FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
DAILY TECHNICALS
COT ( Commitment of Traders )

​​As we can observe on the graph below, Small speculators started cutting to their long position of the SP500 the past week 
blue line )  and Large Speculators decreasing their short positions ( green line )
Seasonality

​​And as we can see on the graph below, the Seasonals are turning bearish for the SP500 til the third week of May...

Today is the Tricky NFP ( Nonfarm payroll ). Consensus is +211K.

The best scenario for the market to continue to grind is​ a number just
slightlty above the consensus. Because if too strong ( over 300k ), market
​will​ have to price a FED that will accelerate its reverse QE. If too weak
​( below 150k ), then market may fear a real slowdown after that disatrous
Q1 GDP.​

​​​​We are still evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965
​support and 1983.5 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

Market can be real tricky not only because of the NFP, but because of
​illiquidity just before a long week end.
​​​
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1965 support level absolutely. Unless it will become the Saloons Door Trap.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.


​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Slightly Positive: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Risk Taking is at the Top: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : New High ?
3) Market Full Complacency : SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?



​​Back to the technical levels now.                                                                                                      Disclaimer


​We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).

We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965 support and 1983.5 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay above 1965 for that scenario to unfold. That 1965 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.


​​​​IF 1965 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1953.5 and 1945 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1972 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1983.5 and 1990 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1905 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1965 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1905 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6 but with a grinding bullish pattern from July 2nd . ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​
​​​The market should trade today between ​​1959 and 1978.
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​





















And Small Speculators started to cut to their long positions in June as shown by the chart below....
​SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily U4 -  Tricky NFP   ?   - PREMIUM USERS
​July 3 ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SP500 Futures Daily U4 - The May Experiment ?  $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500

July 3  Tricky NFP ?


​​Today is the Tricky NFP ( Nonfarm payroll ). Consensus is +211K.

The best scenario for the market to continue to grind is​ a number just
slightlty above the consensus. Because if too strong ( over 300k ), market
​will​ have to price a FED that will accelerate its reverse QE. If too weak
​( below 150k ), then market may fear a real slowdown after that disatrous
Q1 GDP.​

​​​​We are still evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965
​support and 1983.5 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

Market can be real tricky not only because of the NFP, but because of
​illiquidity just before a long week end.
​​​
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1965 support level absolutely. Unless it will become the Saloons Door Trap.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.


​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Slightly Positive: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) Risk Taking is at the Top: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : New High ?
​3) Market Full Complacency : SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).

We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1965 support and 1983.5 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay above 1965 for that scenario to unfold. That 1965 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.


​​​​IF 1965 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1953.5 and 1945 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1972 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1983.5 and 1990 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1905 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1965 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1905 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6 but with a grinding bullish pattern from July 2nd . ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1959 and 1978. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.


​​July 2  Broken Range + New Channel ?


Yesterday I wrote:
​Now, we still can expect a narrow trading range: 1943 to 1963. I was wrong.

​​We had yesterday a break out of that range and get into a new uptrend
​channel, more steeper than the previous one.

​​​​We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1959.5
​support and 1978 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

What history tells us, is that when we have a corrective June month end​
followed by a huge uptick on July 1st, very often we have a corrective
July 2nd. See Seasonals Factor 1. That tells me to be cautious at this point
in time.​
​​​
So for that new bullish break out scenario to continue, we need today that we stay above the 1959.5 support level absolutely. Unless it will become the Saloons Door Trap.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Down Day ?
2) PVT Confimrs Last Uptick : SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Broken Range ?
​3) Some Indicators tells us to be cautious : SP500 Index Bull% Index: Near Overbought Zone ?
​​
​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are in a bullish mode ( since July 1 ).

We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1959.5 support and 1978 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay above 1959.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1959.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.


​​​​IF 1959.5 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1953.5 and 1942 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1978 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the impulse bullish camp; then 1985.5 and 1994 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1903 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1959.5 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1903 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6 but with a huge last down day on July 2 . ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1959 and 1975. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.


​​July 1  Still Range Trade ?


​​Not much have changed since yesterday. A tiny month end selling only...

