TRADING APPLE
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APPLE Daily Technicals - Follow the Range ? $AAPL #aapl
July 3 ( From TradingView )
July 3 ( From TradingView )
So the Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern we had on July 1st was a sign that
we needed a pause / tiny consolidation before resuming uptrend.
I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction in the
next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.18.
I still expect volatility to be above average today.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is came back neutral for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a break
out mode level and finally, Correlation are now back into the critical phase ( from 0.74 to 0.85 ).
Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction... See third chart below.
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July 1 with $93.07 support and $94.05 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.
Starting to trade below $92.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.05 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.05 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.76 max $95.05 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $93.07 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.05 but above $93.07 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $93.07 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $92.18 max $91.45.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.20 - $94.10 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.07 and $92.75 Resistance : $94.05 and $94.76
we needed a pause / tiny consolidation before resuming uptrend.
I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction in the
next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.18.
I still expect volatility to be above average today.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is came back neutral for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a break
out mode level and finally, Correlation are now back into the critical phase ( from 0.74 to 0.85 ).
Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction... See third chart below.
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July 1 with $93.07 support and $94.05 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.
Starting to trade below $92.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.05 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.05 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.76 max $95.05 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $93.07 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.05 but above $93.07 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $93.07 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $92.18 max $91.45.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.20 - $94.10 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.07 and $92.75 Resistance : $94.05 and $94.76
RATIO AAPL Stock over SPX ( Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )
SP500 Index ( Candles )
July 3 Follow the Range
So the Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern we had on July 1st was a sign that
we needed a pause / tiny consolidation before resuming uptrend.
I still have that scenario in mind. Hard to say if it will be in time or in price;
what I mean is that we may have a range trade or a tiny correction in the
next trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.18.
I still expect volatility to be above average today.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is came back neutral for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a break
out mode level and finally, Correlation are now back into the critical phase ( from 0.74 to 0.85 ).
Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction... See third chart below.
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a steep uptrend channel that started on June 26.
We are within a brand new consolidation channel that started on July 1 with $93.07 support and $94.05 resistance. The next move will be based on which side of that channel we have a break out or down.
Starting to trade below $92.18 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.05 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.05 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.76 max $95.05 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $93.07 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.05 but above $93.07 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $93.07 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $92.18 max $91.45.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on July 2 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.20 - $94.10 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.07 and $92.75 Resistance : $94.05 and $94.76
July 2 My Long-Legged Doji ?
Yestreday I wrote that we were getting near the end of the Euphoria phase.
We had yesterday a Long-Legged Doji Candle Pattern: The long-legged doji
suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and
that a shift in the direction of the trend may be coming.
The break of the 20 DMA bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
players. Now that we re all aboard the train, I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA now at $92.11.
I still expect volatility to be above average today.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter Trend is came back neutral for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a break out mode level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.38 to 0.74 ).
Interesting to observe that we reached the previous top in terms of Relative Volatility of June 6 were RV and Apple Shares started a correction...
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
I expect that Counter Trend to be back ONLY IF SP500 futures break the 1959 level.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.
Also, we are into a new steep uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $93.70 as support and $95.70 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $92.11 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.07 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.07 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.76 max $95.05 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $92.11 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.07 but above $92.11 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $92.11 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $91.45 max $90.70.
Apple shares performed as the SP500 on July 1 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.10 - $94.10 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.04 and $92.75 Resistance : $94.07 and $94.76
July 1 Euphoria Phase Near Over ?
We had quite a turnaround since the bottom of $89.65 reached on Juned 25.
We broke the downtrend channel, came back above the 20 DMA (Day Moving
Average) on June 27 ( now at $91.99 ) and we came back also on the 20 DMA
on the ratio of Apple Shares vs SP500. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
We can t ingnore also month end rebalancing and Counter Trend that did help
Apple Shares indeed.
The break of the 20 DMA bring a new speculative crowd known as momentum
players. Now that we re all aboard the train, I fear the risk of a tiny correction
in the next 2 trading sessions.: Testing the 20 DMA at $91.99.
I still expect volatility to be above average today.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter Trend is bullish for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a range trade mode level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.44 to 0.38 ).
Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.
I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate IF SP500 futures break the 1943 level and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.
Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 26 with $92.75 as support and $94.70 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $91.99 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $93.88 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.88 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.76 max $95.05 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $91.99 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $93.88 but above $91.99 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.99 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $91.45 max $90.70.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 30 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.30 - $93.80 with above average volatility.
Support : $92.75 and $92.30 Resistance : $93.57 and $93.73
June 30 Month End and the 20 DMA ?
Last Friday I wrote:
So I consider having met my bullish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.
We did have a close at $91.98, so above the 20 DMA that should bring
some momentum players. A close today above the 20 DMA is a must
to keep those new momentum players into the game.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
I expect volatility to be above average today. Momentum players on one side
and some month end effect ( profit taking ) for some participants should bring
some volatility at the beginning and near the end of the trading session.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a verygood mix ) and Counter Trend is bullish for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures is in a range trade mode level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.19 to 0.44 ).
Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish Last week.
I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1938 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore into a downtrend channel that started on June 10.
Also, we are into an overlap channel that started on June 16 with $91.00 as support and $92.30 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.77 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.75 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.75 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.88 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $90.77 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $92.75 but above $90.77 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $90.77 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $90.10 max $89.96.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 27 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $91.30 - $92.80 with above average volatility.
Support : $91.36 and $90.77 Resistance : $92.30 and $92.75
June 27 Next Battle: the 20 DMA
Yesterday I wrote:
I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares. I need a daily close above
$90.91 to turn bullish, unless still into consolidation mode and the risk of
slippage continue.
So I consider having met my bulish requirements. Now, the battle to win
will be to test AND close above the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average) at $91.76.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
I expect volatility to be average.
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke down the 1947 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from -0.29 to 0.19 ).
Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend turned bullish yesterday.
I still expect that Counter Trend to accelerate (especially IF SP500 futures break the 1936 level) and Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $87.85 as support and $91.35 as resistance.
Also, we are into a new uptrend channel that started on June 25 with $89.96 as support and $91.21 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $89.96 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $91.76 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.76 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $92.45 max $93.04 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $89.96 to iAm in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $91.76 but above $89.96 will mean for me that we are into a Bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $89.96 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $88.93 max $87.95.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 26 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.20 - $91.50 with average volatility.
