FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
DAILY TECHNICALS
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
Check new pages Starting January 23rd on your E-Mail.
I discovered that some have access to my pages without paying
for my service... That the reason I have changed the pages...
On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5. Take note that the third
week of trading is usually in a choppy range trend mode ...
Also we are challenging a downward Channel that started on December 30
with 2032 resistance....
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then at 1998.5. That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2003 for today...
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then at 2019.5. That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...
Only a daily close below 2014 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
Only a daily close above 2038.5 will give us a scenario with a Bullish Impulse... Til then Stuck in the Mud...
To really give a Bullish Impulse to that market, we need Financials to be back on track. They are near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) and must hold - See Link Below...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
2) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
3) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
4) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
5) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
6) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline at 2003 and next big resistance trendline at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2020 to 2039.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
3) Fear Abating: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Priced Into the Market ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) as long as we stay above 2014 on a daily close.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1941.5 support and 2032 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1954.5 support and 2020 as resistance.
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2020. ( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2003. ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2014 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2041.5 as targets for now.
IF 2002 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1949 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1950 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2020 and 2039.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
Check new pages Starting January 23rd on your E-Mail.
I discovered that some have access to my pages without paying
for my service... That the reason I have changed the pages...
On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5. Take note that the third
week of trading is usually in a choppy range trend mode ...
Also we are challenging a downward Channel that started on December 30
with 2032 resistance....
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then at 1998.5. That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2003 for today...
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then at 2019.5. That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...
Only a daily close below 2014 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
Only a daily close above 2038.5 will give us a scenario with a Bullish Impulse... Til then Stuck in the Mud...
To really give a Bullish Impulse to that market, we need Financials to be back on track. They are near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) and must hold - See Link Below...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
2) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
3) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
4) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
5) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
6) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline at 2003 and next big resistance trendline at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2020 to 2039.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
3) Fear Abating: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Priced Into the Market ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) as long as we stay above 2014 on a daily close.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1941.5 support and 2032 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1954.5 support and 2020 as resistance.
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2020. ( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2003. ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2014 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2041.5 as targets for now.
IF 2002 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1949 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1950 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2020 and 2039.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily H5 - Challenging the Downward Channel ?
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January 22 ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
January 22 ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily Z4 - Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ? $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500
Jan 22 Challenging the Downward Channel ?
On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5. Take note that the third
week of trading is usually in a choppy range trend mode ...
Also we are challenging a downward Channel that started on December 30
with 2032 resistance....
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then at 1998.5. That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2003 for today...
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then at 2019.5. That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...
Only a daily close below 2014 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
Only a daily close above 2038.5 will give us a scenario with a Bullish Impulse... Til then Stuck in the Mud...
To really give a Bullish Impulse to that market, we need Financials to be back on track. They are near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) and must hold - See Link Below...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
2) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
3) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
4) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
5) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
6) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline at 2003 and next big resistance trendline at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2020 to 2039.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
3) Fear Abating: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Priced Into the Market ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) as long as we stay above 2014 on a daily close.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2014 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1941.5 support and 2032 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1954.5 support and 2020 as resistance.
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2020. ( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
Now becomes support at 2003. ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2014 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2041.5 as targets for now.
IF 2002 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1949 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1950 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2020 and 2039.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 21 Choppy Range ?
On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5. Take note that the third
week of trading is usually in a choppy range trend mode ...
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then
at 1998.5. That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2001.5 for today...
Only a daily close below 2001.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
Only a daily close above 2038.5 will give us a scenario with a Bullish Impulse... Til then Stuck in the Mud...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
2) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
3) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
4) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1961.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2001 to 2027.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
3) Fear Abating: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Priced Into the Market ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) as long as we stay above 2001.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1945.5 support and 2035.5 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1960.5 support and 2026 as resistance.
We broke on January 13 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level. Now becomes support at 2001.5 ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2001.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2031.5 MAX 2038.5 as targets for now.
IF 2001.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1949 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1949 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2001 and 2026.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 20 Dead Cat Bounce or Bull Trend ?
On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5.Take note that the third
week of trading is usually in a range trend mode ...
We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward...
And very tough to trade still as volatility will prevail - see link below...
We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then at 1998.5.
That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 1999.5 for today...
Only a daily close below 1999.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
2) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
3) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
4) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1961.5 and next big resistance trendline at 1998.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 1999 to 2024.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) as long as we stay above 1999.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1949.5 support and 2039.5 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1965.5 support and 2032 as resistance.
We broke on January 13 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level. Now becomes support at 1999.5 ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 1999.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2031.5 MAX 2038.5 as targets for now.
IF 1999.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1949 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1949 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 1999 and 2024.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 16 My Broken Support Trendline ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
On January 12, we did close below the 2036 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. Take note that the second week of trading is usually in a
slow bear trend mode ...
We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward...
And very tough to trade...
We broke a Major Support Trendline on January 15 then at 1997; that will decide the next move for the market... That Trendline which becomes Major Resistance is at 1998.5 for today...
Only a daily close above 1998.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
Best Technical Pattern will be to test the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1948 and rebound violently... Then the reversal will be strong...
Short Term Indicators are near Oversold Conditions... See link below...
Some Comments:
1) Broke on January 15 the Major Support Trendline then at 1997
2) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
3) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
4) Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1961.5 and next big resistance trendline at 1998.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 1961 to 1998.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
3) Short Term: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Near Oversold Zone ?
4) Volatility: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW and VIX Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since January 12 ) as long as we stay below 1998.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1953 support and 2043 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1971 support and 2036.5 as resistance.
We broke on January 13 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We broke another support trendline on January 15 that started on December 16 with 1997 level. Now becomes resistance at 1998.5 ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 1998.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2036 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 12 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 1971 MAX 1948 for now.
IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2019.5 MAX 2038 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1948 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 1961 and 1998.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 15 Still Watch the Support Trendline ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
On January 12, we did close below the 2036 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. Take note that the second week of trading is usually in a
slow bear trend mode ...
We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward...
And very tough to trade...
Only a daily close above 2024 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
We have a Major Support Trendline at 1997; that will decide ( if broken) the next move for the market...
What puzzled me is that we tested the previous low of January 6 and rebounded violently - is that a double bottom at the 1981 level now or not...
Best Technical Pattern will be a dead cat bounce and after resuming downtrend to test the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1947 and rebound violently... Then the reversal will be strong...
Short Term Indicators are near Oversold Conditions... See Seasonalities: 5 Years link below...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
3) Tested on January 14 the Major Support Trendline then at 1995
4) Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1995 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 1997 to 2027.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Weaker Risk Taking Behavior: Back at Oct 2014 Level ?
4) Volatility: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW and VIX Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since January 12 ) as long as we stay below 2024 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1957.5 support and 2046.5 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1990.5 support and 2041.5 as resistance.
We broke on January 13 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We have another support trendline that started on December 16 with 1997 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2024 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2036 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 12 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 1995 MAX 1981 for now.
IF 2024 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2047 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1947 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 1997 and 2027.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 14 Watch the Support Trendline ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
On January 12, we did close below the 2036 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. Take note that the second week of trading is usually in a
slow bear trend mode ...
We may have some very choppy trading sessions going forward...
And very tough to trade...
Only a daily close above 2024 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
We have a Major Support Trendline at 1995; that will decide ( if broken) the next move for the market...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
3) Tested on January 14 the Major Support Trendline then at 1995
4) Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1995 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2038.5... Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 1995 to 2024.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Weaker Risk Taking Behavior: Back at Oct 2014 Level ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since January 12 ) as long as we stay below 2024 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1961.5 support and 2051 as resistance.
We are also within a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1995 support and 2046 as resistance.
We broke on January 13 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We have another support trendline that started on December 16 with 1995 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2024 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2036 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 12 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 1995 MAX 1984 for now.
IF 2024 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2051 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1947 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 1995 and 2024.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 13 Broken 50 DMA
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
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On Back Up Internet this morning: I hope not loosing it...
Yesterday, we did have a close below 2036, then triggering the Bear Trend.
We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) in the past trading
sessions and was rejected. The 50 DMA now at 2037.5 becomes the level
to be back on a Bull Trend. We may have some very choppy trading sessions
going forward... And very tough to trade...
On January 12, we did close below the 2036 level, triggering the Bear Scenario. Take note that the second week of trading is usually in a range mode ...
Only a daily close above 2037.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 12 then at 2039.6
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 12 then at 2037.5
3) Tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline then at 1992
4) Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22.
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January is made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the support trendline from the channel at 1999 and next big resistance is January 8 high at 2058.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2010 to 2037.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since January 12 ) as long as we stay below 2037.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 2004 support and 2037.5 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2088 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We tested on January 12 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2037.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2036 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 12 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 2018.5 MAX 1999 for now.
IF 2037.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2058.5 MAX 2067.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2037.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2037.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning in a slow bear trend around January 14 til January 22. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1945 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2010 and 2037.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Jan 12 Still into the Uptrend Channel ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
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Last Friday I wrote: we made an excess over the resistance on the uptrend
channel: we may have a tiny consolidation today before resuming uptrend
as long as we stay above the 50 DMA at 2035... Closed at 2035.25...
We re still evolving into a new uptrend channel with 2030 support and
2068.5 as resistance.
The Dow Theory is giving us a warning here - see link below
We tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline at 1993 - which is for me the Cheap Zone... That was the reversal sign...
On January 7, we did close above the 2018.5 level, triggering the Bull Scenario. Take note that the second week of trading is usually in a range mode ...
Only a daily close below 2036 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
At this point in time, we need FInancials to break a Major Resistance Trendline to continue that Bull Wave -
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 8 then at 2038.9
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 8 then at 2035.1
3) Tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline then at 1992
4) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January is made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2036 and next big resistance is January 2 high at 2068.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2030 to 2058.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 6 ) as long as we stay above 2036 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with 2030 support and 2068.5 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2087 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on January 6 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2036 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2018.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 7 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2058.5 MAX 2068.5 as targets for now.
IF 2036 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2018.5 MAX 1997 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2036 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2036 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1944 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2030 and 2058.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Jan 9 Above the 50 DMA ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
Yesterday, we made an excess over the resistance on th uptrend channel:
we may have a tiny consolidation today before resuming uptrend as long as
we stay above the 50 DMA at 2035...
We tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline at 1993 - which is for
me the Cheap Zone... That was the reversal sign...
On January 7, we did close above the 2018.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. Take note that the first week of trading is usually in a range mode followed by a Bull Trend...
We re now evolving into a new uptrend channel with 2018.5 support and 2058.5 as resistance.
Only a daily close below 2035 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
At this point in time, we need FInancials to break a Major Resistance Trendline to continue that Bull Wave -
See Link Below.
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 8 then at 2038.9
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 8 then at 2035.1
3) Tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline then at 1992
4) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
5) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January is made on thin air
6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2035 and next big resistance is January 2 high at 2067...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2039 to 2063.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Financials will call the next wave: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Back Above the 50 DMA ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 6 ) as long as we stay above 2035 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with 2018.5 support and 2058.5 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2087 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on January 6 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2035 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2018.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 7 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2058.5 MAX 2067 as targets for now.
IF 2035 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2018.5 MAX 1997 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2035 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2035 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1943 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2039 and 2063.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Jan 8 Reversal From Support Trendline ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
Take note that this morning, it is -35F here: if I loose electricity, I will
not even try to start the generator....
We tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline at 1993 - which is for
me the Cheap Zone... That was the reversal sign...
On January 7, we did close above the 2018.5 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. Take note that the first week of trading is usually in a range mode followed by a Bull Trend...
We re now evolving into a new uptrend channel with 2009.5 support and 2047 as resistance.
Only a daily close below 2009.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
At this point in time, I am not sure if it it a dead cat bounce or a reversal for a longer period of time...
Some Comments:
1) Tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline then at 1992
2) The Daily Trendicator getting near the oversold level - see link below
3) Broke the 20 DMA on January 5 then at 2046.5
4) Broke the 50 DMA on January 5 then at 2028.5
5) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
6) PVT was telling us that this last upleg at the end of December was made on thin air - see link below
7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1994.5 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2039...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2019 to 2039.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 6 ) as long as we stay above 2009.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on January 6 with 2009.5 support and 2047 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2086 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on January 6 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2018.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2009.5 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 2018.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 7 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2040 MAX 2053 as targets for now.
IF 2009.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 1995.5 MAX 1984 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2033 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2033 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1942 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2019 and 2039.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Jan 7 Support Trenline Tested ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
On December 30, we did close below the 2082 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. We must be careful as the first week of trading is usually in a
range mode followed by a Bull Trend...
We re now evolving into a new downtrend channel with 1978 support
and 2018.5 as resistance.
We tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline at 1993 - which is for me the Cheap Zone...
Only a daily close above 2018.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
Some Comments:
1) Tested on January 6 the Major Support Trendline then at 1992
2) The Daily Trendicator getting near the oversold level - see link below
3) Broke the 20 DMA on January 5 then at 2046.5
4) Broke the 50 DMA on January 5 then at 2028.5
5) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
6) PVT was telling us that this last upleg at the end of December was made on thin air - see link below
7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1993 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2031.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 1989 to 2010.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Short Term Indicator : Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Oversold Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 30 ) as long as we stay below 2056.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on December 31 with 1978 support and 2018.5 as resistance.
We broke on January 5 a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 2038.5 support and 2070 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2085 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on January 5 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2017.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2018.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be seen as a bull trend.
IF 2082 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 30 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 2011 MAX 1992 for now.
IF 2018.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2040 MAX 2063 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2028.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls - Broken on January 5...
Already starting to trade below the 2028.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1941 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 1989 and 2010.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Jan 6 Getting Near Oversold Zone ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
On December 30, we did close below the 2082 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. We must be careful as the first week of trading is usually in a
range mode followed by a Bull Trend...
We re now evolving into a new downtrend channel with 1992 support
and 2033.5 as resistance.
We are getting near the Major Support Trendline at 1992 - which is for me the Cheap Zone...
Only a daily close above 2033.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on January 5 then at 2046.5
2) Broke the 50 DMA on January 5 then at 2028.5
3) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
4) PVT was telling us that this last upleg at the end of December was made on thin air - see link below
5) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...
Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1992 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2030.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2004 to 2025.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Short Term Indicator : SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Oversold Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 30 ) as long as we stay below 2056.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on December 31 with 1992 support and 2033.5 as resistance.
We broke on January 5 a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 2038.5 support and 2070 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2085 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on January 5 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2017.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2033.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be seen as a bull trend.
IF 2082 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 30 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 2011 MAX 1992 for now.
IF 2033.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2044 MAX 2067 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2028.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls - Broken on January 5...
Already starting to trade below the 2028.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1941 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2004 and 2025.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Jan 5 Correction Mode since Dec 26 ?
You can find new research and anlysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
As I wrote on December 23rd on my last daily of 2014:
Seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual Chrismas Rally
til December 26 in a grinding Pattern....
We had that Christmas rally according to the usual Seasonals.
On december 30, we did close below the 2082 level, triggering the Bear
Scenario. We must be careful as the first week of trading is in a range mode followed by a Bull Trend...
We re now evolving into a new downtrend channel with 2038.5 support and 2070 as resistance.
Only a daily close above 2056.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
Some Comments:
1) Tested on the downside the 20 DMA on January 2 at 2047.4
2) Seasonals are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern....
3) PVT was telling us that this last upleg at the end of December was made on thin air - see link below
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2028.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2084...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2056.
NEW Premium Service Member Pages
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Short Term Indicator : SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Weaker Risk Taking Behavior ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 30 ) as long as we stay below 2056.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 2038.5 support and 2070 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2084 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2017.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2056.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be seen as a bull trend.
IF 2082 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 30 ) then expect a bear phase ; then 2040 MAX 2017.5 for now.
IF 2056.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2070 MAX 2084 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2028.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2028.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonalities are turning around January 6 for the usual New Year Rally til Mid-January in a grinding Pattern.... See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1940 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
The market should trade today between 2033 and 2056.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Large Speculators: Same Pattern as Last Year ?
Dec 23 Chistmas Rally Til Dec 26 ?
Last Day of pubilcation for the Daily: December 23rd.
Resuming the daily and the intra-day on January the 5th.
Happy Holidays
On december 17, we did close above the 1984 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. The FOMC triggered the Christmas Rally that is now shifting into
a grinding pattern til December 26.
We re now evolving into a new uptrend channel with 2070.5 support and
2091 as resistance.
Only a daily close above 2080 will give this rally a second bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual Chrismas Rally til December 26 in a grinding Pattern....
The real seasonal bull impulse is at the beginning of the year were in the 5 first trading sessions, the market is in rally mode tremendously and fade thereafter - see link below - Seasonalities.
To stay in that Bull Trade scenario, we must stay above 2064 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Seasonals are in a grinding pattern til December 26.
2) Broke on the upside the 20 DMA on December 18 at 2039
3) PVT is telling us that this last upleg was made on thin air - see link below
4) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at 1990
5) Broke the downtrend resistance trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 17 - red line chart
6) Russell Break Out on December 17 - see link below
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2042 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2079.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19 and after the usual Chrismas Rally til December 26.
Then today I expect a range from 2064 to 2080.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
3) Volatility : SP500 Financials HVol: Risky Business: Very Unusual: High HVol near Market High ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay above 2056.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 19 with 2070.5 support and 2091 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2080 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2016.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2064 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1984 break up on a daily close ( it did on December 17 ) , then back to a bullish phase ; then 2080 MAX 2094 as targets for now.
IF 2064 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2042 MAX 2016.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 2000.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2000.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19 and resuming after for the usual Chrismas Rally til December 26.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1931 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 2064 and 2080.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 22 Chistmas Rally Continue ?
Take note that on December 22 and 23rd, only the daily will be published.
Resuming the daily and the intra-day on January the 5th.
On december 17, we did close above the 1984 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. The FOMC triggered the Christmas Rally that is now shifting into
a grinding pattern til December 26.
We re now evolving into a new uptrend channel with 2064 support and
2084.5 as resistance.
Only a daily close above 2079.5 will give this rally a second bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual
Chrismas Rally til December 26 in a grinding Pattern....
The real seasonal bull impulse is at the beginning of the year were in the 5 first trading sessions, the market is in rally mode tremendousl and fade thereafter - see link below - Seasonalities.
To stay in that Bull Trade scenario, we must stay above 2056.5 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Seasonals are in a grinding pattern til December 26.
2) Broke on the upside the 20 DMA on December 18 at 2039
3) PVT is telling us that this last upleg was made on thin air - see link below
4) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at 1990
5) Broke the downtrend resistance trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 17 - red line chart
6) Russell Break Out on December 17 - see link below
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2041 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2079.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19 and after the usual Chrismas Rally til December 26.
Then today I expect a range from 2061 to 2079.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the RUB.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Still in Divergence ?
3) Volatility : SP500 Financials HVol: Risky Business: Very Unusual: High HVol near Market High ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay above 2056.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on December 19 with 2064 support and 2084.5 as resistance.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2079.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2016.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2056.5 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1984 break up on a daily close ( it did on December 17 ) , then back to a bullish phase ; then 2079.5 MAX 2094 as targets for now.
IF 2056.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2041 MAX 2016.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1993.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1996.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19 and resuming after for the usual Chrismas Rally til December 26.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1930 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 2061 and 2079.
Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 19 From FOMC Chistmas Rally to Euphoria ?
On december 17, we did close above the 1984 level, triggering the Bull
Scenario. The FOMC triggered the Christmas Rally that is now shifting into
the Euphoria Phase...
We also came back above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) on December
18 then at 2039...
Only a daily close above 2078.5 will give this rally a second bull impulse...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual
Chrismas Rally...
To stay in that Bull Trade scenario, we must stay above 2054 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA on December 18 at 2039
2) Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19 and then resuming uptrend
3) PVT is telling us that this last upleg was made on thin air - see link below
4) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at 1990
5) Broke the downtrend resistance trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 17 - red line chart
6) Russell Break Out on December 17 - see link below
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2040 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2078.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19 and after the usual Chrismas Rally.
Then today I expect a range from 2054 to 2074.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the RUB.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Break Out ?
SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
3) Volatility : SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW and VIX Collapsing ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay above 12054 on a daily close.
We have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on November 26 with 2078.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - top red trendline )
We broke on December 17 a downtrend channel that started on December 12 with 1948.5 support and 1986.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2016.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 2054 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1984 break up on a daily close ( it did on December 17 ) , then back to a bullish phase ; then 2074 MAX 2078.5 as targets for now.
IF 2054 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2040 MAX 2016.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1993.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1993.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19 and resuming after for the usual Chrismas Rally.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1929 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 2054 and 2074.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 18 FOMC Chistmas Rally ?
Yesterday we did close above the 1984 level, triggering the Bull Scenario.
The FOMC triggered the Christmas Rally...
We also came back above the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) on December
17 then at 1990...
We broke two resistance trendlines on December 17 at 1979 and 2016.5
Which becomes supports...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual
Chrismas Rally...
To stay in that Bull Trade scenario, we must stay above 1991.5 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19
2) Broke the 50 DMA on December 17 then at 1990
3) Broke the downtrend resistance trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 17 - red line chart
4) Russell Break Out on December 17 - see link below
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1991.5 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2039...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19 and after the usual Chrismas Rally.
Then today I expect a range from 2016 to 2039.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the RUB.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Break Out ?
3) Volatility : SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW and VIX Collapsing ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay above 1991.5 on a daily close.
We broke on Decemebr 17 a downtrend channel that started on December 12 with 1948.5 support and 1986.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2016.5 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay above 1991.5 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.
IF 1984 break up on a daily close ( it did on December 17 ) , then back to a bullish phase ; then 2016.5 MAX 2039 as targets for now.
IF 1991.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 1980 MAX 1961.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1991.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1991.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19 and resuming after for the usual Chrismas Rally.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1928 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 2016 and 2039.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 17 My Broken Support Trendline ?
Well we broke the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) on December 15 then
at 1989, trigggering the bear scenario form a range trade pattern.
Finally we had that downside wave as we see by breaking the 50 DMA,
an acceleration of sellers which obviously did occur on December 16...
We broke a support trendline at 1977.5 on December 16 ( now at 1979 )
Which becomes a resistance...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual
Chrismat Rally...
Todays FOMC can add to the volatility - Especially IF they drop the considerable time period...
To stay in that Bear Trade scenario, we must stay below 1984 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 50 DMA on December 15 then at 1989
2) Financials did close below a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.48
3) Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19
4) Broke the 20 DMA then at 2049 on December 10
5) Broke the downtrend support trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 12 - red line chart
6) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
7) YEN is now in a Correction Phase and trading near the 20 DMA
8) Volatility is pricing Fear - see link below
Next big support is the 200 DMA at 1927 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 1990...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19.
Then today I expect a range from 1966 to 1990.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Oversold Zone ?
3) Volatility : SP500 Financials and VIX: A Fear Premium Already Built Into the Market ?
4) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 15 ) as long as we stay below 1984 on a daily close.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 12 with 1948.5 support and 1986.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on April 14 with 1979 level.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 1984 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Range mode and will be seen as a break out.
IF 1989 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 15 ), then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1951 for now.
IF 1984 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2012 MAX 2017 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1990 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1990 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1927 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 1966 and 1990.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 16 a Broken 50 DMA ?
We broke the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) on December 15 then at 1989,
trigggering the bear scenario form a range trade pattern.
Honestly, I am puzzled as we should have seen, by breaking the 50 DMA,
an acceleration of sellers which obviously did not occur...
On the other side, yesterday s move by the Central Bank of Russia to
hike rates to 17% should calm markets on a short term basis...
