TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Daily Technicals   
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February X - Executive Summary - X ?

​​We did close above the $100.00 level on February 4, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $100.00 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $100.00 on a Daily close.

​February X
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will  
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


























​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterd
ay I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​




​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.34 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;  (from  0.47 to 0.90). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​



​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

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​​​

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RATIO AAPL​ Stock over SPX ( Yellow Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )


​ AAPL​ Stock Price Daily  ( Daily Candle Chart )

AAPL Relative Volatility ( Candle Chart )
​7 DMA ( Yellow Line )

AAPL​ Stock Price Daily ( Weekly Candle Chart )



February 5 - Executive Summary - The Wedge Still ?

​​We did close above the $96.04 level on February 4, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $95.40 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $95.40 on a Daily close.

​February 5
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals.
Yesterday s closing was so close of my level at $96.04 that I will keep my stance and think that it was ONLY another dead cat bounce...
​​The wedge will be the key for the next big move...
​​Apple Shares still into that Falling Wedge; levels for February 4 is $89.23 as support and $ 97.88 as resistance.
​The other technical factor to follow a lot is that we are near the precipice on a Relative Basis ( AAPL over SP500 Index Ratio - see 3rd chart below - Yellow Line - Blue Support Trendline ). We are testing again that Support Trendline that started back since June 2014; breaking that Trendline will bring a lot more underperformance from Apple Shares in the next few weeks...

​​
​Financial Markets are quite anxious about the NFP ( Non Farm Payrolls ) today expected at +188k as already the US Dollar in in its biggest weekly weakness since 2009. A weak NFP could spiral in weaker US Dollar and stocks. As the US Dollar tested yesterday the Major Support Trendline that started back since August 24 2015
​at the 96.25 zone. IF we break that Support, it could be a game changer for commodities, foreign currencies and stocks...​ Brace for some volatility still...

We are in a dead cat bounce ONLY again unless we break the wedge resistance.​

​The wedge will be the key for the next big move...
​​Apple Shares still into that Falling Wedge; levels for February 5 is $88.82 as support and $ 97.34 as resistance.

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the $95 handle today...

​​​The other technical factor to follow a lot is that we are near the precipice on a Relative Basis ( AAPL over SP500 Index Ratio - see 3rd chart below - Yellow Line - Blue Support Trendline - Ellipse ). We are testing again that Support Trendline that started back since June 2014; breaking that Trendline will bring a lot more underperformance from Apple Shares in the next few weeks...

​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.34, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $98.07 to MAX $99.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.40 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $94.35 to MAX $93.88.



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.34 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.47 to 0.90). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on January 29 with ​$93.88 support and $96.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.34 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.07 max $99.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $95.40 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.34 but above $95.40 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $95.40 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​35 max $93.88.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.90 - $97.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $95.40 and $94.35 and $93.88 Resistance :​​ $96.76 and $97.34 and $98.07
​​February 4 - Executive Summary - Excess on $96.04 ?

​​We did close below the $95.36 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $96.04 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $96.04 on a Daily close.

​February 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals.
​Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.
​So since month end frenzy buying, we had no follow through as I thought we were as expected only in a dead cat bounce pattern... The wedge will be the key for the next big move...
​​Apple Shares still into that Falling Wedge; levels for February 3 is $89.62 as support and $ 98.24 as resistance.


Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals.
Yesterday s closing was so close of my level at $96.04 that I will keep my stance and think that it was ONLY another dead cat bounce...

​​The wedge will be the key for the next big move...
​​Apple Shares still into that Falling Wedge; levels for February 4 is $89.23 as support and $ 97.88 as resistance.

​The other technical factor to follow a lot is that we are near the precipice on a Relative Basis ( AAPL over SP500 Index Ratio - see 3rd chart below - Yellow Line - Blue Support Trendline ). We are testing again that Support Trendline that started back since June 2014; breaking that Trendline will bring a lot more underperformance from Apple Shares in the next few weeks...

​​​IF we do close today above $96.04, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $97.47 to MAX $97.88.
​​​​IF we do close today below $94.35 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $93.34 to MAX $92.39.




​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.35 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.10 to 0.47). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on January 29 with ​$93.96 support and $96.96 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $94.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.79 max $98.24 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $96.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $96.04 but above $94.35 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $94.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$93.​34 max $92.39.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.90 - $96.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $95.40 and $94.35 and $93.96 Resistance :​​ $96.96 and $97.47 and $97.88
​February 3 - Executive Summary - The Wedge Still ?

​​We did close below the $95.36 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $96.04 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $96.04 on a Daily close.

​February 3
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Still into that dead cat bounce as long as above $95.36. A daily close below will trigger back the Bear Trend...
​Apple Shares started to trade within a Large Falling Wedge. ​​Apple Shares levels for that Falling Wedge for February 1 is $89.98 as support and $ 98.68 as resistance. ONLY breaking that resistance trendline from that falling wedge will bring a more sustained rally from a dead cat bounce...
Yesterday price action was a lack of technical strength, no follow trough from last Friday. Weak volume with a Doji candle pattern​, a quite indecisive candle...
​​The other technical factor that concerns me a lot is that we are near the precipice on a Relative Basis ( AAPL over SP500 Index Ratio - see 3rd chart below - Yellow Line - Blue Support Trendline ). We are testing again that Support Trendline that started back since June 2014; breaking that Trendline will bring a lot more underperformance from Apple Shares in the next few weeks...


​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals.
​Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.

​So since month end frenzy buying, we had no follow through as I thought we were as expected only in a dead cat bounce pattern... The wedge will be the key for the next big move...

​​Apple Shares still into that Falling Wedge; levels for February 3 is $89.62 as support and $ 98.24 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $96.04, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $97.79 to MAX $98.24.
​​​​IF we do close today below $94.28 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $93.34 to MAX $92.39.




​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.38 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.08 to 0.10). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on January 29 with ​$92.39 support and $95.42 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $94.28 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.04 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.04 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.79 max $98.24 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $96.04 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $96.04 but above $94.28 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $94.28 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$93.​34 max $92.39.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $96.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $94.28 and $93.34 and $92.39 Resistance :​​ $95.42 and $96.04 and $97.79

February 2 - Executive Summary - No Follow Through ?

​​We did close above the $95.36 level on January 29, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $95.36 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $95.36 on a Daily close.

​February 2
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Month End buying spree was stronger than I thought but here the Bulls need absolutley a follow through this week unless false break out it will become on SPY ETF ( we did close above 190.56 now becomes support ) and ONLY a Dead Cat Bounce Phase still on Apple Shares...
Why I think so. In my last Weekly Research, I mentioned that: ​​Since December 29 1015, Apple Shares started to trade within a Large Falling Wedge. ​​Apple Shares levels for that Falling Wedge for February 1 is $90.35 as support and $ 99.21 as resistance. ONLY breaking that resistance trendline from that falling wedge will bring a more sustained rally from a dead cat bounce... Here s the details: Big Picture: My Dear Falling Wedge ?


Still into that dead cat bounce as long as above $95.36. A daily close below will trigger back the Bear Trend...

​Apple Shares started to trade within a Large Falling Wedge. ​​Apple Shares levels for that Falling Wedge for February 1 is $89.98 as support and $ 98.68 as resistance. ONLY breaking that resistance trendline from that falling wedge will bring a more sustained rally from a dead cat bounce...

