FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
SP500 : A Potential Summer Crash Scenario ?
July 31 ​( From Stockchart , Wiki, Barchart )
If you would like to receive our free daily markets updates, please Sign-Up



Commodities (CRB)

​​The CRB Reuters/Jefferies Index is a global commodity index: it comprises 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas and Wheat.

iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund ( EMB )

iShares Emerging Markets Financial Sector ( EMFM )
iShares Wisdom Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund ( CEW )
 MSCI Emerging Markets iShares (EEM)
BRIC Countries : iShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund (BKF)

​​The ETF replicate mostly the performance of the MSCI BRIC Index ( Exposure in Brazilian, Russian, Indian, and Chinese stocks )
European Banks : Euro Stoxx 600 Banks Futures (FAU13)
tatisticCode" src="Scripts/stats-tracking.js">
ASEAN Countries X Japan : Global FTSE ASEA 40 ETF (ASEA)
Latin America : iShares Latin America 40 (ILF)
US Corporate Bond : iShares iBoxx US Corporate Bond Fund (LQD)
US Risk-On ETFs vs Risk-Off ETFs

​​The chart below compares S&P500 with the ratio of UBS E-TRACS Fisher-Gartman Risk-On ETN vs UBS E-TRACS Fisher-Gartman Risk-Off ETN.
Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 even after tons of monetary stimulus is losing steam...
Exports Sensitive Countries : Australia and Canada iShares (EWA+EWC)
Conclusion

​It started like in 1997 in the Asian Crisis but not for the same reasons.  This time, the tapering fear in the US has already began to start a deleveraging of the system  in terms of outflows in Emerging Markets (EM) either in equity or bonds. The cash squeeze in China is adding to an unstable situation and are forcing financial asset liquidation.

All assets have been under pressure since the FED on June 19. When was the last time we saw all asset classes trading down?​​

Political turmoil in Egypt,Turkey and Brazil are also adding to the process...​​

And don t forget, the big difference between now and in 1997​​ is that the level of debt in all sectors (businesses, consumers, governments)
​are a lot higher; so the sensitivity to a rise of real interest rates will be felt with more pronounced. ( See charts below )

So for me, there is a serious possibility of a major correction for the SP500​​; 1450?
The level of Debt

As you may observe in the charts below, ​​i put the scale at 100 on December 1997 on each data to be able to evaluate the change since then.It will be a lot easier to visualize the change and growth of debt because I did compare with the GDP to see the evolution...
US Nonfinancial Corporate business Total Liabilities ( Blue )
US Gross Domestic Product ( Red )
Scale at 100 on December 1997​​
US Federal Debt Total Public Debt ( Blue )
US Gross Domestic Product ( Red )
Scale at 100 on December 1997​​
US Total Consumer Debt Outstanding ( Blue )
US Gross Domestic Product ( Red )
Scale at 100 on December 1997​​
The market stopped in June its very aggressive stance that began in November 2012. ​Just to establish new highs in July...

​​The US equity market has decoupled from the overall risk-on / risk-off completely.

​​A few charts below is worth a look where we will show different markets/ratios compare to the Mighty SP500 ( SPX in the charts below showed in Black Line )...