.57 and $127.27 and $128.03​

July 2 Channel Resistance ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $126.48 on July 1 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​We did have that dead cat bounce as expected. Now we
​are shifting to seasonals which are Bullish for Apple Shares. I still focus on
​Relative Performance as SP500 still quite shaky. A Detailed Weekly Research will come later today... But Seasonals are on for Apple Shares...

If you did not read it yet, a must read: my Weekly Research on July Seasonalities HERE

I still focus on Relative performance as long as the SP500 does not come back in a Bull Stance...

​​​​​​Two main challenges for Bull for the next few trading session:
1) Have a Daily close above the​ Major Resistance of the broken Triangle Pattern today at $126.48
DONE on July 1​
2) Break the down the Major Donwtrend Channel Resistance now at $126.79

​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.61, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.38 to MAX $128.90
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.14 to MAX $124.48


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.46 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.88 to 0.85). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We arewithin a new uptrend channel that started on June 29 with ​$125.62 support and $127.61 as resistance.

​​​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$122.72 support and $126.79 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.46 as support and $135.52 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.61 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.48 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.01 ​​max $127.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.62 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.61 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​14 max $124.48.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.60 - $127.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.99 and $125.62 and $125.14 Resistance :​​ $127.39 and $127.61 and $128.38


FED MACRO LEVELS:
Support: $125.14 and $123.36 Resistance: $128.38 and $128.90
​​
July 1 Seasonals ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $127.38 on June 26 then triggering the Beaish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​Month End/Quarter: Since the beginning of the month,
​the SP500 Index Performance have been -2.36% compare to the Apple
​Shares at -4.41%. All that to say that we should see some asset mix rebalancing, selling SP500 Index and buying Apple Shares. A dead cat bounce today is expected towards $125.71 to MAX $126.47 and fade...
Breaking that Triangle Pattern on June 29 was quite bad. It becomes for today the Major Resistance at $126.47. And notice that Yesterday s high was $126.47 and was rejected violently. See 1rst chart below.

We did have that dead cat bounce as expected. Now we are shifting to seasonals which are Bullish for Apple Shares. I still focus on Relative Performance as SP500 still quite shaky. A Detailed Weekly Research will come later today... But Seasonals are on for Apple Shares...

​​Two main challenges for Bull for the next few trading session:
1) Have a Daily close above the​ Major Resistance of the broken Triangle Pattern today at $126.48
2) Break the down channel Resistance at $127.01​

​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.48 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.48, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.01 to MAX $127.56
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.46, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.36 to MAX $123.19


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til July 10.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.37 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.83 to 0.88). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$122.96 support and $127.01 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.46 as support and $135.52 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.48 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.48 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.01 ​​max $127.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.48 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.48 but above $124.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​36 max $123.19.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.60 - $127.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.62 and $125.10 and $124.46 Resistance :​​ $126.48 and $127.01 and $127.56


​​​June 30 Dead Cat Bounce ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $127.38 on June 26 then triggering the Beaish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​As mentioned in my Weekly Research
​( Update on the Wedge Support Trendline ? ), it becomes critical for Bulls
​to have a daily close above $124.99.​​This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking that Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...
​​​​So we did finally have some Grexit impact into the market, only a portion of it has only EU had said officially no more to Grece. IMF and ECB still there. Volatility just beginning. Month end also will add to the party...
SP500 Index still under pressure. Apple Shares can t just avoid that turmoil...

Month End/Quarter: Since the beginning of the month, the SP500 Index Performance have been -2.36% compare to the Apple Shares at -4.41%. All that to say that we should see some asset mix rebalancing, selling SP500 Index and buying Apple Shares.

A dead cat bounce today is expected towards $125.71 to MAX $126.47 and fade...

Breaking that Triangle Pattern on June 29 was quite bad. It becomes for today the Major Resistance at $126.47. And notice that Yesterday s high was $126.47 and was rejected violently. See 1rst chart below.

​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.47 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.47, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.22 to MAX $127.79
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.46, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.36 to MAX $123.19


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til June 30.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.42 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.19 to 0.83). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.19 support and $127.22 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.46 as support and $135.52 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.47 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.47 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.22 ​​max $127.79 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.47 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.44 but above $124.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​36 max $123.19.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.05 and $124.46 and $123.36 Resistance :​​ $125.71 and $126.47 and $127.22

June 29 Critical Support Trendline ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $127.38 on June 26 then triggering the Beaish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​Second day in a row we have been rejecting the 50
​DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $128.43.
The 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA on June 25, another concern...​
​SO next step for me is to close above the 50 DMA to give some technical strenght.
We also rejected the break out of that Major Trendline at $127.91 on June 25​ and $127.70 today...
​​​​​​​​​​​​​I will focus on Relative Performance as the SP500 is showing sign of Market Fatigue...
​​The least pain for Marker Makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is the $127 handle.

As mentioned in my Weekly Research ( Update on the Wedge Support Trendline ? ), it becomes critical for Bulls to have a daily close above $124.99.

​​This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking that Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​So we did finally have some Grexit impact into the market, only a portion of it has only EU had said officially no more to Grece. IMF and ECB still there. Volatility just beginning. Month end also will add to the party...
SP500 Index still under pressure. Apple Shares can t just avoid that turmoil...