Yesterday price action was a lack of technical strength, no follow trough from last Friday. Weak volume with a Doji candle pattern​, a quite indecisive candle...
​​
The other technical factor that concerns me a lot is that we are near the precipice on a Relative Basis ( AAPL over SP500 Index Ratio - see 3rd chart below - Yellow Line - Blue Support Trendline ). We are testing again that Support Trendline that started back since June 2014; breaking that Trendline will bring a lot more underperformance from Apple Shares in the next few weeks...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.34, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $98.33 to MAX $98.68.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.36 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $94.35 to MAX $93.34.



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.44 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.26 to 0.08). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on January 28 with ​$98.19 support and $101.19 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.34 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.33 max $98.68 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $95.36 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.34 but above $95.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $95.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​35 max $93.34.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $96.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $95.36 and $94.35 and $93.34 Resistance :​​ $96.71 and $97.34 and $98.33
​​​February 1 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce Only ?

​​We did close above the $95.36 level on January 29, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $95.36 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $95.36 on a Daily close.

​February 1
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday was very interesting in terms of price action for Apple Shares: A new low at $92.39 and almost kissed the flash crash low of $92.00 on August 24 2015. Opened at $93.79 and closed at $94.09 so bringing a Hammer Pattern at the bottom of the Range...
​​Also Month End should bring some asset class rebalancing : SP500 Index down -8.24% since end of last year compare to the IEF ETF ( Mid-Term US Treasury Bonds ) at +2.90%. So expect some buying of stocks to sell bonds. I can t remember having seen that big difference in terms of performance lately...And Apple Shares are down ​-12.33% that could trigger some rebalancing And Buybacks should resume this Friday for AAPL.
Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the $95 handle today...​
​Don t be mislead, it will be ONLY another Dead Cat Bounce as I will explain in my next Weekly Research.​
​​​​STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $99.21 level ( which is the daily resistance from a falling wedge that started back since December 7 2015 )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend


​Month End buying spree was stronger than I thought but here the Bulls need absolutley a follow through this week unless false break out it will become on SPY ETF ( we did close above 190.56 now becomes support ) and ONLY a Dead Cat Bounce Phase still on Apple Shares...

Why I think so. In my last Weekly Research, I mentioned that: ​​Since December 29 1015, Apple Shares started to trade within a Large Falling Wedge. ​​Apple Shares levels for that Falling Wedge for February 1 is $90.35 as support and $ 99.21 as resistance. ONLY breaking that resistance trendline from that falling wedge will bring a more sustained rally from a dead cat bounce... Here s the details: Big Picture: My Dear Falling Wedge ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.34, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $98.77 to MAX $99.21.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.36 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $94.35 to MAX $93.34.



​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.36 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.41 to 0.26). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with ​$96.30 support and $99.21 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.34 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.77 max $99.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $95.36 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.34 but above $95.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $95.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​35 max $93.34.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.40 - $97.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $96.30 and $95.36 and $94.35 Resistance :​​ $97.34 and $98.77 and $99.21


​​January 29 - Executive Summary - Hammer and Month End ?

​​We did close below the $98.37 level on January 27, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close below $95.36 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $95.36 on a Daily close.

​January 29
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
As I wrote yesterday, $98.37 more than at risk today​; Apple Shares could bleed and retest the $94.10 to $95.36 zone will not be a surprise to me... Expect Relative Volatility to collapse today as mentioned in the Weekly Research... We got lower than my zone and closed at the low of January 20 at $93.42. Also, as expected the Relative Volatility collapse from 1.79 to 1.42...​​ Trader will take the $92 handle as the last defensive stance on Apple Shares...
A lot of technical damage have been done as we broke the weekly support trendline that started back since June 26 2013​ and stand at $99.30 - 2nd chart below - bottom blue line. Also we tested yesterday on a relative basis (AAPL over SP500) a Major Support Trendline that started back in July 2013 - 3rd chart below - blue line.
​What is tough here is that SPY ETF rejected again the 190.56 zone yesterday and Apple Shares start to look cheap for portfolio managers as the dividend yield is at 2.2% compare to SP Tech stocks at 1.3% and Dow Jones Stocks at 2.8%...​​ And Buybacks should resume this Friday. So a $92 to $97 range won t surprise me til the end of the week.

Yesterday was very interesting in terms of price action for Apple Shares: A new low at $92.39 and almost kissed the flash crash low of $92.00 on August 24 2015. Opened at $93.79 and closed at $94.09 so bringing a Hammer Pattern at the bottom of the Range...

​​Also Month End should bring some asset class rebalancing : SP500 Index down -8.24% since end of last year compare to the IEF ETF ( Mid-Term US Treasury Bonds ) at +2.90%. So expect some buying of stocks to sell bonds. I can t remember having seen that big difference in terms of performance lately...And Apple Shares are down ​-12.33% that could trigger some rebalancing And Buybacks should resume this Friday for AAPL.

Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the $95 handle today...​

Don t be mislead, it will be ONLY another Dead Cat Bounce as I will explain in my next Weekly Research.​
​​​​STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $99.21 level ( which is the daily resistance from a falling wedge that started back since December 7 2015 )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $95.36, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $96.63 to MAX $97.34.
​​​​IF we do close today below $93.34 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $92.00 to MAX $90.88.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern for January 29.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.40 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.60 to 0.41). Those risks factors are Slightly Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on January 27 a downtrend channel that started on January 25 with ​$97.88 support and $100.13 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $93.34 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.36 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.36 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.63 max $97.34 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $95.36 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $95.36 but above $93.34 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $93.34 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $90.88.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.40 - $95.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $94.10 and $93.34 and $92.39 Resistance :​​ $95.36 and $96.63 and $97.34

January 28 - Executive Summary - Damage Report Captain ?

​​We did close below the $98.37 level on January 27, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close below $96.63 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $96.63 on a Daily close.

​January 28
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
As I wrote yesterday on Earnings, the battle will be between the growth of iPhone sales in China compare to the impact of the strong US Dollar on gross margin:
1) ​Greater China continues to be a large revenue driver for Apple, accounting for $18.4 billion in revenue, up 14 percent from the $16.14 billion the region drew in for the company last year. The company started to notice “softness” in Greater China earlier this month...
2) Foreign Exchange Weighs On Apple’s Q1 Sales To The Tune Of $5B...
​Those 2 factors will continue to weight in 2016 on Earnings and Apple Shares...​
​​​STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend
​$98.37 more than at risk today​; Apple Shares could bleed and retest the $94.10 to $95.36 zone will not be a surprise to me... Expect Relative Volatility to collapse today as mentioned in the Weekly Research...

As I wrote yesterday, $98.37 more than at risk today​; Apple Shares could bleed and retest the $94.10 to $95.36 zone will not be a surprise to me... Expect Relative Volatility to collapse today as mentioned in the Weekly Research... We got lower than my zone and closed at the low of January 20 at $93.42. Also, as expected the Relative Volatility collapse from 1.79 to 1.42...​​ Trader will take the $92 handle as the last defensive stance on Apple Shares...

A lot of technical damage have been done as we broke the weekly support trendline that started back since June 26 2013​ and stand at $99.30 - 2nd chart below - bottom blue line. Also we tested yesterday on a relative basis (AAPL over SP500) a Major Support Trendline that started back in July 2013 - 3rd chart below - blue line.

What is tough here is that SPY ETF rejected again the 190.56 zone yesterday and Apple Shares start to look cheap for portfolio managers as the dividend yield is at 2.2% compare to SP Tech stocks at 1.3% and Dow Jones Stocks at 2.8%...​​ And Buybacks should resume this Friday. So a $92 to $97 range won t surprise me til the end of the week.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $96.63, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $97.34 to MAX $97.88.
​​​​IF we do close today below $93.34 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $92.00 to MAX $90.88.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til January 28.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.42 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.60). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on January 27 a downtrend channel that started on January 25 with ​$97.88 support and $100.13 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $93.34 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.63 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.34 max $97.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $96.63 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $96.63 but above $93.34 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $93.34 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $90.88.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $95.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $94.10 and $93.34 and $92.00 Resistance :​​ $95.50 and $96.63 and $97.34
January 27 - Executive Summary - Mixed Results for Q1 Earnings ?

