TRADING APPLE

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APPLE Daily Technicals - Focus Still on the 50 DMA ?   
May 13 ​( From TradingView  )
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 11 below $126.69 then triggering the Bearish Phase...


Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​Also, we are near a Major Support Trendline that started
​back on March 12 at $125.68. And ​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend
​channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support.
And the ​Daily uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 as support...


In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

That market continue to surprise me on the SP500 futures with huge move up or down with a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we
do not have a Real Break Out.​​

The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...

I am Still focusing on the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) for Apple Shares for now at $126.58.
​​​​

We started a brand new downtrend channel with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.58, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.43​ to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.77, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse:  $124.02  MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.

A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74

​​3)
On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA

​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​


On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be  average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;  (from  0.87 to 0.91).         ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 11 an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.68 for today.


We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel  that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $124.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.58 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​


Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.43 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.58 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.58 but above $124.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​02 max $123.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.60 with  above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.77 and $124.02 and $123​.36        Resistance :​​ $126.58 and  $126.88 and $127.43


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RATIO AAPL​ Stock over SPX ( Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )



May 13 Focus Still on the 50 DMA ?

We did close on May 11 below $126.69 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​Also, we are near a Major Support Trendline that started
​back on March 12 at $125.68. And ​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend
​channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support.
And the ​Daily uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 as support...

In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

That market continue to surprise me on the SP500 futures with huge move up or down with a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we
do not have a Real Break Out.​​

The other technical factor that surprise me a lot here is that we have been above 0.75 on the correlation factor​​
between the SP500 Index and Apple Shares since April 30; Simply said, Apple behave like the market...

I am Still focusing on the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) for Apple Shares for now at $126.58.
​​​​
We started a brand new downtrend channel with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.58, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.43​ to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.77, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.02 MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.

A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​

​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.87 to 0.91). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 8 with $124.77 as support and $127.43 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 11 an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​​We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.68 for today.

We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.58 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.43 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.58 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.58 but above $124.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​02 max $123.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.77 and $124.02 and $123​.36 Resistance :​​ $126.58 and $126.88 and $127.43
May 12 Failed to stay Above the 50 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 11 below $126.69 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on
​a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $126.69.
​Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach
​the $123 handle pretty quick.

In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

​​Also, we are near a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 at $125.68. And ​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support.
And the ​Daily uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 as support...


​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.59, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.12​ to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.68, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.02 MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​



​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.82 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.92 to 0.87). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$126.02 support and $129.49 as resistance.

​​We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.68 for today.

We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.68 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.59 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.29 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.12 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.59 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.29 but above $125.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.68 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​02 max $123.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.60 - $126.40 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $125.30 and $124.02 and $123​.36 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $126.64 and $127.59

May 11 ​​Above the 50 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 7 near $125.39 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​A Daily close today above $125.52 will put more
​​conviction to the trade...​​Also Weekly Options Magnet will not be a factor
​today a smaller open interest compare to the usual activity will not make
​maket makers risk for so little to unhedge...

So we had that daily close above $125.52, closed above the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving AVerage ) then respectively at $127.58 and $ 126.74, a good technical sign indeed.

In my Weekly Research Yesterday I warned about Real Challenge for this week especially:
​​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri : Critical Week Ahead ?

​​So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $126.69. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $123 handle pretty quick.


​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.12, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.87​ to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.69, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $125.30 MAX $123.10

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 20.


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On May 8, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.58
2) On May 8, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.74
​​3) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​4) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
5) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​6) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​7) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
8) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
9) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​



​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.93 ( with stronger prices - a verygood mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.97 to 0.92). ​​Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 6 with ​$125.30 support and $128.87 as resistance.

​​We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.52 for today. Now the Becomes Major Support at $125.60.

We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.24 as support and $133.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.69 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.12 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.87 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.69 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.12 but above $126.69 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.69 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​30 max $123.10.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.70 - $128.10 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $127.10 and $126.69 and $125.30 Resistance :​​ $128.12 and $128.87 and $129.25

May 8 Rebound ?
​​​We did close on May 7 near $125.39 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday day I wrote: ​​​​​​​​We did trade as high as $126,75 and faded: BUT the
​most crucial Technical Fear happened On May 6:WE BROKE the ​​​Major
​Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30, the last
​line of Defense for Bulls.. It then Becomes Major Resistance at $ 125.39 for today....
The Risk for today is still trade down $122.60 MAX $121.63 and Squeeze back​​ up...

In all happened in pre-market. On the regular trading session, we did a higher lows on May 7 compare to May 6 and close very near my treshold then at $125.39 to turn Bullish - which I do.​​

A Daily close today above $125.52 will put mor conviction to the trade...

​​Also Weekly Options Magnet will not be a factor today a smaller open interest compare to the usual activity will not make maket makers risk for so little to unhedge...

​​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.74, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.59​ to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.02, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $123.10 MAX $122.60

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 8.


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​2) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
3) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​4) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​5) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
6)On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
7) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​
8)On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
9) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​10)On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
11)On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.80 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.96 to 0.97). ​​Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We closed on May 7 near a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.39.
​I​t becomes Major Support at $125.52 for today.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$118.58 support and $126.59 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.51 as support and $133.50 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.02 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.74 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.590 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.02 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.74 but above $124.02 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.02 will mean for me ​that we are back into a NASTY Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​10 max $122.60.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $126.70 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $125.52 and $124.58 and $124.02 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $126.74 and $127.59
May 7 Break Down ?

Yesterday day I wrote: ​​​​​​​Today expect a Dead Cat Bounce towards
​$126.96 MAX $127.68 and fade...

We did trade as high as $126,75 and faded: BUT the most crucial Technical Fear happened On May 6:
WE BROKE the ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30, the last line of Defense for Bulls.. It then Becomes Major Resistance at $ 125.39 for today....

Also on May 6, we broke the Weekly Support Trendline at $ 125.51...
​​
The Risk for today is still trade down $122.60 MAX $121.63 and Squeeze back​​ up...
IF ever we do close below $121.63, then expect another Nasty Gap Down to $120.25​

​​The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....


​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $125.39, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $126.40​ to MAX $126.81
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $122.60, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $121.63 MAX $120.25

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 9.


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On May 6, ​closed below a ​​​Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30
​​​2) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
3) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​4) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​5) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
6)On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
7) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​
8)On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
9) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​10)On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
11)On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.92 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.81 to 0.96). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on May 6 a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 then at $125.30. It becomes Major Resistance at $ 125.39 for today.

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$119.55 support and $127.51 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.51 as support and $133.50 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $122.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.39 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.39 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.450 ​​max $126.81 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $125.39 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $125.39 but above $122.50 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a NASTY Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​63 max $120.25.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $122.60 - $125.40 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $123.36 and $122.60 and $121.63 Resistance :​​ $124.58 and $125.39 and $126.40
May 6 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​We did close on May 5 below $127.87 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​ ​​Next big Support is the Support Trendline that started
​back on March 19 now at $127.92... ​IF we break that today, then false break
​out and back to MAX $125.11 in the next few trading sessions...
​Next Big Resistance is the multiple highs made near the $129.57 level ( February 20, March 3 and 4 and 6 and 9 ) that will be the next trigger for a potential Bull wave...
We failed to break it on the first attempt then a Consolidation within the range is expected for a few session as long as we stay withtin the levels below. So today s close can decide on the continuity of the Break Out ( close above $129.57 ) or a False Break Out ( close below $127.87 )​. SO FALSE BREAK OUT IT IS....

​​The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

Today expect a Dead Cat Bounce towards $126.96 MAX $127.68 and fade...
​​
​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.87, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.45​ to MAX $129.57
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.30, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.46, $123.10 MAX $121.63

That $125.30 is the last line of Defense for Bulls....

​​Seasonals are Bearish til May 9.


A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On May 5, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.69
2) On May 5, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.10
​3) On May 5, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​4) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
5) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
6) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​
7)On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
8) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​9)On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
10)On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37


​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was April 16... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.92 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.75 to 0.81). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 now at $125.30 and a Resistance Trendline that started on March 19 at the $127.87 level.

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on April 28 with ​$120.50 support and $128.45 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.51 as support and $133.50 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.45​ ​​max $129.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.87 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.87 but above $125.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a NASTY Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​46. $ 123.10 max $121.63.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.30 - $127.60 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $125.30 and $124.46 and $123.10 Resistance :​​ $126.96 and $127.68 and $128.45

May 5 Failed to Break The Strong Resistance Line ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 1 above $127.44 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​ ​​Next big Support is the Support Trendline that started
​back on March 19 now at $127.92... ​IF we break that today, then false break
​out and back to MAX $125.11 in the next few trading sessions...
​Next Big Resistance is the multiple highs made near the $129.57 level ( February 20, March 3 and 4 and 6 and 9 ) that will be the next trigger for a potential Bull wave...

We failed to break it on the first attempt then a Consolidation within the range is expected for a few session as long as we stay withtin the levels below.
​​​​​
​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.57, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.13​ to MAX $130.57
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.87, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.10 MAX $125.11

​So today s close can decide on the continuity of the Break Out ( close above $129.57 ) or a False Break Out
( close below $127.87 )​.

Seasonals are Bearish til May 9.


A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
2) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
3) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​
4)On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
5) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​6)On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
7)On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​8)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​9)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
10) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
11) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.01 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.75). ​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 now at $125.12 and another one that started on March 19 at the $127.87 level.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.51 as support and $133.50 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $127.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.57 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.57 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.13​ ​​max $130.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.87 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.57 but above $127.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.92 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​11 max $125.11.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on May 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.30 - $129.60 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $128.26 and $127.87 and $127.10 Resistance :​​ $129.57 and $130.13 and $130.57
​​ May 4 The Strong Resistance Line ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on May 1 above $127.44 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​I expect a tiny Dead Cat Bounce to $126.40
​MAX $127.11 and then consolidate...

​​The Dead Cat Bounce have been a lot more stronger and powerful than ​I thought...

But as explained on my Weekly Research, May Seasonals will kicks in: ​​
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - May Seasonals ?

​​Next big Support is the Support Trendline that started back on March 19 now at $127.92...
​IF we break that today, then false break out and back to MAX $125.11 in the next few trading sessions...
​Next Big Resistance is the multiple highs made near the $129.57 level ( February 20, March 3 and 4 and 6 and 9 ) that will be the next trigger for a potential Bull wave...
​​​​​
​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.57, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.13​ to MAX $130.90
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.92, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $127.11 MAX $125.11

​So today s close can decide on the continuity of the Break Out ( close above $129.57 ) or a False Break Out
( close below $127.92 )​.

​The Weekly May 8 129 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.53. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​
​​​1) On May 1, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.44
2) On May 1, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $127.11
3) on May 1, broke the resistance trendline then at $127.92​
4) On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
5) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​6) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
7)On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​8)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​9)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
10) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
11) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA

​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.21 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.80 to 0.80). ​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 now at $125.03 and another one that started on March 19 at the $127.92 level.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are witihn an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $125.51 as support and $133.50 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $127.92 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.57 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.57 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.13​ ​​max $130.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.92 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.57 but above $127.92 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.92 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​11 max $125.11.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on May 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.30 - $130.10 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $128.30 and $127.92 and $127.11 Resistance :​​ $129.57 and $130.13 and $130.90
May 1 Tiny Rebound ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 28 below $132.29 then triggering the Corrective Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote:
​​Position squarring on Apple and a weak SP500 continue to put pressure on
​Apple Shares and most of the Bulls act like deer into headlights. That tells
​me more pressure today...​​ Especially since WSJ posted after the market close potential defect on the iWatch - Obviously to me, someone is short AAPL and work for it...
​On the overnight session, we already broke the previous break out trendline now at $128.12.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​for today,I expect a tiny Dead Cat Bounce to $126.40 MAX $127.11 and then consolidate...

​​Next big Support is the Support Trendline that started back on March 12 now at $125.03...
​IF we break that today, then Timber to $121.63 in the next few trading sessions...

Next Big Resistance is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $127.11.​
​​​​​
​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.44, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.12 to MAX $128.88
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.03, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $124.46 MAX $123.10

​Weekly Options Magnet: the least pain for market makers is a daily close near or at the $125 handle.

​The Weekly May 1 130 Straddle closed last Friday at $7.15 and did close at $7.42 on April 30. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​


1) On April 30, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.40
2) On April 20, closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $127.15
​​3) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
4) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​5)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​6)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
7) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
8) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.09 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.63 to 0.80).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a Major Support Trendline that started back on March 12 now at $125.03.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.03 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.44 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.12 ​​max $128.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.44 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.44 but above $125.03 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.03 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​46 max $123.10.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.50 - $127.10 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $125.03 and $124.46 and $123.10 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $127.11 and $128.12

Apr 30 Month End ?
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 28 below $132.29 then triggering the Corrective Phase...​

As expected yesterday we did have the dead cat bounce at $ 131.60
​and faded abruptly...

​​Position squarring on Apple and a weak SP500 continue to put pressure on Apple Shares and most of the Bulls act like deer into headlights. That tells me more pressure today...​​ Especially since WSJ posted after the market close potential defect on the iWatch - Obviously to me, someone is short AAPL and work for it...

On top of that, we had a Bearish Engulfing Pattern 2 days ago, nothing to help here.
1) Bearish Day on a seasonality basis at month end
2) Position squarring for month end as Apple​​​​​ is up for this month +3.4% compare to the SP500 Index of +1.9%

​On the overnight session, we already broke the previous break out trendline now at $128.12.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $127.18... IF we break that today, then Timber to $124.91

​​​​
​​​​​​​IF we do close today above $129.25, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.04 to MAX $130.63
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $127.18, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.32 MAX $124.91

​The Weekly May 1 130 Straddle closed last Friday at $7.15 and did close at $2.46 on April 29. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed as expected to 2.07 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.70 to 0.63).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We brooke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $127.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.25 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.25 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.04 ​​max $130.63 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.25 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $129.25 but above $127.17 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​32 max $124.91.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.30 - $128.60 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $127.18 and $126.32 and $124.91 Resistance :​​ $128.12 and $129.25 and $130.04
Apr 29 Euphoria Phase Over ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 28 below $132.29 then triggering the Corrective Phase...​

Yesterday was a classic textbook of Buy the Rumor Sell the News.

On top of that, we had a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, nothing to help here.
Very tough call for today as two opposite factors are at play but I think a tiny dead cat bounce to MAX 131.60 and fade:
1) Last Bullish Day on a seasonality basis
2) Position squarring for month end as Apple​​​​​ is up for this month +4.9% compare to the SP500 Index of +2.3%

​​The Icahn Tweet yesterday was another desperate attempt for him to pump the price of Apple Shares:
it did not - quite interesting...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $127.16...

​​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into an Uptrend Trade Pattern til April 29...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $132.51, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $133.60 to MAX $134.54
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $129.46, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $128.44 MAX $127.16

​The Weekly May 1 130 Straddle closed last Friday at $7.15 and did close at $2.83 on April 28.I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed as expected to 2.23 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500; (from 0.84 to 0.70).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$129.46 support and $132.51 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $129.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $132.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $132.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $133.60 ​​max $134.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $132.51 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $132.51 but above $129.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​44 max $127.16.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.50 - $131.60 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $130.42 and $129.46 and $128.44 Resistance :​​ $131.60 and $132.51 and $133.13

Apr 28 Euphoria Phase ?
​​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: SO expect a lot of Volatility today with position
​squarring for the one who are overweight the stock and don t want the
​added risk for Earnings Release...
​​
As expected we had some positions squarring before ER. Also ER was very good in term of Financial Results.
Buyback also was good news but I was expecting better increase on the dividend hike...​​

So follow My Weekly Research for some guide in terms of price shifts today:​
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to AAPL Q2 ER ?

​​​SO the market according to the options is pricing a 5.5% move...​ Last Friday s close at $ 130.28:
so $123.13 and $137.43​. Don t forget, Volatility will collapse today...

Be careful here as SP500 did a Bullish Rejection Pattern​ yesterday ...
​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $127.09...

​​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into an Uptrend Trade Pattern til April 29...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $134.91, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $138.74 to MAX $136.54
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $132.29, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $131.15 MAX $129.23

​The Weekly May 1 130 Straddle closed last Friday at $7.15 and did close at $7.48 on April 27.I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.79 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.91 to 0.84).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 22 with ​$132.29 support and $134.91 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 27 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $132.29 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $134.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $134.91 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $135.74 ​​max $136.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $132.29 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $134.91 but above $132.29 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $132.29 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$131.​15 max $129.23.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $133.60 - $135.80 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $133.60 and $132.29 and $131.15 Resistance :​​ $134.91 and $135.74 and $136.54


Apr 27 D-Day ?
​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​So today is D-Day for Apple Shares as a lot of expectations are already
built into the market for Earnings Release Tonight.​
So follow My Weekly Research for some guide in terms of price shifts:​
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to AAPL Q2 ER ?


SO expect a lot of Volatility today with position squarring for the one who are overweight the stock and don t want the added risk for Earnings Release...

​​SO the market according to the options is pricing a 5.5% move...​ Last Friday s close at $ 130.28:
so $123.13 and $137.43​

​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.97...

​​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.22, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $132.28 to MAX $133.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.97, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: $126.40 MAX $124.63

​The Weekly May 1 130 Straddle closed last Friday at $7.15. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.79 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.82 to 0.91).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$128.14 support and $131.22 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.97 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.22 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.22 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.28 ​​max $133.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.97 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.22 but above $126.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.97 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​40 max $124.63.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $129.30 - $131.70 with above average volatility.


​​​​​​Support : $129.61 and $129.25 and $128.14 Resistance :​​ $131.22 and $131.70 and $132.28


Weekly Macro Levels​​​
​Support : $125.05 and $121.23 and $118.08 Resistance :​​ $133.04 and $133.60 and $136.41


Apr 24 Molotov Coktail ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​


​Yesterday I wrote: As we closed Yesterday above the $128.12 level,
​my consolidation scenario does not hold anymore - I ll follow the uptrend
​channel then with $127.29 support and $130.28 as resistance.
Todays updated level on that channel is ​$127.98 support ans $ 131.01 as resistance.

Today will be the Molotov Cocktail as we have the Break Out Impulse going on and the Weekly Options Magnet​​:
the least pain for market makers is a shy below the $127 handle.​​
SO expect a lot of Volatility today with the risk tilted on the downside...​

​​​​​​Still expect choppy markets and tough to trade.

Also take note that we closed on April 20 above the weekly resistance level of $126.78.​​

​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.86...

​​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $131.01, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $131.60 to MAX $132.70
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.86, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $125.17

​The Weekly April 24 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.63 and closed at $4.68 on April 23. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.77 to 0.82).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$127.98 support and $131.01 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.01 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.01 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.60 ​​max $132.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.86 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $131.01 but above $126.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​40 max $125.17.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.50 - $130.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.25 and $128.12 and $127.51 Resistance :​​ $130.42 and $131.01 and $131.60

Apr 23 The 50 DMA as Major Support ?
​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​


Yesterday I was quite surprise of the strenght of Apple Shares...
I thouhgt the same trading pattern as​ Failed Break Out Pattern that happened
​on April 6 and 7 on Apple Shares: but it was not...

And Yesterday, we had a rejection again from the Mighty SP500 Index Also:​
SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?

As we closed Yesterday above the $128.12 level, my consolidation scenario does not hold anymore - I ll follow the uptrend channel then with $127.29 support and $130.28 as resistance.

​​​​​​Still expect choppy markets and tough to trade.

Also take note that we closed on April 20 above the weekly resistance level of $126.78.​​

​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.71...

​​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $130.28, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $130.87 to MAX $131.60
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.71, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $125.89

​The Weekly April 24 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.63 and closed at $3.79 on April 22. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.55 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.66 to 0.77).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$127.29 support and $130.28 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.71 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.28 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.28 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.87 ​​max $131.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.71 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $130.28 but above $126.71 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.71 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​40 max $125.89.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.60 - $129.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.60 and $127.29 and $126.71 Resistance :​​ $128.87 and $129.25 and $130.28
Apr 22 Another Failed Break Out ?
​​​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​ Well, the dead cat bounce was a lot stronger than I
​thought ( getting as high as $128.12 - also the high price reached on April 7 )
​and make the case to compare of what happened on April 6 and 7...​
IF we do close below $127.18 today, then we have a false break out and will consolidate around the $126.70 zone for the remaining of the week...​​​

​​Well, That was the same Failed Break Out Pattern that happened on April 6 and 7 on Apple Shares.
What did not help is that the same day, we had a rejection from the Mighty SP500 Index Also:​
SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?

So in Consolidation around the 50 DMA now at the $126.53 Level we should have til ER ( Earnings Release ) on April 27.

​​​​Still expect choppy markets and tough to trade.

Also take note that we closed on April 20 above the weekly resistance level of $126.78.​​

​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.53 and becomes at risk again...

​Next big Resistance is another Resistance Trendline at $128.28.

​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.28, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.25 to MAX $129.57
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.53, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $125.36

​The Weekly April 24 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.63 and closed at $2.57 on April 21. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4)On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.50 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.69 to 0.66).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$126.67 support and $129.61 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.53 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.28 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.28 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.25 ​​max $129.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.53 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.28 but above $126.53 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.53 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​81 max $125.36.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.80 - $127.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.53 and $125.80 and $125.36 Resistance :​​ $127.13 and $128.28 and $129.25

Apr 21 Potential Break Out ?
​We did close on April 20 above $126.21 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote: ​​ I expect today a Dead Cat Bounce probably getting
​between the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $125.73 to MAX the
​50 DMA then at $126.21 as already mentioned in my Weekly Research.

Well, the dead cat bounce was a lot stronger than I thought ( getting as high as $128.12 - also the high price reached on April 7 ) and make the case to compare of what happened on April 6 and 7...​

So today IF we are able to stay above $127.18, then we have a Break Out from a Trendline that started back on March 19 and next big targets are $129.57 to $133.60.

IF we do close below $127.18 today, then we have a false break out and will consolidate around the $126.70 zone for the remaining of the week...​​​

​​Still expect choppy markets and tough to trade.

Also take note thta we closed on April 20 above the weekly resistance level of $126.78.​​

​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the Major Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.37.

​Next big Resistance is the high price on April 13 at $128.57.

​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.57, ​ then expect another Bullish Impulse: $129.25 to MAX $129.57
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.37, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $125.17

​The Weekly April 24 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.63 and closed at $3.27 on April 20. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 20, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.81
2) On April 20, closed ​above the 50 DMA then at $126.37
​​3) On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​4) On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
5) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
6) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA


​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.44 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.68 to 0.69).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with ​$125.92 support and $128.88 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 20 a downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on April 20 a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.57 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.57 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.25 ​​max $129.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.37 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $128.57 but above $126.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​81 max $125.17.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $128.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.18 and $126.37 and $125.81 Resistance :​​ $128.12 and $128.57 and $128.88

Apr 20 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​We did close on April 17 below $126.11 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Fridaty I wrote: ​​We are into a compression pĥase but next step will be
​to break down or to break out at those levels ( daily close) : $126.11 as the
​50 DMA ​trendline on one side or we ​need a Daily close above ​$127.38 for
​the Real ​Break Out as defined for now ​by the Resistance ​Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.​ SO ALL THAT to say next move will be quite violent.
AND IF we have a daily close below $ 126.11, a triple strike to me: Breaking the support trendline, the 20 and 50 DMA, a technical defeat indeed for Apple Shares if that happen...​​

I expect today a Dead Cat Bounce probably getting between the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $125.73 to MAX the 50 DMA then at $126.21 as already mentioned in my Weekly Research.

A lot of technical damage have been done: broke the 20 and 50 DMA, broke the uptrend channel that started on March 30 and broke a downtrend channel support also, all that happened on April 17...

​​Still expect choppy markets and tough to trade.

​​​​​​​​​​Next big Support is the Major Support Trendline now at $124.14.

​Next big Resistance is the 50 DMA at $126.21.

​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 23...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.21, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $126.58 to MAX $126.91
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.14, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $121.63

​The Weekly April 24 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.63. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 17, ​closed ​below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
​2) On April 17, ​closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.86
3) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
4) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​5) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​6) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38

​​​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.64 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.56 to 0.68).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 13 with ​$123.92 support and $126.09 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 17 an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$126.11 support and $129.97 as resistance.

​We broke on April 17 a downtrend channel that started on April 14 with ​$125.63 support and $127.01 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.46 as support and $126.74 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.14 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.21 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.58 ​​max $126.91 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.21 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.21 but above $124.14 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.14 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​10 max $121.63.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.70 - $126.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.46 and $124.14 and $123.10 Resistance :​​ $125.73 and $126.21 and $126.58

Apr 17 The Battle of the 50 DMA and Options Magnet ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 10 above $126.40 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​We are into a compression pĥase but next step will be to break down or
to break out at those levels ( daily close) : $126.11 as the 50 DMA
​trendline on one side or we ​need a Daily close above ​$127.38 for the Real
​Break Out as defined for now ​by the Resistance ​Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.​ SO ALL THAT to say next move will be quite violent.

Today will be the Batlle of the Price Chaser who bought near the 50 DMA for a rebound and the option magnet that tell me that the least pain for market makers are between the 125 and 126 handle..​​.

Also Take note that the 20 DMA crosssed below the 50 DMA ont he Price of Apple Shares AND ALSO on the Ratio compare to the SP500 - a bad technical set up...​​

AND IF we have a daily close below $ 126.11, a triple strike to me: Breaking the support trendline, the 20 and 50 DMA, a technical defeat indeed for Apple Shares if that happen...​​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $126.11.

​Next big Resistance is the New Resistance Trendline at $127.38.

​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 20...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$126.11 support and $129.97 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.38, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.57 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.11, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.87

​The Weekly April 17 127 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.82 and closed at $1.22 on April16. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA then at $125.86 on Apple Shares closed Below the 50 DMA then at $126.11
2) On April 16, ​the 20 DMA on the Ratio of Apple Shares Price compare to the SP500 closed Below the 50 DMA
​3) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​4) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​5)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​6) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​
​​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on April 16 closed below the 50 DMA: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.73 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.79 to 0.56).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$126.11 support and $129.97 as resistance.

​We are within a new down uptrend channel that started on April 14 with ​$125.63 support and $127.01 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.02 as support and $127.33 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.38 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.38 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.57 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.11 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.38 but above $126.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​66 max $123.87.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $127.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.11 and $125.63 and $124.66 Resistance :​​ $127.01 and $127.38 and $128.57
Apr 16 Watch 125.86 or 127.47 for Break ?
​​​
We did close on April 10 above $126.40 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​We are into a compression pĥase but next step will be to break down or
to break out at those levels ( daily close) : $125.86 as the channel support
​trendline on one side or we ​need a Daily close above ​$127.47 for the Real
​Break Out as defined for now ​by the Resistance ​Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.​

Also Take note that we are near that the 20 DMA crosssed below the 50 DMA - a bad technical set up...​​

AND IF we have a daily close below $ 125.86, a triple strike to me: Breaking the support trendline, the 20 and 50 DMA, a technical defeat indeed for Apple Shares if that happen...​​

Already IF we start to trade below $ 126.40, I ll start to be quite uncomfortable...​​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $125.96.

​Next big Resistance is the New Resistance Trendline at $127.47.

​​​And Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning into a slow bleed Trade Pattern til April 20...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.86 support and $129.67 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.47, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.57 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.86, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.87

​The Weekly April 17 127 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.82 and closed at $1.37 on April15. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.72 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within he ​​critical​ ​​​​level with the SP500;
​ (from 0.39 to 0.79).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.86 support and $129.67 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.02 as support and $127.33 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.47 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.47 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.57 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.86 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.47 but above $125.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​66 max $123.87.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.80 - $127.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.98 and $125.86 and $124.66 Resistance :​​ $127.13 and $127.47 and $128.57
Apr 15 Watch the 50 DMA closely ?
​We did close on April 10 above $126.40 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​Not much have changed for me...

We did test yesterday the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $125.92
and rebounded, a good technical sign indeed...​​​

Well we did an attempt to break out and failed on April 13, exactly the same ​pattern as on April 6. For today I need for that: we ​need a Daily close above ​$127.56 for the Real Break Out as defined for now ​by the Resistance ​Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.​

Already IF we start to trade below $ 126.40, I ll start to be quite uncomfortable...​​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $125.80.

​Next big Resistance is the New Resistance Trendline at $127.56.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.60 support and $129.47 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.56, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.57 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.80, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.87

​The Weekly April 17 127 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.82 and closed at $2.00 on April14. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.60 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.69 to 0.39).

​​Those risks factors are Bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.60 support and $129.47 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.02 as support and $127.33 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.56 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.57 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.80 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.56 but above $125.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.80 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​66 max $123.87.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.00 - $127.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.99 and $125.80 and $125.59 Resistance :​​ $127.29 and $127.56 and $125.57

Apr 14 False Break Out ?
​​​Yesterday I wrote:
​​​I was and Still I am Reluctant to chase it as the Weekly Research and
​the Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning on a slow bleed path this
​week. So prefer to buy dips than chasing...​​What strikes me here is that we
​need a Daily close above $127.79 for the Real Break Out as defined for now
​by the Resistance Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.

Well we did an attempt to break out and failed, exactly the same pattern as on April 6. For today I need for that:
​we ​need a Daily close above $127.65 for the Real Break Out as defined for now ​by the Resistance Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.

Already IF we start to trade below $ 126.40, I ll start to be quite uncomfortable...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 10 above $126.40 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $125.61.

​Next big Resistance is the New Resistance Trendline at $127.65.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.36 support and $129.18 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.65, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.57 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.61, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.76

​The Weekly April 17 127 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.82 and closed at $2.19 on April13. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.57 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.81 to 0.69).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.36 support and $129.18 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.02 as support and $127.33 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.61 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.65 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.65 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.57 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.61 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.65 but above $125.61 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.61 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​66 max $123.58.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.40 - $127.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.40 and $125.92 and $125.61 Resistance :​​ $127.65 and $128.57 and $129.25

Apr 13  Near Break Out ?
​​​Last Friday I wrote:
​​​We exceeded slightly yesterday my level to trigger a Bull move at $126.40​
BUT like I mentioned, today s Friday Weekly Options Magnet and was
​reluctant to do so; especially that the ​​least pain for market makers are
​between the 124 and 125 handle for this week...

So Instead of chasing it, you were able to buy it cheaper than last Thursday closing at $126.56 because it did trade as low as $125.26. I was and Still I am Reluctant to chase it as the Weekly Research and the Seasonalities on Apple Shares are turning on a slow bleed path this week. So prefer to buy dips than chasing...

​​What strikes me here is that we need a Daily close above $127.79 for the Real Break Out as defined for now by the Resistance Trendline that started on March 19. See 1rst Chart Below - Top Red Trendline.

​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 10 above $126.40 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $125.46.

​Next big Resistance is the New Resistance Trendline at $127.79.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.07 support and $128.94 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.79, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.94 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $125.46, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.58

​The Weekly April 17 127 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.82. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.68 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.79 to 0.81).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$125.07 support and $128.94 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $124.02 as support and $127.33 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $125.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.79 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.79 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.94 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.46 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.79 but above $125.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​66 max $123.58.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.80 - $127.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.40 and $125.76 and $125.07 Resistance :​​ $127.79 and $128.12 and $128.94

Apr 10 Friday: Option Magnet ?
​​
​​We exceeded slightly yesterday my level to trigger a Bull move at $126.40​
BUT like I mentioned, today s Friday Weekly Options Magnet and was
​reluctant to do so; especially that the ​​least pain for market makers are
​between the 124 and 125 handle for this week...