Support : $90.37 and $89.96 Resistance : $91.35 and $91.76
June 26 Still into the Channel
We are still evolving within a tiny downtrend channel with $89.28 support
and $90.91 as resistance. I think we are near reversal on Apple Shares.
We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16. I need a daily close above $90.91 to turn bullish, unless still
into consolidation mode and the risk of slippage continue.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500 and near testing the 50 DMA on that ratio - a bad omen indeed.
( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
I expect volatility to be average.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke down the 1947 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.43 to -0.29 ).
Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.
I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.20 as support and $91.50 as resistance.
Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.28 as support and $90.91 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $89.28 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $91.50 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.50 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $92.45 max $93.04 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $90.90 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $90.90 but above $89.28 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $89.28 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $88.93 max $87.95.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 25 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $89.65 - $90.90 with average volatility.
Support : $90.19 and $89.65 Resistance : $90.90 and $91.30
June 25 My 20 DMA Rejected ?
We did again tested yesterday the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.69 )
and it was rejected violently. We did trade as high of $91.74 and fade
thereafter to close below the 20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed.
We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16. I need a daily close above $91.70 to turn bullish, unless still
into consolidation mode and the risk of slippage continue.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500 - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
I expect volatility to be above average.
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke down the 1947 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.44 to -0.43 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.
I think that Counter Trend will start and expect Apple Shares to outperform SP500 in the next few sessions
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.50 as support and $91.80 as resistance.
Also, we are into a new downtrend channel that started on June 20 with $89.70 as support and $91.30 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $89.75 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $91.70 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $91.70 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $92.45 max $93.04 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $91.70 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $91.70 but above $89.75 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $89.75 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $89.41 max $88.93.
Apple shares performed as the SP500 on June 24 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $89.40 - $90.90 with above average volatility.
Support : $89.75 and $89.41 Resistance : $90.87 and $91.30
June 24 My 20 DMA ?
Yesterday we had our Dead Cat Bounce. I was targeting towards
the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80.
We did trade as high of $91.62 and fade thereafter to close below the
20 DMA, a very weak technical stance indeed. ( Now at $91.64 ).
We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16. I need a daily close above $92.10 to turn bullish, unless still
into consolidation mode and the risk of slippage continue.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500 - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.
I expect volatility to be above average.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke up the 1947 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.41 to -0.44 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions. Counter Trend is near a turnaround.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $88.80 as support and $92.10 as resistance.
Also, we are not anymore into a consolidation channel that started on June 16 with $91.16 support and $92.45 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.36 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.45 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.45 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.10 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.10 but above $90.36 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $90.36 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $89.75 max $89.10.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 23 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.00 - $91.60 with above average volatility.
Support : $90.36 and $89.75 Resistance : $91.25 and $91.64
June 23 Dead Cat Bounce ?
Last Friday, in the last 10 minutes of the trading session, Apple Shares went
from $91.46 to $90.90 - option related. I expect a dead cat bounce towards
the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average at $91.49 ), even $91.80 today. A closing
above the 20 DMA will be more constructive technically speaking but still
into a consolidation mode. Next potential target then, the upper channel at
$92.50.
We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16. I need a daily close above $92.50 to turn bullish, unless still
into consolidation mode.
We broke on June 18 the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500 - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players and options skew are behind us.
I expect volatility to be above average.
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke up the 1942 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.01 to -0.41 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.10 as support and $92.45 as resistance.
Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June 16 with $91.20 support and $92.50 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.50 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.50 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.50 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.50 but above $91.20 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.20 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.36 max $89.10.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 20 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.00 with average volatility.
Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance : $91.80 and $92.30
June 20 Still into the Consolidation Channel ?
We are in the same kind of trading range and into the consolidation channel
since June 16. I need a daily close above $92.56 to turn bullish, unless still
into consolidation mode.
So, IF a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that bullish scenario and we
will go testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
$92.75 and $93.50 for now.
We broke yesterday the 20 DMA on the ratio of Apple Shares compare to
the SP500 - a bad omen indeed. ( See 2 nd chart below - yellow line ).
At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.
I expect volatility to be average.
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke up the 1936 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical phase ( from 0.41 to 0.01 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.40 as support and $92.75 as resistance.
Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June 16 with $91.26 support and $92.56 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.56 but above $91.26 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.26 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.36 max $89.70.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 19 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.90 - $92.80 with average volatility.
Support : $91.28 and $90.87 Resistance : $92.07 and $92.30
June 19 Consolidation Channel ?
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $89.70 as support and $93.00 as resistance.
Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new consolidation channel that started on June 16 with $91.30 support and $92.60 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $91.02 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.60 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.60 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.60 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.60 but above $91.02 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.02 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.10 max $89.70.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 18 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $91.80 - $93.00 with average volatility.
Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance : $92.75 and $93.04
June 18 Still Resuming Uptrend ?
Not much have changed since yesterday for me. We did retest the $92.70
zone and failed but we did not make a new low compare to the previous close.
A painful grind but still in the good direction and still into the Resuming
Uptrend Phase.
So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
go testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
$93.30 for now.
At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.
I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get back to average.
We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the bullish scenario, unless still into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures broke the 1936 level and finally, Correlation are not into the critical
phase ( from 0.66 to 0.78 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are still into a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with $90.00 as support and $93.30 as resistance.
Also, within that downtrend channel, there is a new uptrend channel that started on June 13 with $92.27 support and $93.85 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.90 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.10 max $88.93.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 17 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.30 with average volatility.
Support : $92.07 and $91.80 Resistance : $92.75 and $93.04
June 17 Resuming Uptrend ?
Yesterday for me was the final test of the Retail Players.
Tehnically speaking, we did not make a new low ( vs earlier day close ),
we tested the $92.75 level and failed but did not pullback tremendously.
So, a daily close above $92.56 will confirm that scenario and we will
go testing the upper resistance trendline of the downtrend channel at
$93.60 for now.
At this stage, the main slippage risk from retail players are behind us.
I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get back to average.
We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the bullish
scenario, unless still into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
broke the 1936 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.66 to 0.66 ).
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are back in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.00 as support and $93.60 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 will give us another bullish
impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.90 for now in the
next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.10 max $88.93.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 16 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $92.00 - $93.50 with average volatility.
Support : $92.07 and $91.375 Resistance : $92.75 and $93.04
June 16 My Broken Channel ?
