TRADING APPLE

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APPLE Daily Technicals - Caught Between the DMAs ?   $AAPL ​​​#aapl
September 5 ​( From TradingView  )

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​Apple Shares did try to get over the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) yesterday
( then at $99.13 ) but failed to do so.​ It did also test yesterday ​ in the
​pre-market trading session the 50 DMA ( then at $96.59 ).

I think Apple Shares will be caught between those two DMA s for a few
​sessions​​​ with still a lot of volatility ( 20 DMA at $99.29 - 50 DMA at $96.75 )
for today.​
​​
Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​


We are within a downtrend channel with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.29 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode yesterday as long as $96.75 hold.​


Also, I must say that we are testing the 50 DMA on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE. Especially that the SP500 Futures are now within a tiny correction phase, it will add to the already very volatile Apple Shares...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to near the high ever 2.44 vs 2.80 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from  0.15 to 0.42 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.


​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​

​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.29 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.29 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.45 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.29 but above $96.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.50 - $99.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.79 and $97.45         Resistance :​​ $98.58 and  $99.29


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​​​

​​



RATIO AAPL​ Stock over SPX ( Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )



Sep 5  Caught Between the DMAs ?


​​Apple Shares did try to get over the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) yesterday
( then at $99.13 ) but failed to do so.​ It did also test yesterday ​ in the
​pre-market trading session the 50 DMA ( then at $96.59 ).

I think Apple Shares will be caught between those two DMA s for a few
​sessions​​​ with still a lot of volatility ( 20 DMA at $99.29 - 50 DMA at $96.75 )
for today.​
​​
Breaking one DMA will then trigger the next big price shift and will make all
​the ​difference in the next price scenario.​​

We are within a downtrend channel with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.29 ).
We went from a bearish mode to a consolidation mode yesterday as long as $96.75 hold.​

Also, I must say that we are testing the 50 DMA on a ratio basis compare to the SP500​ ( 3rd chart below - red line - ellipse ). The last time we broke that line was January 2 2014. Apple Shares lost 3.2% in the next 7 trading sessions before resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE. Especially that the SP500 Futures are now within a tiny correction phase, it will add to the already very volatile Apple Shares...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell to near the high ever 2.44 vs 2.80 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.15 to 0.42 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $97.45 as support and ​$102.11 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.29 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.29 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.09 ​​max $100.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.45 to iAm in a Consolidation Mode... Unless back to a bearish stance.

​A daily close below $99.29 but above $96.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 4 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.50 - $99.30 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.79 and $97.45 Resistance :​​ $98.58 and $99.29

​​Sep 4 From Euphoria Phase to a Reality Check ?


​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​The past few sessions have been the ​Apple Fever story
​just before the ​SE ( Special Event ) due September 9. But now, with that run
​up, we are getting near the Euphoria Phase as the daily and weekly channel
​have been broken ( see charts below ).​​​

​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

​​Now that we did have a closing session below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving
​Average ) : Technical Observation of the Day , I do not see why we should
​not test or getting near the 50 DMA now at $96.59 ( including the pre-market
trading session - price at time of writing is $97.10 ).​

Breaking it or not will make all the difference in the next price scenario.​​

We are within a new downtrend channel with $97.98 as support and ​$102.65 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 20 DMA to be back in bullish mode ( $99.13 ).

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose to near the high ever 2.57 vs 2.80 ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.52 to 0.15 ).

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on September 2 with $97.98 as support and ​$102.65 as resistance.

We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.59 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.13 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.98 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.58 ​​max $99.13 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$97.98 to iAm in a Bearish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.98 but above $96.59 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.59 will mean for me ​that we are back into a severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​97 max $94.84.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on September 3 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $98.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.59 Resistance :​​ $97.98 and $98.58

​​​Sep 3  From Apple Fever to Euphoria Phase ?


​​The past few sessions have been the ​Apple Fever story just before the
​SE ( Special Event ) due September 9.

But now, with that run up, we are getting near the Euphoria Phase as the
daily and weekly channel have been broken ( see charts below ).​​​

​​In my special research of the week end on that ( APPLE Volatility Technicals
​- High Expectations Already ? ), I say that this year, the expectations
already priced into the RV ( Realtive Volatility ) is at his highest compare to
​the​ previous three years.

​​​​​​​​​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: SE ​Rumours, ​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks. ​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are within a new uptrend channel ( overlap ) with $103.42 as support and ​$105.26 as resistance.​​
​Also, we have an uptrend channel with $101.65 as support and ​$103.56 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 103.42 level for that Euphoria Phase to continue.
​We need a daily close above the 101.65 level for that Bullish Trend to continue. Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.55 to 0.52 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.65 as support and $103.56 as resistance.

Also, ​​we are within a new uptrend channel ( overlap ) that started on August 27 with $103.42 as support and ​$105.26 as resistance.​​
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $104.10 ​​max $104.51 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.65 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.56 but above $101.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​70 max $99.32.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on September 2 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $103.00 - $104.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $103.42 and $102.72 Resistance :​​ $104.10 and $104.51

​​Sep 2  Apple Fever Before SE ?


Apple Fever is rising just before the SE ( Special Event ) due September 9.

​​In my special research of the week end on that ( APPLE Volatility Technicals
​- High Expectations Already ? ), I say that this year, the expectations
already priced into the RV ( Realtive Volatility ) is at his highest compare to
​the​ previous three years.

​​​​​​​​​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: SE
​Rumours, ​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks.
​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are still within an uptrend channel with $101.42 as support and ​$103.34 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 101.42 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility picking up a lot getting near SE.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.55 to 0.55 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.42 as support and $103.34 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.70 as support and $102.73 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.34 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.34 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.96 ​​max $104.29 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.42 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.34 but above $101.42 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.42 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​70 max $99.32.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 29 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.50 - $103.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $102.50 and $102.17 Resistance :​​ $103.56 and $103.96

​​August 29  Still into That Uptrend Channel ?

​​​Yesterday close above the $102.17 put us back into the bullish camp.
But do not be mislead. Firday, end of the month, outperformance of
Apple Shares over SP500 this month will bring a lot of volatility.
It will be a trader dream kind of market.​​​​

​Now, three main factors are still driving​​​ the price of Apple Shares: Rumours,
​bullish Counter Trend Behavior​ and bearish Correlation Risks.
​That tells me that volatility will increase.​

We are still within an uptrend channel with $101.18 as support and
​$103.12 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close above the 101.18 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a correction mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up a lot getting around Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.65 to 0.55 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $101.18 as support and $103.12 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance ( broken on August 28 ). See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.41 ​​max $103.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.18 to iAm in a Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.12 but above $101.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.32.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 28 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $102.00 - $103.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $102.17 and $101.56 Resistance :​​ $102.78 and $103.12
​​August 28  Puzzled ?


​​Yesterday rumour of the iWatch launch caught the market by surprise,
including me. I am a little puzzled because we did have a close a tiny
higher then my resistance level ( ​​$102.06 vs daily close at $102.13 ).

The fact that the SP500 trigger a correction phase put me in a situation
where we should be cautious. Now, three main factors are driving​​​
the price of Apple Shares: Rumours, bullish Counter Trend Behavior​
and bearish Correlation Risks. That tells me that volatility will increase.​

​​I will stick another day with the tiny correction mode and need a daily close
​below $102.17 for that to unfold for today.

We are within a new uptrend channel with $100.92 as support and $102.90 as resistance.​​

​​We need a daily close below the 102.17 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a bullish mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stroner prices - a good mix​ - see 4rth chart below ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ​( from 0.82 to 0.65 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 19 with $100.92 as support and $102.90 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance. See 2nd chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.92 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.57 ​​max $102.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$102.17 to iAm in a Tiny Correction Mode...

​A daily close below $102.17 but above $100.92 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.92 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.54.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 27 ​​(see 3rd chart chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.90 - $102.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.50 and $101.28 Resistance :​​ $102.17 and $102.57

​​August 27 The Broken Uptrend Channel ?


​Yestreday I wrote: Already the Red Candle at the top yesterday do not look
​good on a daily basis.​​​​​

​​And yesterday, we broke an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 101.45 as support ( Daily close was $100.89 ), triggering the tiny
​correction ​phase towards $99.​95 max $99.32 for now.

We need a daily close below the 102.06 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be back in a bullish mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.96 to 0.82 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $102.06 as ​support and $104.29 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $99.95 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.06 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.06 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $102.66 ​​max $102.96 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$102.06 to iAm in a Tiny Correction Mode...

​A daily close below $102.06 but above $99.95 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $99.95 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$99.​54 max $99.32.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 26 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.60 - $101.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.86 and $100.58 Resistance :​​ $101.50 and $102.17
​​

August 26  The Uptrend Channel in Jeopardy ?


​​We are still evolving within an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 101.45 as support and 103.70 as resistance for today.

That will dictate the price action for Apple Shares.
Already the Red Candle at the top yesterday do not look good on a daily basis.​​​​​

We need a daily close above the 101.45 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be in a corrective mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today but picking up getting near Labor Day.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.96 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $101.45 as ​support and $103.70 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of June 23 with $95.15 as support and $102.17 as resistance.See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $101.45 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $102.96 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $102.96 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.20 ​​max $103.75 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$101.45 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $102.96 but above $101.45 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $101.45 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​58 max $99.54.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $100.60 - $102.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $101.28 and $100.58 Resistance :​​ $102.17 and $102.66

​​August 25 The Uptrend Channel ?


We are still evolving within an uptrend channel that started on August 11
with 100.94 as support and 103.17 as resistance for today.