We have been testing the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) all week and unable to break them ( I mean close below ) - a good technical sign indeed...​​​ But still today... To buy it cheaper than yesterday...

​​What strikes me here is that we did not achieve the Real Break Out at the Weekly Resistance level of $127.70 because we failed to stay over it... But start to concern me is IF we break that weekly Support Trendline of a Rising Wedge at $ 123.50, then TIMBER... See 2nd chart below

​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 6 above $125.38 then triggering the Neutral Phase...​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $125.22.

​Next big Resistance is the New Channel Resistance at $128.05.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.77 support and $128.64 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.40, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.51 to MAX $128.05
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.77, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.58

​The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.91 and closed at $1.76 on April 9. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.56 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.80 to 0.79).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.77 support and $128.64 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.53 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $123.53 as support and $127.70 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.40 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.40 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.65 ​​max $128.37 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​between $124.77 and $126.40 to iAm in a Neutral Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.40 but above $124.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Neutral pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​22 max $123.58.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.63 and $125.22 and $124.77 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $126.58 and $127.51
Apr 9 Near Testing the 50 DMA ?
​​
Getting nearer of the ​Q2 ER will give a boost to the Volatility as explained in
​my Weekly Research.​​

​​Not much have changed for me since yesterday...
Except that we are near the Battle of the 50 DMA...​

What strikes me here is that we did not achieve the Real Break Out at the Weekly Resistance level of $127.70 because we failed to stay over it... But start to concern me is IF we break that weekly Support Trendline of a Rising Wedge at $ 123.50, then TIMBER... See 2nd chart below

​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 6 above $125.38 then triggering the Neutral Phase...​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $124.87.

​Next big Resistance is the New Channel Resistance at $127.65.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.48 support and $128.37 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.40, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.65 to MAX $128.37
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.87, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.50

​The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.91 and closed at $1.65 on April 8. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.39 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.88 to 0.80).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.48 support and $128.37 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.53 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $123.53 as support and $127.70 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.40 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.40 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.65 ​​max $128.37 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​between $124.87 and $126.40 to iAm in a Neutral Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.40 but above $124.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Neutral pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​22 max $123.50.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.90 - $126.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.41 and $124.87 and $123.50 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $127.65 and $128.37

Apr 8 False Break Out ?
​​​Getting nearer of the ​Q2 ER will give a boost to the Volatility as explained in
​my Weekly Research.​​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​On April 6, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance
​Trendline then at $126.42 from the peak on February 24 and March 19, then
​a Break Out... But for me the real Break Out is the weekly Trendline at $127.70 - See 2nd chart below.
​Awaiting a better risk reward technical set up for me...
AND: ​IF we do close today below $126.15, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $125.41

What strikes me here is that we did not achieve the Real Break Out at the Weekly Resistance level of $127.70 because we failed to stay over it... But start to concern me is IF we break that weekly Support Trendline of a Rising Wedge at $ 123.52, then TIMBER... See 2nd chart below

​​​​​​​​​We did close on April 6 above $125.38 then triggering the Neutral Phase...​

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA now at $124.62.

​Next big Resistance is the New Channel Resistance at $127.41.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.22 support and $128.12 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $126.49, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $127.41 to MAX $128.12
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.62, ​then expect another Bearish Impulse: MAX $123.52

​The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.91 and closed at $2.24 on April 7. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 7, failed to break out the weekly resistance trendline at $127.70
​2) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​3)On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​4) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​5) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​6) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
7) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.21 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.86 to 0.88).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$124.22 support and $128.12 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.53 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $123.53 as support and $127.70 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.49 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.49 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.41 ​​max $128.12 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​between $124.62 and $126.49 to iAm in a Neutral Mode...

​A daily close Below $126.49 but above $124.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Neutral pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​22 max $123.52.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on April 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $126.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.36 and $124.62 and $124.22 Resistance :​​ $126.49 and $127.41 and $128.12
Apr 7 Break Out for Real ?
​Getting nearer of the ​Q2 ER will give a boost to the Volatility as explained in
​my Weekly Research.​​

​​Well, yesterday was quite a revenge for Bulls; from pre-opening low to the
​peak level, more than 40 figures on E-Mini SP500 and 3 figures on Apple
​Shares. I rarely seen that and I am quite puzzled about it then turning in Neutral Stance for now...

​​​​​​​We did close on April 6 above $125.38 then triggering the Neutral Phase...​

​On April 6, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.42 from the peak on February 24 and March 19, then a Break Out... But for me the real Break Out is the weekly Trendline at $127.70 - See 2nd chart below. Awaiting a better risk reward technical set up for me...

I expect a tiny correction from ​​those levels, no more than $126.15 before resuming uptrend.
​​​And what puzzle me the most: DJ Transportand SP500: Major Divergence ?

​​​​​​​Next big Support is the Break Out Trendline now at $126.15 -

​Next big Resistance is the New Channel Resistance at $127.81.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 11...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$123.95 support and $127.81 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.81, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: $128.04 to MAX $129.25
​​​​​​​IF we do close today below $126.15, ​then expect another Bullish Impulse: MAX $125.41

​The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.91 and closed at $2.93 on April 6. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​

​1) On April 6, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $125.38
​​2) On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​3) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​4) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​5) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
6) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​

​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.14 ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.83 to 0.86).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 30 with ​$123.95 support and $127.81 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.53 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $123.53 as support and $127.70 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $126.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.81 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.81 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.04 ​​max $129.25 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​between $126.15 and $127.81 to iAm in a Neutral Mode...

​A daily close Below $127.81 but above $126.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Neutral pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​41 max $125.41.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $128.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.49 and $126.15 and $125.41 Resistance :​​ $127.81 and $128.04 and $129.25
​​
Apr 6 Still Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​Not much have changed for me since last Thursday. But getting nearer of the
​Q2 ER will give a boost to the Volatility as explained in my Weekly Research.​​

​​​​​​​We did close on April 1 below $124.70 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​
​​​
What I will follow: IF we close below the $ 124.53 level, support trendline from the uptrend Channel...
Also, have in mind that: ​DJ Transport: Near the Precipice ?

​​​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $124.06 -
​A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​

​Next big Resistance is the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $125.38.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 9...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.12 support and $126.50 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $125.38, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.



​The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle closed last Friday at $2.91. I ll follow that...


A few technical comments:​​​​


​​1) On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​2) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​3) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​4) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
5) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​6) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​7) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
8) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
9) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48


​​We need to keep a daily close below $125.38​ today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.10 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.93 to 0.83).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.53 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel ( and a wedge ) that started on the week of March 1 with $123.53 as support and $127.70 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.06 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.38 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.38 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.49 ​​max $126.78 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $125.38 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $125.38 but above $124.06 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.06 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​63 max $120.25.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.40 - $125.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.53 and $124.06 and $123.10 Resistance :​​ $125.38 and $126.49 and $126.78
Apr 2 Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​​​We did close on April 1 below $124.70 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​
​​​
​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $123.75 -
​A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​

​Next big Resistance is the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $125.43.

​​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures and Apple Shares are turning into a Range Trade Pattern til April 9...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.12 support and $126.50 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today above $125.43, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

What I have in mind :
If we close today above the 50 DMA at $123.75 - Range trade next week​
​​If we close today below the 50 DMA at $123.75 - puke down and a violent rebound next week

Options magnet will be the least painful for market makers between the 123 to 124 handle today.​

​The Weekly April 2 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.38 and closed at $2.30 on April1. I ll follow that...
Don t forget on a short week, premium will get trashed earlier than usual...​

A few technical comments:​​​​


​​1) On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​2) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​3) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​4) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
5) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​6) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​7) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
8) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
9) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48


​​We need to keep a daily close above $124.70 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.11 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.95 to 0.93).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$124.12 support and $126.50 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of March 1 with $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $123.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.43 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.43 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.49 ​​max $126.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $125.43 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $125.43 but above $123.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $123.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​63 max $120.25.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on April 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.10 - $125.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.75 and $123.10 and $122.60 Resistance :​​ $124.70 and $125.43 and $126.49

Apr 1 Back Into the Uptrend Channel ?
​​​​​​​We did close on March 26 above $123.80 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
​​​
Yesterday as expected, we had a corrective phase from the too upbeat
price action on March 30.​
​I will keep $124.70 as a must close above today to stay Bullish...​

​​​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $123.44 -
​A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​

​Next big Resistance is the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $125.65.


​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures are turning Bullish til April 2...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.80 support and $126.12 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.70, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.


​The Weekly April 2 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.38 and closed at $2.42 on March 31. I ll follow that...
Don t forget on a short week, premium will get trashed earlier than usual...​

A few technical comments:​​​​


​​1) On March 31, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $125.89
​2) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​3) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​4) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
5) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​6) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​7) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
8) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
9) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48


​​We need to keep a daily close above $124.70 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.04 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.87 to 0.95).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.80 support and $126.12 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of March 1 with $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.00 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.12 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.04 ​​max $128.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.70 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $126.12 but above $124.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​00 max $123.44.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 31 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.00 - $125.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.00 and $123.44 and $122.60 Resistance :​​ $124.88 and $125.65 and $126.12

Mar 31 Over the Uptrend Channel ?
​​​​​​​​We did close on March 26 above $123.80 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
​​​
Yesterday we did in a day what usually take 2 days when I wrote on March 30:
IF ​Apple Shares closed above today the Support ​Trendline then at $124.39
​from an Old Wedge that started on February 17, ​then we should have another
​Bullish Impulse to $126.03.
​We did closed at $ 126.37, exceeding my short term target and above the daily resistance from the uptrend channel then at $ 125.57... Expect some consolidation today towards $125.65 before resuming uptrend...​

​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $123.07 -
​A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​


​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures are turning Bullish til April 2...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.50 support and $125.85 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today below $124.70, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.


​The Weekly April 2 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.38 and closed at $1.98 on March 30. I ll follow that...
Don t forget on a short week, premium will get trashed earlier than usual...​

A few technical comments:​​​​


​1) On March 30, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $126.03
​​2) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​3) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
4) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​5) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​6) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
7) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
8) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48


​​We need to keep a daily close above $124.70 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.06 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.83 to 0.87).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.50 support and $125.85 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of March 1 with $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $124.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.82 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.82 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.04 ​​max $128.40 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.70 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $126.82 but above $124.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​07 max $123.07.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.20 - $126.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.65 and $125.16 and $124.07 Resistance :​​ $126.40 and $126.82 and $128.04
Mar 30 A New Uptrend Channel ?
​​​​​​​We did close on March 26 above $123.80 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
​​​
But on the other side, IF ​Apple Shares closed above today the Support
​Trendline then at $124.39 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17,
​then we should have another Bullish Impulse to $126.03.

​​Next big Support is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $122.67 -
​A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​


​​And Seasonalities on SP500 futures are turning Bullish til April 2...

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.23 support and $125.57 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​​IF we do close today below $122.67, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.


​The Weekly April 2 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.38. I ll follow that...
Don t forget on a short week, premium will get trashed earlier than usual...​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​2) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
3) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​4) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​5) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
6)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
7)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
8)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
9) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​10) On March 11,​ PVT broke the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse

​​We need to keep a daily close above $122.67 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.13 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.79 to 0.83).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with ​$123.23 support and $125.57 as resistance.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 24 with ​$119.75 support and $123.23 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of March 1 with $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $122.67 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.88 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.57 ​​max $126.03 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $122.67 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $124.88 but above $122.67 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.67 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$122.​67 max $121.63.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.80 - $124.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.80 and $123.23 and $122.67 Resistance :​​ $124.88 and $125.57 and $126.03

Mar 27 Counter Trend Trades ?
​​​
I wrote on March 26: IF we do close today above $123.80, ​then we turn into
​a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode. But be aware that the best technical sequence
​have not been completed for me... We should have tested the 50 DMA then
at $122.12 ( now at $122.40 ) and rebound for a stronger following...
Also SP500 futures is still in a bear trend...​

And take note that Weekly Options Magnet is a lot less Bearish than Usual as the least pain for market makers is between the 123 and 124 handle for today.​​
​​
​​​​​We did close on March 26 above $123.80 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
Next big Battle is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $122.40 - A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​ A Major Support Trendline have also been broken on SP500 futures...
But on the other side, IF ​Apple Shares closed above today the Support Trendline then at $124.67 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17, then we should have another Bullish Impulse to $125.65.

​​​​​​IF we do close today below $122.40, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.

Seasonals are turning bearish.

​The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.05 and on March 25 at $1.96. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​2) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
3) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​4) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​5) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
6)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
7)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
8)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
9) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​10) On March 11,​ PVT broke the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse

​​We need to keep a daily close above $122.40 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.97 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is back within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.61 to 0.79).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 24 with ​$120.92 support and $124.42 as resistance.

On March 25, we broke ​​a downtrend channel that started on March 19 with ​$123.95 support and $127.62 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 20 a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on March 25 an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $124.11 as support and $128.77 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​​Starting to trade below $122.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.67 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.67 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.88 ​​max $125.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $122.40 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $124.67 but above $122.40 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.40 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$121.​63 max $120.92.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.40 - $124.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.38 and $122.60 and $121.63 Resistance :​​ $124.67 and $124.88 and $125.65
Mar 26 Break down ?
​​I wrote on March 25: My focus will be on the old trendline coming from the
​old wedge that started back on February 25: Support level is at $125.28.​​​ and
​Resistance level is at $128.98.​​​ IF we ever close below that support level
​( now at $125.28 ), then I expect a gap down to the bottom of the Channel
​( now at $ 123.97 ).​ So Break Down on AAPL.

​​​​​We did close on March 19 below $127.66 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​
Next big Battle is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $122.12 - A daily close below will bring another nasty move to $121.63 MAX $120.25.​ A Major Support Trendline have also been broken on SP500 futures...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $123.80, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

Seasonals are turning bearish.

​The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.05 and on March 25 at $3.27. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17
​2) On March 25, Broke the Daily Downtrend Support Channel then at $123.95​
3) On March 25, Broke the Weekly Uptrend Channel then at $124.11​
​4) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​5) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
6)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
7)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
8)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
9) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​10) On March 11,​ PVT broke the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $123.80 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.97 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.20 to 0.61).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 24 with ​$122.12 support and $125.44 as resistance.

On March 25, we broke ​​a downtrend channel that started on March 19 with ​$123.95 support and $127.62 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 20 a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on March 25 an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $124.11 as support and $128.77 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​Starting to trade below $120.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $123.80 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $123.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $124.95 ​​max $125.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $123.80 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $123.80 but above $120.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $120.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$119.​25 max $118.31.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $120.50 - $123.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $122.12 and $121.63 and $120.25 Resistance :​​ $123.38 and $123.80 and $124.95
Mar 25 Follow the Channel ?
​​​Not much have changed for me since yesterday... But...
​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 19 with
​​$123.95 support and $127.62 as resistance.

​​​​​We did close on March 19 below $127.66 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.62, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

Seasonals are within a few days of turning - Just hope not having a Saloon s Door Experiment til then...​​

My focus will be on the old trendline coming from the old wedge that started back on February 25:
Support level is at $125.28.​​​ andResistance level is at $128.98.​​​
IF we ever close below that support level ( now at $125.28 ), then I expect a gap down to the bottom of the Channel ( now at $ 123.97 ).​

I expect SP500 Futures to turn bearish soon for this week as we have the Japanese Year End :​​
​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?

​The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.05 and on March 23 at $2.61. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​2) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
3)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
4)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
5)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
6) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​7) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​8) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
9) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
10) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​

​We need to keep a daily close below $127.62 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.96 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is not anymore within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.65 to 0.20).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 19 with ​$123.95 support and $127.62 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 20 a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $124.11 as support and $128.77 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.


​​Starting to trade below $125.16 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.62 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.62 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.40 ​​max $128.97 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.62 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $127.62 but above $125.16 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.16 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​24 max $123.81.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.30 - $127.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.52 and $125.16 and $123.97 Resistance :​​ $127.62 and $128.40 and $128.98

Mar 24  Seasonals ?

​​​On March 23 I wrote: Expect a Dead Cat Bounce from the Flash Crash​ to
​$126.73 to $127.22 Range as explained on the Weekly...
We did $127.85 as the daily s high and closed at $127.21, within the
expected range as history suggest...​​

​​​​​We did close on March 19 below $127.66 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.43, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

Seasonals are within a few days of turning - Just hope not having a Saloon s Door Experiment til then...​​

My focus will be on the old trendline coming from the old wedge that started back on February 25:
Resistance level is at $128.97.​​​

I expect SP500 Futures to turn bearish soon for this week as we have the Japanese Year End :​​
​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?

​The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.05 and on March 23 at $2.61. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​2) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
3)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
4)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
5)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
6) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​7) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​8) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
9) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
10) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​
​We need to keep a daily close below $127.43 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.97 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.68 to 0.65).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 19 with ​$123.71 support and $124.12 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 20 a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 18 on the upside an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$124.16 support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $124.11 as support and $128.77 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $125.16 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.43 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.43 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.40 ​​max $128.97 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.43 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $127.43 but above $125.16 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.16 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​24 max $123.81.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $127.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.52 and $125.56 and $125.16 Resistance :​​ $127.85 and $128.40 and $128.97


Mar 23  Dead Cat Bounce from Flash Crash ?

​​​​On March 20 I wrote: My Conviction is low on that market call - I did switch
​because I was price triggered and Weekly Options Magnet on Friday... And...
Well in the last 10 minutes, we did have a flash crash. IF it can happen
on one of the biggest capitalization stock in the world, just figure out
what can happen to others...​​​ Weekly Research: Apple Shares Behavior on Fridays ?

​​​​​We did close on March 19 below $127.66 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Expect a Dead Cat Bounce from the Flash Crash​ to $126.73 to $127.22 Range as explained on the Weekly...

​​​​​​IF we do close today above $127.43, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

My focus will be on the old trendline coming from the old wedge that started back on February 25:
Resistance level is at $128.93.​​​

I expect SP500 Futures to turn bearish soon for this week as we have the Japanese Year End :​​
​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?

​The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.05. I ll follow that...

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​2) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
3)On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
4)On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
5)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
6) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​7) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​8) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
9) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
10) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​
​We need to keep a daily close below $127.43 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.91 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish AFTER Dow Jones Effect at the opening on March 19 for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.92 to 0.68).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 19 with ​$124.24 support and $127.52 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 20 a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 18 on the upside an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$124.16 support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of March 9 with $124.11 as support and $128.77 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $125.16 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.43 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.43 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.40 ​​max $128.93 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.43 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $127.43 but above $125.16 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.16 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​24 max $123.81.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.80 - $127.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.81 and $125.16 and $124.24 Resistance :​​ $127.43 and $128.40 and $128.93
Mar 20 Low Convictions ?
​​​​​​We did close on March 19 below $127.66 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​
My Conviction is low on that market call - I did switch because I was
price triggered and Weekly Options Magnet on Friday... And...

The reason for that is that we close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​yesterday then at $127.66 but closed above the weekly support level at $127.48​​...

My call will become with more convictions IF we have a daily close below $127.61 today... Be cautious here.
​​
The Dow Jones Fever is over...

My focus will be on the old trendline coming from the old wedge that started back on February 25:
Resistance level is at $128.86 and will be my daily stop on that low conviction trade...​​​

​​​​​IF we do close today above $128.86, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.56 and $3.57 on March 19.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 19, closed ​below the 20 DMA then at $127.66
​2) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
3) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
4) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
5)Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
6) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​7) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​8) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
9) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
10) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​

​We need to keep a daily close below $128.86 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.80 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish AFTER Dow Jones Effect at the opening on March 19 for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.87 to 0.93).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on March 17 with ​$127.76 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 18 on the upside an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$124.16 support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 18 on the upside a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$122.59 support and $126.70 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on March 18 on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $119.59 as support and $127.48 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $127.61 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.25 ​​max $130.47 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $128.86 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $128.86 but above $127.61 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.61 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​16 max $125.65.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.20 - $128.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.61 and $126.16 and $125.65 Resistance :​​ $128.66 and $129.25 and $130.57
Mar 19​ Last Call for Dow Jones Fever ?

​​We did close on March 16 above $124.06 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

We can expect a bounce til March 19 from Apple getting into the
​Dow Jones Industrial... The DJ Fever will be over this morning after
15 to 30 minutes from the opening...​ Expect a pullback thereafter...

We did close above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48 and the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now then $127.67. Also, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26
​​​​​
​​​IF we do close today below $127.66, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.

​The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.56 and $4.57 on March 18.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) On March 18, closed ​above the 20 DMA then at $127.67
2) On March 18, ​closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26 ( So Break Out )
3) On March 18, ​closed above the weekly resistance channel then at $127.48
4) Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
5) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​5) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​7) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
8) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
9) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​


​We need to keep a daily close above $127.66 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.77 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bearish AFTER Dow Jones Effect at the opening on March 19 for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.79 to 0.87​).

​​Those risks factors are Bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on March 16 with ​$128.09 support and $130.80 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 18 on the upside an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$124.16 support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 18 on the upside a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$122.59 support and $126.70 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on March 18 on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $119.59 as support and $127.48 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $127.66 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.82 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.82 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.57 ​​max $130.87 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.66 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $128.82 but above $127.66 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.66 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​59 max $125.65.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.60 - $129.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.66 and $126.59 and $125.65 Resistance :​​ $128.82 and $129.57 and $130.87

Mar  18  The iCloud for today: FOMC ?

​​​
​​​We did close on March 16 above $124.06 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

We can expect a bounce til March 19 from Apple getting into the
​Dow Jones Industrial... The DJ Fever continue...

But do not be mislead here, it won t be a direct path but a choppy trading pattern. especially that we have the FOMC meeting today: The Fed will Likely Remove 'Patient' from its Statement, But Not from its Actions.

We are challenging the weekly resistance channel now at $127.48. Next big challenge for the Bulls is to break the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $127.67.
​​​​​
​​​IF we do close today below $125.65, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.

​The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.56 and $3.59 on March 17.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) Broke on March 17 ​an uptrend channel resistance at $126.78
2) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​3) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​4) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
5) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
6) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​7) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
8) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
9) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
10) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​11) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
12) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:


​We need to keep a daily close above $125.65 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.67 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.78 to 0.79​).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are now within an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$124.16 support and $127.40 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$122.59 support and $126.70 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $119.59 as support and $127.48 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $125.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.67 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.67 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.82 ​​max $129.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.65 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $127.67 but above $125.40 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​16 max $123.80.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.70 - $128.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.70 and $125.65 and $124.16 Resistance :​​ $127.67 and $128.82 and $129.57


Mar 17  Dow Jones Fever ?

​​​​​​​We did close on March 16 above $124.06 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

We can expect a bounce til March 19 from Apple getting into the
​Dow Jones Industrial... The DJ Fever...

But do not be mislead here, it won t be a direct path but a choppy trading pattern.​​
I will put my stop quite tight though on that one...​

​​​​​
​​​IF we do close today below $123.48, ​then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.

​The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle closed last Friday at $3.56 and $2.71 on March 16.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​2) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​3) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
4) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
5) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​6) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
7) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
8) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
9) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​10) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
11) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:


​We need to keep a daily close above $123.48 today to stay bullish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.65 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.85 to 0.78​).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on March 12 with ​$123.48 support and $126.78 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$122.74 support and $127.05 as resistance.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $119.59 as support and $127.48 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $122.74 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $125.40 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $125.40 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $126.78 ​​max $127.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $123.48 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $125.40 but above $122.74 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $123.48 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$122.​74 max $121.63.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.50 - $125.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.05 and $123.48 and $122.74 Resistance :​​ $124.95 and $125.40 and $126.78
Mar 16 Volatility Ahead ?

​​​
​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Last Friday we did reach quite near the trigger level at $124.06 to turn to a
bull stance but not enough yet...​ ​

We can expect a bounce til March 19 from Apple getting into the Dow Jones Industrial...

​​​​​
​​​IF we do close today above $124.06, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $3.56.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​2) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​3) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
4) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
5) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​6) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
7) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
8) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
9) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​10) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
11) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:


​We need to keep a daily close below $124.06 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.90 to 0.85​).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$118.53 support and $123.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 11 a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support and $128.17 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $119.59 as support and $127.48 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $121.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.06 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.06 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.40 ​​max $126.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.06 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $124.06 but above $121.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $121.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​25 max $119.35.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.10 - $125.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.10 and $121.63 and $120.25 Resistance :​​ $124.44 and $124.97 and $125.40
Mar 13 Friday the 13th ?

​​​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

Yesterday we did reach quite near the trigger level at $124.66 to turn to a
bull stance but not enough yet...​ ​

Today is Friday the 13th but mainly the weekly option madness at play...​​

​​​​​
​​​IF we do close today above $124.06, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $4.38 and $4.67 on March 12.

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​2) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​3) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
4) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
5) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​6) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
7) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
8) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
9) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​10) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
11) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:


​We need to keep a daily close below $124.06 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is Bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.90 to 0.85​).

​​Those risks factors are Neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$119.35 support and $124.06 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 11 a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support and $128.17 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.58 as support and $129.57 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $121.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.06 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.06 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.57 ​​max $126.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.06 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $124.06 but above $121.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $121.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​25 max $119.35.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $123.80 - $125.5 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.80 and $123.33 and $122.11 Resistance :​​ $124.90 and $125.57 and $126.74
Mar 12 Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​


We may have a dead cat bounce today to $123.67 MAX $123.80
​​
​​​But be aware that the SP500 ​Futures is in a Bear Mode and that will add to the Volatility of Apple Shares...​

​We are at crossroad here... Near the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 118.93.

​​​IF we do close today above $124.66, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $4.38 and $6.70 on March 11. I will follow that one this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) Broke on March 11 a ​downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support
​​2) On March 11,​ PVT broek the support trendline and confirming the weakness - see 5th chart below - ellipse
​3) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
4) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
5) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​6) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
7) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
8) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
9) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​10) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
11) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:


​We need to keep a daily close below $124.66 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.88 to 0.90​).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$119.91 support and $124.66 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on March 11 a downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support and $128.17 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.58 as support and $129.57 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $122.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $124.66 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $124.66 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $125.57 ​​max $127.98 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $124.66 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $124.66 but above $122.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $122.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​25 max $119.91.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $122.10 - $123.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $122.11 and $120.25 and $119.91 Resistance :​​ $123.67 and $124.66 and $125.57

Mar 11  Back to Normal ?

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

I wrote on March 10: I rarely do that but here, the risk reward is not there...​
I feel quite nervous and will postpone by another day or two being long APPL
​Shares as we are near the cliff on SP500 futures: if we broke ​​2064 then we re
​shifting from Bear to Nasty Bear on SP500 futures...

We may have a dead cat bounce today to $125.15 MAX $126.26
​​
​​​But be aware that the SP500 ​Futures is in a Bear Mode and that will add to the Volatility of Apple Shares...​

​We are at crossroad here... Closed again below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 127.97.

​​​IF we do close today above $126.26, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $4.38 and $4.71 on March 10. I will follow that one this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
2) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
3) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​4) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
5) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
6) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
7) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​8) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
9) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​10) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $126.26 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.68 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now within ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.73 to 0.88​).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$123.96 support and $128.17 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$120.51 support and $125.15 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.58 as support and $129.57 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $123.96 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.26 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.26 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.22 ​​max $128.17 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.26 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $126.26 but above $123.96 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $123.96 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​40 max $122.50.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.00 - $126.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $123.96 and $123.40 and $122.50 Resistance :​​ $125.15 and $126.26 and $127.22


Mar 10  Near the Danger Zone ?

​​​​
​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

I wrote on March 9: We are almost sure of a Reversal Stance in Apple Shares
​as iWatch Fever will catch in today. ​​​IF we do close today above $126.76,
​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​ But be aware that the SP500
​Futures is in a Bear Mode and that will add to the Volatility of Apple Shares...​

I rarely do that but here, the risk reward is not there...​
I feel quite nervous and will postpone by another day or two being long APPL Shares as we are near the cliff on SP500 futures: if we broke ​​2064 then we re shifting from Bear to Nasty Bear on SP500 futures...

We are at crossroad here... Closed again below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 127.73.
​​​IF we do close today above $126.61, ​then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.

​For those who are willing to take taht risk today ( I m not ), stop is $125.57
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $4.38 and $3.18 on March 9. I will follow that one this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
2) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
3) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​4) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
5) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
6) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
7) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​8) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
9) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​10) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $126.61 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.79 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.70 to 0.73​).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$124.26 support and $128.54 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$121.28 support and $126.03 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.36 as support and $126.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $124.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.61 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.61 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $127.32 ​​max $128.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.61 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $126.61 but above $124.26 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​40 max $122.07.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.00 - $127.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.26 and $125.57 and $125.06 Resistance :​​ $127.32 and $128.54 and $129.57

Mar 9  iWatch Fever ?

​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

I wrote on March 5: It will bring the next big move for Apple Shares when we
​will break one side...​ Compression Time within the wedge have been long
​( Since Feb 25 ); then we will finally break out, expect a violent move...​

We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25 ​​(Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below) and crashed. We also closed below the 20 DMA then at $126.64, not a good technical sign indeed...

We are almost sure of a Reversal Stance in Apple Shares as iWatch Fever will catch in today.
​​​IF we do close today above $126.76, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​
But be aware that the SP500 Futures is in a Bear Mode and that will add to the Volatility of Apple Shares...​


​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $4.38.
I will follow that one this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
2) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
3) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​4) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
5) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
6) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
7) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​8) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
9) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​10) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $126.76 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.96 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.54 to 0.70).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$124.56 support and $128.75 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$122.07 support and $126.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.36 as support and $126.94 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $124.56 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $126.76 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $126.76 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.48 ​​max $129.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $126.76 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $126.76 but above $124.56 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.56 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​40 max $122.07.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $128.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.32 and $126.26 and $125.57 Resistance :​​ $128.48 and $129.37 and $129.56

Mar 6

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

I wrote on March 5: It will bring the next big move for Apple Shares when we
​will break one side...​ Compression Time within the wedge have been long
​( Since Feb 25 ); then we will finally break out, expect a violent move...​

We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25 ​​(Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below) and crashed. We also closed below the 20 DMA then at $126.64, not a good technical sign indeed...

​​Expect a tiny dead cat bounce to $126.99 MAX $127.50 today before resuming downtrend...

​​​IF we do close today above $127.50, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

​​The Weekly March 6 129 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.67, $2.78 on March 5 and
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $5.75, $4.86 on March 5
I will follow those this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On March 5, We broke that Wedge support trendline at $128.40 that started on February 25
2) ​On March 5, We broke the 20 DMA then at $126.64
3) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​4) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
5) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
6) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
7) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​8) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
9) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​10) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $127.50 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, we closed on March 5 below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​.: Last time was December 4 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.05 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.50 to 0.54).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 26 with ​$124.85 support and $129.06 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$122.78 support and $127.50 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.17 as support and $130.28 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $125.57 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.50 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.45 ​​max $129.06 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $127.50 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $127.50 but above $125.57 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.57 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$124.​85 max $122.78.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.50 - $127.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $125.57 and $125.85 and $122.78 Resistance :​​ $126.99 and $127.50 and $128.45
Mar 5  Still Follow the Wedge ?

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

We have a Wedge that started on February 25 with $128.40 as ​support
​and $129.39 as resistance.​ ( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

It will bring the next big move for Apple Shares when we will break one side...​ Compression Time within the wedge have been long ( Since Feb 25 ); then we will finally break out, expect a violent move...​

​IF we do close today above $129.37, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

​​​IF we do close today above $129.37, then we turn into a Gap Up Mode...
​IF we do close today below $128.40, then we turn into a Gap Down Mode...