​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.46 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.46, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.09 to MAX $128.44
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.99, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.46 to MAX $123.36


​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Grind Pattern til June 30.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.61 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.04 to 0.19). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.36 support and $127.46 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on June 26 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.46 as support and $135.52 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $124.99 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.46 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.46 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.09 ​​max $128.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.46 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.46 but above $124.99 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.99 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​46 max $123.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.40 - $126.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.99 and $124.46 and $123.36 Resistance :​​ $125.71 and $126.45 and $127.46
​​
June 26 Relatively ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $127.85 on June 24 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​Well we did have the turnaround for the Counter Trend
​quicker than I thought but for an unexpected reason; another iCahn market
​behavior. Already a negative correlation - a rare event indeed...
​I will focus on Relative Performance as the SP500 is showing sign of Market Fatigue...
SO next step for me is to close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 128.41.​

Second day in a row we have been rejecting the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $128.43.
The 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA on June 25, another concern...​
​SO next step for me is to close above the 50 DMA to give some technical strenght.
We also rejected the break out of that Major Trendline at $127.91 on June 25​ and$127.70 today...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​I will focus on Relative Performance as the SP500 is showing sign of Market Fatigue...

​​The least pain for Marker Makers on the Weekly Options Magnet is the $127 handle.

​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.38 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.07, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.80 to MAX $130.18
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.38, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.40 to MAX $125.62

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.92;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On June 25, 20 DMA then at $128.27 crossed below the 50 DMA then at $128.43
​​​​2) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
3) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​4) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​5) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​6) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34


​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.54 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.02 to 0.04). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.60 support and $129.07 as resistance
​​
​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.66 support and $127.70 as resistance

​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 24 a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $122.84 as support and $127.43 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $127.38 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.07 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.07 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.80 ​​max $130.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.38 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.07 but above $127.38 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.38 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​40 max $125.62.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $128.40 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.12 and $126.40 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $128.27 and $128.43 and $129.07

​​
June 25 New iCahn Counter Trend ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above $127.85 on Jun 24 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​As I wrote in my Weekly Research: So the battle this
​week will be between that Support Trendline from that Rising Wedge at
​$ 124.87 for now and the Resistance level from that downward Channel now at $128.14.
​When broken, expect an Impulse from the market...​​
​​We have been in that Major Downtrend Channel since May 26 and the Mighty SP500 into an Uptrend Channel since June 16. I think we are not far from Counter Trend trades ( Sell SP500 to buy AAPL ). So near on a relative basis to start to outperform finally... But not begin yet...

Well we did have the turnaround for the Counter Trend quicker than I thought but for an unexpected reason; another iCahn market behavior. Already a negative correlation - a rare event indeed...
​I will focus on Relative Performance as the SP500 is showing sign of Market Fatigue...
SO next step for me is to close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 128.41.​

​​​​​​​​​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.38 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.82, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.80 to MAX $130.18
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.38, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.40 to MAX $125.62

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.92;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.28 to -0.02). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.38 support and $128.83 as resistance
​​
​​​​We broke on June 24 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.11 support and $128.14 as resistance

​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 24 a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $122.84 as support and $127.43 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $127.38 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.83 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.83 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.80 ​​max $130.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.38 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.83 but above $127.38 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.38 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​40 max $125.62.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.90 - $129.80 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.91 and $127.38 and $126.40 Resistance :​​ $128.83 and $129.80 and $130.18

​​June 24 Near Counter Trend ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​We still need to break on a daily close the 50 DMA
​now at $128.37 to have a Real Bullish Impulse towards $129.34 MAX $130.46.
​Also take note that at almost the same level as the 50 DMA, we have the resistance trendline from a downward channel, See 1rst chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse.

As I wrote in my Weekly Research: So the battle this week will be between that Support Trendline from that Rising Wedge at $ 124.87 for now and the Resistance level from that downward Channel now at $128.14.
​When broken, expect an Impulse from the market...​​

​​We have been in that Major Downtrend Channel since May 26 and the Mighty SP500 into an Uptrend Channel since June 16. I think we are not far from Counter Trend trades ( Sell SP500 to buy AAPL ). So near on a relative basis to start to outperform finally... But not begin yet...

​​​​​​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.85 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.85, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.37 to MAX $128.67
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.87

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.87;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.69 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.47 to 0.28). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 18 with ​$125.98 support and $127.85 as resistance
​​We broke on June 23 an uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.76 support and $129.34 as resistance.
​​​​We still within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.11 support and $128.14 as resistance
​​We broke on June 19 a mini uptrend channel that started on June 15 with $127.79 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are still withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $122.84 as support and $127.43 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.85 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.85 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.37 ​​max $128.67 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.85 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.85 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.87.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.40 - $128.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.74 and $125.98 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $127.85 and $128.37 and $128.67


June 23 Back with the Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​Last Friday we had the typical Weekly Options Magnet:
​the least pain for market makers was between the $125 to $126 handle.
​It did get as low as $126.40...Today a Dead Cat Bounce expected towards the $127.85 zone ( Resistance ) MAX the 50 DMA (​​ ( Day Moving Average ) now at $128.36 and consolidate. As I wrote in my Weekly Research: So the battle this week will be between that Support Trendline from that Rising Wedge at $ 124.78 for now and the Resistance level from that downward Channel now at $128.64. When broken, expect an Impulse from the market...​​

We still need to break on a daily close the 50 DMA now at $128.37 to have a Real Bullish Impulse towards $129.34 MAX $130.46. Also take note that at almost the same level as the 50 DMA, we have the resistance trendline from a downward channel, See 1rst chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse.