​​Since we almost tested the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on June 26,
we rebounded slightly on very low volume. That was the tiny correction.

Now, we still can expect a narrow trading range: 1943 to 1963.​​​

​​We are evolving into a new Channel since June 26 with 1943.5 support
and 1959 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

Financials will be key at this point in time for the market ( in terms of
​weighting of the overall market and performance ). Market Sentiment in
Financials are into the overbought territory but need a trigger to change direction...​
( See 2nd factors below )​


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 6, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
​​
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.


​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Financials will be Key: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Overbought ?
​3) Some Indicators got back in the neutral zone: SP600 : Volume A/D: Not Overbought Yet ?



​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are in a range trade mode ( since June 27 ).

We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1943.5 support and 1959 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay into 1943 to 1963 for that scenario to unfold. That 1943.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.


​​​​IF 1943.5 break down,​ then a more severe correction begin; then 1932.5 and 1917 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1963 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the bullish camp; then 1970 and 1976 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1901 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1943.5 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1901 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1943 and 1959. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.

​​June 30  Range Trade + Month End ?


​​Since we almost tested the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on June 26,
we rebounded slightly on very low volume. That was the tiny correction.

Now, we can expect a narrow trading range: 1938 to 1963.​​​

​​We are evolving into a new Channel since June 26 with 1938 support
and 1956 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

But month end effect can put for today some pressure on equities
especially at the end of the trading session 1943?


SP500 Index ​​​​​Month-to-date is +1.9% and IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasusy Bond Fund) Month-to-date
​is -.3%. SP500 Index ​​​​​Quarter-to-date is +4.7% and IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasusy Bond Fund)
​Month-to-date is +2.3%.So we should see some stocks selling to buy bonds today.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 6, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
​​
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.

​​​​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) PVT call for a Range Trade Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Range Trade Phase ?
​3) Some Indicators into the OB Zone: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?



​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a range trade mode ( since June 27 ).

We are evolving into a new uptrend Channel since June 26 with 1938 support and 1956 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay into 1938 to 1963 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.


​​​​IF 1938 break down,​ then a more severe correction begin; then 1930 and 1917 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1963 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the bullish camp; then 1970 and 1976 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1899 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1936 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1899 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 6. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1940 and 1956. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​June 27  Still into the Channel ?


​​We are still evolving into a Channel since June 24 with 1932.5 support
and 1952.5 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

Expect a tiny correction in a slow bleed pattern but with volatility
getting above average in the next few sessions.​

​We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a tiny corrective
​mode. ​​We need to ​stay below 1952.5 now for that scenario to continue.

​​So from now on, 1952.5 becomes resistance and the market will test
1936 MAX 1932.5 at this point in time.

We forgot to follow the trend on the YEN, but was dressing the path for the SP500. Risk taking is still On as Retail participants are getting hotter with Facebook Shares and some IPO. A dangerous game indeed.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 1, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
​​
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the YEN.


​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) PVT call for a Range Trade Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Trading Range ?
​3) The Yen is Back: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a tiny corrective mode ( since June 24 ).

We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1956.5 support and 1978 as resistance. We are evolving into a Channel since June 24 with 1932.5 support and 1952.5 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay below 1952.5 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1952.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1936 and 1932.5 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1932.5 break down,​ then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1952.5 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the bullish camp; then 1960 and 1969.5 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1897 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1936 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1897 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 1. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1936 and 1955. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.


​​​June 26 A New Channel ?


​​We are evolving into a brand new Channel since June 24 with 1934 support
and 1955 as resistance.​ ( See 1st chart below )

Yesterday strong bounced was a surprise to me but still think of a choppy
slow bleed - almost a range trade in the next few sessions.​​​

​We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a tiny corrective
​mode. ​​We need to ​stay below 1955 now for that scenario to continue.

​​So from now on, 1955 becomes resistance and the market will test
1939 MAX 1934 at this point in time.

Market is still full risk on and high beta stocks are in favor but starting to be quite volatile.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 26 til July 5, the seasonalities are for a range trend.
​​
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Bulls are all over that Chart: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
​3) Complacency Still: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?