Today s is the critical phase for the Retail Players.
The opening price last Monday morning ( June 9 ) was $91.75 and the closing
price last Friday ( June 13 ) was $91.28. That tells me that all the retail
buying is now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the
saloons door experiment.
We still can see a follow through of that capitulation phase today, because
the difference between last June 9 and now, is that the SP500 is into a
correction mode... $90.10 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...
Only a daily close above the $92.56 level will cancel that risk.
I still expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We need a daily close today above $92.56 to be back into the bullish
scenario, unless into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
broke the 1929 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.66 to 0.64 ).
Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
We are not anymore in a downtrend channel that started on June 10 with
$91.30 as support and $93.90 as resistance.
Starting to trade below $90.87 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $92.56 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $92.56 will give us another bullish
impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.04 max $93.90 for now in the
next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $92.56 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $92.56 but above $90.87 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $90.87 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.10 max $88.93.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 13 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.40 - $91.70 with above average volatility.
Support : $90.87 and $90.36 Resistance : $91.75 and $92.56
June 13 Saloons Door Experiment?
Yesterday I wrote: I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is
behind us and that hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their
holdings.The past two sessions was a real roller coaster and I think it will
be the same today.
So the opening price Monday morning was $91.75 and the closing price
yesterday was $92.29. That tells me that almost all the retail buying is
now below water. I ve been warning you of that scenario, the saloons
door experiment.
We can see a huge capitulation today, because the difference between last
Monday and now, is that the SP500 is into a correction mode...
$89.75 is the kind of total capitulation level for me...
One fact that still seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - see 3rd chart below.
So we broke the $93.15 level, turning into a consolidation, even a potential
capitulation mode.
Then I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We need a daily close today above $93.04 to be back into the bullish
scenario, unless into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
broke the 1936.5 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.78 to 0.66 ).
Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $91.25 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $93.04 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $93.04 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $93.90 max $94.30 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $93.04 to iAm in Consolidation Mode ...
A daily close below $93.04 but above $91.25 will mean for me that we are into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.25 will mean for me that we are back into a severe correction phase and another gap down towards $90.69 max $89.74.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 12 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $90.70 - $92.80 with above average volatility.
Support : $91.25 and $90.69 Resistance : $92.02 and $92.77
June 12 The ET Experiment - Final Coundown ?
We are going into the Final Countdown of the ET Experiment. ET stand for
Euphoria phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. Yesterday was a real roller
coaster and I think it will be the same today.
One fact that seems unreal to me is that with that kind of price volatility
that we did go through on the past two sessions, Relative Volatility fell,
indicating profit taking - see 3rd chart below.
I really fear the fact that now most of the retail buying is behind us and that
hedge fund and or iCahn take profit on a portion of their holdings.
You can tell me that we did close above my critical $93.40 level yesterday
and today will be the same game plan but with a tiny change - my level is
now $93.15. On the other side, the kind of volatility in Apple Shares AND NOT
in the SP500 makes the battle of retail and institutional a major factor of
indecision, technically speaking.
Now that most retail players have bought and they are long, today still a
critical test: Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
close above $93.15 - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.15 level, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?
Then I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We still need a daily close today above $93.15 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
broke the 1927 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.84 to 0.78 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $93.15 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 will give us another bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $95.40 max $95.80 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $93.15 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $95.05 but above $93.15 will mean for me that we are into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $93.15 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $91.75 max $90.87.
Apple shares underperformed the SP500 on June 11 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.40 and $93.15 Resistance : $94.27 and $95.05
June 11 The ET Experiment - part 2 ?
We are going into the part 2 of the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria
phase and Timber or Tumble thereafter. We surely saw a lot of retail buying
into Apple Shares on June 9 and June 10; so for me the Euphoria Phase is
over. We are now starting the test of the Timber Phase.
Now that most have bought and they are long, today start the critical test:
Either or:
1) On the pullback they keep buying again and they are able to have a daily
close above $93.40 - for me that will be good technically speaking.
2) Or Breaking the $93.40 level, so unable to keep the price up:
will we see a panic selling?
Then I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We still need a daily close today above $92.60 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
Relative Volatility rose slightly ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1927 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.83 to 0.84 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $92.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $95.05 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $95.05 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $95.40 max $95.80 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $92.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $95.05 but above $92.60 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $92.60 will mean for me that we are back into a correction phase and another gap down towards $91.75 max $90.87.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 10 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $93.40 - $94.70 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.40 and $93.04 Resistance : $94.27 and $95.05
June 10
The ET Experiment ?
We are going into the ET Experiment. ET stand for Euphoria phase and
Timber or Tumble thereafter. We surely saw yesterday a lot of retail buying
into Apple Shares. That may continue 1 MAX 2 sessions into Euphoria phase.
Then after, only long remains, the risk is to see iCahn or some hedge fund
dumping their shares.
ThenI expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We still need a daily close today above $92.10 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
We are into a bullish phase, as long as $92.10 hold.
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1927 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.74 to 0.83 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $92.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.69 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.69 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.94 max $95.50 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $92.10 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.69 but above $92.10 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $92.10 will mean for me that we are back into a
correction phase and another gap down towards $90. 87 max $89.75.
Apple shares outperformed the SP500 on June 9 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $93.00 - $94.70 with above average volatility.
Support : $93.88 and $93.04 Resistance : $94.38 and $94.69
June 9 The Stock Split ?
With the stock split effective June 9 and retail participants interest plus
potentially Icahn selling a portion of his holding, I expect volatility in the
next few sessions to get to extreme.
I Expect Retail Players Buying into the next few sessions but the timing of
Icahn is a lot more tougher to forecast.
We still need a daily close today above $91.60 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
We are into a bullish phase, as long as $91.60 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.85 to 0.74 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $91.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $94.12 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $94.12 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $94.70 max $95.20 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $91.60 to iAm still in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $94.12 but above $91.60 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $91.60 will mean for me that we are back into a
correction phase and another gap down towards $90.87 max $89.97.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 6 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $91.60 - $93.54 with above average volatility.
Support : $92.07 and $91.60 Resistance : $93.04 and $93.54
June 6 Expect Volatility Ahead ?
With the stock split looming ( will start to trade at a new price on June 9 )
and that retail participants interest plus potentially Icahn selling a portion
of his holding, I expect volatility in the next few sessions to get to extreme.