​​​​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.90, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.37 to MAX $129.34
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.83

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.83;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.42 to 0.47). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 19 with ​$127.76 support and $129.34 as resistance

​​​​We still within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.33 support and $128.37 as resistance

​​We broke on June 19 a mini uptrend channel that started on June 15 with $127.79 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are still withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $122.84 as support and $127.43 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.37 ​​max $129.34 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.90 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.83.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $128.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.22 and $126.37 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $128.37 and $128.81 and $129.34
​​
June 22 Greek Volatility Still ?
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​SP500 Bull Squeeze yesterday: it did closed above the
​50 and 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).For Apple, we had a near miss on the
​50 DMA; ​we did trade as high as $128.31, the 50 DMA and was rejected, unable to close above... Apple underperformance continue... Having a daily close above the 50 DMA now at $128.36 should bring some market players and create a mini Bull impulse towards MAX the 20 DMA at $129.29.​​

Last Friday we had the typical Weekly Options Magnet: the least pain for market makers was between the $125 to $126 handle. It did get as low as $126.40...

Today a Dead Cat Bounce expected towards the $127.85 zone ( Resistance ) MAX the 50 DMA (​​ ( Day Moving Average ) now at $128.36 and consolidate. As I wrote in my Weekly Research: So the battle this week will be between that Support Trendline from that Rising Wedge at $ 124.78 for now and the Resistance level from that downward Channel now at $128.64. When broken, expect an Impulse from the market...​​

​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.90, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.36 to MAX $128.64
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.78

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.78;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...
​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.61 to 0.42). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on June 11 with ​$123.81 support and $127.57 as resistance

​​​​We still within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.56 support and $128.64 as resistance

​​We broke on June 19 a mini uptrend channel that started on June 15 with $127.79 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are still withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of May 25 with $122.84 as support and $127.43 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.36 ​​max $128.64 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.90 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.78.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $128.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.22 and $126.37 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $128.36 and $128.64 and $129.05

​​
June 19 Still Below 50 DMA ?

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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​One interesting technical factor to me was that we did
​test on June 17 the previous day s high of $127.85 ​(did trade $127.88) and was rejected...

SP500 Bull Squeeze yesterday: it did closed above the 50 and 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).
For Apple, we had a near miss on the 50 DMA; ​we did trade as high as $128.31, the 50 DMA and was rejected, unable to close above... Apple underperformance continue... Having a daily close above the 50 DMA now at $128.36 should bring some market players and create a mini Bull impulse towards MAX the 20 DMA at $129.29.​​

Today ​​we have the weekly options magnet; the least pain for market makers are between the $125 to $126 handle. Also headline risks are still on ...

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.90, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.36 to MAX $129.29
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.69

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.69;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 26.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.74 to 0.61). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We have a mini uptrend channel that started on June 15 with $127.79 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 18 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.51 support and $127.28 as resistance

​​​​​For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $120.92 as support and $131.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.36 ​​max $129.29 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.90 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.69.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.00 - $128.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.22 and $126.37 and $125.62 Resistance :​​ $128.36 and $129.29 and $129.49

​​June 18 High Rejected ?

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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​Convictions is low for me as too many unpredictable
​Headline risks in those markets these days...​​

One interesting technical factor to me was that we did test on June 17 the previous day s high of $127.85
​(did trade $127.88) and was rejected...

​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.90, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.31 to MAX $129.40
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.68

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.68;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Rebound Pattern til June 18.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.47 ( with strongerer prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.73 to 0.74). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.51 support and $127.28 as resistance.

​​We also have a new mini uptrend channel that started on June 15 with $127.28 support and $128.96 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.19 support and $131.96 as resistance.

​​​For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $120.92 as support and $131.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.31 ​​max $129.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.90 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.68.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $128.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.83 and $125.62 and $124.68 Resistance :​​ $127.90 and $128.31 and $129.40
June 17 Low Convictions ?

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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​Greece headlines will continue for a choppy market behavior...
Fed will add to the volatility today...​

Convictions is low for me as too many unpredictable Headline risks in those markets these days...​​

​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.91, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.29 to MAX $129.54
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.62

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.65;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Rebound Pattern til June 18.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.44 ( with strongerer prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.70 to 0.73). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$123.86 support and $127.62 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.19 support and $131.96 as resistance.

​​​For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $120.92 as support and $131.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.34 ​​max $129.76 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.91 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.62.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.80 - $128.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.83 and $125.62 and $124.65 Resistance :​​ $127.85 and $128.29 and $129.54

​​June 16 Near Major Support Trendline ?

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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​Not only we rejected the 20 DMA on June 11, we did
​break on the downside the 50 DMA on June 12 then at $128.19 telling me a
​weak technical set up we are in; the move from June 9 to 11 was only a dead cat bounce.
Greece headlines will continue for a choppy market behavior...

​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.91, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.29 to MAX $129.67
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.62

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.62;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​ We are already testing it on the SP500 Futures...​
Breaking those Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move​: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...

​​​​Seasonals are in a Rebound Pattern til June 18.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.40 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.58 to 0.70). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.14 support and $127.91 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.19 support and $131.96 as resistance.

​​​For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $120.92 as support and $131.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.34 ​​max $129.76 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.91 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.91 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.62.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $127.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.11 and $125.62 and $124.62 Resistance :​​ $127.24 and $127.91 and $128.29
June 15 Failed to stay above the 50 DMA ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below $128.19 on Jun 12 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​We did close above the 50 DMA on June 11. Same
​challenge today for the 50 DMA now at $128.19.The least pain for Market
​Makers on the Weekly Options is the $128 handle...​
There is some shaky ground on the SP500 price action and on the Financials that let me think we could be only in a dead cat bounce since June 9.​
Yesterday s price action was for me a strong message: a strong rejection of the 20 DMA then at $129.73.
That is why it become critical to hold the 50 DMA on a daily close, unless back to the downtrend channel.​​​

Not only we rejected the 20 DMA on June 11, we did break on the downside the 50 DMA on June 12 then at $128.19 telling me a weak technical set up we are in; the move from June 9 to 11 was only a dead cat bounce.
Greece headlines will continue for a choppy market behavior...