​​The Weekly March 6 129 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.67, $2.02 on March 4 and
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $5.75, $4.58 on March 4
I will follow those this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​7) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $129.37 today to stay bearish.
​​
​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.97 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.17 to 0.50).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$123.55 support and $128.23 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.17 as support and $130.28 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

We have a Brand New Wedge that started on February 25 with $ 128.35 as support and $129.66 as resistance.​
​​​( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

​​Starting to trade below $128.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.37 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.37 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.87 ​​max $132.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.37 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $129.37 but above $128.40 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.40 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​61 max $125.57.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.50 - $129.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.40 and $127.45 and $126.61 Resistance :​​ $129.37 and $130.28 and $130.87

Mar 4  Follow the Wedge ?

​​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

We have a Wedge that started on February 25 with $ 128.35 as
​support and $129.66 as resistance.​( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

It will bring the next big move for Apple Shares when we will break one side...​

​IF we do close today above $129.66, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

​​​IF we do close today above $129.66, then we turn into a Gap Up Mode...
​IF we do close today below $128.35, then we turn into a Gap Down Mode...

​​The Weekly March 6 129 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.67, $2.80 on March 3 and
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $5.75, $4.75 on March 3
I will follow those this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​7) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $129.66 today to stay bearish.
​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.01 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.52 to 0.13).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$124.29 support and $129.01 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.17 as support and $130.28 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

We have a Brand New Wedge that started on February 25 with $ 128.35 as support and $129.66 as resistance.​
​​​( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

​​Starting to trade below $128.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.66 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.66 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.87 ​​max $132.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.66 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $129.66 but above $128.35 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​61 max $125.57.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on March 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.30 - $130.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.35 and $127.45 and $126.61 Resistance :​​ $129.66 and $130.28 and $130.87
​​
Mar 3 Another Wedge ?

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

We have a Brand New Wedge that started on February 25 with $ 128.30 as
​support and $129.97 as resistance.​( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

It will bring the next big move for Apple Shares when we will break one side...​

​IF we do close today above $129.74, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

​​​IF we do close today above $129.97, then we turn into a Gap Up Mode...
​IF we do close today below $128.30, then we turn into a Gap Down Mode...

​​The Weekly March 6 129 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.67, $2.90 on March 2 and
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle (Including the March 9 Event) closed last Friday at $5.75, $5.11 on March 2
I will follow those this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​7) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $129.74 today to stay bearish.
​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.17 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.52 to 0.13).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$125.04 support and $129.74 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of February 23 with $123.17 as support and $130.28 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

We have a Brand New Wedge that started on February 25 with $ 128.30 as support and $129.97 as resistance.​
​​​( Red TrendLines on the 1st chart below )

​​Starting to trade below $128.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.74 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.87 ​​max $132.22 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $129.74 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $129.74 but above $128.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​61 max $125.57.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on March 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.20 - $130.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.30 and $127.45 and $126.61 Resistance :​​ $129.74 and $129.97 and $130.87

Mar 2  Month End Volatility Over ?

​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at
​$129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a good technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.52
The fact that we close below the wedge line is getting us back to a Nasty Bear Mode from a Bear Mode...

We did had the Month end Asset Mix Rebalancing and Weekly Options Magnet that bring some pressure...
Expect a rebound today to $129.52 MAX $130.57 before resuming downtrend...

​​​IF we do close today above $130.57, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

​​The Weekly March 6 129 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.67 and
​The Weekly March 13 129 Straddle ( So Including the March 9 Event ) closed last Friday at $5.75
I will follow those this week...​​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​7) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $130.57 today to stay bearish.
The next big resistance zone is at $130.57 to 130.87 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.20 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.55 to 0.52).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$125.88 support and $130.57 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $132.44 as support and $143.64 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.52 ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​
​​Starting to trade below $128.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.57 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.57 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.87 ​​max $131.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $130.57 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $130.57 but above $128.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​61 max $125.57.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.20 - $130.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.15 and $127.45 and $126.61 Resistance :​​ $129.52 and $130.57 and $130.87

Feb 27 Month End Volatility ?

​​​​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at
​$129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a good technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.44
The fact that we close above the wedge line is getting us back to a Bear Mode from a Nasty Bear Mode...

Month end Asset Mix Rebalancing, the iWatch News Fever and Weekly Options Magnet will bring today a Perfect Storm in Terms of Price Volatility...
​Also, ​​take note that Apple now accounts for 10% of Nasdaq’s index value.
​​
As of February 26, AAPL Monthly performance is +11.75% and SP500 Index is up +5.80%.
I Still expect some profit taking getting near end of the month...​​

​​​IF we do close today above $131.33, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​

A few technical comments:​​​​

1) ​On February 26, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.38 from a Wedge that started on February 17
​​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
​​7) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $131.33 today to stay bearish.
The next big resistance zone is at $131.33 to 131.98 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.06 ( with strongerer prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​is now out of ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.62 to 0.55).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$126.61 support and $131.33 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $128.05 as support and $138.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.44 ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​
​​Starting to trade below $128.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.33 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.33 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.98 ​​max $133.00 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $131.33 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $131.33 but above $128.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​61 max $125.57.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.00 - $131.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.44 and $128.15 and $126.61 Resistance :​​ $130.87 and $131.33 and $131.98


Feb 26 Tiny Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at
​$129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a bad technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.38

A tiny Dead Cat Bounce is expected today to $129.38 MAX $130.65 before resuming downtrend...
​​
As of February 25, AAPL Monthly performance is +10.36% and SP500 Index is up +5.96%.
I Still expect some profit taking getting near end of the month...​​

​​​IF we do close today above $131.33, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Nasty Bear Mode.​

A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support
2) ​On February 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $129.30 from a Wedge that started on February 17
3) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
4) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​5) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
6) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
7) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​8) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close below $131.33 today to stay bearish.
The next big resistance zone is at $131.33 to 132.06 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.03 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.85 to 0.62).
​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on February 23 with ​$127.33 support and $132.06 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 25 an uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $128.05 as support and $138.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.38 ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​
​​Starting to trade below $128.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.33 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.33 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $132.06 ​​max $133.00 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $131.33 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $131.33 but above $128.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​92 max $125.57.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.30 - $130.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.15 and $127.33 and $126.92 Resistance :​​ $129.38 and $130.65 and $131.33
​​
Feb 25  Reversal + End of the Month ?

​​​​​​We did close on February 24 below $132.42 then triggering the Bearish Phase...​

On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at
​$129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a good technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.30

As of February 24, AAPL Monthly performance is +13.26% and SP500 Index is up +6.04%.
So I expect some profit taking getting near end of the month...​​

​​​IF we do close today above $133.60, then we turn into a Bull Mode from a Bear Mode.​
IF ever we close below the old break out level of the wedge (now at $129.30), then I shift to a nasty bear trend.​


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On February 24, we reached the weekly Resistance Trendline at $133.30 and failed to close above.​
See 2nd Chart Below - Ellipse.​
2) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​3) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
4) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
5) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​6) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse



​We need to keep a daily close below $133.60 today to stay bearish.
The next big resistance zone is at $133.00 to 133.60 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.92 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.82 to 0.85).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.63 support and $133.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $128.05 as support and $138.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.30 ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​
​​Starting to trade below $130.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $133.60 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $133.60 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $134.67 ​​max $135.32 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $133.60 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $133.60 but above $130.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Nasty Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$128.​05 max $125.57.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $131.20 - $133.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $131.17 and $130.63 and $129.66 Resistance :​​ $133.09 and $133.60 and $134.67

​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
​APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

​​​

Feb 24  The Day After Break Out ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at
​$129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a good technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.23


​​​IF we do close today below $132.42, then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.​


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​2) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
3) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
4) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​5) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse



​We need to keep a daily close above $132.42 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $133.00 to 133.92 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.84 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.94 to 0.82).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$130.00 support and $132.42 as resistance.

We broke on February 18 an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $128.73 support and $131.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $128.05 as support and $138.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.23 ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​

​​Starting to trade below $132.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $134.94 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $134.94 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $135.39 ​​max $135.95 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $132.42 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $134.94 but above $132.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $132.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$130.​00 max $129.23.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $132.40 - $133.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $132.42 and $130.00 and $129.15 Resistance :​​ $133.92 and $134.48 and $134.94

​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
​APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator


Feb 23 Break Out ?

​​​​
​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at
​$129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17, ​a good technical sign
​indeed. ( Top Red TrendLine on the chart below - ellipse ) - Now at $129.15
​Closing price was ​$129.49. Weekly Research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - Uncharted Territory ?

​​​IF we do close today below $129.15, then we turn into a Bear Mode from a Bull Mode.​


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 20, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $129.10 from a Wedge that started on February 17.
​2) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
3) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
4) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​5) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse



​We need to keep a daily close above $129.15 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $130.43 to 131.01 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.76 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.92 to 0.94).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$129.15 support and $131.65 as resistance.

We broke on February 18 an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $128.73 support and $131.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $128.05 as support and $138.78 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on February 17 from a Wedge, Now at $129.15. ( Top Red TrendLine on the first chart below - ellipse )
​​

​​Starting to trade below $129.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $131.65 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $131.65 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.94 ​​max $132.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $129.15 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $131.65 but above $129.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $129.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a Bear phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​45 max $125.57.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $128.10 - $130.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $129.15 and $128.05 and $126.92 Resistance :​​ $130.43 and $131.01 and $131.65

​NEW Premium Service Member Pages :
​APPLE Technicals - Relative Monthly Daily Seasonalities Levels vs SP500 Index
​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

​​​
Feb 20  Rising Wedge and Shooting Star ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On February 19, we had a Rising Wedge and Shooting Star.

​​​​​Next Big Move will be driven by which side we do break on the Wedge on
​a daily close: ​$128.48 as support and $129.10 as resistance

​​
​​​IF we do close today below $128.48, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $125.57, then we turn into a Bear Mode and then $124.92 MAX $122.50...


A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
3) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​4) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse



​We need to keep a daily close above $128.48 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $129.03 to 129.85 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.64 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.96 to 0.92).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$128.48 support and $130.95 as resistance.

We broke on February 18 an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $128.73 support and $131.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $123.18 as support and $134.11 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $121.29 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.86 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $128.48 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.96 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.95 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $131.968​​max $132.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $128.48 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $130.95 but above $128.48 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $128.48 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$127.​45 max $125.57.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.40 - $129.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $128.48 and $127.45 and $126.92 Resistance :​​ $129.10 and $129.85 and $130.76


Feb 19  Still: Follow the New Uptrend Channel ?

​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with
​$127.80 support and $130.27 as resistance.


​​​IF we do close today below $127.80, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $125.57, then we turn into a Bear Mode and then $124.92 MAX $122.50...


A few technical comments:​​​​
​1) On February 17 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then ​creating a Breakaway gap:
3) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​4) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse



​We need to keep a daily close above $127.80 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $128.88 to 130.27 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.63 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.95 to 0.96).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$127.80 support and $130.27 as resistance.

We broke on February 18 an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $128.73 support and $131.76 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $123.18 as support and $134.11 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $121.38 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.79 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $127.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $130.27 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $130.27 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.94 ​​max $131.76 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.80 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $130.27 but above $127.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.80 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$126.​92 max $125.57.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.50 - $129.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.80 and $126.92 and $125.57 Resistance :​​ $128.88 and $130.27 and $130.94
​​​​​​
Feb 18​  Follow the New Uptrend Channel ?

​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with
​$127.03 support and $129.60 as resistance.


​​​IF we do close today below $127.03, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $125.57, then we turn into a Bear Mode and then $124.92 MAX $122.50...


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then
​creating a Breakaway gap:
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​3) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
4) On February 10 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $127.03 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $128.88 to 129.60 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.69 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.92 to 0.95).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 12 with ​$127.03 support and $129.60 as resistance.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $128.73 support and $131.76 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $123.18 as support and $134.11 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $121.11 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.54 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $127.03 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.60 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.60 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.94 ​​max $131.76 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $127.03 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $129.60 but above $127.03 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $127.03 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​65 max $124.77.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $127.00 - $129.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $127.48 and $127.03 and $125.65 Resistance :​​ $128.88 and $129.60 and $130.94

Feb 17  Follow the Uptrend Channel ?

​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​


​​​​We are Still within an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with
​$126.98 support and $130.27 as resistance.


​​​IF we do close today below $126.98, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $124.33, then we turn into a Bear Mode and then $122.15 MAX $120.25...


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then
​creating a Breakaway gap:
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​3) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
4) On February 10 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $125.36 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $126.26 to 127.48 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.76 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.86 to 0.92).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $126.98 support and $130.27 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $123.18 as support and $134.11 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $121.03 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.35 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $126.98 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $129.20 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $129.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $130.27 ​​max $131.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $126.98 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $129.20 but above $126.98 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $126.98 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$125.​65 max $124.33.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $126.50 - $128.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.98 and $125.65 and $124.33 Resistance :​​ $127.48 and $129.20 and $130.27
​​
Feb 13 Friday the 13th and the Options Magnet ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​As mentioned in my Weekly Research 2 weeks ago ( Relatively Speaking ? )
on average from the past 5 years, Apple Shares have outperformed from ​the
​beginning of February til mid-February the Mighty SP500 by 4.7% in
​performance ( capital excluding dividends ). We are at +3.7% as of February 12....

Usually Friday s Price Action ain t good on Apple as Options Magnet Occur...​​

​​​IF we do close today below $125.36, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $122.50, then we turn into a Nasty Bear Mode and then $122.15 MAX $120.25...

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then
​creating a Breakaway gap:
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​3) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
4) On February 10 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $125.36 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $126.26 to 127.48 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.70 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.72 to 0.86).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 9 with $125.36 support and $128.41 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on February 11 an uptrend channel that started on February 2 with $119.44 support and $122.86 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 10 an uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.61 support and $121.34 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $114.16 as support and $125.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.76 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.21 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $125.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $128.41 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $128.41 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $129.20 ​​max $130.27 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $125.36 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $128.41 but above $125.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $125.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​85 max $122.50.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $125.40 - $127.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $126.26 and $125.36 and $123.85 Resistance :​​ $127.48 and $128.41 and $129.20

Feb 12  Breakaway Gap ?

​​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at
​$120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on
​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then
​creating a Breakaway gap: a very good technical sign indeed. ​( Top Ellipse on the chart below ) - Closing price was $124.88.

​​​IF we do close today below $124.88, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $122.50, then we turn into a Nasty Bear Mode and then $119.44 MAX $117.89...

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline at $120.25 from a Congestion Zone ​( so Break Out ) with a high price on ​February 11 of $122.15. On February 12, Apple Shares low was $122.50 then
​creating a Breakaway gap:
2) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​3) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
4) On February 10 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $124.88 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $126.44 to 127.39 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.54 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore with the SP500;
​ (from 0.67 to 0.72).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $116.67 support and $125.69 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on February 11 an uptrend channel that started on February 2 with $119.44 support and $122.86 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 10 an uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.61 support and $121.34 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $114.16 as support and $125.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.73 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $109.04 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $124.88 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $127.39 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $127.39 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $128.16 ​​max $128.92 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $124.88 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $127.39 but above $124.88 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $124.88 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$123.​35 max $122.50.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $124.80 - $126.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $124.88 and $123.35 and $122.50 Resistance :​​ $125.69 and $126.44 and $127.39

Feb 11  Break Out from the Congestion Zone ?

​​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

Yesterday I wrote:
​​It looks like Apple Shares are Consolidating in Time more than in Price.
We have a new Congestion Zone with $118.31 as support and $120.25
​as resistance​ - See 1st chart below - Red Trendlines.
The next big move will come from which side we will break first...
The Broken wedge becomes secondary factor...​​​

On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out )that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25, a very good technical sign indeed.
​​​IF we do close today below $120.51, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $120.25, then we turn into a Nasty Bear Mode and then $119.44 MAX $117.89...

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 10, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline from a Congestion Zone ( so Break Out ) that started on February 4 then at ​$120.25
​​2) On February 10,​ PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
3) On February 10 ​, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse
4) ​On February 6, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline from a Wedge that started on January 29 then at $ 119.12,
5) On February 5, ​the 20 DMA on Apple Shares then at $113.00 close above the 50 DMA then at $112.74
6) On February 4, we did broke on the upside a Wedge Resistance then at $ 119.16
7) ​​On February 4, we did test the weekly resistance channel then at $119.84
8) ​On February 4, we did test a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 then at $119.75

​We need to keep a daily close above $120.51 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $122.86 to 123.69 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore with the SP500;
​ (from 0.84 to 0.67).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on February 2 with $119.44 support and $122.86 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 10 an uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.61 support and $121.34 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $114.16 as support and $125.09 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Support Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.51 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on February 5 at $120.25 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.88 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $120.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $122.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $122.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $123.69 ​​max $124.65 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $120.51 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $122.86 but above $120.51 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $120.51 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$120.​25 max $119.44.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $120.50 - $122.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $121.51 and $120.25 and $119.44 Resistance :​​ $122.86 and $123.69 and $124.65

Feb 10 Congestion Zone ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

It looks like Apple Shares are Consolidating in Time more than in Price.
We have a new Congestion Zone with $118.31 as support and $120.25
​as resistance​ - See 1st chart below - Red Trendlines.
The next big move will come from which side we will break first...
The Broken wedge becomes secondary factor...​​​

​​IF we do close today above $120.25, then we just confirm the actual Bull Mode.
​​IF we do close today above $120.51, then we should have a more Bullish Impulse and Stronger Technicals.​
IF we do close today below $118.31, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $117.37, then we turn into a Nasty Bear Mode and then will close the gap open at ER ( Earnings Release on January 28 ) below $115.31...

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 6, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline from a Wedge that started on January 29 then at $ 119.12,
2) On February 5, ​the 20 DMA on Apple Shares then at $113.00 close above the 50 DMA then at $112.74
3) On February 4, we did broke on the upside a Wedge Resistance then at $ 119.16
4) ​​On February 4, we did test the weekly resistance channel then at $119.84
5) ​On February 4, we did test a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 then at $119.75
6) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
7) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​8) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​9) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
10) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse

​We need to keep a daily close above $118.31 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $120.00 to 120.51 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.49 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.82 to 0.84).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.61 support and $121.34 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $114.16 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.25 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $108.26 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.53 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $118.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.69 ​​max $122.41 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.31 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.51 but above $118.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​61 max $117.37.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $119.10 - $120.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $119.10 and $118.31 and $117.61 Resistance :​​ $120.25 and $120.51 and $121.34

Feb 9 Broken Wedge: Last Call for Bulls ?

​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On February 4, we did close above the Daily Wedge Resistance that started ​
​on January 29 then at $119.16. Then it became support and today s stand
​at the $119.12 level. Ideally, technically speaking, we should not close
​below for a real break out scenario; Unless it will tell me that technicals are weak.​​

​​On February 6, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline from a Wedge that started on January 29 then at $ 119.12, ​a bad technical sign indeed. Technicals are now on the weak side ( daily ). Last Call for Bulls:
IF we do close today below $118.31, then we turn into a Consolidation Mode from a Bull Mode.​
​IF we do close today below $117.37, then we turn into a Nasty Bear Mode and then will close the gap open at ER ( Earnings Release on January 28 ) below $115.31...


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On February 6, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline from a Wedge that started on January 29 then at $ 119.12,
2) On February 5, ​the 20 DMA on Apple Shares then at $113.00 close above the 50 DMA then at $112.74
3) On February 4, we did broke on the upside a Wedge Resistance then at $ 119.16
4) ​​On February 4, we did test the weekly resistance channel then at $119.84
5) ​On February 4, we did test a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 then at $119.75
6) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
7) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​8) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​9) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
10) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $118.31 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $120.00 to 120.51 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.66 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.80 to 0.82).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.37 support and $121.09 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 19 with $114.16 as support and $125.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.25 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $108.26 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.53 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $118.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.69 ​​max $122.41 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.31 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.51 but above $118.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​61 max $117.37.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.40 - $119.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.31 and $117.37 and $116.08 Resistance :​​ $119.11 and $120.25 and $121.09
​​
Feb 6  A Painful Grind ?

​​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

​Not Much Have changed for me since yesterday: We failed to make a new
​high and it is still a painful grind for Bulls. Just Hope not to encounter
any Air pockets on the way...​

On February 4, we did close above the Daily Wedge Resistance that started ​on January 29 then at $119.16. Then it became support and today s stand at the $119.12 level. Ideally, technically speaking, we should not close below for a real break out scenario; Unless it will tell me that technicals are weak.​​


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On February 5, ​the 20 DMA on Apple Shares then at $113.00 close above the 50 DMA then at $112.74
2) On February 4, we did broke on the upside a Wedge Resistance then at $ 119.16
3) ​​On February 4, we did test the weekly resistance channel then at $119.84
4) ​On February 4, we did test a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 then at $119.75
5) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
6) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​7) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​8) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
9) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $118.31 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $120.00 to 120.51 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.62 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase with the SP500;
​ (from 0.15 to 0.80).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.



​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $117.11 support and $120.80 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 12 with $109.11 as support and $119.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $120.07 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $108.51 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.36 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $118.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.69 ​​max $122.41 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.31 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.51 but above $118.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​61 max $117.11.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 5​ ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.30 - $120.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $119.12 and $118.31 and $117.11 Resistance :​​ $120.51 and $120.80 and $121.69

Feb 5  The Broken Wedge ?

​​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​


On February 4, we did close above the Daily Wedge Resistance that started
​on January 29 then at $119.16. Then it became support and today s stand
at the $119.14 level. Ideally, technically speaking, we should not close below
for a real break out scenario; Unless it will tell me that technicals are weak.​​


A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On February 4, we did broke on the upside a Wedge Resistance then at $ 119.16
2) ​​On February 4, we did test the weekly resistance channel then at $119.84
3) ​On February 4, we did test a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 then at $119.75
4) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
5) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​6) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​7) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
8) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse


​We need to keep a daily close above $118.31 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $120.00 to 120.51 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed above the 50 DMA on that ratio on February 4.: Last time was December 30 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.55 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase and now negatively correlated with the SP500; a very rare case (from -0.19 to 0.15).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.



​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $116.85 support and $120.51 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 12 with $109.11 as support and $119.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.93 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $108.72 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.19 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $118.31 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.51 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.69 ​​max $122.41 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $118.31 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.51 but above $118.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $118.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$117.​61 max $116.85.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on February 4​ ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.30 - $120.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $119.14 and $118.31 and $117.61 Resistance :​​ $120.51 and $121.69 and $122.41

Feb 4 The Wedge ?

​​​
​On my Back up internet this morning; Hope not losing it...

​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

We have a Daily Wedge that started on January 29 and create a huge
​compression zone ready to explode.​ $118.31 as support and $119.16 as resistance for today. I need a daily below/above respectively of those levels to trigger the next big move. If we close between, then still in compression and have to wait tomorrow...

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares

That tells me that it will take more time to break the high ever at $120.00 than expected...​​​​​​
​Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.75 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
2) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​3) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​4) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
5) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse

​We need to keep a daily close above $116.85 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $119.75 to 120.00 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.59 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase and now negatively correlated with the SP500; a very rare case (from -0.50 to -0.19).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $116.49 support and $120.25 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 12 with $109.11 as support and $120.00 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.75 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $108.99 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $108.01 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $116.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.04 ​​max $122.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.85 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.00 but above $116.85 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​56 max $114.68.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 3​ ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.60 - $119.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.61 and $116.85 and $116.34 Resistance :​​ $119.09 and $120.00 and $121.04
Feb 3  Real Challenge ?

​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​
As expected, we did have yesterday a dead cat bounce to $118.12
​MAX $119.19... Today s challenge is make a new high for bulls; over 120.00
​​
What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, already broke the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )...

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares

That tells me that it will take more time to break the high ever at $120.00 than expected...​​​​​​
​Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.75 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
2) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​3) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​4) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
5) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse

​We need to keep a daily close above $116.85 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $119.75 to 120.00 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase and now negatively correlated with the SP500; a very rare case (from -0.55 to -0.50).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 28 with $116.34 support and $119.86 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 12 with $109.11 as support and $120.00 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.75 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $109.27 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.74 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $116.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.04 ​​max $122.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.85 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.00 but above $116.85 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​56 max $114.68.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on February 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.10 - $120.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.12 and $116.85 and $116.34 Resistance :​​ $119.19 and $120.00 and $121.04

​​
Feb 2 Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, already broke the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )...

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares

That tells me that it will take more time to break the previous high ever at $119.75 than expected...​​​​​​
Expect a dead cat bounce today to $118.12 MAX $119.19...
​Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.51 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) On January 30, we did test the support trendline of the uptrend channel then at $116.86​
2) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​3) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​4) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
5) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse

​We need to keep a daily close above $116.85 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $119.51 to 120.00 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase and now negatively correlated with the SP500; a very rare case (from 0.32 to -0.55).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $118.12 support and $121.43 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 12 with $109.11 as support and $120.00 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.51 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $109.42 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.64 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $116.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $120.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.04 ​​max $122.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.85 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $120.00 but above $116.85 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​56 max $114.68.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $116.80 - $119.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.85 and $115.56 and $114.68 Resistance :​​ $118.12 and $119.19 and $120.00


Jan 30  Multi Tsunami After ER ?

​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, already broke the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )...

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares

That tells me that it will take more time to challenge the high ever at $119.75 than expected...​​​​​​

​Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.36 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.

A few technical comments:​​​​
1) ​On January 29, we challenged the Weekly resistance trendline then at $119.07
​2) ​On January 29, we challenged the Monthly resistance trendline then at $118.73
​3) ​On January 29, PVT made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 5th chart below - ellipse
4) ​On January 29, On a ratio basis compare to the SP500 made a new high ever and confirming the strenght - see 3rd chart below - ellipse

​We need to keep a daily close above $116.86 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $119.19 to 119.75 - the new Macro MUD zone​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.56 ( with stongerer prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase and now negatively correlated with the SP500; a very rare case (from 0.04 to -0.32).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $116.86 support and $120.31 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account a Major Resistance Trendline thet Started on June 10 2014 and now at $119.36 level for today - see 5th chart - top red trendline.
​​
Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $109.64 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.50 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $116.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.75 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.75 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.31 ​​max $122.29 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $116.86 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $119.75 but above $116.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $116.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​56 max $114.30.

Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.20 - $119.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.83 and $116.86 and $115.56 Resistance :​​ $119.19 and $119.75 and $120.31

Jan 29  Tsunami After ER ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, already broke the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )...

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares

That tells me that it will take more time to challenge the high ever at $119.75 than expected...​​​​​​

A few comments from ER Tsunami:​​​​
I wrote on January 27:
​3 Things I know for ER D-Day on Apple:
1) Expectations are very high​ as the 113 straddle Jan 30 closed at $6.80 on January 27
Closed at $3.22 on January 28​

​2) Apple CBOE Volatility​ ( closed at 39.97% - highest since April 2013 ) will be crushed tomorrow.
Expect volatility to be crushed...​
As expected the Volatility from January 27 to Janauary 28 tumble - from a close of 42.25% to 30.83%
And RV for the same date from 2.41 to 1.51

​We need to keep a daily close above $114.65 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $116.86 to 118.12 ​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.93 to 0.04).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $115.74 support and $118.93 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $109.90 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.31 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $114.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.86 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.12 ​​max $118.93 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.65 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $116.86 but above $114.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​70 max $112.80.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.10 - $118.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.74 and $114.65 and $113.70 Resistance :​​ $116.86 and $118.12 and $118.93


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Jan 28  After ER ?

​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

I wrote on January 27:
​3 Things I know for ER D-Day on Apple:
1) Expectations are very high​ as the 113 straddle Jan 30 closed at $6.80
Well at the pre-opening this morning AAPL Shares ​up $6.91 - So the Option market expectations was good...
2) My focus will be on Forward Guidance​
Forward guidance was great:​ OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE FROM APPLE Apple Reports Record First Quarter
We will have to follow the impact on foreign exchanges though...
​3) Apple CBOE Volatility​ ( closed at 39.97% - highest since April 2013 ) will be crushed tomorrow.
Expect volatility to be crushed...​
And looking again at The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to AAPL Q1 ER ?
In average, in Price
​From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -1.2%
​ From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +2.5%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +1.5%
In average, in Volatility
​From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be January 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -30.3%


​We need to keep a daily close above $114.65 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $117.20 and 119.75 ​​

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.45 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.90 to 0.93).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $114.13 support and $117.20 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $110.11 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.16 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $114.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.20 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.05 ​​max $118.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $114.65 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $117.20 but above $114.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $114.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a consolidation phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​70 max $112.80.

Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.60 - $118.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.69 and $114.65 and $113.70 Resistance :​​ $117.20 and $118.05 and $118.77

Jan 27  D-Day for Apple Shares ?

​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

3 Things I know for ER D-Day on Apple:
1) Expectations are very high​ as the 113 straddle Jan 30 closed at $6.80
2) My focus will be on Forward Guidance​
3) Apple CBOE Volatility​ ( closed at 39.97% - highest since April 2013 ) will be crushed tomorrow.

And on January 22, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 110.11 and the 50 DMA ​then at $112.07 and most importantly above from an old trendline that started back on November 28 then at $111.06 ( now at $110.36 which become Major Support ). For the perfect technical set up, we must not close below that level in the next few sessions.​ Its Apple ER ( Earnings Release ) fever...
​​
​We need to keep a daily close above the 50 DMA now at $112.29 today to stay bullish.
The next big resistance zone is at $114.77 - Already a triple top on a weekly chart - See 2nd Chart Below - Red Trendline - Ellipses....​​

​​​A few technical comments:
1) On January 23rd, ​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, closed above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio. (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).
​​2) Broke on January 22 a Major Resistance trendline at $111.06​ that started back since November 28 2014.
​​3) ​On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.11
​4) On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.07
​5) For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $111.67 as resistance.
6) We came back above the high of September 2 on the PVT - See 5th Chart Below​
7) We broke on Jan 21 ​Major Resistance Trendline of the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70
8) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $107.00 for today...

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.58 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.82 to 0.90).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $113.10 support and $116.18 as resistance.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $110.36 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $107.00 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $112.29 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.77 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.77 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.71 ​​max $114.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $112.29 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $114.77 but above $112.29 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $112.29 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​61 max $110.57.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.30 - $114.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.10 and $112.29 and $111.53 Resistance :​​ $114.36 and $114.77 and $115.75
MACRO LEVELS FOR D-DAY:​
​Support : $109.35 and $107.00 and $104.63 Resistance :​​ $119.75 and $122.94 and $124.91

Jan 26  Apple ER Fever Continue ?

​​
We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On January 21, Apple Shares finally broke a Major Resistance Trendline of
​the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70.
( See Red Trendline on the 1st chart below - Ellipse )

And on January 22, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 110.11 and the 50 DMA ​then at $112.07 and most importantly above from an old trendline that started back on November 28 then at $111.06 ( now at $110.57 which become Major Support ). For the perfect technical set up, we must not close below that level in the next few sessions.​ Its Apple ER ( Earnings Release ) fever...
​​
​We need to keep a daily close above the 50 DMA now at $112.23 today to stay bullish.

The next big resistance zone is at $114.77 - Already a triple top on a weekly chart - See 2nd Chart Below - Red Trendline....​​

​​​A few technical comments:
1) On January 23rd, ​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, closed above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio. (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).
​​2) Broke on January 22 a Major Resistance trendline at $111.06​ that started back since November 28 2014.
​​3) ​On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.11
​4) On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.07
​5) For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $111.67 as resistance.
6) We came back above the high of September 2 on the PVT - See 5th Chart Below​
7) We broke on Jan 21 ​Major Resistance Trendline of the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70
8) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $106.83 for today...