That will dictate the price action for Apple Shares.​​​​

We need a daily close above the 100.94 level for that trend to continue.
Unless, we will be in a corrective mode IF that level is broken.​​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​bullish mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase
​( from 0.98 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $100.94 as ​support and $103.17 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, a broken uptrend channel that started on the week of July 14 with $93.97 as support and $99.07 as resistance. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $100.94 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $103.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $103.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $103.25 ​​max $103.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$100.94 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $103.17 but above $100.94 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $100.94 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$100.​19 max $99.54.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $101.10 - $102.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $100.94 and $100.19 Resistance :​​ $102.57 and $103.17

​​August 14  Target Almost Reached ?


Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​ This is my last Daily : Back August 25.

Yesterday s technicals were quite strong; we stayed above the 20 DMA
(Day Moving ​Average) and did close above and at the resistance level
of my uptrend channel. I start to be more cautious at those levels.
​​
My target is almost reached as I wrote in the past few days:
I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily ​
​close above the 20 DMA .
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerer prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.78 to 0.87 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 7 with $94.51 as ​support and $97.52 as resistance.

Also, we have an overlap uptrend channel that started on August 11 with $96.64 as ​support and $98.07 as resistance.
​​
We have on a weekly basis, an uptrend channel that started on the week of July 14 with $93.55 as support and $98.60 as resistance. Next weel levels are $93.73 and $98.86 respectively. See 4rth chart below.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.97 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $98.07 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $98.07 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.70 ​​max $99.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.97 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $98.07 but above $95.97 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.97 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​84 max $94.51.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 13 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $97.80 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.58 and $95.97 Resistance :​​ $97.52 and $97.88

​​​August 13  The Battle of the 20 DMA ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Two interesting things from yesterday technical:
1) We did test the 20 DMA​ (Day Moving ​Average) and did close above.
2) We had a long legged Doji:​ The long-legged doji suggests that the forces of
​supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and that a shift in the direction of
​the trend may be coming.

​I still need a close today above that 20 DMA ( now at $95.85 ) , unless it will
​tell me that we are shifting towards weak technicals​

I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily ​close above the 20 DMA .
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.61 to 0.78 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into an uptrend channel that started on August 7 with $94.23 as ​support and $97.22 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $94.13 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.13 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.22 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.22 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.45 ​​max $97.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$94.23 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.22 but above $94.23 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $94.23 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 12 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $96.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.85 and $95.61 Resistance :​​ $96.58 and $96.88


​​August 12 The Broken 20 DMA ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: The tide is turning ​for Apple Shares after being in a
​correction mode since ​July 29.
​​
Almost a textbook technical lesson in the past few sessions from Apple Shares.
​​Last Friday, we tested the 50 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at ​$93.81 and
​was rejected violently. Then yesterday we did finally have a close above the
​20 DMA.​​ ​That was technical ​strenght for me. ​

I still have in mind a retest of the ​​​$97.45 zone again IF we stay on a daily
​close above the 20 DMA now at $95.82.
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.53 to 0.61 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on August 5 with $93.36 as ​support and $94.69 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $94.01 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.01 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.58 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.58 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.89 ​​max $97.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$94.01 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.58 but above $94.01 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $94.01 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $96.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.82 and $95.17 Resistance :​​ $96.58 and $96.89

​​​August 11  The 50 DMA Test ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Last Friday, we tested the 50 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at ​$93.81 and
​was rejected violently. That was technical ​strenght for me. ​The tide is turning
​for Apple Shares after being in a correction mode since ​July 29.

We are near challenging the resistance of the downtrend channel at $94.88
and it will give that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the
​$97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerker prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​dead cat bounce mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase anymore ( from 0.94 to 0.53 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within of a downtrend channel that started on August 5 with $93.56 as ​support and $94.88 as resistance.

Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.89 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.56 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.95 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.56 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $94.88 but above $93.56 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.56 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.70 - $95.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.71 and $94.10 Resistance :​​ $95.17 and $95.84

​​August 8  The 20 DMA Rejection ?


​​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday , we did finally reached the 20 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) ​then at
​$95.89 and was rejected violently. That was technical ​weakness for me.
​The SP500 is in a correction mode and also in a downtrend channel, and
the same​ for Apple Shares; IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.82 ) ,
​then from a ​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are into a new downtrend channel but ONLY a daily close today above
​$95.08 ​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test
​​back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.95 to 0.94 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still taking accont of a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $91.01 as ​support and $93.69 as resistance. Also, we have a brand new downtrend channel with $ $93.72 as support and $95.08 as resistance.​
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.82 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.82 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.08 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.08 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.95 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.08 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.08 but above $93.82 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.82 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 7 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.50 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.72 and $93.02 Resistance :​​ $94.10 and $94.71
​​​
August 7  A New Channel ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

One of my client yesterday asked me ( very good question indeed ) about the
​impact of the ex dividend ​date ( August 7 in our case )​​ on the technicals.
The answer is that this fact is well know and already embedded in the price
action - so no adjustment for me.​​

Yesterday , again, we did not even reached the the 20 DMA (Day Moving
​Average) ​then at $95.89 and faded. That was technical ​weakness for me.
​The SP500 is in a consolidation mode and also in a downtrend channel, and
the same​ for Apple Shares; IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.71 ) , then from a ​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are into a new downtrend channel ( and that change a little my technical levels ) but a daily close today above $95.30 ​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.96 to 0.95 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $91.74 as ​support and $94.45 as resistance.
Also, we have a brand new downtrend channel with $ $93.97 as support and $95.30 as resistance.​
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.71 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.71 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.30 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.91 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.30 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.30 but above $93.71 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.71 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 6 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.00 - $95.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.36 and $93.97 Resistance :​​ $95.30 and $95.89


​​​August 6  The Downtrend Channel ?


​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday we did not even reached the the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​then at $95.92 and tumbled on the Geo-Political headline. That was technical
​weakness for me. And because the SP500 broke a daily support, then
for Apple Shares, I am going to turn back in consolidation mode from a bullish
stance. IF we close below the 50 DMA ( now at $93.60 ) , then from a
​consolidation​​ mode I will switch to a bear stance.

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $95.17
​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​is bearish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correctiom mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.91 to 0.96 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
​​​
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $92.42 as ​support and $95.17 as resistance.
​​
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.60 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.57 MAX $92.00.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.17 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.17 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.91 ​​max $96.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.17 but above $93.60 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidationpattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 5 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.00 - $95.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.36 and $93.60 Resistance :​​ $95.17 and $95.91
​​
August 5 Next Battle: the 20 DMA ?


​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

We are still in a bullish mode as we did close yesterday above my level
of $95.17. Counter Trend trades ( selling Apple Shares and Buying SP500 )
were the main factor of the price action yesterday.​​

The next big battle will be to close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​now at $95.92; then technicals will turn more bullish as momentum players
join the party.​

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $95.73
​will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​consolidation mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.75 to 0.91 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with $93.10 as ​support and $95.73 as resistance.
​​We have also an uptrend channel that started on August 1 with $95.53 as ​support and $97.35 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.45 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $94.81 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.73 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.73 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.62 ​​max $97.35 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $95.72 but above $95.17 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.17 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$93.​45 max $92.00.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on August 4 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.20 - $96.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.17 and $94.81 Resistance :​​ $95.92 and $96.62

August 4 Downtrend Channel in Jeopardy ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Last Friday I wrote: ​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.56 to iAm in
​Bearish Mode...

We did have a close at $96.13, above my level ( then turning bullish ).
Also we did have a close last Friday above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average)
​now at $95.94, another good technical set up.

At this point in time, it is hard to see if it is a dead cat bounce phase as the
SP500 or we resuming uptrend for Apple Shares.​

We are still into a downtrend channel but a daily close today above $96.48 will break it and gives that other bullish impulse that we need to test back the $97.45 zone again.​​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.58 to 0.75 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a downtrend channel with $93.83 as ​support and $96.48 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.27 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.27 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.62 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.48 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.45 ​​max $97.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.48 but above $93.27 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.27 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $89.65.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on August 1 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.90 - $97.00 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.94 and $95.33 Resistance :​​ $96.85 and $97.45
August 1 My New Downtrend Channel ?

​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok;
​breaking it will bring ​​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for
​today is ​​​​​​$97.75.

We did break that level yesterday, then going from a bull mode to a bear mode.​​

A correction phase into the SP500 is adding tremendous pressure to the
already all bullish players for Apple Shares.​
​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.54 to 0.58 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are into a brand new downtrend channel with $94.56 as ​support and $97.23 as resistance.
Also, we have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $93.08 that is crucial to hold, unless another major gap down is expected to $92.00 MAX $89.65.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $93.08 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.84 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.84 ​​max $96.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.56 to iAm in Bearish Mode...

​A daily close below $94.56 but above $93.08 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bearish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.08 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​00 max $89.65.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.10 - $95.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.72 and $93.08 Resistance :​​ $94.56 and $95.17
​​
July 31 Momentum is Lost ?

​​
​​Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Yesterday I wrote: We have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st
​chart below ) now at $98.88. That level will tell us if we keep a strong
​momentum or not IF we stay above it.

So we lost the momentum and today the last day of the month could add
pressure to Apple Shares after a strong monthly outperformance and
a correction phase into the SP500.​​​​
​​​​
As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring
​​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$97.75.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $97.75 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very badmix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and near bear target and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.06 to -0.54 ).