​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.25 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.25, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.34 to MAX $129.76
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.17 to MAX $124.64

Take note that we are getting to a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 with $ 124.64;
This is the last defense line for Bulls.​

​​​​Seasonals are in a Rebound Pattern til June 18.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we did close below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 29...
​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.56 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.83 to 0.58). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.46 support and $128.25 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.19 support and $131.96 as resistance.

​​​For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $120.92 as support and $131.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​​​Starting to trade below $125.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.34 ​​max $129.76 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.25 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.25 but above $125.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​17 max $124.64.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $127.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.11 and $125.62 and $124.64 Resistance :​​ $127.16 and $128.25 and $129.76

​​June 12 Critical 50 DMA and Options Magnet ?
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on June 10 above $128.35 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​Well we had the reversal to a Bullish Stance and break
​on the upside the 50 DMA then at $128.06.
For the technical strenght, we need to stay above the 50 DMA for today at $128.11...
​​
​​​​​​We did close above the 50 DMA on June 11. Same challenge today for the 50 DMA now at $128.19.
The least pain for Market Makers on the Weekly Options is the $128 handle...​
There is some shaky grond on the SP500 price action and on the Financials that let me think we could be only in a dead cat bounce since June 9.​

Yesterday s price action was for me a strong message: a strong rejection of the 20 DMA then at $129.73.
That is why it become critical to hold the 50 DMA on a daily close, unless back to the downtrend channel.​​​

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.19 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.85, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.58 to MAX $131.45
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.19, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.08 to MAX $126.83

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 13.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​
On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.65 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.83). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$124.78 support and $128.59 as resistance.

​​We are back witihn a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.19 support and $131.96 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $127.57 as support and $132.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​​Starting to trade below $128.19 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.85 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.85 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.58 ​​max $131.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.19 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.85 but above $128.19 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.19 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​08 max $126.83.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.80 - $129.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.19 and $127.85 and $126.83 Resistance :​​ $129.21 and $129.85 and $130.18

​​June 11   Back Above the 50 DMA ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on June 10 above $128.35 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ So the best technical scenario played on June 9 with a
​weak form of capitulation as we reached the $125.77 level but not the
​$124.40 level. That tells me that we could be near a reversal from here.​
A daily close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $128.06 will help tremendously the technical set up.​

Well we had the reversal to a Bullish Stance and break on the upside the 50 DMA then at $128.06.
For the technical strenght, we need to stay above the 50 DMA for today at $128.11...
​​
​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.11 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.73, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.58 to MAX $131.45
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.11, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.08 to MAX $126.83

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 13.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

​​1) On June 10, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $128.06
2) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​3) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​4) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​5) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​6) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​7) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21

​​
On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.93). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$125.16 support and $128.94 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 8 a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47 support and $132.14 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $127.57 as support and $132.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​​Starting to trade below $128.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.73 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.73 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.58 ​​max $131.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.11 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.73 but above $128.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​08 max $126.83.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.40 - $129.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.11 and $127.85 and $127.08 Resistance :​​ $129.34 and $129.73 and $130.58

June 10 Near Reversal ?
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​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ So on June 8, we broke the 50 DMA then at $127.91;
​risk is a last quick slippage towards the support trendline from a channel
​that started on May 26 with ​$125.77 MAX $124.40 and squeeze back up violently.
We closed on June 9 below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.

So the best technical scenario played on June 9 with a weak form of capitulation as we reached the $125.77 level but not the $124.40 level. That tells me that we could be near a reversal from here.​
A daily close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $128.06 will help tremendously the technical set up.​

​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.35 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.35, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.28 to MAX $130.58
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.46, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.82 to MAX $124.45

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 13.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​


1) On June 9, closed below the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.
​​2) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​3) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​4) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​5) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​6) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​7) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
8) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12

​​
On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.57 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.97). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$125.46 support and $129.28 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 8 a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47 support and $132.14 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $127.57 as support and $132.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​​Starting to trade below $125.466 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.35 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.35 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.28 ​​max $130.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.35 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.35 but above $125.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​82 max $124.45.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.20 - $128.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.16 and $126.83 and $125.46 Resistance :​​ $128.35 and $129.28 and $130.58

​​
Jun 9 - Broken 50 DMA ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Next big Support not to be broken are: The 50 DMA at
​$127.91 and the Weekly Support at $127.57.​​​So all that to say that for me,
​it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $127.91.
​Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $126 handle pretty quick and then $124.38.

So on June 8, we broke the 50 DMA then at $127.91; risk is a last quick slippage towards the support trendline from a channel that started on May 26 with ​$125.77 MAX $124.40 and squeeze back up violently.

We are near testing the Weekly Support Trendline at $127.57.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.43 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.43, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.32 to MAX $129.58
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.77, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.82 to MAX $124.40

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 13.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On June 8, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.91
​2) On June 8, that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47
​3) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​4) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​5) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​6) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
7) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12

​​
On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.96). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$125.77 support and $129.58 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 8 a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47 support and $132.14 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $127.57 as support and $132.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​​Starting to trade below $125.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.43 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.43 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.32 ​​max $129.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.43 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.43 but above $125.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​82 max $124.40.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.80 - $128.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.83 and $125.77 and $124.40 Resistance :​​ $127.98 and $128.43 and $129.58
June 8 Broken 20 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers
​is ​at the 130 handle, so not much to expect from there...​Take note that we
​are ​near the weekly support level at $129.27. Also near breaking the 20 DMA
​at $129.34.