​​​​​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.15 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.75 to 0.82).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $111.61 support and $114.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $110.57 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $106.83 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $112.23 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.77 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.77 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.71 ​​max $114.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $112.23 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $114.77 but above $112.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $112.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​61 max $110.57.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.50 - $113.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.47 and $111.61 and $110.57 Resistance :​​ $113.75 and $114.77 and $115.75

​​Jan 23  Apple ER Fever ?

​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On January 21, Apple Shares finally broke a Major Resistance Trendline of
​the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70.
( See Red Trendline on the 1st chart below - Ellipse )

And on January 22, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 110.11 and the 50 DMA ​then at $112.07 and most importantly above from an old trendline that started back on November 28 then at $111.06 ( now at $110.80 which become Major Support ). For the perfect technical set up, we must not close below that level in the next few sessions.​Its Apple ER ( Earnings Release ) fever...
​​
​We need to keep a daily close above $110.80 today to stay bullish.

​​​A few technical comments:
​​1) Broke on January 22 a Major Resistance trendline at $111.06​ that started back since November 28 2014.
​​2) ​On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.11
​3) On January 22, Apple Shares broke on the upside the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.07
​4) For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $111.67 as resistance.
5) We broke on January 21 ​Major Resistance Trendline of the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70
6) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $106.65 for today...
​​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares. ​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.17 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.49 to 0.75).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $110.45 support and $113.71 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 22 the on the upside a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on November 28 at $110.80 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $106.65 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $110.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.80 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.71 ​​max $114.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.80 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $112.80 but above $110.80 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $110.80 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​08 max $108.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.60 - $112.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.14 and $110.80 and $110.08 Resistance :​​ $112.80 and $113.25 and $113.71
Jan 22  The Hidden Nugget ?


​​​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish Phase...​

On January 21, Apple Shares finally broke a Major Resistance Trendline of
​the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70. For the perfect
technical set up, we must not close below that level in the next few sessions.​
( See Red Trendline on the 1st chart below - Ellipse )

All the market is focused on the Next big resistance that are the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $ 110.11 and the 50 DMA ​at $ 112.07. But for me, the real level to watch comes from an old trendline that started back on November 28 now at $111.06. That may give the real Bullish Impulse everybody s looking for...
​​
​We need to keep a daily close above $108.70 today to stay bullish.

​​​A few technical comments:
1) We broke on January 21 ​Major Resistance Trendline of the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70
2) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $106.51 for today...
​3) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​4) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​5) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
6) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares. ​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.02 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.68 to 0.49).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 16 with $109.05 support and $111.56 as resistance.

​​We broke on January 21 a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $105.22 support and $109.15 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Resistance Trendline that started on November 28 at $111.06 for today. ​​Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $106.51 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $108.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.06 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.06 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.56 ​​max $112.07 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $108.70 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $111.06 but above $108.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $108.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​35 max $106.50.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.00 - $111.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.05 and $108.70 and $107.35 Resistance :​​ $110.11 and $111.06 and $111.56

Jan 21 Challenging the Wedge Resistance ?


​​​​​We did close on January 20 above $107.58 then triggering the Bullish
Phase...​ We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward... ​​​
​And very tough to trade...

On January 20, Apple Shares tested a Major Resistance Trendline of the Old
Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70 and closed right on it...
( See Red Trendline on the 1st chart below - Ellipse )
Need today a daily close above $108.70 to give us another Bullish Impulse:
Next big resistance are the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $ 110.22 and the 50 DMA ​at $ 112.06.
​​
That level for today not to break for long term investors is $106.30.
​​​​​​​​​Expect Volatility to prevail getting ​into Q1 2015 ER.
​We need to keep a daily close above $107.35 today to stay bullish.

​​​A few technical comments:
1) We tested on January 20 ​Major Resistance Trendline of the Old Wedge ​that started ​on January 8 then at $108.70
2) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $106.30 for today...
3) ​On January 15, broke the support trendline of that wedge at $108.70
4) On January 15, broke the weekly support trendline at $107.94​
​5) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​6) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​7) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
8) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.91 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.76 to 0.68).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $105.22 support and $109.15 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $102.43 as support and $111.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $106.30 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $107.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.22 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $108.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $110.22 ​​max $111.26 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $107.35 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $108.70 but above $107.35 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $107.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$106.​50 max $105.20.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.20 - $109.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.50 and $107.35 and $106.50 Resistance :​​ $109.58 and $110.22 and $111.26

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​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

Jan 20

​​We did close on January 12 below $111.44 then triggering the Consolidation
Phase...​ We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward... ​​​
​And very tough to trade...

On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started
​on October 15 then at $105.97 and failed to break it for now.
( See Red Trendline on the 1st chart below - Ellipse )
Expect a dead cat bounce to $107.58 MAX 108.70 before resuming downtrendfor now...​
​​
That level for today not to break for long term investors is $106.11.
​​​​​​​​​Expect Volatility to prevail getting ​into Q1 2015 ER.
​We need to keep a daily close below $107.58 today to stay bearish.

​​​A few technical comments:
1) We tested​ On January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97, at $106.11 for today...
2) ​On January 15, broke the support trendline of that wedge at $108.70
3) )n January 15, broke the weekly support trendline at $107.94​
​4) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​5) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​6) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
7) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​8) PVT broke on the downside on January 12 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 12 - We did close below ​$111.44 level then triggering the Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.00 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.82 to 0.76).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $105.79 support and $109.59 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support ( Broken on January 15 ) and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

Also, we have to take into account ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 at $106.11 for today.

​​Starting to trade below $105.79 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $107.58 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $107.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $108.70 ​​max $109.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $107.58 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $107.58 but above $105.79 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $105.79 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​20 max $104.63.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $106.10 - $107.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $106.11 and $105.79 and $105.20 Resistance :​​ $107.58 and $108.20 and $108.70

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​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
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Jan 16​​  My Broken Wedge ?

​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​We did close on January 12 below $111.44 then triggering the Consolidation
Phase...​ We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward... ​​​
​And very tough to trade...

On January 15 I wrote:
​We have a new wedge pattern created with the low in Price made on
​January 8 at $108.70 as support and the Major Resistance Trendline
on the other side at $111.98 for today. 1st chart below - red trendlines...
Breaking one side or the other of that wedge will give the next big Bull or Bear Impulse for Apple Shares...​​

We broke the support trendline of that wedge at $108.70 on January 15 triggering the nasty bear move...​
​​​​​​Expect Volatility to prevail getting ​intoQ1 2015 ER.

We need to keep a daily close below $108.70 today to stay bearish.


​​A few technical comments:
1) ​On January 15, broke the support trendline of that wedge at $108.70
2) )n January 15, broke the weekly support trendline at $107.94​
​3) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​4) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​5) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
6) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​7) PVT broke on the downside on January 12 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 12 - We did close below ​$111.44 level then triggering the Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.93 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.80 to 0.82).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $106.44 support and $110.28 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support ( Broken on January 15 ) and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $106.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $108.70 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $108.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $110.06 ​​max $110.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $108.70 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $108.70 but above $106.26 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $106.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​41 max $104.63.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.40 - $107.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $106.26 and $105.41 and $104.63 Resistance :​​ $107.35 and $107.80 and $108.70

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​APPLE Relative Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities
APPLE Technicals - Daily iTrendicator

Jan 15  The Wedge ?

​​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​We did close on January 12 below $111.44 then triggering the Consolidation
Phase...​ We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward... ​​​
​And very tough to trade...

We have a new wedge pattern created with the low in Price made on
​January 8 at $108.70 as support and the Major Resistance Trendline
on the other side at $111.98 for today.

Breaking one side or the other of that wedge will give the next big Bull or Bear Impulse for Apple Shares...​​

​​​​​​Expect Volatility to prevail getting ​intoQ1 2015 ER.

We need to keep a daily close below $110.84 today to stay bearish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the trendline that started on November 28 at $111.98. See 1st chart below...

​​A few technical comments:
​1) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​2) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​3) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) PVT broke on the downside on January 12 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 12 - We did close below ​$111.44 level then triggering the Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.93 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.85 to 0.80).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $107.80 support and $110.84 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are back within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.98 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.84 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.44 ​​max $111.98 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $110.84 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $110.84 but above $108.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​35 max $106.26.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.50 - $110.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.35 and $108.70 and $107.80 Resistance :​​ $110.58 and $111.44 and $111.98

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Jan 14  3rd Rejection of the Resistance Trendline ?

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Yesterday, we did have the dead cat bounce but stronger than I thought.
I was expecting MAX $111.44 and the high was $112.80.

But for me, the real story is that it is the 3rd time that The Major Resistance
​Trendline have been tested and rejected...​​​

​​We did close on January 12 below $111.44 then triggering the Consolidation
Phase...​ We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward... ​​​
​And very tough to trade...

​​​​​Now we need to break on a daily close the Major Resistance Trendline now ​at $112.21 on a daily close to give us the next Real Bullish Impulse...​ Expect Volatility to prevail getting ​intoQ1 2015 ER.

We need to keep a daily close below $111.44 today to stay bearish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the trendline that started on November 28 at $112.21. See 1st chart below...

​​A few technical comments:
​1) ​On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.48
​2) On January 13, Apple Shares broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.06
​3) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.45​ on January 13
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) PVT broke on the downside on January 12 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 12 - We did close below ​$111.44 level then triggering the Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.94 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.84 to 0.85).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $108.40 support and $111.44 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are back within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.21 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.21 ​​max $112.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $111.44 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $111.44 but above $108.40 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.40 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​35 max $106.26.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.30 - $111.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.35 and $108.40 and $107.35 Resistance :​​ $110.50 and $111.44 and $112.21

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​​​Jan 13 Dead Cat Bounce ?

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On Back Up Internet this morning: I hope not loosing it...

We did close on January 12 below $111.44 then triggereing the Consolidation
Phase...​ Expect a Dead Cat Bounce today to the 20 DMA at $110.48
MAX $111.44 before resuming downtrend...​ We may have some very choppy
​trading sessions going forward... ​​​And very tough to trade...

​​​​​Now we need to break on a daily close the Major Resistance Trendline now
​at $112.45 on a daily close to give us the next Bullish Impulse...​ Expect Volatility to prevail getting
​into Q1 2015 ER.

We need to keep a daily close below $111.44 today to stay bearish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the trendline that started on November 28 at $112.45. See 1st chart below...

​​A few technical comments:
​1) ​On January 12, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.60
​2) On January 12, Apple Shares tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $112.03
​3) Failed to break the Major Resistance trendline at $112.67​ on January 12
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) PVT broke on the downside on January 12 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 12 - We did close below ​$111.44 level then triggering the Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.08 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.84 to 0.83).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on January 9 with $108.98 support and $112.06 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are back within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.98 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.45 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.45 ​​max $113.92 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $111.44 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $111.44 but above $108.98 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.98 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​35 max $106.26.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.00 - $111.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.21 and $109.35 and $108.70 Resistance :​​ $111.44 and $112.06 and $112.45

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Jan 12  Major Resistance Trendline ?


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​Last Friday I wrote: we made an excess over the resistance on the uptrend
​channel: ​we may have ​a tiny consolidation today before resuming uptrend
​as long as ​we stay above $110.59 on a daily close...​ We did have that
​correction.

​​Now we need to break on a daily close the Major Resistance Trendline now
​at $112.67 on a daily close to give us the next Bullish Impulse...​
Expect Volatility to prevail getting into Q1 2015 ER.

On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support
then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

We need to keep a daily close above $111.44 today to stay bullish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the trendline that started on November 28 at $112.67.

​​A few technical comments:
​1) ​On January 8, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.59
​2) On January 8, Apple Shares tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.92
​3) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) PVT broke on the upside on January 8 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.04 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.95 to 0.84).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with $112.89 support and $115.79 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we are back within an uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $110.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.67 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.67 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.92 ​​max $114.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.44 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $112.67 but above $111.44 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.44 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​21 max $109.58.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.40 - $113.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.03 and $111.44 and $110.21 Resistance :​​ $112.67 and $113.25 and $113.92

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​​​

Jan 9 Tested the 50 DMA ?


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​Yesterday, we made an excess over the resistance on the uptrend channel:
​we may have ​a tiny consolidation today before resuming uptrend as long as
​we stay above $110.59 on a daily close...​

On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support
then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

We need to keep a daily close above $110.59 today to stay bullish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the trendline that started on November 28 at $112.91.

​​A few technical comments:
​1) ​On January 8, Apple Shares broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $110.59
​2) On January 8, Apple Shares tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.92
​3) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) PVT broke on the upside on January 8 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.06 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.97 to 0.95).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with $110.91 support and $113.70 as resistance.

​​We still take into account an old downtrend channel that started on December 29 with $106.93 support ( Broken on January 7 ) and $109.03 as resistance. The old wedge resistance is now at $112.28.

​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 5 a new uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $110.59 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.91 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.91 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.70 ​​max $114.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $110.59 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $112.91 but above $110.59 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $110.59 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​58 max $108.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.90 - $112.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.91 and $110.59 and $109.58 Resistance :​​ $112.35 and $112.91 and $113.70

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​​​

Jan 8  Bull Wave or Dead Cat Bounce ?


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Take note that this morning, it is -35F here: if I loose electricity, I will
not even try to start the generator....​

​​On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support
then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

We need to keep a daily close above $107.35 today to stay bullish.

​​​Next big resistance is now the old downtrend resistance channel at $109.03.
At this point, I am not sure if it is a long term reversal or a dead ca bounce...​

​​A few technical comments:
1) ​On January 5, Apple Shares 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.38 broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 111.71
2) On December 29 we had a Shooting Star on Apple.​
​3) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) Broke on December 31 the 20 DMA then at $112.38 and the 50 DMA then at $ 111.29
6) PVT broke on the downside on December 31 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On January 7 - We did close above the downtrend channel support then at ​$106.93 level then triggering the Bull Phase for Apple Shares.​​

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.97 to 0.97).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with $108.64 support and $111.50 as resistance.

​​We still take into account an old downtrend channel that started on December 29 with $106.93 support ( Broken on January 7 ) and $109.03 as resistance. The old wedge resistance is now at $112.28.

​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 5 a new uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.03 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.03 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $109.84 ​​max $110.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $107.35 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $109.03 but above $107.35 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$106.​69 max $105.41.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.80 - $109.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.20 and $107.35 and $106.69 Resistance :​​ $109.03 and $109.84 and $110.21

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Jan 7  Near Reversal ?


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On December 30 - We did close below the uptrend channel support
then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase.

We need to keep a daily close below $106.93 today to stay bearish.
We tested on Januay 6 a Major Support Trendline that started back in
​April 2014​: Today s level is $105.03: We must not close below that level
at all cost unless a mega bear trend will begin - see 5 th chart below​.

​​​Next big resistance is now January 6 high at $107.43.

​​A few technical comments:
1) ​On January 5, Apple Shares 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.38 broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 111.71
2) On December 29 we had a Shooting Star on Apple.​
​3) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) Broke on December 31 the 20 DMA then at $112.38 and the 50 DMA then at $ 111.29
6) PVT broke on the downside on December 31 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On December 30, We did close below the uptrend channel support then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase. ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bear trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $106.93 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.81 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.97 to 0.97).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on December 31 with $102.23 support and $106.27 as resistance.

​​We still take into account an old downtrend channel that started on December 29 with $106.93 support and $109.84 as resistance. The old wedge resistance is now at $112.24.

​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 5 a new uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below. New Support at $103.95 is the Cheap Zone.

​​Starting to trade below $104.63 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $106.93 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $106.93 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $108.65 ​​max $109.82 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $106.93 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $104.63 but above $106.93 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $104.63 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$103.​63 max $102.60.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on January 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $106.20 - $107.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $106.26 and $105.41 and $104.63 Resistance :​​ $107.43 and $108.65 and $109.82

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​​​​​​

Jan 6  Getting Near the Chaep Zone ?

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On December 30 - We did close below the uptrend channel support
then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase.

We need to keep a daily close below $107.90 today to stay bearish.
But be careful here as SP500 seasonalities and Earnings Release Fever
will soon catch up the market to resume the bull trend.

​​​Next big resistance is now the Channel Resistance Trendline at $107.90.

​​A few technical comments:
1) ​On January 5, Apple Shares 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $111.38 broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $ 111.71
2) On December 29 we had a Shooting Star on Apple.​
​3) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
4) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse)
and the level is back to levels last seen in October 2014​.
​​​5) Broke on December 31 the 20 DMA then at $112.38 and the 50 DMA then at $ 111.29
6) PVT broke on the downside on December 31 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On December 30, We did close below the uptrend channel support then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase. ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bear trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $107.90 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.90 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.97 to 0.98).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on December 31 with $103.89 support and $107.90 as resistance.

​​We broke on January 5 a downtrend channel that started on December 29 with $108.50 support and $111.44 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $112.17.

​​​​​​​​​For the weekly, we broke on January 5 a new uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $105.41 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $107.90 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $107.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $109.35 ​​max $110.21 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $107.90 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $105.41 but above $107.90 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $105.41 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$104.​70 max $103.89.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.40 - $107.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $105.41 and $104.70 and $103.89 Resistance :​​ $106.26 and $107.35 and $107.90
​​​​​

Jan 5 Careful getting to ER ?


​​​​​You can find new research and analysis on AAPL at TRADING APPLE
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

On December 30 - We did close below the uptrend channel support
then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase.

We need to keep a daily close below $110.21 today to stay bearish.
But be careful here as SP500 seasonalities and Earnings Release Fever
will soon catch up the market to resume the bull trend.

​​​Next big resistance is now the 50 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ at $111.64.
Only a Daily close above the old wedge trendline now at $112.17 will give another Bullish Impulse to $112.97 MAX $113.62 for now...​

​​A few technical comments:
1) On December 29 we had a Shooting Star on Apple.​
​2) Broke the old wedge support trendline at $112.10​ on December 31
3) ​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500, the 20 DMA crossed the 50 DMA - (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).
​​​4) Broke on December 31 the 20 DMA then at $112.38 and the 50 DMA then at $ 111.29
5) PVT broke on the downside on December 31 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On December 30, We did close below the uptrend channel support then at ​$112.68 level then triggering the Bear Phase. ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bear trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $110.21 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​On a ratio basis compare to the SP500​, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) crossed the 50 DMA on that ratio on December 30.: Last time was January 15 2014... (3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.92 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.93 to 0.97).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on December 29 with $108.50 support and $111.44 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $112.17 and becomes a major support.

​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $116.61.

​For the weekly, we are within a new uptrend channel that started on the week of December 15 with $107.94 as support and $115.67 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.21 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.44 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $110.21 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $108.50 but above $110.21 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.50 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​35 max $106.26.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on January 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.80 - $110.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.35 and $108.50 and $107.35 Resistance :​​ $110.21 and $111.44 and $111.84

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Dec 23  Christmas Rally til $111.87 hold ?


​​​Last Day of publication for the Daily: December 23rd.
​Resuming the daily and the intra-day on January the 5th.
Happy Holidays​

Illiquidity will be a concern til year end and can bring surprising move...​​

On December 17 - We did close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.88 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

​​​​​From the FOMC Rally last week , we re now shifting into the Grinding
Phase as long as we do close above the Wedge Support at $111.87​...

It is crucial thta we keep a daily close above that Wedge Support at $111.87 to prove we re still in a Bull mode ( Grinding til December 26 ), unless ​back into a Consolidation Mode...​​​

​​​​Next big resistance is now the 20 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ at $113.59.
Only a Daily close above that 20 DMA will give another Buiilish Impulse to $114.30 MAX $114.85 for now...​

​​A few technical comments:
​​​1) Almost tested on December 22 the 20 DMA then at $113.77 - next major resistance
2) Testing the old wedge support trendline at $111.87​ on December 19
3) Broke the uptrend channel resistance at $111.27 on December 18
4) ​​Broke the Weekly Resistance level at $ 111.60​ on December 18
5) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at $108.88​
6) PVT broke on the downside on December 19 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On December 17, we closed above the $108.88, then triggering the Bull phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $111.87 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.86 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.95 to 0.97).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new a uptrend channel that started on December 16 with $109.12 support and $114.30 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.87 and becomes a major support.

​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $115.68.

​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on December 18 a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $113.44 as support and $111.60 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.59 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.59 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.30 ​​max $114.85 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.87 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $113.59 but above $111.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​66 max $109.35.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.80 - $113.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.32 and $111.87 and $111.27 Resistance :​​ $113.59 and $114.30 and $114.85

​​Dec 22  Christmas Rally in Progress ?


​​​Take note that on December 22 and 23rd, only the daily will be published.
​Resuming the daily and the intra-day on January the 5th.

Illiquidity will be a concern til year end and can bring surprising move...​​

On December 17 - We did close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.88 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

​​​​​From the FOMC Rally last week , we re now shifting into the Grinding
Phase as long as we do close above the Wedge Support at $111.87​...

Friday s close below that level was options related - I ll give Today
to prove we re still in a Bull mode ( Grinding til December 26 ), unless
​back into a Consolidation Mode...​​​

​​​​Next big resistance is now the 20 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ at $113.77.

​​A few technical comments:
1) Testing the old wedge support trendline at $111.87​ on December 19
​​2) 20 DMA at $113.77 - next major resistance
3) Broke the uptrend channel resistance at $111.27 on December 18
4) ​​Broke the Weekly Resistance level at $ 111.60​ on December 18
5) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at $108.88​
6) PVT broke on the downside on December 19 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below

​​​​​On December 17, we closed above the $108.88, then triggering the Bull phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $111.87 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.73 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.96 to 0.95).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new a uptrend channel that started on December 16 with $108.46 support and $113.77 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 18 a new uptrend channel that started on December 16 with $107.40 support and $111.27 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.87 and becomes a major support.

​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $115.45.

​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on December 18 a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $113.44 as support and $111.60 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.77 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.77 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.85 ​​max $115.75 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.87 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Consolidation mode.

​A daily close Below $113.77 but above $111.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​66 max $109.35.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.30 - $113.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.87 and $111.27 and $110.66 Resistance :​​ $112.65 and $113.30 and $113.77

​​​Dec 19  From FOMC Christmas Rally to Euphoria ?


​​​​From FOMC Rally, we re now shifting into the Euphoria Phase...

​​​​On December 17 - We did close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.88 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

We broke on the upside the old wedge resistance on December 18 at $111.87
who now becomes the major support.​

Next big resistance is now the 20 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ at $114.00.



​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the old wedge resistance trendline at $111.87​ on December 18
2) Broke the uptrend channel resistance at $111.27 on December 18
3) ​​Broke the Weekly Resistance level at $ 111.60​ on December 18
4) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at $108.88​
5) PVT broke on the upside on December 18 the level of the previous break out end of October
​- see 5th chart below
​6) 20 DMA at $114.00 - next major resistance



​​
​​​​​On December 17, we closed above the $108.88, then triggering the Bull phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $111.87 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.68 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.98 to 0.95).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 17 a downtrend channel that started on December 10 with $104.14 support and $109.40 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 18 a new uptrend channel that started on December 16 with $107.40 support and $111.27 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.87 and becomes a major support.

​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $115.29.

​For the weekly, we broke on the upside on December 18 a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $113.44 as support and $111.60 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.00 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.00 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.85 ​​max $115.75 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $111.87 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $114.00 but above $111.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​66 max $109.33.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.80 - $114.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.65 and $111.87 and $111.27 Resistance :​​ $113.30 and $114.00 and $114.85

​​Dec 18  FOMC Christmas Rally ?



​​​​Yesterday I wrote: SO I need that impulse TODAY with a new low in place
​unless it will tell me that Apple Shares start consolidating...​...​​

FOMC quite dovish by tweeking their language...
​​
​​On December 17 - We did close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.88 level then triggering the Bull Phase.

That 50 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ is now at $109.10 and becomes a
major support level.​



​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at $108.88​
2) Wedge Resistance Trendline at $111.87
3) Weekly Resistance level at $ 111.60​
4) 20 DMA at $114.10​
5) PVT broke the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
6) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​


​​
​​​​​On December 17, we closed above the $108.88, then triggering the Bull phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $109.10 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.56 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.96 to 0.98).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 17 a downtrend channel that started on December 10 with $104.14 support and $109.40 as resistance.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 16 with $107.40 support and $111.27 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.87.

​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $115.14.

​For the weekly, we are within a downtrend channel that started on the week of December 1 with $113.44 as support and $111.60 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $109.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.87 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.75 ​​max $113.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​above $109.10 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back with the Bear mode.

​A daily close Below $111.87 but above $109.10 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $109.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​40 max $106.26.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.20 - $111.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.16 and $109.10 and $107.40 Resistance :​​ $111.27 and $111.87 and $112.75

Dec 17  Impulse Day Needed ?

​​​​​On December 15 - We did close below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.57 level then triggering the Bear Phase.

That 50 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ is now at $108.88 and becomes a
major resistance level.​

Usually, when breaking a 50 DMA technically speaking, we should see a quick
​downfall in the next few sessions...​​​ SO I need that impulse TODAY with a new
​low in place unless it will tell me that Apple Shares start consolidating...​...​​

FOMC meeting today can add to the already insane volatility this afternoon
especially IF they drop the considerable time period...​
​​​
​​Options Relative Volatility fell ​​to 1.51 ( below the 200 DMA at 1.78 ) ​and tells ​m​e RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares BUT WILL tumble after FOMC ; Dec 20 107 straddle closed at ​$3.08 ...

​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 50 DMA on December 15 then at $108.57​
2) Broke the Wedge Support Trendline on December ​12 then at $111.62
3) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
4) PVT broke the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
5) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
6) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
7) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking was done on Apple Shares.
8) Broke the Monthly support at ​$111.37
9) Broke the Weekly support at $110.73​


​​
​​​​​On December 15, we closed below the $108.57, then triggering the Bear phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bear trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $108.88 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.96 to 0.96).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on December 10 with $104.14 support and $109.40 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.74.
​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.98.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $106.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $108.88 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $108.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $109.40 ​​max $110.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay on a daily close ​below $108.88 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back with the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $108.88 but above $106.26 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $106.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​35 max $104.14.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.40 - $109.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $106.74 and $106.26 and $105.35 Resistance :​​ $107.80 and $108.88 and $109.40

Dec 16  My Broken 50 DMA ?


​​​On December 15 - We did close below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
then at ​$108.57 level then triggering the Bear Phase.

That 50 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ is now at $108.74 and becomes a
major resistance level.​

Usually, when breaking a 50 DMA technicaaly speaking, we should see
a quick downfall in the next few sessions...​​​

We can have a situation for Counter Trades were they sell Apple Shares
and buy the SP500 on weakness...
​​​
​​Options Relative Volatility rose ​​to 1.59 ( below the 200 DMA at 1.78 )
​and tells ​m​e RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares;
​Dec 20 108 straddle closed at ​$3.44 ...

​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 50 DMA on December 15 then at $108.57​
2) Broke the Wedge Support Trendline on December ​12 then at $111.62
3) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
4) PVT broke the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
5) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
6) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
7) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking was done on Apple Shares.
8) Broke the Monthly support at ​$111.37
9) Broke the Weekly support at $110.73​


​​
​​​​​On December 15, we closed below the $108.57, then triggering the Bear phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bear trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $108.74 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.59 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.93 to 0.96).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 4 with $106.35 support and $112.48 as resistance.

The old wedge resistance is now at $111.72.
​​​​​​​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.82.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $106.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $108.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $108.74 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $109.35​ ​​max $110.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​below $108.74 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back witihn the Bull mode.

​A daily close Below $111.62 but above $108.57 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $106.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​49 max $104.33.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $106.30 - $109.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $107.72 and $106.35 and $105.49 Resistance :​​ $108.74 and $109.35 and $110.59


​​​​Dec 15  Range Trade ?


On December 10 - We did close below the $113.30 level then triggering
the Consolidation Phase.

We did see last Friday a small capitulation wave. I think for now, we will
​Range Trade between the 50 DMA ( Day Moving ​Average )​ now at $108.57
​and the Wedge Resistance Trendline now at $111.62

​​​​​​​Breaking $111.62 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation phase
Breaking $108.57 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation​ phase

​​Options Relative Volatility rose ​​to 1.54 ( below the 200 DMA at 1.78 )
​and tells ​m​e RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares; Dec 12 110 straddle closed at
​$3.99 ...

​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the Wedge Support Trendline on December ​12 then at $111.62
2) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
3) PVT broke the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
4) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
5) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
6) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking was done on Apple Shares.
7) Broke the Monthly support at ​$111.37
8) Broke the Weekly support at $110.73​


​​
​​​​​On December 10, we closed below the $113.30, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close between $108.57 and $111.62 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.54 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.88 to 0.93).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a range trade with $108.57 support and $111.62 as resistance :
​​​​​Breaking $108.57 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation phase
Breaking $111.62 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation​ phase

​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.67.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.57 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $111.62 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $111.62 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.75​ ​​max $113.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​between $108.57 and $111.62 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless break out of the wedge..

​A daily close Below $111.62 but above $108.57 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.57 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​21 max $105.90.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $109.60 - $111.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.30 and $109.58 and $108.57 Resistance :​​ $111.27 and $111.62 and $112.75
​​​​

Dec 12 The Wedge at risk ?


​​​​​On December 10 - We did close below the $113.30 level then triggering
the Consolidation Phase.

Closing yesterday near the falling wedge support then at $111.57 after
testing the upper break out range is nothing but weak technicals​​​...

So breaking that support wedge (now at $111.62) will tell me that we will
go testing the 50 DMA now at $108.37...

Only a daily close above $111.62 today will cancel that scenario...​​​​​

We are within a falling wedge with $111.62 support and $113.64 as resistance : That wedge will dictate the next big move: see 1st chart below
​​​​​Breaking $111.62 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation phase then the 50 DMA
Breaking $113.64 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation​ phase

​​Options Relative Volatility fell ​​to 1.48 ( below the 200 DMA at 1.78 ) and tells ​m​e RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares; Dec 12 112 straddle closed at $ 1.37...

​​A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
2) PVT is weakening near the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
3) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
4) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
5) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking was done on Apple Shares.
6) Near Breaking the Monthly support at ​$111.37
7) Near breaking the weekly support at $110.73​

​​​​​On December 10, we closed below the $113.30, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close between $111.62 and $113.64 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.48 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.84 to 0.88).

​​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a falling wedge with $111.62 support and $113.64 as resistance : That wedge will dictate the next big move:
​​​​​Breaking $111.62 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation phase then the 50 DMA at $108.37
Breaking $113.64 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation​ phase

​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.51.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.64 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.64 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.85​ ​​max $115.20 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​between $111.62 and $113.64 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless break out of the wedge..

​A daily close Below $113.64 but above $111.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​35 max $108.37.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.30 - $111.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $110.30 and $109.35 and $108.37 Resistance :​​ $111.62 and $112.75 and $113.64

Dec 11  The Wedge ?


​​​​​Yesterday was the Saloon s door Experiment - We did close below the $113.30
level then triggering the Consolidation Phase.

We are within a falling wedge with $111.57 support and $114.20 as
resistance : That wedge will dictate the next big move: see 1st chart below
​​​​​Breaking $111.57 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation phase
Breaking $114.30 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation​ phase

​​
Options Relative Volatility fell ​​to 1.64 ( below the 200 DMA at 1.78 ) and tells
​m​e RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares;
​Dec 12 112 straddle closed at $ 2.10...