​​We did close above the $97.30 level on January 22, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $98.37 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $98.37 on a Daily close.

​January 27
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
D-Day for Apple Shares​. The battle will be between the growth of iPhone sales in China compare to the impact of the strong US Dollar on gross margin... Forward guidance it is... Tough call it is. ​​But to say the least, expectations are more in line (more conservatives) than any of the past 5 years. Let s see but as I wrote in my weekly research 2 weeks ago, Q1 are the least interesting to trade in terms of risk reward; trade accordingly...
STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

As I wrote yesterday on Earnings, the battle will be between the growth of iPhone sales in China compare to the impact of the strong US Dollar on gross margin:
1) ​Greater China continues to be a large revenue driver for Apple, accounting for $18.4 billion in revenue, up 14 percent from the $16.14 billion the region drew in for the company last year. The company started to notice “softness” in Greater China earlier this month...
2) Foreign Exchange Weighs On Apple’s Q1 Sales To The Tune Of $5B...

Those 2 factors will continue to weight in 2016 on Earnings and Apple Shares...​

​​STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

$98.37 more than at risk today​; Apple Shares could bleed and retest the $94.10 to $95.36 zone will not be a surprise to me... Expect Relative Volatility to collapse today as mentioned in the Weekly Research...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $102.90, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $104.82 to MAX $105.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $98.37 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.43 to MAX $94.10.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 21 til January 26.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.79 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.73 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on January 25 with ​$97.88 support and $100.13 as resistance.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on January 20 with ​$100.88 support and $105.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $98.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.82 max $105.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $98.37 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $102.90 but above $98.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $98.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​43 max $94.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.40 - $97.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $96.43 and $95.36 and $94.10 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $99.11 and $100.13

January 26 - Executive Summary - D-Day for Q1 Earnings Results ?

​​We did close above the $97.30 level on January 22, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $98.37 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $98.37 on a Daily close.

​January 26
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Weekly Research this week about the collapse of Relative Volatility after the Q1 ER (Earnings Release) :
​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior Before Q1 ER (Earnings Release) ?
And remember from last week research: Peak price is reached at T-1 and Relative Price is reached at the T-3 prior the Q1 ER event - January 26.​ Market will start to focus on the 20 DMA at $101.53...
​​​I was expecting a Dead Cat Bounce on SPY ETF to MAX 190.56 last Friday and we did have it...
I was expecting a Dead Cat Bounce on Apple Shares to MAX $99.44 last Friday and we did exceed it by a lot...
Seems I did underestimate the Q1 Earnings Results Fever...
​​​On Apple Shares, the next few trading sessions are critical to have a follow through: stay above $98.37 on a daily close and break the $102.90 strong resistance on a daily close also...​ Unless it will be Only a Dead Cat Bounce...​​​​​​​​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

D-Day for Apple Shares​. The battle will be between the growth of iPhone sales in China compare to the impact of the strong US Dollar on gross margin... Forward guidance it is... Tough call it is. ​​But to say the least, expectations are more in line (more conservatives) than any of the past 5 years. Let s see but as I wrote in my weekly research 2 weeks ago, Q1 are the least interesting to trade in terms of risk reward; trade accordingly...

STILL: ​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $102.90, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $104.82 to MAX $105.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $98.37 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $97.71 to MAX $96.43.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 21 til January 26.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.72 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.73). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with ​$99.41 support and $104.18 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $98.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.82 max $105.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $98.37 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $102.90 but above $98.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $98.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​71 max $96.43.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.70 - $100.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $98.37 and $97.71 and $96.43 Resistance :​​ $100.48 and $101.56 and $102.90

​MACRO Q1 Tech Levels:
​​​​​Support : $93.42 and $92.00 and $89.65 Resistance :​​ $102.90 and $107.35 and $111.00

​​January 25 - Executive Summary - Q1 Earnings Results Fever ?

​​We did close above the $97.30 level on January 22, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below $98.37 will trigger the Bearish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $98.37 on a Daily close.

​January 22
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
I wrote yesterday that: ​ Tested the $95.18 zone and rebounded violently on January 20. Ideally today we have a daily close above $98.19... Traded $97.88.... In Consolidation still...
​Second sign of consolidation on January 21 as no new low in place and we tested the resistance trendline then at $97.30 and failed to close above. I expect today a dead cat bounce towards $98.19 MAX $99.44.
$99.44 is the weekly resistance trendline... ​Only ​a daily close above $102.90 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...​ Til then consolidation / dead cat bounce again...
​A Daily close above $98.19 today open the door to $100.48 to $102.90...
​​Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the $97 handle...

Weekly Research this week about the collapse of Relative Volatility after the Q1 ER (Earnings Release) :
​Apple Shares Volatility Behavior Before Q1 ER (Earnings Release) ?
And remember from last week research: Peak price is reached at T-1 and Relative Price is reached at the T-3 prior the Q1 ER event - January 26.​ Market will start to focus on the 20 DMA at $101.53...

​​​I was expecting a Dead Cat Bounce on SPY ETF to MAX 190.56 last Friday and we did have it...
I was expecting a Dead Cat Bounce on Apple Shares to MAX $99.44 last Friday and we did exceed it by a lot...
Seems I did underestimate the Q1 Earnings Results Fever...
​​​On Apple Shares, the next few trading sessions are critical to have a follow through: stay above $98.37 on a daily close and break the $102.90 strong resistance on a daily close also...​ Unless it will be Only a Dead Cat Bounce...​​​​​​​​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance from dead cat will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 190.56 to turn Bullish on SP500 from a dead cat bounce and
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $102.90, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $104.82 to MAX $105.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $98.37 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $97.71 to MAX $96.43.

​​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 21 til January 26.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.70 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.80). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with ​$98.37 support and $102.90 as resistance.

​​We broke on January 22 a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with ​$90.51 support and $96.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $98.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.82 max $105.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $98.37 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $102.90 but above $98.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $98.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​71 max $96.43.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.50 - $102.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $99.87 and $98.37 and $97.71 Resistance :​​ $101.53 and $102.90 and $104.82
​​​January 22 - Executive Summary - Consolidation ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $97.30 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $97.30 on a Daily close.

​January 22
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday, we did test the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 then at 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend. For that, we need ideally a daily close today above yesterday s high at 187.50.
​​For Apple Shares, we did test the $95.18 zone and rebounded violently: the outperformance yesterday was Counter Trend Trades before Q1 Earnings Release I think. Ideally today we have a daily close above $98.19... Nonetheless, that kind of liquidity trap that bring extra volatility can also bring false signal.
​Trade accordingly...
​​​​​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors: unless dead cat bounce...
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 188.76 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

I wrote yesterday that: ​ Tested the $95.18 zone and rebounded violently on January 20. Ideally today we have a daily close above $98.19... Traded $97.88.... In Consolidation still...

Second sign of consolidation on January 21 as no new low in place and we tested the resistance trendline then at $97.30 and failed to close above. I expect today a dead cat bounce towards $98.19 MAX $99.44.
$99.44 is the weekly resistance trendline... ​Only ​a daily close above $102.90 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...​ Til then consolidation / dead cat bounce again...