Also, seasonalities are turning around December 15 for the usual
Chrismat Rally...
That coup de Jarnac will become usual til year end as liquidity is drying up and portfolio rebalancing and squaring positions will add to the volatility...
To stay in that Bear Trade scenario, we must stay below 1997.5 on a daily close...
Breaking 1977.5 will create another nasty bear wave...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 50 DMA on December 15 then at 1989
2) Financials did close below a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.48
3) Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19
4) Broke the 20 DMA then at 2049 on December 10
5) Broke the downtrend support trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 12 - red line chart
6) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
7) YEN is now in a Correction Phase and trading near the 20 DMA
8) Volatility will prevail - see link below
Next big support is the major support trendline at 1977.5 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2044...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19.
Then today I expect a range from 1977 to 2012.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Indicator : Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Oversold Zone ?
3) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 15 ) as long as we stay below 1997.5 on a daily close.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 12 with 1959.5 support and 1997.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on April 14 with 1977.5 as support.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 1997.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Range mode and will be seen as a break out.
IF 1989 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 15 ), then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1951 for now.
IF 1997.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2016.5 MAX 2025.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1989.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1989.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1927 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 1977 and 2012.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 15 A New Range Trade Pattern ?
Today shifiting to the March 2015 Contract (H5).
We had on December 12 a small Capitulation Trade and tested almost the
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 1988.
I think this week, we will see a new Range Trade Pattern between the 20
and 50 DMA ( respectively at 1989 and 2046 for today ).
But for that we need a daily close above the 50 DMA in all cases, unless
the Range Trade Scenario is cancelled and back to another Bear Wave...
That coup de Jarnac will become usual til year end as liquidity is drying up and portfolio rebalancing and squaring positions will add to the volatility...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay between 1989 and 2046 on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Tested almost the 50 DMA on December 12 then at 1987.7 and closed above
2) Financials did close below a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.47
3) Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19
4) Broke the 20 DMA then at 2049 on December 10
5) Broke the downtrend support trenline that started on Sep 19 at 2016.5 on December 12 - red line chart
6) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
7) YEN is now in a Correction Phase and trading near the 20 DMA
8) Volatility will prevail - see link below
I need a daily close below 1989 and 2046 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1988 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2046...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are in a Range Trade Pattern til December 19.
Then today I expect a range from 1988 to 2016.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Financials Technical Rejection: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): False Break Out ?
3) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 12 ) as long as we stay between 1989 and 2046 on a daily close.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 8 with 1995.5 support and 2034 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2016.5 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay between 1989 and 2046 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Range mode and will be seen as a break out.
IF 1989 break down on a daily close , then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1970 MAX 1951 for now.
IF 2046 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2055 MAX 2072 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1989 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1989 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are in a Range Pattern til December 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1926 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1812...
The market should trade today between 1988 and 2016.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 12 Resuming Downtrend ?
As expected the dead cat bounce yesterday was quite strong and exceeded
a little our max target of 2055.5 before resuming downtrend.
Having a daily close today below 2023.5 will accelerate the downfall...
That coup de Jarnac will become usual til year end as liquidity is drying up
and portfolio rebalancing and squaring positions will add to the volatility...
To stay in that Bear Trade scenario, we must stay below 2040.5
on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA then at 2056 on December 10
2) Broke the downtrend channel support trenline at 2050.5 a on December 10
3) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
4) YEN is now in a Correction Phase
5) Volatility will prevail - see link below
6) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.45
7) Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15
I need a daily close below 2040.5 to stay into a Bear Trade Phase.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1195 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2055...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
Then today I expect a range from 2012 to 2040.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 10 ) as long as we stay below 2040.5 on a daily close.
We broke on December 10 a new downtrend channel that started on December 8 with 2050.5 support and 2074.5 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 9 with 2018.5 support and 2055.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September with 2023.5 as support.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2040.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. That level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bear mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2050.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 10 ) , then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2021 for now.
IF 2023.5 break down on a daily close , then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1995 MAX 1981 for now.
IF 2040.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2055 MAX 2063 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2055 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2055 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1932 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2012 and 2040.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 11 Dead Cat Bounce ?
On December 10, we did close below the 2050.5 level which trigger the
Bearish Scenario: But because in fact we reached within the same day the
support trendline at 2023.5, then a dead cat bounce to 2044.5 MAX 2055.5
before resuming downtrend...
That coup de Jarnac will become usual til year end as liquidity is drying up
and portfolio rebalancing and squaring positions will add to the volatility...
To stay in that Bear Trade scenario, we must stay below 2055.5
on a daily close...
Some Comments:
1) Broke the 20 DMA then at 2056 on December 10
2) Broke the downtrend channel support trenline at 2050.5 a on December 10
3) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
4) YEN is now in a Correction Phase
5) Volatility will prevail - see link below
6) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.45
7) Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15
I need a daily close below 2055.5 to stay into a Bear Trade Phase.
Next big support is the Trendline at 2023.5 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2055.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
Then today I expect a range from 2023 to 2044.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Shrt Term Indicator - Dead Cat Bounce: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Near Oversold Zone ?
4) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 10 ) as long as we stay below 2055.5 on a daily close.
We broke on December 10 a new downtrend channel that started on December 8 with 2050.5 support and 2074.5 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 9 with 2020.5 support and 2058 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on September with 2023.5 as support.
( See 1st chart below - red trendline )
We need to stay below 2055.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. That level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bear mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2050.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 10 ) , then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2021 for now.
IF 2055.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2063 MAX 2068 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2056 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 2056 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1931 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2023 and 2044.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 10 Coup de Jarnac ?
On December 3rd, we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the
Alternative Scenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ). Yes we re still
within that Range Trade Scenario, but getting near testing it on the
support side...
And yesterday we did close above the 2052 level, keeping the Range Trade
Scenario intact... That coup de Jarnac will become usual til year end
as liquidity is drying up and portfolio rebalancing and squaring positions
will add to the volatility...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2050.5 and 2074.5 on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2050.5, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2074.5, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) Broke 2 uptrend channel support trenline at 2070.5 and 2064 on December 8 - see details below
2) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
3) YEN is now in a Correction Phase
4) Volatility will prevail - see link below
5) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.43
6) Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15
7) the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at play at 2056
I need a daily close between 2050.5 and 2074.5 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the Channel Trendline at 2050.5 and next big resistance is the top at 2079...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
Then today I expect a range from 2048 to 2064.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2050.5 and 2074.5 on a daily close.
We broke on December 8 an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2070.5 as support and 2100 as resistance.
We broke also on December 8 a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with 2064.5 support and 2081 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 8 with 2050.5 support and 2074.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2056.5 as support.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2050.5 and 2074.5 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2050.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2074.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2091 MAX 2102 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2056 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2056 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming downtrend til December 15.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1930 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2048 and 2064.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 9 Range Trade Scenario being Challenged ?
On December 3rd, we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the
Alternative Scenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ). Yes we re still
within that Range Trade Scenario, but getting near testing it on the
support side...
That will be a lot more difficult to trade as we may have false signals
and loose out patience. Only trading ( for today s levels ) below 2052 or
above 2076.5 will cancel that Range Trade Scenario...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2052 and 2076.5
on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2052, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2076.5, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) Broke 2 uptrend channel support trenline at 2070.5 and 2064 on December 8 - see details below
2) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
3) YEN is now in a Correction Phase
4) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.41
5) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
I need a daily close between 2052 and 2076.5 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the Channel Trendline at 2052 and next big resistance is the top at 2079...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2048 to 2064.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2052 and 2076.5 on a daily close.
We broke on December 8 an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2070.5 as support and 2100 as resistance.
We broke also on December 8 a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with 2064.5 support and 2081 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on December 8 with 2052 support and 2076.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2055.5 as support.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2052 and 2076.5 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2055 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2076.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2091 MAX 2102 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2055 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2055 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1929 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2048 and 2064.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 8 Did You Say Range Trade Again ?
On December 3rd, we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the
Alternative Scenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ). Yes we re still
within that Range Trade Scenario.
That will be a lot more difficult to trade as we may have false signals
and loose out patience. Only trading ( for today s levels ) below 2053 or
above 2079 will cancel that Range Trade Scenario...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2053 and 2079
on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2053, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2079, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) Risk Taking Behavior a lot less aggressive than prior highs on the SP500 - see link below
2) Liquidity is drying up quickly and volume already down tremendously:
SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
3) There is No Fear in that Market -
4) YEN is still in a Grinding Phase
5) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.41
6) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
I need a daily close between 2053 and 2079 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2053 and next big resistance is the top at 2079...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2061 to 2079.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Weaker Risk Taking Behavior ?
3) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2053 and 2079 on a daily close.
We are back within an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2070.5 as support and 2100 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on December 3 with 2064.5 support and 2081 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2055 as support.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2053 and 2079 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2053 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2079 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2091 MAX 2102 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2053 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2053 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1928 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2061 and 2079.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 5 Tricky NFP ?
Last NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ) of the year. Expectations are for +230k but
what really matters for me is the AHE ( Average Hourly Earnings ) expected
at +0.2%...
On December 3rd, we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the
Alternative Scenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ).
That will be a lot difficult to trade as we may have false signals and
loose out patience. Only trading ( for today s levels ) below 2051 or
above 2077 will cancel that Range Trade Scenario...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2051 and 2077
on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2051, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2077, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) There is No Fear in that Market -
2) YEN is still in a Grinding Phase
3) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.41
4) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
I need a daily close between 2051 and 2077 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2054 and next big resistance is the top at 2077...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2061 to 2084.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2051 and 2077 on a daily close.
We are back within an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2067.5 as support and 2098 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on November 26 with 2046.5 support and 2072 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2054 as support.
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2051 and 2077 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2051 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2077 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2088.5 MAX 2099.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2051 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2051 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1927 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2061 and 2084.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 4 Challenging the Alternative Scenario ?
On December 3rd, we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the
AlternativeScenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ).
That will be a lot difficult to trade as we may have false signals and
loose out patience. Only trading ( for today s levels ) below 2048 or
above 2075.5 will cancel that Range Trade Scenario...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2048 and 2075.5
on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2048, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2075.5, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) There is No Fear in that Market - see link below
2) YEN is still in a Grinding Phase
3) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.40
4) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
I need a daily close between 2048 and 2075.5 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2048 and next big resistance is the top at 2076...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2064 to 2082.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Into the Market ?
3) Financials are back: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Broke the Resistance Trendline ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2048 and 2075.5 on a daily close.
We are back within an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2063.5 as support and 2094 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on November 26 with 2046.5 support and 2072 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2053.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2048 and 2075.5 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2048 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2010 for now.
IF 2075.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2084.5 MAX 2097 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2048 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2048 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1925 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2064 and 2082.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 3 Alternative Scenario - a Complicated Story ?
Yesterday we did close above the 2064 level which trigger the Alternative
Scenario: a Consolidation ( Range Trade ).
That will be a lot difficult to trade as we may have false signals and
loose out patience. Only trading ( for today s levels ) below 2047 or
above 2075.5 will cancel that Range Trade Scenario...
To stay in that Range Trade scenario, we must stay within 2047 and 2075.5
on a daily close...
IF we have a daily close below 2047, then back to a Bearish Scenario.
IF we have a daily close above 2075.5, then back to a Bullish Scenario.
Some Comments:
1) VIX is near breaking its Support Trendline - see link below
2) YEN is still in a Grinding Phase
3) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.39 the 20
4) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
I need a daily close between 2047 and 2075.5 to stay into a Range Trade Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2045 and next big resistance is the top at 2075.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2060 to 2073.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: VIX and SP500: Near Support Trendline ?
3) Financials are back: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Broke the Resistance Trendline ?
4) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Range Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay within 2047 and 2075.5 on a daily close.
We are back within an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2060.5 as support and 2091 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on November 26 with 2047 support and 2073 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2052.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay between 2047 and 2075.5 for that scenario to unfold. That RANGE will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out those levels will cancel the RANGE mode and will be seen as technical break out.
IF 2047 break down on a daily close, then expect a bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2010 for now.
IF 2075.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2084 MAX 2095 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2045 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2045 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1925 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2060 and 2073.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 2 The Line in the Sand ?
Apple Shares (AAPL) have become big among ETF s holders and is so huge
that it became a market sentiment and trend indicator for the whole market...
Yesterday was a good example of that....
On November 28, we had a close below the support trendline from the
tiny uptrend channel then at 2067 triggering the consolidation scenario.
And on December 1st, we had a daily close below 2054, triggering then the
bear scenario form the consolidation stance...
To stay in that bearish scenario, we must have a close today below 2064...
IF we have a daily close above 2064, then back to a Consolidation Scenario ( Range Trade ).
Only a daily cloase above 2071 will trigger back the bullish scenario...
Some Comments:
1) Short Term Technical Indicators Reversing like the SP500: Ratio% Stocks Above 50/200 DMA - see link below
2) DJ Transports Huge Correction on December 1 is a Warning Sign - see link below
3) Technology Stocks ( mainly Apple ) are Driving that Market Trend and Sentiment
4) Financials did close below a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.38 and tested the 20 DMA at 24.17. Also observe a Shooting Star on November 28 on XLF ETF.
5) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
6) We broke on November 28 the Support trendline then at 2067
I need a daily close below the 2064 level (resistance trendline-chart below) to stay into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2042 and next big resistance is the top at 2075.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2047 to 2064.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: 7 DMA Turned to a Bearish Stance ?
3) Long Term Trend: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Consolidation mode ( since November 28 ) as long as we stay below 2069 on a daily close.
We broke on December 1st an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2054 as support and 2084 as resistance.
We have a new downtrend channel that started on November 26 with 2047.5 support and 2073 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2052 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2064 for that scenario to unfold. That 2064 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2067 break down on a daily close (it did on November 28), then expect another bear phase ; then 2054 for now.
IF 2054 break down on a daily close ( it did on December 1st ), then expect another bear phase ; then 2042 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2064 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2071 MAX 2075.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2042 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2042 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1923 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2047 and 2064.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Dec 1 Testing Channel Support ?
So as expected, Month End Expectations were right on:
the risk was a rebalancing towards selling stocks and buying bonds.
On November 28, we had a close below the support trendline from the
tiny uptrend channel then at 2067 triggering the consolidation scenario.
To stay in that Consolidation scenario, we must have a close today
below 2069...
IF we have a daily close below 2054, then from a Consolidation Scenario,
we will have a brand new bear trend...
Some Comments:
1) Financials Historical Volatility tells us we have a very Complacent Market - see link below
2) A Bearish Engulfing Pattern on the Industrial Sector - see link below
3) The YEN could be the first warning sign of a reversal
4) Technology Stocks ( mainly Apple ) are Driving that Market Trend and Sentiment
4) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.36
But did close with a Shooting Star on November 28
5) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10
6) We broke on November 28 the Support trendline then at 2067
I need a daily close below the 2069 level (resistance trendline-chart below) to stay into a Consolidation Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2054 and next big resistance is the top at 2075.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
Then today I expect a range from 2050 to 2064.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 Financials HVol: Risky Business: Low HVol with a Shooting Star ?
Bearish Engulfing Pattern on XLI: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Testing Support Trendline ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Consolidation mode ( since November 28 ) as long as we stay below 2069 on a daily close.
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2054 as support and 2084 as resistance.
We broke on November 28 a new uptrend channel that started on November 24 with 2067 support and 2077.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2051 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2069 for that scenario to unfold. That 2069 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Consolidation mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2067 break down on a daily close (it did on November 28), then expect another bear phase ; then MAX 2054 for now.
IF 2054 break down on a daily close, then expect another bear phase ; then 2040 MAX 2025 for now.
IF 2069 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2075.5 MAX 2084 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 2040 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2040 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 10.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1922 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2050 and 2064.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 28 Tricky Month End ?
Already Month End: early close - low liquidity, it can get very tricky indeed.
Seasonals still bullish but assets performance tells me that the risk
is a rebalancing towards selling stocks and buying bonds.
From October 31 til November 26, SP500 Index was up +2.7% and IEF ETF
( iShares 7-10 years Treasury Bond Fund ) up only +0.9%.
Market continue to grind but losing momentum. From a steep uptrend
channel, we are into a new upward channel with 2067 as support that
will become the level not to break to continue that Grinding Pattern.
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that new support we should follow and not close below to confirm that we stay into that new bull wave... Now at 2067.
Some Comments:
1) The YEN could be the first warning sign of a reversal
2) Many Divergence From that Market, especially the Price Volume Trend ( PVT ) - see link below
3) Technology Stocks ( mainly Apple ) are Driving that Market Higher
4) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.36
5) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5
6) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2049.5 and become support )
I need a daily close below the 2065 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2050 and next big resistance is the channel at 2082...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
Then today I expect a range from 2060 to 2077.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2067 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2050 as support and 2082 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on November 24 with 2067 support and 2077.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2050 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2067 for that scenario to unfold. That 2067 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2075.5 MAX 2087.5 as targets for now.
IF 2067 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2050 MAX 2036 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2036 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2036 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1920 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2060 and 2077.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 26 Losing Momentum ?
Market continue to grind but losing momentum. From a steep uptrend
channel, we are into a new upward channel with 2065 as support that
will become the level not to break to continue that Grinding Pattern.
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that new support we should follow and not close below to confirm that
we stay into that new bull wave... Now at 2065.
Some Comments:
1) The YEN could be the first warning sign of a reversal - see link below
2) Many Divergence From that Market - see link below
3) Technology Stocks ( mainly Apple ) are Driving that Market Higher - see link below
4) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.35
5) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5
6) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2049.5 and become support )
I need a daily close below the 2065 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2049.5 and next big resistance is the channel at 2078.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
Then today I expect a range from 2062 to 2076.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
4) Technology Stocks Driving the Show: SP500 Technology Bull% Index: Near Overbought ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2065 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2047 as support and 2078.5 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on November 24 with 2065 support and 2075.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2049.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2065 for that scenario to unfold. That 2065 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2075.5 MAX 2087.5 as targets for now.
IF 2065 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2049 MAX 2031 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2031 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2031 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1919 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2062 and 2076.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 25 The Grind Continue
One technical factor have changed for me. Now I will focus on a new
steep uptrend channel with 2064 as support that will become the level
not to break to continue that Grinding Pattern.
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that new support we should follow and not close below to confirm that
we stay into that new bull wave... Now at 2064.
Some Comments:
1) The YEN could be the first warning sign of a reversal - see link below
2) Market is pricing the usual SKEW spike when we have new highs - see link below
3) Financials did close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21 - XLF at 24.35
4) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5
5) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2048 and become support )
I need a daily close below the 2064 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2048.5 and next big resistance is the previous high at 2072.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
Then today I expect a range from 2058 to 2075.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Long Term Indicator: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2064 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2043.5 as support and 2074.5 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on November 20 with 2064 support and 2091 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2048.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2064 for that scenario to unfold. That 2064 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2072 MAX 2086.5 as targets for now.
IF 2064 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2043 MAX 2027 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2027 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2027 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1919 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2058 and 2075.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 24 Extended Grind ?
Last Friday, we did close above the 2047 level, then staying on a bullish
trend even if I still really dislike that market...
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that trendline becomes support and we should not close below
to confirm that new wave... Now at 2048
But already having a close below 2060.5 will break the strong momentum
we have since November 20.
Some Comments:
1) Market is pricing the usual SKEW spike when we have new highs - see link below
2) Financials failed to close above a Major Resistance Trendline that started on March 21
3) Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5
4) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2048 and become support )
5) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is not strong at all and do not confirm
I need a daily close below the 2048 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2048 and next big resistance is the previous high at 2072.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
Then today I expect a range from 2058 to 2072.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Long Term Indicator: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Bullish ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2048 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2040.5 as support and 2071 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on November 20 with 2060.5 support and 2086.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2048 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2048 for that scenario to unfold. That 2048 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2072 MAX 2086.5 as targets for now.
IF 2048 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2035 MAX 2021 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2021 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2021 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are resuming uptrend til December 5.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1916 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2058 and 2072.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 21 The Grind ?
Yesterday we did close above the 2046.5 level, then staying on a bullish
trend even if I really dislike that market...
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that trendline becomes support and we should not close below
to confirm that new wave... Now at 2047
Some Comments:
1) Market is pricing the usual SKEW spike when we have new highs - see link below
2) A Risk Premium is building up into the Financials
3) Seasonals are near resuming uptrend- bottom is November 20
4) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2047 and become support )
5) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is not strong at all and do not confirm
I need a daily close below the 2047 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2047 and next big resistance is the previous high at 2067.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals are near resuming uptrend after November 23.
Then today I expect a range from 2047 to 2067.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Call ?
2) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2047 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2037 as support and 2067.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2047 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2047 for that scenario to unfold. That 2047 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2061 MAX 2068 as targets for now.
IF 2047 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2025 MAX 2011 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2016 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2016 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are near resuming uptrend after November 23.
.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1914 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2047 and 2067.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 20 NO Follow Through ?
Yesterday I wrote:, we did have a close above the resistance trendline
thatstarted on July 3rd. It should be impulsive to reach new high quickly.
But honestly - I doubt that we can do it...
We did not have an impulse wave, failed to make a new high on FOMC;
I really dislike that market... But must wait for the technical confirmation.
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
So that trendline becomes support and we should not close below
to confirm that new wave... Now at 2046.5
Some Comments:
1) Short Term Technical Indicators like the NYSE advande decline is weakening - see link below
2) A Risk Premium is building up into the Financials - see link below
3) Seasonals are on the last call for a correction phase - bottom is November 20
4) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now at 2046.5 and become support )
5) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is not strong at all and do not confirm - see link below
I need a daily close below the 2046.5 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase. But already I feel the trigger...
Next big support is the support trendline at 2046.5 and next big resistance is the previous high at 2054...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2025 to 2048.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Call ?
2) Short Term Indicator: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Still Weakening ?
3) Market Vol to Rise: SP500 Financials and VIX: A Fear Premium Building Up ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2046.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2033.5 as support and 2064.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2046.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2046.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2046.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2061 MAX 2068 as targets for now.
IF 2046.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2025 MAX 2011 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2011 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2011 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1913 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2025 and 2048.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 19 Any Follow Through ?
Yesterday, we did have a close above the resistance trendline that
started on July 3rd. It should be impulsive to reach new high quickly.
But honestly - I doubt that we can do it...
So that trendline becomes support and we should not close below
to confirm that new wave...
On November 18, we had a close above the Old Resistance trendline
then at 2044.50 ( now become support ) triggering the bullish scenario.
Some Comments:
1) Seasonals are on the last call for a correction phase - bottom is November 20
2) We broke on November 18 Old Resistance trendline then at 2044.50 ( now become support )
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is not strong at all and do not confirm - see link below
I need a daily close below the 2044.5 level ( suport trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bearish Phase.
Next big support is the support trendline at 2044.5 and next big resistance is the previous high at 2054...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2036 to 2061.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Call ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : A Weak Bull Trend?
3) Market Vol to Rise: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since November 18 ) as long as we stay above 2044.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bearish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2030 as support and 2061 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 with 2044.5 as support
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay above 2044.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2044.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on November 18 ), then back to a bullish phase ; then 2061 MAX 2068 as targets for now.
IF 2044.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2030 MAX 2005 for now
Adding the 20 DMA at 2005 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 2005 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1912 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2036 and 2061.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 18 Ain t No Satisfaction ?
Same strategy since November 7 for me; same old story you can say.
Not much have changed for me in the past few trading sessions;
I stick to my call; we are a few trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope
not to go through the saloon s door experiment...
To say the least, we ain t have No Satisfaction: Market Seasonals are
turning on November 20... Need a quick move unless risk will be to
trade new high... Just wondering again if the correction is more Time
than Prices...