We still need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
We are into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.80 to 0.85 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $656.00 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $656.00 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $659.50 max $662.60 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $656.00 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me that we are back into a
correction phase and another gap down towards $622.50 max $614.70.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 5 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $636 - $652 with above average volatility.
Support : $644.20 and $638.70 Resistance : $652.50 and $656.00
June 5 D-Day for Apple Shares ?
Yesterday, we did closed above my level ( $634.80 level ) and then changed
the scenario from consolidation to back to bullish.
BUT we need a daily close today above $636.10 to stay into the bullish
scenario, unless back into consolidation mode.
We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $636.10 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.90 to 0.80 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $636.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $653.60 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $653.60 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $657.10 max $660.00 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $636.10 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $653.60 but above $636.10 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $636.10 will mean for me that we are back into a
correction phase and another gap down towards $628.20 max $622.50.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 4 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $638 - $650 with above average volatility.
Support : $642.20 and $638.70 Resistance : $653.60 and $657.10
June 4 D-Day for Apple Shares ?
Well, I was astonished to see the behavior of Apple Shares yesterday. It did
closed above my level ( $634.80 level ) and then changed the scenario
from consolidation to back to bullish.
BUT we need a daily close today above that level ( $634.80 ) to stay into the
bullish scenario, unless it will be a false signal and back into consolidation
mode. Because of that, it s D-Day.
We are back into a bullish phase, as long as $634.80 hold.
Relative Volatility fell again ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.98 to 0.90 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $631.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $649.00 max $652.00 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $634.80 to iAm back in Bullish Mode ...
A daily close below $644.20 but above $634.80 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $634.80 will mean for me a risk of a more quicker and
severe correction phase and another gap down towards $628.20 max $622.50.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on June 3 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $633 - $642 with above average volatility.
Support : $634.80 and $631.50 Resistance : $639.40 and $644.20
June 3 Officially in Consolidation Mode ?
We broke the $631.60 level on a daily close yesterday. What I was expecting
since last Friday is officially confirmed. We are into a consolidation phase,
then targeting MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.
And historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices in the WWDC week.
I am just wondering at this point in time if the consolidation will be deeper
and more violent than expected before resuming uptrend. ( $609.90??)
We are into a short term consolidation phase, as long as $634.80 hold.
Relative Volatility fell abruptly ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a bearish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.99 to 0.98 ).
Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $620.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $634.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $634.80 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $636.70 max $644.20 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $634.80 to iAm in Consolidation ...
A daily close below $634.80 but above $620.20 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions
A daily close below $620.20 will mean for me a risk of a more quicker and
severe correction phase and another gap down towards $614.70 max $609.90.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on June 2 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $620 - $631 with above average volatility.
Support : $622.50 and $614.70 Resistance : $629.80 and $634.80
June 2 The WWDC Week ?
This is the WWDC week ( Worldwide Developers Conference ) from Apple.
A lot of expectations and rumours about new products annoucement.
But historically speaking, for the past 10 years, Apple Shares prices
finish the week lower in prices.
Last Friday we had that first consolidation warning. I think it will continue
all week long. The gap up near the stock split and retail buying will end badly
as Icahn will dump part of his holding.
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions. $631.60 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
MAX the $614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.
We are still into a short term bullish trend, as long as $631.60 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a very bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.94 to 0.99 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $631.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $644.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $644.20 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $649.00 max $651.90 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $631.60 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $644.20 but above $631.60 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $631.60 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $624.90 max $614.70 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 29 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $627 - $640 with above average volatility.
Support : $629.80 and $624.90 Resistance : $636.90 and $639.40
May 30 Runaway Train?
Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. And this week, it
become a runaway train. That potential scenario explained in my research
last Sunday is the leat interesting. The gap up near the stock split and retail
buying will end badly as Icahn will dump part of his holding.
But during that period, enjoy the ride...
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions. $631.90 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$614.70 as the level to hold to stay bullish long term.
We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $631.90 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1904 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.93 to 0.94 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $631.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $643.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $643.40 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $646.90 max $650.00 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $631.90 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $643.40 but above $631.90 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $631.90 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $623.80 max $614.70 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 29 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $630 - $643 with above average volatility.
Support : $633.80 and $631.90 Resistance : $640.00 and $643.40
May 29 Consolidation Phase ?
Apple Shares performed extremely well since mid-April. But indicators are
pointing to near term overbought conditions. My Ultimate monthly target of
$629.80 was reached on May 28.
And yesterday, we had a nasty candle at the top of the range...
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions. $623.40 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold to stay bullish.
We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are now into the critical
phase ( from 0.91 to 0.93 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $633.40 max $635.60 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $603.50 max $596.10 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 28 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $618 - $630 with above average volatility.
Support : $623.40 and $618.20 Resistance : $629.80 and $633.40
May 28 Near Euphoria End ?
Apple Shares are on fire. But indicators are pointing to near term overbought
conditions. My Ultimate monthly target of $629.80 is almost already reach.
I do not turn bearish but will not be surprise of a consolidation period
for a few sessions. $621.30 will tell me that ( a close below ) then targeting
$609.90 as the level to hold.
We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $609.90 hold.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are not into the critical
phase( from 0.48 to 0.91 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $609.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $629.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $629.80 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $631.50 max $635.00 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $609.90 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $629.80 but above $609.90 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $609.90 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $603.50 max $596.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 27 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $621 - $630 with above average volatility.
Support : $621.30 and $618.50 Resistance : $629.80 and $631.50
May 27 Last Impulse ?
Apple Shares are on fire. Most of the bullish factors are at play almost at the
same time.Today, I think that we will see more Counter Trend trades
( so sellers of SP500 to buy Apple Shares ).
Also, since we broke the relative level on May 16 compare to the SP500,
Apple Shares technical impulse gained in strenght. That relative performance
must stay above the amber line level for technical strenght to continue.
( See 2nd chart below ).
We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $608.60 hold.
Last week, we had a technical bullish impulse. We are getting near a huge
congestion zone ( $614 to $621 ) back in 2012 where I think we will
see a pause / consolidation...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore
into the critical phase( from 0.50 to 0.48 ).
Those risks factors are bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $606.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $619.50 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $619.50 will give us another
bullish impulse scenario and direct go towards $622.50 max $624.40 for
now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $608.60 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $619.50 but above $608.60 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $608.60 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $603.50 max $596.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 23 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $612 - $621 with above average volatility.