​A Daily close above $98.19 today open the door to $100.48 to $102.90...

​​Weekly Options Magnet least pain for market makers is at the $97 handle...

​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.30, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $98.19 to MAX $99.44.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.36 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $94.10 to MAX $93.28.


​​​​​​​Weekly Resistance Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $99.44.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 21 til January 26.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.57 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.77 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with ​$90.51 support and $96.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.19 max $99.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $97.30 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.30 but above $95.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $95.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​10 max $93.28.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.20 - $99.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $96.43 and $95.36 and $94.10 Resistance :​​ $98.19 and $99.44 and $100.48
January 21 - Executive Summary - Liquidity Trap ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $97.30 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $97.30 on a Daily close.

​January 21
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Yester​day I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Market behavior on January 19 after a long week end was more expected to have a stronger consolidation than we had. We opened very strong and faded all day til almost the close, a weak technical behavior indeed.
But the most interesting technical factor is that we are near testing the low made on October 15 2014 at $95.18 and more of a psychological level to me. Having a daily close below will open the door to the $92.00 handle MAX $88.27, the Weekly Support Trendline.

Yesterday, we did test the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 then at 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend. For that, we need ideally a daily close today above yesterday s high at 187.50.

​​For Apple Shares, we did test the $95.18 zone and rebounded violently: the outperformance yesterday was Counter Trend Trades before Q1 Earnings Release I think. Ideally today we have a daily close above $98.19... Nonetheless, that kind of liquidity trap that bring extra volatility can also bring false signal.
​Trade accordingly...

​​​​​To change my mind for today to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors: unless dead cat bounce...
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 188.76 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend

​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.30, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $98.19 to MAX $99.11.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.50 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $94.10 to MAX $93.28.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $88.27.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 21 til January 26.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.57 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.77 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with ​$91.29 support and $97.30 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.19 max $99.11 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $97.30 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.30 but above $95.50 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $95.50 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​10 max $93.28.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.80 - $98.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $95.50 and $94.10 and $93.28 Resistance :​​ $97.30 and $98.19 and $99.11
January 20 - Executive Summary - Still in Downtrend Channel ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $97.96 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $97.96 on a Daily close.

​January 20
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
So as expected, market did not want to hold risk for the long week-end ( was a tiny capitulation pattern ) on SPY and Apple Shares and we have another Dead Cat Bounce today.
​​To change my mind for this week to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 191.83 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research
​​Weekly Research here: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q1 ER ( Earnings Release )? A Very Choppy Ride Indeed...

Market behavior on January 19 after a long week end was more expected to have a stronger consolidation than we had. We opened very strong and faded all day til almost the close, a weak technical behavior indeed.

But the most interesting technical factor is that we are near testing the low made on October 15 2014 at $95.18 and more of a psychological level to me. Having a daily close below will open the door to the $92.00 handle MAX $88.27, the Weekly Support Trendline.

​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $97.96, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $99.11 to MAX $99.87.
​​​​IF we do close today below $95.18 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $93.28 to MAX $92.00.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $88.27.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern from January 14 til January 20.


​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.54 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.29 to 0.77). Those risks factors are Slightly Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with ​$91.76 support and $97.96 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $95.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.96 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.96 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $99.11 max $99.87 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $97.96 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $97.96 but above $95.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $98.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$93.​28 max $92.00.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.30 - $99.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $95.18 and $94.10 and $93.28 Resistance :​​ $96.43 and $97.71 and $99.11
​​​January 19 - Executive Summary - Another Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $99.11 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.11 on a Daily close.

​January 19
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will
​not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.
Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html
I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday we did close above the $99.11 BUT I will stay another day in Bear Camp. Why so? Yesyterday we had from low to high $4.74 difference; this is insane price market action. We did have on January 14 on a daily basis, a new low, a major dead cat bounce on slightly higher volume and Still SPY ETF in a Bear Zone... Nothing to give me confidence at this point...
​​The real question is: who want to hold risk over a long week end? Expect a lot of bad volatility still...
​To change my mind for this week to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 193.01 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research
The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is between the $99 to $100 handle.

So as expected, market did not want to hold risk for the long week-end ( was a tiny capitulation pattern ) on SPY and Apple Shares and we have another Dead Cat Bounce today.

​​To change my mind for this week to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 191.83 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research

​​Weekly Research here: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q1 ER ( Earnings Release )? A Very Choppy Ride Indeed...

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $99.11, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $100.48 to MAX $101.19.
​​​​IF we do close today below $97.30 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.43 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $88.27.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern from January 14 til January 20.


​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.56 to 0.29). Those risks factors are Slightly Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$92.57 support and $99.87 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $97.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.11 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.11 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.48 max $101.19 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.11 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.11 but above $97.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $97.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​43 max $95.18.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.30 - $99.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $97.30 and $96.43 and $95.18 Resistance :​​ $99.11 and $100.48 and $101.19
​January 15 - Executive Summary - Another Failed Dead Cat Bounce Phase ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $99.11 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.11 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 5 to 7 days...

​January 15
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday was almost a textbook example for SPY ETF: Near testing the 195.19 Bullish break out and tumbled and broke 190.56 major support and made new lows... Also for Apple Shares, near testing the $101.27 resistance zone and tumbled. That was my concern and why yesterday I was ONLY on a dead cat bounce phase and not into a Bull phase. Still need a daily close above $102.90 to turn bullish.
Market Volatility is there as long as China Yuan concerns diminish and Emerging Markets currencies stabilize.
Huge Weekly Options Open Interest from the $98 handle to $100 will add to the Volatility...​


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday we did close above the $99.11 BUT I will stay another day in Bear Camp. Why so? Yesyterday we had from low to high $4.74 difference; this is insane price market action. We did have on January 14 on a daily basis, a new low, a major dead cat bounce on slightly higher volume and Still SPY ETF in a Bear Zone... Nothing to give me confidence at this point...

​The real question is: who want to hold risk over a long week end? Expect a lot of bad volatility still...

​To change my mind for this week to a Bullish stance will come from those 2 factors:
​1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 193.01 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research

The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is between the $99 to $100 handle.

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $99.11, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $100.48 to MAX $101.19.
​​​​IF we do close today below $97.30 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.43 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $92.00.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern from January 14 til January 20.


​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.60 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.82 to 0.56). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$93.28 support and $100.48 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $97.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.11 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.11 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.48 max $101.19 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.11 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.11 but above $97.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $97.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​43 max $95.18.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.70 - $99.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $97.30 and $96.43 and $95.18 Resistance :​​ $99.11 and $100.48 and $101.19

January 14 - Executive Summary - Failed Dead Cat Bounce Phase ?

​​We did close below the $98.84 level on January 13, triggering the Bear Case.
Only a daily close above $99.11 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.11 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 5 to 7 days...


​January 14
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday we did close above the $99.87 then triggering the Dead Cat Bounce Phase. Why so?:
1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 195.19 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research

Yesterday was almost a textbook example for SPY ETF: Near testing the 195.19 Bullish break out and tumbled and broke 190.56 major support and made new lows... Also for Apple Shares, near testing the $101.27 resistance zone and tumbled. That was my concern and why yesterday I was ONLY on a dead cat bounce phase and not into a Bull phase. Still need a daily close above $102.90 to turn bullish.

Market Volatility is there as long as China Yuan concerns diminish and Emerging Markets currencies stabilize.

Huge Weekly Options Open Interest from the $98 handle to $100 will add to the Volatility...​

​​​​IF we do close today above $99.11, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $100.13 to MAX $101.19.
​​​​IF we do close today below $97.30 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.43 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $92.00.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Flat Trade Pattern from January 8 til January 14.