Already breaking the 2027 level will be the first sign that the correction
have begun... 2020.5 daily close will confirm
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) Seasonals are on the last call for a correction phase - bottom is November 20
2) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2044.5 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 1999 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2044.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2027 to 2044.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Call ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk On Behavior ?
3) Long Term Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2044.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2027 as support and 2058.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2044.5 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2044.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2044.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1984 for now
IF 2044.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2055 MAX 2058.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 1999 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1999 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1910 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2027 and 2044.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 17 Same Strategy ?
Same strategy since November 7 for me; same old story you can say.
Not much have changed for me in the past few trading sessions;
I stick to my call; we are a few trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope
not to go through the saloon s door experiment...
Already breaking the 2027 level will be the first sign that the correction
have begun... 2023.5 daily close will confirm
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) Financials will be the first sign of reversal - already a shooting star on the weekly chart on November 14
2) Market Fatigue: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator is Weakening - see link below
3) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) not showing any uptick lately - that uptrend is weak
4) Seasonals are on the last call for a correction phase - bottom is November 20
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2044 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 1992 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2044...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2023 to 2040.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Call ?
2) Short Term Indicator: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Weakening ?
3) Long Term Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2044 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We have an uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2023.5 as support and 2054 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2044 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2044 for that scenario to unfold. That 2044 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1984 for now
IF 2044 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2051 MAX 2055.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 1992 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1992 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1908 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2023 and 2040.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 14 Same Old Story ?
Same strategy since November 7 for me; same old story you can say.
Not much have changed for me in the past few trading sessions;
I stick to my call; we are a few trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope
not to go through the saloon s door experiment...
Already breaking the 2027 level will be the first sign that the correction
have begun...
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) Volume on the E-Mini SP500 reflect a poor uptrend lately - see link below
2) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) not showing any uptick lately - that uptrend is weak
3) Financials will be the first sign of reversal
4) Seasonals are near back on the correction phase - peak is November 13
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2043 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 1984.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2043...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2027 to 2044.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Where s the volume: SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 11.5% ?
3) Long Term Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2043 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We are not anymore within an uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2041.5 support and 2078 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2020.5 as support and 2051 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2043 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2043 for that scenario to unfold. That 2043 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1984 for now
IF 2043 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2051 MAX 2055.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 1984.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1984.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1907 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2027 and 2044.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 13 D-Day for Me ?
Same strategy since November 7 for me; It is D-Day.
Not much have changed for me in the past few trading sessions;
I stick to my call; we are a few trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope
not to go through the saloon s door experiment...
Already breaking the 2027 level will be the first sign that the correction
have begun...
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) not showing any uptick lately - that uptrend is weak
2) Financials will be the first sign of reversal - see link below
3) The YEN as Trend Indicator did push lower on November 12
4) Seasonals are near back on the correction phase - peak is November 13
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2042.5 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 20 DMA at 1975 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2042.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2027 to 2043.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 Financials Weekly: Testing Major Resistance Trendline ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2042.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We are still within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2034 support and 2070 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2017 as support and 2048 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2042.5 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2042.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2042.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1975 for now
IF 2042.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2048 MAX 2054 as targets for now.
Adding the 20 DMA at 1975 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1975 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1906 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2027 and 2043.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 12 Market Fatigue ?
Not much have changed for me in the past few trading sessions;
I stick to my call; we are a few trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope
not to go through the saloon s door experiment...
Already breaking the 2027 level will be the first sign that the correction
have begun...
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) No fear is priced into that market - see link below
2) Market Overbought short term - see link below
3) The YEN as Trend Indicator did push lowerer on November 12
4) Seasonals are near back on the correction phase - peak is November 13
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2042 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1965 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2042...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2020 to 2042.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Ratio Reached Level of Prior Correction ?
3) No Fear Priced In: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Into the Market ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2042 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We are still within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2027 support and 2063 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2013.5 as support and 2044 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2042 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2042 for that scenario to unfold. That 2042 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1965 for now
IF 2042 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2049 MAX 2061 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1904 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2020 and 2042.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 11 The Grind ?
Market continue its grinding process: I stick to my call; we are a few
trading sessions of a reversal, I just hope not to go through the saloon s
door experiment...
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) Market Overbought short term - see links below
2) The YEN as Trend Indicator did push higher on November 11
3) A Hanging Man on Financials ( XLF ETF ) appeared on November 7 but cancelled on November 10 with a new high in price: Financials will be the leader into the consolidation phase.
4) Seasonals are near back on the correction phase - peak is November 13
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2041.5 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1965 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2041.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2021 to 2041.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2041.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We are still within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2019.5 support and 2056 as resistance.
We have a new uptrend channel that started on October 31 with 2010.5 as support and 2041.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2041.5 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2041.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2041.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1965 for now
IF 2041.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2049 MAX 2061 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals peak on November 13 to turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1904 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2019 and 2034.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 10 A Reversal Finally ?
On November 7, we had a close below the Old Rising Wedge then at 2027.50
triggering the correction scenario.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) Divergences abound in the market - see links below
2) The YEN as Trend Indicator finally reversed on November 10
3) A Hanging Man on Financials ( XLF ETF ) appeared on November 7:
Financials will be the leader into the consolidation phase - see link below
4) Seasonals are near back on the correction phase - peak is November 13
5) We broke on November 7 The Old Rising Wedge at 2027.5
I need a daily close above the 2040.5 level ( resistance trendline - chart below - amber line ) to be back into a Bullish Phase.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1963.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2040.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern from November 13 til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2019 to 2034.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) NYSE Divergence : NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Warning from Financials: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Hanging Man Candle Pattern ?
4) Custom Trendicator Divergence: Chart of the SP500 Futures and SMBDH Trendicator - Major Divergence
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since November 7 ) as long as we stay below 2040.5 on a daily close.
If so we turn back to a bullish phase...
We are still within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2011 support and 2048 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a resistance trendline that started on July 3 with 2040.5 as resistance
( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )
We need to stay below 2040.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2040.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strength.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close ( It did on November 7 ) , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1963.5 for now
IF 2040.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bullish phase ; then 2052.5 MAX 2063 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1963.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1963.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1901 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2019 and 2034.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 7 Runaway Train ?
On November 5, we had our first close above the previous top at 2014.5
then triggering a tiny break out scenario with my first target at 2033
already reached this morning.
Market is trading like a runaway train and is turning quite complacent.
Some Comments:
1) HVOL Indicator the most complacent since September 2014 - see link below
2) Follow the YEN as Trend Indicator
3) Financials ( XLF ETF double top at 24.15 ) and will be the leader into the consolidation phase
4) Seasonals are back on the correction phase
5) The Old Rising Wedge is still at play
With 2027.5 support (red line on 1rst chart below) and 2039.5 as resistance
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on November 6 was 2017.5...
The level for the greedy today to stay bullish is 2027.5..
I need a daily close below the 2027.5 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1963 and next big resistance is the high of November 5 at 2033...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2019 to 2039.5.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) NAMO Short Term Indicator : SP500 Financials HVol: Complacent Market ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 2027.5 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 2003.5 support and 2042 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 2027.5 support and 2039.5 as resistance
We need to stay above 2027.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2027.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2020.5 MAX 2033 as targets for now - Reached on October 29 for the 1978 level and November 7 for the 2033 level.
IF 2027.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 2003.5 MAX 1963 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1963 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1963 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1900 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2019 and 2039.5.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 6
Again like yesterday I am asking myself if we will have a consolidation in
time and just a little in price. Today can bring the answer IF we do close
below 2017.5...
Some Comments:
1) NAMO Indicator the most overbought of the past 3 years - see link below
2) Follow the YEN as Trend Indicator
3) Financials ( XLF ETF gapped up yesterday ) and will be the leader
into the consolidation phase
4) Seasonals are back on the correction phase
5) The Old Rising Wedge is still at play
With 2017.5 support (red line on 1rst chart below) and 2028 as resistance
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on November 5 was 2009...
The level for the greedy today to stay bullish is 2017.5..
We had our first close above the 2014.5 level - IF we close above 2017.5 today, then the double top scenario is canceled. IF we do so, expect another bullish impulse to MAX 2033...
I need a daily close below the 2017.5 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1962 and next big resistance is the high of November 5 at 2020.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1996 to 2020.5.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) NAMO Short Term Indicator : NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) The YEN is Warning us: SP500 : SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 2009 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1996.5 support and 2033 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 2017.5 support and 2022 as resistance
We need to stay above 2017.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2017.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2020.5 MAX 2033 as targets for now - Reached on October 29 the 1978 level.
IF 2017.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1962 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1962 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1962 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1899 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1996 and 2020.5.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 5 Time vs Price ?
Not much have changed for me; I am just wondering if we will have a
consolidation in time and just a little in price. Today can bring the
answer IF we do close below 2009...
Some Comments:
1) The VIX Index started to rise again
2) Follow the YEN as Trend Indicator
3) Seasonals are back on the correction phase
4) The Old Rising Wedge is still at play
With 2009 support (red line on 1rst chart below) and 2022.5 as resistance
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on November 3 was 1999.5...
The level for the greedy today to stay bullish is 2009..
I am just wondering if we are within a double top situation; for me, only a
daily close above 2014.50 will clear that case. IF we do so, expect another bullish impulse to MAX 2031.5...
I need a daily close below the 2009 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1961.5 and next big resistance is the high of November 3 at 2019...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 2000 to 2019.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator : SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Bullish ?
3) The YEN is Warning us: SP500 : SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 2009 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are within an adjusted uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1990.5 support and 2027 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 2009 support and 2022.5 as resistance
We need to stay above 2009 for that scenario to unfold. That 2009 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2017 MAX 2031.5 as targets for now - Reached on October 29 the 1978 level.
IF 2009 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1961 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1961.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1961.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1898 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 2000 and 2019.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 4 Shooting Star ?
I think we are near reversal and resuming downtrend:
1) We had yesterday a Shooting Star Candle Pattern
2) The Yen is Taking a pause - see link below
3) Seasonals are back on the correction phase
4) Short term indicators are way overbought - see link below
5) The Old Rising Wedge is still at play
With 1999.5 support (red line on 1rst chart below) and 2015.5 as resistance
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on November 3 was 1989.5...
The level for the greedy today to stay bullish is 1999.5..
I am just wondering if we are within a double top situation; for me, only a
daily close above 2014.50 will clear that case. IF we do so, expect another bullish impulse to MAX 2033...
I need a daily close below the 1999.5 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1961 and next big resistance is the high of November 3 at 2019...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1999 to 2019.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator : SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
3) The YEN is Warning us: SP500 : SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 1999.5 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are trading outside an uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1960 support and 1994 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1999.5 support and 2015.5 as resistance
We need to stay above 1999.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1999.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2017 MAX 2029.5 as targets for now - Reached on October 29 the 1978 level.
IF 1999.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1961 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1961 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1961 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1897 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1999 and 2019.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Nov 3 Near Reversal ?
I think we are near reversal and resuming downtrend:
1) Seasonals are back on the correction phase
2) Short term indicators are way overbought - see link below
3) The Old Rising Wedge is still at play
With 1989.5 support and 2008 as resistance
4) PVT in a huge divergence pattern - see link below
5) Market overshoot on BOJ monetary stimulus - not good economic data
6) Small Speculators SP Midcap Futures - the longest ever - see link below
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on October 31 was 1980...
The level for the greedy today to stay bullish is 1989.5..
I am just wondering if we are within a double top situation; for me, only a
daily close above 2014.50 will clear that case. IF we do so, expect another bullish impulse to MAX 2035.5...
I need a daily close below the 1989.5 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1960 and next big resistance is the high of October 31 at 2017...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1994 to 2017.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: SP500 :
Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Indicator the most Overbought of the past 3 Years ?
3) PVT is Warning us: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
4) Market Positioning : E-Mini SP Midcap Futures COT: Small Speculators: The Longest Position Ever ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 1989.5 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are trading outside an uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1955 support and 1988.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1989.5 support and 2008 as resistance
We need to stay above 1989.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1989.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 2017 MAX 2029.5 as targets for now - Reached on October 29 the 1978 level.
IF 1989.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1960 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1960 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1960 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1896 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1994 and 2017.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 31 Tricky Month End ?
2 days ago I wrote:
The market did reached the 1978 target level; two way to play it;
1) for the conservative players, turn neutral here
2) for the greedy, wait the confirmation correction level at 1963 (daily close).
For the greedy, the confirmation level for on October 30 was 1972...
Seems the greedy won that one...
The level for the greedy today is 1980..
Already month end; we had for the past month an underpeformance of
stocks over bonds; so I do not expect asset reallocation being negatives for stocks today.
I am just wondering if we are within a double top situation; for me, only a
daily close above 2014.50 will clear that case. IF we do so, expect another bullish impulse to MAX 2035.5...
The Market is still at Crossroads:
1) An adjusted rising wedge with 1980 support and 2001 as resistance
2) Seasonals turning bearish til November 1.
3) Long Term Indicators - Risk taking is not as agressive as it was in September - see link below
4) Expect Volatility to be back in the next few trading sessions - see link below
5) Small Speculators increased tremendously their long positions in the E-Mini SP500. See 3rd chart below.
I need a daily close below the 1980 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1960 and next big resistance is the high of October 31 at 2017...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 1.
Then today I expect a range from 1994 to 2017.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Expect Volatility to be Back: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Long Term Indicator: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk On Behavior ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode - greedy are still long ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 1980 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are trading outside an uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1951 support and 1985 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1980 support and 2001 as resistance
We need to stay above 1980 for that scenario to unfold. That 1980 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1958 MAX 1978 as targets for now - Reached on October 29.
IF 1980 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1960 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1960 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1960 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 1.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1895 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1994 and 2017.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 30 My PVT - a Real Concern ?
Yesterday I wrote:
The market did reached the 1978 target level; two way to play it;
1) for the conservative players, turn neutral here
2) for the greedy, wait the confirmation correction level at 1963 (daily close).
For the greedy, the confirmation level for today is 1972...
I started to be really concerned by the PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) lately
as a major divergence are still on - see link below
The Market is still at Crossroads:
1) A rising wedge with 1972 support and 1980.5 as resistance
2) Seasonals turning bearish til November 1.
3) Long Term Indicators - Ratio of Stocks to Bonds could be a problem - see link below
4) Expect Volatility to be back in the next few trading sessions - see link below
5) Small Speculators increased tremendously their long positions in the E-Mini SP500. See 3rd chart below.
I need a daily close below the 1972 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 50 DMA ( 23.13 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 23.44.
Next big support is the thin red line at 1925 and next big resistance is the high of September 30 at 1978...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 1.
Then today I expect a range from 1960 to 1981.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) My PVT a Real Concern: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence Still ?
3) Expect Volatility to be Back: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Long Term Indicator: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Back Into the Critical Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a neutral mode ( since October 29 ) as long as we stay above 1972 on a daily close. If so we turn bearish...
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1946 support and 1980.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1972 support and 1980.5 as resistance
We have a support trendline that started on September 19 with 1925 as the level for today.
We need to stay above 1972 for that scenario to unfold. That 1972 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1958 MAX 1978 as targets for now - Reached on October 29.
IF 1972 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1959.5 MAX 1944.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1959.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1959.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bearish trade pattern til November 1.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1894 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1960 and 1981.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 29 Target Reached ?
Two days ago I wrote: I think we already seen that impulse near the
50 DMA ( high was 1965.75 on October 27 ) but can extend to MAX 1978
now in the next few sessions...
The market did reached the 1978 target level; two way to play it;
1) for the conservative players, turn neutral here
2) for the greedy, wait the confirmation correction level at 1963 (daily close).
The Market is still at Crossroads:
1) Market get over a rising wedge with 1963 support and 1975.5 as resistance
2) Seasonals turning bullish til October 29.
3) Short term Indicators near Overbought - see link below
4) Long Term Indicators Bullish - Ratio of DJ Transports / Industrials Highest Ever - see link below
5) Expect Volatility to be back in the next few trading sessions - see link below
6) Small Speculators increased tremendously their long positions in the E-Mini SP500. See 3rd chart below.
I need a daily close below the 1963 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 50 DMA ( 23.11 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 23.38.
Next big support is the thin red line at 1928 and next big resistance is the high of September 30 at 1978...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
Then today I expect a range from 1967 to 1981.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicator: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Near Overbought Zone ?
3) Expect Volatility to be Back: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: Highest Ever ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1963 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1941.5 support and 1975.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1963 support and 1975.5 as resistance
We have a support trendline that started on September 19 with 1928 as the level for today.
We need to stay above 1963 for that scenario to unfold. That 1963 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1958 MAX 1978 as targets for now.
IF 1963 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1944.5 MAX 1921 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1959.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1959.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1893.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1967 and 1981.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 28 My Rising Wedge ?
Not much have changed since the past few days... But a new rising wedge
appeared on my radar...
On October 24 I wrote that a daily close above a thin red line at 1939.5 then
( resistance - see 1st chart below ) will trigger a bullish impulse to the
50 DMA at 1958 MAX 1973...
I think we already seen that impulse near the 50 DMA ( high was 1965.75
on October 27 ) but can extend to MAX 1978 now in the next few sessions...
The Market is still at Crossroads:
1) Market evolving within a rising wedge with 1951.5 support and 1971.5 as resistance
2) Closed above the 50 DMA now at 1959.1
3) Within the impulse scenario to the 50 DMA MAX 1978
4) Seasonals turning bullish til October 29.
5) Long Term Indicators turned Bullish - see link below
6) Small Speculators increased tremendously their long positions in the E-Mini SP500. See 3rd chart below.
I need a daily close below the 1951.5 level ( support trendline from the rising wedge - chart below - red line ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 50 DMA ( 23.10 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 23.13.
Next big support is the thin red line at 1931 and next big resistance is the high of September 30 at 1978...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
Then today I expect a range from 1952 to 1972.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Market Risk: SP500 Financials and VIX: Market Not Fearless ?
3) Long Term Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1951.5 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 23 with 1937 support and 1971.5 as resistance.
Also, we have to take into account a rising wedge that started on October 23 with 1951.5 support and 1971.5 as resistance
We have a support trendline that started on September 19 with 1931 as the level for today.
We need to stay above 1951.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1951.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1958 MAX 1978 as targets for now.
IF 1951.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1921 MAX 1893 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1959.1 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bullss.
Already starting to trade below the 1959.1 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1892.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1952 and 1972.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 27 Market Still at Crossroads ?
On October 24 I wrote that a daily close above a thin red line at 1939.5 then
( resistance - see 1st chart below ) will trigger a bullish impulse to the
50 DMA at 1958 MAX 1973...
I think we already seen that impulse near the 50 DMA ( high was 1965.75 )
but can extend to MAX 1978 now...
The Market is still at Crossroads:
1) Testing the 50 DMA now at 1958.8
2) Within the impulse scenario to the 50 DMA MAX 1978
3) Long Term Indicators turned Bullish - see link below
4) Market in a bull wave but behave like a bear market
5) Seasonals turning bullish til October 29.
6) Small Speculators increased tremendously their long positions in the E-Mini SP500. See 3rd chart below.
Market is in a weird phase as he keep grinding up but act as within a bear market: DJ Transports outperform DJ Industrials and the SP500 Utilities Sector XLU tested the high ever of December 2007 - see link below.
So the market does not seem convince of that last bull wave as defensive sectors are doing very well...
I need a daily close below the 1944 level ( high of October 22 ) to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 50 DMA ( 23.09 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 23.10.
Next big support is the thin red line at 1934 and next big resistance is the high of September 30 at 1978...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
Then today I expect a range from 1945 to 1969.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Short Term Indicators: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Ratio Near Resistance Trendline ?
3) Long Term Indicators: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
4) Market Behave like a Bear Market: SP500 Utilities Sector: Tested the High Ever of December 2007 ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1944 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 17 with 1957 support and 2010 as resistance.
Also, we still have to take into account a uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1866 support and 1941 as resistance
We have a support trendline that started on September 19 with 1934 as the level for today.
We need to stay above 1944 for that scenario to unfold. That 1944 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1958 MAX 1978 as targets for now.
IF 1944 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1921 MAX 1890 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958.8 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958.8 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bullish trade pattern til October 29.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1945 and 1969.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 24 Market at Crossroads ?
Yesterday I wrote: I started to put my focus on a thin red line
( resistance - see 1st chart below ) now at 1939.50.
Having a daily close above will trigger a bullish impulse to the 50 DMA
at 1958 MAX 1973...
I think we already seen that impulse near the 50 DMA ( high was 1956.25 )
The Market is now at Crossroads:
1) Stuck between the 20 and 50 DMA
2) Seen the impulse yesterday near the 50 DMA
3) Short Term Indicators into the Overbought Zone - see links below
4) Market very sensitive to headlines
5) Illiquidity Prevail into the markets
I need a daily close below the thin red line ( support - see 1st chart below ) now at 1937 to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 200 DMA ( 22.37 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 22.88.
Next big support is the 200 DMA at 1891 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 1958.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
Then today I expect a range from 1922 to 1951.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Indicators Overbought:
SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Overbought Level ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1937 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 17 with 1937 support and 1990 as resistance.
Also, we still have to take into account a uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1859 support and 1933 as resistance
We have a support trendline that started on September 19 with 1937 as the level for today.
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1937 for that scenario to unfold. That 1937 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1944 MAX 1958 as targets for now.
IF 1937 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1915 MAX 1890 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1920 and 1951.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 23 The Thin Red Line ?
Yesterday I wrote: The Rebound have been a lot stronger than expected.
I was thinking 1915 and fade and we did on the overnight session as high
as 1943.75... Way overdone according to me...
We did correct yesterday and traded as low as 1920.25 and close very
near my level but not enough for me to trigger the alternative scenario.
I need a daily close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1923
to confirm that the correction phase has begun...
We are back with a bullish mode as long as we stay above 1923.
I started to put my focus on a thin red line ( resistance - see 1st chart below ) now at 1939.50.
Having a daily close above will trigger a bullish impulse to the 50 DMA at 1958 MAX 1973...
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 200 DMA ( 22.36 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 22.66.
Next big support is the 200 DMA at 1890 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 1958...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
Then today I expect a range from 1915 to 1944.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Two factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Follow the Financials: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Level not seen since December 2011 ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1923 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 17 with 1921 support and 1973 as resistance.
Also, we still have to take into account a uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1851 support and 1927 as resistance
We have a resistance ttrendline thta started on September 19 with 1939.5 as the level for today.
Having a daily close above will trigger a bullish impulse to the 50 DMA at 1958 MAX 1973...
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1923 for that scenario to unfold. That 1923 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1944 MAX 1958 as targets for now.
IF 1923 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1915 MAX 1890 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1915 and 1944.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 22 Overbought ?
The Rebound have been a lot stronger than expected. I was thinking 1915
and fade and we did on the overnight session as high as 1943.75...
Way overdone according to me...
Especially in the context of illiquidity as we can see with the PVT below;
a strong rebound but with no volume...
Already breaking the 1931 level will be the first sign and a daily close
below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1926 will confirm the
correction phase has begun...
We are back with a bullish mode as long as we stay above 1926.
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 200 DMA ( 22.35 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 22.87.
Next big support is the 200 DMA at 1890 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 1958...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
Then today I expect a range from 1915 to 1944.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Technical Indicator: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence Still ?
3) Only a Rebound: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Technical Rebound Only ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1926 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 17 with 1905 support and 1958 as resistance.
Also, we still have to take into account a uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1844 support and 1919.5 as resistance
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1926 for that scenario to unfold. That 1926 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1944 MAX 1958 as targets for now.