So in fact on June 5 we did close at $128.65; below the Weekly Support Trendline then at $129.27 and the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $129.34.

Next big Support not to be broken are: The 50 DMA at $ 127.91 and the Weekly Support at $127.57.​​
​So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $127.91. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $126 handle pretty quick and then $124.38.

​​​​​​​​​​​So we are near that daily downtrend support trendline from a channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47. The resistance comes from the channel that started on May 26 at $ 129.90 for today.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.90, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.94 to MAX $131.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.47, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.91 to MAX $126.14

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 13.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On June 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $129.34
​​​​​​​​​2) On June 5 For the weekly, we broke the support of an uptrend channel at $129.27
​3) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​4) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
5) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12

​​
On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.56 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.91 to 0.92). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$126.14 support and $129.90 as resistance.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.47 support and $132.14 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

For the weekly, we are back withtin a downtrend channel that started on the week of April 27 with $127.57 as support and $132.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on June 5 an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 at $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​​Starting to trade below $128.47 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.94 ​​max $131.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.90 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.90 but above $128.47 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.47 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​91 max $126.14.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.00 - $129.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.47 and $127.91 and $126.14 Resistance :​​ $129.51 and $129.90 and $130.94

June 5 NFP and Weekly Options Magnet ?
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did reach $130.94 and fade back. In fact, it was the
​first new day high compare to the previous close and was rejected violently.
​Same for SP500 futures... Seasonals prevail for a slow bleed til June 7.

​​​​We are still into a downtrend channel that started on ​May 26 with ​$126.46 support and $130.23 as resistance for today...​​​ ​This market is choppy, trendless and tough to trade...

​Todays Non Farm Payrolls ​expected at +220k will impact the US Dollar Index (DXY). That wil be the trigger on stocks. Seing weakness of US Dollar should be bad for US financials assets...

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the 130 handle, so not much to expect from there...​

Take note that we are near the weekly support level at $129.27. Also near breaking the 20 DMA at $129.34.

​​​​​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.23 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.23, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.94 to MAX $131.56
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.55, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.80 to MAX $127.17

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 7.​

​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.94 to 0.91). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$126.46 support and $130.23 as resistance.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.55 support and $132.34 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 with $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $128.55 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.23 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.23 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.94 ​​max $131.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.23 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.23 but above $128.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​80 max $127.17.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.00 - $130.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.34 and $128.55 and $127.80 Resistance :​​ $130.23 and $130.94 and $131.56

NFP Macro Levels:
​​Support : $127.80 and $126.46 Resistance :​​ $131.56 and $132.97
June 4 Failed New Daily High ?
​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I think we will have a tiny rebound today and challenge
​the resistance from that channel at $130.66 MAX $131.00 and fade...

We did reach $130.94 and fade back. In fact, it was the first new day high compare to the previous close and was rejected violently. Same for SP500 futures... Seasonals prevail for a slow bleed til June 7.

​​​​We are still into a downtrend channel that started on ​May 26 with ​$126.46 support and $130.26 as resistance for today...​​​ ​This market is choppy, trendless and tough to trade... Plenty of rumors on a potential Greece agreement and threat on the US airline industry and the anthrax story also add to the uncertainty...​
​​
But have in mind that Seasonalities in June for AAPL are weak as stated in my Weekly Research:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ?


​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.26 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.26, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.94 to MAX $131.51
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.75 to MAX $127.17

​​Seasonals are in a Slow Bleed Pattern til June 7.


​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.54 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.98 to 0.94). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$126.46 support and $130.26 as resistance.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.62 support and $132.40 as resistance.

​​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 with $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $128.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.26 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.26 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.94 ​​max $131.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.26 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.26 but above $128.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​75 max $127.17.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.00 - $130.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.12 and $128.62 and $127.75 Resistance :​​ $130.26 and $130.94 and $131.51

June 3  Rebound ?
​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​So we did reach $131.39 and fade miserably to break ​back
​that resistance trendline that is for today at $131.43.​​Weak technicals it is...

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$126.80 support and $130.66 as resistance
for today...​​​This market is choppy, trendless and tough to trade...

I think we will have a tiny rebound today and challenge the resistance from that channel at $130.66 MAX $131.00 and fade... We are making since the top at $132.97 daily lower highs...​
Conviction is low...​​​ Plenty of rumors on a potential Greece agreement and threat on the US airline industry
also add to the uncertainty...​
​​
But have in mind that Seasonalities in June for AAPL are weak as stated in my Weekly Research:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ?


​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.66 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.66, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.46 to MAX $132.40
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.69, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.68 to MAX $127.17

​​Seasonals are Bullish til June 3.


​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.48 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.86 to 0.98). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with ​$126.80 support and $130.66 as resistance.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.69 support and $132.40 as resistance.


​​We broke on June 2 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 with $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $128.69 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.66 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.66 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.46 ​​max $132.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.66 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.66 but above $128.69 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.68 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​68 max $127.17.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.30 - $131.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.32 and $128.69 and $127.68 Resistance :​​ $130.66 and $131.46 and $132.40

June 2 Failed to Break Resistance Trendline ?
​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​So we had that end of the month correction on the SP500
​and the weekly options magnet at the $130 handle.​Now I expect a tiny
​rebound to retest in the next few trading sessions of the Resistance Trendline for today at $ 131.40. Failing to break it or not on a daily close will trigger the remaining technicals pattern...

So we did reach $131.39 and fade miserably to break back that resistance trendline tht is for today at $131.43.​​
Weak technicals it is...