Also, Counter Trend Trades ( Buying Apple Shares and Selling SP500 ) is on for the next few sessions.​​

A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
2) PVT is weakening near the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
3) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
4) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
5) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking was done on Apple Shares.

​​​​​On December 10, we closed below the $113.30, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close between $111.57 and $114.20 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.64 ( with weaker prices - a bad good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are backinto ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.51 to 0.84).

​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.


​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We are within a falling wedge with $111.57 support and $114.20 as
resistance : That wedge will dictate the next big move:
​​​​​Breaking $111.57 will bring back the Bear case from consolidation phase
Breaking $114.30 will bring back the Bull case from consolidation​ phase

​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.51.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.57 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $114.20 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $114.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.85​ ​​max $115.20 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​between $111.57 and $114.20 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless break out of the wedge..

​A daily close Below $114.20 but above $111.57 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.57 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​30 max $109.35.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $111.60 - $112.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.57 and $110.30 and $109.35 Resistance :​​ $112.75 and $113.45 and $114.20


Dec 10  Coup de Jarnac ?


​​​​​Yesterday, we did close above the $113.80 then triggering the Bullish Scenario.

​​We had capitulation at the opening on December 9 and then a violent rally
that tells me the worst is behind us...

Next big challenge is to reclaim the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now
​a​t $115.08​​​ to keep the Bullish Momentum... A daily close above $114.35
today will put even more in the comfort zone....​

For that scenario to unfold, I need a daily close above $113.30 today.​

Options Relative Volatility fell ​​to 1.80 ( almost at the 200 DMA ) and tells me RV is still cheap to play that insane volatility in Apple Shares; Dec 12 114 straddle closed at $ 2.13...

Also, Counter Trend Trades ( Buying Apple Shares and Selling SP500 ) is on for the next few sessions.​​

A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
2) Broke ​The main trendline that started on June 10 2014 became a support trendline since November 13 and now stand at $113.88 - see 5th chart below
3) Broke the ​downtrend channel that started on December 3 with $114.39 as support.
4) Shooting StarPattern on December 4th.​
5) PVT is weakening near the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
6) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
7) We broke on December 4 the new uptrend channel that started on December 1st - $115.75 support ​​
8) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
9) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.

​​​​​On December 9th, we closed above the $113.80, then triggering the Bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $113.30 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.80 ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are outside into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.30 to 0.51).

​​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

​​We broke on December 9 a new downtrend channel that started on December 4 with $110.46 as support and $113.80 as resistance.

​​We have a resistance trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $114.35.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $113.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.08 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.08 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.75​ ​​max $116.08 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$113.30 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a Bear stance.

​A daily close Below $115.08 but above $113.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bull pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $113.30 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​62 max $111.27.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.30 - $115.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.80 and $113.30 and $112.75 Resistance :​​ $114.65 and $115.08 and $115.75

Dec 9  Major Tom to Ground Countrol ?


On December 8, we did have a daily close below the 20 DMA then at 114.65,
​triggering then the Bearish scenario...​ Houston we had a problem....

I did wrote about the risk for Apple Shares in my Weekly Research:
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Houston, We May Have a Problem Here ?

We did break the 20 DMA at $114.65 on a daily close on December 8, I do not
​see why we will not go testing the 50 DMA now at $107.62...
For that scenario to unfold, I need a daily close below $113.80 today.​

A few technical comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on December 8 then at $114.65​
2) Broke ​The main trendline that started on June 10 2014 became a support trendline since November 13 and now stand at $113.88 - see 5th chart below
3) Broke the ​downtrend channel that started on December 3 with $114.39 as support.
4) Shooting StarPattern on December 4th.​
5) PVT is weakening near the level of the previous break out end of October - see 5th chart below
6) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis and near testing the 50 DMA- see 3rd chart below​​
7) We broke on December 4 the new uptrend channel that started on December 1st - $115.75 support ​​
8) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
9) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.

​​​​​On December 4th, we closed below the $114.65, then triggering the Bearish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bearishtrend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $113.80 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.93 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are outside into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.20 to 0.30).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 4 a new uptrend channel that started on December 1 with $115.75 as support and $118.74 as resistance.
​​We broke on December 8 a new downtrend channel that started on December 3 with $114.39 as support and $116.72 as resistance.

​​We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 4 with $110.46 as support and $113.80 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 8 a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.88.

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $110.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.80 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $114.82​ ​​max $115.29 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$113.80 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... Unless back to a Bull stance.

​A daily close Below $113.80 but above $110.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $110.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​37 max $107.62.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.50 - $112.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.27 and $110.46 and $109.37 Resistance :​​ $111.62 and $112.75 and $113.80
​​​​​​

Dec 8 The 20 DMA in Jeopardy ?


​​​​​On December 4, we did have a daily close below 115.75, triggering then
the Consolidation scenario...​ I must be clear - for me I call it a Consolidation
Pattern but will feel as a Range Pattern in reality.​

I did wrote about the risk for Apple Shares in my Weekly Research:
​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Houston, We May Have a Problem Here ?

​​I expect a Range from the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 114.65
to December 4th high at $117.20. It will become a choppy difficult market
to trade til we break one side of that Range...​​

But IF we do break the 20 DMA at $114.65 on a daily close, I do not see why we will not go testing the 50 DMA now at $107.38... Even if the 115 handle straddle ( long call + long put ) closed on December 5 at $2.55, it is not expensive in that context we may break the 20 DMA...

A few technical comments:
1) Shooting StarPattern on December 4th.​
2) PVT is weakening - see 5th chart below
3) We closed below the 20 DMA on a ratio basis - see 3rd chart below​​
3) We broke on December 4 the new uptrend channel that started on December 1st - $115.75 support ​​
4) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
5) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
6) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.

​​​​​On December 4th, we closed below the $115.75, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close between $114.65 and $117.20 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 5.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 2.12 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are outside into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.34 to 0.20).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 4 a new uptrend channel that started on December 1 with $115.75 as support and $118.74 as resistance.
​​
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on December 3 with $114.39 as support and $116.72 as resistance.

​​We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.88.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.20 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.83​ ​​max $118.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$114.65 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a Bear stance.

​A daily close Below $117.20 but above $114.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​05 max $111.27.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.80 - $115.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.39 and $113.80 and $113.05 Resistance :​​ $115.29 and $115.75 and $116.13

Dec 5  Consolidation Scenario Triggered ?



​​​​Yesterday, we did have a daily close below 115.75, triggering then
the Consolidation scenario...​ I must be clear - for me I call it a Consolidation
Pattern but will feel as a Range Pattern in reality.​

I expect a Range from the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $ 114.33
to December 4th high at $117.20. It will become a choppy difficult market
to trade til we break one side of that Range...​​

Yesterday we did have a Shooting Star Pattern, but the fact we are not at a
top of a market, it have less significance in terms of bearishness...​​​


A few technical comments:
1) Shooting StarPattern on December 4th.​
2) PVT is weakening - see 5th chart below
3) We are testing the 20 DMA on a ratio basis - see 3rd chart below​​
3) We broke on December 4 the new uptrend channel that started on December 1st - $115.75 support ​​
4) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
5) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
6) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.


​​​​On December 4th, we closed be;ow the $115.75, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close between $114.33 and $117.20 ​today.

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 2nd.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.12 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are outside into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.47 to 0.34).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 1st a new Consolidation Channel that started on November 25 with $118.38 as support and $120.63 as resistance. For December 4, the support level is $116.47.

We broke on December 4 a new uptrend channel that started on December 1 with $115.75 as support and $118.74 as resistance
​​
We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.73.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.33 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.20 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.83​ ​​max $118.56 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$114.33 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a Bear stance.

​A daily close Below $117.20 but above $114.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.33 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​30 max $112.75.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.10 - $116.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.29 and $115.11 and $114.33 Resistance :​​ $116.35 and $116.86 and $117.20
​​​

Dec 4   Bullish Scenario Triggered ?


​​​​​Yesterday, we did have a daily close above 115.75, triggering then
the bullish scenario...​

Today will be crucial for Apple, again: for the perfect bullish scenario to be
strong, we need a daily close above $115.75, a difficult task indeed.
Unless, back to Consolidation mode...

​​​​ A close below $115.75 will trigger back the Consolidation Phase...


A few technical comments:
1) Tested the 20 DMA on December 2 and closed above - a good technical sign
2) We stayed within the new uptrend channel that started on December 1st - $115.75 support for today​​
3) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
4) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
5) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.


​​​​On December 3rd, we closed above the $115.75, then triggering the Bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $115.75 ​today, unless back into a Consolidation​ mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 2nd.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.09 ( with stronger prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are outside into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase (from 0.70 to 0.47).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on December 1st a new Consolidation Channel that started on November 25 with $118.38 as support and $120.63 as resistance. For December 4, the support level is $116.47.

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on December 1 with $115.75 as support and $118.74 as resistance
​​
We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.65.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.00 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.47 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.47 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.86​ ​​max $117.57 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$115.75 to iAm in a Bull Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close Below $116.47 but above $115.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $115.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$115.​11 max $114.00.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on December 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.80 - $116.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.75 and $115.11 and $114.00 Resistance :​​ $116.47 and $116.86 and $117.57


Dec 3  Battle Station ?



​​​​​​Yesterday, we did have our Dead Cat Bounce; a shy weaker than expected
​though: we did $115.75 as high and I was expecting 116.03 MAX 116.78.

Today will be crucial for Apple: the Battle will be between staying
above $114.31 to stay into a consolidation Pattern for a few sessions
​or IF we close below, then back to another bear wave...​​

IF ever we break the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $113.64 on a daily
close, expect another nasty wave down...​​​

Market Sentiment into the Technology Sector is still into Overbought
Territory: ​SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - $AAPL ?

A close above $115.75 will trigger back the Bullish Phase...

A few technical comments:
1) Broke the new adjusted steep uptrend channel support at $119.49 on November 28
2) Broke the uptrend channel support at $118.38 on December 1st​
3) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
4) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
5) Relative Volatility rose and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.

​​​​On December 1st, we closed below the $118.38, then triggering the Bearish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bearish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $115.75 ​today, unless back into a Bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28.
But we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on that ratio on December 2nd.​​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.15 ( with stronger prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.89 to 0.70 ).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 28 the adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $119.49 as support and $121.62 as resistance.​​We broke on December 1st a new Consolidation Channel that started on November 25 with $118.38 as support and $120.63 as resistance.

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on December 1 with $114.31 as support and $117.36 as resistance
​​
We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.49.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $113.64 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.75 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.75 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.03​ ​​max $116.86 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$115.75 to iAm in a Bear Mode... Unless back to a Bearish stance.

​A daily close above $115.75 but below $114.31 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.31 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​37 max $111.27.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on December 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.60 - $115.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.31 and $113.64 and $112.75 Resistance :​​ $114.85 and $115.25 and $115.75

Dec 2  Dead Cat Bounce ?


Yesterday, we did have a daily close below $118.38, then triggering the
​Bearish scenario from the Consolidation one...

Market Sentiment into the Technology Sector is still into Overbought
Territory: ​SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - $AAPL ?

​I expect today a dead cat bounce towards 116.03 MAX 116.78 before
​resuming downtrend. ​​​​For today, we need a daily close above $116.78 to be
​back to a Bear Stance from a Nasty Bear one.

A close above $117.45 will trigger back the Bullish Phase...

A few technical comments:
1) Broke the new adjusted steep uptrend channel support at $119.49 on November 28
2) Broke the uptrend channel support at $118.38 on December 1st​
3) Broke the Weekly support channel level at $116.62
4) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
5) Relative Volatility rose and tells me that some hedging was done on Apple Shares.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a Bearish mode ( as long as 2064 hold ).

​​​​On December 1st, we closed below the $118.38, then triggering the Bearish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a Bearish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $116.78 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.02 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.92 to 0.89 ).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 28 the adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $119.49 as support and $121.62 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 1st a new Consolidation Channel that started on November 25 with $118.38 as support and $120.63 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.37.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We broke on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $116.78 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $116.78 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $117.45 ​​max $118.77 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$116.78 to iAm in a Nasty Bear Mode... Unless back to a Bearish stance.

​A daily close above $116.78 but below $114.85 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Nasty Bear pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​37 max $111.27.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on Decemember 1 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.80 - $116.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $115.25 and $114.85 and $113.80 Resistance :​​ $116.03 and $116.78 and $117.45
​​​​​​

​​​Dec 1  Consolidation Phase ?



​​​​Last Friday, we did have a daily close below $119.49, then triggering the
​Consolidation scenario from the Bullish one...

We may spend a few session in trading range from within the new channel
​BUT having a daily close below $118.38 will trigger the Bearish scenario
​from the Consolidation one.​

​​​​For today, we need a daily close above $118.38 to stay into the Consolidation
Phase...​

A few technical comments:

1) Broke the new adjusted steep uptrend channel support at $119.49 on November 28
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $123.98
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) did not make a new high compare to Apple Shares - tiny divergence - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility fell and tells me that some profit taking before the Thanksgiving week end..

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a Consolidation mode ( as long as 2069 hold ).

​​​​On November 28, we traded below the $119.49, then triggering the Consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $118.38 ​today, unless back into a bearish​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 28. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.93 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.95 to 0.92 ).
Read: APPLE Correlation Technicals - I am Weighting on You dear SP500 ?

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on November 28 the adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $119.49 as support and $121.62 as resistance.

​​We have a new Consolidation Channel that started on November 25 with $118.38 as support and $120.63 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.18.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $116.62 as support and $123.98 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $117.45 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.75 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $120.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $121.18 ​​max $121.62 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$118.38 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a Bearish stance.

​A daily close above $118.38 but below $120.63 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $118.38 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​62 max $114.85.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.50 - $119.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.38 and $117.45 and $116.62 Resistance :​​ $119.40 and $119.75 and $120.63

Nov 28  Month End Experiment ?


​​​
Already Month End: early close - low liquidity, it can get very tricky indeed.
Seasonals still bullish but assets performance tells me that the risk
is a rebalancing towards selling stocks and buying bonds.​ And in the case
of Apple, its outperformance can be risky today.​

From October 31 til November 26, Apple Shares was up +10.6% and
​SP500 Index was up only+2.7%...

​​We did have a close above $118.48 Last Friday, keeping the bull scenario
​alive,but quite near of a reversal to a consolidation stance....​
For today, we need a daily close above $119.49.

A few technical comments:

1) Near getting out of that new adjusted steep uptrend channel with $119.49 support for today
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $120.36
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) did not make a new high compare to Apple Shares - tiny divergence - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility still rising tells me that some new speculative options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2067 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $119.49 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 26. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 2.03 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.95 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $119.49 as support and $121.62 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $113.02.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $113.39 as support and $120.36 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $117.45 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.75 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $121.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.63 ​​max $121.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$119.49 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $119.49 but below $121.62 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $119.49 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​62 max $114.85.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 26 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.50 - $119.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.60 and $117.99 and $117.45 Resistance :​​ $119.49 and $119.75 and $120.63

​​​Nov 26   Near Consolidation ?


​​​We did have a close above $117.57 yesterday, keeping the bull scenario alive,
but quite near of a reversal to a consolidation stance....​
For today, we need a daily close above $118.48.

Market keep building momentum even after the daily, weekly and monthly
technical indicators are way overbought; I rarely seen that.

Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.

A few technical comments:

1) Near getting out of that new adjusted steep uptrend channel with $118.48 support for today
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $120.36
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) made a correction, the previous one was November 19 - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility finally stable tells me that some new speculative options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2065 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $118.48 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 24. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.99 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.95 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $118.48 as support and $120.63 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.87.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $113.39 as support and $120.36 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $117.45 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.75 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.75 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.63 ​​max $121.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$118.48 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $118.48 but below $119.71 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $118.48 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$116.​62 max $114.85.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $117.00 - $118.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $117.45 and $116.86 and $116.62 Resistance :​​ $118.48 and $118.77 and $119.21



​​​Nov 25  Thanksgiving Euphoria ?


We did have a close above $117.12 yesterday, keeping the bull scenario alive.
For today, we need a daily close above $117.57.

Market keep building momentum even after the daily, weekly and monthly
technical indicators are way overbought; I rarely seen that.

Options Volatility starting to consolidate tells me the fewer speculative and
hedging players are involved into that Gold Rush - I meant Apple Chase...

Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.

A few technical comments:

1) Still into that new adjusted steep uptrend channel with $117.57 support for today
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $120.36
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being broken at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) made a new high - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility finally stable tells me that some new speculative options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2064 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $117.57 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 20. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.94 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.90 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on November 19 with $117.57 as support and $119.71 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.77.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $113.39 as support and $120.36 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $117.57 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $119.71 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $119.71 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $120.14 ​​max $120.47 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$117.57 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $117.57 but below $119.71 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $117.57 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​85 max $113.30.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $118.10 - $119.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $118.12 and $117.57 and $116.62 Resistance :​​ $119.42 and $119.71 and $120.14


Nov 24  Near Consolidation ?


We did have a close above $115.91 last Friday, keeping the bull scenario alive.
For today, we need a daily close above $117.12.

Market keep building momentum even after the daily, weekly and monthly
technical indicators are way overbought; I rarely seen that.

Options Volatility increasing tells me new speculative and hedging players
are involved into that Gold Rush - I meant Apple Chase...

Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.

A few technical comments:

1) Still into that steep uptrend channel with $117.12 support for today
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $120.36
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) made a new high - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new speculative options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2048 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $117.12 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 20. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.97 ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.87 to 0.90 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $117.12 as support and $120.28 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.55.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $113.39 as support and $120.36 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $117.12 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $118.45 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $118.45 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $119.00 ​​max $119.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$117.12 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $117.12 but below $118.45 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $117.12 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​85 max $113.30.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.90 - $117.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.03 and $115.69 and $114.85 Resistance :​​ $116.86 and $117.57 and $118.45

Nov 21  Bubble Trouble ?

We did have a close above $115.28 yesterday, keeping the bull scenario alive.
For today, we need a daily close above $115.91.

Market keep building momentum even after the daily, weekly and monthly
technical indicators are way overbought; I rarely seen that.

Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.
Seasonals expectations will resume uptrend today
: Apple Shares Behavior Before Thankgiving ?

A few technical comments:

1) Still into that steep uptrend channel with $115.91 support
2) Weekly resistance channel level is $117.28
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
4) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) made a new high - see 5th chart below
5) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new speculative options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2047 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $115.91 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 20. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.87 ( with strongerer prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.71 to 0.87 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $115.91 as support and $119.06 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.55.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $110.25 as support and $117.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $115.91 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $117.58 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $117.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $118.03 ​​max $118.39 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$115.91 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $115.91 but below $117.58 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $115.91 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$114.​85 max $113.30.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $115.90 - $117.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $116.86 and $115.91 and $115.07 Resistance :​​ $117.58 and $118.03 and $118.39

Nov 20  Need Consolidation ?


Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.
The Euphoria phase is over and need some consolidation as seasonals
expectations til November 21: Apple Shares Behavior Before Thankgiving ?

A few technical comments:

1) Already feel a broken uptrend channel unless we have a daily close
above $115.28
2) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) toppish - see 5th chart below
3) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
4) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
5) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new options players out there. Hedging...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2046.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $114.21 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 18. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.80 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.67 to 0.71 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $115.28 as support and $118.30 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.25.
WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $110.25 as support and $117.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.74 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.74 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.32 ​​max $116.67 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$114.21 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $114.21 but below $115.74 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​30 max $112.23.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.10 - $114.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.21 and $113.80 and $113.05 Resistance :​​ $114.80 and $115.28 and $115.74

Nov 19 Extended Euphoria ?

Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.
The Euphoria phase is over and need some consolidation as seasonals
expectations til November 21: Apple Shares Behavior Before Thankgiving ?

A few technical comments:

1) Low Volume Prevail
2) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) new high since break out - see 5th chart below
3) Break Out of the Uptrend Channel at $ 109.95 on November 12
4) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
5) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
6) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2044.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $114.21 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 18. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.81 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.64 to 0.67 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $114.21 as support and $117.32 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $112.13 and PVT now confirm the break out. WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $110.25 as support and $117.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $114.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.69 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.69 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $116.27 ​​max $116.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$114.21 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $114.21 but below $115.69 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $114.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$113.​30 max $112.23.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $114.80 - $116.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $114.78 and $114.21 and $113.89 Resistance :​​ $115.69 and $116.27 and $116.90


Nov 18  Euphoria Over ?


Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment.
The Euphoria phase is over and need some consolidation as seasonals
expectations til November 21: Apple Shares Behavior Before Thankgiving ?

A few technical comments:
1) Doji at the highest price ever
2) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) first pullback since break out - see 5th chart below
3) Break Out of the Uptrend Channel at $ 109.95 on November 12
4) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
5) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
6) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is over.
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2044.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $113.35 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 14. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.79 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.63 to 0.64 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within an uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $113.35 as support and $116.42 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $111.96 and PVT now confirm the break out. WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $110.25 as support and $117.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $113.35 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.09 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.09 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.91 ​​max $116.42 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$113.35 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $113.35 but below $115.09 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $113.35 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​96 max $109.95.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.00 - $114.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.35 and $113.05 and $112.11 Resistance :​​ $114.19 and $115.09 and $115.91

Nov 17  Extended ?


Bulls are pushing their luck in a lower volume environment. The Euphoria
Phase is in Full Throttle.

We are into a Bullish Mode: On November 12, we did trigger the $109.95
resistance level of the uptrend channel.

A few technical comments:
1) Break Out of the Uptrend Channel at $ 109.95 on November 12
2) Monthly Channel Resistance being tested at $114.07
3) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
4) Relative Volatility finally rising tells me that some new options players out there.

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is in Euphoria Phase...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2044 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $112.37 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 14. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.71 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.56 to 0.63 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $112.37 as support and $115.38 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on June 10 ( see 5th chart below - red line ) at $111.85 and PVT now confirm the break out. WE MUST stay over that trendline now....

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $110.25 as support and $117.68 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $112.37 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $115.38 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $115.38 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $115.78 ​​max $116.16 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$112.37 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $112.37 but below $115.38 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $112.37 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$111.​43 max $109.37.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $113.00 - $114.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $113.45 and $113.05 and $112.37 Resistance :​​ $114.19 and $114.79 and $115.38

Nov 14 Euphoria Phase ?

I really don t mind having a bull trend; what we went through in the past
two sessions was capitulation from portfolio managers that can t sustain
anymore the outperformance of Apple Shares.

For me, having a step by step bull trend instead of an Euphoria Phase is a lot
more solid in terms of technicals; that tells me that volatility in Apple Shares
ain t over... Already trading below $111.77 today will be a warning sign...

We are into a Bullish Mode: On November 12, we did trigger the $109.95
resistance level of the uptrend channel.

A few technical comments:
1) Break Out of the Uptrend Channel at $ 109.95 on November 12
2) Correlation risks triggered on November 10


Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is in Euphoria Phase...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2043 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $111.26 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 13. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.62 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.54 to 0.56 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on November 11 with $111.26 as support and $114.37 as resistance.

We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on November 3 with $108.76 as support and $111.77 as resistance.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of October 13 with $107.70 as support and $114.71as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $111.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $113.45 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $113.45 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $113.89 ​​max $114.37 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$111.26 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $111.26 but below $113.45 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $111.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$110.​30 max $109.37.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $112.10 - $113.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $112.10 and $111.77 and $111.26 Resistance :​​ $113.45 and $113.89 and $114.37

Nov 13 Break Out ?

Yesterday I was not convinced of the break out because of the illiquidity the
previous day. I was wrong. By breaking $109.95 - it did confirm the break out
scenario... And reached in the same day my Ultimalte level of $110.91.

We are into a Bullish Mode: On November 12, we did trigger the $109.95
resistance level of the uptrend channel.


A few technical comments:
1) Break Out of the Uptrend Channel at $ 109.95 Pattern
2) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is in a Plateau Phase

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2042.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 12, we traded above the $109.95, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $110.16 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 12. ​
(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.66 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.34 to 0.54 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.



​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on November 3 with $108.60 as support and $111.62 as resistance.

We still take into account an uptrend channel that started on November 6 with $108.85 as support and $110.16 as resistance.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $98.79 as support and $111.82 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $110.16 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $112.14 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $112.14 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $112.94 ​​max $113.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$110.16 to iAm in a Bullsih Mode... Unless back to a Consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $110.16 but below $112.14 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $110.16 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$109.​37 max $108.60.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $110.60 - $112.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $111.43 and $110.55 and $110.16 Resistance :​​ $112.14 and $112.58 and $112.94

Nov 12 Saloon s Door Experiment ?


Yesterday s illiquidity bring what market participants call a break out of the
$109.33 zone. It is a tough call... I NEED TODAY to confirm because I think
that yesterday was an excess... For the ones who believe in the break out
pattern - we should not trade below $109.25 today or break out $109.95 to
confirm...IF so then $110.30 MAX $110.91 for now...

We are still into a Consolidation Mode: On November 6, we did close below
the support level of the steep uptrend channel at $109.25 then triggering the
consolidation phase.

What have changed is that the Mighty SP500 is in a correction pattern.
Also CorrelationRisks are now more than ever alive and then the risk of slippage is increasing tremendously for Apple Shares within the next few trading sessions.

A few technical comments:
1) Consolidation Pattern Still - I think yesterday was an excess
2) Correlation risks triggered on November 10
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is in a Plateau Phase

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2042 hold ).

​​​​On November 6, we closed below $109.25, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $109.33 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.71 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.20 to 0.34 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on November 6 with $108.62 as support and $109.95 as resistance.

Also, we still have to take into account the downtrend channel that started on November 4 with $107.49 support and ​​$109.25 as resistance.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $100.96 as support and $111.14 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $110.91 ​​max $111.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$109.33 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close above $107.72 but below $109.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​90 max $105.35.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $109.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.25 and $108.62 and $108.01 Resistance :​​ $109.95 and $110.30 and $110.91


Nov 11  Consolidation Mode Still - Risk of Slippage Increasing ?

We are still into a Consolidation Mode:On November 6, we did close below
the support level of the steep uptrend channel at $109.25 then triggering the
consolidation phase.

What have changed is that Apple Shares do not perform since the past few
sessions even with the Mighty SP500 in a grinding Pattern. Also Correlation
Risks are now more than ever alive and then the risk of slippage is increasing
tremendously for Apple Shares within the next few trading sessions.

A few technical comments:
1) Consolidation Pattern Still - I think Friday was an excess
2) Correlation riksks triggered on November 10
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is in a Plateau Phase

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2041.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 6, we closed below $109.25, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $109.33 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.76 - now above the 200 DMA - Day Moving Averages ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.76 to 0.20 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new downtrend channel that started on November 4 with $107.51 support and ​​$109.30 as resistance.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $100.96 as support and $111.14 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$109.33 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close above $107.72 but below $109.33 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​90 max $105.35.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $109.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.55 and $108.01 and $107.72 Resistance :​​ $109.33 and $109.69 and $110.30

Nov 10 Still in Consolidation Mode ?


On November 6, we did close below the support level of the steep uptrend
channel at $109.25 then triggering the consolidation phase.

A few technical comments:
1) Consolidation Pattern Still - I think Friday was an excess
2) We are making dailys lower highs but not lower lows yet -
$107.72 to crack will bring us $107.17 first
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is in a Plateau Phase


Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 2040.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 6, we closed below $109.25, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $109.38 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.70 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.79 to 0.76 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not into a downtrend channel that started on November 4 but still take it into account with $106.96 support and ​​$108.72 as resistance.

We have a new resistance trendline that started on November 6 with $ 109.38 as the level.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $100.96 as support and $112.49 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$109.38 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close above $107.72 but below $109.38 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​90 max $105.35.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $109.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.55 and $108.01 and $107.72 Resistance :​​ $109.38 and $109.85 and $110.30

Nov 7  Broken Uptrend Channel ?

Yesterday, we did close below the support level of the steep uptrend
channel at $109.25 then triggering the consolidation phase.

A few technical comments:
1) We are within a new downtrend channel with $108.95 resistance
2) We are making dailys lower highs but not lower lows yet - $107.72 to crack
will bring us $107.17 first
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is in a Plateau Phase
4) A weekly close below but near $108.19 will bring a shooting star
( see second chart below )


Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2017.5 hold ).

​​​​On November 6, we closed below $109.25, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $109.30 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.65 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.86 to 0.79 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new downtrend channel that started on November 4 with $107.17 support and ​​$108.95 as resistance.

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.17 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$109.30 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close above $107.17 but below $109.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.17 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​90 max $105.35.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.00 - $109.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.39 and $108.01 and $107.72 Resistance :​​ $109.30 and $109.49 and $110.30

Nov 6 Consolidation Phase ?


I think we just began a Consolidation Phase for Apple Shares as momentum
for the SP500 and the Euphoria Phase are behind us.

Also, closing yesterday near the support level of the uptrend channel
then at $108.70 ( now at $109.25 for today ) is a concern to me.

A few technical comments:
1) We are making dailys lower highs but not lower lows yet - $107.72 to crack
2) We still take into account an uptrend channel with $109.25 support and
$110.71 as resistance for today - see 1rst chart below
3) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at
$1.38 for Nov 7 - a very cheap play to hedge... Or either a call or a put...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2017.5 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $109.25 ​today, unless back into a consolidation ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.57 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.92 to 0.86 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $109.25 support and ​​$110.71 as resistance.


​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $109.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.30 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$109.25 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a consolidation stance.

​A daily close above $109.25 but below $110.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $109.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​72 max $105.90.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.70 - $109.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.01 and $107.72 and $107.21 Resistance :​​ $108.75 and $109.25 and $110.30

Nov 5 Still into the Channel ?

Yesterday I wrote: We are near the Euphoria phase in Apple Shares as it
did trade yesterday as a capitulation for the shorts...

We had our first serious consolidation since earnings releases and that is
a good thing as weak hands are out.

A few technical comments:
1) We are still within an uptrend channel with $108.70 support and $110.15
as resistance for today - see 1srt chart below - THAT IS THE KEY POINT
2) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at
$1.76 for Nov 7 - a very cheap play to hedge... Or either a call or a put...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 2009 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $108.70 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on November 3. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase​( from 0.93 to 0.92 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $108.70 support and ​​$110.15 as resistance.


​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $110.15 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $110.15 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$108.70 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $108.70 but below $110.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​21 max $105.90.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on November 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.40 - $110.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $108.70 and $108.01 and $107.72 Resistance :​​ $109.49 and $110.15 and $111.03


Nov 4  Near Euphoria Phase


We are near the Euphoria phase in Apple Shares a it did trade yesterday as a
capitulation for the shorts...

A few technical comments:
1) A Hanging Man Candle Pattern appeared on October 31 and was invalidated
because we had a daily close above $108.00
2) We are still within an uptrend channel with $108.11 support and $109.68
as resistance for today
3) A new high on October 31 and PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is NOT in
divergence anymore from the previous high made on Sept 2 on Apple Shares
at $103.74 -- see last chart below
4) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $1.94 for Nov 7 - a very cheap play to hedge... Or either a call or a put...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1999.5 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $108.11 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 29. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.94 to 0.93 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $108.11 support and ​​$109.68 as resistance.


​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.68 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.68 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$108.11 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $108.11 but below $109.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​21 max $105.90.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.40 - $110.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.12 and $108.39 and $108.11 Resistance :​​ $110.30 and $111.03 and $111.84

We are near the Euphoria phase in Apple Shares a it did trade yesterday as a
capitulation for the shorts...