IF 1926 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1915 MAX 1890 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1915 and 1944.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 21 The Battle of the 200 DMA ?
Yesterday I wrote: We are back with a correction mode as long as we stay
below 1897. .
And we did close at 1900, then cancelling a downtrend wave for this week...
I still fear saloon s door where the market start to fall again going into
Friday s trading session.
But do not be mislead here, from a Dead Cat Bounce wave that exceeded
my level, I fear that we will retest the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
soon at 1889...
The Yen is giving us a warning sign ( see below for link )...
We are back with a bullish mode as long as we stay above 1889.
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were finally able to close over the 200 DMA ( 22.35 ) and stayed over it... It did close at 22.45.
Next big support is the 200 DMA at 1889 and next big resistance is the bottom made on Oct 9 at 1915...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
Then today I expect a range from 1885 to 1906.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Short Term Technical Indicator: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : From Oversold Level ?
3) Yen back in Play: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in a bullish mode ( since October 20 ) as long as we stay above 1889 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1838 support and 1915 as resistance
Also, we still have to take into account a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1864 support and 1900.5 as resistance.
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1889 for that scenario to unfold. That 1889 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close ( it did on October 20 ) then back to a bullish phase ; then 1906 MAX 1915 as targets for now.
IF 1889 break down on a daily close , then expect another bear phase ; then 1872 MAX 1864 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1885 and 1906.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 20 My Dead Cat Bounce Wave ?
CHARTS NOT UPDATED - TECHNICAL ISSUE
Last Friday I wrote: This is option expiration week which historically, we
close on a stronger note at the end of the week. I still fear saloon s door
where the market catch a bid going into Friday s trading session.
But do not be mislead here, for me we are into a Dead Cat Bounce wave
that ONLY a closing above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1888.5
will change to a Bullish Phase...
And we did close at 1881, then resuming a downtrend wave for this week...
We are back with a correction mode as long as we stay below 1897.
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. We were unable to close over the 200 DMA ( 22.35 ) and stay over it... It did close quite near at 22.32.
Next big resistance is the 200 DMA at 1889 and next big support is the bottom made on March17 at 1810...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
Then today I expect a range from 1874 to 1894.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: Failed to Get Back Into the Uptrend Channel ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are back in correction mode ( since October 17 ) as long as we stay below 1897 on a daily close.
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on October 15 with 1826 support and 1897 as resistance
Also, we still have to take into account a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1869 support and 1906 as resistance.
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay below 1897 for that scenario to unfold. That 1897 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the dead cat bounce mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1897 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1906 MAX 1915 as targets for now.
IF 1869 break down on a daily close , then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1852.5 MAX 1826 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a bear trade pattern til October 25.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1874 and 1894.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 17
Yesterday I wrote: This is option expiration week which historically, we
close on a stronger note at the end of the week. I still fear saloon s door
where the market catch a bid going into Friday s trading session.
Also yesterday, we almost tested the low of October 15 at 1813 ( it did
trade as low as 1815.25 ) and rebounded violently, a good technical
reversal sign indeed.
Technical Indicators are well into oversold zone on a short term basis and
Historical Volatility reached a level near panic yesterday. ( see links below ).
But do not be mislead here, for me we are into a Dead Cat Bounce wave that ONLY a closing above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1888.5 will change to a Bullish Phase...
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce mode as long as we stay above 1852.5.
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. It will be interesting IF able to get over the 200 DMA and stay over it...
Next big resistance is the 200 DMA at 1888.5 and next big support is the bottom made on March17 at 1810...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1852 to 1889.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator Oversold:
SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Back to December 2012 Level ?
NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Short Term Oversold ?
3) Fear Already Prices: SP500 and Russel Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Price Into the Market ?
4) Follow the Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Near Panic Level ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce mode ( since October 16 ) as long as we stay above 1852.5 on a daily close.
We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on October 10 with 1815 support and 1865.5 as resistance
Also, we still have to take into account a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1874.5 support and 1911 as resistance.
We have also that resistance trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1852.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1852.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the dead cat bounce mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1888.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1906 MAX 1811 as targets for now.
IF 1852.5 break down on a daily close , then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1832 MAX 1810 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1958.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1958.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1852 and 1889.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 16 Did you Capitulate my Dear ?
Yesterday I wrote: The next leg of that market will be decided by the
Financials. We must have a closer look at them ( I follow the XLF ETF ).
That XLF is very near its 200 DMA now at 22.34. IF broken, expect another
nasty bear wave.
Financials did broke the 200 DMA and lead the way of capitulation
yesterday in the SP500. What bells me that we reached that behavior
are well performing names like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook, they were
under tremendous pressure.
Historical Volatility reached a level near panic ( see link below ).
Financials will still be the sector to watch for any turnaround. Some say that the Russell 2000 already start it; for me it is only SP500 catching up and portfolio managers are rebalancing.
We are in a bear mode as long as we stay below 1865.5.
This is option expiration week which historically, we close on a stronger note at the end of the week.
I still fear saloon s door where the market catch a bid going into Friday s trading session.
Next big resistance is the 200 DMA at 1888 and next big support is the bottom made on March17 at 1810...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1832 to 1865.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator Near Oversold: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Lowest of the past 3 Years ?
3) Follow the Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Near Panic Level ?
4) The Russell Enigma: Ratio: Russell 2000 over SP500: Reversal ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bear mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay below 1865.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on October 10 with 1815 support and 1865.5 as resistance
Also, we still have to take into account a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1880 support and 1916 as resistance.
We have also that resistance trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay below 1865.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1865.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bear mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1865.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1880.5 MAX 1888 as targets for now.
IF 1880.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on October 13 ), then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1832 MAX 1810 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1960 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1960 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1832 and 1865.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 15 Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ?
Yesterday I wrote: Now, the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1887.5
becomes the huge resistance level... As long as we stay below that level,
I don t see how we can be constructive on the market even if short term
technicals are into oversold territory.
We did test the 200 DMA ( even trade as high as 1892.75 ) and tumbled
in the afternoon trading session; a typical technical rejection case.
The next leg of that market will be decided by the Financials. We must
have a closer look at them ( I follow the XLF ETF ). That XLF is very near
its 200 DMA now at 22.34. IF broken, expect another nasty bear wave.
We are in a bear mode as long as we stay below 1883.
This is option expiration week which historically, we close on a stronger note at the end of the week.
I still fear saloon s door where the market catch a bid going into Friday s trading session.
Next big resistance is the 200 DMA at 1888 and next big support is the bottom made on May 15 at 1845...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1857 to 1883.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator Near Oversold: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bearish ?
3) Follow the Financials ( 200 DMA ): SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Major Support Trendline Broken ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bear mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay below 1883 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on October 10 with 1834 support and 1883 as resistance
Also, we still have to take into account a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1885 support and 1922 as resistance.
We have also that resistance trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay below 1883 for that scenario to unfold. That 1883 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bear mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1883 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1893 MAX 1906 as targets for now.
IF 1880.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on October 13 ), then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1857.5 MAX 1845 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1961 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1961 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 14 to 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1857 and 1883.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 14 Any Risk Taker Out There ?
Yesterday I wrote: As long as we do we stay above that line
( 1880.5 for today ) - the risk is a rebound / range trade: I was wrong.
I was expecting a dead cat bounce ( it was so short live ).
Also, Yesterday in a very illiquid market and mainly at the close, the
behavior of traders really showed up: it is now became a hot potato game
and players are reluctant to take risks.
I still fear saloon s door where the market catch a bid going into
Friday s trading session.
Now, the 200 DMA at 1887.5 becomes the huge resistance level...
As long as we stay below that level, I don t see how we can be construcitve on the market even if short term technicals are into oversold territory.
This is option expiration week which historically, we close on a stronger note at the end of the week.
Next big resistance is the 200 DMA at 1887.5 and next big support is the bottom made on May 15 at 1845...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 13 to 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1850 to 1882.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Last Bull Impulse ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Oversold Zone ?
3) Any Risk Taker: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Back to November 2013 ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bear mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay below 1887.5.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1890 support and 1926 as resistance.
We have also that resistance trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay below 1887.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1887.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bear mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1887.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1906 MAX 1926 as targets for now.
IF 1880.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on October 13 ), then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1861 MAX 1849 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1962 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1962 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 13 to 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1850 and 1882.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 13 A Short Term Bottom ?
Last Friday I wrote: We came back below that support trendline at 1940.5,
then triggering the risk of a nasty bear phase...
My Ultimate target on that correction wave was the 200 DMA at 1887...
We did trade 1880.5 in the overnight session.
That level ( 1880.5 ) will act as strong support for now.
Then, for me, back to a dead cat bounce only... And a range trade pattern
according to seasonals. A daily close above 1932 will trigger the bullish phase...
As long as we do we stay above that line ( 1880.5 for today ) - the risk
is a rebound / range trade, ( See second chart below - amber line and ellipse )
This is option expiration week which historically, we close on a stronger note at the end of the week.
Next big resistance is the support trendline at 1941.5 and next big support is the bottom made on October 13 at 1880.5...
Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 13 to 20.
Then today I expect a range from 1880 to 1905.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Last Bull Impulse ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator on SP600: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Oversold Zone ?
3) Long Term Dow Theory: SP500 , Dow Jones Industrials and Transports : Houston, We Have a Problem !
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a dead cat bounce mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay above 1880.5.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1895 support and 1932 as resistance.
We have also that support trendline ( top of May 13 at 1883, low of August 8 at 1882.75 and low of October 13 at 1880.5 ) at 1880.5
We need to stay above 1880.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1880.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the dead cat bounce mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1932 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1942.5 MAX 1963 as targets for now.
IF 1880.5 break down on a daily close, then expect another nasty bear phase ; then 1861 MAX 1849 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1963 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1963 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a range trade pattern from October 13 to 20.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1880.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1830 max 1789...
The market should trade today between 1880 and 1905.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead.
Oct 10 Saloon s Door Experiment ?
Yesterday I wrote: For me, it is a dead cat bounce only... A daily close
above the 20 DMA at 1972 will trigger the bullish phase...
Well it was quicker and violent than I was expecting that pullback indeed:
welcome to the sallon s door experiment and a brand new bear wave...
We came back below that support trendline at 1940.5, then triggering
the risk of a nasty bear phase...
As long as we do we stay below that line ( 1941.5 for today ) - the risk
of a huge slippage is at his maximum, then going to test the
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1887.
( See second chart below - amber line and ellipse )
Next big resistance is the support trendline at 1941.5 and next big support is the 200 DMA at 1887...
I still think we will have a step by step market bear gaps with steep rally -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
To change that bear phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1937
( then back to a bear mode, not a correction mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a grinding pattern from October 9 to 14.
Then today I expect a range from 1907 to 1928.
On the Stoctwits stream, it is still the buy the dip mentality...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
2) Short Term Tech Indicator on SP600: SP600 : Volume A/D: Not Oversold Yet ?
3) Risk Taking Gone: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Taking Collapsing ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bear mode ( since October 9 ) as long as we stay below 1937.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1900 support and 1937 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1937 for that scenario to unfold. That 1937 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1937 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1945 MAX 1963 as targets for now.
IF 1940.5 break down on a daily close( it did on October 9 ), then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1918 MAX 1900 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1963 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1963 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a grinding pattern from October 9 to 14.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1940.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1918 max 1887...
The market should trade today between 1907 and 1928.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Oct 9 Dovish FED ?
A Dovish FED gave the market the reason to get over from the oversold
technical conditions that was prevailing on the past 2 days.
For me, it is a dead cat bounce only... A daily close above the 20 DMA
at 1972 will trigger the bullish phase...
We came back above that support trendline at 1939, then cancelling
the risk of a nasty bear phase...
As long as we do we stay over that line ( 1940.5 for today ) - the risk
of a huge slippage is minimal, unless oterwise, then going to test the
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1887.
( See second chart below - amber line and ellipse )
Next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 1972 and next big support is the support trendline at 1940...
I still think we will have a step by step market rally with steep sell off -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
To change that dead cat bounce phase for today, we will need a daily close below 1940.5
( then back to a bear mode, not a correction mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that Seasonals turn on a grinding pattern from October 9 to 14.
Then today I expect a range from 1955 to 1972.
On the Stoctwits stream, it is still the buy the dip mentality...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Two factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Bearish Trend ?
2) Volatility will Prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a dead cat bounce mode ( since October 8 ) as long as we stay above 1940.5.
We are within an uptrend channel that started on October 7 with 1926 support and 1972 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1940.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1940.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1972 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 1978 MAX 1992.5 as targets for now.
IF 1940.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1918 MAX 1905 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1964 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1964 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals turn on a grinding pattern from October 9 to 14.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1940.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1918 max 1887...
The market should trade today between 1955 and 1972.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Oct 8 My Broken Amber Line ?
Yesterday I wrote: IF ever we do break that support trendline at 1937.5,
then we will have a major change in trend. So from a tiny correction phase,
we will proceed with a nasty bear phase...
We did break yesterday that Major Support Trendline that started on
February 2014 at 1937.5 ( today s level is 1939 )
( See second chart below - amber line and ellipse )
As long as we do no get over that line ( 1939 for today ) - the risk is a huge
slippage and then going to test the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1885.
So the next few sessions will be critical in that sense:
Do we get back over it or not...
Do not be misled here - the trend and risk are still tilted on the downside...
Next big resistance is at 1939 and next big support is the 200 DMA at 1885...
I still think we will have a step by step market decline with short rallies -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
To change that bearish phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1939
( then back to a consolidation mode, not a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that from October 6 to 9, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1918 to 1939.
On the Stoctwits stream, it is still the buy the dip mentality...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Four factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Bearish Trend ?
2) PVT Confirm Bear Trend: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Back to February 2014 Level ?
3) Short Term Technicals ( Retail ): ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Oversold Zone ?
4) Old School Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: Dow Theory Warning ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bear phase mode ( since October 6 ) as long as we stay below 1939.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1910.5 support and 1946.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1939 for that scenario to unfold. That 1939 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1939 break up on a daily close then back to a consolidation phase ; then 1946.5 MAX 1964 as targets for now.
IF 1937.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on October 7 ), then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1918 MAX 1910.5 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1964 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1964 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from October 6 to 9, seasonals are quite bearish.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1937.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1918 max 1885...
The market should trade today between 1918 and 1939.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Oct 7 Kissed the 50 DMA and Tumble ?
Yesterday morning, we did reached My Dead Cat Bounce target of the 50 DMA
at 1965. We did extend a little bit more to 1971 before resuming downtrend .
That was not a good technical scenario: a kiss to the 50 DMA and tumble...
Do not be misled here - the trend and risk are still tilted on the downside...
Next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 1964.5 and next big support is the
Major Support Trendline that started on February 2014 at 1937.5...
I still think we will have a step by step market decline with short rallies -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
IF ever we do break that support trendline at 1937.5, then we will have a
major change in trend. So from a tiny correction phase, we will proceed with a nasty bear phase...
To change that bearish phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1964.5
( then back to a consolidation mode, not a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that from October 6 to 9, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1937 to 1956.
On the Stoctwits stream, it is still the buy the dip mentality...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Bearish Trend ?
2) Financials will Dictate the Trend: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Still Bearish ?
3) Old School Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: Dow Theory Warning ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since October 6 ).
We broke on October 6 a new uptrend channel that started on October 2 with 1955.5 support and 1983.5 as resistance for today.
We are now back within a downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1916 support and 1952 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1964.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1964.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1964.5 break up on a daily close then back to a consolidation phase ; then 1971 MAX 1976 as targets for now.
IF 1937.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a nasty bear phase ; then 1918 MAX 1916 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1964.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1964.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from October 3 to 6, seasonals are quite bearish.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1937.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1916 max 1885...
The market should trade today between 1937 and 1956.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Oct 6 Near Resuming Downtrend ?
The Dead Cat Bounce Phase have reached my target of the 50 DMA at 1965.
We may extend a little bit more to MAX 1978 before resuming downtrend
but I am turning neutral as seasonals are back in bearish territory.
Do not be misled here - the trend and risk are still tilted on the downside...
Next big resistance is 1978 and next big support is the 50 DMA at 1965...
I still think we will have a step by step market decline with short rallies -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
Last Friday we did close near the 1965 level and did reach this morning
my target of the dead cat bounce.
To change that bearish phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1978
( then back to a consolidation mode, not a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
But we have to have in mind that from October 6 to 9, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1960 to 1978.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Two factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Bearish Trend ?
2) Market Correction through VIX: VIX and SP500: Fear Already Priced in ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a dead cat bounce mode ( since October 2 ) and near resuming downtrend.
We are back within a new uptrend channel that started on October 2 with 1955.5 support and 1983.5 as resistance for today.
We need to stay below 1978 for that scenario to unfold. That 1978 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1978 break up on a daily close then back to a consolidation phase ; then 1983.5 MAX 1992.5 as targets for now.
IF 1964.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a quicker correction ; then 1955.5 MAX 1946 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1964.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1964.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from October 3 to 6, seasonals are quite bearish.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1936 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1884 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1960 and 1978.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 26 My Broken 50 DMA ?
Yesterday I wrote: Do not be misled here - the trend and risk are still tilted
on the downside... Next big resistance is 2010.5 and next big support is the
50 DMA at 1966...
Market reversal was violent to say the least and technicians will turn quite
nervous as we broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 1965.4 ):
we did closed at 1961.5.
I still think we will have a step by step market decline with short rallies -
so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
Next big resistance is 1973.5 and next big support is the 50 DMA at 1943.5...
Yesterday we did close below the 1985.5 level, triggering back a bearish scenario for the next few sessions...
To change that bearish phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1973.5
( then back to a consolidation mode, not a bullish mode ).
Financials tested a Major Support Trendline and the 20 DMA in the past two sessions. But for me, I will start to be really concerned when the XLF will break the 50 DMA... We are quite near - 23.02 is the level for today.
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since March 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1954 to 1966.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) PVT is Giving a Confirmation : SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Divergence Confirmed ?
3) A Liquidity Warning Sign : Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell = SP500 at 1375 ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bearish mode ( since September 25 ).
We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on September 3 with 1954 support and 1975.5 as resistance for today.
Also, another downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1943.5 support and 1973.5 as resistance for today.
We need to stay below 1973.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1973.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the bearish mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1985.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 25 ), then expect a quicker correction ; then 1954 MAX 1943.5 for now.
IF 1973.5 break up on a daily close then back to a consolidation phase ; then 1982 MAX 1986.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1966 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls. It did on September 25.
Already starting to trade below the 1966 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1954 and 1966.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 25 From Dead Cat Bounce to Consolidation ?
From Dead Cat Bounce to Consolidation ?
Yesterday I wrote: All that to say that we can expect a dead cat bounce
towards MAX the 20 DMA (Day Moving Averages) now at 1988.6.
We had our dead cat bounce yesterday; a little stronger than expected and
closing above the treshold level then triggering a consolidation period
and not a bul trend.
Why so, because I think we will have a step by step market decline with
short rallies - so a choppy trading pattern for sure for the next few weeks.
Do not be misled here - the trend and risk are still tilted on the downside...
Next big resistance is 2010.5 and next big support is the 50 DMA at 1966...
Yesterday we did close aove the 1989 level, triggering a consolidation scenario for the nex few sessions...
We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on September 15 with 1985.5 support and 2010.5 as resistance for today.
To change that consolidation phase for today, we will need a daily close below 1985.5 ( then back to a correction mode ).
Financials tested a Major Support Trendline and the 20 DMA in the past two sessions. But for me, I will start to be really concerned when the XLF will break the 50 DMA...
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since March 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1982 to 1995.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) No Fear Yet: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Still not Priced Into the Market ?
3) Another Warning Sign : SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Testing the Break Out Trendline ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a consolidation mode ( since September 24 ).
We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on September 15 with 1985.5 support and 2010.5 as resistance for today.
We need to stay above 1985.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1985.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the consolidation mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1989 break up on a daily close ( it did on September 24 ) then back to a consolidation phase ; then 2004 MAX 2010.5 as targets for now.
IF 1985.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a quicker correction ; then 1977.5 MAX 1968 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1966 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1966 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1982 and 1995.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 24 Dead Cat Bounce ?
The market sold off since September 22 and then bring some short term
technical indicators on an oversold territory. Also, Seasonalities are for
a consolidation pattern til September 28.
All that to say that we can expect a dead cat bounce towards the
20 DMA (Day Moving Averages) now at 1988.6.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1965...
Yesterday we did close below the 1990.5 level, keeping the correction
scenario for the nex few sessions...
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1959 support and 1990 as resistance for today.
To change that correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1989 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
The Industrail Sector ETF XLI broke the 50 DMA (Day Moving Averages) on September 23 and the Financial Sector XLF broke the 20 DMA. That is the first real crack into the bull market. But for me, I will start to be really concerned when the XLF will break the 50 DMA...
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since March 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1968 to 1989.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Emerging Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Short Term Indicators : NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Short Term Oversold ?
3) Another Warning Sign : The Industrial Sector : Broke the 50 DMA ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since September 19 ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 19 with 1959 support and 1990 as resistance for today.
We have also to take into account the old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1984 as support and 2008.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1989 for that scenario to unfold. That 1989 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1989 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 2004 MAX 2014.5 as targets for now.
IF 1990.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 22 ), then expect a quicker correction ; then 1977 MAX 1965 for now ( almost reached on September 22 at 1968.25 ).
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1968 and 1989.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 23 My Broken 20 DMA ?
First phase of the Correction have begun: and on September 22, we broke
the 20 DMA (Day Moving Averages) then at 1989.8, now at 1990.1.
Next big support is the 50 DMA at 1965...
Market shifted very quickly from the Euphoria phase to the correction
phase sans merci...We made a new high that was rejected violently on
September 19. And a bearish Engulfing Pattern on SPY ETF... And I think
that the Emerging Financials ( EMFN - ETF ) are giving us a huge warning
by breaking their weekly uptrend channel that started in March 2014.
The behavior of the Russell 2000 is telling us also of a potential correction.
Usually, you sell the most illiquid stocks first...
Yesterday we did close below the 2004 level, keeping the correction scenario for the nex few sessions...
The other major factor to take into account is that seasonalities are turning bearish around September 20 on average of the past 20 years.
We are back within an old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1980.5 support and 2006 as resistance for today.
To change that correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1990.5 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since March 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1975 to 1990.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Emerging Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Short Term Indicators : NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Near Oversold Zone ?
3) Huge Warning Sign : Russell 2000, DJ Industrial and SP500: Russell Underperforming DJ Tremendously ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since September 19 ).
We have to take into account the old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1980.5 as support and 2006 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1990.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1990.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1990.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 2004 MAX 2014.5 as targets for now.
IF 1990.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 22 ), then expect a quicker correction ; then 1977 MAX 1965 for now
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1975 and 1990.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 22 Correction Have Begun ?
Market behavior was according to my expectations within the Euphoria
phase of the market: Fed have been dovish, Alibaba IPO price through
the sky, bullish sentiment and retail behavior are way overdone...
We made a new high that was rejected violently on September 19. And a
bearish Engulfing Pattern on SPY ETF... And I think that the Emerging
Financials ( EMFN - ETF ) are giving us a huge warning by breaking their
weekly uptrend channel that started in March 2014.
Last Friday we did close below the 2004.5 level, triggering the correction
scenario for the nex few sessions...
The other major factor to take into account is that seasonalities are turning
bearish around September 20 on average of the past 20 years.
We are back within an old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1979 support and 2004 as resistance for today.