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $97.75 as ​support and $100.97 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $99.58. That level will tell us if we gain back a strong momentum or not IF we are able to get back above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.42 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.44 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.15 ​​max $100.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.75 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.44 but above $97.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$96.​42 max $95.73.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.60 - $97.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.64 and $96.42 Resistance :​​ $97.32 and $97.75
​​
July 30 Still Uptrend ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

08.49 My site is just back on - sorry for that - charts not updated
​​​​

I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$97.25.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $97.25 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.73 to 0.33 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $97.25 as ​support and $100.50 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $98.88. That level will tell us if we keep a strong momentum or not IF we stay above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $97.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $99.44 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.44 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $100.15 ​​max $100.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$97.25 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.44 but above $97.25 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $97.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​91 max $95.17.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.80 - $99.20 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.25 and $97.80 Resistance :​​ $99.20 and $99.44
​​​​​
​​July 29 Can we Keep the Momentum ?


Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

Since July 23rd, we hap a strong upward push in the price of Apple Shares.
What will tell me today that we keep the momentum or loose it is the
$98.16 level ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ).
​​​​
I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$96.72.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $96.72 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.73 to 0.33 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.
​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $96.72 as ​support and $99.97 as resistance.
Also, we have a support trendline​ ( amber trendline - 1st chart below ) now at $98.16. That level will tell us if we keep a strong momentum or not IF we stay above it.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.72 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $99.24 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $99.97 ​​max $100.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$96.72 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $99.24 but above $96.73 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.72 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$95.​91 max $95.17.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 28 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.50 - $99.50 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $98.58 and $98.16 Resistance :​​ $99.24 and $99.97

July 28  Still into the Uptrend Channel ?

Take note that I will take some vacation from August 15 and I will be
​back on August 25.​

​​On the weekly Research, I did explained the two main factors are at play
that will keep volatility high for Apple Shares:
1) Counter Trend is on since July 25
2) Correlation risks are into the danger zone.​​​

I still think that Apple Shares will outperform the SP500 going forward​​:
​We must here mentioned one major market risk for a lot of institutional
​accounts who are under-invested in Apple Shares: and that risk is IF the
​SP500​​ start a correction with Apple Shares continue to grind.
That will be a double blow to those accounts...​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring ​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$96.21.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $96.21 becomes crucial technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.84 to 0.73 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still evolving into an uptrend channel with $96.21 as ​support and $99.45 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $96.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.62 ​​max $99.45 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$96.21 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $96.21 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $96.21 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​88 max $93.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $97.00 - $98.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $97.10 and $96.63 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $98.62

​​​July 25 SP500 and AAPL ?


​​​Now that most of the Retail Participants and Institutionals one had the
opportunity to buy pre and post Earnings, what I fear at this point is a tiny
correction into SP500 futures the will bring some pressure ( 1976.5 broken )
​to Apple Shareseven if I think they will outperform the index. Also, the
​correlation factor add in the next few sessions for a potential correction.​

As long as we stay into the uptrend channel, we are ok; breaking it will bring
​also a correction to Apple Shares. The level to watch for today is ​​​​​​$95.65.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $95.65 becomes crucial
technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.77 to 0.84 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1976.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​


​We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.65 as ​support and $98.93 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.65 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.62 ​​max $99.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.65 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $95.65 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.65 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​54 max $93.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 24 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.40 - $97.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.42 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.32 and $97.88
​​​
July 24 My New Uptrend Channel ?


​​​Yesterday I was really surprise with the kind of price behavior for Apple
Shares. Like if a big fund fear to miss the iPhone 6 ride. It was strong
and agressive kind of price action. My fear of a pullback on the 20 DMA
was wrong.​​​

On the other side, Relative Volatility collapse as expected : a drop of only
17.7% compare to historical data of 27.2%.
​​
We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.17 as
​support and $98.42 as resistance.

Then, the support trendline from the channel now at $95.17 becomes crucial
technically speaking.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.58 to 0.77 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1976.5 level today.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

​We are now evolving into a brand new uptrend channel with $95.17 as ​support and $98.42 as resistance.
​​
​​Starting to trade below $95.17 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.42 ​​max $99.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.17 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.88 but above $95.17 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.17 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​20 max $93.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.00 - $98.40 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.88 and $98.42
​​
July 23 The 20 DMA at Play ?

​Earnings Release on July 22 were ok but did not meet the usual high
expectations from Market Participants.: Apple Reports Third Quarter Results

What I fear today is that many participants ( especially options players )
will decide to get out of Apple Shares on a short term basis.

Then, the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $93.86 becomes crucial
technically speaking. IF we break it, I think we may test the bottom of the
channel now at $91.75 MAX the 50 DMA now at $91.35.
​​ ​​​​
​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.54 to 0.58 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1968.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $91.75 as support and $94.63 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $93.39.

​​Starting to trade below $93.86 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.63 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.64 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $94.64 but above $93.86 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.86 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $91.35.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $95.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.86 and $93.39 Resistance :​​ $94.63 and $94.89
​​​​

​​​
July 22  D-Day for ER ?


​​Earnings Release on July 22 ( D-Day for ER ).

Yesterday I wrote:​
What we learned form the Weekly research ( sent yesterday ) is that the
day prior to ER is the peak in price before ER; so today July 21 IF history
repeat itsel should be the peak price for Apple Shares.​
​​
Again, Market Pre-Opening is already well bid but expected to fade again today.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

One thing to remember: Relative Volatility on options on Apple Shares will
​collapse after the close today​​; trade accordingly.

We should not be too picky on technical levels prior of ER and conclude or read too much about them.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a ​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.53 to 0.54 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $91.95 as support and $94.82 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $94.32.

​​Starting to trade below $93.66 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.82 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$94.82 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $94.82 but above $93.66 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.66 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $91.95.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 21 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $95.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.32 and $93.72 Resistance :​​ $94.82 and $95.65
​​
July 21 ER -1 ?

​Earnings Release on July 22 ( ER -1 and counting ).

What we learned form the Weekly research ( sent yesterday ) is that the
day prior to ER is the peak in price before ER; so today July 21 IF history
repeat itsel should be the peak price for Apple Shares.​
​​
Market Pre-Opening is already above the average gain expected for today.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

We should not be too picky on technical levels prior of ER and conclude or read too much about them.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with strongerer prices - a good mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.53 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1959.5 level today.


​Now back to technicals:​​

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.14 as support and $95.01 as resistance..
​​
We have also a support trendline at $94.32.

​​Starting to trade below $93.51 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.65 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.01 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.01 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.01 but above $93.51 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.51 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​57 max $92.14.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 18 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.30 - $95.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.32 and $93.72 Resistance :​​ $95.01 and $95.65


July 18  Dead Cat Bounce ?


July 17 was the expected turning point for Apple Shares.

​​From July 16 in a total Euphoria phase til yesterday s close was a more
violent move than usual. That was in part from the​ Pre Earnings Release ( ER )
​and the news for the IBM-Apple partnership.
​​
I do expect a dead cat bounce today to $93.52 MAX​ $94.25 before
the expected consolidation - range trade phase til Earnings Release on July 22.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell strongly ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix - and level of RV is still expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​will come back slightly bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​correction mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.16 to 0.66 ).

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1947.5 level today.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​


​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.32 as support and $95.21 as resistance..
​​
We have also a resistance trendline at $94.25.

​​Starting to trade below $92.32 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.21 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.21 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.99 ​​max $97.10 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$95.21 to iAm in Consolidation Mode...

​A daily close below $95.21 but above $92.32 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.32 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​35 max $90.74.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 17 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.50 - $94.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.09 and $92.57 Resistance :​​ $93.52 and $94.25
​​​
July 16 Euphoria Phase ?

​We are getting into the Euphoria Phase for Apple Shares.
Pre Earnings Release ( ER ) and yesterday news was a surprise:
​​Apple and IBM partner to launch 'made-for-business' apps

That should continue for a few more sessions ( July 17 IF history repeat -
​research last Sunday - APPLE Technicals Behavior - A Choppy Road til ER
http://www.financialiceberg.com/abetaaapl.html ) followed by a corrective
​stance til ER.​​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix - but level of RV is
extremely expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are back into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.16 to 0.78 ).

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1964 level today.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new and steep uptrend channel that started on July 10 with ​​$95.70 as support and $98.24 as resistance

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.73 as support and $95.61 as resistance..
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.22 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $95.03 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $97.69 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $97.69 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $98.24 ​​max $98.58 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.70 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $97.69 but above $95.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​22 max $93.09.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 15 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $96.10 - $97.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $96.80 and $96.00 Resistance :​​ $97.69 and $98.24

​​July 15 Full Throttle ?


​​Yesterday, it was full throttle for Apple Shares. All the technicals, seasonality
Correlation and Pre- Earnings Release ( ER ) Fever was in the air.

That should continue for a few more sessions ( July 17 IF history repeat -
​research last Sunday - APPLE Technicals Behavior - A Choppy Road til ER
http://www.financialiceberg.com/abetaaapl.html ) followed by a corrective
​stance til ER.​​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix - but level of RV is
extremely expensive​ ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.38 to -0.16 ).
​​​​Negative Correlation should bring Apple ​Shares in a phase ​​of ​outperforming the SP500 ​as history ​suggest.
Also,​ as we know now, Seasonalities are bullish in an Q3 Earnings Realeases til July 17.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today.
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are within a new and steep uptrend channel that started on July 10 with ​​$95.55 as support and $97.56 as resistance

We are not anymore within a downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $92.93 as support and $95.81 as resistance..

Also, a support trendline is for today at $94.37 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.21 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.89 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.89 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.56 ​​max $98.18 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.55 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.89 but above $95.55 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.55 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​21 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 14 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.80 - $97.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.81 and $95.55 Resistance :​​ $96.89 and $97.56
​​​
July 14 Finally a Bullish Signal ?

​Last Friday I wrote:
We have now a new resistance trendline with $95.15 as the level for today.​
​Also, we are within a new downtrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.15 level will turn me bullish, unless still into consolidation.