​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a tiny corrective mode ( since June 24 ).

We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1956.5 support and 1978 as resistance. We are evolving into a brand new Channel since June 24 with 1934 support and 1955 as resistance.​
​​​
​We need to stay below 1955 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1955 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1939 and 1934 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1934 break down,​ then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.

​​​​​​IF 1955 break up on a daily close,​ then back to the bullish camp; then 1960 and 1969 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1895 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1934 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1895 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning for a range trade pattern from June 26 til July 5. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1939 and 1955. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.


​​June 25  Tiny Correction Ahead ?

For the past 2 days I have been warning you of a tiny correction ahead.
Yesterday, we had that confirmation by breaking the 1947 level.

What surprised me was that we made a new high near the opening
( gap up violently ) and trade down as quickly thereafter. The kind
of volatility we did not see for a long time.​​​​​

​We did broke on June 24 the 1947 level and then turn to a corrective mode.
​​We need to ​stay below 1950.5 for that scenario to continue.

​​So from now on, 1950.5 becomes resistance and the market will test
1939 MAX 1932 at this point in time.

Interesting to note that already some defensive sectors ( like the Utilities ) were outperforming the SP500:
That was an early signal of the market shifting to a defensive stance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalitiesare for a bearish trend.
​​
Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years. IPO at record ever...​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Retail Participation Fading: ETF s Volume Indicator : From Overbought Zone ?
​3) Market was in Overbought Zone: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: From Overbought Zone ?


​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a corrective mode ( since June 24 ).

We are not anymore evolving in an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1950.5 support and 1973.5 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1950.5 for that corrective scenario to unfold. That 1950.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the corrective mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1939 and 1932 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1932 break down,​ then a more severe correction begin; then 1925 and 1901 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1892 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1932 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1892 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1879 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1932 and 1950. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average and picking up through the week.

​​June 24 The Fade Have Begun ?

Not much have changed since yesterday in terms of market minding.
​Only technical levels. We are quite near of a pause....
I think we will test the 1947 and break it ; 1944 MAX 1934 targeted.​

​​​We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
​​We need to ​stay above 1947 for that scenario to continue.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
​​
The other aspect is the activity volume so low and the lack of Volatility in
​most markets, not only stocks. ​I expect Volatility to pick Up this week.​​

Market complacency is at level not seen in the past three years. IPO at record ever...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Risk Taking Slowly Fading: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Start Fading ?
​3) Market Confidence at a 3 Year High: SP500 + Russel Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).

We are still evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1947 support and 1969 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1947 for that scenario to unfold. That 1947 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​Next target for bulls are 1963.5, 1969, 1976 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1947 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1944 and 1934 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1889 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1930 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1889 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1875 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1940 and 1957. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.


​​​June 23  Near a Pause ?


​​Last Friday, I must say that the market impressed me getting near the
upp​er line of the resistance line of my channel then at 1959.5.

​We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
​Next target ​for bulls are 1959.5 ( reached this morning ) and 1963.5.​
​We need to ​stay above 1942 for that scenario. ​

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
​​
Now, 1942 becomes support, the market will test the 1963.5 and 1970
​level​​ in the next few sessions.

Even if we must stick to the technical levels to change officially our view, I feel that the market need a pause here or a tiny correction ( Testing the 1942 level ? ). I feel already some market fatigue.​​

The other aspect is the activity volume so low and the lack of Volatility in most markets, not only stocks.
​I expect Volatility to pick Up this week.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Downtrend ?
2) Market Short Term Overbought: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Overbought Zone ?
​3) Expect Volatility to Pick Up: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?


​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).

We are still evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1942 support and 1963.5 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1942 for that scenario to unfold. That 1942 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​Next target for bulls are 1963.5, 1970, 1976 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1942 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1934 and 1926 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1887 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1926 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1887 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1875 and 1851.

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1942 and 1960. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.

​​June 20  Any Follow Through on the FED s Rally ?

It will an interesting trading session. A Summer Friday after an earlier
​FOMC decision​: is there any follow through for that market ?
To really impress me, Bulls need to push today to test the 1959.5 level;
the resistance trendline from the upper channel.​ Am I convinced yet - NO.