To change that correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2004 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since March 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1990 to 2003.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Emerging Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Short Term Indicators : SP500 Index Bull% Index: Divergence ?
3) Huge Warning Sign : SP500 Emerging Financials ( XLF - EMFN ): My Broken Weekly Uptrend Channel ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since September 19 ).
We have to take into account the old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1979 as support and 2004 as resistance.
We need to stay above 2004 for that scenario to unfold. That 2004 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2004 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish phase ; then 2014.5 MAX 2025.5 as targets for now.
IF 1990.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a quicker correction ; then 1977 MAX 1965 for now
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1990 and 2003.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 19 Resistance Trendline Tested ?
We are within the Euphoria phase of that bullish mode. Fed have been
dovish, Alibaba IPO price through the sky, bullish sentiment and
retail behavior are near overdone...
We have a resistance trendline from two previous top that is at
2012.50 today. Having a close above that level can give the last bullish
impulse on that move - 2025.5 ?...
Yesterday we did close above the 2004.5 level, keeping the bullish
case intact for now. I think that last bullish impulse will be short live.
The other major factor to take into account is that seasonalities are turning
bearish around September 20 on average of the past 20 years; we re quite close. That s why I feel a saloon s door experiment...
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on September 16 with 1990 support and 2014.5 as resistance for today.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below 2002 ( then back to a bearish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since mid-June 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 2002 to 2020.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Two factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bullish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Bull Impulse ?
2) Short Term Indicators : Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bull mode ( since September 16 ).
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on September 16 with 1990 support and 2014.5 as resistance for today.
Also, we have to take into account the old uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1977 as support and 2002 as resistance.
We need to stay above 2002 for that scenario to unfold. That 2002 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bull mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2002 break down on a daily close, then expect a correction ; then 1990 MAX 1977 for now
IF 2012.5 break up on a daily close then a bullish impulse ; then MAX 2025.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1964 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1964 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 2002 and 2020.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 18 FED still Dovish ?
Yesterday we did close above the 1986 level, keeping the bullish
case intact for now. The FED dovishness with their lower inflation
expectations made a new high at 2003.25 on SP500 Futures. But do not
be misled here. I think that last bullish impulse will be short live.
The other major factor to take into account is that seasonalities are turning
bearish around September 20 on average of the past 20 years; we re quite
close. That s why I feel a saloon s door experiment...
Just take note that on September 17, we did close above the 20 DMA
( Day Moving Average - then at 1986.0 ), a good omen technically speaking...
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1975 support and 2000 as resistance for today.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below 1987 - the 20 DMA ( then back to a bearish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since mid-June 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1987 to 2003.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bullish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Bull Impulse ?
2) Short Term Indicators : SP600 : Volume A/D: Far from Overbought Zone ?
3) Divergence in PVT: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bull mode ( since September 16 ).
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1975 as support and 2000 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1987 for that scenario to unfold. That 1987 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bull mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1987 break down on a daily close, then expect a correction ; then 1975 MAX 1962 for now
IF 2000 break up on a daily close then a bullish impulse ; then MAX 2011 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1962 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1962 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1987 and 2003.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 17 Saloon s Door Experiment ?
Yesterday we did close above the 1988.5 level, triggering back the bullish
case. But do not be misled here. I think that last bullish impulse will
be short live. Yesterday huge bid came after the China QE that caught
the market by surprise. It will not repeated shorlty.
The other major factor to take into account is that seasonalities are turning
bearish around September 20 on average of the past 20 years; we re quite
close. That s why I feel a saloon s door experiment...
The Fed today will add to volatility; 2 things to watch:
1) Do they drop the considerable period - IF yes then major correction
2) Still Dovish on inflation expectations - IF yes then market is bid
Just take note that on September 16, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - then at 1984.5 ), a good omen technically speaking...
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on September 15 with 1973 support and 1997.5 as resistance for today.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below 1986 - the 20 DMA ( then back to a bearish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since mid-June 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1981 to 1998.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bullish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Bull Impulse ?
2) Market Still Complacent : VIX and SP500: Fear not Priced in Yet ?
3) Expect More Volatility Ahead: Fed exit may be bumpy ride for investors
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bull mode ( since September 16 ).
We are into a new uptrend channel that started on September 18 with 1973 as support and 1997.5 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1986 for that scenario to unfold. That 1986 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bull mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1986 break down on a daily close, then expect a correction ; then 1977 MAX 1965.5 for now
IF 1997.5 break up on a daily close then a bullish impulse ; then 2003 MAX 2011 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1961 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1961 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1981 and 1998.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 16 Correction Step by Step ?
That correction process will be a step by step mode til we reach the
bearish seasonalities after September 20. Then expect a more quick
and severe correction.
Not much have changed for me since September 12, some tiny adjustments
on technical levels...
Last Friday, September 12 we did close below our level of 1981 and then
triggering back to the correction scenario from the grinding phase scenario...
Just take note that also last Friday, we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day
Moving Average - then at 1981.3 ), a bad omen technically speaking...
We are still within a new downtrend channel that started on September 3 with 1967.5 support and 1988.5 as resistance for today.
To change that correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1988.5 ( then back to a grinding mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since mid-June 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
Also, interesting to note that yesterday, a lot of high beta stocks ( Facebook, Tesla, Linkedn, Netflix, ...)
got hammered just before the lauch this week of the Alibaba IPO: a new risk off stance from investors?
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1965 to 1980.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Yen Back in Play: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) PVT was already weakening before correction started: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Weakening ?
3) Some Technicals Indicators Diverging: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Divergence ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since September 12 ).
We are into a downtrend channel that started on September 3 with 1968.5 as support and 1990 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1988.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1988.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1988.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 1998 MAX 2003 as targets for now.
IF 1967.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a more severe correction ; then 1960.5 MAX 1943 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1960.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1960.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1917 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1882 max 1869...
The market should trade today between 1965 and 1980.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 15 Still into the Downtrend Channel ?
Shifting to the December 2014 contract (Z4 )
Last Friday, we did close below our level of 1981 and then triggering back
to the correction scenario from the grinding phase scenario...
Just take note that also last Friday, we did close below the 20 DMA ( Day
Moving Average - then at 1981.3 ).
We are still within a new downtrend channel that started on September 3
with 1968.5 support and 1990 as resistance for today.
To change that correction phase for today, we will need a daily close
above 1990 ( then back to a grinding mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
Interesting to note that small speculators are the longest since mid-June 2014 ( see 3rd chart below ).
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1965 to 1980.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals are Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Bull Impulse ?
2) A Bear MacroTech Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Now Into a Bearish Mode ?
3) Market Still Too Complacent: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since September 12 ).
We are into a downtrend channel that started on September 3 with 1968.5 as support and 1990 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1990 for that scenario to unfold. That 1990 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1990 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 1998 MAX 2003 as targets for now.
IF 1968.5 break down on a daily close, then expect a more severe correction ; then 1960.5 MAX 1943 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1960.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1960.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1868 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1965 and 1980.
Expect volatility picking up tremendously in the weeks ahead.
Sep 12 The Grind Phase ?
Yesterday I wrote: To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will
need a daily close above 1996.5. We did closed at 1997; so the tiny
correction phase is over and we are back with the grind scenario.
We have a resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line -
charts below ) - now at 2004 ( then becomes resistance ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 4 with
1980 support and 2000 as resistance for today. Also we still to take into
account an uptrend channel with 1996.5 support and 2013.5 resistance.
To change that new grinding phase for today, we will need a daily close
below 1989 ( then back to a correction mode ). And a close above 2000 today will accelerate the bullish impulse to 2004 and 2008 in the next few sessions.
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a major correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1989 to 2004.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals are Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Back to Bull Trend ?
2) Some Short Term Tech Indicators Oversold: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : From Oversold Level ?
3) HVol at Low Level: SP500 Financials HVol: Low Level on Historical Volatility ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are into a downtrend channel that started on September 4 with 1980 as support and 2000 as resistance. Also we still to take into account an uptrend channel that started August 26 with 1996.5 support and 2013.5 resistance. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2004 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1989 for that scenario to unfold. That 1989 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1996 break up on a daily close ( it did on September 11 ) then back to a bullish mode; then 2011 MAX 2016.5 as targets for now.
IF 1989 break down on a daily close , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1981.5 MAX 1968 for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1968 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1968 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern til September 20. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1875 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1989 and 2004.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 11 Tiny Correction Over ?
Still into a tiny correction mode... But... I think it s D-Day for the
correction phase. Why?:
1) We did twice tested the 1981.5 level and rebounded
2) We tested the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) twice and rebounded
3) Seasonals are shifting from range pattern to the last bullish impulse
til September 20 before a major correction.
We did closed at 1995; so the tiny correction phase continue but near
reversal I think...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2001) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2004 ( then becomes resistance ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 4 with 1981.5 support and 2001.5 as resistance for today.Also we still to take into account an uptrend channel with 1996 support and 2012.5 resistance.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 1996.5 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are back to the last bullish impulse til September 20 before a majoe correction. But we have to have in mind that from September 20 til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1986 to 1999.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals are Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Back to Bull Trend ?
2) Market Risk Skewed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
3) ETF Technicals are oversold: ETFs Volume Indicator : Oversold Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are into a downtrend channel that started on September 4 with 1981.5 as support and 2001.5 as resistance. Also we still to take into account an uptrend channel that started August 26 with 1996 support and 2012.5 resistance. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2004 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 1996.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1996.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1981.5 MAX 1966 for now. Breaking the 1983 level today will accelerate the correction process...
IF 1996 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2011 MAX 2016.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1967.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1967.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1874 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1986 and 1999.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 10 Tested the 20 DMA ?
Still into a tiny correction mode... Apple did not add to the market
bullishess at the close.
We did test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 1983.4 and rebounded
from there. Breaking that level today will be bad and accelerate the
correction phase as momentum players jump in.
We did closed at 1989.75; so the tiny correction phase continue...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2001) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2003 ( then becomes resistance ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 4 with 1983 support and 2003 as resistance for today.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2003 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range pattern today. But we have to have in mind that from mid-September til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1981 to 1992.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Technical Indicators Fading: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Weakening ?
2) Macro Signal now Bearish: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Turning Bearish ?
3) Risk Taking Behavior Stating to Change: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Starting to Fade ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are into a downtrend channel that started on September 4 with 1983 as support and 2003 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2003 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2003 for that scenario to unfold. That 2003 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1981.5 MAX 1966 for now. Breaking the 1983 level today will accelerate the correction process...
IF 2003 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2011 MAX 2016.5 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1966.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1966.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1872 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1981 and 1992.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 9 Time vs Price ?
Not much have changed for me in terms of market view. I am still into
a tiny correction mode... I am just wondering at this point if we more the
pattern to have a correction in time vs price... But we have to keep in
mind anyway that from mid-September til the 1st week of October,
seasonals are quite bearish. Also today, we must expect Apple to add to
the volatility of the market: Sep 12 options 98 straddle price a 4.3% move.
We did closed at 2000.5; so the tiny correction phase continue...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2001) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2002.5 ( then becomes resistance ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 3 ( overlap ) with 1988 support and 2007.5 as resistance for today.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2007.5 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. But we have to have in mind that from mid-September til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1994 to 2007.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market in Full Risk Mode Still: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
2) Market Still Complacent : SP500 Financials and VIX: A Warning Sign ?
3) PVT Call for a Trading Range: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on August 26 with 1994 as support and 2011 as resistance. We have also a second channel that started on September 3 with 1988 support and 2007.5 as resistance for today. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2002.5 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2007.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2007.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1981.5 MAX 1966 for now. Breaking the 1988 level today will accelerate the correction process...
IF 2007.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2016.5 MAX 2020 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1966 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1966 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1871 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1994 and 2007.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 8 Still in the Channel ?
Not much have changed for me in terms of market view. I am still into
a tiny correction mode...
Last Friday I wrote: To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a
daily close below 2009, unless the bullish phase will continue.
We did closed at 2006; so the tiny correction phase continue...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2001) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2002 ( then becomes support ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 3
( overlap ) with 1989 support and 2008.5 as resistance for today.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2008.5 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Interesting to note thta small speculators are building up a decent long position in futures ( see 3rd chart below ).
Still Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. But we have to have in mind that from mid-September til first week of October, seasonals are quite bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1996 to 2009.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market in Full Risk Mode Still: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
2) My Custom Indicator Showing Some Divergence: Chart of the SP500 Futures and SMBDH Trendicator
3) Sentiment Over Consumer Stocks Positive: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Still Bullish ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on August 26 with 1993 as support and 2010 as resistance. We have also a second channel that started on September 3 with 1989 support and 2008.5 as resistance for today. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2002 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2008.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2009 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1987.5 MAX 1981.5 for now. Breaking the 1989 level today will accelerate the correction process...
IF 2008.5 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2016.5 MAX 2020 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1965 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1965 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a bull pattern today. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1870 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1996 and 2009.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 5 Tricky NFP ?
Sep 5 Not much have changed for me in terms of market view. I am still into
a tiny correction mode...This morning we have NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls )
that can add to the volatility to the market...
Yesterday I wrote: To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a
daily close below 2008, unless the bullish phase will continue.
We did closed at 1997.75; so the tiny correction phase have begun...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2001) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2001.5 ( then becomes resistance ).
But the most interesting factor, technically speaking, is that we had on September 3rd a Shooting Star Candle Pattern on SP500 Futures. ( See first chart below - ellipse ).
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 3 ( overlap ) with 1989.5 support and 2009 as resistance for today.
Bulls will notice the cross between the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September 2 and will give them even more conviction into that market.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2009 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming another bull wave.
Then today I expect a range from 1987 to 2001.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Range Trading Pattern ?
2) Market Showing Some Divergence: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Retail Particicpation: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on August 26 with 1992 as support and 2009 as resistance. We have also a second channel that started on September 3 with 1989.5 support and 2009 as resistance for today. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2001.5 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2009 for that scenario to unfold. That 2009 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1987.5 MAX 1981.5 for now. Breaking the 1989.5 level today will accelerate the correction...
IF 2009 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2018 MAX 2022 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1963.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1963.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming into another bull wave. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1869 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1987 and 2001.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 4 My Shooting Star ?
Yesterday I wrote: To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a
daily close below 2002.5, unless the bullish phase will continue.
We did closed at 1998.75; so the tiny correction phase have begun...
Also last on September 3rd, we did closed below the resistance trendline
(then at 2000.5) that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) -
now at 2001 ( then becomes resistance ).
But the most interesting factor, technically speaking, is that we had
on September 3rd a Shooting Star Candle Pattern on SP500 Futures.
( See first chart below - ellipse ).
We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on August 28 ( overlap ) but still into a second one with 1991 support and 2008 as resistance for today.
Market is still in that major grind since August 8 but in the process of reversal.
Bulls will notice the cross between the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September 2 and will give them even more conviction into that market.
To change that tiny correction phase for today, we will need a daily close above 2008 ( then back to a bullish mode ).
Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming another bull wave.
Then today I expect a range from 1991 to 2001.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trading Pattern ?
2) That Tech Indicator is Scary: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) Market Full Speed Ahead: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since September 3rd ).
We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on August 28 with 2007 as support and 2018.5 as resistance. We have also a second channel that started on August 26 with 1991 support and 2008 as resistance for today.Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2001 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2008 for that scenario to unfold. That 2008 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on September 3 rd ) , then expect a tiny correction ; then 1987.5 MAX 1981.5 for now.
IF 2008 break up on a daily close then back to a bullish mode; then 2018 MAX 2022 as targets for now.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1962.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade below the 1962.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming into another bull wave. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1868 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1991 and 2001.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 3 Still into the Uptrend Channel ?
Yesterday I wrote: To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a
daily close below 1997, unless the bullish phase will continue.
We did closed at 1999.75; so the bull stance continue...
Also last Friday, we did closed above the resistance trendline (then at 1999)
that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) - now at 2000.5.
We are still into an uptrend channel with 2002.5 support and 2014 as
resistance for today.
Market is still in that major grind since August 8.
Bulls will notice the cross between the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on September 2 and will give them even more conviction into that market.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below 2002.5, unless the bullish phase will continue.
Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming another bull wave.
Then today I expect a range from 1999 to 2014.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trading Pattern ?
2) Market Full Speed Ahead: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
3) Bulls Looking at that Tech Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still Into a Bullish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 27 ).
We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 28 with 2002.5 as support and 2014 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2000.50 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 2002.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 2002.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 2002.5 break down on a daily close, then a tiny correction begin; then 1987.5 MAX 1881.5 for now.
IF 2014 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2022 MAX 2029 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1962 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1962 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming into another bull wave. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1867 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1999 and 2014.
Expect volatility picking up.
Sep 2 A New Uptrend Channel ?
Last Friday I wrote: To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a
daily close below 1996, unless the bullish phase will continue.
We did closed at 2001.50; so the bull stance continue...
Also last Friday, we did closed above the resistance trendline (then at 1999)
that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ).
We are into a new uptrend channel with 1997 support and 2009 as
resistance for today.
Market is still in that major grind since August 8.
Bulls will notice the cross between the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) today and will give them even more conviction into that market.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below 1997, unless the bullish phase will continue.
Expect Volatility to increase into the next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming another bull wave.
Then today I expect a range from 1997 to 2009.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trading Pattern ?
2) Technicals Weakening: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Bullish but Getting Toppish ?
3) PVT Call for a Grinding Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : A Slow Grind ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 27 ).
We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 28 with 1997 as support and 2009 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account a support trendline that started on July 3 at 2000 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1997 for that scenario to unfold. That 1997 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1997 break down on a daily close, then a tiny correction begin; then 1987.5 MAX 1881.5 for now.
IF 2009 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2016 MAX 2022 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1961 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1961 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range pattern til September 5 before resuming into another bull wave. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1865 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1997 and 2009.
Expect volatility picking up.
August 29 Tricky Month End ?
Already this morning, we broke the downtrend channel resistance at 1996
( now becomes support ), triggering back to the bullish scenario.
Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the
resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below )
at 1999 for today.
Market is still quite complacent after that major grind we had since
August 8, broken on August 27 but back on on August 29.
Technical Indicators are in reversal mode.
To change that bullish phase for today, we will need a daily close below
1996, unless the bullish phase will continue.
End of the month could be very tricky: see chart
- SP500 since July 31st is up 3.42%
- iShares US Treasurys 7-10 years IEF is
up +1.87% since July 31
Usually, it should bring sellers of equities to buy
bonds; most of the time seen at the end of the
trading session. But with the momentum of stocks
lately, will they adjust their asset mix?
All that to say that volatility will increase into the
next few sessions.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming a range trade pattern.
Then today I expect a range from 1995 to 2009.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Day Uptrend ?
2) Technicals Weakening: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence Still ?
3) Market still Complacent: VIX and SP500: Fear not Priced in Yet ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 27 ).
We still take into account are a downtrend channel that started on August 26 with 1985.5 as support and 1996 as resistance ( now becomes support ). Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1996 for that scenario to unfold. That 1996 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1996 break down on a daily close, then a tiny correction begin; then 1988.5 MAX 1881.5 for now.
IF 1999 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2009 MAX 2015 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1959 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1959 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming into a range trade pattern. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1864 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1995 and 2009.
Expect volatility picking up getting around Labor Day.
August 28 A New Downtrend Channel ?
Yesterday I wrote: Not much have changed for me since yesterday. I expect
the Bullish Channel to be broken on the downside in the next few sessions
and the volatility picking up going near Labor Day.
We did break the support trendline level at 1998.5 ( daily close at 1997 )
then triggereing the correction process within that new downtrend channel.
We are in a new downtrend channel that started on August 26
with 1987.5 as support and 1998.5 as resistance for today.
To change that corrective phase for today, we will need a daily close
above 2002.75, unless the corrective phase will continue.
Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below ) at 1999 for today.
Market is still quite complacent after that major grind we had since August 8, broken on August 27.
Technical Indicators are in reversal mode.
Retail Participants are in Full Speed and unaware of the turning point in volatility getting near Labor Day.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1987 to 1999.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 2002.75 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Pattern ?
2) Technicals Weakening: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Weaker ?
3) Market Divergence: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Divergence ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a corrective mode ( since August 26 ).
We are into a new downtrend channel that started on August 26 with 1987.5 as support and 1998.5 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay below 2002.75 for that scenario to unfold. That 2002.75 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1998.5 break down on a daily close ( it did on August 27 ) , then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1876 for now.
IF 2002.75 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2008 MAX 2013.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1959 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1959 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1863 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1987 and 1999.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up getting near Labor Day.
August 27 Uptrend Channel Still Being Challenged ?
Not much have changed for me since yesterday. I expect the Bullish
Channel to be broken on the downside in the next few sessions and the
volatility picking up going near Labor Day.
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12
with 1998.5 as support and 2022 as resistance for today.
That bullish channel is in jeopardy unless we do have a daily close above
the 1998.50 level today.
Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the
resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below )
at 1999 for today.
Market is quite complacent after that major grind we had since August 8.
Technical Indicators are at or near overbought conditions.
Retail Participants are in Full Speed and unaware of the turning point in volatility getting near Labor Day.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1988 to 2003.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1994.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Pattern ?
2) Market is Complacent: Ratio SP500 Financials over VIX : Complacent Market ?
3) Market Getting Into Overbought Condition: SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 1998.5 as support and 2022 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1998.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1998.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1998.5 break down on a daily close, then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1876 for now.
IF 1999 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2008 MAX 2013.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1957.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1957.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1862 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1988 and 2003.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up getting near Labor Day.
August 26 Uptrend Channel in Jeopardy ?
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12
with 1994.5 as support and 2017.5 as resistance for today.
That bullish channel is in jeopardy unless we do have a daily close above
the 1994.50 level.
Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the
resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below )
at 1999 for today.
Market is quite complacent after that major grind we had since August 8.
Retail Participants are in Full Speed and unaware of the turning point in volatility getting near Labor Day.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1986 to 2001.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1994.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Pattern ?
2) Market is Complacent: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Retail Buying Full Speed: ETFs Volume Indicator : Rebounding ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 1994.5 as support and 2017.5 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1994.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1994.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1994.5 break down on a daily close, then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1873 for now.
IF 1999 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2005.5 MAX 2010 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1956 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1956 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1860 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1986 and 2001
Expect volatility to be average but picking up getting near Labor Day.
August 25 Runaway Train ?
The market is trading like a runaway train.
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12
with 1988.5 as support and 2010 as resistance for today.
We need a daily close above the 1988.5 level for that bullish trend to
continue.
Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the
resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below )
at 1997.5 for today.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1986 to 2001.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1988.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Pattern ?
2) Market is Full Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
3) Market Near Short Term Overbought: SMBDH Trendicator : Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 1988.5 as support and 2010 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1997.5 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).
We need to stay above 1988.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1988.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1988.5 break down on a daily close, then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1872 for now.
IF 1997.5 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2001 MAX 2010 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1955 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.
Already starting to trade above the 1955 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1859 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1986 and 2001
Expect volatility to be average.
August 14 Turning Neutral ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25. This is my last daily: back on August 25.
I am turning neutral as we almost reached my Ultimate target of the
50 DMA as I wrote earlier:
Since last Friday Capitulation Mode and reaching a low at 1890.25, I think
we are in a Dead Cat Bounce Phase that can reach up to / near the 50 DMA
( Day Moving Average ) before resuming downtrend ( now at 1948.7 )
We are within a new steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with
1938 as support and 1953.5 as resistance.
What we have here is a dead cat bounce of a market coming from oversold conditions. The 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is now below the 50 DMA ; it will bring momentum players to be more cautious.