We did close above that level ( $95.22 ), then turning bullish.​​

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​bullish​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.31 to -0.38 ).
​​​​Negative Correlation should bring Apple ​Shares in a phase ​​of ​outperforming the SP500 ​as history ​suggest.
Also,​ as we know now, Seasonalities are bullish in an Q3 E arnings Realeases til July 17.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1961.5 level today
​​
Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $93.12 as support and $96.03 as resistance..

Also, a support trendline is for today at $94.76 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.23 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.76 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.03 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.03 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.80 ​​max $97.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.05 to iAm in Bullish Mode...

​A daily close below $96.03 but above $95.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.05 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​23 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.50 - $96.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.55 and $95.05 Resistance :​​ $96.03 and $96.80

​​​July 11 Near a Bullish Signal ?


​​​What have changed since July 7 is that the SP500 index went from a bullish
stance to a correction mode. I think Apple Shares will follow that pattern
but will ouperform the Index.​​

We have now a new resistance trendline with $95.15 as the level for today.​
​Also, we are within a new downtrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.15 level will keep me bullish, unless back into consolidation.

​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with strongerer prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.18 to -0.31 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1952 level today.

​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on July 8 with $93.32 as support and $96.20 as resistance..

Also, a new trendline resistance is for today at $95.15 - see amber line - 1st chart below .
​​
We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.21 in a consolidation pattern.

​​Starting to trade below $94.21 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.20 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $96.80 ​​max $97.60 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to break above on a daily close ​$95.15 to iAm in Bullish Mode from a consolidation phase...

​A daily close below $96.20 but above $95.15 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​21 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 10 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.20 - $96.20 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.76 and $94.21 Resistance :​​ $95.55 and $96.20

​​July 10 Consolidation Phase ?


​​​What have changed since July 7 is that the SP500 index went from a bullish
stance to a correction mode. I think Apple Shares will follow that pattern
but will ouperform the Index.​​

​We are now into an adjusted uptrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.70 level will keep me bullish, unless back into consolidation,
which in fact I think we are already into.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to 0.18 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1951 level today.



​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into an adjusted uptrend channel that started on June 30 with $95.70 as support and $98.00 as resistance..

We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.19.

​​Starting to trade below $94.19 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.43 ​​max $97.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.70 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.80 but above $95.70 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.70 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​19 max $93.09.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.50 - $95.70 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $94.19 and $93.92 Resistance :​​ $95.36 and $95.70


​​​July 9  Still Bullish ?


The surprise yesterday was the break down of the SP500 futures at the
​1964.5 level. With low liquidity, the market had some crazy behavior
like into Apple Shares. It ain t over yet.​

We are now into an adjusted uptrend channel. Only a daily close today
above the $95.00 level will keep me bullish.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a
​corrective​ mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.78 to 0.41 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1952 level today.
​​
​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into an adjusted uptrend channel that started on June 30 with $95.00 as support and $97.43 as resistance..

We broke on July 7 the $94.12 resistance and I wrote earlier: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down. Now it becomes a new support trendline at $94.16.

​​Starting to trade below $95.00 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.80 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.43 ​​max $97.70 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.00 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.80 but above $95.00 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.00 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​16 max $93.09.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $94.70 - $96.10 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.00 and $94.76 Resistance :​​ $95.70 and $95.99

​​​
July 8 Break Out ?


​​I was wrong in my technical set up. We went direct on a break out mode
instead of a pullback to the 20 DMA and rebound from there in which
scenario technicals will be for a longer bullish pattern.​​

Breaking the $94.12 resistance level yesterday exceeded my bullish
impulse level by reaching $95.99.

I did underestimate the Counter Trend strenght at this point in time.​
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a corrective
​mode and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.83 to 0.78 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to give another impulse if SP500 futures break the 1964.5 level today.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We broke yesterday the $94.12 resistance and I wrote yesterday: The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $95.05 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $96.67 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $96.67 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $97.10 ​​max $97.44 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$95.05 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $96.67 but above $95.05 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $95.05 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$94.​76 max $94.10.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 7 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $95.30 - $96.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $95.99 and $95.30 Resistance :​​ $96.67 and $97.10

​​​
July 7  Follow the Range Still ?

​We are still evolving within that consolidation channel $93.18 support
and near challenging the adjusted $94.12 resistance level.​

I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction​ ​in the
​next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.26 and rebounding
from it will be the best technical scenario at this point in time​.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​
​Trend ​​​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break
​out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.85 to 0.83 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of July and September 2013 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1970.5 level.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July​​ 1 with $93.18 support and $94.12 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $92.26 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.12 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.18 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.12 but above $93.18 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.18 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​26 max $91.45.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on July 3 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.20 - $94.60 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.18 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.10 and $94.76

​​July 3 Follow the Range


​​So the ​Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern we had on July 1st was a sign that
​we needed a pause / tiny consolidation before resuming uptrend.

I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction​ ​in the
​next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.18.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​​Trend
​​is ​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break
​out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now back ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.74 to 0.85 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​ See third chart below.

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.

​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.

We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July​​ 1 with $93.07 support and $94.05 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.

​​Starting to trade below $92.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.05 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.07 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.05 but above $93.07 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.07 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$92.​18 max $91.45.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.20 - $94.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.07 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.05 and $94.76

​​July 2 My Long-Legged Doji ?

Yestreday I wrote that we were getting near the end of the Euphoria phase.
We had yesterday a ​Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern: The long-legged doji
​suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and
​that a shift in the direction of the trend may be coming.

The break of the 20 DMA ​​​​bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
​players. Now that we re all aboard the train,​ I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.11.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​came back neutral for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a break out mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.38 to 0.74 ). ​​​

Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...​​

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into a new steep uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $93.70 as support and $95.70 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $92.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.07 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.07 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.11 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.07 but above $92.11 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.11 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​45 max $90.70.

​Apple shares performed as the SP500 on July 1 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.10 - $94.10 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.04 and $92.75 Resistance :​​ $94.07 and $94.76

​​​July 1 Euphoria Phase Near Over ?

We had quite a turnaround since the bottom of $89.65 reached on Juned 25.
​We broke the downtrend channel, came back above the 20 DMA (Day Moving
​Average) on June 27 ( now at $91.99 ) and we came back also on the 20 DMA
on the ratio of Apple Shares vs SP500.​ ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).

We can t ingnore also month end rebalancing and Counter Trend that did help
​Apple Shares indeed.

The break of the 20 DMA ​​​​bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
​players. Now that we re all aboard the train,​ I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA at $91.99.
​​
​​​​​​​I still expect volatility to be above average today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a range trade mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.44 to 0.38 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate IF SP500 futures break the 1943 level and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.


​​​​
​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $92.75 as support and $94.70 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $91.99 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $93.88 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.88 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.76 ​​max $95.05 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$91.99 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $93.88 but above $91.99 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.99 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​45 max $90.70.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.30 - $93.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.75 and $92.30 Resistance :​​ $93.57 and $93.73


​​​June 30  Month End and the 20 DMA ?


​​​Last Friday I wrote:
So I consider having met my bullish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.​​​
We did have a close at $91.98, so above the 20 DMA that should bring
some momentum players.​ A close today above the 20 DMA is a must
to keep those new momentum players into the game.​

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​. ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average today. Momentum players on one side
​and some month end effect ( profit taking ) for some participants should bring
​some volatility at the beginning and near the end of the trading session.​​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a verygood mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is ​bullish for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​is in a range trade mode level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.19 to 0.44 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1938 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.


​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.

Also, we are into an overlap channel that started on June 16 with $91.00 as support and $92.30 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.75 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.75 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.88 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$90.77 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.75 but above $90.77 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.77 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $89.96.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 27 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.30 - $92.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.36 and $90.77 Resistance :​​ $92.30 and $92.75

​​June 27  Next Battle: the 20 DMA


​​Yesterday I wrote:
I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares.​ I need a daily close above
​$90.91 ​to turn bullish, unless still ​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of
​slippage continue.

So I consider having met my bulish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.​​​

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​. ​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from -0.29 to 0.19 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish yesterday.

​I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1936 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $87.85 as support and $91.35 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 25 with $89.96 as support and $91.21 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.96 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.76 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.76 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$89.96 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $91.76 but above $89.96 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.96 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$88.​93 max $87.95.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 26 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.20 - $91.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.37 and $89.96 Resistance :​​ $91.35 and $91.76


​​​June 26 Still into the Channel


We are still evolving within a tiny downtrend channel with $89.28 support
and $90.91 as resistance. I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares.​

​​​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $90.91 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ and near testing the 50 DMA on that ratio - a bad omen indeed.
​( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.43 to -0.29 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.20 as support and $91.50 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.28 as support and $90.91 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.28 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$90.90 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $90.90 but above $89.28 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.28 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$88.​93 max $87.95.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $89.65 - $90.90 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.19 and $89.65 Resistance :​​ $90.90 and $91.30

​​June 25 My 20 DMA Rejected ?

We did again tested yesterday the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at ​$91.69 )
​and it was rejected violently. We did trade as high of $91.74 and fade
​thereafter to close below the 20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed.​​

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $91.70 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke down the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.44 to -0.43 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions
​​
​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.50 as support and $91.80 as resistance.​

Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.70 as support and $91.30 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $89.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $91.70 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.70 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $92.45 ​​max $93.04 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$91.70 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $91.70 but above $89.75 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $89.75 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$89.​41 max $88.93.

​Apple shares performed as the SP500 on June 24 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $89.40 - $90.90 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $89.75 and $89.41 Resistance :​​ $90.87 and $91.30

​​June 24  My 20 DMA ?