But have in mind that Seasonalities in June for AAPL are weak as stated in my Weekly Research:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ?


​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.98 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.98, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.43 to MAX $132.50
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.84, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.61 to MAX $127.17

​​Seasonals are Bullish til June 3.


​​A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2)On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3)On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.64 to 0.86). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.77 support and $132.50 as resistance

We are also back within an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.98 support and $133.47 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 with $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $128.84 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.98 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.98 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.43 ​​max $132.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.98 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.98 but above $128.84 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.84 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​61 max $127.17.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.50 - $131.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.98 and $128.84 and $127.61 Resistance :​​ $130.98 and $131.43 and $132.50
June 1 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​So last day for end of the month rebalancing
​( selling equities and buy bonds ) will keep slight pressure on US equities
​today. But the most importnat factor for Apple Shares today is the Weekly
​Options Magnet; the least pain for market makers is below the $130 handle...
​​
So we had that end of the month correction on the SP500 and the weekly options magnet at the $130 handle.
​Now I expect a tiny rebound to retest in the next few trading sessions of the Resistance Trendline for today at $ 131.40. Failing to break it or not on a daily close will trigger the remaining technicals pattern...

But have in mind that Seasonalities in June for AAPL are weak as stated in my Weekly Research:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ?


​​​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $131.40 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.40, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.57 to MAX $133.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.64, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.76 to MAX $127.55

​​Seasonals are Bullish til June 3.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2)On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3)On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.53 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.42 to 0.64). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.82 support and $132.57 as resistance

We are also back within an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.64 support and $133.13 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of May 4 with $129.27 as support and $136.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $129.64 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.40 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.40 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.57 ​​max $133.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $131.40 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.40 but above $129.64 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.64 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​82 max $127.55.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $130.00 - $131.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.90 and $129.64 and $128.82 Resistance :​​ $130.98 and $131.40 and $132.57
May 29 Month End - Weekly Options Magnet ?
​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I think we will shift back to month end behavior with risk
​of a slight profit taking in equities...​​So for AAPL kind of 129 to 133 range
​til month end...​ And tough to trade...

​​So last day for end of the month rebalancing ( selling equities and buy bonds ) will keep slight pressure on US equities today. But the most importnat factor for Apple Shares today is the Weekly Options Magnet; the least pain for market makers is below the $130 handle...
​​
​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $132.04, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.65 to MAX $133.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $131.33, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $130.05 to MAX $129.28

​​Seasonals are Bullish til May 31.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2)On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3)On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.58 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.37 to 0.42). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.89 support and $132.65 as resistance

We are also back within an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$129.28 support and $132.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 18 with ​$130.82 support and $133.25 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $125.54 as support and $135.04 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $131.33 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.65 ​​max $133.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $132.04 but above $131.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $131.33 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$130.​05 max $129.28.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $130.00 - $132.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.33 and $130.05 and $129.28 Resistance :​​ $132.26 and $132.65 and $133.60

May 28 Month End ?
​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Well that Asset Mix Rebalancing started quite violently on
​May 26. What drives it is the US Dollar outperformance lately ( DXY Index )
​bringing on top of it some international sellers.
Also decorrelation of Apple vs SP500 make it underperformed in the sell off...​
Expect a tiny rebound today to $130.72 MAX $131.25 before resuming downtrend.

The dead cat bounce have been stronger than expected. Lately, we get extreme shift in markets as we often encounter near market highs...

I think we will shift back to month end behavior with risk of a slight profit taking in equities...​​
So for AAPL kind of 129 to 133 range til month end...​ And tough to trade...
​​
​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $132.04, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.81 to MAX $133.13
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $131.30, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $130.05 to MAX $129.12

​​Seasonals are Bullish til May 31.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2)On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3)On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.38 to 0.37). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$128.98 support and $132.75 as resistance

We are also back within an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$128.55 support and $132.44 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 18 with ​$130.82 support and $133.25 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $125.54 as support and $135.04 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $131.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.81 ​​max $133.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $132.04 but above $131.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $131.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​49 max $127.27.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $131.00 - $132.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.30 and $130.05 and $129.12 Resistance :​​ $132.46 and $132.75 and $133.60

May 27 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 26 below $131.21 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​Support Trendline today at ​$131.21. Failing to close above
​$131.21 today will cancel the Bull Impulse ​and back into the uptrend channel.
​SP500 did not close above his Resistance Trendline. Todays level is 2130.
The Battle will be this week between the Bullish Seasonalities and Month End Rebalancing as explained in my Weekly Research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - May Seasonals Revisited ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​Well that Asset Mix Rebalancing started quite violently on May 26. What drives it is the US Dollar outperformance lately ( DXY Index ) bringing on top of it some international sellers.
Also decorrelation of Apple vs SP500 make it underperformed in the sell off...​
Expect a tiny rebound today to $130.72 MAX $131.25 before resuming downtrend.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...
​​
​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $132.04, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.81 to MAX $133.13
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.52, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.49 to MAX $127.27

​​Seasonals are Bullish til May 31.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 26, ​closed ​below the Resistance Trendline then at $131.21
​2) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
3)On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​4) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
5) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​6) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​7) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
8) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​9) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.62 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.60 to 0.38). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with ​$129.02 support and $132.81 as resistance

We are also back within an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$128.49 support and $132.04 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 18 with ​$130.82 support and $133.25 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $125.54 as support and $135.04 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $129.52 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.81 ​​max $133.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $132.04 but above $129.52 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.52 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​49 max $127.27.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.50 - $131.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.52 and $128.49 and $127.27 Resistance :​​ $130.72 and $131.25 and $132.04

May 26 Seasonals vs Month End ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 14 above $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​Finally On May 21, Apple Shares closed Above the
​Resistance Trendline then at $131.12. Becomes Support Trendline today at
​$131.16. Failing to close above $131.16 today will cancel the Bull Impulse
​and back into the uptrend channel. SP500 did not close above his Resistance Trendline. Todays level is 2129.5.