We did broke on June 18 the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode.
​Next target ​for bulls are 1959.5 and 1966.​ We need to stay above 1937 for
​that scenario. ​

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend. From June 20 til June 26, the seasonalities
are for a bearish trend.
​​
Now, 1937 becomes support, the market will test the 1959.5 and 1966 ​level​​ in the next few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Retail Stocks and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Risk Taking Very High: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Start Fading ?
​3) Bulls takes that for Comfort: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still Into a Bullish Mode ?
​​​
​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).

We are evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1937 support and 1959.5 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1937 for that scenario to unfold. That 1937 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​Next target for bulls are 1959.5, 1961, 1966 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1937 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1923 and 1885 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1885 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1923 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1885 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1874 and 1851.

​​​So for now, the are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1885. A major support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1923.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 19.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1831 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1944 and 1959. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.
​​
June 19  The FED s Rally ?

When Chair Yellin answered that the stock market was not in a bubble
territory​, the market did continue to spike yesterday after the FOMC release. ​

We did broke the 1934.5 level and then turn to a bullish mode. Next target
​for bulls are 1959 and 1964.​ We need to stay above 1936 for that scenario
​to unfold.​ Many technical indicators do not confirm that new high like the
​PVT​ - some caution is advised.​​

Volume is still a big concern to me. That market can move up or down
without warning ; liquidity is already drying...​

The other quite interesting fact is that SKEW is spiking​​ : that tells me that the participants starting to hedge do not feel comfortable with the SP500 at that level.​

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and then ​on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.

Now, 1936 becomes support, the market will test the 1959 and 1964 ​level​​ in the next few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Financials and the Yen.
​​​
​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Divergence : SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Divergence ?
​3) Hedging a New High on SP500: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?


​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a bullish mode ( since June 18 ).

We are evolving in a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 1932 support and 1955 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1936 for that scenario to unfold. That 1936 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​Next target for bulls are 1955, 1959, 1964 MAX for now.

​​​​IF 1936 break down,​ then a correction begin; then 1919 and 1883 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1883 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1919 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1883 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1859 and 1837.

​​​So for now, the are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1883. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1919.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and ​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1943 and 1955. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.
​​​
June 18  Challenging the Channel ?

We are still evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9 but very near
​testing the resistance trendline at 1934.5. We need a daily close below
​1934.5 to stay into a corrective phase, unless, back to bullish mode.​

I still think we will stay into that channel; the problem is that with a so
​low activity level, the market is very easy to move and we may have a
​false signal​​...

​We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.​​
Volume level are a big concern - E-Mini SP500 Futures lower by 48.7%.
​​
​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and then
​on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.

Now, 1934.5 becomes resistance, the market will test the 1915 ​level​​ in the next few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Internet Stocks and Financials

​​​​​​​​Four factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Market is still on Full Risk Mode: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : A new High ?
​3) Retail Participation is Fading: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?
4) Volume is extremely low: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?

​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ) but challenging seriously the resistance trendline.

We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1910 support and 1934.5 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1934.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1934.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1926, 1915 MAX for now.

​​IF 1915 break down,​ then the severe correction begin; then 1900 and 1880 as targets.

​​​​​IF 1934 break up,​ then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1880 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1915 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1880 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1859 and 1837.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1880. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1915.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and ​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1926 and 1938. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​June 17 Testing the Channel

Take note that the levels are now on the September Contract U4.

We are still evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9 but near
​testing the resistance trendline at 1936. We need a daily close below 1936
to stay into a corrective phase, unless, back to bullish mode.​
Breaking the 1912 level will make bulls capitulate.​

That market is quite resilient; with oil prices at that level, US consumers
will feel the pain on their budget...​​​

We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.​​
Volume level are a big concern.​
​​
​​​​​​​​Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and ​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.

Now, 1936 becomes resistance, the market will test the 1912 ​level​​ in the next few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Financials and Oil.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals near Reversal: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Big Capitalization on the Soft Side: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Still Weakening ?
​3) Financials Testing a Weekly Level: SP500 Financials Weekly: Testing the Support Trendline ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).