Yesterday we had our Dead Cat Bounce. I was targeting towards
the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80.
We did trade as high of $91.62 and fade thereafter to close below the
20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed.​​ ( Now at $91.64 ).

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.10 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode and the risk of slippage continue.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.
​​

​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1947 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to -0.44 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.80 as support and $92.10 as resistance.​

Also, we are not anymore into a consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.16 support and $92.45 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.45 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.45 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.10 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.10 but above $90.36 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.36 will mean for me ​that we are back into a correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$89.​75 max $89.10.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.00 - $91.60 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.36 and $89.75 Resistance :​​ $91.25 and $91.64

​​June 23 Dead Cat Bounce ?

​Last Friday, in the last 10 minutes of the trading session, Apple Shares went
from $91.46 to $90.90 - option related. I expect a dead cat bounce towards
the ​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80 today. A closing
​above the 20 DMA will be more constructive technically speaking but still
​into a consolidation mode.​ Next potential target then, the upper channel at
​$​92.50.

​​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.50 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode.

​We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.

​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be above average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1942 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.01 to -0.41 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.10 as support and $92.45 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.20 support and $92.50 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.50 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.50 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.50 but above $91.20 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.20 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​36 max $89.10.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 20 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance :​​ $91.80 and $92.30

​​June 20 Still into the Consolidation Channel ?

​We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16.​ I need a daily close above $92.56 to turn bullish, unless still
​into ​consolidation ​mode.

​So, IF a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that bullish scenario and we
​will go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$92.75 and $93.50 ​for now.

We broke yesterday the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
​the SP500​​ - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.


​​​​​​​​​I expect volatility to be average.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke up the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​​phase ( from 0.41 to 0.01 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.40 as support and $92.75 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.26 support and $92.56 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $91.26 will mean for me that we are ​​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.26 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​36 max $89.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 19 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.90 - $92.80 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.28 and $90.87 Resistance :​​ $92.07 and $92.30

June 19  Consolidation Channel ?


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.70 as support and $93.00 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June ​16 with $91.30 support and $92.60 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $91.02 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.60 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.50 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.60 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.60 but above $91.02 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.02 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $89.70.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 18 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.80 - $93.00 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04
​​
June 18 Still Resuming Uptrend ?

​Not much have changed since yesterday for me. We did retest the $92.70
​zone and failed but we did not make a new low compare to the previous close.
​A painful grind but still in the good direction and still into the Resuming
​Uptrend Phase.

​So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
​go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$93.30 ​for now.
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.


​​​I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get back to average.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish ​scenario, unless still into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures ​broke the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.78 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $90.00 as support and $93.30 as resistance.​

Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new uptrend channel that started on June ​13 with $92.27 support and $93.85 as resistance.

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish ​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the ​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 17 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.30 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04
​​
June 17 Resuming Uptrend ?

​Yesterday for me was the final test of the Retail Players.
​Tehnically speaking, we did not make a new low ( vs earlier day close ),
we tested ​the $92.75 level and failed but did not pullback tremendously.

So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
​go ​testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
​$93.60 ​for now.
​​
​​At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.

​​​​​I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get back to average.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless still into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1936 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.66 ). ​​​

​​​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are back in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.00 as support and $93.60 as resistance.​

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish
​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the
​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 16 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.50 with average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.375 Resistance :​​ $92.75 and $93.04

​​​
June 16  My Broken Channel ?

Today s is the critical phase for the Retail Players.

The opening price last Monday morning ( June 9 ) was $91.75 and the closing
​price ​last Friday ( June 13 ) was $91.28.​​ That tells me that all the retail
​buying ​is now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the
​saloons door ​experiment.​​
​​
​​We still can see a follow through of that capitulation phase today, because
​the difference between last ​June 9 and now, is that the SP500 is into a
​correction mode...​​ $90.10 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...​

Only a daily close above the $92.56 level will cancel that risk.​​

​​​​​I still expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1929 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.66 to 0.64 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

We are not anymore in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.30 as support and $93.90 as resistance.​

​​Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 ​will give us another ​bullish
​impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.04 ​​max $93.90 for ​​now ​in ​the
​​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are ​​
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​10 max $88.93.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 13 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.40 - $91.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance :​​ $91.75 and $92.56

​​June 13  Saloons Door Experiment?


​​​Yesterday I wrote: I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is
​behind us and that hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their
​holdings.​​​​The past two sessions was a real roller coaster​ and I think it will
​be ​the same today.

So the opening price Monday morning was $91.75 and the closing price
​yesterday was $92.29.​​ That tells me that almost all the retail buying is
now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the saloons
door experiment.​​

We can see a huge capitulation today, because the difference between last
​Monday and now, is that the SP500 is into a correction mode...​​
$89.75 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...​

One fact that still seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - ​​​​see 3rd chart below.

So we broke the $93.15 level, turning into a consolidation, even a potential
​capitulation mode.

​​​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We need a daily close today above $93.04 to be back into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless into consolidation ​mode.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1936.5 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.78 to 0.66 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $91.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $93.04 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.04 ​will give us another ​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $93.90 ​​max $94.30 for ​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$93.04 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...

​A daily close below $93.04 but above $91.25 will mean for me that we are ​​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.25 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​severe correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​69 max $89.74.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 12 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.80 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $91.25 and $90.69 Resistance :​​ $92.02 and $92.77

​​June 12 The ET Experiment - Final Coundown ?
​​
We are going into the Final Countdown of the ET Experiment. ET stand for
​Euphoria ​phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. ​​Yesterday was a real roller
coaster​ and I think it will be the same today.

One fact that seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - ​​​​see 3rd chart below.

I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is behind us and that
hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their holdings.
​​​​
You can tell me that we did close above my critical $93.40 level yesterday
and today will be the same game plan but with a tiny change - my level is
​now $93.15. On the other side​​, the kind of volatility in Apple Shares AND NOT
​in the SP500 makes the battle of retail and institutional a major factor of
​indecision, technically speaking.

Now that most retail players have bought and they are long, today still a
​critical test: Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
​close above $93.15​​ - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.15 level​, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?​

​​​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $93.15 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​​Counter ​​​
​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​​Futures
​broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.84 to 0.78 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $93.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 ​will give us another ​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.40 ​​max $95.80 for ​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$93.15 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $95.05 but above $93.15 will mean for me that we are ​​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $93.15 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $90.87.

​Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.40 and $93.15 Resistance :​​ $94.27 and $95.05
​​
June 11  The ET Experiment - part 2 ?


​​We are going into the part 2 of the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria
​phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. ​​We surely saw a lot of ​retail buying
​​into Apple Shares on June 9 and June 10; so for me the Euphoria Phase is
​over. We are now starting the test of the Timber Phase.​

Now that most have bought and they are long, today start the critical test:
Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
​close above $93.40​​ - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.40 level​, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?​

​​​Then I expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $92.60 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose slightly ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.83 to 0.84 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $92.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $95.40 ​​max $95.80 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $95.05 but above $92.60 will mean for me that we are
​​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a ​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$91.​75 max $90.87.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 10 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.40 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.40 and $93.04 Resistance :​​ $94.27 and $95.05

​​June 10

The ET Experiment ?

​​
​​We are going into the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria phase and
Timber or Tumble thereafter. We surely saw yesterday a lot of retail buying
​into Apple Shares. That may continue 1 MAX 2 sessions into Euphoria phase.
​Then after, only long remains, the risk is to see iCahn or some hedge fund
​dumping their shares.​​​​
​​
​ThenI expect volatility in the ​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $92.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $92.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1927 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.74 to 0.83 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $92.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.69 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.69 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.94 ​​max $95.50 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$92.10 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.69 but above $92.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $92.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​ 87 max $89.75.

​Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $93.88 and $93.04 Resistance :​​ $94.38 and $94.69
​​​​
​​​June 9  The Stock Split ?


With the stock split effective June 9 and retail participants interest plus
​potentially Icahn selling a portion ​of his holding​, I expect volatility in the
​next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

I Expect Retail Players Buying into the next few sessions but the timing of
​Icahn is a lot more tougher to forecast.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $91.60 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.
​​
​​​​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $91.60 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.85 to 0.74 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $91.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $94.12 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.12 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $94.70 ​​max $95.20 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$91.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $94.12 but above $91.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $91.60 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$90.​87 max $89.97.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 6 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $91.60 - $93.54 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $92.07 and $91.60 Resistance :​​ $93.04 and $93.54

​​​June 6  Expect Volatility Ahead ?

​​With the stock split looming ( will start to trade at a new price on June 9 )
and that retail participants interest plus potentially Icahn selling a portion
​of his holding​, I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.​​

​​​​We still need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.80 to 0.85 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $656.00 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $656.00 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $659.50 ​​max $662.60 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $656.00 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$622.​50 max $614.70.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 5 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $636 - $652 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $644.20 and $638.70 Resistance :​​ $652.50 and $656.00
​​​
June 5 D-Day for Apple Shares ?

​​Yesterday, we did closed above my level ( $634.80 level )​ and then changed
​the scenario from consolidation to back to bullish.

​​BUT we need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the ​bullish
​scenario, unless back into consolidation ​mode.

​We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.90 to 0.80 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $653.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $653.60 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $657.10 ​​max $660.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $653.60 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me ​that we are back into a
​​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$628.​20 max $622.50.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 4 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $638 - $650 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $642.20 and $638.70 Resistance :​​ $653.60 and $657.10

​​June 4  D-Day for Apple Shares ?

Well, I was astonished to see the behavior of Apple Shares yesterday. It did
closed above my level ( $634.80 level )​ and then changed the scenario
from consolidation to back to bullish.