​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.86 to 0.82). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$94.07 support and $101.78 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $97.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.11 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.11 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.13 max $101.19 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.11 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.11 but above $97.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $97.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​43 max $95.18.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.40 - $98.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $97.30 and $96.43 and $95.18 Resistance :​​ $99.11 and $100.13 and $101.19

January 13 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce Phase ?

​​We did close above the $99.87 level on January 12, triggering the Dead Cat Bounce Case.
Only a daily close above $102.90 will trigger the Bullish Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $98.84 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 5 to 7 days...


​January 13
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
SPY ETF start to be into oversold conditions as many technical indicators including the SKEW and VIX;
​I will not be surprise of a dead cat bounce within the next few trading sessions:
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
Even IF we have that dead cat bounce on Apple Shares that will be trigger by a Daily close above $99.87, not until a Daily close above $102.90 that I will turn Bullish. See the Weekly Research for explanations.
​Consolidation still prevail as long as Daily close below $99.87 but above $96.43 for today...
​​The tough part here is that I am not sure the yesterday s outperformance of Apple Shares could be sustained...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yesterday we did close above the $99.87 then triggering the Dead Cat Bounce Phase. Why so?:
1) ​We need SPY ETF Daily close above 195.19 to turn Bullish on SP500
2) ​We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend as explained in my last Weekly Research


​​IF we do close today above $101.27, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $102.37 to MAX $102.90.
​​​​IF we do close today below $98.84 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $97.34 to MAX $96.43.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $92.00.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Flat Trade Pattern from January 8 til January 14.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.70 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.86). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$94.76 support and $102.37 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $98.84 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.27 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.27 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.37 max $102.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $98.84 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $101.27 but above $98.84 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Dead Cat Bounce pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $98.84 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​34 max $96.43.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.50 - $101.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $99.87 and $98.84 and $97.34 Resistance :​​ $101.27 and $102.37 and $102.90
​​January 12 - Executive Summary - Consolidation Still ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.87 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 5 to 7 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 12
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Dead cat bounce last Friday was weaker than expected even with a very good Non Farm Payrolls number on SPY ETF and Apple Shares...
We may have a few trading session in a consolidation move ( sideways ) as the seasonals turn that way.
​​As mentioned in my Weekly Research ( Big Picture: Apple and the Yuan ? ): We are at crossroads on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) as we tested last week near the Major Support Trendline and was rejected.
​​Relative Volatility fell tremendously, telling me that a lot of Options Trades have been closed.
​​We are near a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.20 for today.
​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

SPY ETF start to be into oversold conditions as many technical indicators including the SKEW and VIX;
​I will not be surprise of a dead cat bounce within the next few trading sessions:
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?

Even IF we have that dead cat bounce on Apple Shares that will be trigger by a Daily close above $99.87, not until a Daily close above $102.90 that I will turn Bullish. See the Weekly Research for explanations.
​Consolidation still prevail as long as Daily close below $99.87 but above $96.43 for today...

​​The tough part here is that I am not sure the yesterday s outperformance of Apple Shares could be sustained...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​IF we do close today above $99.87, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $101.27 to MAX $102.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $96.43 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.14 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $92.00.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Flat Trade Pattern from January 8 til January 14.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.68 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.92). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$95.41 support and $103.08 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $96.43 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $101.27 max $102.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.87 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.87 but above $96.43 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $96.43 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​14 max $95.18.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.30 - $99.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $97.72 and $96.43 and $95.41 Resistance :​​ $99.11 and $99.87 and $101.27

January 11 - Executive Summary - Consolidation ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.87 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 5 to 7 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 11
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
I expect a tiny dead cat bounce from SPY today but AAPL Shares will be a tough consolidation compare to SPY.
​So for me it is a make it or break it day for Apple Shares. So dead cat bounce towards $97.88 to MAX $99.87.
​A daily close above $99.87 will turn from a dead cat bounce to a bigger move to MAX $102.85 and fall back.
​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $96.74 as support and $104.63 as resistance.
​​Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in September 2014. See 3rd chart below.
​We are testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.20 for today.
​​​​​​​​Least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is 100.00 but light open interest will not make it a big factor today.

​Dead cat bounce last Friday was weaker than expected even with a very good Non Farm Payrolls number on SPY ETF and Apple Shares...

We may have a few trading session in a consolidation move ( sideways ) as the seasonals turn that way.

​As mentioned in my Weekly Research ( Big Picture: Apple and the Yuan ? ): We are at crossroads on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) as we tested last week near the the Major Support Trendline and was rejected.

​Relative Volatility fell tremendously, telling me that a lot of Options Trades have been closed.

​​We are near a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.20 for today.
​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $99.87, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $101.27 to MAX $102.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $96.76 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.14 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $92.00.
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week )​​ to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend to a neutral stance. ( See 2nd chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )​

​​Seasonals are in a Flat Trade Pattern from January 8 til January 14.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.49 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.96). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$96.14 support and $103.74 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $96.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $101.27 max $102.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.87 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.87 but above $96.76 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $96.76 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​14 max $95.18.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.00 - $99.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $96.76 and $96.14 and $95.18 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $99.11 and $99.87
​​January 8 - Executive Summary - Make or Break Day ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $99.87 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 7 to 10 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 8
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Market is into a Capitulation Phase as good liquid stocks start to be beaten quite badly. So we can have a violent reversal within the next few tradings sessions.
Yesterday was almost a textbook example as market tried to close the daily gap at $102.41 and was rejected violently. Seems we will open with another gap down today​ as China's Stock Traders Go Home After 29 Minutes: Chart.
We are near a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.10 for today.

I expect a tiny dead cat bounce from SPY today but AAPL Shares will be a tough consolidation compare to SPY.
​So for me it is a make it or break it day for Apple Shares. So dead cat bounce towards $97.88 to MAX $99.87.
​A daily close above $99.87 will turn from a dead cat bounce to a bigger move to MAX $102.85 and fall back.

​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $96.74 as support and $104.63 as resistance.

​Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in September 2014. See 3rd chart below.
​We are testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.20 for today.

​​​​​​​Least pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options Magnet is 100.00 but light open interest will not make it a big factor today.

​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $99.87, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $101.28 to MAX $102.85.
​​​​IF we do close today below $97.20 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.14 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​Weekly Support Trendline from a Downtrend Channel that started back since December 7 week is at $95.18.

​​We failed to stay above the $114.85 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from December 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.70 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.93 to 0.96). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$96.74 support and $104.63 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $97.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $101.27 max $102.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $99.87 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $99.87 but above $97.20 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $97.20 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​14 max $95.18.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.00 - $99.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $96.14 and $95.18 and $94.10 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $99.87 and $101.27

​​January 7 - Executive Summary - Capitulation Phase Extended ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $101.27 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 7 to 10 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 7
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​Since we broke on December 9 the Support Trendline that started back on August 24 2015, Apple Shares are in a Bear Trend... The Nikkei story yesterday was a very bad news at a bad market timing...
We are in a Capitulation Phase on Apple Shares​​ as we had yesterday almost a Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern and pre-opening market this morning with a huge gap down ($99.90 as I wrote that comment ) from a low on January 5 of $102.41. Volatility will be extreme today.
​​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $98.14 as support and $105.85 as resistance.
​Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in October 2014. See 3rd chart below.
​​
Market is into a Capitulation Phase as good liquid stocks start to be beaten quite badly. So we can have a violent reversal within the next few tradings sessions.