We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1912 support and 1936 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1936 for that scenario to unfold. That 1936 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1917, 1912 MAX for now.

​​IF 1912 break down,​ then the severe correction begin; then 1900 and 1877 as targets.

​​​​​IF 1936 break up,​ then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1879 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1912 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1879 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1859 and 1837.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1879. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1912.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and ​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1919 and 1936. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​​​
June 16 Follow the Channel ?

We are evolving into a downtrend channel since June 9.

We are in a slow correction phase with not a lot of momentum.​​
Volume level are a big concern.​
​​
​​​​​We can have a dead cat bounce to MAX 1931 today before resuming
​downtrend. Breaking the 1914 level will make bulls capitulate.​

​​​Seasonals are in a new trend since June 14. A slight trading range and
​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin.

Now, 1938 becomes resistance, the market will test and crack the 1914 ​level​​ in the next few sessions.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will be on the Financials, Oil and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bear Trend ?
2) Market Still Expensive: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
​3) Market Behavior Does Not Reflect Risks: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?

​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).

We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1914 support and 1938 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1938 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and broking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1919, 1914 MAX for now.

​​IF 1914 break down,​ then the severe correction begin; then 1909 and 1877 as targets.

​​​​​IF 1938 break up,​ then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1957 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1877 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1914 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1877 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1859 and 1837.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1877. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1909.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning slightly bearish after June 14 ( a slight trading range ) and ​then on June 20, the real bear seasonals begin as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1914 and 1931. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​June 13  Friday the 13th ?


​​Now we know that we will have a correction in Price and not in Time
​because we did have a daily close below the 1936.5 level yesterday.

​​​We can have a dead cat bounce to MAX 1938 today before resuming
​downtrend. Breaking the 1922 level will make bulls capitulate.​

​​​Seasonals are near reversal, turning bearish on June 14. ​

Now, 1938 becomes resistance, the market will test and crack the 1922
​level​​ in the next two sessions. Geo-political risks rising fast AND oil
prices will impact the broad economy and the stock market.

​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on Oil and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
2) Market Still Expensive: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Overbought Zone ?
​3) Market Behavior Still Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Still Rising ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are in a correction mode ( since June 9 ).

We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1922 support and 1947 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay below 1938 for that scenario to unfold. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and broking that level will cancel the correction mode and will be seen as technical strenght.

​Next target for bears are 1925, 1922 MAX for now.

​​IF 1922 break down,​ then the severe correction begin; then 1913 and 1884 as targets.

​​​​​IF 1938 break up,​ then the correction end and back into the bull mode; then 1947 and 1955 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1884 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1913 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1884 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1866 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1884. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1913.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after June 14 as history suggest til June 24. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1922 and 1938. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​
June 12  Still no Fear ?

Now that the market started a tiny correction / pause, the same question
​arise again. Will we have a correction in Time vs Price. The answer will be
​IF we have a daily close below 1936.5 today.​​

​​​​​​​Interestingly, SKEW Index is rising with the peak in price for the SP500.
Seems some are not totally in their comfort zone at those levels.​

​​​Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til ​June 14. ​Also, my target
​of ​​1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now
​( ​my profit ​stop is still at 1943 today - daily close but already starting to
​trade ​below will mean to me technical weakness ). ​Not that I turn bearish,
​but ​complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical
​indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1943, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold on a daily close.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Big Stocks Technicals: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Weakening ?
2) Players buying Protection: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Rising ?
3) Financials are Short Term Overbought: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Overbought Zone ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).

We are evolving in a new downtrend channel that started on June 9 with 1936.5 support and 1949.5 as resistance. That new channel support level at 1936.5 will give us the answer of the correction in Time vs Price IF broken or not.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1910 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1943 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1943 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.

​​IF 1943 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1910 and 1883 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1883 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1910 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1883 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1866 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1883. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1910.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1935 and 1951. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
​​​
June 11

Still Market Fatigue ?