​​​BUT we need a daily close today above that level ( $634.80 ) to stay into the
​bullish scenario, unless it will be a false signal and back into consolidation
​mode. Because of that, it s D-Day.​​​

​We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $634.80 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell again ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.98 to 0.90 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $649.00 ​​max $652.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$634.80 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...

​A daily close below $644.20 but above $634.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $634.80 will mean for me ​a risk of a more quicker and
​severe ​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$628.​20 max $622.50.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 3 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $633 - $642 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $634.80 and $631.50 Resistance :​​ $639.40 and $644.20

​​June 3 Officially in Consolidation Mode ?

We broke the $631.60 level on a daily close yesterday. What I was expecting
​since last Friday is officially confirmed. We are into a consolidation phase,
then targeting MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.

​And historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices in the WWDC week.

I am just wondering at this point in time if the consolidation will be deeper
​and more violent than expected before resuming uptrend. ( $609.90??)
​​
We are into a short term consolidation phase, as long as $634.80 hold.​​

​​​​Relative Volatility fell abruptly ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​
​Counter ​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bearish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.99 to 0.98 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $620.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $634.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $634.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $636.70 ​​max $644.20 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$634.80 to iAm in Consolidation ...

​A daily close below $634.80 but above $620.20 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions

​A daily close below $620.20 will mean for me ​a risk of a more quicker and
​severe ​correction phase and ​another gap down ​towards ​$614.​70 max $609.90.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 2 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $620 - $631 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $622.50 and $614.70 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $634.80

​​June 2 The WWDC Week ?

​This is the WWDC week ( Worldwide Developers Conference ) from Apple.
​A lot of ​expectations and rumours about new products annoucement.
But historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices.​​

Last Friday we had that first consolidation warning. I think it will continue
all week long. ​​​​​​The gap up near the stock split and retail ​buying will end badly
​as Icahn will dump part of his holding.

​​​I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $631.60 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.

We are still into a short term bullish trend, as long as $631.60 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.94 to 0.99 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $649.00 ​​max $651.90 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$631.60 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $644.20 but above $631.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $631.60 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$624.​90 max $614.70 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $627 - $640 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $629.80 and $624.90 Resistance :​​ $636.90 and $639.40


​​​May 30  Runaway Train?


​​Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. And this week, it
become a runaway train. That potential scenario explained in my research
last Sunday is the leat interesting. ​​The gap up near the stock split and retail
​buying will end badly as Icahn will dump part of his holding.

But during that period, enjoy the ride...​​
​​​
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $631.90 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.


​​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $631.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1904 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.93 to 0.94 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $631.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $643.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $643.40 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $646.90 ​​max $650.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$631.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $643.40 but above $631.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $631.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$623.​80 max $614.70 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $630 - $643 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $633.80 and $631.90 Resistance :​​ $640.00 and $643.40

​​May 29  Consolidation Phase ?


Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. But indicators are
​pointing to near term overbought conditions. ​My Ultimate monthly target of
​$629.80 was reached on May 28.

And yesterday, we had a nasty candle at the top of the range...
​​​
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $623.40 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold to stay bullish.
​​
​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are now ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase ( from 0.91 to 0.93 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $633.40 ​​max $635.60 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 28 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $618 - $630​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $623.40 and $618.20 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $633.40

​​May 28  Near Euphoria End ?


Apple Shares are on fire. But indicators are pointing to near term overbought
conditions. ​My Ultimate monthly target of $629.80 is almost already reach.
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions​​. $621.30 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold.​

We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not ​​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​​phase( from 0.48 to 0.91 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $631.50 ​​max $635.00 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 27 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $621 - $630​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $621.3​0 and $618.50 Resistance :​​ $629.80 and $631.50


​​​​​​May 27  Last Impulse ?

​Apple Shares are on fire. Most of the bullish factors are at play almost at the
​same time.​Today, ​I think that we will see more Counter Trend trades
​( so sellers of SP500 to buy ​Apple Shares ).

Also, since we broke the relative level on May 16 compare to the SP500,
​Apple Shares technical impulse gained in strenght. That relative performance
​must stay above the amber line level for technical strenght to continue.
​( See 2nd chart below ).​​

We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $608.60 hold.​​

​​Last week, we had a technical bullish impulse. We are getting near a huge
congestion zone​ ( $614 to $621 ) back in 2012 where I think we will
​see a pause / consolidation...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from 0.50 to 0.48 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $606.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $619.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $619.50 ​will give us another
​bullish impulse scenario ​and direct go towards $622.50 ​​max $624.40 for
​​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$608.60 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $619.50 but above $608.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $608.60 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$603.​50 max $596.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $612 - $621​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $614.70 and $609.90 Resistance :​​ $619.50 and $622.50

​​​​​May 23  Counter Trend + Tricky Fridays ?


​​​Two contrarian factors at play.
​Today will be very tricky, like all Fridays: Usually bearish. On the other side,
​I think that we will see Counter Trend trades ( so sellers of SP500 to buy
​Apple Shares ). So a tough call but must follow the technical ​levels.

Yesterday, to have a technical bullish impulse, we needed to close above the
​$610.40 level​. Today, it is $613.60...


​​​We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $597.30 hold.​​

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures ​​stayed broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from 0.04 to 0.50 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $613.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $613.60 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $615.90 ​​max $617.70 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $613.60 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​00 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $603 - $612​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $602.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $609.90 and $613.60


​​​May 22 Consolidation Phase Still ?

Not much have changed for me since yesterday.

​​After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
​that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
​set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. ​We need to
​stay above ​​$597.30 for that scenario...

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​​Futures ​​stayed broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore
​​into ​​​the ​​critical​ ​​​phase( from -0.21 to 0.04 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 21 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $601 - $610​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $607.30 and $610.40

​​​May 21  Consolidation Phase ?


​​​After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
​that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
​set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. ​We need to
​stay above ​​$597.30 for that scenario...

​​​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stable prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​Futures
​​stayed in the range and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​phase( from 0.24 to -0.21 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 20 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $598 - $607​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $600.60 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $607.30 and $610.40

​​​May 20 A Trio of Broken Resistance ?


​​
​A lot of interesting technical factors happened again yesterday.
1) We did close above the resistance of $597.50 for a bullish impulse.
2) We did close above the channel resistance line ( now support at $601.50 -
see first chart below ​).
3) ​On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we broke the
​high resistance level made on December 5 2013.​

​I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
​zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 ​Futures
​​stayed in the range and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are not anymore ​into ​​​the ​​critical​
​​​phase( from 0.46 to 0.24 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $613.90 ​​max $617.30 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$594.​20 max $589.50 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 19 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $601 - $611​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance :​​ $610.40 and $613.90

​​​​​May 19 $597.50 Zone Being Tested?

​​A lot of interesting technical factors happened last Friday.
1) We did test the crutial level of $586.30 and rebounded strongly from there.
2) We did close at the resistance zone of $597.50 - the upper side of my range.
3) ​On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we are
challenging again the high resistance level made on December 5 2013.​

​We need to clear the $597.50 level ( trade above and stay above ) on a daily
​close to finally get out of that ​range and have the next bullish impulse..
​Unless,there still a risk of a retest​ ​of $586.40, level ​crucial to hold to stay
​into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​broke down the 1874 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​phase ( from 0.82 to 0.46 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.50 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.50 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $600.50 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.40 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.40 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.40 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 16 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $592 - $601​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $591.70 and $586.40 Resistance :​​ $597.50 and $600.50


​​​​​May 16  Need to Stay Above $586.30 ?


Same game plan here but risk of a slippage of Apple Shares are climbing.
We tested again yesterday the $597.40 zone and failed to stay above - a weak
technical sign. ​​SP500 futures did not hold the 1882 level, Correlation risks
​are in the danger zone and we are so close of the $586.30 level...​
​​
​We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
​range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a retest​
​of $586.30, level ​crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​broke the 1882 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone ( from 0.63 to 0.82 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last session.

​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 15 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $583​ - $594​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $586.40 and $580.30 Resistance :​​ $594.20 and $597.40

​​​​​May 15 Counter Trend is Back ?

​​I think we start to saw yesterday some Countrend Trend Shifts form SP500
towards Apple Shares. ​That make them more resilient of a correction for now.
That outperformance will continue for a few sessions, even more if SP500
futures break the 1882 level.
​​
​We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
​range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a slippage
​and a retest​ of $586.30, level ​crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​fell from the 1898 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone at all ( from 0.49 to 0.63 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 14 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $587​ - $596​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $590.70 and $587.40 Resistance :​​ $597.40 and $599.40

​​May 14

Same Game Plan Here but I think that today we will go test the $586.30,
level crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...​

Apple Shares will outperform SP500 but with a tiny corretion expected today
for the SP500 should bring the test of $586.30​​​ for Apple Shares.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​closed above the 1883 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone at all ( from 0.41 to 0.49 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 13 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $586​ - $595​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $587.40 and $586.30 Resistance :​​ $594.50 and $597.30

​​​​May 13  A New Trend ?


​​​Yesterday I wrote: Near Resuming Uptrend...
​By having a daily close above the $592.40 level, it then confirm that the
​correction is behind us with $580.33 as low. For that scenario to unfold, we
​should not ​trade below $586.30...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) ​and ​​Counter
​​​Trend ​is turning ​to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500
​Futures ​closed above the 1884 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the
​​critical​ ​​zone at all ( from 0.23 to 0.41 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bulish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $601.00 ​​max $604.40 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$580.​30 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 12 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $586​ - $597​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $587.40 and $586.30 Resistance :​​ $594.20 and $597.30

​​May 12  Near Resuming Uptrend ?