Support : $614.70 and $609.90 Resistance : $619.50 and $622.50
May 23 Counter Trend + Tricky Fridays ?
Two contrarian factors at play.
Today will be very tricky, like all Fridays: Usually bearish. On the other side,
I think that we will see Counter Trend trades ( so sellers of SP500 to buy
Apple Shares ). So a tough call but must follow the technical levels.
Yesterday, to have a technical bullish impulse, we needed to close above the
$610.40 level. Today, it is $613.60...
We are still into a bullish trend, as long as $597.30 hold.
I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures stayed broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore
into the critical phase( from 0.04 to 0.50 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $613.60 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $613.60 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $615.90 max $617.70 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $613.60 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario.
A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $594.00 max $589.50 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 22 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $603 - $612 with above average volatility.
Support : $602.50 and $597.30 Resistance : $609.90 and $613.60
May 22 Consolidation Phase Still ?
Not much have changed for me since yesterday.
After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. We need to
stay above $597.30 for that scenario...
I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures stayed broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are not anymore
into the critical phase( from -0.21 to 0.04 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $613.90 max $617.30 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
into a conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $594.20 max $589.50 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 21 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $601 - $610 with above average volatility.
Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance : $607.30 and $610.40
May 21 Consolidation Phase ?
After a new high on May 19 at $607.33 , we started a consolidation phase
that will last a few sessions. The market is still in a macro bullish technical
set up BUT we need to consolidate before resuming uptrend. We need to
stay above $597.30 for that scenario...
I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...
Relative Volatility fell ( with stable prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
stayed in the range and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical
phase( from 0.24 to -0.21 ).
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $613.90 max $617.30 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
into a conolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $594.20 max $589.50 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 20 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $598 - $607 with above average volatility.
Support : $600.60 and $597.30 Resistance : $607.30 and $610.40
May 20 A Trio of Broken Resistance ?
A lot of interesting technical factors happened again yesterday.
1) We did close above the resistance of $597.50 for a bullish impulse.
2) We did close above the channel resistance line ( now support at $601.50 -
see first chart below ).
3) On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we broke the
high resistance level made on December 5 2013.
I just want to mention that the $614 to $621 zone was a huge congestion
zone back in 2012 where I think we will see a pause...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
stayed in the range and finally, Correlation are not anymore into the critical
phase( from 0.46 to 0.24 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $597.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $610.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $610.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $613.90 max $617.30 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $597.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $610.40 but above $597.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $597.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $594.20 max $589.50 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 19 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $601 - $611 with above average volatility.
Support : $601.50 and $597.30 Resistance : $610.40 and $613.90
May 19 $597.50 Zone Being Tested?
A lot of interesting technical factors happened last Friday.
1) We did test the crutial level of $586.30 and rebounded strongly from there.
2) We did close at the resistance zone of $597.50 - the upper side of my range.
3) On a ratio basis with the SP500 ( see second chart below ), we are
challenging again the high resistance level made on December 5 2013.
We need to clear the $597.50 level ( trade above and stay above ) on a daily
close to finally get out of that range and have the next bullish impulse..
Unless,there still a risk of a retest of $586.40, level crucial to hold to stay
into the bullish camp...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke down the 1874 level and finally, Correlation are into the
critical phase ( from 0.82 to 0.46 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last few sessions.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $586.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.50 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.50 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $600.50 max $604.40 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.40 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.40 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.40 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $580.30 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 16 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $592 - $601 with above average volatility.
Support : $591.70 and $586.40 Resistance : $597.50 and $600.50
May 16 Need to Stay Above $586.30 ?
Same game plan here but risk of a slippage of Apple Shares are climbing.
We tested again yesterday the $597.40 zone and failed to stay above - a weak
technical sign. SP500 futures did not hold the 1882 level, Correlation risks
are in the danger zone and we are so close of the $586.30 level...
We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a retest
of $586.30, level crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures broke the 1882 level and finally, Correlation are into the
critical zone ( from 0.63 to 0.82 ).
Those risks factors are bearish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $601.00 max $604.40 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $580.30 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 15 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $583 - $594 with above average volatility.
Support : $586.40 and $580.30 Resistance : $594.20 and $597.40
May 15 Counter Trend is Back ?
I think we start to saw yesterday some Countrend Trend Shifts form SP500
towards Apple Shares. That make them more resilient of a correction for now.
That outperformance will continue for a few sessions, even more if SP500
futures break the 1882 level.
We need to clear the $597.40 level on a daily close to finally get out of that
range and have the next bullish impulse.. Unless,there still a risk of a slippage
and a retest of $586.30, level crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures fell from the 1898 level and finally, Correlation are not into the
critical zone at all ( from 0.49 to 0.63 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $586.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $601.00 max $604.40 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $597.40 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $580.30 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 14 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $587 - $596 with above average volatility.
Support : $590.70 and $587.40 Resistance : $597.40 and $599.40
May 14
Same Game Plan Here but I think that today we will go test the $586.30,
level crucial to hold to stay into the bullish camp...
Apple Shares will outperform SP500 but with a tiny corretion expected today
for the SP500 should bring the test of $586.30 for Apple Shares.
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more bullish behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures closed above the 1883 level and finally, Correlation are not into the
critical zone at all ( from 0.41 to 0.49 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $601.00 max $604.40 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $580.30 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 13 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $586 - $595 with above average volatility.
Support : $587.40 and $586.30 Resistance : $594.50 and $597.30
May 13 A New Trend ?
Yesterday I wrote: Near Resuming Uptrend...
By having a daily close above the $592.40 level, it then confirm that the
correction is behind us with $580.33 as low. For that scenario to unfold, we
should not trade below $586.30...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good mix ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more neutral behavior for Apple Shares since SP500
Futures closed above the 1884 level and finally, Correlation are not into the
critical zone at all ( from 0.23 to 0.41 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bulish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $601.00 max $604.40 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.30 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $580.30 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 12 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $586 - $597 with above average volatility.
Support : $587.40 and $586.30 Resistance : $594.20 and $597.30
May 12 Near Resuming Uptrend ?
Last Friday I wrote: Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell
me that the consolidation will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ) with
my Ultimate target of $575.14: which will become another buying opportunity.
For that scenario to unfold, we need a daily close below $592.40. If not, it
means that we already made the lows and ready for the next bull phase.