​​Yesterday I wrote: I think that at this point in time with so many indicators
​into the overbought territory, market feel some fatigue and may pause or
​correct a little.​ But we have seen correction in Time vs Price in the past.
​​
​​​​​Complacency is at the ​highest level I can ​remember this ​year and the
​market is pricing zero risk.​​​​ Last time the VIX was that low was in March
​2013 : We must expect more volatility to come...

​​​Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til ​June 14. ​Also, my target
​of ​​1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now
​( ​my profit ​stop is at 1943 today - daily close but already starting to trade
​below will mean to me technical weakness ). ​Not that I turn bearish, but
​complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators
​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1943, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) The YEN Strikes Back: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) Financials are Short Term Overbought: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Overbought Level ?
3) Retail Players Feel Tired: ETF s Volume Indicator : Fading ?

​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).

We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1843 support and 1970 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1908 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1943 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1943 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.

​​IF 1943 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1908 and 1881 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1881 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1908 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1881 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1866 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1881. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1908.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1935 and 1952. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.

​​June 10  Market Fatigue ?

I think that at this point in time with so many indicators into the overbought
territory, market feel some fatigue and may pause or correct a little.​

But we have seen correction in Time vs Price in the past.
​​
​​We are stillevolving in an uptrend channel that will tell us if the wind
​change.​​I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop ​​now at 1938.

​​​Complacency is at the ​highest level I can ​remember this ​year and the
​market is pricing zero risk.​​​​ Last time the VIX was that low was in March
​2013 : We must expect more volatility to come...

​​​Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til ​June 14. ​Also, my target of ​1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now ( ​my profit ​stop is at 1938 today - daily close ). ​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1938, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) PVT Showing Sign of Fatigue: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Starting to Weaken ?
2) Market Remains Short Term Overbought: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) Total Complacenecy into the Market: ​VIX and SP500: ​No Fear Into That Market ?

​​​
​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).

We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1838 support and 1964 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1905 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1938 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1938 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1955, 1964 MAX for now.

​​IF 1938 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1905 and 1879 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1879 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1905 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1879 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1866 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1879. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1905.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1938 and 1955. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.
​​
June 9  Runaway Train ?

​Market is like a runaway train since since we broke the 1882 level on
​May 21, when we shifted to the break out ​mode from a range trade pattern,
​many technical indicators changed ​to near term overbought condition
​( since May 28 ).

We are evolving in an uptrend channel that will tell us if the wind change.​​

I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop ​​now at 1932.

​​​Complacency is at the ​highest level I can ​remember this ​year and the
​market is pricing zero risk.​​​​ We must expect more volatility to come...

​​​Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til ​June 14. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now ( ​my profit stop is at 1932 today - daily close ). ​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1932, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Internet Stocks and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Expect More Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2)​ Dow Jones Transport Gives All the Ammunition to the Bulls:
​DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New Weekly High ?
3) Market Remains Short Term Overbought: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?

​​
​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).

We are evolving in an uptrend channel that started on May 21 with 1832 support and 1958 as resistance.
​​​
​We need to stay above 1901 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1932 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1932 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1958, 1963 MAX for now.

​​IF 1932 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1901 and 1877 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1877 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1901 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1877 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1866 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1877. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1901.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1932 and 1955. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up through the week.

​​June 6 Tricky NFP ?

​So no pullback, no cut in term of risk pre-NFP, no retest of the 1916 level
​and break out to new highs. That s indeed a resilient market.

I ll continue play it by adjusting my profit trailing stop ​​now at 1929.

Today s NFP consensus at 213k but I will put more emphasis on
Average Hourly Earnings ( expected at 0.1% ) and Average Workweek
( expected at 34.5hrs ).​​​​

​​​Complacency is at the ​highest level I can ​remember this ​year and the
​market is pricing zero risk.​​​​

​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out ​mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed ​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​Seasonals are turning bullish for the market til ​June 14. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now ( ​my profit stop is at 1929 today - daily close ). ​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1929, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bullish Trend ?
2)​ Break Out Finally on PVT: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Finally A PVT Break Out ?
3) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials HVol: HVol at Historic Low ?