Support Trendline today at ​$131.21. Failing to close above $131.21 today will cancel the Bull Impulse
​and back into the uptrend channel. SP500 did not close above his Resistance Trendline. Todays level is 2130.

Weekly Options last Friday had little impact, quite surprise of that...

​Finally it went on May 22 below the 0.75 trehold level on the correlation factor​​ between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares. Almost a record: 16 days.

​​​The Battle will be this week between the Bullish Seasonalities and Month End Rebalancing as explained in my Weekly Research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - May Seasonals Revisited ?


​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $132.83, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $133.25 to MAX $133.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $131.21, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $130.82 to MAX $128.42

​​Seasonals are Bullish til May 31.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 22, ​closed ​above the Weekly Resistance of an uptrend channel at $130.96
2) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​3) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
4) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​5) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​6) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
7) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​8) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.60). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on May 18 with ​$130.82 support and $133.25 as resistance

​​We broke on May 21 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$127.43 support and $130.98 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on May 20 an uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$130.09 support and $132.56 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $125.54 as support and $135.04 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $131.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.83 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.83 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $133.25 ​​max $133.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $131.21 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.95 but above $130.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $131.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$130.​82 max $128.42.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $131.20 - $132.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.63 and $131.21 and $130.82 Resistance :​​ $132.83 and $133.25 and $133.60

May 22 Finally Break the Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 14 above $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​The next big challenge for the market is the Resistance
​Trendline that ​started on March 19 and is at $131.12 for today...​ Twice we
​failed to break. Same thing on SP500 futures: We failed to break and stay
​above the second resistance ​trendline on ​​May 19 and May 20: today s level is 2129.
​​
​Finally On May 21, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12. Becomes Support Trendline today at $131.16. Failing to close above $131.16 today will cancel the Bull Impulse and back into the uptrend channel. SP500 did not close above his Resistance Trendline. Todays level is 2129.5.

My concern for today s is that the Weekly Option Magnet​ least pain for market makers is the $130 handle.

​​​The other technical f​actor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...
Almost a record: 16 days. And as mentioned in the Weekly Research, some Volatility Ahead: ​​
​Correlation Risks Back into the Danger Zone ?

​​Even with the iCahn Experiment, the correlation factor with the SP500 did not change much at 0.97,

​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.95, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.72 to MAX $133.13
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $130.31, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $129.34 to MAX $128.31

Take Note that ​For the weekly, we are above the Resistance of an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with 130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Seasonals are Bullish til May 31.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12
​2) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
3) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​4) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​5) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
6) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​7) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.99 to 0.97). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on May 18 with ​$130.31 support and $132.72 as resistance

​​We broke on May 21 an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$127.43 support and $130.98 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on May 20 an uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$130.09 support and $132.56 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with $124.46 as support and $130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $130.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.92 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.95 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.72 ​​max $133.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $130.31 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.95 but above $130.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $130.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$129.​34 max $128.31.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $130.00 - $131.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.16 and $130.31 and $129.34 Resistance :​​ $131.95 and $132.72 and $133.13
May 21 Failed to Break Again the Resistance Trendline ?
​We did close on May 14 above $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​The next big challenge for the market is the Resistance Trendline that
​started on March 19 and is at $131.12 for today...​ Twice we failed to break.

Same thing on SP500 futures: We failed to break and stay above the second resistance ​trendline on ​​May 19 and May 20: today s level is 2129.
​​

​​​The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...
And as mentioned in the Weekly Research, some Volatility Ahead: ​​
​Correlation Risks Back into the Danger Zone ?

​​Even with the iCahn Experiment, the correlation factor with the SP500 did not change much at 0.99...


​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.12, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.59 to MAX $133.13
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.34, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.23 MAX $127.43

Take Note that ​For the weekly, we are near the Resistance of an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with 130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.98 to 0.99). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on May 20 an uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$130.09 support and $132.56 as resistance.

​​​We also have an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$127.43 support and $130.98 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with $124.46 as support and $130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $129.34 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.12 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.59 ​​max $133.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $129.34 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.12 but above $129.34 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.34 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​23 max $127.43.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.30 - $131.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.34 and $128.23 and $127.43 Resistance :​​ $131.12 and $131.59 and $133.13
May 20 Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 14 above $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​The next big challenge for the market is the Resistance Trendline that
​started on March 19 and is at $131.09 for today...​

We had yesterday on SP500 futures a very bad candle - a shooting star. I expect volatility picking up soon in the financial markets as the US Dollar started to shift upward...​​
​​
​​​The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...
And as mentioned in the Weekly Research, some Volatility Ahead: ​​
​Correlation Risks Back into the Danger Zone ?

​​Even with the iCahn Experiment, the correlation factor with the SP500 did not change much at 0.99...


​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.09, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.59 to MAX $132.56
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.23, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.15 MAX $126.70

Take Note that ​For the weekly, we are near the Resistance of an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with 130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.98 to 0.99). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$130.09 support and $132.56 as resistance.