So we almost reached the 50 DMA yesterday at 1948.7 ( the high yesterday was 1946.5 ) before resuming downtrend.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1938 to 1950.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1942 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
Interestingly, the weekly chart is in a downtrend pattern: We are within a downtrend channel that started
on the week of July 21 with 1898 as support and 1967 as resistance. Next week levels are respectively
1892.5 and 1961.5. See second chart below.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Trading Range ?
2) Retail Participants Back on the Buy Side: ETF s Volume Indicator : Stronger ?
3) Market Near Short Term Overbought: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Short Term Near Overbought ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ) but turning neutral at those levels ( 1947 ).
We are within a new steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 1938 as support and 1953.5 as resistance. Also, we have to take into account an old uptrend channel that started on August 1 with 1924.5 as support and 1942 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1942 for that scenario to unfold. That 1942 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1942 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1912 MAX 1890 for now.
IF 1953.5 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 1956.5 MAX 1963.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1949.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 1949.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1851 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1938 and 1950
Expect volatility to be average.
August 13 Still Into My Dead Cat Bounce ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Since last Friday Capitulation Mode and reaching a low at 1890.25, I think
we are in a Dead Cat Bounce Phase that can reach up to / near the 50 DMA
( Day Moving Average ) before resuming downtrend ( now at 1948.7 )
What happened yesterday was a good technical sign indeed; we did test the
1923.5 level and rebounded from there...
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 11 with 1923.5
as support and 1942 as resistance.
What we have here is a dead cat bounce of a market coming from oversold
conditions. The 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is now below the 50 DMA ; it will bring momentum players to be more cautious.
So we can reach the 50 DMA now at 1948.7 before resuming downtrend.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1930 to 1945.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1923.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Industrials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Trading Range ?
2) Market is Bottoming Out Since August 8; SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Bottoming Out ?
3) Industrial Sector Showing Finally Some Resilience: The Industrial Sector : 200 DMA Tested ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are within a brand new uptrend channel that started on August 1 with 1923.5 as support and 1942 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1923.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1923.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1923.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1909.5 MAX 1890 for now.
IF 1937.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on August 11 ), then another bullish impulse; then 1948.5 as target.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1948.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 1948.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1850 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1930 and 1945
Expect volatility to be average.
August 12 My Dead Cat Bounce ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Since last Friday Capitulation Mode and reaching a low at 1890.25, I think
we are in a Dead Cat Bounce Phase that can reach up to / near the 50 DMA
( Day Moving Average ) before resuming downtrend.
We are above an uptrend channel that started on August 6 with 1907 as
support and 1933 as resistance.
What we have here is a dead cat bounce of a market coming from oversold
conditions. The 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) will cross the 50 DMA with the daily close today ; it will bring momentum players to be more cautious.
So we can reach the 50 DMA now at 1948.5 before resuming downtrend.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1930 to 1945.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1923.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Trading Range ?
2) Market Still Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
3) Short Term Technical Indicator Near Overbought: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Still Rebounding ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are within a brand new uptrend channel that started on August 6 with 1907 as support and 1933 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1923.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1923.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1923.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1907 MAX 1890 for now.
IF 1937.5 break up on a daily close ( it did on August 11 ), then another bullish impulse; then 1948.5 and 1950.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1948.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 1948.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1849 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1930 and 1945
Expect volatility to be average.
August 11 My New Uptrend Channel ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Last Friday I wrote: I think we already made the low at time of writing
( 1890.25 ) but the trend remain bearish into the channel.
We did close above my channel resistance ( at 1920.5 ) then triggering
the bullish impulse to 1937.5 for now from the bearish scenario.
We are within a brand new uptrend channel that started on August 6 with
1904.5 as support and 1931 as resistance.
What we have here is a dead cat bounce of a market coming from oversold conditions.
The 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) will cross the 50 DMA in the next few trading sessions; it will bring momentum players to be more cautious.
So we can reach 1937.5 MAX the 50 DMA now at 1948 before resuming downtrend.
We have to take into account that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1923 to 1937.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1917 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bearish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Trading Range ?
2) Market Risks being Repriced: SP500 and Russel Financial Services and VIX: Fear Priced Into the Market ?
3) Short Term Technical Indicator Oversold: ETF s Volume Indicator : From Oversold Territory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).
We are within a brand new uptrend channel that started on August 6 with 1904.5 as support and 1931 as resistance. We are still taking into account a downtrend Channel since August 4 with 1890.5 support and 1917 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1917 for that scenario to unfold. That 1917 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1917 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1904.5 MAX 1890 for now.
IF 1937.5 break up on a daily close, then another bullish impulse; then 1948 and 1952 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1948 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 1948 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals are for a range trade pattern til August 16 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1847 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1923 and 1937
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 8 Still Into that Downtrend Channel ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Yesterday I wrote: We can expect a trading within our channel today and
a test of the top of the range towards 1925.5 MAX 1929 before resuming
downtrend. We did trade 1925.75 before trading down.
We are still within that downtrend channel that started on August 4 with
1894.5 as support and 1920.5 as resistance.
We have to take into account that seasonals are resuming downtrend
since August 7...
I think we already made the low at time of writing ( 1890.25 ) but the trend remain bearish into the channel.
In the next few sessions, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1954.2 will cross the 50 DMA now at 1947.7 , bringing technically speaking more reasons to stay bearish.
Then today I expect a range from 1890 to 1907.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1920.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Market Risks are being Repriced: SP500 Financials and VIX : Still Weakening ?
3) Long Term Technical Indicator Bear: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still Into a Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 25 ).
We are into a new downtrend Channel since August 4 with 1894.5 support and 1920.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1920.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1920.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1894.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1887 MAX 1880 for now.
IF 1920.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1926 and 1937.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1947.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1947.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are resuming downtrend since August 7...
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1847 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1890 and 1907
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 7 Still Into that Downtrend Channel ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
We are still within that downtrend channel that started on August 4 with
1899.5 as support and 1925.5 as resistance.
Also, we have a Major Trendline that started on February 5 2014 at the
1929.5 level, now resistance.
We have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode til
August 7 and then resuming downtrend...
At this point it is difficult to say for the next few sessions if we will have a consolidationin time vs in price as we saw often but in bull waves.
We can expect a trading within our channel today and a test of the top of the range towards 1925.5 MAX 1929 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1912 to 1929.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1925.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
One factor brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Behavior is Adding to Long Positions: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
3) Short Term Technical Indicator Oversold: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Oversold ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 25 ).
We are into a new downtrend Channel since August 4 with 1899.5 support and 1925.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1925.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1925.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1899.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1890 MAX 1886 for now.
IF 1925.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1929.5 and 1937.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1947.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1947.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are in a range trade mode til August 7 and then resuming downtrend...
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1846 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1912 and 1929
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 6 A New Downtrend Channel - The Ukraine Factor ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Yesterday I wrote: We may extend for a few sessions that consolidation
before resuming downtrend as the seasonalities favor that move and short
term technical indicators are still into an oversold territory.
The consolidation period was quite short; Ukraine headline risk took the
market by surprise and we did closed below my critical level of 1919.5,
then going directly to a correction phase from a consolidation one.
We have a new downtrend channel with 1902.5 as support and 1929.5 as resistance.
Also, we have a Major Trendline that started on February 5 2014 at the 1927 level, now resistance.
We have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode til August 7...
We can expect a correction within our channel today towards 1907.5 MAX 1902.5.
Then today I expect a range from 1902 to 1923.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1929.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
One factor brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 25 ).
We are into a new downtrend Channel since August 4 with 1902.5 support and 1929.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1929.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1929.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1902.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1896 MAX 1889 for now.
IF 1929.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1937.5 and 1947 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1947 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1947 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are in a range trade mode til August 7...
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1845 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1902 and 1923
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 5 A New Channel ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Yesterday I wrote: We can expect a dead cat bounce ( as many short term
technical indicators are oversold ) towards 1932 MAX 1939 before resuming
downtrend. The high yesterday was 1937.5...
We may extend for a few sessions that consolidation before resuming
downtrend as the seasonalities favor that move and short term technical
indicators are still into an oversold territory.
We have a new uptrend channel with 1919.5 as support and 1941.5 as resistance.
Also, we have a Major Trendline that started on February 5 2014 at the 1925.5 level. Closing below it today will bring us another bearish impulse to the 1900 level MAX 1889.
We have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode til August 7...
We can expect a grind within our channel today towards 1937.5 MAX 1941.5 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range from 1925 to 1941
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1941.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Financials Oversold Short Term: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Oversold Zone ?
3) Market is Still Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 25 ).
We are into a new uptrend Channel since August 1 with 1919.5 support and 1941.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1941.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1941.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1919.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1900 MAX 1899 for now.
IF 1941.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1947 and 1962 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1947 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1947 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are in a range trade mode til August 7...
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1844 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1925 and 1941
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 4 Dead Cat Bounce ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
A Lot have changed for me since July 31.
We did broke the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) on July 29 and the
50 DMA at 1943.5 level for now without any serious dead cat bounce.
We are testing a Major Trendline that started on February 5 2014
at the 1923.5 level. Closing below it today will bring us another bearish
impulse to the 1900 level MAX 1889.
We have to take into account that seasonals are in a bearish trend til August 19..
We can expect a dead cat bounce ( as many short term technical indicators are oversold ) towards 1932 MAX 1939 before resuming downtrend.
Then today I expect a range to 1918 to 1939
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1946 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Blue Chip Oversold Short Term: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Oversold ?
3) Financials Technicals are Weak: SP500 Financials: Major Support Trendline Broken ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 25 ).
We are not anymore into a new downtrend Channel since July 24 with 1952.5 support and 1973.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1946 for that scenario to unfold. That 1946 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1923.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1900 MAX 1899 for now.
IF 1946 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1952.5 and 1964 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1946 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1946 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are in a bear trend til August 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1918 and 1939
Expect volatility to be above average.
August 1 Testing Major Trendline ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Having a strong Non-Farm Payroll today ( over 300k ) can bring more
pressure to the market as the FED will be perceived behind the curve...
A Lot have changed for me since yesterday.
We did broke the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) on July 29 and the
50 DMA at 1943.5 level for now without any serious dead cat bounce.
We are testing a Major Trendline that started on February 5 2014
at the 1922 level. Closing below it today will bring us another bearish impulse to the 1900 level MAX 1889.
From July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
1945 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the new tiny correction phase.
That level comes from a trendline that started on May 21 2014.
Then today I expect a range to 1913 to 1934
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1945 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) PVT Broke the Range Call: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Behavior Broken ?
3) Blue Chip Oversold Short Term: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Oversold ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction trade mode ( since July 25 ).
We are not anymore into a new downtrend Channel since July 24 with 1952.5 support and 1973.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1945 for that scenario to unfold. That 1945 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1922 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1900 MAX 1899 for now.
IF 1945 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1952.5 and 1967 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1945 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade below the 1945 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities from July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1913 and 1934
Expect volatility to be above average.
July 31 Correction in Progress ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Not much have changed for me since yesterday.
We broke the 1976.5 level on July 25; so from the grinding mode phase, we
are now into a tiny correction mode. We did broke the 20 DMA (Day Moving
Average) on July 29. I still expect the 20 DMA when broken, to target the
50 DMA at 1943.5 level for now. Expect some reaction at that level.
From July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals
are in a range trade mode.
1961 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the new tiny correction phase.
That level comes from a trendline that started on May 21 2014.
Then today I expect a range to 1944 to 1965
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1961 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Industrials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Macro Signal Still Bearish: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bearish ?
3) Market not Yet Risk Averse: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Still Risk On ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction trade mode ( since July 25 ).
We are not anymore into a new downtrend Channel since July 24 with 1954.5 support and 1975.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1961 for that scenario to unfold. That 1961 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1943.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1931 MAX 1917.5 for now.
IF 1961 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1969 and 1975.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1943.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1943.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities from July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1944 and 1965
Expect volatility to be above average.
July 30
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
08.49 My web site is just back on - sorry for that - Charts not updated
Not much have changed for me since yesterday.
We broke the 1976.5 level last Friday; so from the grinding mode phase, we
are now into a tiny correction mode. We did test the 20 DMA (Day Moving
Average) yesterday but closed above. I still expect the test of the 20 DMA
now at 1969 and when broken, the 1946.5 level for now.
From July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals
are in a range trade mode.
1977.5 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the new tiny correction phase.
Then today I expect a range to 1962 to 1976
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1977.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Industrials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Weak Russell: Russell 2000 and SP500 Ratio: Resuming Downtrend ?
3) Very Weak Industrials : The Industrial Sector : My Broken DMAs ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction trade mode ( since July 25 ).
We are still into a new downtrend Channel since July 24 with 1956.5 support and 1977.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1977.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1977.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1940 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1931 MAX 1917.5 for now.
IF 1977.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1992 and 1996 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1942 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1942 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities from July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1962 and 1976
Expect volatility to be average.
July 29 The Battle of the 20 DMA ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Not much have changed for me since yesterday.
We broke the 1976.5 level last Friday; so from the grinding mode phase, we
are now into a tiny correction mode. We did test the 20 DMA (Day Moving
Average) yesterday but closed above. I still expect the test of the 20 DMA
now at 1968.4 and when broken, the 1946.5 level for now.
From July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals
are in a range trade mode.
1983.5 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the new tiny correction phase.
Then today I expect a range to 1962 to 1976
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1983.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Industrials.
Take note of two weak signs for the stock market: Russell 2000 that keep weakening and the Industrial Sector also very weak ( see below ).
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Weak Russell: Russell 2000 and SP500 Ratio: Resuming Downtrend ?
3) Very Weak Industrials : The Industrial Sector : My Broken DMAs ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction trade mode ( since July 25 ).
We are still into an uptrend Channel since July 16 with 1946.5 support and 1983.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1983.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1983.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1940 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1931 MAX 1917.5 for now.
IF 1983.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1992 and 1996 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1940 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1940 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities from July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1962 and 1976
Expect volatility to be average.
July 28 Tiny Correction ?
Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
back on August 25.
Data feed problems this morning - charts are not updated.
We broke the 1976.5 level last Friday; so from the grinding mode phase, we
are now into a tiny correction mode. I expect the test of the 20 DMA (Day
Moving Average) now at 1968.2 and when broken, the 1946.5 level for now.
From July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals
are in a range trade mode.
1983 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the new tiny correction phase.
Then today I expect a range to 1962 to 1976
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1983 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the SKEW/VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) ETFs participation weakening: ETF s Volume Indicator : Weaker ?
3) Volume Picking Up on the Correction Phase: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Finally Volume Picking Up ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction trade mode ( since July 25 ).
We are still into an uptrend Channel since July 16 with 1946.5 support and 1983 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1983 for that scenario to unfold. That 1983 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the tiny correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1940 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1931 MAX 1917.5 for now.
IF 1983 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1992 and 1996 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1940 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1940 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities from July 28 til August 3rd, we have to take into account that seasonals are in a range trade mode.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1962 and 1976
Expect volatility to be average.
July 25 My Long-Legged Doji ?
Same kind of strategy here but two new factors since yesterday:
1) We are not anymore into the very steep uptrend channel
2) We had yesterday a Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern at the top:
What it means : This doji reflects a great amount of indecision about the
future direction of the market.
From July 23rd, not that I am turning bearish at all, but we have to take into
account that seasonals are reversing to a slightly bearish trend til July 28.
1976.5 is still the level not to break on a daily basis to stay into the
grinding mode. Today could be the day of a turnaround. The Financials to
VIX ratio is giving us a warning here ( see below ).
Then today I expect a range to 1972 to 1984
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1976.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the correction phase.
Seasonalities are turning bearish after July 23 on a long and small decline til July 28.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the SKEW/VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) PVT Still Call for a Range Trade, not a Break Out: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade ?
3) Market Very Complacent: SP500 Financials and VIX: A Warning Sign ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a grinding trade mode ( since July 18 ).
We are not anymore into a new very steep uptrend Channel since July 18 with 1986 support and 2017 as resistance. Also, an old uptrend channel that started on July 16 with 1946 support and 1982.5 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1976.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1976.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1976.5 break down on a daily close, then a correction begin; then 1966 MAX 1946 for now.
IF 1986 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1992 and 1996 as targets.
The 1976.5 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1936 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1936 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a slow bleed pattern after July 23.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1972 and 1984
Expect volatility to be average.
July 24 My Steep Channel ?
The market continue to surprise me in terms of the power to grind without
a real correction in price. We have been exceeding lately the technical
levels, probably because of a summer lack of liquidity.
From July 23rd, not that I am turning bearish at all, but we have to take into
account that seasonals are reversing to a slightly bearish trend til July 28.
We are evovling into a brand new and quite steep uptrend channel with
1976.5 as support and 2008.5 as resistance.
Then today I expect a range to 1976.5 to 1986.5.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1976.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the correction phase.
Seasonalities are turning bearish after July 23 on a long and small decline til July 28.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the SKEW/VIX
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Retail Still Bullish: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Grinding ?
3) Market Very Complacent: SP500 Financials and VIX : Stronger?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a grinding trade mode ( since July 18 ).
We are into a new very steep uptrend Channel since July 18 with 1976.5 support and 2008.5 as resistance.
Also, an old uptrend channel that started on July 16 with 1945.5 support and 1982 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1976.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1976.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1976.5 break down on a daily close, then a correction begin; then 1963.5 MAX 1942.5 for now.
IF 1983.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1989 and 1993 as targets.
The 1976.5 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1936 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1976.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1936 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a slow bleed pattern after July 23.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1976.5 and 1986.5.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 23 Range Trade Phase ?
The market continue to surprise me in terms of high/low made each day
but not on the volatility side of it. We have been exceeding lately the
technical levels, probably a summer lack of liquidity.
From July 23rd, not that I am turning bearish at all, but we have to take into
account that seasonals are reversing to a slightly bearish trend til July 28.
Then today I expect a range to 1968.5 to 1981.5.
So for that new range trade scenario to continue, we need today that we
stay above the 1968.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back
to the correction phase.
Seasonalities are turning bearish after July 23 on a long and small decline til July 28.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the SKEW.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Market Back to Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk On Again ?
3) Defensive Sectors Underperforming: The Consumer Staples Sector : Near Breaking the 50 DMA ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a range trade mode ( since July 18 ).
We are into a new uptrend Channel since July 16 with 1944.5 support and 1981.5 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1937 support and 1968.5 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1968.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1968.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1968.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1959 MAX 1942.5 for now.
IF 1981.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1989 and 1995 as targets.
The 1968.5 level will only define if we stay into a range trade mode IF we do close above it today or a correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1932 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1968.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1932 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a slow bleed pattern after July 23.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1968.5 and 1971.5.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 22 Last Grind ?
Yesterday I wrote:
The rebound have been a lot stronger than I thought; getting over the
1960 level and then getting back into the range trade phase.
Then today I expect a tiny pullback to 1961 MAX 1959.5.
We did trade 1959 as the low yesterday and rebounded from that level,
a good technical sign indeed.
So a retest of the 1974 zone today and starting to fade form July 23rd
is what I have in mind right now...
So for that new grind scenario to continue, we need today that we stay
above the 1961.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to
the correction phase.
Seasonalities are turning bearish after July 23 on a long and small decline til beginning of August.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Near Reversal : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Session Left for Uptrend ?
2) PVT Call for a Range Trade: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Range Trade Phase ?
3) SKEW showing signs of nervousness: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Highest Ever ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a range trade mode ( since July 18 ).
We are still evolving into a downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1958.5 support and 1970.5 as resistance. Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1939 support and 1970.5 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1961.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1961.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1961.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1942.5 MAX 1936 for now.
IF 1970.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1978.5 and 1986 as targets.
The 1961.5 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1930 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1961.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1928 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a slow bleed pattern after July 23.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1964 and 1976.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 21 Tiny Pullback ?
Last Friday I wrote:
Now, a dead cat bounce to MAX 1960 as a major daily resistance
(20 Day Moving Average) + resistance trendline from the channel.
The rebound have been a lot stronger than I thought; getting over the
1960 level and then getting back into the range trade phase.
Then today I expect a tiny pullback to 1961 MAX 1959.5.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above
the 1959.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the
correction phase.
Seasonalities are turning bearish on July 22 on a long and small decline til beginning of August.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Near Reversal : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Few Sessions Left for Uptrend ?
2) PVT Call for a Range Trade: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Range Trade Phase ?
3) Macro Signal is Bearish: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Into a Bearish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a range trade mode ( since July 18 ).
We are still evolving into a downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1959.5 support and 1971.5 as resistance. Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1941 support and 1972.5 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1959.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1959.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1959.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1942.5 MAX 1936 for now.
IF 1972.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1978.5 and 1986 as targets.
The 1959.5 level will only define if we stay into a range trade mode IF we do close above it today or a correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1928 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1959.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1928 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a grinding pattern til July 22.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1959 and 1974.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 18 Broken Grind ?
We are not anymore in the grinding pattern kind of market til we broke
yesterday the 1960.5 level: a tiny correction have begun.
But yesterday s shift was very violent following the Malaysian Filght News.
Now, a dead cat bounce to MAX 1960 as a major daily resistance
(20 Day Moving Average) + resistance trendline from the channel, the
market should resume downtrend to test the 1947.5 level first and then
1936 MAX in the next few sessions, level crucial to hold.
So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the
1960 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the grinding phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Grinding Seasonals : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Uptrend ?
2) Market Short Term Oversold: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Still Oversold Zone ?
3) Russell Capitulation: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell = SP500 at 1420 ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 17 ).
We are not evolving anymore into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1960 support and 1972 as resistance. Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1947.5 support and 1972 as reistance.
We need to stay below 1960 for that scenario to unfold. That 1960 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1947.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1960 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1967 and 1972 as targets.
The 1960 level will only define if we stay into a correction mode IF we do close below it today or a grinding mode if we close above it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1926 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1947.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1926 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a grinding pattern til July 22.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1942 and 1960.
Expect volatility to be above average.
July 16 The Grind - Still ?
Yesterday with the Yellen Slippage, it was a good technical test for the
market: it almost tested the 20 DMA and it did tested the 1st support
trendline at 1961.5 and rebounded quickly. That was a very good technical
test for the strenght of the market.
We are still in the grinding pattern kind of market and expect that til July 22.
Unless we broke today the 1961 level, in which case, back to a tiny
correction.
Just to remind you that even if we are in that kind of grinding market,
it is not necessary a gain each day but a market that will having
on average to reach an absolute level til July 22: 1986 to 1991 zone?
Now, 1957.5 as a major daily support (20 Day Moving Average), the market should test the 1974 level first and then 1978.5 in the next few sessions, level crucial to break to reach a new high ever at 1991.
So for that new grinding scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1961 minor support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the correction phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Grinding Seasonals : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Uptrend ?
2) Risk Taking Slowing: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Toppish ?
3) Best Month for VIX: VIX and SP500: No Fear Into That Market ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a grinding mode ( since July 11 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1961 support and 1973 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1949 support and 1973 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1961 for that scenario to unfold. That 1961 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1957.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1973 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1986 and 1991 as targets.
The 1961 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a tiny correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1922 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1957.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1918 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a grinding pattern til July 22.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1966 and 1978.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 15 Still in the Grind ?
We are still in the grinding pattern kind of market til July 22.
Unless we broke today the 1961.5 level, in which case, back to a tiny
correction.
Just to remind you that even if we are in that kind of grinding market,
it is not necessary a gain each day but a market that will having
on average to reach an absolute level til July 22: 1986 to 1991 zone?
Now, 1956 as a major daily support (20 Day Moving Average), the market
should test the 1974 level first and then 1978.5 in the next few sessions,
level crucial to break to reach a new high ever at 1991.