Yesterday was almost a textbook example as market tried to close the daily gap at $102.41 and was rejected violently. Seems we will open with another gap down today​ as China's Stock Traders Go Home After 29 Minutes: Chart.

We are near a Major Support Trendline that started back on January 31 2014 and is at $97.10 for today.

​​​​​​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $101.27, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $102.41 to MAX $103.50.
​​​​IF we do close today below $97.72 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $96.14 to MAX $95.18.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $114.85 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from December 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.84 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.88 to 0.93). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$97.72 support and $105.26 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $97.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.27 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.27 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.41 max $103.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $101.27 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $101.27 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $97.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​14 max $95.18.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.00 - $101.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $97.72 and $96.14 and $95.18 Resistance :​​ $99.87 and $101.27 and $102.41

January 6 - Executive Summary - Capitulation Phase ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $102.41 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 7 to 10 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 6
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $98.85 as support and $106.62 as resistance.
​​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8 for Apple Shares and for SPY start only on January 6. So we are near at historical inflexion point to a painful grind.
​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​Since we broke on December 9 the Support Trendline that started back on August 24 2015, Apple Shares are in a Bear Trend... The Nikkei story yesterday was a very bad news at a bad market timing...

We are in a Capitulation Phase on Apple Shares​​ as we had yesterday almost a Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern and pre-opening market this morning with a huge gap down ($99.90 as I wrote that comment ) from a low on January 5 of $102.41. Volatility will be extreme today.

​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $98.14 as support and $105.85 as resistance.

Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in October 2014. See 3rd chart below.
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $102.41, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $103.50 to MAX $104.63.
​​​​IF we do close today below $99.44 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $98.14 to MAX $97.08.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $114.85 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from December 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.88 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.85 to 0.88). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$98.14 support and $105.85 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $99.44 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.41 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.41 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.50 max $104.63 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $102.41 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $102.41 but above $99.44 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $99.44 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​14 max $97.08.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $103.50 - $106.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $99.44 and $98.14 and $97.08 Resistance :​​ $101.27 and $102.41 and $103.50


​​January 5 - Executive Summary - Seasonals ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $106.62 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 7 to 10 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 5
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
All hope is for the January Effect on the Mighty SP500. From January 6 til January 22 for the past 5 years we had a painful grind for the SP500 Index. Apple Shares are underperforming SP500 during that phase:
​Relative Monthly and Daily Performance in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
Since we broke on December 9 the Support Trendline that started back on August 24 2015, Apple Shares are in a Bear Trend...
​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $99.49 as support and $107.36 as resistance.
Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in October 2014. See 3rd chart below.


​​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $98.85 as support and $106.62 as resistance.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8 for Apple Shares and for SPY start only on January 6. So we are near at historical inflexion point to a painful grind.

​​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $106.62, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $107.36 to MAX $108.70.
​​​​IF we do close today below $103.50 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $102.00 to MAX $101.27.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $114.85 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from December 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.66 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.74 to 0.85). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$98.85 support and $106.62 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $103.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $106.62 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $106.62 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $107.36 max $108.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $106.62 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $106.62 but above $103.50 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $103.50 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$102.​00 max $101.27.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $103.50 - $106.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $104.63 and $103.50 and $102.00 Resistance :​​ $105.57 and $106.62 and $107.36
​​January 4 - Executive Summary - New Year, New Hope for Apple ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $107.36 on a Daily close.
No backup PC for 7 to 10 days...
​Happy New Year

​January 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The real surprise for me on December 17 was that on SPY ETF we came back below 206.36 and tell me we had a false Break Out. And on SPY and AAPL, almost a Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern.Having on December 17 the first close below the $109.63 zone on AAPL ain t good also.We have the Weekly Support Trendline that started on November 2 week at $107.88.Least Pain for Market Makers for the weekly Options Magnet is at the $110 handle.Still expect violent financial markets.
​​​​​​​​​But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 17, we are at -4.47% so very close of the historical trend... So for me from that point, market start to be Greedy as the risk of Counter Trend Trades increase tremendously as the correlation factor collapse...
​​We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​

All hope is for the January Effect on the Mighty SP500. From January 6 til January 22 for the past 5 years we had a painful grind for the SP500 Index. Apple Shares are underperforming SP500 during that phase:
​Relative Monthly and Daily Performance in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

Since we broke on December 9 the Support Trendline that started back on August 24 2015, Apple Shares are in a Bear Trend...

​​​​​We are into the same downtrend channel that started back on December 7 with $99.49 as support and $107.36 as resistance.

​​Technicals continue to be poor for Apple Shares. On a relative basis, last time we hap Apple Shares at those levels compare to the SP500 (ratio) was back in October 2014. See 3rd chart below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $107.36, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $108.70 to MAX $109.63.
​​​​IF we do close today below $104.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $103.50 to MAX $101.27.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $114.85 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from December 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern from January 5 til January 8.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​​​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.87
​​​​​​2) On December 5, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA then at $119.97
​​​​​3) On November 5, Apple Shares closed below the 200 DMA then at $120.90


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.75 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.60 to 0.74). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$99.49 support and $107.36 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $104.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $107.36 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $107.36 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $108.70 max $109.63 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $107.36 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.00 but above $108.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $104.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$103.​50 max $101.27.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 31 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $103.00 - $104.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $103.50 and $102.60 and $101.27 Resistance :​​ $104.63 and $106.26 and $107.36


​​December 18 - Executive Summary - Back to the Coal Mine?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $111.00 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 18
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Seasonals for SPY and AAPL are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 23.
But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 19, we are at -3.94% so very close of the historical trend... So for me from that point, market start to be Greedy as the risk of Counter Trend Trades increase tremendously as the correlation factor collapse... So risk reward is less there as we tested for a second time this week the $109.63 zone and rebounded violently twice......
​We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​

The real surprise for me on December 17 was that on SPY ETF we came back below 206.36 and tell me we had a false Break Out. And on SPY and AAPL, almost a Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern.
Having on December 17 the first close below the $109.63 zone on AAPL ain t good also.

We have the Weekly Support Trendline that started on November 2 week at $107.88.
Least Pain for Market Makers for the weekly Options Magnet is at the $110 handle.
Still expect violent financial markets.

​​​​​​​​But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 17, we are at -4.47% so very close of the historical trend... So for me from that point, market start to be Greedy as the risk of Counter Trend Trades increase tremendously as the correlation factor collapse...

​We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.00, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.25 to MAX $112.80.
​​​​IF we do close today below $108.80 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $107.31 to MAX $105.65.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 23.

​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.86
​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​3) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​4) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​5) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.61 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.25 to 0.00). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$107.31 support and $109.90 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $108.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.25 max $112.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $111.00 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.00 but above $108.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $108.80 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​31 max $105.65.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.50 - $111.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $108.80 and $107.31 and $105.65 Resistance :​​ $109.90 and $111.00 and $112.25
December 17 - Executive Summary - Near Reversal ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $111.99 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 17
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Fed Day as a lot too much focus on rate hike only; focus is put on as already monetary aggregates are in a restrictive mode, hiking rates will be a tiny technical factor: Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?
I will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections ( forward guidance ) by the FOMC on inflation and GDP.
​​Expect tremendous volatility today with the FED, so I suggest reducing risk...​​
Seasonals : But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 15, we are at -3.2% so very close of the historical trend...
We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​

Seasonals for SPY and AAPL are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 23.

But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 19, we are at -3.94% so very close of the historical trend... So for me from that point, market start to be Greedy as the risk of Counter Trend Trades increase tremendously as the correlation factor collapse... So risk reward is less there as we tested for a second time this week the $109.63 zone and rebounded violently twice......