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is turning to a more negative behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
closed above the 1868 level and finally, Correlation are not into the critical
zone at all ( from 0.09 to 0.23 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $580.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $592.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $592.40 will give us another
bullish scenario and direct go towards $597.30 max $601.00 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $592.40 to iAm still in Consolidation ...
A daily close below $592.40 but above $580.30 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $580.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $575.10 max $572.50 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 9 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $583 - $593 with above average volatility.
Support : $580.30 and $575.10 Resistance : $589.50 and $592.40
May 9 Consolidation Still ?
Same Game Plan : Testing the $586.36 level and when broken, will confirm
to me that we will retest the $575.14 which will become another buying
opportunity.
Why I say so. Because there is still the possibility of a consolidation in time
vs price. Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell me that the
consolidation will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ).
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is turning to a more negative behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
closed above the 1868 level and finally, Correlation are not into the critical
zone at all ( from 0.04 to 0.09 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $579.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $594.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $594.20 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $597.30 max $601.00 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $594.20 to iAm still in Consolidation ...
A daily close below $594.20 but above $584.40 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $584.40 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $579.70 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 8 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $580 - $590 with above average volatility.
Support : $584.40 and $579.70 Resistance : $589.50 and $594.20
May 8 Consolidation Phase ?
Yesterday I wrote:Today is D-Day for the price action: we must hold $594.20
on a daily close to stay bullish... We did not. So we will do so by testing
first the $586.36 level and when broken, will confirm to me that we will
retest the $575.14 which will become another buying opportunity.
Why I say so. Because there is still the possibility of a consolidation in time
vs price. Only breaking the $586.30 level on a daily close will tell me that the
consolidation will be on price intead of time. ( range trade ).
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 6 and closed
lower (compare to the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013
(see second chart below - Amber Line + ellipses).
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is turning to a more nehative behavior for Apple Shares since SP500 Futures
closed above the 1868 level and finally, Correlation are not into the critical
zone at all ( from 0.00 to 0.04 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bearish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $586.30 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $597.30 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $597.30 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $604.40 max $607.90 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay below on a daily close $597.30 to iAm still in Consolidation ...
A daily close below $597.30 but above $586.30 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.30 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $579.70 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 7 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $585 - $594 with above average volatility.
Support : $586.30 and $584.40 Resistance : $594.20 and $597.30
May 7 Market Turmoil ?
Yesterday was a perfect storm for the Mighty SP500 and bring with that price
pressure on the broad market some profit taking in Apple Shares as reflected
by the lower relative Volatility.
Today is D-Day for the price action: we must hold $594.20 on a daily close
to stay bullish...
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 6 and closed
higher (compare to the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013
(see second chart below - Amber Line + ellipses).
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - a bad mix ) and Counter Trend
is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation are
not into the critical zone at all ( from 0.73 to 0.00 ).
Those risks factors are slightly bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $589.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $604.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $604.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $607.90 max $611.90 for now
in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $594.20 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $604.40 but above $594.20 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $594.20 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $589.70 max $586.40 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on May 6 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $590 - $601 with above average volatility.
Support : $594.20 and $589.70 Resistance : $597.50 and $601.00
May 6 3 for 1 ?
Yesterday was a 3 for 1 technical strenght behavior for Apple Shares.
1) We tested the bottom zone near the $589.50 level and rebounded strongly
2) We closed at a new high and cracked the $600 level
3) We made a new high on the ratio (Apple vs SP500)
So the Consolidation period did not last long.
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on May 5 and closed
higher (compare to the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013
(see second chart below - Amber Line + ellipses) : Interesting...
Relative Volatility was stable ( with stronger prices ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from 0.40 to 0.73 ).
Those risks factors are neutral compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $594.20 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $606.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $606.80 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $609.80
max $612.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $594.20 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $606.80 but above $594.20 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $594.20 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $589.50 max $586.40 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 5 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $596 - $606 with above average volatility.
Support : $597.60 and $594.20 Resistance : $603.70 and $606.80
May 5 Consolidation Still ?
We are still into a same pattern of the past three sessions but with tiny
change on technical levels. We need some Consolidation.
Breaking the $589.50 level on a daily close will tell me that we will retest
the $575.10 level before resuming uptrend. The best technical scenario is
a hit of the $575.10 level and bounce to retest the $589.50 level...
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
Relative Volatility was stable ( with weaker prices ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from 0.19 to 0.40 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $603.20
max $605.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $582.50 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 2 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $583 - $593 with above average volatility.
Support : $586.40 and $582.50 Resistance : $594.20 and $596.00
May 2 Time VS Price?
We are still into a same pattern of the past two sessions but with tiny
change on technical levels. We need some Consolidation. The question that
I am asking myself is: Can we have a consolidation more in time that in
prices to allow technical indicators to go from ovebought condidions ?
Breaking the $589.50 level on a daily close will tell me that we will retest
the $575.10 level before resuming uptrend.
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
Relative Volatility fell again ( with weaker prices - a very bad sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from -0.08 to 0.19 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $603.20
max $605.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me a risk of a consolidation phase
and another gap down towards $582.50 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on May 1 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $586 - $596 with above average volatility.
Support : $589.50 and $586.40 Resistance : $596.00 and $599.40
May 1 Counter Trend Behavior ?
We are into a same pattern as I wrote yesterday but with tiny change on
technical levels. We need some Consolidation. Breaking the $589.50 level
will tell me that we will retest the $575.10 level.
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
Relative Volatility fell again ( with weaker prices - a very bad sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from -0.24 to -0.08 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $589.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $599.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $599.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $603.20
max $605.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $589.50 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $599.40 but above $589.50 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $589.50 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $582.50 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 30 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $585 - $596 with above average volatility.
Support : $589.50 and $585.70 Resistance : $596.00 and $599.40
Apr 30 Reality Check ?
I think that at this point, the ones who needs to buy Apple Shares already
did it. We need some Consolidation. Breaking the $586.80 level will tell me
that we will retest the $575.10 level.
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares challenged on April 28 (compare to
the SP500), the previous high made on December 5 2013 (see second chart
below - ellipses) and failed to break the level on that ratio: Very Interesting..
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a bad sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from -0.21 to -0.24 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $586.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $596.00 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $596.00 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $601.30
max $604.70 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $586.80 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $596.00 but above $586.80 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $586.80 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $581.20 max $575.10 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 29 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $585 - $596 with above average volatility.