Last Friday I wrote: Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell
​me that the ​consolidation ​will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ) with
​my Ultimate target of $575.14: which will become another buying ​opportunity.

​​For that scenario to unfold, we need a daily ​close below $592.40. If not, it
​means that we already made the lows and ready for the next bull phase.

​​​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter ​​Trend
​is turning ​to a more negative behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 Futures
​closed above the 1868 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​
​zone at all ( from 0.09 to 0.23 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $592.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $592.40 ​will give us another
​bullish scenario ​and direct go towards $597.30 ​​max $601.00 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$592.40 to iAm still in Consolidation ...

​A daily close below $592.40 but above $580.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $580.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$575.​10 max $572.50 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $583​ - $593​ with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $580.30 and $575.10 Resistance :​​ $589.50 and $592.40

​​​​​May 9 Consolidation Still ?


Same Game Plan : Testing the ​$586.36 level and when broken, will confirm
​to me that we will retest the $575.14​ which will become another buying
​opportunity.

Why I say so. Because there is still the possibility of a consolidation in time
​vs price. Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell me that the
​consolidation ​will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ).

​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter ​​Trend
​is turning ​to a more negative behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 Futures
​closed above the 1868 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​
​zone at all ( from 0.04 to 0.09 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $579.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $594.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $594.20 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $597.30 ​​max $601.00 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$594.20 to iAm still in Consolidation ...

​A daily close below $594.20 but above $584.40 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $584.40 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$579.​70 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $580 - $590 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $584.40 and $579.70 Resistance :​​ $589.50 and $594.20


​​​​​​May 8 Consolidation Phase ?

Yesterday I wrote:Today is D-Day for the price action: we must hold $594.20
​on a daily close to stay bullish...​​​ We did not. So we will do so by testing
first the ​$586.36 level and when broken, will confirm to me that we will
retest the $575.14​ which will become another buying opportunity.
​​
Why I say so. Because there is still the possibility of a consolidation in time
​vs price. Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell me that the
​consolidation ​will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ).

​In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 6 and closed
​lower (compare to ​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013
​(see second chart ​below - Amber Line + ellipses).
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter ​​Trend
​is turning ​to a more nehative behavior for Apple Shares ​since SP500 Futures
​closed above the 1868 level and ​finally, Correlation ​​​are ​not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​
​zone at all ( from 0.00 to 0.04 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $604.40 ​​max $607.90 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay below on a daily close ​$597.30 to iAm still in Consolidation ...

​A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$579.​70 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 7 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $585 - $594 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $586.30 and $584.40 Resistance :​​ $594.20 and $597.30

​​​​May 7 Market Turmoil ?


​​​Yesterday was a perfect storm for the Mighty SP500 and bring with that price
​pressure on the broad market some profit taking in Apple Shares as reflected
​by the lower relative ​​Volatility.

Today is D-Day for the price action: we must hold $594.20 on a daily close
to stay bullish...​​​

​In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 6 and closed
​higher (compare to ​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013
​(see second chart ​below - Amber Line + ellipses).
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) ​and ​​Counter ​​Trend
​is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and ​Correlation ​​​are
​not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone at all ( from 0.73 to 0.00 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $589.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $604.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $604.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $607.90 ​​max $611.90 for ​now
​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$594.20 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $604.40 but above $594.20 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $594.20 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$589.​70 max $586.40 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 6 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $590 - $601 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $594.20 and $589.70 Resistance :​​ $597.50 and $601.00

​​May 6  3 for 1 ?

Yesterday was a 3 for 1 technical strenght behavior for Apple Shares.
1) We tested the bottom zone near the $589.50 level and rebounded strongly
2) We closed at a new high and cracked the $600 level
3) We made a new high on the ratio (Apple vs SP500)​​
​​
So the ​​Consolidation period did not last long.

In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 5 and closed
​higher (compare to ​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013
​(see second chart ​below - Amber Line + ellipses) : Interesting...
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility was stable ( with stronger prices ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from 0.40 to 0.73 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $594.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $606.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $606.80 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $609.80
​​max $612.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$594.20 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $606.80 but above $594.20 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $594.20 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$589.​50 max $586.40 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 5 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $596 - $606 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $597.60 and $594.20 Resistance :​​ $603.70 and $606.80


​​​​​May 5 Consolidation Still ?


​We are still into a same pattern of the past three sessions but with tiny
​change on ​technical levels. We need some ​Consolidation.

​​Breaking the $589.50 level on a daily close will tell me ​that ​we will retest
​the $575.10 level before resuming uptrend. The best technical scenario is
a hit of the $575.10 level and ​bounce to retest the $589.50 level...

In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
​below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility was stable ( with weaker prices ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from 0.19 to 0.40 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $603.20
​​max $605.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$582.​50 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 2 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $583 - $593 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $586.40 and $582.50 Resistance :​​ $594.20 and $596.00


​​​​​May 2 Time VS Price?


We are still into a same pattern of the past two sessions but with tiny
​change on ​technical levels. We need some ​Consolidation. The question that
​I am asking myself is: Can we have a consolidation more in time that in
prices to allow technical indicators to go from ovebought condidions ?
​​Breaking the $589.50 level on a daily close will tell me ​that ​we will retest
​the $575.10 level before resuming uptrend.
​​
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
​below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell again ( with weaker prices - a very bad sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from -0.08 to 0.19 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $603.20
​​max $605.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me ​a risk of a consolidation phase
and ​another gap down ​towards ​$582.​50 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 1 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $586 - $596 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $589.50 and $586.40 Resistance :​​ $596.00 and $599.40

​​​​May 1 Counter Trend Behavior ?


We are into a same pattern as I wrote yesterday but with tiny change on
​technical levels. We need some ​Consolidation. Breaking the $589.50 level
​will tell me ​that ​we will retest the $575.10 level.

In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
​below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell again ( with weaker prices - a very bad sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from -0.24 to -0.08 ). ​​​

​Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $603.20
​​max $605.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$582.​50 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 30 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $585 - $596 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $589.50 and $585.70 Resistance :​​ $596.00 and $599.40

​​​​​Apr 30 Reality Check ?

​I think that at this point, the ones who needs to buy Apple Shares already
​did it. We need some ​Consolidation. Breaking the $586.80 level will tell me
​that ​we will retest the $575.10 level.

In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
​​the SP500)​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
​below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
​​
​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from -0.21 to -0.24 ). ​​​


Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $586.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $596.00 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $596.00 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $601.30
​​max $604.70 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$586.80 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $596.00 but above $586.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $586.80 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$581.​20 max $575.10 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 29 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $585 - $596 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $586.80 and $583.90 Resistance :​​ $594.50 and $596.00

​​​​Apr 29 Euphoria Phase ?

​Yesterday I was wrong. I thought that Apple Shares needed one day for
​Consolidation. Instead, we broke violently the $575.10 level and exploded
on the upside.​

We are into an Euphoria Phase​​ and not sure the Volatility will decrease
( from yesterday yes, but not from usual volatility on Apple Shares ).​
We must not forget that at some point, iCahn will have to sell...​

In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares are now challenging ( compare to
​the SP500 )​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 ( see second
chart below - ellipses ).
​​
​​Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...

​​​In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares are now challenging ( compare to
​the SP500 )​, the previous high made on December 5 2013 ( see second
chart below - ellipses ).
​​
​​Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
​​
​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.10 to +0.10 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $583.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $601.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $601.20 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $604.60
​​max $607.30 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$583.80 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $601.20 but above $583.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $583.80 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$577.​50 max $571.90 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 28 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $590 - $601 with above average volatility.

​​​​​​Support : $590.10 and $586.60 Resistance :​​ $601.20 and $604.60

​​Apr 28  All Aboard ?

​​With SP500 more stable this morning and most of the rebalancing and
​Counter Trend Mostly Done on last Friday, I think that it will be a lot more
difficult at this point for Apple Shares to continue to perform like that.​

So the Bulls need absolutely to break AND close above the $575.10 today.
Failing to do so can bring a consolidation phase this week. Already, starting
​to trade below $567.70 will be the first sign of the consolidation phase...


​​​Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
​​
​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are not into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.59 to +0.10 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.


​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $560.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $577.60 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $575.10 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $580.60
​​max $583.20 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$567.70 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $575.10 but above $567.70 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $567.70 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$564.​10 max $560.70 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 25 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $567 - $577 with above average volatility.


​​​​​Support : $567.70 and $564.10 Resistance :​​ $575.10 and $577.60

​​Apr 25 Yesterday I thought that finally with all those good news on Apple, the stock
should at least test the $575.10​ level; it didn t, a huge technical deception...

​​So today I expect a consolidation wave with lower prices​​ - $558.40
​MAX $554.80. Already starting to trade below $560.70 will be the first sign
for that scenario to unfold...​...

Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
​​
​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.70 to +0.59 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.

​​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $554.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $570.00 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $570.00 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $575.10
​​max $582.90 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$560.70 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $570.00 but above $560.70 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $560.70 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$558.​40 max $554.80 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 24 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $558 - $568 with above average volatility.


​​​​​Support : $560.70 and $558.40 Resistance :​​ $567.70 and $570.00

​​Apr 24 Houston, we had a Lift Off ?

We had very good financial results from Apple Yesterday.

Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
​​
​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.72 to +0.70 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.


​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $554.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $575.10 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $575.10 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $582.90
​​max $594.60 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$554.70 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $575.10 but above $554.70 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $554.70 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$549.​00 max $543.50 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 23 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $555 - $575 with above average volatility.


​​​​​Support : $558.30 and $554.70 Resistance :​​ $567.70 and $575.10

​​​​Apr 23 D-Day on ER ?