A few technical comments:
1) A Hanging Man Candle Pattern appeared on October 31 and was invalidated
because we had a daily close above $108.00
2) We are still within an uptrend channel with $108.11 support and $109.68
as resistance for today
3) A new high on October 31 and PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is NOT in
divergence anymore from the previous high made on Sept 2 on Apple Shares
at $103.74 -- see last chart below
4) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $1.94 for Nov 7 - a very cheap play to hedge... Or either a call or a put...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1999.5 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $108.11 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 29. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.94 to 0.93 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $108.11 support and ​​$109.68 as resistance.


​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.84 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $108.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.68 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.68 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $111.03 ​​max $111.84 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$108.11 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $108.11 but below $109.68 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $108.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$107.​21 max $105.90.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on November 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $108.40 - $110.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $109.12 and $108.39 and $108.11 Resistance :​​ $110.30 and $111.03 and $111.84

Nov 3 Hanging Man Pattern on my Radar ?


So as expected, we had Apple Shares underperforming the Mighty SP500
in the past few trading sessions. I think we are near reversal of that phase:
may be another day MAX two for that before resuming outperformance.

A few technical comments:
1) A Hanging Man Candle Pattern appeared on October 31;
We need to monitor it: a daily close below $108.00 will trigger it and bring
a correction phase...And $107.59 broken bring back a bear phase.
2) We are still within an uptrend channel with $107.59 support and $109.11
as resistance for today
3) A new high on October 31 and PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is NOT in
divergence anymore from the previous high made on Sept 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 -- see last chart below
4) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $2.10 for Nov 7 - a very cheap play...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1989.5 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $107.59 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 29. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.51 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.97 to 0.94 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $107.59 support and ​​$109.11 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.51 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 28 with $99.94 as support and $111.52 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $107.59 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $109.11 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $109.11 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $109.67 ​​max $110.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$107.59 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $107.59 but below $109.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $107.59 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​90 max $104.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 31 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.20 - $108.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $107.59 and $107.21 and $106.36 Resistance :​​ $108.54 and $108.86 and $109.11


Oct 31 Month End Experiment ?


As I wrote yesterday: We can have weird behavior at the end of the month as
Apple Shares outperformed tremendously the Mighty SP500 in October...
So we can have a short term underperformance of Apple for today and
resuming outperformance at the beginning of November...

A few technical comments:
1) We are still within an uptrend channel with $106.94 support and $108.39
as resistance for today
2) A new high on October 29 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence
from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 -
that tells me that the last run up in price was not done with conviction and strenght but a lack of sellers - see last chart below
3) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $0.77 - a very cheap play...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1980 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $106.94 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 29. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.50 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.97 to 0.97 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $106.94 support and ​​$108.39 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.54 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $100.27 as support and $107.38 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $106.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $108.39 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $108.39 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $108.71 ​​max $109.02 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$106.94 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $106.94 but below $108.39 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $106.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​49 max $104.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 30 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $107.40 - $108.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $107.37 and $106.94 and $106.36 Resistance :​​ $108.39 and $108.71 and $109.02
Oct  30 Wall of Resistance ?


Bulls are starting seriously to push their luck here ( read technical comments )

We can have weird behavior at the end of the month as Apple Shares
outperformed tremendously the Mighty SP500... So we can have a short
term underperformance of Apple til then...

A few technical comments:
1) We reached the Monthly Resistance Level at $106.80
2) We reached the Weekly Resistance Level at $107.38
3) We Reached yesterday the Daily Resistance Channel at $107.30
4) A new high on October 29 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 - that tells me that the last run up in price was not done with conviction and strenght but a lack of sellers - see last chart below
5) We are still within an uptrend channel with $106.36 support and $107.89 as resistance
5) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $1.30 - a cheap play...

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bearish mode ( as long as 1981 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $106.36 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 29. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.43 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.96 to 0.94 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $106.36 support and ​​$107.89 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.61 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $100.27 as support and $107.38 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $106.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $107.37 will mean to me technical strength...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $107.37 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $107.89 ​​max $108.71 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$106.36 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close above $106.36 but below $107.37 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $106.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$105.​49 max $104.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.50 - $107.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $106.36 and $105.85 and $105.49 Resistance :​​ $107.37 and $107.89 and $108.71

Oct 29  Thin Market ?


Two days ago I wrote that the Chasing Prices phase was Over. I was wrong...
Month end buying or capitulation from under invested portfolio managers....
I was caught totally by surprise by that gap up yesterday...

But I still think that We re resuming a phase where Apple Shares will behave
in the same wayof the SP500 but will keep outperforming... Slightly...

A few technical comments:
1) We got near yesterday the MAX impulse level of $106.93
2) 20 DMA above 50 DMA on Apple at close on October 28
3) We are within a new uptrend channel with $105.85 support and $107.30 as resistance
4) A new high on October 28 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 - that tells me that the last run up in price was not done with conviction and strenght but a lack of sellers - see last chart below
5) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $1.58 - still a cheap play...
6) Getting near the weekly resistance channel level of $107.38

​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is almost done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1963 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $105.85 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 28. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.49 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.98 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with $105.85 support and ​​$107.30 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.70 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $100.27 as support and $107.38 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $105.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $107.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $107.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $107.77 ​​max $108.01 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$105.85 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $108.85 but above $107.30 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $105.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$104.​70 max $103.63.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $105.80 - $107.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $105.85 and $105.49 and $105.05 Resistance :​​ $106.74 and $107.30 and $107.77
Oct 28 Market Perform ?

Yesterday I wrote that the Chasing Prices phase was Over.
We re resuming a phase where Apple Shares will behave in the same way
of the SP500 but will keep outperforming... Slightly...

A few technical comments:
1) We are within a new uptrend channel with $104.90 support and
$105.86 as resistance
1) A new high on October 24 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence
from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 -
see APPLE Correlation Technicals - Correlation Risks Increasing ?
2) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $1.66 -
a cheap play...

​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is almost done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1951.5 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $104.53 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 23. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.39 - lowest since March 21 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.98 to 0.98 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 24 with $104.90 support and ​​$105.86 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.77 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $100.27 as support and $107.38 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​Starting to trade below $104.53 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $105.86 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $105.86 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $106.59 ​​max $106.93 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$104.53 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $104.53 but above $105.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $104.53 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$103.​70 max $102.60.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $104.90 - $105.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $105.05 and $104.53 and $104.11 Resistance :​​ $105.86 and $106.59 and $106.93

Oct 27 Chasing Prices Over ?

Here s The Sequence of Price Action I Posted last week:
1) On Oct 21, I was expecting on the first day after Earnings Release (ER) was
short term sellers that took the control of the market by taking their profits.
2) On Oct 22, I was expecting that Portfolio managers will buy on dip and that
will keep Apple Shares in an outperformance mode.
3) On Oct 23, I was expecting a step by step mode with gaps and air
pockets on the way...

But what we had on October 23 was not IF the price is right, but a chasing
price behavior from portfolio managers. What surprise me is that it was done
in an orderly manner... I think now that the Chasing Prices Phase is Over...

A few technical comments:
1) A new high on October 24 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74 - see APPLE Correlation Technicals - Correlation Risks Increasing ?
2) At the money straddle in Options pre- earnings was $4.45, now at $2.24 - a cheap play...

​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance... That phase is almost done...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1944 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $104.53 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 23. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.35 - lowest since March 21 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.97 to 0.98 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $101.68 support and ​​$103.70 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.77 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $100.27 as support and $107.38 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.24 as support and $101.57 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $104.53 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $105.49 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $105.49 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $106.17 ​​max $106.59 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$104.53 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $104.53 but above $105.49 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $104.53 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$103.​70 max $102.60.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $104.50 - $105.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $104.53 and $104.11 and $103.63 Resistance :​​ $105.49 and $106.17 and $106.59


Oct 24 Chasing Prices ?


The Sequence:
1) On Oct 21, I was expecting on the first day after Earnings Release (ER) was
short term sellers that took the control of the market by taking their profits.
2) On Oct 22, I was expecting that Portfolio managers will buy on dip and that
will keep Apple Shares in an outperformance mode.
3) On Oct 23, I was expecting a step by step mode with gaps and air
pockets on the way...

But what we had on October 23 was not IF the price is right, but a chasing
price behavior from portfolio managers. What surprise me is that it was done
in an orderly manner...

A few technical comments:
1) A new high on October 23 but PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) in divergence from the previous high made on September 2 on Apple Shares at $103.74
2) Options related put a wall of resistance at the $105.00 strike
3) The Shooting Star scenario on October 22 was invalidated ; we did close above 102.99 today.

​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1937 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $103.53 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode... But already starting to trade below $104.11 will be seen as technical weakness...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 23. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.31 - lowest since March 20 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.95 to 0.97 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $101.53 support and ​​$103.53 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.81 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.64 as support and $106.75 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.56 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $103.53 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $105.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $105.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $105.63 ​​max $105.99 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$103.53 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $103.53 but above $105.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $103.53 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$102.​60 max $101.53.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $104.10 - $105.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $104.11 and $103.53 and $100.02 Resistance :​​ $105.05 and $105.63 and $105.99

Oct 23 Shooting Star ?

So what I was expecting on the first day after Earnings Release (ER) was
short term sellers that took the control of the market by taking their profits.

Yesterday, I was expecting that Portfolio managers will buy on dip and that
will keep Apple Shares in an outperformance mode.

Now the market will be on a more step by step mode with gaps and air
pockets on the way... We had a Shooting Star yesterday and it becomes
crucial that we have a daily close above 102.99 to keep technical momentum.

A few technical comments:
1) We did have a Shooting Star on October 22; could be a warning sign IF close below 102.99 today.
2) We did close above the resistance trendline at $101.90 then triggering the bullish impulse that we had on October 22 - today s level is $101.85.
3) We tested the high an old uptrend channel but closed below the resistance level then at $103.20.
4) The other interesting fact is that Apple Shares did outperform the SP500 yesterday and did make a new high on a ratio basis, the highest level ever... ( see 3 rd chart below - Blue Line ).
5) We are back within the weekly uptrend channel support at $99.64


​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1923 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $102.60 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 22. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.27 - lowest since March 17 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.87 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $101.39 support and ​​$103.33 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.85 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.64 as support and $106.75 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.56 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $104.11 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $104.11 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.77 ​​max $105.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$102.60 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.60 but above $104.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $102.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$101.​33 max $100.21.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.60 - $104.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $103.05 and $102.60 and $101.85 Resistance :​​ $104.11 and $104.77 and $105.18



Oct 22 Short Term vs Long Term ?


What we did experience yesterday was that short term sellers took the
control of the market by taking their profits. They won t be back soon.
Two ways of saying that; Relative Volatility fell ( long straddle 99.00 Oct 24
quoted at $4.45 last Friday did close on October 21 at $3.57 ) and comments
on the Stoctwits Streams...

The other interesting fact is that Apple Shares did outperform the SP500
yesterday but did not make a new high on a ratio basis, the highest level
was reached on October 13 ( see 3 rd chart below - Blue Line ).

Now I think that Portfolio managers will buy on dip and that will keep Apple Shares in an outperformance mode.

A few technical comments ( All Good Indeed ):
1) We did close above the resistance trendline at $101.97 - todays level is $101.90
2) We tested the high and low of an old uptrend channel.
3) We are back within the weekly uptrend channel support at $99.64

But now what: Apple Shares beed to close above the resistance trendline at $101.90 for a strong bullish impulse; ( see 1st chart below - amber line ). IF so, then expect another impulse wave for a retest of the high made on September 2 at $103.74. Unless, we may range trade for a few sessions and consolidate at the higher price level post earnings...
​​
​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance...
​2) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1926 hold ).

​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $101.27 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.40 - lowest since March 26 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.77 to 0.87 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $101.27 support and ​​$103.20 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 2 with $101.90 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.64 as support and $106.75 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.56 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.27 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $101.27 but above $103.20 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.27 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​07 max $99.66.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 21 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.50 - $102.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.90 and $101.27 and $100.54 Resistance :​​ $102.94 and $103.20 and $103.74

Oct 21 All Good Indeed ?

Yesterday I wrote: ​So expect today an outperformance of Apple Shares over
the SP500. We can expect a retest of the $98.57 to $99.00 zone today.

Well, it did exceed my expectations by trading as high as $99.96...

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

A few technical comments ( All Good Indeed ):
1) We did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $99.66
2) Post ER ( Earnings Realease ), we are above the 50 DMA at $99.94
3) We are back within the weekly uptrend channel support at $99.64

But now what: Next big test for Apple Shares will be to close above the resistance trendline at $101.97;
( see 1st chart below - amber line ). IF so, then expect another impulse wave for a retest of the high made on September 2 at $103.74.
​​
​ Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Post ER that will bring short players to cover
2) Portfolio managers under invested will have to consider to rebalance...
​3) SP500 futures are back into a bullish mode ( as long as 1889 hold ).


​​​​On October 20, we closed above $98.19, then triggering the bullish phase ​for Apple Shares.​​

​​To stay on a bullish trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $99.94 ​today, unless back into a bear ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.60 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.82 to 0.77 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still taking into account a new uptrend channel that started on October 15 with $98.42 support and ​​$100.02 as resistance.

We have a resistance trendline that started on September 2 with $101.97 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.64 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.56 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.97 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.97 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.94 ​​max $103.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$99.94 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.94 but above $101.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullsih pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​57 max $98.22.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 20 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.10 - $102.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.08 and $100.61 and $99.94 Resistance :​​ $101.97 and $102.38 and $102.94


Oct 20  Last Grind Before ER ?


​​CHARTS NOT UPDATED - TECHNICAL ISSUE

​​We are in the last grind ( hope ) phase before ER ( Eanings Realease ) due
today after the close.​

​It is always a tough call and not my game to take undue risk from ER.
​​Most have been wrote in Pot Pourri.
​​​​
​So expect today an outperformance of Apple Shares over the SP500.
I say that because we are back in correction mode into the SP500 Futures and it will more difficult for Apple Shares to shine...​​

​​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high - Expectations form ER
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
​3) SP500 futures are back into a bear mode ( as long as 1897 hold ).

We can expect a retest of the $98.57 to $99.00 zone today and after will be the ER that will impact prices after being published.

So I will turn neutral and will give only technical levels to follow...

​​​​On October 13, we broke the 20 DMA, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares from a bull trend.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $98.19 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.
​We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to 1.44 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.78 to 0.82 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 15 with $95.85 support and ​​$98.19 as resistance.

We have a resistance trendline that started on September 25 with $98.82 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.64 ( broken ) as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.56 as support and $101.89 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $98.82 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $98.82 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $99.73 ​​max $101.89 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$98.19 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $95.85 but above $98.19 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​36 max $93.28.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.70 - $99.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.72 and $96.70 and $95.85 Resistance :​​ $98.57 and $99.00 and $99.73

​MACRO LEVEL for ER
Support : $95.18 and $93.28 Resistance :​​ $102.38 and $103.74
Oct 17

Here is coming the tricky part for Apple Shares. We broke the wedge and fell
like a rock to reach oversold levels. We re getting quite near of Apple Earning
​Release​ (ER) that will bring back some players and finally, SP500 futures are
​i​n a ​dead cat bounce mode.

For me, it will remain just a rebound unless we do close above $97.95 for
today. If we close above, then back to a bullish mode.
​​​​
​We will be facing tons a resistance levels til ER:
1) Lowest trading level on September 25 at $97.72
2) Resistance level of the new uptrend channel at $97.95
3) ​​Lowest trading level on October 14 at $98.57
4) Resistance level from a trendline at $98.74​​​
5) Finally, the weekly resistance level ( and wedge ) at $99.15.​

But through the years, one thing I learned: anything can happen...

​​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
​3) SP500 futures are into a dead cat bounce mode ( as long as 1852.5 hold ).

On October 13, we broke the 20 DMA, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares from a bull trend.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $97.95 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.36 - lowest since March 21 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.62 to 0.78 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 15 with $95.65 support and ​​$97.95 as resistance.

We have a resistance trendline that started on September 25 with $98.74 (​​chart below - amber line).

​We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.15 ( broken ) as support and $102.07 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.79 as support and $102.07 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.95 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.95 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.58 ​​max $99.15 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$97.95 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $95.18 but above $97.95 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​36 max $93.28.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.70 - $98.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.70 and $96.14 and $95.66 Resistance :​​ $97.95 and $98.57

​​​​​​Oct 16  Damage Report

Yesterday I wrote: Apple Shares at Crossroads
​For me, having a close today above the 50 DMA (at ​$99.70) will retrieve
that major slippage risk that Apple Shares is facing.

That wedge pattern will become crucial as we get near the Earnings Release
​on October 20: breaking one side or the other will trigger finally a quick move
​in price: $98.91 as support and ​$102.07 ​as resistance.​​

We finally broke the support level of the wedge at $98.91, triggering a nasty
​bear move - catching up with the SP500...

Also, we broke the weekly channel support level at $99.15...​​

​​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
3) We now must take into account a broken wedge pattern: 5th Chart Below - Amber Trendline
​3) SP500 futures are into a bear mode ( as long as 1865.5 hold ).

On October 13, we broke the 20 DMA, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares from a bull trend.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $97.72 ​today, unless back into a bullish ​mode...

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.41 - lowest since March 20 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.29 to 0.62 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on October 14 a downtrend channel that started on October 9 with $99.21 support and ​​$101.19 as resistance.

We broke a support trendline that started on September 25 with $98.62 as support (​​chart below - amber line).

​We also broke a huge wedge pattern that started on September 2 with $98.91 as support and ​$102.07 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.15 ( broken ) as support and $102.07 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.

​​We have on a weekly basis, a downtrend channel that started on the week of September 1st with $94.79 as support and $102.07 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.72 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.72 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.31 ​​max $98.69 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$97.72 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $95.18 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​36 max $93.28.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.10 - $97.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.14 and $95.18 and $94.79 Resistance :​​ $97.72 and $98.04
​​​

Oct 15  Apple Shares at Crossroads ?

​Apple Shares are at a crucial technical levels here:
1) We​ broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on October 13 at $100.47
2) We broke the 50 DMA on October 14 at ​$ 99.64
3) We broke the daily downtrend channel on October 14 at ​$99.50
3) We are testing the bottom of the wedge at ​$98.91 for today
4) We are under the weekly support in the uptrend channel​ at $99.15

​​So it is D-Day for Apple Shares.
For me, having a close today above the 50 DMA ( at ​$99.70 ) will retrieve
that major slippage risk that Apple Shares is facing.
​​
​On a relative basis, October 14 was the bottom historically speaking; See Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER​

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
3) We now must take into account a wedge pattern
​3) SP500 futures are into a bear mode ( as long as 1883 hold ).

On October 13, we broke the 20 DMA, then triggering the consolidation phase ​for Apple Shares from a bull trend.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $99.70 ​today ( the 50 DMA - Day Moving Average ), unless back into a bullish ​mode...

That wedge pattern will become crucial as we get near the Earnings Release on October 20: breaking one side or the other will trigger finally a quick move in price: $98.91 as support and ​$102.07 ​as resistance.​​
- 5th Chart Below - Amber Trendline

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.44 - lowest since May 15 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.08 to 0.29 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on October 14 a downtrend channel that started on October 9 with $99.21 support and ​​$101.19 as resistance.

We have a support trendline that started on September 25 with $98.62 as support (​​chart below - amber line).

​We are within a huge wedge pattern that started on September 2 with $98.91 as support and ​$102.07 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.15 as support and $102.07 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $98.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.70 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.37 ​​max $101.19 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$99.70 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $98.62 but above $99.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $98.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​04 max $96.14.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 14 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $98.30 - $99.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.62 and $98.04 Resistance :​​ $99.70 and $100.37

​​Oct 14  In a Relative Way ?


Not much have changed for me: I expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500
​til the Earnings Release but with that bad behavior of global markets, tough
​f​or Apple Shares to trade up in price.

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
3) We now must take into account a wedge pattern
​3) SP500 futures are into a bear mode ( as long as 1887.5 hold ).

Yesterday, we broke the 20 DMA, then triggerening the consolidation phase
​for Apple Shares from a bull trend.​​

​​To stay on a consolidation trend, we need to stay and have a daily close below $100.43 ​today ( the 20 DMA - Day Moving Average ), unless back into a bullish ​mode...

That wedge pattern will become crucial as we get near the Earnings Release on October 20: breaking one side or the other will trigger finally a quick move in price: $98.80 as support and ​$102.13 ​as resistance.​​
- 5th Chart Below - Amber Trendline

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 13. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.37 - lowest since March 26 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.24 to -0.08 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a downtrend channel that started on October 9 with $99.50 support and ​​$101.54 as resistance.

​We are within a huge wedge pattern that started on September 2 with $98.80 as support and ​$102.13 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.33 as support and $102.13 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.62 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.54 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.54 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.38 ​​max $102.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$100.43 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $99.32 but above $101.54 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.62 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​31 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 13 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.60 - $101.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $99.62 and $99.04 Resistance :​​ $101.11 and $101.54
​​​

​​​Oct 13 Apple Shares Q4 Behavior within a Wedgy Pattern ?

Apple Shares went through the turmoil of the Global Financial Markets
with a very good performance indeed.​

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) ​Seasonals favor outperformance til Oc 20: Apple Shares Behavior Before Q4 ER
3) We now must take into account a wedge pattern
​3) SP500 futures are into a dead cat bounce mode ( as long as 1880.5 hold ).

​​To stay on a bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $100.52
​today ( the 20 DMA - Day Moving Average ), unless back into a consolidation
​mode...

That wedge pattern will become crucial as we get near the Earnings Release on October 20: breaking one side or the other will trigger finally a quick move in price: $98.67 as support and ​$102.19 ​as resistance.​​
- 5th Chart Below - Amber Trendline

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ on October 10. ​(3rd chart below - red line - ellipse).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to 1.40 - lowest since March 26 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.10 to -0.24 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We still have to take into account an overlapp uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $100.06 support and ​​$102.05 as resistance.

​We are within a huge wedge pattern that started on September 2 with $98.67 as support and ​$102.19 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $99.6 as support ( being tested on October 7 ) and $106.35 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.52 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.94 ​​max $103.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.52 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $100.52 but above $102.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.52 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​31 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.10 - $101.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.52 and $100.06 Resistance :​​ $101.54 and $102.05


​​​Oct 10 iCahn Christmas Wish List ?



Mr iCahn; a reality check for you:
1) To let you know that I join you in your wish list for Apple Shares at $203
2) SP500 is in a bear wave
3) If it is that cheap, then why you do not buy more...​​​

​​To stay on a bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $100.57
​today ( the 20 DMA - Day Moving Avergae ), unless back into a consolidation
​mode...

I already fear saloon s door here - portofilo managers will sell those trade
at profit ( Apple, Facebook ,... ) to cover losses elsewhere...​​​

Also, take note that we closed on October 7 a little below the weekly support
​trendline at $98.80​ - Second Chart Below - Ellipse

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) SP500 futures are into a bear mode ( as long as 1937 hold ).

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

We made a new high​ on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​. ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fellrose to 1.50 - lowest since May 16 ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.87 to 0.10 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on September 15 with $95.74 as support and ​$99.72 ​as resistance.​​

We still have to take into account an overlapp uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $99.88 support and ​​$101.87 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $98.80 as support ( being tested on October 7 ) and $105.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.57 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.87 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.87 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.35 ​​max $102.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.57 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $100.57 but above $101.87 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.57 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​31 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.40 - $101.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.57 and $99.88 Resistance :​​ $101.54 and $101.87

​​​​​October 9 iCahn Bid Too ?

Yesterday with the Dovish FED and iCahn was a complete and violent
turnaround on Apple shares:

1) We came back above the 50 DMA at $99.39
2) We came back above the 20 DMA at $100.59
3) We broke the downtrend Channel then at ​​​​​$100.07 ( today at $99.87 )
4) We had a Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Apple Shares.​

​​To stay on a bull trend, we need to stay and have a daily close above $99.87
​today, unless back into a consolidation mode...

Also, take note that we closed on October 7 a little below the weekly support
​trendline at $98.80​ - Second Chart Below - Ellipse

​​But do not be mislead here. That kind of trading behavior should continue for a few weeks; volatility will prevail on the global markets and on Apple Shares.

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) SP500 futures are into a dead cat bounce mode ( as long as 1940.5 hold ).

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

I must say that we closed above the 50 DMA on October 3 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​.
​ ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.80 ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.88 to 0.87 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on September 15 with $96.07 as support and ​$100.07 ​as resistance.​​

We still have to take into account an overlapp uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $99.74 support and ​​$101.72 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $98.80 as support ( being tested on October 7 ) and $105.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.72 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.72 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.35 ​​max $102.94 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$99.87 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.87 but above $101.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​31 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.80 - $101.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.29 and $99.87 Resistance :​​ $101.54 and $101.72

​​Oct 8 My Broken 50 DMA ?


​​Yesterday I wrote: A close today below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​ at $99.34 will be seen a extreme technical weakness.

That broken 50 DMA is now at $99.36 and need to be reclaim before​​ we
​consider shifting to ​any bullish move​ for Apple Shares.

Also, take note that we closed yesterday a little below the weekly support
​trendline at $98.80​ - Second Chart Below - Ellipse

​​Another turmoil wave yesterday in global markets. Tha should continue
for a few weeks; volatility will prevail.​

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) SP500 futures are into a bear mode ( as long as 1939 hold ).

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

I must say that we closed above the 50 DMA on October 3 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​.
​ ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.66 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.71 to 0.76 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within a downtrend channel that started on September 15 with $96.07 as support and ​$100.07 ​as resistance.​​

We still have to take into account an overlapp uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $99.62 support and ​​$101.54 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $98.80 as support ( being tested on October 7 ) and $105.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $100.07 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.62 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.64 ​​max $101.37 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$99.62 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $99.62 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​07 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 7 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.70 - $99.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.04 and $97.72 Resistance :​​ $99.04 and $99.36


​​​Oct 7 Failed Attempt ?


Yesterday was a 4 failed set up:
1) ​Tested the $100.22 level ( previous high of October 2 )
2) Tested the resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at $100.43
3) Kissed the 20 DMA then at $100.50
4) Closed with a nasty candle on a daily basis​​​

​​Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) SP500 futures are back into correction mode.


​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple ​Shares for the next few sessions.

​​A close today below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $99.34 will be seen a extreme technical weakness.

I must say that we closed above the 50 DMA on October 3 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​.
​ ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.76 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.41 to 0.71 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within a downtrend channel that started on September 15 with $96.27 as support and ​$100.22 ​as resistance.​​

We have also an overlapp uptrend channel that started on October 1 with $99.34 support and ​​$101.37 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $98.80 as support and $105.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $100.22 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $100.22 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.56 ​​max $101.37 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$100.22 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $100.22 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​07 max $96.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on October 6 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $98.70 - $100.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.70 and $98.40 Resistance :​​ $99.62 and $100.22


​​Oct 6  Near Resuming Uptrend ?


​​Last Friday, we did closed slightly below my trigger level - so I keep that
bearish bet BUT near resuming Uptrend​... ​Already breaking the $100.22
level will be the first sign...​​

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high
2) SP500 futures are in a dead cat bounce mode.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple
​Shares for the next few sessions.

​​The other factor is that we ested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
on October 3 then at $99.32 and rebounded.

​​

I must say that we closed above the 50 DMA on October 3 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​.
​ ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.85 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.64 to 0.41 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within a downtrend channel that started on September 15 with $96.42 as support and ​$100.43 ​as resistance.​​

We have also an overlapp downtrend channel that started on October 1 with $97.07 support and ​​$99.29 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $98.80 as support and $105.71 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $100.22 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $100.22 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $101.21 ​​max $101.54 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$99.29 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $99.29 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$97.​07 max $96.14.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on October 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.30 - $100.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $99.62 and $98.70 Resistance :​​ $100.50 and $101.21


Sep 26 ​My Broken 50 DMA ?

Yesterday I wrote that: ​​Risk are now tilted on the downside even IF we did
​not broke yet the ​technical level of $101.56 ( closed at $101.75 )​​

Apple Shares are being driven by:
1) Headlines that keeps the Volatility high and pressure building from​​ ​iPhon 6+
​ and also that Apple was pulling out their last update on the iOS Software
2) SP500 futures are in a bearish mode.

​​​​​I think that those two combined will keep tremendous volatility in Apple
​Shares for the next few sessions.

​​The other factor is that we broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
on September 25 then at $98.66 - now at $98.72. For technicains, this is quite bad.​
On the other side, we got near the weekly support trendline at $97.49 and stayed above...​

But today will be the dead cat bounce story that will prevail; I see a bounce back towards the 50 DMA at $98.72 and $99.39 as first targets. I fear that some will be selling on strenght above those levels...

​​So from a bullish mode on September 25, we shift to a bearish mode as ​long as we stay below $99.39 for today.​

I must say that we closed below the 50 DMA on September 25 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​.
​ ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally fell to 1.79 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.52 to 0.61 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We broke on September 25 a new downtrend channel that started on September 23 with $100.35 as support and ​$102.76 ​as resistance.​​

Also, we have a new support trendline at $99.39 ( see amber line - ​first chart below ).

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $97.49 as support and $104.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $100.09 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $100.09 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.73 ​​max $101.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$99.39 to iAm in a Bearish Mode... Unless back to a bullish stance.

​A daily close below $99.39 but above $97.72 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a nasty correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​80 max $96.14.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 25 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $98.30 - $100.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.31 and $97.72 Resistance :​​ $99.39 and $100.09


​​​Sep 25


​​Saloon s Door Experiment​​ ?

​​On September 23, having the annoucement that Apple Inches Closer To
​iPhone 6 ​Launch In China was the factor bringing a nice rally...

But on September 24, stories on the new iPhone 6 + and also that Apple was
pulling out their last update on the iOS Software is creating for me
a Saloon s Door Pattern. Together, the issues are embarrassing for Apple at
​a time when it is hoping to sell a record number of phones.

​​Risk are now tilted on the downside even IF we did not broke yet the
​technical level of $101.56 ( closed at $101.75 )​​

And yesterday I wrote: ​​Ideally, we will stay over a support trendline at
​$101.80 and continue the rallye for technical strenght - it didn t.

​​SP500 is in a dead cat bounce mode that can bring some Counter Trend trades.

​​So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $101.56 hold for today.​

I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 22 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ and made a new high on September 23rd. ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally fell to 1.77 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.48 to -0.52 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a new downtrend channel that started on September 23 with $100.35 as support and ​$102.76 ​as resistance.​​

Also, we have a new support trendline at $101.65 ( see amber line - ​first chart below ).

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $97.49 as support and $104.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.56 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.76 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.56 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.76 but above $101.56 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.56 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​35 max $99.62.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 24 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.40 - $102.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.95 and $100.35 Resistance :​​ $101.80 and $102.35

​​Sep 24 The China Impact​​ ?

Yesterday, having the annoucement that Apple Inches Closer To iPhone 6
​Launch In China was the factor bringing a daily bullish engulfing pattern.

​​We have been testing again the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)-now at $100.85
​and rebounded violently. But do not be mislead, we will need to have a
confirmation sooner than later about that approval from China...​

SP500 is in a dead cat bounce mode that can bring some Counter Trend trades.

I think that with that run up yesterday, a lot of profit taking was done as the
Relative Volatility was crushed​​ to a level not seen since August 1; typical
reaction to huge bullish day...​
​​
​Ideally, we will stay over a support trendline at $ 101.80 and continue the rallye for technical strenght.
​​​​
So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $101.56 hold for today.​

I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 22 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ and made a new high on September 23rd. ​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally fell to 1.58 ( with stronger prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.21 to -0.48 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have an uptrend channel that started on September 16 with $102.20 as support and ​$104.57 ​as resistance.​​

Also, we have a new support trendline at $101.80 ( see amber line - ​first chart below ).