Support : $586.80 and $583.90 Resistance : $594.50 and $596.00
Apr 29 Euphoria Phase ?
Yesterday I was wrong. I thought that Apple Shares needed one day for
Consolidation. Instead, we broke violently the $575.10 level and exploded
on the upside.
We are into an Euphoria Phase and not sure the Volatility will decrease
( from yesterday yes, but not from usual volatility on Apple Shares ).
We must not forget that at some point, iCahn will have to sell...
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares are now challenging ( compare to
the SP500 ), the previous high made on December 5 2013 ( see second
chart below - ellipses ).
Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
In term of relative pricing, Apple Shares are now challenging ( compare to
the SP500 ), the previous high made on December 5 2013 ( see second
chart below - ellipses ).
Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a very good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from +0.10 to +0.10 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $583.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $601.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $601.20 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $604.60
max $607.30 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $583.80 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $601.20 but above $583.80 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $583.80 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $577.50 max $571.90 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 28 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $590 - $601 with above average volatility.
Support : $590.10 and $586.60 Resistance : $601.20 and $604.60
Apr 28 All Aboard ?
With SP500 more stable this morning and most of the rebalancing and
Counter Trend Mostly Done on last Friday, I think that it will be a lot more
difficult at this point for Apple Shares to continue to perform like that.
So the Bulls need absolutely to break AND close above the $575.10 today.
Failing to do so can bring a consolidation phase this week. Already, starting
to trade below $567.70 will be the first sign of the consolidation phase...
Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a less positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are not into the critical zone ( from +0.59 to +0.10 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $560.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $577.60 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $575.10 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $580.60
max $583.20 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $567.70 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $575.10 but above $567.70 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $567.70 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $564.10 max $560.70 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 25 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $567 - $577 with above average volatility.
Support : $567.70 and $564.10 Resistance : $575.10 and $577.60
Apr 25 Yesterday I thought that finally with all those good news on Apple, the stock
should at least test the $575.10 level; it didn t, a huge technical deception...
So today I expect a consolidation wave with lower prices - $558.40
MAX $554.80. Already starting to trade below $560.70 will be the first sign
for that scenario to unfold......
Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.70 to +0.59 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last session.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $554.80 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $570.00 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $570.00 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $575.10
max $582.90 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $560.70 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $570.00 but above $560.70 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $560.70 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $558.40 max $554.80 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 24 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $558 - $568 with above average volatility.
Support : $560.70 and $558.40 Resistance : $567.70 and $570.00
Apr 24 Houston, we had a Lift Off ?
We had very good financial results from Apple Yesterday.
Take note that working with extended technical levels, it is less precise
than real historical trading data...
Relative Volatility rose ( with weaker prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.72 to +0.70 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $554.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $575.10 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $575.10 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $582.90
max $594.60 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $554.70 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $575.10 but above $554.70 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $554.70 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $549.00 max $543.50 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 23 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $555 - $575 with above average volatility.
Support : $558.30 and $554.70 Resistance : $567.70 and $575.10
Apr 23 D-Day on ER ?
We are now on Day-Day for ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, we should have a corrective Wednesday in Price.
See APPLE Technicals Behavior - Counter Trend and ER ?
So according to price history behavior near ER, we saw last Monday as the
short term top ( $532.14 ) for Apple Shares.
Relative Volatility fell ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.65 to +0.72 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
Starting to trade below $526.50 will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $526.50 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $535.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $535.80 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $540.10
max $543.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $526.50 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $535.80 but above $526.50 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $526.50 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $523.20 max $519.20 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 22 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $525 - $535 with average volatility.
AFTER ER : Expect $493 - $575
Support : $526.50 and $523.20 Resistance : $535.80 and $540.10
AFTER ER:
Support : $517.10 and $511.30 and $ $493.50 Resistance : $549.00 and $560.20 and $575.10
Apr 22 ER Behavior ?
Yesterday I wrote:
We are now very close of ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, we should have a Bullish Monday followed by a corrective Tuesday
and Wednesday. See APPLE Technicals Behavior - Counter Trend and ER ?
So according to price history behavior near ER, we saw yesterday or we will
see this morning the short term top for Apple Shares.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.55 to +0.65 ).
Those risks factors are less bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
Starting to trade below $525.80 will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $522.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $535.10 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $535.10 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $538.90
max $543.50 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $525.80 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $535.10 but above $525.80 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $525.80 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $522.40 max $519.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 21 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $525 - $535 with average volatility.
Support : $525.80 and $522.40 Resistance : $531.30 and $535.10
Apr 21 ER Fever ?
On April 17 I wrote:
We need to break the $520.40 level on a short term basis to finally get
out of the mud zone. A daily close above that level will confirm a new
bull trend.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.51 to +0.55 ).
Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
We are now very close of ER ( Earnings Release ). Usually, IF history repeat
itself, we should have a Bullish Monday followed by a corrective Tuesday
and Wednesday.
Being able to clear and stay above $522.80 will be quite bullish for Apple
Shares. Starting to trade below will tell me that the up wave before ER is over.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $519.90 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $530.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $527.80 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $530.80
max $531.30 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to stay above on a daily close $522.80 to iAm still Bullish ...
A daily close below $527.80 but above $522.80 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $522.80 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $519.90 max $517.10 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 17 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $522 - $531 with average volatility.
Support : $522.80 and $519.90 Resistance : $527.80 and $530.80
Apr 17 Stuck in the Mud ?
Yesterday we had finally some signs of a counter trend: switching from
SP500 towards Apple Shares. I think that will continue.
We need to break the $520.40 level on a short term basis to finally get
out of the mud zone. A daily close above that level will confirm a new
bull trend.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.76 to +0.51 ).
Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE REACHED THAT MARK.
Being able to clear and stay above $520.40 will be quite bullish for Apple
Shares. For that scenario to unfold, we must not trade below $511.30 anymore...
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $514.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $520.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $520.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $524.80
max $526.10 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $520.40 to iTurn Bullish ...
A daily close below $520.40 but above $514.10 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $514.10 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $511.30 max $509.90 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 16 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $511 - $522 with average volatility.
Support : $514.10 and $511.30 Resistance : $520.40 and $521.90
Apr 16 Captitulation my Dear?
Yesterday we had finally a strong pattern of capitulation. We did retest
the low of Novembwe 2013 at $512.38 ( it trade $511.33 ) and we rebounded
violently from that level. Then it became a stronger technical pattern.