We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $111.99, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $112.80 to MAX $113.51.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.21 to MAX $107.36.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 23.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.86
​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​3) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​4) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​5) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.63 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back out the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.75 to 0.25). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$108.51 support and $111.29 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.99 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.99 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.80 max $113.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $111.99 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $111.99 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​21 max $107.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $113.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​Support : $110.35 and $109.63 and $108.21 Resistance :​​ $111.99 and $112.80 and $113.51

​​December 16 - Executive Summary - Fed Day ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $112.34 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 16
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Yesterday we reached a tiny pattern of capitulation as we made a new low and rebounded violently:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
​​That 50 DMA becomes the resistance Bears need to protect from here at ​$115.98.
I do expect financial markets to be very volatile til year end...​​
​​​Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​ But being short here is a less risk reward interesting trade.

Fed Day as a lot too much focus on rate hike only; focus is put on as already monetary aggregates are in a restrictive mode, hiking rates will be a tiny technical factor: Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?
I will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections ( forward guidance ) by the FOMC on inflation and GDP.

​​Expect tremendous volatility today with the FED, so I suggest reducing risk...​​

Seasonals : But IF history repeat itself, from December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2% ( Average of the past 5 years ). As of December 15, we are at -3.2% so very close of the historical trend...

We broke the support trendline on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) that started back on August 21 2015.
( See 3rd chart below - Ellipse )​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $112.34, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $113.43 to MAX $114.24.
​​​​IF we do close today below $109.63 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $108.38 to MAX $107.36.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 16.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.86
​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​3) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​4) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​5) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.75). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$109.63 support and $112.34 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $109.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.34 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.43 max $114.24 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $112.34 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $112.34 but above $109.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $109.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$108.​38 max $107.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $113.40 with above average volatility.
​​​​Support : $110.35 and $109.63 and $108.38 Resistance :​​ $111.74 and $112.34 and $113.43

FED MACRO LEVELS​
​​​​Support : $109.63 and $107.36 and $105.65 Resistance :​​ $113.43 and $114.24 and $115.97
December 15 - Executive Summary - Capitulation Wave ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $113.32 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 15​
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Last Friday was a demolition derby style of market with the Chinese unpeg story: read my weekly research:
​Big Picture: Same Financial Recipe as August 2015?
A lot of technical damage last week: closed below the wedge support and the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average).
That 50 DMA becomes the resistance Bears need to protect from here at ​$115.93.
I do expect financial markets to be very volatile til year end...​​
​​Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​

Yesterday we reached a tiny pattern of capitulation as we made a new low and rebounded violently:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?

​​That 50 DMA becomes the resistance Bears need to protect from here at ​$115.98.
I do expect financial markets to be very volatile til year end...​​

​​Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​ But being short here is a less risk reward interesting trade.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $113.32, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $114.57 to MAX $115.98.
​​​​IF we do close today below $110.68 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $109.63 to MAX $108.49.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.86
​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​3) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​4) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​5) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.41 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.95 to 0.96). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$110.68 support and $113.32 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $110.68 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.32 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.32 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.57 max $115.98 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $113.32 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $113.32 but above $110.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.68 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​63 max $108.49.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.00 - $113.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.87 and $110.68 and $109.63 Resistance :​​ $113.32 and $114.57 and $115.98
​​December 14 - Executive Summary - Still into the Channel ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $115.39 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 14​
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
We had the expected dead cat bounce as I expected and reached at a few penny above the $116.91 MAX target We failed to stay above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) then at $116.91 on Apple shares and We failed to stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on SPY ETF then at 206.52.
A Daily close below the 50 DMA at $115.86 should accelerate the correction wave.​
We did close slightly below the critical support of that wedge on December 10 then at $116.37.
Technically broken (without conviction)​ though; the risk from here is the $111 handle til December 15.
$116.70 is the December 11 level on that Wedge ( becomes resistance ).​
​​The least pain for market makers is at the $116 handle - but open interest is low, so a lessen factor this week.
​Also take note that the Weekly Support Trendline from an upward Channel that started back on September 28 week 2015 is at $116.62.

Last Friday was a demolition derby style of market with the Chinese unpeg story: read my weekly research:
​Big Picture: Same Financial Recipe as August 2015?

A lot of technical damage last week: closed below the wedge support and the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average).
That 50 DMA becomes the resistance Bears need to protect from here at ​$115.93.

I do expect financial markets to be very volatile til year end...​​
​​Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $115.39, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $115.93 to MAX $116.78.
​​​​IF we do close today below $113.18 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $111.74 to MAX $111.00.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On December 11, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.86
​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​3) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​4) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​5) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.37 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back into the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.57 to 0.95). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a downtrend channel that started on December 7 with ​$111.74 support and $114.38 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $113.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.39 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.39 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.93 max $116.78 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $115.39 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $115.39 but above $113.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $113.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​74 max $111.00.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.80 - $115.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.18 and $111.74 and $111.00 Resistance :​​ $114.38 and $115.39 and $115.93

December 11 - Executive Summary - Broken Wedge ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $117.12 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 11
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Still expect a lot of bad volatility in a very choppy market behavior. We are into for today a dead cat bounce only to 116.37 MAX 116.91 before resuming downtrend... This is a widow maker type of market...
Yesterday afternoon was an excess sell wave; today is crucial to get back above that wedge support....​​
​​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 10, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $120.76 and ​Support at $116.37.
Bulls were unable to break again that resistance zone: ​​ $118.27 to $120.25​

We had the expected dead cat bounce as I expected and reached at a few penny above the $116.91 MAX target We failed to stay above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) then at $116.91 on Apple shares and We failed to stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on SPY ETF then at 206.52.

A Daily close below the 50 DMA at $115.86 should accelerate the correction wave.​

We did close slightly below the critical support of that wedge on December 10 then at $116.37.
Technically broken (without conviction)​ though; the risk from here is the $111 handle til December 15.
$116.70 is the December 11 level on that Wedge ( becomes resistance ).​

​The least pain for market makers is at the $116 handle - but open interest is low, so a lessen factor this week.

Also take note that the Weekly Support Trendline from an upward Channel that started back on September 28 week 2015 is at $116.62.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.12, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.27 to MAX $119.86.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.51 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.22 to MAX $113.32.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​3) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​4) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​5) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.40 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.62 to 0.57). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​We broke on December 4 a downtrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.51 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.12 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.27 max $119.86 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.12 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.12 but above $115.51 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.51 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​22 max $113.32.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.50 - $116.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.51 and $114.22 and $113.32 Resistance :​​ $116.70 and $117.12 and $118.27
​​December 10 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​We did close below the $117.81 level on December 9, triggering the Bear Case.

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below $117.29 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 10
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Many markets are within a Wedge Pattern ready to explode: Bonds (TLT ETF), Stocks and US Dollar Index.
So expect volatility to continue...​
​​Not much have changed for me; Bulls still fighting the Daily Resistance Zone: $118.27 to $120.25​
We are still into that Uptrend Channel with $117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.
​​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 9, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $120.96 and ​Support at $116.06.

Still expect a lot of bad volatility in a very choppy market behavior. We are into for today a dead cat bounce only to 116.37 MAX 116.91 before resuming downtrend... This is a widow maker type of market...

Yesterday afternoon was an excess sell wave; today is crucial to get back above that wedge support....​​

​​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 10, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $120.76 and ​Support at $116.37.