​​We are now on Day-Day for ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, ​we should have a corrective Wednesday in Price​.
​ See APPLE Technicals Behavior - Counter Trend and ER ?

So according to price history behavior near ER, we saw last Monday as the
​short term top ( $532.14 ) for Apple Shares.
​​

​​​​​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.65 to +0.72 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.

Starting to trade below $526.50 will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $526.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $535.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $535.80 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $540.10
​​max $543.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$526.50 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $535.80 but above $526.50 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $526.50 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$523.​20 max $519.20 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 22 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $525 - $535 with average volatility.
AFTER ER : Expect $493 - $575

​​​​​Support : $526.50 and $523.20 Resistance :​​ $535.80 and $540.10

​AFTER ER:
​​​​​​Support : $517.10 and $511.30 and $ $493.50 Resistance :​​ $549.00 and $560.20 and $575.10

​​Apr 22 ER Behavior ?

​​Yesterday I wrote:
​We are now very close of ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, ​we should have a Bullish​ Monday followed by a corrective Tuesday
and Wednesday. See APPLE Technicals Behavior - Counter Trend and ER ?

So according to price history behavior near ER, we saw yesterday or we will
​see this morning the short term top for Apple Shares.
​​
​​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.55 to +0.65 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.

Starting to trade below $525.80 will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $522.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $535.10 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $535.10 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $538.90
​​max $543.50 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$525.80 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $535.10 but above $525.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $525.80 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$522.​40 max $519.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 21 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $525 - $535 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $525.80 and $522.40 Resistance :​​ $531.30 and $535.10

​​Apr 21  ER Fever ?

​​On April 17 I wrote:
​​We need to break the $520.40 level ​on a short term basis to finally get
out of the mud zone​. A daily close above that level will confirm a new
bull trend.​​​

Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.51 to +0.55 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.

We are now very close of ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, ​we should have a Bullish​ Monday followed by a corrective Tuesday
and Wednesday.
​​
Being able to clear and stay ​above $522.80 will be quite bullish for Apple
​Shares. Starting to trade below will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $519.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $530.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $527.80 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $530.80
​​max $531.30 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to stay above on a daily close ​$522.80 to iAm still Bullish ...

​A daily close below $527.80 but above $522.80 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $522.80 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$519.​90 max $517.10 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 17 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $522 - $531 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $522.80 and $519.90 Resistance :​​ $527.80 and $530.80

​​​​Apr 17  Stuck in the Mud ?


Yesterday we had finally some signs of a counter trend: switching from
​SP500 towards Apple Shares. I think that will continue.
​We need to break the $520.40 level ​on a short term basis to finally get
out of the mud zone​. A daily close above that level will confirm a new
bull trend.​

​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.76 to +0.51 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE REACHED THAT MARK.

Being able to clear and stay ​above $520.40 will be quite bullish for Apple
​Shares. For that scenario to ​unfold, we must not trade below $511.30 anymore...

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $514.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $520.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $520.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $524.80
​​max $526.10 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$520.40 to iTurn Bullish ...

​A daily close below $520.40 but above $514.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $514.10 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$511.​30 max $509.90 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 16 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $511 - $522 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $514.10 and $511.30 Resistance :​​ $520.40 and $521.90

​​​​​Apr 16 Captitulation my Dear?


Yesterday we had finally a strong pattern of capitulation. We did retest
the low of Novembwe 2013 at $512.38 ( it trade $511.33 ) and we rebounded
violently from that level. Then it became a stronger technical pattern.​​​
That I was expecting in the two previous sessions. Now, weak hands are
​cleared​ and Apple Shares can start from a solid footing...

​​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - another capitulation sign ) ​and ​
​Counter ​​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.91 to +0.76 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​ WE ARE NEAR THAT MARK.

Being able to clear and stay ​above $524.30 will be quite bullish for Apple
​Shares. For that scenario to ​unfold, we must not trade below $515.60 anymore...

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $515.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $524.30 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $524.30 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $526.10
​​max $530.30 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$524.30 to iTurn Bullish ...

​A daily close below $524.30 but above $515.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $515.60 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$512.​40 max $511.30 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 15 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $515 - $524 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $517.10 and $515.60 Resistance :​​ $521.90 and $524.30

​​​​​Apr 15 D Day for Apple Shares

Yesterday we had a weak pattern of capitulation. We did retest almost
the low of April 11 at $517.14 ( it trade $517.21 ) and we rebounded
from that level. I had like to see a lower low ( kind of $515.60 ) and
rebound from there. It will be a more stronger technical pattern.​​​

​​​​Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) ​and ​Counter ​
​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares ​and
​Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.94 to +0.91 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are slighlty bullish compare to last week.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​

I think that today is D Day for Apple Shares. Being able to clear and stay
​above $523.80 will be quite bullish for Apple Shares. For that scenario to
​unfold, we must not trade below $517.10 anymore...

​​​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $517.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $523.80 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $523.80 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $526.10
​​max $529.60 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$523.80 to iTurn Bullish ...

​A daily close below $523.80 but above $517.10 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $517.10 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$512.​40 max $510.40 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 14 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $518 - $526 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $517.10 and $515.60 Resistance :​​ $523.80 and $526.10

​​​​Apr 14  Near Turnaround ?

​​

Last Friday I wrote:
​A daily close below $521.90 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$518.​70 max $515.60 for now.

Relative Volatility fell ( with lower prices - a bad sign - Read​ Research )
​and ​Counter ​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares
​and Correlation ​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.94 to +0.94 ). ​​​
( Read​ Correlation Research ).

Those risks factors are slighlty bullish compare to last week.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​

I think we can have today the final wave of capitulation phase of the market
​and/or a daily close above $523.40.
My capitulation level for Apple Shares is $512.38 to $515.60 zone.​​
That should be the turnaround sign for Apple Shares​...
​​
​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $512.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $523.40 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $523.40 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $526.10
​​max $529.60 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$523.40 to iTurn Bullish ...

​A daily close below $523.40 but above $515.60 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $515.60 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$512.​40 max $510.40 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 11 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $513 - $525 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $515.60 and $512.40 Resistance :​​ $523.40 and $526.10

​​​​​Apr 11  Wave 2 ?


​Yesterday I wrote:
Today is a lot more tricky; for me ​, we must stay above the 50 DMA now at
​$528.71 to continue the bullish phase. And we did not...

​​​Relative Volatility fell ( with lower prices - a bad sign ) and ​Counter ​
​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.97 to +0.94 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are slighlty bearish compare to yesterday.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​

I think we can have today the wave 2 of capitulation phase of the market.
My capitulation level for Apple Shares is $515.60 zone.​​
​​
​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $518.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $529.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $529.20 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $533.30
​​max $537.40 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$529.20 to iTurn Bullish ...

​A daily close below $529.20 but above $521.90 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $521.90 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$518.​70 max $515.60 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 10 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $518 - $527 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $518.70 and $515.60 Resistance :​​ $526.10 and $529.20


​​​​​Apr 10  Tricky Follow Through ?


​​​Yesterday we had the expected dead cat bounce towards the 50 DMA then
at $528.24 and we did have a close above, a very good sign indeed.

Today is a lot more tricky; for me ​, we must stay above the 50 DMA now at
​$528.71 to continue the bullish phase. Being able to trade today and break
the 20 DMA ( at $533.67 ) will give another bullish impulse.​

​​​Also, Relative Volatility rose ( with higher prices - a good sig ) and ​Counter ​
​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.97 to +0.97 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are neutral compare to yesterday.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.​

​​
​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $526.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $533.70 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $533.70 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $537.40
​​max $540.00 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$528.70 to iContinue a Bullish Trend...

​A daily close below $533.70 but above $528.70 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $528.70 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$526.​10 max $521.90 for now.

​Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 9 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $526 - $535 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $528.70 and $526.10 Resistance :​​ $533.70 and $537.40

​​Apr 9 Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​
​​Yesterday we saw twoTechnical factors quite interesting: a test of the
​50 DMA on the SP500 and almost a capitulation phase for Apple Shares

​​​Also, Relative Volatility rose ( with lower prices - a bad omen ) and ​Counter ​
​Trend is turning ​to a more ​positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
​​​are now into ​​​the ​critical​ ​zone ( from +0.88 to +0.97 ). ​​​

Those risks factors are slightly less bullish than yesterday.
​Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk.

I think today we will have a dead cat bounce and a test of the 50 DMA
​at $528.24 MAX the 20 DMA at $533.98. A closing above the 50 DMA will
give another impulse in the next few sessions...​
​​
​​Now back to technicals:​​

Starting to trade below $518.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...​​​​​
​​Starting to trade AND stay above $528.20 will mean to me technical strenght...​​​​​

The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.

Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $528.20 ​will give us another
​bullish push scenario ​and direct go towards $534.00
​​max $537.20 for ​now ​in ​the ​next few sessions.

​​Need to have a daily close above ​$528.20 to shift towards a Bull Trend...

​A daily close below $528.20 but above $518.70 will mean for me that we are
​into a ​consolidation mode trade scenario for a few sessions.

​A daily close below $518.70 will mean for me ​a risk of another gap down
​towards ​$515.​60 max $512.00 for now.

​Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 8 ​​(2nd chart below).

​​​Expect a day trading range between $522 - $531 with average volatility.

​​​​​Support : $521.90 and $518.70 Resistance :​​ $528.80 and $530.90

​ AAPL​ Stock Price Daily  ( Daily Candle Chart )

AAPL Relative Volatility ( Candle Chart )
​7 DMA ( Yellow Line )

AAPL​ Stock Price Daily ( Weekly Candle Chart )