So for that new grinding scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1961.5 minor support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the correction phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Grinding Seasonals : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Up Up in a Way ?
2) PVT is Gaining Ground: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Strenghtening ?
3) Market with no Momentum Create Divergence: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Divergence ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a grinding mode ( since July 11 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1961.5 support and 1974 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1950 support and 1974 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1961.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1961.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1956 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1974 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1986 and 1991 as targets.
The 1961.5 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a tiny correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1920 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1956 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1918 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a grinding pattern til July 22.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1961 and 1975.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 14 The Grind ?
A few things have changed since last week:
1) Geo-political risks seems now embedded into the market.
2) We tested the 20 DMA on July 10 and 11 and rebounded from it
( now at 1953.6 )
3) Seasonals are turning in a grinding pattern til July 22.
4) Some Crucial Technicals Indicators were Oversold on last Friday Close.
So the new game will be a grinding pattern kind of market til July 22.
Now, 1953.5 as a major daily support (20 Day Moving Average), the market
should test the 1970 level first and then 1974.5 in the next few sessions,
level crucial to break to retest the high ever at 1978.25.
So for that new grinding scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1961.5 minor support level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the correction phase.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Grinding Seasonals : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Up Up in a Way ?
2) NYSE AD Oversold: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Oversold Zone ?
3) Skew Spiking: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now.
We are in a grinding mode ( since July 11 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1961.5 support and 1974.5 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1950 support and 1974.5 as reistance.
We need to stay above 1961.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1961.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the grinding mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1953.5 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1974.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1988 and 1994 as targets.
The 1961.5 level will only define if we stay into a grinding mode IF we do close above it today or a tiny correction mode if we close below it.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1918 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1953.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1918 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a grinding pattern til July 22.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1961 and 1975.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 11 Dead Cat Bounce ?
We broke On July 7 the steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We have now a Double Downtrend Channel ( See 1st chart below ).
We did trade below the 20 DMA (20 Day Moving Average) yesterday but
finally close above it ( 1951 ).
We can expect a dead cat bounce to max 1968 before resuming downtrend.
Now, 1968 as daily resistance, the market should retest the 1952 level
(20 Day Moving Average) in the next few sessions, level crucial to hold.
So for that new correction scenario to continue, we need today that we
stay below the 1975 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
The Seasonalities start to be slightly bearish after July 9.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Neutral, Last Day: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Retail Participants Take a Pause: ETF s Volume Indicator : Fading ?
3) Industrial Sector Take a Hit: The Industrial Sector : My Broken 50 DMA ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 7 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1962.5 support and 1975 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1950.5 support and 1975 as reistance.
We need to stay below 1975 for that scenario to unfold. That 1975 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1952 break down on a daily close, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1975 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1988 and 1994 as targets.
The 1962.5 level will only define if we stay into a correction mode or a tiny correction mode IF we do close above it today.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1916 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1951 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1916 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern til July 9.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1952 and 1968.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 10 Still in Correction Mode ?
We broke On July 7 the steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We have now a Double Downtrend Channel ( See 1st chart below ).
I think that yesterday afternoon, we made an excess by trading over
the 1964.5 level.
Now, 1963.5 as daily resistance, the market should retest the 1951
level ( 20 Day Moving Average ), level crucial to hold.
So for that new correction scenario to continue, we need today that we
stay below the 1975.5 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume
back to the bullish phase.
Why 2 levels: because the 1963.5 is between the more severe correction phase from a tiny correction phase and the 1975.5 is to change back to a bullish stance, according to my two double downtrend channel.
The Seasonalities start to be slightly bearish after July 9.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Neutral, Last Day: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Near a Long Term Bear Signal: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Near a Bearish Signal
3) Market Still Complacent: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 7 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1963.5 support and 1975.5 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1951 support and 1975.5 as reistance.
We need to stay below 1975.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1975.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1951 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1975.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1988 and 1994 as targets.
The 1963.5 level will only define if we stay into a correction mode or a tiny correction mode IF we do close above it today.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1911 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1951 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1914 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern til July 9.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1950 and 1968.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 9 My Double Channel ?
I have been saying for awhile that low volume was a concern to me in
term of liquidity for the markets. Yesterday was a nice example that
a low volume/low liquidity market can do...
We broke On July 7 the steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We have now a Double Downtrend Channel ( See 1st chart below ).
What started as a tiny correction turned by a more severe one yesterday
by breaking the 1964.5 level.
Now, 1964 as daily resistance, the market should retest the 1952
to 1949 level ( 20 Day Moving Average ), levels crucial to hold.
So for that new correction scenario to continue, we need today that we stay below the 1976 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
Why 2 levels: because the 1964 is between the more severe correction phase from a tiny correction phase and the 1976 is to change back to a bullish stance, according to my two double downtrend channel.
The Seasonalities are still neutral for today and then start to be slightly bearish thereafter.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Neutral, Last Day: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Neutral ?
2) Risk Taking is Still Quite High: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : New High ?
3) Is the Russell 2000 Giving Us a Warning?: Russell 2000 and SP500 Ratio: Collapsing ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since July 7 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1964.0 support and 1976 as resistance.
Also, we have an overlapp downtrend channel with 1952 support and 1976 as reistance.
We need to stay below 1976 for that scenario to unfold. That 1976 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1952/1949 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1936 MAX 1926 for now.
IF 1976 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1988 and 1994 as targets.
The 1964 level will only define if we stay into a correction mode or a tiny correction mode IF we do close above it today.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1912 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1952 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1912 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern til July 9.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1952 and 1965.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 8 My New Channel ?
We broke yesterday the steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
A tiny correction phase have begun.
Most of the technical indicators are into overbought territory and the
market need a pause / tiny correction...
We are now evolving into a brand new downtrend Channel that started on
July 3rd with 1964.5 support and 1977 as resistance. (See 1st chart below )
So for that new tiny correction scenario to continue, we need today that we
stay below the 1977 resistance level absolutely. Unless we will resume back to the bullish phase.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Neutral: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Neutral ?
2) The Yen back in Play: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
3) Some Tech Indicators in Correction Phase: ETF s Volume Indicator : Reversal ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a tiny correction mode ( since July 7 ).
We are evolving into a new downtrend Channel since July 3rd with 1964.5 support and 1977 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1977 for that scenario to unfold. That 1977 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1964.5 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1950 MAX 1936 for now.
IF 1977 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1988 and 1994 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1912 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1964.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1912 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern til July 9.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1960 and 1975.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 7 Over Extended ?
So last Friday, we had a good NFP ( Nonfarm payroll ) at +288K.
A little on the high side but nothing to change the FED market plan
as long as average hourly earnings and inflation does not pick up.
The market continue to be over extended as bulls are pushing that
market as if there were no limit. Most of the technical indicators
are into overbought territory but the market continue to grind and made a
brand new high on July 3rd at 1978.25.
We are still evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with
1970.5 support and 1989 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1970.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will shift to a correction phase.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Neutral: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Neutral ?
2) Risk Taking is at the Top: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : New High ?
3) Some Tech Indicators Over Extended: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1970.5 support and 1989 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1970.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1970.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
IF 1970.5 break down, then a correction begin; then 1964.5 and 1959.5 as targets, MAX 1947 for now ( the 20 DMA ).
IF 1989 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1994 and 1999 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1908 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1970.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1908 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern til July 9.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1964 and 1982.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 3 Tricky NFP ?
Today is the Tricky NFP ( Nonfarm payroll ). Consensus is +211K.
The best scenario for the market to continue to grind is a number just
slightlty above the consensus. Because if too strong ( over 300k ), market
will have to price a FED that will accelerate its reverse QE. If too weak
( below 150k ), then market may fear a real slowdown after that disatrous
Q1 GDP.
We are still evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965
support and 1983.5 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
Market can be real tricky not only because of the NFP, but because of
illiquidity just before a long week end.
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1965 support level absolutely. Unless it will become the Saloons Door Trap.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Slightly Positive: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Risk Taking is at the Top: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : New High ?
3) Market Full Complacency : SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965 support and 1983.5 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1965 for that scenario to unfold. That 1965 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1965 break down, then a correction begin; then 1953.5 and 1945 as targets.
IF 1972 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1983.5 and 1990 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1905 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1965 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1905 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6 but with a grinding bullish pattern from July 2nd . See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1959 and 1978.
Expect volatility to be above average.
July 2 Broken Range + New Channel ?
Yesterday I wrote:
Now, we still can expect a narrow trading range: 1943 to 1963. I was wrong.
We had yesterday a break out of that range and get into a new uptrend
channel, more steeper than the previous one.
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1959.5
support and 1978 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
What history tells us, is that when we have a corrective June month end
followed by a huge uptick on July 1st, very often we have a corrective
July 2nd. See Seasonals Factor 1. That tells me to be cautious at this point
in time.
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1959.5 support level absolutely. Unless it will become the Saloons Door Trap.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Down Day ?
2) PVT Confimrs Last Uptick : SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Broken Range ?
3) Some Indicators tells us to be cautious : SP500 Index Bull% Index: Near Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1959.5 support and 1978 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1959.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1959.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1959.5 break down, then a correction begin; then 1953.5 and 1942 as targets.
IF 1978 break up on a daily close, then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1985.5 and 1994 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1903 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1959.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1903 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6 but with a huge last down day on July 2 . See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1959 and 1975.
Expect volatility to be average.
July 1 Still Range Trade ?
Not much have changed since yesterday. A tiny month end selling only...
Since we almost tested the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on June 26,
we rebounded slightly on very low volume. That was the tiny correction.
Now, we still can expect a narrow trading range: 1943 to 1963.
We are evolving into a new Channel since June 26 with 1943.5 support
and 1959 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
Financials will be key at this point in time for the market ( in terms of
weighting of the overall market and performance ). Market Sentiment in
Financials are into the overbought territory but need a trigger to change direction...
( See 2nd factors below )
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 6, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Financials will be Key: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Overbought ?
3) Some Indicators got back in the neutral zone: SP600 : Volume A/D: Not Overbought Yet ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a range trade mode ( since June 27 ).
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1943.5 support and 1959 as resistance.
We need to stay into 1943 to 1963 for that scenario to unfold. That 1943.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1943.5 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1932.5 and 1917 as targets.
IF 1963 break up on a daily close, then back to the bullish camp; then 1970 and 1976 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1901 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1943.5 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1901 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1943 and 1959.
Expect volatility to be average.
June 30 Range Trade + Month End ?
Since we almost tested the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on June 26,
we rebounded slightly on very low volume. That was the tiny correction.
Now, we can expect a narrow trading range: 1938 to 1963.
We are evolving into a new Channel since June 26 with 1938 support
and 1956 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
But month end effect can put for today some pressure on equities
especially at the end of the trading session 1943?
SP500 Index Month-to-date is +1.9% and IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasusy Bond Fund) Month-to-date
is -.3%. SP500 Index Quarter-to-date is +4.7% and IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasusy Bond Fund)
Month-to-date is +2.3%.So we should see some stocks selling to buy bonds today.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 6, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) PVT call for a Range Trade Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Range Trade Phase ?
3) Some Indicators into the OB Zone: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a range trade mode ( since June 27 ).
We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1938 support and 1956 as resistance.
We need to stay into 1938 to 1963 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
IF 1938 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1930 and 1917 as targets.
IF 1963 break up on a daily close, then back to the bullish camp; then 1970 and 1976 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1899 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1936 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1899 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1940 and 1956.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 27 Still into the Channel ?
We are still evolving into a Channel since June 24 with 1932.5 support
and 1952.5 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
Expect a tiny correction in a slow bleed pattern but with volatility
getting above average in the next few sessions.
We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a tiny corrective
mode. We need to stay below 1952.5 now for that scenario to continue.
So from now on, 1952.5 becomes resistance and the market will test
1936 MAX 1932.5 at this point in time.
We forgot to follow the trend on the YEN, but was dressing the path for the SP500. Risk taking is still On as Retail participants are getting hotter with Facebook Shares and some IPO. A dangerous game indeed.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 1, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) PVT call for a Range Trade Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Trading Range ?
3) The Yen is Back: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a tiny corrective mode ( since June 24 ).
We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1956.5 support and 1978 as resistance. We are evolving into a Channel since June 24 with 1932.5 support and 1952.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1952.5 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1952.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1936 and 1932.5 MAX for now.
IF 1932.5 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.
IF 1952.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the bullish camp; then 1960 and 1969.5 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1897 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1936 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1897 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 1. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1936 and 1955.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 26 A New Channel ?
We are evolving into a brand new Channel since June 24 with 1934 support
and 1955 as resistance. ( See 1st chart below )
Yesterday strong bounced was a surprise to me but still think of a choppy
slow bleed - almost a range trade in the next few sessions.
We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a tiny corrective
mode. We need to stay below 1955 now for that scenario to continue.
So from now on, 1955 becomes resistance and the market will test
1939 MAX 1934 at this point in time.
Market is still full risk on and high beta stocks are in favor but starting to be quite volatile.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 5, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Bulls are all over that Chart: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
3) Complacency Still: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a tiny corrective mode ( since June 24 ).
We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1956.5 support and 1978 as resistance. We are evolving into a brand new Channel since June 24 with 1934 support and 1955 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1955 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1955 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1939 and 1934 MAX for now.
IF 1934 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.
IF 1955 break up on a daily close, then back to the bullish camp; then 1960 and 1969 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1895 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1934 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1895 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 5. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1939 and 1955.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 25 Tiny Correction Ahead ?
For the past 2 days I have been warning you of a tiny correction ahead.
Yesterday, we had that confirmation by breaking the 1947 level.
What surprised me was that we made a new high near the opening
( gap up violently ) and trade down as quickly thereafter. The kind
of volatility we did not see for a long time.
We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a corrective mode.
We need to stay below 1950.5 for that scenario to continue.
So from now on, 1950.5 becomes resistance and the market will test
1939 MAX 1932 at this point in time.
Interesting to note that already some defensive sectors ( like the Utilities ) were outperforming the SP500:
That was an early signal of the market shifting to a defensive stance.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalitiesare for a bearish trend.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years. IPO at record ever...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Retail Participation Fading: ETF s Volume Indicator : From Overbought Zone ?
3) Market was in Overbought Zone: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: From Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a corrective mode ( since June 24 ).
We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1950.5 support and 1973.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1950.5 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1950.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1939 and 1932 MAX for now.
IF 1932 break down, then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1892 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1932 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1892 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1879 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1932 and 1950.
Expect volatility to be above average and picking up through the week.
June 24 The Fade Have Begun ?
Not much have changed since yesterday in terms of market minding.
Only technical levels. We are quite near of a pause....
I think we will test the 1947 and break it ; 1944 MAX 1934 targeted.
We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
We need to stay above 1947 for that scenario to continue.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
The other aspect is the activity volume so low and the lack of Volatility in
most markets, not only stocks. I expect Volatility to pick Up this week.
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years. IPO at record ever...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Risk Taking Slowly Fading: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Start Fading ?
3) Market Confidence at a 3 Year High: SP500 + Russel Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).
We are still evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1947 support and 1969 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1947 for that scenario to unfold. That 1947 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
Next target for bulls are 1963.5, 1969, 1976 MAX for now.
IF 1947 break down, then a correction begin; then 1944 and 1934 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1889 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1930 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1889 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1875 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1940 and 1957.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 23 Near a Pause ?
Last Friday, I must say that the market impressed me getting near the
upper line of the resistance line of my channel then at 1959.5.
We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
Next target for bulls are 1959.5 ( reached this morning ) and 1963.5.
We need to stay above 1942 for that scenario.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
Now, 1942 becomes support, the market will test the 1963.5 and 1970
level in the next few sessions.
Even if we must stick to the technical levels to change officially our view, I feel that the market need a pause here or a tiny correction ( Testing the 1942 level ? ). I feel already some market fatigue.
The other aspect is the activity volume so low and the lack of Volatility in most markets, not only stocks.
I expect Volatility to pick Up this week.
My Focus will be on the Financials and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Market Short Term Overbought: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Overbought Zone ?
3) Expect Volatility to Pick Up: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).
We are still evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1942 support and 1963.5 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1942 for that scenario to unfold. That 1942 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
Next target for bulls are 1963.5, 1970, 1976 MAX for now.
IF 1942 break down, then a correction begin; then 1934 and 1926 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1887 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1926 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1887 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1875 and 1851.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1942 and 1960.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 20 Any Follow Through on the FED s Rally ?
It will an interesting trading session. A Summer Friday after an earlier
FOMC decision: is there any follow through for that market ?
To really impress me, Bulls need to push today to test the 1959.5 level;
the resistance trendline from the upper channel. Am I convinced yet - NO.
We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
Next target for bulls are 1959.5 and 1966. We need to stay above 1937 for
that scenario.
Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
Now, 1937 becomes support, the market will test the 1959.5 and 1966 level in the next few sessions.
My Focus will be on the Retail Stocks and the VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Risk Taking Very High: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Start Fading ?
3) Bulls takes that for Comfort: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still Into a Bullish Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).
We are evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1937 support and 1959.5 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1937 for that scenario to unfold. That 1937 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
Next target for bulls are 1959.5, 1961, 1966 MAX for now.
IF 1937 break down, then a correction begin; then 1923 and 1885 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1885 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1923 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1885 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1874 and 1851.
So for now, the are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1885. A major support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1923.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1831 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1944 and 1959.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 19 The FED s Rally ?
When Chair Yellin answered that the stock market was not in a bubble
territory, the market did continue to spike yesterday after the FOMC release.
We did broke the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode. Next target
for bulls are 1959 and 1964. We need to stay above 1936 for that scenario
to unfold. Many technical indicators do not confirm that new high like the
PVT - some caution is advised.
Volume is still a big concern to me. That market can move up or down
without warning ; liquidity is already drying...
The other quite interesting fact is that SKEW is spiking : that tells me that the participants starting to hedge do not feel comfortable with the SP500 at that level.
Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.
Now, 1936 becomes support, the market will test the 1959 and 1964 level in the next few sessions.
My Focus will be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Divergence : SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence ?
3) Hedging a New High on SP500: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).
We are evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1932 support and 1955 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1936 for that scenario to unfold. That 1936 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.
Next target for bulls are 1955, 1959, 1964 MAX for now.
IF 1936 break down, then a correction begin; then 1919 and 1883 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1883 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1919 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1883 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1859 and 1837.
So for now, the are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1883. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1919.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1943 and 1955.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 18 Challenging the Channel ?
We are still evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9 but very near
testing the resistance trendline at 1934.5. We need a daily close below
1934.5 to stay into a corrective phase, unless, back to bullish mode.
I still think we will stay into that channel; the problem is that with a so
low activity level, the market is very easy to move and we may have a
false signal...
We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.
Volume level are a big concern - E-Mini SP500 Futures lower by 48.7%.
Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and then
on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.
Now, 1934.5 becomes resistance, the market will test the 1915 level in the next few sessions.
My Focus will be on the Internet Stocks and Financials
Four factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Market is still on Full Risk Mode: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : A new High ?
3) Retail Participation is Fading: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ?
4) Volume is extremely low: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ) but challenging seriously the resistance trendline.
We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1910 support and 1934.5 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1934.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1934.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1926, 1915 MAX for now.
IF 1915 break down, then the severe correction begin; then 1900 and 1880 as targets.
IF 1934 break up, then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1880 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1915 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1880 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1859 and 1837.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1880. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1915.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1926 and 1938.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 17 Testing the Channel
Take note that the levels are now on the September Contract U4.
We are still evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9 but near
testing the resistance trendline at 1936. We need a daily close below 1936
to stay into a corrective phase, unless, back to bullish mode.
Breaking the 1912 level will make bulls capitulate.
That market is quite resilient; with oil prices at that level, US consumers
will feel the pain on their budget...
We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.
Volume level are a big concern.
Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.
Now, 1936 becomes resistance, the market will test the 1912 level in the next few sessions.
My Focus will be on the Financials and Oil.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Big Capitalization on the Soft Side: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Still Weakening ?
3) Financials Testing a Weekly Level: SP500 Financials Weekly: Testing the Support Trendline ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).
We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1912 support and 1936 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1936 for that scenario to unfold. That 1936 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1917, 1912 MAX for now.
IF 1912 break down, then the severe correction begin; then 1900 and 1877 as targets.
IF 1936 break up, then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1879 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1912 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1879 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1859 and 1837.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1879. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1912.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1919 and 1936.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 16 Follow the Channel ?
We are evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9.
We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.
Volume level are a big concern.
We can have a dead cat bounce to MAX 1931 today before resuming
downtrend. Breaking the 1914 level will make bulls capitulate.
Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and
then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.
Now, 1938 becomes resistance, the market will test and crack the 1914 level in the next few sessions.
My Focus will be on the Financials, Oil and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bear Trend ?
2) Market Still Expensive: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) Market Behavior Does Not Reflect Risks: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).
We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1914 support and 1938 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1938 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and broking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1919, 1914 MAX for now.
IF 1914 break down, then the severe correction begin; then 1909 and 1877 as targets.
IF 1938 break up, then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1877 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1914 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1877 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1859 and 1837.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1877. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1909.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
The market should trade today between 1914 and 1931.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 13 Friday the 13th ?
Now we know that we will have a correction in Price and not in Time
because we did have a daily close below the 1936.5 level yesterday.
We can have a dead cat bounce to MAX 1938 today before resuming
downtrend. Breaking the 1922 level will make bulls capitulate.
Seasonals are near reversal, turning bearish on June 14.
Now, 1938 becomes resistance, the market will test and crack the 1922
level in the next two sessions. Geo-political risks rising fast AND oil
prices will impact the broad economy and the stock market.
My Focus will still be on Oil and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
2) Market Still Expensive: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Overbought Zone ?
3) Market Behavior Still Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Still Rising ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).
We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1922 support and 1947 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1938 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and broking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.
Next target for bears are 1925, 1922 MAX for now.
IF 1922 break down, then the severe correction begin; then 1913 and 1884 as targets.
IF 1938 break up, then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1955 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1884 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1913 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1884 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1866 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1884. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1913.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 14 as history suggest til June 24. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1922 and 1938.
Expect volatility to be above average.
June 12 Still no Fear ?
Now that the market started a tiny correction / pause, the same question
arise again. Will we have a correction in Time vs Price. The answer will be
IF we have a daily close below 1936.5 today.
Interestingly, SKEW Index is rising with the peak in price for the SP500.
Seems some are not totally in their comfort zone at those levels.
Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til June 14. Also, my target
of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now
( my profit stop is still at 1943 today - daily close but already starting to
trade below will mean to me technical weakness ). Not that I turn bearish,
but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical
indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1943, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold on a daily close.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Big Stocks Technicals: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Weakening ?
2) Players buying Protection: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Rising ?
3) Financials are Short Term Overbought: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1936.5 support and 1949.5 as resistance. That new channel support level at 1936.5 will give us the answer of the correction in Time vs Price IF broken or not.
We need to stay above 1910 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1943 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1943 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.
IF 1943 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1910 and 1883 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1883 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1910 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1883 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1866 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1883. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1910.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1935 and 1951.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 11
Still Market Fatigue ?
Yesterday I wrote: I think that at this point in time with so many indicators
into the overbought territory, market feel some fatigue and may pause or
correct a little. But we have seen correction in Time vs Price in the past.
Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this year and the
market is pricing zero risk. Last time the VIX was that low was in March
2013 : We must expect more volatility to come...
Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til June 14. Also, my target
of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now
( my profit stop is at 1943 today - daily close but already starting to trade
below will mean to me technical weakness ). Not that I turn bearish, but
complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators
tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1943, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The YEN Strikes Back: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) Financials are Short Term Overbought: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Overbought Level ?