​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1897 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1929 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1929 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1948, 1955 MAX for now.

​​IF 1929 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1897 and 1875 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1876 support and 1918 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1875 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1897 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1875 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1858 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1875. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1897.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bullish after June 7 as history suggest til June 14. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1929 and 1945. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.


​​June 5 The NFP Test ?

What will be interesting today is to see if some market participants will
cut some market risks before the Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow ( NFP ).​

We bounced back twice from the 1916 level, a good technical behavior
but the third times for a retest of a level is always critical​. Unless, ​​very little
​have changed for me since May 30, a slow grinding market with low volume​.
​Complacency is at the ​highest level I can ​remember this ​year and the
​market is pricing zero risk.​​​​

​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til ​June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​​defensively from now ( ​my profit stop is still at 1916 today - daily close ). ​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1916, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2)​ Market Still Betting on Risk On: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Still Building Up ?
3) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: High Complacency Level ?

​​
​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1894 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1916 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1916 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1932, 1937 MAX for now.

​​IF 1916 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1894 and 1875 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1875 support and 1916 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1873 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1894 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1872 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1858 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1873. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1894.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1910 and 1927. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.

​​​June 4 Complacency Still ?

Very little have changed for me since month end. Complacency is at the
​highest level I can remember this ​year and the market is pricing zero risk.​​​​

Market start to be unable to make new highs, market fatigue I say...
​​
​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til
​June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​
​defensively from now ( ​my profit stop is at 1916 today - daily close ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1916, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.
​​
​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) PVT Divergence: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : No Break Out Yet ?


​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1891 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1916 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1916 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.

​​IF 1916 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1891 and 1874 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1874 support and 1916 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1878.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1872 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1891 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1872 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1858 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1872. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1891.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1910 and 1924. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.
​​​
June 3  Complacency You Said ?

​Very little have changed for me since yesterday. The only thing worth
​mentioning is that we did tested the crucial 1914 level and rebounded on it.

Part 2 is today. Complacency is at the highest level I can remember this
​year and the market is pricing zero risk.​​​​

​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​defensively from now ( ​my profit stop still at 1914 today ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect again a tiny correction towards 1914, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) No Fear Into that Market: SP500 Financials and VIX : Still at Nirvana Level ?
3) The Yen Could be Back at Play Again: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1889 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1914 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1914 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.

​​IF 1914 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1886 and 1872 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1873 support and 1915 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1870 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1889 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1870 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1858 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1870. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1889.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1910 and 1924. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.

​​June 2  Same Game Plan ?

Very atypical end of the month with no more volatility than usual. On top
of that, volume activities on the E-mini futures continue to get lower
on new highs on the SP500 Index. It will be a concern when the market
​start​​ the correction process. Til then, same game plan but with some
adjustments in technical levels, especially my profit trailing stop.

​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, many technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1914. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market til June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it ​defensively from now ( tightening ​my profit stop to 1914 ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and many technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1914, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Divergence from the NYSE: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
3) Financials Still Strong but Near Overbought: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Stronger Sentiment ?

​​
​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1886 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1914 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1914 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1933, 1939 MAX for now.

​​IF 1914 break down,​ then the correction begin and back into the range mode; then 1886 and 1872 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1872 support and 1914 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1869 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1886 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1869 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1858 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1869. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1886.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1914 and 1926. ​
​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 30  Month End + Tricky Friday ?


​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, some technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1912. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market
til June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it
​defensively from now ( tightening ​my profit stop to 1904 ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1904, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold. Expect a very tricky Friday and end of the month behavior that should bring volatility...​​ Rarely seen were mid term bond ETF ( IEF ) perform as well as stocks ( SP500 Index ) for the past month is indicative of fewer rebalancing into the asset mix this month, a rare event indeed.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Market take too much Risks: High Beta / Low Beta ETFs : Risk Behavior Rising ?
3) Technical Indicators Short Term Overbought: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?


Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1884 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1904 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1904 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1925, 1930 MAX for now.

​​IF 1904 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1884 and 1871 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1871 support and 1912 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1879.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1868 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1884 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1868 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1868. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1884.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1904 and 1920. ​
​Expect volatility to be above average for month end.