​​​We also have an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$127.12 support and $130.63 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with $124.46 as support and $130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $129.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.09 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.09 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.59 ​​max $132.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $129.23 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.03 but above $129.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​15 max $126.70.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.30 - $131.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.64 and $129.23 and $128.15 Resistance :​​ $130.63 and $131.09 and $131.59
May 19 iCahn Experiment ?
​​​We did close on May 14 above $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​ ​​We are getting into A Resistance Zone: taking the peak
​prices of March 3, 4, 6,9, 18 and 19 all between $129.16 to $129.57.
​High price on May 15 was $129.49....

Well, with the iCahn Apple Experiment, that resistance zone was broken a lot easier than I thought​​.
​​Icahn thinks everyone else is too stupid to understand what ​Apple is really worth.

The most interesting pasrt is when he published his Tweet arountd 11.00 am, market was in correction mode in Apple Shares: Timing is everything they say!

​​​The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...
And as mentioned in the Weekly Research, some Volatility Ahead: ​​
​Correlation Risks Back into the Danger Zone ?

​​Even with the iCahn Experiment, the correlation factor with the SP500 did not change much at 0.98...

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.03, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.59 to MAX $132.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.23, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.12 MAX $126.64

Take Note that ​For the weekly, we are near the Resistance of an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with 130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.62 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.98). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$130.01 support and $132.12 as resistance.

​​​We also have an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.67 support and $130.21 as resistance.
​​
​​We broke on May 14 a downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.70 as support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with $124.46 as support and $130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $129.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.03 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.03 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.59 ​​max $132.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $129.23 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.03 but above $129.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​12 max $126.64.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $130.00 - $131.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $130.01 and $129.23 and $128.12 Resistance :​​ $131.03 and $131.59 and $132.12

May 18 Resistance Zone Ahead ?
​​​We did close on May 14 $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​ ​​Finally we did have the most expected Break Out on the
​SP500 futures. To be a Real one for me, we should not trade back below
​( Daily close I mean ) for the next few trading sessions; today s level is 2110.
​The equivalent level for Apple Shares is $127.40 for me...

​​Usually, when we have Break Out with New Highs, it gain strenght and
​momentum​; in our case, it is a weak one on Low Volumeon SP500 futures and Apple Shares: Market Fatigue....

​We are getting into A Resistance Zone: taking the peak prices of March 3, 4, 6,9, 18 and 19 all between $129.16 to $129.57. High price on May 15 was $129.49....

​The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...
And as mentioned in the Weekly Research, some Volatility Ahead: ​​
​Correlation Risks Back into the Danger Zone ?

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.42, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.15 to MAX $131.59
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $128.12, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.56 MAX $125.87

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.87 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.94 to 0.97). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$128.97 support and $131.15 as resistance.

​​​We also have an old uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.32 support and $129.88 as resistance.
​​

​​We broke on May 14 a downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.70 as support and $127.40 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of November 24 with $124.46 as support and $130.96 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $128.12 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.42 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.42 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.15 ​​max $131.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.12 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.42 but above $128.12 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.12 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​56 max $125.87.

Apple shares underformed the SP500 on May 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.10 - $129.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.12 and $127.86 and $126.56 Resistance :​​ $129.54 and $129.88 and $130.42
May 15 Puzzled ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 14 $126.51 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

I was puzzled yesterday with that strong up move without any price correction.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​That market continue to surprise me on the SP500 futures
​with huge move up or down with a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we do not have a Real Break Out.​​

​​Finally we did have the most expected Break Out on the SP500 futures. To be a Real one for me, we should not trade back below ( Daily close I mean ) for the next few trading sessions; today s level is 2111. The equivalent level for Apple Shares is $127.40 for me...

Options Weekly magnet favors a close below the 130 handle for sure as a huge chunk of calls at that level;
​the least pain for market makers are near the 125 handle.​

​The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.08, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.15 to MAX $131.59
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.66, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.52 MAX $125.87

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


​​
A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.88 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.95 to 0.94). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 12 with ​$128.12 support and $130.08 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 14 a downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.70 as support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 11 an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $127.66 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.08 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.08 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.15 ​​max $131.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.66 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.08 but above $127.66 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.66 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​52 max $125.87.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.70 - $130.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.12 and $127.66 and $126.52 Resistance :​​ $129.25 and $130.08 and $131.15

May 14 Still Watch the 50 DMA ?
​​​We did close on May 11 below $126.69 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Not much have changed for me since yesterday.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​That market continue to surprise me on the SP500 futures
​with huge move up or down with a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we do not have a Real Break Out.​​

The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...

In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

I am Still focusing on the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) for Apple Shares for now at $126.51.
It is the 3rd day with a daily close below the 50 DMA.​
​​​​
We started a brand new downtrend channel with $124.70 as support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.51, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.40​ to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.70, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.02 MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.

A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.80 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.91 to 0.95). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.70 as support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 11 an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​​Starting to trade below $124.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.40 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.51 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.51 but above $124.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​02 max $123.10.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.30 - $127.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.63 and $124.70 and $124​.02 Resistance :​​ $126.51 and $1267.40 and $128.12

May 13
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​​​NEW LINKS starting MAY 14 - check your e mails

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 11 below $126.69 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​Also, we are near a Major Support Trendline that started
​back on March 12 at $125.68. And ​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend
​channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support.
And the ​Daily uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 as support...

In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

That market continue to surprise me on the SP500 futures with huge move up or down with a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we
do not have a Real Break Out.​​

The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...

I am Still focusing on the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) for Apple Shares for now at $126.58.
​​​​
We started a brand new downtrend channel with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.58, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.43​ to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.77, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.02 MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.

A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.87 to 0.91). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 11 an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.68 for today.

We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.58 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.43 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.58 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.58 but above $124.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​02 max $123.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.77 and $124.02 and $123​.36 Resistance :​​ $126.58 and $126.88 and $127.43