3) Retail Players Feel Tired: ETF s Volume Indicator : Fading ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1843 support and 1970 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1908 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1943 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1943 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.
IF 1943 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1908 and 1881 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1881 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1908 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1881 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1866 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1881. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1908.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1935 and 1952.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 10 Market Fatigue ?
I think that at this point in time with so many indicators into the overbought
territory, market feel some fatigue and may pause or correct a little.
But we have seen correction in Time vs Price in the past.
We are stillevolving in an uptrend channel that will tell us if the wind
change.I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop now at 1938.
Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this year and the
market is pricing zero risk. Last time the VIX was that low was in March
2013 : We must expect more volatility to come...
Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til June 14. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( my profit stop is at 1938 today - daily close ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1938, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) PVT Showing Sign of Fatigue: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Starting to Weaken ?
2) Market Remains Short Term Overbought: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) Total Complacenecy into the Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Into That Market ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1838 support and 1964 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1905 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1938 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.
IF 1938 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1905 and 1879 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1879 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1905 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1879 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1866 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1879. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1905.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1938 and 1955.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 9 Runaway Train ?
Market is like a runaway train since since we broke the 1882 level on
May 21, when we shifted to the break out mode from a range trade pattern,
many technical indicators changed to near term overbought condition
( since May 28 ).
We are evolving in an uptrend channel that will tell us if the wind change.
I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop now at 1932.
Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this year and the
market is pricing zero risk. We must expect more volatility to come...
Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til June 14. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( my profit stop is at 1932 today - daily close ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1932, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Internet Stocks and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Expect More Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Dow Jones Transport Gives All the Ammunition to the Bulls:
DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New Weekly High ?
3) Market Remains Short Term Overbought: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1832 support and 1958 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1901 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1932 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1932 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1958, 1963 MAX for now.
IF 1932 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1901 and 1877 as targets.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1877 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1901 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1877 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1866 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1877. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1901.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1932 and 1955.
Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
June 6 Tricky NFP ?
So no pullback, no cut in term of risk pre-NFP, no retest of the 1916 level
and break out to new highs. That s indeed a resilient market.
I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop now at 1929.
Today s NFP consensus at 213k but I will put more emphasis on
Average Hourly Earnings ( expected at 0.1% ) and Average Workweek
( expected at 34.5hrs ).
Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this year and the
market is pricing zero risk.
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til June 14. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( my profit stop is at 1929 today - daily close ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1929, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bullish Trend ?
2) Break Out Finally on PVT: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Finally A PVT Break Out ?
3) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials HVol: HVol at Historic Low ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1897 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1929 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1929 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1948, 1955 MAX for now.
IF 1929 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1897 and 1875 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1876 support and 1918 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1875 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1897 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1875 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1858 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1875. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1897.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1929 and 1945.
Expect volatility to be average.
June 5 The NFP Test ?
What will be interesting today is to see if some market participants will
cut some market risks before the Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow ( NFP ).
We bounced back twice from the 1916 level, a good technical behavior
but the third times for a retest of a level is always critical. Unless, very little
have changed for me since May 30, a slow grinding market with low volume.
Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this year and the
market is pricing zero risk.
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( my profit stop is still at 1916 today - daily close ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1916, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Market Still Betting on Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Still Building Up ?
3) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1894 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1916 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1916 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1932, 1937 MAX for now.
IF 1916 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1894 and 1875 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1875 support and 1916 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1873 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1894 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1872 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1858 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1873. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1894.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1910 and 1927.
Expect volatility to be average.
June 4 Complacency Still ?
Very little have changed for me since month end. Complacency is at the
highest level I can remember this year and the market is pricing zero risk.
Market start to be unable to make new highs, market fatigue I say...
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til
June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it
defensively from now ( my profit stop is at 1916 today - daily close ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1916, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) PVT Divergence: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : No Break Out Yet ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1891 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1916 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1916 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.
IF 1916 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1891 and 1874 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1874 support and 1916 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1872 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1891 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1872 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1858 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1872. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1891.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1910 and 1924.
Expect volatility to be average.
June 3 Complacency You Said ?
Very little have changed for me since yesterday. The only thing worth
mentioning is that we did tested the crucial 1914 level and rebounded on it.
Part 2 is today. Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this
year and the market is pricing zero risk.
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( my profit stop still at 1914 today ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1914, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials and VIX : Still at Nirvana Level ?
3) The Yen Could be Back at Play Again: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1889 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1914 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1914 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.
IF 1914 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1886 and 1872 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1873 support and 1915 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1870 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1889 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1870 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1858 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1870. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1889.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1910 and 1924.
Expect volatility to be average.
June 2 Same Game Plan ?
Very atypical end of the month with no more volatility than usual. On top
of that, volume activities on the E-mini futures continue to get lower
on new highs on the SP500 Index. It will be a concern when the market
start the correction process. Til then, same game plan but with some
adjustments in technical levels, especially my profit trailing stop.
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop to 1914 ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and many technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1914, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Divergence from the NYSE: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Financials Still Strong but Near Overbought: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Stronger Sentiment ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1886 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1914 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1914 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.
IF 1914 break down, then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1886 and 1872 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1872 support and 1914 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1869 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1886 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1869 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1858 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1869. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1886.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1914 and 1926.
Expect volatility to be average.
May 30 Month End + Tricky Friday ?
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, some technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1912. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market
til June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it
defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop to 1904 ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1904, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold. Expect a very tricky Friday and end of the month behavior that should bring volatility... Rarely seen were mid term bond ETF ( IEF ) perform as well as stocks ( SP500 Index ) for the past month is indicative of fewer rebalancing into the asset mix this month, a rare event indeed.
My Focus will still be on the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Market take too much Risks: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Rising ?
3) Technical Indicators Short Term Overbought: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1884 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1904 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1904 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1925, 1930 MAX for now.
IF 1904 break down, then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1884 and 1871 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1871 support and 1912 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1868 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1884 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1868 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1868. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1884.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
The market should trade today between 1904 and 1920.
Expect volatility to be above average for month end.
May 29 From Euphoria to Consolidation Phase ?
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, some technical indicators changed
to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1911. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market
til June 7. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it
defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop to 1901 ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1901, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
Expect a very tricky Friday tomorrow and end of the month behavior that should bring volatility...
My Focus will still be on the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Expect more Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Retail Players Fading: ETF s Volume Indicator : Weakening ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1882 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1901 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1901 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1920, 1924 MAX for now.
IF 1901 break down, then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1882 and 1870 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1870 support and 1911 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1867 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1867 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1867. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1882.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1901 and 1916.
Expect volatility to be average but rising for month end.
May 28 From Euphoria to Consolidation Phase ?
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, not much have changed except tiny
adjustments in some technicals levels.
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
trendline now at 1910. Seasonals are turning less friendly for the market
as of May 28. Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, I will play it
defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop to 1899 ).
Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators tell us to be cautious at these levels.
All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1899, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
Seasonals are turning bearish after May 28...
My Focus will still be on Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bullish Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
2) PVT does not Confirm the last Break Out: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?
3) Financials now Participate into the Rally: SP500 Financials Weekly: My Uptrend Channel ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1880 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1899 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1899 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. Next target for bulls are 1918, 1922 MAX for now.
IF 1899 break down, then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1880 and 1865 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1868 support and 1910 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1865 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1865 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1865. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1880.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1899 and 1918. Expect volatility to be average.
May 27 Euphoria Phase ?
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
mode from a range trade pattern, not much have changed except tiny
adjustments in some technicals levels.
We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500. My target of 1907 almost
reached, I will play it defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop
to 1894 ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high
and the VIX level tell us to be cautious at these levels.
I think we have one more session before starting a tiny correction towards
the resistance trendline now at 1880 that is crucial for bulls to hold.
Seasonals are turning bearish after May 28...
My Focus will still be on Financials and the Internet Stocks.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bullish Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
2) We need Financials to make new highs: SP500 Financials: Back Above the 50 DMA ?
3) Technicals are not that strong for Consumers Stocks: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Bearish ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
We need to stay above 1880 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1894 will be seen as technical weakness.
My ultimate bull target of 1907 is almost reached. Next target for bulls are 1916, 1922 MAX for now.
IF 1894 break down, then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1880 and 1864 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1867 support and 1907 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1864 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1864 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1864. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1878.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1894 and 1907. Expect volatility to be average.
May 23 Tricky Fridays ?
Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, not much have changed except
tiny adjustments in some technicals levels.
But I want to remind you that each time we had that kind of set up, a few
sessions later confirmed a false break out. That s why bulls need to keep
above the 1881 level absolutely.
Seasonals are near a bullish reversal on May 24...
My Focus will still be on Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Dow Theory Confirmed: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New High ?
2) We need Financials to make new highs: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Weakening ?
3) Technicals are not that strong: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode. We need to stay above 1881 for that scenario to unfold.
Next target for bulls are 1894, 1899, 1907 MAX for now.
IF 1881 break down, then false break out and back into the range; then 1876 and 1866 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1866 support and 1907 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1881.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1863 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1881 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1863 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1863. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1876.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1881 and 1894. Expect volatility to be average.
May 22 Broken Range ?
The real question here is; do we have a broken range. The answer is yes
because we had a closing yesterday above 1882.
We need today to stay above 1881 to confirm that break out mode.
Then 1892 and MAX 1899 are near term targets for bulls.
But I want to remind you that each time we had that kind of set up, a few
sessions later confirmed a false break out. That s why bulls need to keep
above the 1881 level absolutely.
Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Last Bearish Seasonalities for May: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Market Still Complacent: VIX and SP500: No Fear Into That Market ?
3) Technicals are not that strong: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Still Bullish ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are are not anymore in range trade mode. We need to stay above 1881 for that scenario to unfold.
Next target for bulls are 1892, 1899, MAX for now.
IF 1881 break down, then false break out and back into the range; then 1875 and 1865 as targets.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1865 support and 1904 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1881.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1881 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1877 and 1890. Expect volatility to be average.
May 21 Back to the 20 DMA ?
Guess What? We are Still in that Range defined by the 50 DMA at 1862
and the resistance trendline that started on April 4 at 1882.
In between, we have the 20 DMA at 1875 that should be tested and broken
today, MAX 1882 on that move...
The more time we are within that range tells me the, when broken, the
next move will be a very violent one...
What is interesting is that resistance trendline and the support trendline
coming from the rising channel that started on April 28 are creating a
big wedge that will trigger the next big move.
Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on the Russell 2000 and Bonds ( TLT ETF ).
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market Stuck in a Range: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?
2) Russell is Sending a Message: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell = SP500 at 1550 ?
3) Technicals Getting Worst: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Weakening ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still in range trade mode as long as 1862 and 1882 on a daily close basis hold. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.
Next target for bulls are 1875, the 20 DMA ( IF 1882 broken on a daily close ) then 1889, MAX 1893 for now.
IF 1862 break down, then 1854 and 1844 as targets.
The 1875 level broken is in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1863 support and 1903 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1812 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1867 and 1882. Expect volatility to be average.
May 20 The Thin Amber Line ?
We are testing the upper side of my range at 1882: a thin amber line as
shown on the first chart below. We re still into that range as long as
we do not have a daily close above the technical level.
The range, still between the 50 DMA at 1862 and the resistance trendline
that started on April 4 at 1882.
So I think today we will see a test of the 20 DMA at 1875 MAX 1872 before
resuming uptrend and challenging again with a close above the 1882, which
we should not have...
What is interesting is that resistance trendline and the support trendline
coming from the rising channel that started on April 28 are creating a big wedge.
Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on the Internet Stocks and the SKEW.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Rising Market Bring Skew in Options: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
2) Retail Players are Back: ETF s Volume Indicator : Strenghtening ?
3) Emerging Financials Bullish: SP500 Emerging Financials: Resistance Trendline Broken ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still in range trade mode as long as 1862 and 1882 on a daily close basis hold. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.
Next target for bulls ( IF 1882 broken on a daily close ) are 1889, MAX 1893 for now.
IF 1862 break down, then 1854 and 1844 as targets.
The 1875 level broken is in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1862 support and 1902 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1812 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1872 and 1886. Expect volatility to be average.
May 19 Call it Still a Range ?
Last Friday I wrote:
1861 will act as major support and can expect 1874 as a dead cat bounce
target but should fade quickly thereafter.
Last Friday, a lot of options play made the market trade at the 1874 level.
Now back to reality... The range, still between the 50 DMA at 1861and the
resistance trendline that started on April 4 at 1882.
Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and VIX.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Downtrend ?
2) Market Stuck in a Range: SP600 : Volume A/D: Range Trade Behavior ?
3) Volatility will Prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still in range trade mode as long as 1861 hold - 1861 to 1882 range expected. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.
IF 1861 break down, then 1854 and 1844 as targets.
The 1874 level IF broken will be in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.
Next target for bulls ( IF 1874 broken ) are 1876, MAX 1882 for now.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1861 support and 1901 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1874.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1859 and 1877. Expect volatility to be above average.
May 16 Tricky Fridays ?
Yesterday I wrote:
For today, we encounter that thin amber line ( see 1st chart below ):
1882 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.
And then 1873 and 1861. Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
Usually, after that kind of move, we should expect a dead cat bounce.
But on a Friday, usually we saw some risk off behavior due to geo-political
uncertainties; that should bring some volatility.
1861 will act as major support and can expect 1874 as a dead cat bounce
target but should fade quickly thereafter.
My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Bonds (TLT ETF).
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Yen Still at Play: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) Market too Complacent: SP500 Financials HVol: Still Rising HVol ?
3) Russell Gave a Warning: Russell 2000, DJ Industrial and SP500: Small Capitalization Still Underperforming ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are back in range trade mode as long as 1861 hold - 1861 to 1882 range expected.
Unless back towards a break down mode with 1854 and 1844 as targets
The 1874 level IF broken will be in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market today.
Next target for bulls ( IF 1874 broken ) are 1876, 1882 and 1893...
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1865 support and 1901 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1874.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1859 and 1876. Expect volatility to be above average.
May 15 My Thin Amber Line?
Yesterday I wrote:
I think that we need to take a pause, a tiny correction before resuming
uptrend. Already breaking 1892 will give us 1886 to 1883 zone.
For today, we encounter that thin amber line ( see 1st chart below ):
1882 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.
And then 1873 and 1861. Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Bonds (TLT ETF).
The bond market is trying to learn us something here...
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Bearish Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Downtrend ?
2) Market too Complacent: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) Volume is Still a Concern: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still in break out mode as long as 1882 hold. Unless back towards a Range Mode; 1861 to 1882.
The 1882 level should hold for bulls to stay in control of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1861, then testing the lower part of the support zone.
Next target for bulls ( IF 1882 hold ) are 1899, 1906 and 1910... A tough call today indeed...
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1864 support and 1900 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1873.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1876 and 1890. Expect volatility to be average.
May 14 Beware of that Candle ?
We had a break out on May 12, a new high made on May 13 but with a
candle pattern that do not make me confident. Neither a shooting start
or an inverted hammer, but that king of candle at a new high ever
just make me nervous.
I think that we need to take a pause, a tiny correction before resuming
uptrend. Already breaking 1892 will give us 1886 to 1883 zone.
1883 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.
Seasonals are bearish til May 24...
My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Bearish Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Divergence in NYSE: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Market too Complacent: VIX and SP500: No Fear Into That Market ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still in break out mode as long as 1883 hold. I think we need a tiny corection before resuming uptrend; 1892 broken should bring 1886 to 1883 zone.
Next target for bulls are 1899, 1906 and 1910...
The 1883 level should hold for bulls to stay in control of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1861, then testing the lower part of the support zone.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1862 support and 1898 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1883.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1883 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1871.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1883 and 1899. Expect volatility to be average.
May 13 Break Out ?
We had a break out yesterday by breaking the 1884 resistance trendline
level. We are not anymore in a range trade pattern. Now, for bulls to stay
in control, they must keep that market above the 1884 level.
Next target for bulls are 1900, 1904 and 1907...
My Focus will still be on the Emerging Financials. IF EMFN ETF is able to
close the week above the 24.95 level, we have a break there too.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market in Break Out mode: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New High ?
2) Emerging Financials testing major level: SP500 Emerging Financials Near Resistance Trendline ?
3) Russell Shows Signs of a Reversal: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell Near Reversal ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We had a break out yesterday by breaking the 1884 resistance trendline level. We are not anymore in a range trade pattern. Now, for bulls to stay in control, they must keep that market above the 1884 level.
Next target for bulls are 1900, 1904 and 1907...
The 1884 level should hold for bulls to stay in contril of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1860, then testing the lower part of the support zone.
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1861 support and 1897 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1860 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1884 level.
Already starting to trade below the 1860 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1860. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1867.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1805 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1886 and 1900. Expect volatility to be average.
May 12 Sectors Rotation ?
Market should have a grinding phase for today max tomorrow before
resuming downtrend. Seasonalities are the main factor for that followed
by the usual Monday morning relief of geo-political risks.
Many signal of deleveraging and sectors repositioning are obvious.
Russell 2000, Technology and Social Media stocks compare to Utilities
and Consumer Staples. Portfolio Managers still want to be involve into the
market but with a lot less risks.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and Technology Stocks.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Seasonals will soon turn Bearish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slippery Trend ?
2) Market Still into a Range: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Trading Range Behavior ?
3) Technology Stocks: SP500 Technology Bull% Index: Still Weakening Sentiment ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still into that range defined by now by 1859 and 1884.
If we break the 1884 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1898 as near term targets.
Already breaking the 1867 level should bring a retest of the 50 DMA at 1859, then testing the lower part of that tiny range...
We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 25 with 1867 support and 1894 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1859 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive. .
Already starting to trade below the 1859 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1846.
IF we break the 1846 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1846 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1859. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1863.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1846 to 1884 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1805 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1867 and 1884. Expect volatility to be average.
May 9 Risk Off Fridays ?
History suggest lately that most of the Fridays have been associted with
bearish stance. Geo-political risks still there and market uncertainties
continue to prevail. Guess what? We are still within a range...
After flirting with the upper side of the range yesterday, we will test the
lower side defined by yesterday s low at 1865 and the 50 DMA at 1858.
My Focus will still be on the Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market have still some downside risks: SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Oversold Territory ?
2) Retail Participants Fading: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ?
3) Financials are Still struggling: SP500 Financials Weekly: My Downtrend Channel ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still into that range defined by now by 1858 and 1884.
Already breaking the 1865 level should bring a retest of the 50 DMA at 1858, then testing the lower part of that tiny range...
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1852 support and 1875 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1858 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive. .
If we break the 1884 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1898 as near term targets.
Already starting to trade below the 1858 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1845.
IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1858. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1860.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning neutral stance for 2 sessions.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1885 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1858 and 1875. Expect volatility to be average.
May 8 Resilient Market?
Market is quite resilient and still subject to geo-political risks and will
continue to play the yo-yo style of behavior and will remain trendless.
But one thing we can conclude easily is: still into that range!
After flirting with the lower side of the range yesterday, we will test the
higher side defined by the resistance trendline now at 1877 and max
the other resistance trendline at 1885 before resuming downtrend.
Financials volatility are showing concerns on the market...
My Focus will still be on the Yen and Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Financials Volatility Shows Market Nervousness: SP500 Financials HVol: Rising HVol ?
2) Risk Takers more Conservative: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk On Behavior Slowly Fading ?
3) Low Volume Bring Illiquidity: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are still into that range defined by now by 1858 and 1885.
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1854 support and 1877 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1885.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1858 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive. .
If we break the 1877 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1885 and 1893 as near term targets.
Already starting to trade below the 1858 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1845.
IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1858. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1860.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning neutral stance for 2 sessions.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1885 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1868 and 1885. Expect volatility to be average.
May 7 My 50 DMA ?
After flirting with the upper side of the range, we will test the lower
side defined by the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1857.
That level is crucial for bulls to hold, unless we will not be anymore
into a consolidation channel and the range trade can be in jeopardy.
The Yen is back in Play....
My Focus will still be on the Yen and Financials.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) The Yen is the Key Driver Short Term: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) But Complacenecy is Back: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) Technicals Weakening: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Already Weakening ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
We are now into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1856 support and 1879 as resistance.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1857 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive. We are still within a range bound market as long as those levels hold.
If we break the 1879 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1885 and 1893 as near term targets.
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1853 and 1845.
IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1857. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1858.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 2 sessions.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1857 and 1872. Expect volatility to be average.
May 6 Still The Range ?
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Long Term Trend Still Bullish: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still into a Bullish Mode ?
2) But Short Term Complacenecy is Back: VIX and SP500: Still at Complacency Level ?
3) Sentiment on Financials Improving: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Bottoming Out ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
Today I expect the flirt with 1885 resistance trendline that started on April 4 ( see chart below - amber line ) before resuming downtrend. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1864 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at 1857 and on the resistance side, that trendline at 1885.
If we break the 1885 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1902 as near term targets.
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1853 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1844 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1857. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 2 sessions.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1844 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1871 and 1886. Expect volatility to be average.
May 5 The Range Bound Market
Seasonalities are now turning bearish for the next 3 days of this week.
Last Friday, we tested the upper side of my range ( which was 1882 to
1888; it did trade 1886 ) before resuming downtrend. Now, it s time
to go testing the 20 and 50 DMA.
I think still that we are within a huge range trade and the market
will trade in a choppy manner, wihout real conviction : on one side, main
support are the 20 DMA at 1857 and on the resistance side, the previous
highs at 1886.
Some Technical Indicators are showing sign of weakness like the Price Volume Trend.
My Focus will still be on the US and Foreign Financials .
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Bearish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) SP500 : Price Volume Trend-No Strenght There: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Still in Consolidation Phase ?
3) Weakening Technicals: The Oil / Gold Ratio and SP500: a Bearish Mix ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
Today I expect the break of the 1866 support and potentially testing the 20 DMA at 1857 in the next few sessions. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1866 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at 1857 and on the resistance side, the previous high at 1886.
To have another bearish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1866 level now.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1857 as target for the next few sessions ...
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1853 and 1844.
IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1844 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1855. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 3 sessions.
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1843 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1796 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1857 and 1877. Expect volatility to be above average.
May 2 Risk Off Friday ?
Seasonalities are turning bullish for the last push for the month of May.
But also lately, Friday have been associated with risk off behavior. On top
of that, we have the Non Farm Payroll Today, a funny Molotov Cocktail.
I think still that we are within a huge range trade and the market
will trade in a choppy manner, wihout real conviction : on one side, main
support are the 20 DMA at 1857 and on the resistance side, the previous
highs at 1882 and 1888.
Some Technical Indicators are showing sign of weakness like the NYSE New Highs / New Lows.
On top of that, Gold and VIX are telling us to expect more volatility ahead.
My Focus will still be on the Financials and Internet Stocks.
Three factors brang my attention:
1) Bullish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Short Term Bullish Impulse ?
2) Expect Volatility to Rise: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Weakening Technicals: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Weakening ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer
Today I expect a kind of hit and run like yesterday. Testing the upper zone 1883 MAX 1888 and fading towards again the Mighty 1871 support level. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1866 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at 1857 and on the resistance side, the previous high at 1882.5, 1887.5 and finally 1892.5.
To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1883 level now.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1893 and max 1898 as targets for the next few sessions ...
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1854 and 1841.
IF we break the 1854 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1812 in the next few sessions.
So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1843 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1853. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.
Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bullish impulse stance til May 3rd
See 5th chart below.
I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1843 to 1888 ) with average volatility for now.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1796 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.
The market should trade today between 1871 and 1888. Expect volatility to be average.