Bulls were unable to break again that resistance zone: ​​ $118.27 to $120.25​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $117.29, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $118.27 to MAX $119.86.
​​​​IF we do close today below $116.37 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.22 to MAX $113.32.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​3) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​4) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​5) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.46 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.51 to 0.62). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 9 an uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​We broke on December 4 a downtrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $116.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.29 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.29 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.27 max $119.86 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $117.29 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $117.29 but above $116.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​22 max $113.32.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.80 - $117.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.08 and $114.22 and $113.32 Resistance :​​ $116.37 and $117.29 and $118.27


​December 9 - Executive Summary - Relative Resistance ?

​​We did close above the $116.97 level on December 4, triggering the Bull Case.
Personally I turn Neutral, awaiting next signal.
Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $117.81 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 9
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Well, that kind of market with huge squeeze​ followed by quick bear reversal is a killer; welcome to saloon s door experiment. I think that behavior will continue til year end...
​​We are still into that Uptrend Channel with $116.95 support and $121.11 as resistance.
We have been in the last two trading sessions into the resistance zone: $118.27 to $120.25​ that gives some problems for Bulls to move higher.
​​​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 8, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $121.11 and ​Support at $115.76.

Many markets are within a Wedge Pattern ready to explode: Bonds (TLT ETF), Stocks and US Dollar Index.
So expect volatility to continue...​

​​Not much have changed for me; Bulls still fighting the Daily Resistance Zone: $118.27 to $120.25​
We are still into that Uptrend Channel with $117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 9, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $120.96 and ​Support at $116.06.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $120.96 to MAX $121.44.
​​​​IF we do close today below $117.81 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.95 to MAX $116.06.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​3) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​4) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​5) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.43 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.65 to 0.51). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$117.81 support and $121.92 as resistance.

​We broke on December 4 a downtrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $117.81 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.96 max $121.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $117.81 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $117.81 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $117.81 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​95 max $115.76.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.80 - $119.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.81 and $116.95 and $116.06 Resistance :​​ $118.60 and $120.25 and $120.96
​​December 8 - Executive Summary - The Channel ?

​​We did close above the $116.97 level on December 4, triggering the Bull Case.
Personally I turn Neutral, awaiting next signal.
Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $118.27 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 8
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) last Friday Market Reaction was a total surprise to me. I was expecting only a dead cat bounce but we had a strong reversal day on very strong volume. Rarely I have been staring at my screens speechless like that but it is what it is.
​​​​​​Convictions is low as I expect violent move like that and many false signal.​​
Reasons why I am so cautious here are explained in part in my Weekly Research for those who did not have
a chance to read it: ​ APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?
​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 7, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $121.18 and ​Support at $115.43.
​Major Divergences continue: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?

Well, that kind of market with huge squeeze​ followed by quick bear reversal is a killer; welcome to saloon s door experiment. I think that behavior will continue til year end...

​​We are still into that Uptrend Channel with $116.95 support and $121.11 as resistance.
We have been in the last two trading sessions intot the resistance zone: $118.27 to $120.25​ that gives some problems for Bulls to move higher.

​​​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 8, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $121.11 and ​Support at $115.76.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $121.11 to MAX $121.51.
​​​​IF we do close today below $118.27 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $116.95 to MAX $115.76.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​3) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​4) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​5) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.57 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.72 to 0.65). Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$116.95 support and $121.11 as resistance.

​We broke on December 4 a downtrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $118.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.11 max $121.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.27 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $118.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.27 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​95 max $115.76.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.90 - $119.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.81 and $116.95 and $115.76 Resistance :​​ $119.25 and $120.25 and $121.11
December 7 - Executive Summary - The Wedge Experiment ?

​​We did close above the $116.97 level on December 4, triggering the Bull Case.
Personally I turn Neutral, awaiting next signal.
Technical Challenge:
​Stay above $117.99 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 7
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Last Friday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds on Decmber 3. A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on SPY.
​​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.
We are challenging on Apple Shares the Weekly Support Trendline at $115.74.
The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options magnet is between the $115 and $116 handles today.

The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) last Friday Market Reaction was a total surprise to me. I was expecting only a dead cat bounce but we had a strong reversal day on very strong volume. Rarely I have been staring at my screens speechless like that but it is what it is.

​​​​​​Convictions is low as I expect violent move like that and many false signal.​​
Reasons why I am so cautious here are explained in part in my Weekly Research for those who did not have
a chance to read it: ​ APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

​So this week will be a day by day approach as I think we could have an explosive type of Market IF we break that Mega Wedge. For December 7, Wedge Levels are: Resistance at $121.18 and ​Support at $115.43.

​Major Divergences continue: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $120.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $121.18 to MAX $121.58.
​​​​IF we do close today below $117.99 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $117.22 to MAX $116.47.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.

​​Seasonals are in a Bleed Trade Pattern til December 15.


​​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA then at $117.31
​​2) On December 4, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $115.35
​​3) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​4) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​5) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.71 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.
​Rarely seen correlation (AAPL vs SPY) going from -044 on December 1 to +0.72 on December 4...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with ​$116.06 support and $120.25 as resistance.

​We broke on December 4 a downtrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $117.99 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.18 max $121.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $117.99 to iAm in a Bullsh Mode...

​A daily close Below $120.25 but above $117.99 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $117.99 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​22 max $116.47.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.00 - $119.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.85 and $117.99 and $117.22 Resistance :​​ $120.25 and $121.18 and $121.58


​​​​December 4 - Executive Summary - Weekly Channel ?

​​We did close below the $118.07 level on Nov 25, triggering the Bear Case.
NEW PAGES starting December 7
Technical Challenge:
​Close below $116.97 on a Daily close.
Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​December 4
​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Yesterday I wrote:​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
All of that Volatility but we remain into a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance. Yesterday we had on SPY a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, so a rejection a new highs for now.
As a Reminder coming from the Weekly Research: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?
​​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 3 til December 19
2) Tiny ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 19 til December 31
Also the Relative Underperformance are near the Support Trendline: see 3rd chartt below - red trendline.
Now Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at $115.33 for today at all costs​.
​Still Expect again a Volatile trading environment...

The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds on Decmber 3. A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on SPY.
​​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.

We are challenging on Apple Shares the Weekly Support Trendline at $115.74.

The least Pain for Market Makers for the Weekly Options magnet is between the $115 and $116 handles today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $116.97, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $117.31 to MAX $118.07.
​​​​IF we do close today below $115.35 then expect another Bearish Impulse: $114.22 to MAX $113.51.

​​​​​​​We failed to stay above the $119.75 level on a weekly basis ( which is the old weekly resistance level back from November 24 2014 - 2nd chart below - Red Trendline )​​ to stay to a Macro bull behavior trend.


​Seasonals are in a Grind Trade Pattern til December 3.

​​​​​​​A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On December 3, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $115.33
​​2) On November 18, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $114.56
​3) On November 10, ​AAPL did broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 then at $117.48.
4) ​On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 20 DMA then at $111.59
​5) On October 20, Apple Shares closed Above the 50 DMA then at $112.27


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.52 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is away of the ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from -0.44 to 0.72). Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a newdowntrend channel that started on November 30 with ​$113.51 support and $116.97 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 3 a downtrend channel that started on November 20 with ​$115.95 support and $118.41 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Starting to trade below $115.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.97 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.31 max $118.07 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $116.97 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $116.97 but above $115.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $115.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​22 max $113.51.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).
​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.50 - $117.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.65 and $114.22 and $113.51 Resistance :​​ $116.97 and $117.31 and $118.07

NFP MACRO LEVELS​
​​​​​​​Support : $113.51 and $112.27 and $111.00 Resistance :​​ $116.97 and $118.07 and $119.75