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $97.49 as support and $104.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.56 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.56 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $103.20 but above $101.56 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.56 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​90 max $99.62.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 23 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.80 - $103.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.80 and $101.56 Resistance :​​ $102.57 and $103.20

​​Sep 23  Critical 20 DMA ?


​​We have been testing again the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)-now at $100.85
​That start to make me quite nervous as IF we break it, then the next major
​support is the 50 DMA at $98.41. Also, we almost broke the uptrend channel.

SP500 is in a correction mode that does not help at all Apple Shares and
we are post First Weekend iPhone ​Sales which usually see a correction.
So be prepared to see a pullback...

​​​​On the chart below, you can see the previous 3 years First Weekend iPhone
​Sales Apple Shares Price which is normalize at Annoucement date at 100.
In 2012, it was September 23, September 24 in 2012 and October 17 in 2011.
​​
What we see on average is that peak price is reached at the event date - in
​our case will be September 22 and fall after that...
​​
Chart of Apple Shares Price Normalize at 100 on Event Days
( 2011 to 2013 )​

​​For now, that 20 DMA is my guide technically speaking ( now at $100.85 )...

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.85 hold for today.​

I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 22 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally fell to 1.76 from September 15 low of 1.75 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.28 to -0.21 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have an uptrend channel that started on September 16 with $101.63 as support and ​$104.02 ​as resistance.​​

Also, we have a new resistance trendline at $101.99 ( see amber line - ​first chart below ).

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $97.49 as support and $104.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.85 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.35 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.35 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.05 ​​max $103.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.85 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.35 but above $100.85 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.85 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.41.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 22 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.00 - $101.40 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.58 and $100.09 Resistance :​​ $101.44 and $101.99

Sep 22  D-Day for First Weekend iPhone Sales ?

All eyes on the release this morning that should come around at 8.30...

Interesting read:
​​​Expectations For Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Are Muted. Set Up To Beat?

​​​​On the chart below, you can see the previous 3 years First Weekend iPhone
​Sales Apple Shares Price which is normalize at Annoucement date at 100.
In 2012, it was September 23, September 24 in 2012 and October 17 in 2011.
​​
What we see on average is that peak price is reached at the event date - in
​our case will be September 22 and fall after that...
​​
Chart of Apple Shares Price Normalize at 100 on Event Days
( 2011 to 2013 )​
​​​​​​​​​
For now, that 20 DMA is my guide technically speaking ( now at $100.86 )...

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.86 hold for today.​

​​We have a new uptrend channel with $101.08 as support and ​$103.47 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed below the 20 DMA on September 19 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be well above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 2.03 from September 15 low of 1.75 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.00 to -0.28 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We have an uptrend channel that started on September 16 with $101.08 as support and ​$103.47 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $97.49 as support and $104.51 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.90 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.90 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.86 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.90 but above $100.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.89.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 19 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.40 - $102.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.86 and $100.09 Resistance :​​ $101.44 and $101.80

MACRO LEVELS
​​​​​​Support : $96.14 and $98.30 Resistance :​​ $103.74 and $105.53

Sep 19

On the chart below, you can see the previous 3 years First Weekend iPhone
​Sales Apple Shares Price which is normalize at Annoucement date at 100.
In 2012, it was September 23, September 24 in 2012 and October 17 in 2011.
​​
What we see on average is that peak price is reached at the event date - in
​our case will be September 22 and fall after that...
​​
Chart of Apple Shares Price Normalize at 100 on Event Days
( 2011 to 2013 )​

​​For now, that 20 DMA is my guide technically speaking ( now at $100.84 )...

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.84 hold for today.​

​​We have a new uptrend channel with $100.53 as support and ​$102.93 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.92 from September 15 low of 1.75 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.17 to 0.00 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We have an uptrend channel that started on September 16 with $100.53 as support and ​$102.93 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.95 as support and $103.97 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.84 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.93 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.93 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.84 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.93 but above $100.84 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.84 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.89.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 18 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.40 - $102.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.52 and $101.11 Resistance :​​ $102.35 and $102.93
​​​​​

​​​Sep 18  The 20 DMA Tested Again ?


We did tested and closed again above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​on September 17 then at $100.72 ( now at $100.78 ).​​

For now, that 20 DMA is my guide technically speaking...​​

The FED meeting now behind us, it will retrieve some volatility...​​

But do not be misled here...​

​​Volatility will still prevail on the trading of Apple Shares. SP500 Futures
​turned bullish on September 16 and expectations on the week end sales ​of
​​the iPhone6 are trough the sky. Do not forget that China will not be in
​those numbers.​​

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.78 hold for today.​

​​We have a new very steep uptrend channel with $102.27 as support and ​$104.63 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.94 from September 15 low of 1.75 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.45 to -0.27 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We have a new very steep uptrend channel that started on September 16 with $102.27 as support and ​$104.63 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.95 as support and $103.97 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.78 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.78 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.78 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $103.05 but above $100.78 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.78 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.89.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 17 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.40 - $102.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.44 and $101.11 Resistance :​​ $102.19 and $102.78
​​​

​​Sep 17 The 20 DMA Test ?

After the failed wedge on September 15 and the gap down of the China
​news on September 16, a few technical comments here:

1) We did test the bottom of a previous bull channel and rebounded
( ​see 1st chart below )
2) We did closed above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September
16 then at $100.64 ( now at $100.72 ).​​
​​​3) Relative Volatility rose on the late rebound - a good sign.

​​All that to say that with that shake out, Apple Shares behave quite - well.
But do not be misled here...​

​​Volatility will still prevail on the trading of Apple Shares. SP500 Futures turned bullish on September 16 and expectations on the week end sales ​of ​the iPhone6 are trough the sky. Do not forget that China will not be in
​those numbers.​​ Also, the FED meeting release today will add to volatility a lot especially IF they drop the considerable time on keeping low Fed rates...

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.72 hold for today.​

​​We broke on September 15 a very steep uptrend channel with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility finally rose to 1.94 from September 15 low of 1.75 ( with weaker prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.45 to -0.27 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore within a very steep uptrend channel that started on September 9 with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.95 as support and $103.97 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.78 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.64 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $103.05 but above $100.64 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.58.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 16 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $99.60 - $101.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.72 and $100.09 Resistance :​​ $101.44 and $102.19

​​Sep 16

​My Failed Rising Wedge ?

​​Yesterday I wrote about a rising wedge: we did trade above the resistance
trendline then at $102.78 and closed below the support trendline then at
$102.57 ( see 1st chart below - ellipse - bottom of the channel as the support
​trendline ​and the amber line as the resistance trendline​​ ) . That tells me that
​we will ​not have a direct bullish impulse but at best a choppy grinding kind
​of market...​​​

​​​​I was quite surprise that with that press release on Apple, we did not even
​challenge the previous high of $103.74 - high expectations already built in?

​​We did close again above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on Sep 15 at
$100.64​.

Volatility will still prevail on the trading of Apple Shares. SP500 Futures turned bearish on September 12​ and expectations on the week end sales ​of ​the iPhone6 are trough the sky. Do not forget that China will not be in
​those numbers.​​ Also, the FED meeting release tomorrow will add to volatility a lot especially IF they drop the considerable time on keeping low Fed rates...

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.64 hold for today.​

​​We broke on September 15 a very steep uptrend channel with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 1.75 from September 3rd high of 2.61 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.32 to -0.45 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore within a very steep uptrend channel that started on September 9 with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.95 as support and $103.97 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.64 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.78 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.74 ​​max $104.49 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.64 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $103.05 but above $100.64 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.64 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.58.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 15 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.10 - $102.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.44 and $101.08 Resistance :​​ $102.57 and $103.05


​​​Sep 15  My Rising Wedge ?


​​We have a Daily Rising Wedge ( see 1st chart below - bottom of the channel
as the support trendline and the amber line as the resistance trendline​​ )
​with $​102.57 as support and $102.78 as resistance. ​​Most of the time, that
​technical ​set up is bearish... So a daily close below $102.57 will be a first
​sign of reversal.. ​Let s wait at which level we close today...

​​We did close again above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on Sep 12 at
$100.46​.

Volatility will still prevail on the trading of Apple Shares. SP500 Futures
​turned bearish on September 12​ and expectations on the week end sales
​of ​the iPhone6 are trough the sky. Do not forget that China will not be in
​those numbers.​​

So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as ​long as $100.46 hold for today.​

​​We are within a very steep uptrend channel with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 1.92 from September 3rd high of 2.61 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.0 to -0.32 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a very steep uptrend channel that started on September 9 with $102.57 as support and ​$109.50 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.95 as support and $103.97 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.46 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.78 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.78 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.20 ​​max $103.74 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.46 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.78 but above $100.46 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.46 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​39 max $98.58.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 12 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.10 - $102.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.08 and $100.70 Resistance :​​ $102.17 and $102.78

​​Sep 12  A Step by Step Mode ?

​By closing above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September 10, the
wind have turned to a bullish stance for Apple Shares. But do not be misled
here; it will be a step by step kind of market.

What I mean by that is that Apple Shares will continue the bull process
but with some air pockets on the way...​​​​​ Volatility will still prevail.
We have a final seasonal bullish impulse on the SP500 Futures til
September 20; after that, a major correction on the way...​​

​​So from a consolidation mode on September 9, we shift to a bullish mode as
​long as $100.25 hold for today.​

​​We are within a very steep uptrend channel with $100.88 as support and ​$107.90 ​as resistance.​​

I don t know if you noticed, but the support level of the weekly channel is $96.32 and we did trade a low of $96.14 on September 9 and rebounded from there​; See 2nd chart below.

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 1.98 from September 3rd high of 2.61 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.23 to 0.00 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a very steep uptrend channel that started on September 9 with $100.88 as support and ​$107.90 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.32 as support and $103.37 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.78 ​​max $103.20 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.25 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $102.17 but above $100.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​58 max $97.79.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 11 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.70 - $101.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.70 and $100.25 Resistance :​​ $101.50 and $102.17

​​Sep 11  My Broken 20 DMA ?

​Yesterday I wrote: ​Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price
​shift and will make all ​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​
​​We did finally break the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September 10
at ​$99.79.​ That should bring some momentum players...

​So from a consolidation mode, we shift to a bullish mode as long as $99.42
hold for today.​

​​We are within a new uptrend channel with $99.42 as support and ​$106.34
​as resistance.​​

I don t know if you noticed, but the support level of the weekly channel is $96.32 and we did trade a low of $96.14 and rebounded from there​; See 2nd chart below.

Also, I must say that we closed above the 20 DMA on September 10 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​
​( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 1.95 ( with strongerer prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.41 to 0.23 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on September 9 with $99.42 as support and ​$106.34 ​as resistance.​​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.32 as support and $103.37 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.79 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $101.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $101.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.17 ​​max $103.08 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$99.42 to iAm in a Bullish Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $101.50 but above $99.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$98.​58 max $97.79.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 10 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.00 - $101.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.04 and $99.79 Resistance :​​ $101.11 and $101.50

​​Sep 10  Still Into Consolidation Phase ?

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​A daily close below $99.69 but above $97.07 will mean ​for
​me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
We did closed at $97.99...
​​
​​Not much have changed for me; we are still caught within the 2 DMAs
( Day Moving Average ): ( 20 DMA at $99.79 - 50 DMA at $97.19 ).

Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​

Relative Volatility crashed telling me that weak hands are out...​

We are within a downtrend channel with $95.87 as support and ​$100.48 as resistance.​​
Also, overlap uptrend channel with $98.31 support and $100.62 as resistance.​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.79 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode on September 4 as long as $97.19 hold.​

Also, I must say that we closed below the 50 DMA on September 8 on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility still be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility crashed to 2.02 ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.03 to 0.41 ): Usually a negative correlation bring a bullish pattern for Apple Shares.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $95.87 as support and ​$100.48 as resistance. Also, an overlap uptrend channel that started on September 4 with $98.31 resistance and $100.62 support.​ ​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.32 as support and $103.37 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.19 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.79 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.79 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.19 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.79 but above $97.19 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.19 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 9 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.80 - $98.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.19 and $96.80 Resistance :​​ $97.79 and $98.58

​​​​Sep 9 D-Day for Apple SE ?

Today is D-Day for Apple SE ( Special Event ). Live video at 10am PDT

​​The option market ( 98 straddle Sep 12 ) is pricing a 4.3% move.
So with yesterday s close at 98.36 then $94.17 to $102.55 expected range.

​​Not much have changed for me; we are still caught within the DMAs
( Day Moving Average ): ( 20 DMA at $99.69 - 50 DMA at $97.07 )
​but I think we will challenge seriously the 20 DMA today.​​

Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​

Do not forget the SE ( Special Event ) today.​​ My research of the week-end( RV Going Through the Roof ? ) mention some risks for the SE:​ Not only expectations are high for new products ( iWatch, mobile Payments, iPad Air 2)but for me the timing of availability of those products are crucial in managing these expectations...​​​​

We are within a downtrend channel with $96.34 as support and ​$100.98 as resistance.​​
Also, overlap uptrend channel with $98.32 support and $101.67 resistance.​
​A new and third uptrend channel with $98.18 support and $100.49 resistance.

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.69 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode on September 4 as long as $97.07 hold.​

Also, I must say that we closed below the 50 DMA on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility will be insane this afternoon.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to near the high ever 2.39 vs 2.80 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from -0.06 to -0.03 ): Usually a negative correlation bring a bullish pattern for Apple Shares.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $96.34 as support and ​$100.98 as resistance. Also, an overlap uptrend channel that started on September 4 with $98.32 resistance and $101.67 support.​ ​A new and third uptrend channel that strated on Sep 2 with $98.18 support and $100.49 resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.32 as support and $103.37 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.07 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.69 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.69 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$98.18 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.69 but above $97.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 8 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.80 - $102.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.58 and $97.79 Resistance :​​ $99.39 and $100.09


​​​​Sep 8  Still Caught Between the DMAs ?

​​Not much have changed for me; we are still caught within the DMAs
( Day Moving Average ): ( 20 DMA at $99.51 - 50 DMA at $96.92 )
​but I think we will challenge seriously the 20 DMA today.​​

Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​

Do not forget the SE ( Special Event ) tomorrow.​​ My research of the week-end
( RV Going Through the Roof ? ) mention some risks for the SE:​ Not only
expectations are high for new products ( iWatch, mobile Payments, iPad Air 2)
but for me the timing of availability of those products are crucial in managing
these expectations...​​​​

We are within a downtrend channel with $96.88 as support and ​$101.56 as resistance.​​
Also, overlap uptrend channel with $98.83 resistance and $101.15 support.​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.51 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode on September 4 as long as $96.92 hold.​

Also, I must say that we are testing the 50 DMA on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ and rebounding from it is good technically speaking ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE. Especially that the SP500 Futures are now within a tiny correction phase, it will add to the already very volatile Apple Shares...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to near the high ever 2.52 vs 2.80 ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.42 to -0.06 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $96.88 as support and ​$101.56 as resistance. Also, an overlap uptrend channel that started on September 4 with $98.83 resistance and $101.15 support.​

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $96.32 as support and $103.37 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.92 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.51 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.51 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$98.83 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.51 but above $96.92 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.92 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 5 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $98.80 - $100.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.83 and $98.58 Resistance :​​ $99.51 and $100.09

​​​​Sep 5  Caught Between the DMAs ?


​​Apple Shares did try to get over the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) yesterday
( then at $99.13 ) but failed to do so.​ It did also test yesterday ​ in the
​pre-market trading session the 50 DMA ( then at $96.59 ).

I think Apple Shares will be caught between those two DMA s for a few
​sessions​​​ with still a lot of volatility ( 20 DMA at $99.29 - 50 DMA at $96.75 )
for today.​
​​
Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​

We are within a downtrend channel with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.29 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode yesterday as long as $96.75 hold.​

Also, I must say that we are testing the 50 DMA on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE. Especially that the SP500 Futures are now within a tiny correction phase, it will add to the already very volatile Apple Shares...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to near the high ever 2.44 vs 2.80 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.15 to 0.42 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.29 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.29 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.45 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.29 but above $96.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.50 - $99.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.79 and $97.45 Resistance :​​ $98.58 and $99.29

​​Sep 4 From Euphoria Phase to a Reality Check ?


​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​The past few sessions have been the ​Apple Fever story
​just before the ​SE ( Special Event ) due September 9. But now, with that run
​up, we are getting near the Euphoria Phase as the daily and weekly channel
​have been broken ( see charts below ).​​​

​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

​​Now that we did have a closing session below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving
​Average ) : Technical Observation of the Day , I do not see why we should
​not test or getting near the 50 DMA now at $96.59 ( including the pre-market
trading session - price at time of writing is $97.10 ).​

Breaking it or not will make all the difference in the next price scenario.​​

We are within a new downtrend channel with $97.98 as support and ​$102.65 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.13 ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to near the high ever 2.57 vs 2.80 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.52 to 0.15 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $97.98 as support and ​$102.65 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.59 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.13 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.98 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.58 ​​max $99.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$97.98 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.98 but above $96.59 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.59 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $98.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.59 Resistance :​​ $97.98 and $98.58

​​​Sep 3  From Apple Fever to Euphoria Phase ?


​​The past few sessions have been the ​Apple Fever story just before the
​SE ( Special Event ) due September 9.

But now, with that run up, we are getting near the Euphoria Phase as the
daily and weekly channel have been broken ( see charts below ).​​​

​​In my special research of the week end on that ( APPLE Volatility Technicals
​- High Expectations Already ? ), I say that this year, the expectations
already priced into the RV ( Realtive Volatility ) is at his highest compare to
​the​ previous three years.

​​​​​​​​​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: SE ​Rumours, ​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks. ​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are within a new uptrend channel ( overlap ) with $103.42 as support and ​$105.26 as resistance.​​
​Also, we have an uptrend channel with $101.65 as support and ​$103.56 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 103.42 level for that Euphoria Phase to continue.
​We need a daily close above the 101.65 level for that Bullish Trend to continue. Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.55 to 0.52 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.65 as support and $103.56 as resistance.

Also, ​​we are within a new uptrend channel ( overlap ) that started on August 27 with $103.42 as support and ​$105.26 as resistance.​​
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.10 ​​max $104.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.65 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.56 but above $101.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​70 max $99.32.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $103.00 - $104.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $103.42 and $102.72 Resistance :​​ $104.10 and $104.51

​​Sep 2  Apple Fever Before SE ?


Apple Fever is rising just before the SE ( Special Event ) due September 9.

​​In my special research of the week end on that ( APPLE Volatility Technicals
​- High Expectations Already ? ), I say that this year, the expectations
already priced into the RV ( Realtive Volatility ) is at his highest compare to
​the​ previous three years.

​​​​​​​​​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: SE
​Rumours, ​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks.
​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are still within an uptrend channel with $101.42 as support and ​$103.34 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 101.42 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.55 to 0.55 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.42 as support and $103.34 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.34 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.96 ​​max $104.29 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.42 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.34 but above $101.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​70 max $99.32.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.50 - $103.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $102.50 and $102.17 Resistance :​​ $103.56 and $103.96

​​August 29  Still into That Uptrend Channel ?

​​​Yesterday close above the $102.17 put us back into the bullish camp.
But do not be mislead. Firday, end of the month, outperformance of
Apple Shares over SP500 this month will bring a lot of volatility.
It will be a trader dream kind of market.​​​​

​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: Rumours,
​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks.
​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are still within an uptrend channel with $101.18 as support and
​$103.12 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 101.18 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up a lot getting around Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.65 to 0.55 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.18 as support and $103.12 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.41 ​​max $103.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.18 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.12 but above $101.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.32.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.00 - $103.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $102.17 and $101.56 Resistance :​​ $102.78 and $103.12
​​August 28  Puzzled ?


​​Yesterday rumour of the iWatch launch caught the market by surprise,
including me. I am a little puzzled because we did have a close a tiny
higher then my resistance level ( ​​$102.06 vs daily close at $102.13 ).

The fact that the SP500 trigger a correction phase put me in a situation
where we should be cautious. Now, three main factors are driving​​​
the price of Apple Shares: Rumours, bullish Counter Trend Behavior​
and bearish Correlation Risks. That tells me that volatility will increase.​

​​I will stick another day with the tiny correction mode and need a daily close
​below $102.17 for that to unfold for today.

We are within a new uptrend channel with $100.92 as support and $102.90 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close below the 102.17 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a bullish mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stroner prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.82 to 0.65 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $100.92 as support and $102.90 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.92 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.57 ​​max $102.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$102.17 to iAm in a Tiny Correction Mode...

​A daily close below $102.17 but above $100.92 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.92 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.54.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.90 - $102.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.50 and $101.28 Resistance :​​ $102.17 and $102.57

​​August 27 The Broken Uptrend Channel ?


​Yestreday I wrote: Already the Red Candle at the top yesterday do not look
​good on a daily basis.​​​​​

​​And yesterday, we broke an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 101.45 as support ( Daily close was $100.89 ), triggering the tiny
​correction ​phase towards $99.​95 max $99.32 for now.

We need a daily close below the 102.06 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a bullish mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.96 to 0.82 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $102.06 as ​support and $104.29 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.95 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.06 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.06 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.66 ​​max $102.96 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$102.06 to iAm in a Tiny Correction Mode...

​A daily close below $102.06 but above $99.95 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.95 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​54 max $99.32.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 26 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.60 - $101.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.86 and $100.58 Resistance :​​ $101.50 and $102.17
​​

August 26  The Uptrend Channel in Jeopardy ?


​​We are still evolving within an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 101.45 as support and 103.70 as resistance for today.

That will dictate the price action for Apple Shares.
Already the Red Candle at the top yesterday do not look good on a daily basis.​​​​​

We need a daily close above the 101.45 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be in a corrective mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.96 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $101.45 as ​support and $103.70 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance.See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.45 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.96 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.96 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.20 ​​max $103.75 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.45 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $102.96 but above $101.45 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.45 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​58 max $99.54.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.60 - $102.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.28 and $100.58 Resistance :​​ $102.17 and $102.66

​​August 25 The Uptrend Channel ?


We are still evolving within an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 100.94 as support and 103.17 as resistance for today.

That will dictate the price action for Apple Shares.​​​​

We need a daily close above the 100.94 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be in a corrective mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.98 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $100.94 as ​support and $103.17 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, a broken uptrend channel that started on the week of July 14 with $93.97 as support and $99.07 as resistance. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.25 ​​max $103.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.94 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.17 but above $100.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.54.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.10 - $102.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.94 and $100.19 Resistance :​​ $102.57 and $103.17

​​August 14  Target Almost Reached ?


Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​ This is my last Daily : Back August 25.

Yesterday s technicals were quite strong; we stayed above the 20 DMA
(Day Moving ​Average) and did close above and at the resistance level
of my uptrend channel. I start to be more cautious at those levels.
​​
My target is almost reached as I wrote in the past few days:
I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily ​
​close above the 20 DMA .
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerer prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.78 to 0.87 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 7 with $94.51 as ​support and $97.52 as resistance.

Also, we have an overlap uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $96.64 as ​support and $98.07 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 14 with $93.55 as support and $98.60 as resistance. Next weel levels are $93.73 and $98.86 respectively. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.97 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $98.07 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $98.07 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.70 ​​max $99.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.97 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $98.07 but above $95.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.97 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​84 max $94.51.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 13 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $97.80 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.58 and $95.97 Resistance :​​ $97.52 and $97.88

​​​August 13  The Battle of the 20 DMA ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Two interesting things from yesterday technical:
1) We did test the 20 DMA​ (Day Moving ​Average) and did close above.
2) We had a long legged Doji:​ The long-legged doji suggests that the forces of
​supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and that a shift in the direction of
​the trend may be coming.

​I still need a close today above that 20 DMA ( now at $95.85 ) , unless it will
​tell me that we are shifting towards weak technicals​

I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily ​close above the 20 DMA .
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.61 to 0.78 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 7 with $94.23 as ​support and $97.22 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $94.13 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.13 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.22 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.22 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.45 ​​max $97.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$94.23 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.22 but above $94.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $94.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 12 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $96.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.85 and $95.61 Resistance :​​ $96.58 and $96.88


​​August 12 The Broken 20 DMA ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: The tide is turning ​for Apple Shares after being in a
​correction mode since ​July 29.
​​
Almost a textbook technical lesson in the past few sessions from Apple Shares.
​​Last Friday, we tested the 50 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at ​$93.81 and
​was rejected violently. Then yesterday we did finally have a close above the
​20 DMA.​​ ​That was technical ​strenght for me. ​

I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily
​close above the 20 DMA now at $95.82.
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.53 to 0.61 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on August 5 with $93.36 as ​support and $94.69 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $94.01 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.01 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.58 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.89 ​​max $97.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$94.01 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.58 but above $94.01 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $94.01 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $96.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.82 and $95.17 Resistance :​​ $96.58 and $96.89

​​​August 11  The 50 DMA Test ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Last Friday, we tested the 50 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at ​$93.81 and
​was rejected violently. That was technical ​strenght for me. ​The tide is turning
​for Apple Shares after being in a correction mode since ​July 29.

We are near challenging the resistance of the downtrend channel at $94.88
and it will give that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the
​$97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerker prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.94 to 0.53 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within of a downtrend channel that started on August 5 with $93.56 as ​support and $94.88 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.89 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.56 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.95 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.56 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $94.88 but above $93.56 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.56 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.70 - $95.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.71 and $94.10 Resistance :​​ $95.17 and $95.84

​​August 8  The 20 DMA Rejection ?


​​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday , we did finally reached the 20 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at
​$95.89 and was rejected violently. That was technical ​weakness for me.
​The SP500 is in a correction mode and also in a downtrend channel, and
the same​ for Apple Shares; IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.82 ) ,
​then from a ​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are into a new downtrend channel but ONLY a daily close today above
​$95.08 ​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test
​​back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.95 to 0.94 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still taking accont of a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $91.01 as ​support and $93.69 as resistance. Also, we have a brand new downtrend channel with $ $93.72 as support and $95.08 as resistance.​
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.82 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.82 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.08 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.08 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.95 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.08 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.08 but above $93.82 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.82 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 7 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.50 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.72 and $93.02 Resistance :​​ $94.10 and $94.71
​​​
August 7  A New Channel ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

One of my client yesterday asked me ( very good question indeed ) about the
​impact of the ex dividend ​date ( August 7 in our case )​​ on the technicals.
The answer is that this fact is well know and already embedded in the price
action - so no adjustment for me.​​

Yesterday , again, we did not even reached the the 20 DMA (Day Moving
​Average) ​then at $95.89 and faded. That was technical ​weakness for me.
​The SP500 is in a consolidation mode and also in a downtrend channel, and
the same​ for Apple Shares; IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.71 ) , then from a ​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are into a new downtrend channel ( and that change a little my technical levels ) but a daily close today above $95.30 ​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.96 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $91.74 as ​support and $94.45 as resistance.
Also, we have a brand new downtrend channel with $ $93.97 as support and $95.30 as resistance.​
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.71 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.71 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.91 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.30 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.30 but above $93.71 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.71 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 6 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.00 - $95.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.36 and $93.97 Resistance :​​ $95.30 and $95.89


​​​August 6  The Downtrend Channel ?


​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday we did not even reached the the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​then at $95.92 and tumbled on the Geo-Political headline. That was technical
​weakness for me. And because the SP500 broke a daily support, then
for Apple Shares, I am going to turn back in consolidation mode from a bullish
stance. IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.60 ) , then from a
​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $95.17
​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.91 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $92.42 as ​support and $95.17 as resistance.
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.60 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.91 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.17 but above $93.60 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 5 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.00 - $95.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.36 and $93.60 Resistance :​​ $95.17 and $95.91
​​
August 5 Next Battle: the 20 DMA ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

We are still in a bullish mode as we did close yesterday above my level
of $95.17. Counter Trend trades ( selling Apple Shares and Buying SP500 )
were the main factor of the price action yesterday.​​

The next big battle will be to close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​now at $95.92; then technicals will turn more bullish as momentum players
join the party.​

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $95.73
​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​consolidation mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.75 to 0.91 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $93.10 as ​support and $95.73 as resistance.
​​We have also an uptrend channel that started on August 1 with $95.53 as ​support and $97.35 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.45 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.81 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.73 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.73 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.62 ​​max $97.35 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $95.72 but above $95.17 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.17 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$93.​45 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 4 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.20 - $96.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.17 and $94.81 Resistance :​​ $95.92 and $96.62

August 4 Downtrend Channel in Jeopardy ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.56 to iAm in
​Bearish Mode...

We did have a close at $96.13, above my level ( then turning bullish ).
Also we did have a close last Friday above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​now at $95.94, another good technical set up.

At this point in time, it is hard to see if it is a dead cat bounce phase as the
SP500 or we resuming uptrend for Apple Shares.​

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $96.48 will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.58 to 0.75 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel with $93.83 as ​support and $96.48 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.27 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.62 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.48 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.45 ​​max $97.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.48 but above $93.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.27 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $89.65.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 1 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.90 - $97.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.94 and $95.33 Resistance :​​ $96.85 and $97.45
August 1 My New Downtrend Channel ?

​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok;
​breaking it will bring ​​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for
​today is ​​​​​​$97.75.

We did break that level yesterday, then going from a bull mode to a bear mode.​​

A correction phase into the SP500 is adding tremendous pressure to the
already all bullish players for Apple Shares.​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.54 to 0.58 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a brand new downtrend channel with $94.56 as ​support and $97.23 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.08 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.08 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.84 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.84 ​​max $96.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.56 to iAm in Bearish Mode...

​A daily close below $94.56 but above $93.08 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.08 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $89.65.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.10 - $95.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.72 and $93.08 Resistance :​​ $94.56 and $95.17
​​
July 31 Momentum is Lost ?

​​
​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: We have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st
​chart below ) now at $98.88. That level will tell us if we keep a strong
​momentum or not IF we stay above it.

So we lost the momentum and today the last day of the month could add
pressure to Apple Shares after a strong monthly outperformance and
a correction phase into the SP500.​​​​
​​​​
As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring
​​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$97.75.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $97.75 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very badmix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.06 to -0.54 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $97.75 as ​support and $100.97 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $99.58. That level will tell us if we gain back a strong momentum or not IF we are able to get back above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.44 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.15 ​​max $100.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.75 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.44 but above $97.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​42 max $95.73.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $97.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.64 and $96.42 Resistance :​​ $97.32 and $97.75
​​
July 30 Still Uptrend ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

08.49 My site is just back on - sorry for that - charts not updated
​​​​

I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$97.25.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $97.25 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.73 to 0.33 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $97.25 as ​support and $100.50 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $98.88. That level will tell us if we keep a strong momentum or not IF we stay above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.44 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.15 ​​max $100.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.25 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.44 but above $97.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​91 max $95.17.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.80 - $99.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.25 and $97.80 Resistance :​​ $99.20 and $99.44
​​​​​
​​July 29 Can we Keep the Momentum ?


Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Since July 23rd, we hap a strong upward push in the price of Apple Shares.
What will tell me today that we keep the momentum or loose it is the
$98.16 level ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ).
​​​​
I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$96.72.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $96.72 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.73 to 0.33 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $96.72 as ​support and $99.97 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $98.16. That level will tell us if we keep a strong momentum or not IF we stay above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.24 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $99.97 ​​max $100.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$96.72 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.24 but above $96.73 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​91 max $95.17.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 28 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.50 - $99.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.58 and $98.16 Resistance :​​ $99.24 and $99.97

July 28  Still into the Uptrend Channel ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

​​On the weekly Research, I did explained the two main factors are at play
that will keep volatility high for Apple Shares:
1) Counter Trend is on since July 25
2) Correlation risks are into the danger zone.​​​

I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$96.21.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $96.21 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.84 to 0.73 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $96.21 as ​support and $99.45 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.62 ​​max $99.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$96.21 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $96.21 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​88 max $93.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.00 - $98.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.10 and $96.63 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $98.62

​​​July 25 SP500 and AAPL ?


​​​Now that most of the Retail Participants and Institutionals one had the
opportunity to buy pre and post Earnings, what I fear at this point is a tiny
correction into SP500 futures the will bring some pressure ( 1976.5 broken )
​to Apple Shareseven if I think they will outperform the index. Also, the
​correlation factor add in the next few sessions for a potential correction.​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring
​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$95.65.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $95.65 becomes crucial
technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.77 to 0.84 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1976.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​


​We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.65 as ​support and $98.93 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.62 ​​max $99.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.65 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $95.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​54 max $93.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 24 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.40 - $97.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.42 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.32 and $97.88
​​​
July 24 My New Uptrend Channel ?


​​​Yesterday I was really surprise with the kind of price behavior for Apple
Shares. Like if a big fund fear to miss the iPhone 6 ride. It was strong
and agressive kind of price action. My fear of a pullback on the 20 DMA
was wrong.​​​

On the other side, Relative Volatility collapse as expected : a drop of only
17.7% compare to historical data of 27.2%.
​​
We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.17 as
​support and $98.42 as resistance.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $95.17 becomes crucial
technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.58 to 0.77 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1976.5 level today.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.17 as ​support and $98.42 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.17 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.42 ​​max $99.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $95.17 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.17 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​20 max $93.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.00 - $98.40 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $98.42
​​
July 23 The 20 DMA at Play ?

​Earnings Release on July 22 were ok but did not meet the usual high
expectations from Market Participants.: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

What I fear today is that many participants ( especially options players )
will decide to get out of Apple Shares on a short term basis.

Then, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $93.86 becomes crucial
technically speaking. IF we break it, I think we may test the bottom of the
channel now at $91.75 MAX the 50 DMA now at $91.35.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.54 to 0.58 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1968.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $91.75 as support and $94.63 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $93.39.

​​Starting to trade below $93.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.64 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $94.64 but above $93.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $91.35.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $95.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.86 and $93.39 Resistance :​​ $94.63 and $94.89
​​​​

​​​
July 22  D-Day for ER ?


​​Earnings Release on July 22 ( D-Day for ER ).

Yesterday I wrote:​
What we learned form the Weekly research ( sent yesterday ) is that the
day prior to ER is the peak in price before ER; so today July 21 IF history
repeat itsel should be the peak price for Apple Shares.​
​​
Again, Market Pre-Opening is already well bid but expected to fade again today.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

One thing to remember: Relative Volatility on options on Apple Shares will
​collapse after the close today​​; trade accordingly.

We should not be too picky on technical levels prior of ER and conclude or read too much about them.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.53 to 0.54 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $91.95 as support and $94.82 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $94.32.

​​Starting to trade below $93.66 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.82 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.82 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $94.82 but above $93.66 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.66 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $91.95.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 21 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $95.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.32 and $93.72 Resistance :​​ $94.82 and $95.65
​​
July 21 ER -1 ?

​Earnings Release on July 22 ( ER -1 and counting ).

What we learned form the Weekly research ( sent yesterday ) is that the
day prior to ER is the peak in price before ER; so today July 21 IF history
repeat itsel should be the peak price for Apple Shares.​
​​
Market Pre-Opening is already above the average gain expected for today.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

We should not be too picky on technical levels prior of ER and conclude or read too much about them.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerer prices - a good mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.53 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1959.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.14 as support and $95.01 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $94.32.

​​Starting to trade below $93.51 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.01 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.01 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.01 but above $93.51 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.51 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 18 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $95.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.32 and $93.72 Resistance :​​ $95.01 and $95.65


July 18  Dead Cat Bounce ?


July 17 was the expected turning point for Apple Shares.

​​From July 16 in a total Euphoria phase til yesterday s close was a more
violent move than usual. That was in part from the​ Pre Earnings Release ( ER )
​and the news for the IBM-Apple partnership.
​​
I do expect a dead cat bounce today to $93.52 MAX​ $94.25 before
the expected consolidation - range trade phase til Earnings Release on July 22.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell strongly ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.16 to 0.66 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1947.5 level today.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​


​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.32 as support and $95.21 as resistance..
​​
We have also a resistance trendline at $94.25.

​​Starting to trade below $92.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.21 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.21 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.21 but above $92.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​35 max $90.74.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 17 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.50 - $94.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.09 and $92.57 Resistance :​​ $93.52 and $94.25
​​​
July 16 Euphoria Phase ?

​We are getting into the Euphoria Phase for Apple Shares.
Pre Earnings Release ( ER ) and yesterday news was a surprise:
​​Apple and IBM partner to launch 'made-for-business' apps

That should continue for a few more sessions ( July 17 IF history repeat -
​research last Sunday - APPLE Technicals Behavior - A Choppy Road til ER
http://www.financialiceberg.com/abetaaapl.html ) followed by a corrective
​stance til ER.​​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix - but level of RV is
extremely expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.16 to 0.78 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1964 level today.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new and steep uptrend channel that started on July 10 with ​​$95.70 as support and $98.24 as resistance

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.73 as support and $95.61 as resistance..
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.22 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $95.03 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.69 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.69 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.24 ​​max $98.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.70 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.69 but above $95.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​22 max $93.09.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 15 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.10 - $97.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.69 and $98.24

​​July 15 Full Throttle ?


​​Yesterday, it was full throttle for Apple Shares. All the technicals, seasonality
Correlation and Pre- Earnings Release ( ER ) Fever was in the air.

That should continue for a few more sessions ( July 17 IF history repeat -
​research last Sunday - APPLE Technicals Behavior - A Choppy Road til ER
http://www.financialiceberg.com/abetaaapl.html ) followed by a corrective
​stance til ER.​​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix - but level of RV is
extremely expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.38 to -0.16 ).
​​​​Negative Correlation should bring Apple ​Shares in a phase ​​of ​outperforming the SP500 ​as history ​suggest.
Also,​ as we know now, Seasonalities are bullish in an Q3 Earnings Realeases til July 17.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new and steep uptrend channel that started on July 10 with ​​$95.55 as support and $97.56 as resistance

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.93 as support and $95.81 as resistance..

Also, a support trendline is for today at $94.37 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.21 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.89 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.89 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.56 ​​max $98.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.55 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.89 but above $95.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​21 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 14 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $97.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.81 and $95.55 Resistance :​​ $96.89 and $97.56
​​​
July 14 Finally a Bullish Signal ?

​Last Friday I wrote:
We have now a new resistance trendline with $95.15 as the level for today.​
​Also, we are within a new downtrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.15 level will turn me bullish, unless still into consolidation.

We did close above that level ( $95.22 ), then turning bullish.​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.31 to -0.38 ).
​​​​Negative Correlation should bring Apple ​Shares in a phase ​​of ​outperforming the SP500 ​as history ​suggest.
Also,​ as we know now, Seasonalities are bullish in an Q3 E arnings Realeases til July 17.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $93.12 as support and $96.03 as resistance..

Also, a support trendline is for today at $94.76 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.23 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.03 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.03 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.80 ​​max $97.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.05 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.03 but above $95.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.05 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​23 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.50 - $96.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.55 and $95.05 Resistance :​​ $96.03 and $96.80

​​​July 11 Near a Bullish Signal ?


​​​What have changed since July 7 is that the SP500 index went from a bullish
stance to a correction mode. I think Apple Shares will follow that pattern
but will ouperform the Index.​​

We have now a new resistance trendline with $95.15 as the level for today.​
​Also, we are within a new downtrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.15 level will keep me bullish, unless back into consolidation.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with strongerer prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.18 to -0.31 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1952 level today.

​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $93.32 as support and $96.20 as resistance..

Also, a new trendline resistance is for today at $95.15 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.21 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.80 ​​max $97.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to break above on a daily close ​$95.15 to iAm in Bullish Mode from a consolidation phase...

​A daily close below $96.20 but above $95.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​21 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 10 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.20 - $96.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.76 and $94.21 Resistance :​​ $95.55 and $96.20

​​July 10 Consolidation Phase ?


​​​What have changed since July 7 is that the SP500 index went from a bullish
stance to a correction mode. I think Apple Shares will follow that pattern
but will ouperform the Index.​​

​We are now into an adjusted uptrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.70 level will keep me bullish, unless back into consolidation,
which in fact I think we are already into.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to 0.18 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1951 level today.



​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into an adjusted uptrend channel that started on June 30 with $95.70 as support and $98.00 as resistance..

We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.19.

​​Starting to trade below $94.19 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.43 ​​max $97.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.70 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.80 but above $95.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​19 max $93.09.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.50 - $95.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.19 and $93.92 Resistance :​​ $95.36 and $95.70


​​​July 9  Still Bullish ?


The surprise yesterday was the break down of the SP500 futures at the
​1964.5 level. With low liquidity, the market had some crazy behavior
like into Apple Shares. It ain t over yet.​

We are now into an adjusted uptrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.00 level will keep me bullish.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.78 to 0.41 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1952 level today.
​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into an adjusted uptrend channel that started on June 30 with $95.00 as support and $97.43 as resistance..

We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.16.

​​Starting to trade below $95.00 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.43 ​​max $97.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.00 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.80 but above $95.00 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.00 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​16 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.70 - $96.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.00 and $94.76 Resistance :​​ $95.70 and $95.99

​​​
July 8 Break Out ?


​​I was wrong in my technical set up. We went direct on a break out mode
instead of a pullback to the 20 DMA and rebound from there in which
scenario technicals will be for a longer bullish pattern.​​

Breaking the $94.12 resistance level yesterday exceeded my bullish
impulse level by reaching $95.99.

I did underestimate the Counter Trend strenght at this point in time.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a corrective
​mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.83 to 0.78 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1964.5 level today.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We broke yesterday the $94.12 resistance and I wrote yesterday: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $95.05 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.67 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.67 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.10 ​​max $97.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.05 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.67 but above $95.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.05 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​76 max $94.10.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 7 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.30 - $96.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.99 and $95.30 Resistance :​​ $96.67 and $97.10

​​​
July 7  Follow the Range Still ?

​We are still evolving within that consolidation channel $93.18 support
and near challenging the adjusted $94.12 resistance level.​

I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction​ ​in the
​next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.26 and rebounding
from it will be the best technical scenario at this point in time​.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break
​out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.85 to 0.83 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1970.5 level.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July​​ 1 with $93.18 support and $94.12 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $92.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.18 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.12 but above $93.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​26 max $91.45.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 3 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.20 - $94.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.18 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.10 and $94.76

​​July 3 Follow the Range


​​So the ​Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern we had on July 1st was a sign that
​we needed a pause / tiny consolidation before resuming uptrend.

I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction​ ​in the
​next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.18.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​Trend
​​is ​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break
​out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.74 to 0.85 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July​​ 1 with $93.07 support and $94.05 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $92.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.07 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.05 but above $93.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​18 max $91.45.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.20 - $94.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.07 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.05 and $94.76

​​July 2 My Long-Legged Doji ?

Yestreday I wrote that we were getting near the end of the Euphoria phase.
We had yesterday a ​Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern: The long-legged doji
​suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and
​that a shift in the direction of the trend may be coming.

The break of the 20 DMA ​​​​bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
​players. Now that we re all aboard the train,​ I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.11.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.38 to 0.74 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into a new steep uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $93.70 as support and $95.70 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $92.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.07 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.07 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.11 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.07 but above $92.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​45 max $90.70.

​Apple shares performed as the SP500 on July 1 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.10 - $94.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.04 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.07 and $94.76

​​​July 1 Euphoria Phase Near Over ?

We had quite a turnaround since the bottom of $89.65 reached on Juned 25.
​We broke the downtrend channel, came back above the 20 DMA (Day Moving
​Average) on June 27 ( now at $91.99 ) and we came back also on the 20 DMA
on the ratio of Apple Shares vs SP500.​ ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).

We can t ingnore also month end rebalancing and Counter Trend that did help
​Apple Shares indeed.

The break of the 20 DMA ​​​​bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
​players. Now that we re all aboard the train,​ I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA at $91.99.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a range trade mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.44 to 0.38 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate IF SP500 futures break the 1943 level and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.


​​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $92.75 as support and $94.70 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $91.99 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $93.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$91.99 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $93.88 but above $91.99 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.99 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​45 max $90.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.30 - $93.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.75 and $92.30 Resistance :​​ $93.57 and $93.73


​​​June 30  Month End and the 20 DMA ?


​​​Last Friday I wrote:
So I consider having met my bullish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.​​​
We did have a close at $91.98, so above the 20 DMA that should bring
some momentum players.​ A close today above the 20 DMA is a must
to keep those new momentum players into the game.​

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​. ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today. Momentum players on one side
​and some month end effect ( profit taking ) for some participants should bring
​some volatility at the beginning and near the end of the trading session.​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a verygood mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a range trade mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.19 to 0.44 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1938 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into an overlap channel that started on June 16 with $91.00 as support and $92.30 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.75 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.75 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$90.77 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.75 but above $90.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $89.96.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 27 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.30 - $92.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.36 and $90.77 Resistance :​​ $92.30 and $92.75

​​June 27  Next Battle: the 20 DMA


​​Yesterday I wrote:
I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares.​ I need a daily close above
​$90.91 ​to turn bullish, unless still ​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of
​slippage continue.

So I consider having met my bulish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.​​​

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​. ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.29 to 0.19 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish yesterday.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1936 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $87.85 as support and $91.35 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 25 with $89.96 as support and $91.21 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.96 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.76 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.76 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$89.96 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $91.76 but above $89.96 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.96 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$88.​93 max $87.95.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 26 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.20 - $91.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.37 and $89.96 Resistance :​​ $91.35 and $91.76


​​​June 26 Still into the Channel


We are still evolving within a tiny downtrend channel with $89.28 support
and $90.91 as resistance. I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares.​

​​​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $90.91 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ and near testing the 50 DMA on that ratio - a bad omen indeed.
​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.43 to -0.29 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.20 as support and $91.50 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.28 as support and $90.91 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.28 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$90.90 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $90.90 but above $89.28 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.28 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$88.​93 max $87.95.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $89.65 - $90.90 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.19 and $89.65 Resistance :​​ $90.90 and $91.30

​​June 25 My 20 DMA Rejected ?

We did again tested yesterday the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at ​$91.69 )
​and it was rejected violently. We did trade as high of $91.74 and fade
​thereafter to close below the 20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed.​​

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $91.70 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.44 to -0.43 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.50 as support and $91.80 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.70 as support and $91.30 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.70 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$91.70 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $91.70 but above $89.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$89.​41 max $88.93.

​Apple shares performed as the SP500 on June 24 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $89.40 - $90.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $89.75 and $89.41 Resistance :​​ $90.87 and $91.30

​​June 24  My 20 DMA ?

Yesterday we had our Dead Cat Bounce. I was targeting towards
the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80.
We did trade as high of $91.62 and fade thereafter to close below the
20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed.​​ ( Now at $91.64 ).

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.10 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.
​​

​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to -0.44 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.80 as support and $92.10 as resistance.​

Also, we are not anymore into a consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.16 support and $92.45 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.45 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.45 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.10 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.10 but above $90.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$89.​75 max $89.10.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.00 - $91.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.36 and $89.75 Resistance :​​ $91.25 and $91.64

​​June 23 Dead Cat Bounce ?

​Last Friday, in the last 10 minutes of the trading session, Apple Shares went
from $91.46 to $90.90 - option related. I expect a dead cat bounce towards
the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80 today. A closing
​above the 20 DMA will be more constructive technically speaking but still
​into a consolidation mode.​ Next potential target then, the upper channel at
​$​92.50.

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.50 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.

​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1942 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.01 to -0.41 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.10 as support and $92.45 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.20 support and $92.50 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.50 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.50 but above $91.20 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.20 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​36 max $89.10.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 20 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance :​​ $91.80 and $92.30

​​June 20 Still into the Consolidation Channel ?

​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.56 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode.

​So, IF a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that bullish scenario and we
​will go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$92.75 and $93.50 ​for now.

We broke yesterday the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.


​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to 0.01 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.40 as support and $92.75 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.26 support and $92.56 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $91.26 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​36 max $89.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 19 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.90 - $92.80 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.28 and $90.87 Resistance :​​ $92.07 and $92.30

June 19  Consolidation Channel ?


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.70 as support and $93.00 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.30 support and $92.60 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $91.02 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.60 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.60 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.60 but above $91.02 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.02 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $89.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 18 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.80 - $93.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04
​​
June 18 Still Resuming Uptrend ?

​Not much have changed since yesterday for me. We did retest the $92.70
​zone and failed but we did not make a new low compare to the previous close.
​A painful grind but still in the good direction and still into the Resuming
​Uptrend Phase.

​So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
​go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$93.30 ​for now.
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.


​​​I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get back to average.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish ​scenario, unless still into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.78 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $90.00 as support and $93.30 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new uptrend channel that started on June ​13 with $92.27 support and $93.85 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 17 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04
​​
June 17 Resuming Uptrend ?

​Yesterday for me was the final test of the Retail Players.
​Tehnically speaking, we did not make a new low ( vs earlier day close ),
we tested ​the $92.75 level and failed but did not pullback tremendously.

So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
​go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$93.60 ​for now.
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.

​​​​​I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get back to average.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless still into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.66 ). ​​​

​​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.00 as support and $93.60 as resistance.​

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish
​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the
​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 16 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.375 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04

​​​
June 16  My Broken Channel ?

Today s is the critical phase for the Retail Players.

The opening price last Monday morning ( June 9 ) was $91.75 and the closing
​price ​last Friday ( June 13 ) was $91.28.​​ That tells me that all the retail
​buying ​is now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the
​saloons door ​experiment.​​
​​
​​We still can see a follow through of that capitulation phase today, because
​the difference between last ​June 9 and now, is that the SP500 is into a
​correction mode...​​ $90.10 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...​

Only a daily close above the $92.56 level will cancel that risk.​​

​​​​​I still expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1929 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.64 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.30 as support and $93.90 as resistance.​

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish
​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the
​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 13 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.40 - $91.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance :​​ $91.75 and $92.56

​​June 13  Saloons Door Experiment?


​​​Yesterday I wrote: I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is
​behind us and that hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their
​holdings.​​​​The past two sessions was a real roller coaster​ and I think it will
​be ​the same today.

So the opening price Monday morning was $91.75 and the closing price
​yesterday was $92.29.​​ That tells me that almost all the retail buying is
now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the saloons
door experiment.​​

We can see a huge capitulation today, because the difference between last
​Monday and now, is that the SP500 is into a correction mode...​​
$89.75 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...​

One fact that still seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - ​​​​see 3rd chart below.

So we broke the $93.15 level, turning into a consolidation, even a potential
​capitulation mode.

​​​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $93.04 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless into consolidation ​mode.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1936.5 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.78 to 0.66 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $91.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $93.04 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.04 ​will give us another ​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.90 ​​max $94.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$93.04 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $93.04 but above $91.25 will mean for me that we are ​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​69 max $89.74.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 12 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.25 and $90.69 Resistance :​​ $92.02 and $92.77

​​June 12 The ET Experiment - Final Coundown ?
​​
We are going into the Final Countdown of the ET Experiment. ET stand for
​Euphoria ​phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. ​​Yesterday was a real roller
coaster​ and I think it will be the same today.

One fact that seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - ​​​​see 3rd chart below.

I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is behind us and that
hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their holdings.
​​​​
You can tell me that we did close above my critical $93.40 level yesterday
and today will be the same game plan but with a tiny change - my level is
​now $93.15. On the other side​​, the kind of volatility in Apple Shares AND NOT
​in the SP500 makes the battle of retail and institutional a major factor of
​indecision, technically speaking.

Now that most retail players have bought and they are long, today still a
​critical test: Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
​close above $93.15​​ - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.15 level​, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?​

​​​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $93.15 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.84 to 0.78 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $93.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 ​will give us another ​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.40 ​​max $95.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.15 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $95.05 but above $93.15 will mean for me that we are ​​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $90.87.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.40 and $93.15 Resistance :​​ $94.27 and $95.05
​​
June 11  The ET Experiment - part 2 ?


​​We are going into the part 2 of the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria
​phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. ​​We surely saw a lot of ​retail buying
​​into Apple Shares on June 9 and June 10; so for me the Euphoria Phase is
​over. We are now starting the test of the Timber Phase.​

Now that most have bought and they are long, today start the critical test:
Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
​close above $93.40​​ - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.40 level​, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?​

​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $92.60 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose slightly ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.83 to 0.84 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $92.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.40 ​​max $95.80 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $95.05 but above $92.60 will mean for me that we are
​​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $90.87.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 10 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.40 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.40 and $93.04 Resistance :​​ $94.27 and $95.05

​​June 10

The ET Experiment ?

​​
​​We are going into the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria phase and
Timber or Tumble thereafter. We surely saw yesterday a lot of retail buying
​into Apple Shares. That may continue 1 MAX 2 sessions into Euphoria phase.
​Then after, only long remains, the risk is to see iCahn or some hedge fund
​dumping their shares.​​​​
​​
​ThenI expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $92.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $92.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.74 to 0.83 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $92.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.69 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.69 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.94 ​​max $95.50 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.10 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.69 but above $92.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​ 87 max $89.75.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.88 and $93.04 Resistance :​​ $94.38 and $94.69
​​​​
​​​June 9  The Stock Split ?


With the stock split effective June 9 and retail participants interest plus
​potentially Icahn selling a portion ​of his holding​, I expect volatility in the
​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

I Expect Retail Players Buying into the next few sessions but the timing of
​Icahn is a lot more tougher to forecast.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $91.60 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.
​​
​​​​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $91.60 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.85 to 0.74 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $91.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.12 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.70 ​​max $95.20 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$91.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.12 but above $91.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​87 max $89.97.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 6 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.60 - $93.54 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.60 Resistance :​​ $93.04 and $93.54

​​​June 6  Expect Volatility Ahead ?

​​With the stock split looming ( will start to trade at a new price on June 9 )
and that retail participants interest plus potentially Icahn selling a portion
​of his holding​, I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.80 to 0.85 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $656.00 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $656.00 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $659.50 ​​max $662.60 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $656.00 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$622.​50 max $614.70.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 5 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $636 - $652 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $644.20 and $638.70 Resistance :​​ $652.50 and $656.00
​​​
June 5 D-Day for Apple Shares ?

​​Yesterday, we did closed above my level ( $634.80 level )​ and then changed
​the scenario from consolidation to back to bullish.

​​BUT we need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.90 to 0.80 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $653.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $653.60 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $657.10 ​​max $660.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $653.60 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$628.​20 max $622.50.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 4 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $638 - $650 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $642.20 and $638.70 Resistance :​​ $653.60 and $657.10

​​June 4  D-Day for Apple Shares ?

Well, I was astonished to see the behavior of Apple Shares yesterday. It did
closed above my level ( $634.80 level )​ and then changed the scenario
from consolidation to back to bullish.

​​​BUT we need a daily close today above that level ( $634.80 ) to stay into the
​bullish scenario, unless it will be a false signal and back into consolidation
​mode. Because of that, it s D-Day.​​​

​We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $634.80 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell again ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.98 to 0.90 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $649.00 ​​max $652.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$634.80 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $644.20 but above $634.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $634.80 will mean for me ​a risk of a more quicker and
​severe ​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$628.​20 max $622.50.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 3 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $633 - $642 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $634.80 and $631.50 Resistance :​​ $639.40 and $644.20

​​June 3 Officially in Consolidation Mode ?

We broke the $631.60 level on a daily close yesterday. What I was expecting
​since last Friday is officially confirmed. We are into a consolidation phase,
then targeting MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.

​And historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices in the WWDC week.

I am just wondering at this point in time if the consolidation will be deeper
​and more violent than expected before resuming uptrend. ( $609.90??)
​​
We are into a short term consolidation phase, as long as $634.80 hold.​​

​​​​Relative Volatility fell abruptly ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bearish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.99 to 0.98 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $620.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $634.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $634.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $636.70 ​​max $644.20 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$634.80 to iAm in Consolidation ...

​A daily close below $634.80 but above $620.20 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $620.20 will mean for me ​a risk of a more quicker and
​severe ​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$614.​70 max $609.90.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 2 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $620 - $631 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $622.50 and $614.70 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $634.80

​​June 2 The WWDC Week ?

​This is the WWDC week ( Worldwide Developers Conference ) from Apple.
​A lot of ​expectations and rumours about new products annoucement.
But historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices.​​

Last Friday we had that first consolidation warning. I think it will continue
all week long. ​​​​​​The gap up near the stock split and retail ​buying will end badly
​as Icahn will dump part of his holding.

​​​I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $631.60 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.

We are still into a short term bullish trend, as long as $631.60 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.94 to 0.99 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $649.00 ​​max $651.90 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$631.60 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $644.20 but above $631.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $631.60 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$624.​90 max $614.70 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $627 - $640 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $629.80 and $624.90 Resistance :​​ $636.90 and $639.40


​​​May 30  Runaway Train?


​​Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. And this week, it
become a runaway train. That potential scenario explained in my research
last Sunday is the leat interesting. ​​The gap up near the stock split and retail
​buying will end badly as Icahn will dump part of his holding.

But during that period, enjoy the ride...​​
​​​
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $631.90 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.


​​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $631.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.93 to 0.94 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $643.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $643.40 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $646.90 ​​max $650.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$631.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $643.40 but above $631.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $631.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$623.​80 max $614.70 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $630 - $643 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $633.80 and $631.90 Resistance :​​ $640.00 and $643.40

​​May 29  Consolidation Phase ?


Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. But indicators are
​pointing to near term overbought conditions. ​My Ultimate monthly target of
​$629.80 was reached on May 28.

And yesterday, we had a nasty candle at the top of the range...
​​​
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $623.40 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold to stay bullish.
​​
​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.91 to 0.93 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $633.40 ​​max $635.60 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 28 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $618 - $630​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $623.40 and $618.20 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $633.40

​​May 28  Near Euphoria End ?


Apple Shares are on fire. But indicators are pointing to near term overbought
conditions. ​My Ultimate monthly target of $629.80 is almost already reach.
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $621.30 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold.​

We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase( from 0.48 to 0.91 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $631.50 ​​max $635.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 27 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $621 - $630​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $621.3​0 and $618.50 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $631.50


​​​​​​May 27  Last Impulse ?

​Apple Shares are on fire. Most of the bullish factors are at play almost at the
​same time.​Today, ​I think that we will see more Counter Trend trades
​( so sellers of SP500 to buy ​Apple Shares ).

Also, since we broke the relative level on May 16 compare to the SP500,
​Apple Shares technical impulse gained in strenght. That relative performance
​must stay above the amber line level for technical strenght to continue.
​( See 2nd chart below ).​​

We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $608.60 hold.​​

​​Last week, we had a technical bullish impulse. We are getting near a huge
congestion zone​ ( $614 to $621 ) back in 2012 where I think we will
​see a pause / consolidation...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from 0.50 to 0.48 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $606.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $619.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $619.50 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $622.50 ​​max $624.40 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$608.60 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $619.50 but above $608.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $608.60 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $612 - $621​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $614.70 and $609.90 Resistance :​​ $619.50 and $622.50

​​​​​May 23  Counter Trend + Tricky Fridays ?


​​​Two contrarian factors at play.
​Today will be very tricky, like all Fridays: Usually bearish. On the other side,
​I think that we will see Counter Trend trades ( so sellers of SP500 to buy
​Apple Shares ). So a tough call but must follow the technical ​levels.

Yesterday, to have a technical bullish impulse, we needed to close above the
​$610.40 level​. Today, it is $613.60...


​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $597.30 hold.​​

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures ​​stayed broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from 0.04 to 0.50 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $613.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $613.60 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $615.90 ​​max $617.70 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $613.60 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​00 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $603 - $612​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $602.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $609.90 and $613.60


​​​May 22 Consolidation Phase Still ?

Not much have changed for me since yesterday.

​​After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
​that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
​set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. ​We need to
​stay above ​​$597.30 for that scenario...

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures ​​stayed broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from -0.21 to 0.04 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 21 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $601 - $610​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $607.30 and $610.40

​​​May 21  Consolidation Phase ?


​​​After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
​that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
​set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. ​We need to
​stay above ​​$597.30 for that scenario...

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stable prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​Futures
​​stayed in the range and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​phase( from 0.24 to -0.21 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 20 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $598 - $607​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $600.60 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $607.30 and $610.40

​​​May 20 A Trio of Broken Resistance ?


​​
​A lot of interesting technical factors happened again yesterday.
1) We did close above the resistance of $597.50 for a bullish impulse.
2) We did close above the channel resistance line ( now support at $601.50 -
see first chart below ​).
3) ​On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we broke the
​high resistance level made on December 5 2013.​

​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​Futures
​​stayed in the range and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​phase( from 0.46 to 0.24 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 19 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $601 - $611​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $610.40 and $613.90

​​​​​May 19 $597.50 Zone Being Tested?

​​A lot of interesting technical factors happened last Friday.
1) We did test the crutial level of $586.30 and rebounded strongly from there.
2) We did close at the resistance zone of $597.50 - the upper side of my range.
3) ​On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we are
challenging again the high resistance level made on December 5 2013.​

​We need to clear the $597.50 level ( trade above and stay above ) on a daily
​close to finally get out of that ​range and have the next bullish impulse..
​Unless,there still a risk of a retest​ ​of $586.40, level ​crucial to hold to stay
​into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​broke down the 1874 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​phase ( from 0.82 to 0.46 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.50 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $600.50 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.40 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.40 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.40 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 16 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $592 - $601​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $591.70 and $586.40 Resistance :​​ $597.50 and $600.50


​​​​​May 16  Need to Stay Above $586.30 ?


Same game plan here but risk of a slippage of Apple Shares are climbing.
We tested again yesterday the $597.40 zone and failed to stay above - a weak
technical sign. ​​SP500 futures did not hold the 1882 level, Correlation risks
​are in the danger zone and we are so close of the $586.30 level...​
​​
​We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
​range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a retest​
​of $586.30, level ​crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone ( from 0.63 to 0.82 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last session.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 15 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $583​ - $594​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $586.40 and $580.30 Resistance :​​ $594.20 and $597.40

​​​​​May 15 Counter Trend is Back ?

​​I think we start to saw yesterday some Countrend Trend Shifts form SP500
towards Apple Shares. ​That make them more resilient of a correction for now.
That outperformance will continue for a few sessions, even more if SP500
futures break the 1882 level.
​​
​We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
​range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a slippage
​and a retest​ of $586.30, level ​crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​fell from the 1898 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone at all ( from 0.49 to 0.63 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 14 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $587​ - $596​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $590.70 and $587.40 Resistance :​​ $597.40 and $599.40

​​May 14

Same Game Plan Here but I think that today we will go test the $586.30,
level crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

Apple Shares will outperform SP500 but with a tiny corretion expected today
for the SP500 should bring the test of $586.30​​​ for Apple Shares.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​closed above the 1883 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone at all ( from 0.41 to 0.49 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​a