That I was expecting in the two previous sessions. Now, weak hands are
cleared and Apple Shares can start from a solid footing...
Relative Volatility fell ( with weaker prices - another capitulation sign ) and
Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.91 to +0.76 ).
Those risks factors are more bullish compare to the last two previous sessions .
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark. WE ARE NEAR THAT MARK.
Being able to clear and stay above $524.30 will be quite bullish for Apple
Shares. For that scenario to unfold, we must not trade below $515.60 anymore...
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $515.60 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $524.30 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $524.30 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $526.10
max $530.30 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $524.30 to iTurn Bullish ...
A daily close below $524.30 but above $515.60 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $515.60 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $512.40 max $511.30 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 15 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $515 - $524 with average volatility.
Support : $517.10 and $515.60 Resistance : $521.90 and $524.30
Apr 15 D Day for Apple Shares
Yesterday we had a weak pattern of capitulation. We did retest almost
the low of April 11 at $517.14 ( it trade $517.21 ) and we rebounded
from that level. I had like to see a lower low ( kind of $515.60 ) and
rebound from there. It will be a more stronger technical pattern.
Relative Volatility rose ( with stronger prices - a good sign ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and
Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.94 to +0.91 ).
Those risks factors are slighlty bullish compare to last week.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.
I think that today is D Day for Apple Shares. Being able to clear and stay
above $523.80 will be quite bullish for Apple Shares. For that scenario to
unfold, we must not trade below $517.10 anymore...
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $517.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $523.80 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $523.80 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $526.10
max $529.60 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $523.80 to iTurn Bullish ...
A daily close below $523.80 but above $517.10 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $517.10 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $512.40 max $510.40 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 14 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $518 - $526 with average volatility.
Support : $517.10 and $515.60 Resistance : $523.80 and $526.10
Apr 14 Near Turnaround ?
Last Friday I wrote:
A daily close below $521.90 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $518.70 max $515.60 for now.
Relative Volatility fell ( with lower prices - a bad sign - Read Research )
and Counter Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares
and Correlation are now into the critical zone ( from +0.94 to +0.94 ).
( Read Correlation Research ).
Those risks factors are slighlty bullish compare to last week.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.
I think we can have today the final wave of capitulation phase of the market
and/or a daily close above $523.40.
My capitulation level for Apple Shares is $512.38 to $515.60 zone.
That should be the turnaround sign for Apple Shares...
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $512.40 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $523.40 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $523.40 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $526.10
max $529.60 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $523.40 to iTurn Bullish ...
A daily close below $523.40 but above $515.60 will mean for me that we are
into a correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $515.60 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $512.40 max $510.40 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 11 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $513 - $525 with average volatility.
Support : $515.60 and $512.40 Resistance : $523.40 and $526.10
Apr 11 Wave 2 ?
Yesterday I wrote:
Today is a lot more tricky; for me , we must stay above the 50 DMA now at
$528.71 to continue the bullish phase. And we did not...
Relative Volatility fell ( with lower prices - a bad sign ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
are now into the critical zone ( from +0.97 to +0.94 ).
Those risks factors are slighlty bearish compare to yesterday.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.
I think we can have today the wave 2 of capitulation phase of the market.
My capitulation level for Apple Shares is $515.60 zone.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $518.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $529.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $529.20 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $533.30
max $537.40 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $529.20 to iTurn Bullish ...
A daily close below $529.20 but above $521.90 will mean for me that we are
into a correction pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $521.90 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $518.70 max $515.60 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 10 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $518 - $527 with average volatility.
Support : $518.70 and $515.60 Resistance : $526.10 and $529.20
Apr 10 Tricky Follow Through ?
Yesterday we had the expected dead cat bounce towards the 50 DMA then
at $528.24 and we did have a close above, a very good sign indeed.
Today is a lot more tricky; for me , we must stay above the 50 DMA now at
$528.71 to continue the bullish phase. Being able to trade today and break
the 20 DMA ( at $533.67 ) will give another bullish impulse.
Also, Relative Volatility rose ( with higher prices - a good sig ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
are now into the critical zone ( from +0.97 to +0.97 ).
Those risks factors are neutral compare to yesterday.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk when back
below the 0.75 mark.
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $526.10 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $533.70 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $533.70 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $537.40
max $540.00 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $528.70 to iContinue a Bullish Trend...
A daily close below $533.70 but above $528.70 will mean for me that we are
into a bullish pattern trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $528.70 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $526.10 max $521.90 for now.
Apple shares Outperformed the SP500 on April 9 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $526 - $535 with average volatility.
Support : $528.70 and $526.10 Resistance : $533.70 and $537.40
Apr 9 Dead Cat Bounce ?
Yesterday we saw twoTechnical factors quite interesting: a test of the
50 DMA on the SP500 and almost a capitulation phase for Apple Shares
Also, Relative Volatility rose ( with lower prices - a bad omen ) and Counter
Trend is turning to a more positive behavior for Apple Shares and Correlation
are now into the critical zone ( from +0.88 to +0.97 ).
Those risks factors are slightly less bullish than yesterday.
Correlation risk is putting Apple Shares still on a slippage risk.
I think today we will have a dead cat bounce and a test of the 50 DMA
at $528.24 MAX the 20 DMA at $533.98. A closing above the 50 DMA will
give another impulse in the next few sessions...
Now back to technicals:
Starting to trade below $518.70 will mean to me extreme technical weakness...
Starting to trade AND stay above $528.20 will mean to me technical strenght...
The ride will be an above average volatility pattern kind of price action.
Starting to trade and/or a daily close above $528.20 will give us another
bullish push scenario and direct go towards $534.00
max $537.20 for now in the next few sessions.
Need to have a daily close above $528.20 to shift towards a Bull Trend...
A daily close below $528.20 but above $518.70 will mean for me that we are
into a consolidation mode trade scenario for a few sessions.
A daily close below $518.70 will mean for me a risk of another gap down
towards $515.60 max $512.00 for now.
Apple shares Underperformed the SP500 on April 8 (2nd chart below).
Expect a day trading range between $522 - $531 with average volatility.
Support : $521.90 and $518.70 Resistance : $528.80 and $530.90
AAPL Stock Price Daily ( Candle Chart )
AAPL Relative Volatility ( Candle Chart )
7 DMA ( Yellow Line )
7 DMA ( Yellow Line )