​​​​​May 29  From Euphoria to Consolidation Phase ?

Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, some technical indicators changed
​to near term overbought condition ( since May 28 ).
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1911. Seasonals are turning bearish for the market
til June 7. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it
​defensively from now ( tightening ​my profit stop to 1901 ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1901, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.

Expect a very tricky Friday tomorrow and end of the month behavior that should bring volatility...​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Yen.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bearish Trend ?
2) Expect more Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Retail Players Fading: ETF s Volume Indicator : Weakening ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1882 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1901 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1901 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1920, 1924 MAX for now.

​​IF 1901 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1882 and 1870 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1870 support and 1911 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1867 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1867 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1867. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1882.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest til June 7. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1901 and 1916. ​
​Expect volatility to be average but rising for month end.


​​​​​​​May 28  From Euphoria to Consolidation Phase ?


Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, not much have changed except tiny
​adjustments in some technicals levels.
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500 on May 27. Market shifted
​from the low of my channel that started on April 28 to over my resistance
​trendline now at 1910. Seasonals are turning less friendly for the market
as of May 28. ​Also, my target of 1907 was reached on May 27, ​I will play it
​defensively from now ( tightening ​my profit stop to 1899 ).
​Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very ​high and the VIX level and
other technical indicators ​tell us to be cautious at these levels.

All that to expect a tiny correction towards 1899, level that will make the difference in the upcoming scenarios. ​​ That level becomes crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​Seasonals are turning bearish after May 28...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on Financials.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Last Bullish Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
2) PVT does not Confirm the last Break Out: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?
​​3) Financials now Participate into the Rally: SP500 Financials Weekly: My Uptrend Channel ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1880 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1899 will be seen as technical weakness. That 1899 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and rebound from it will be seen as technical strenght and will tell me that new highs are expected.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 was reached on May 27. ​Next target for bulls are 1918, 1922 MAX for now.

​​IF 1899 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1880 and 1865 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1868 support and 1910 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1865 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1865 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1865. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1880.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 28 as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1899 and 1918. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 27  Euphoria Phase ?

​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, and then shifted to the break out
​mode from a range trade pattern, not much have changed except tiny
​adjustments in some technicals levels.
​​
​We entered the Euphoria Phase in the SP500. My target of 1907 almost
reached, I will play it defensively from now ( tightening my profit stop
to 1894 ). Not that I turn bearish, but complacency is very high
and the VIX level tell us to be cautious at these levels.

I think we have one more session before starting a tiny correction towards
the resistance trendline now at​​​​​ 1880 that is crucial for bulls to hold.
​​
​​​​Seasonals are turning bearish after May 28...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on Financials and the Internet Stocks.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Last Bullish Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?
​2) We need Financials to make new highs: SP500 Financials: Back Above the 50 DMA ?
3) Technicals are not that strong for Consumers Stocks: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Bearish ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode ( since May 21 ).
​We need to stay above 1880 for that scenario to unfold but already trading below 1894 will be seen as technical weakness.

My ultimate bull target of 1907 is almost reached. ​Next target for bulls are 1916, 1922 MAX for now.

​​IF 1894 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range mode; then 1880 and 1864 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1867 support and 1907 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1880.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1864 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1880 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1864 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1864. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1878.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1894 and 1907. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​​​​May 23  Tricky Fridays ?


​​​Since we broke the 1882 level on May 21, not much have changed except
tiny adjustments in some technicals levels.
​​
​But I want to remind you that each time we had that kind of set up, a few
​sessions later confirmed a false break out. That s why bulls need to keep
​above the 1881 level absolutely.

​​​​Seasonals are near a bullish reversal on May 24...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on Financials and the Yen.

​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Dow Theory Confirmed: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New High ?
​2) We need Financials to make new highs: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Weakening ?
3) Technicals are not that strong: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode. We need to stay above 1881 for that scenario to unfold.

​Next target for bulls are 1894, 1899, 1907 MAX for now.

​​IF 1881 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range; then 1876 and 1866 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1866 support and 1907 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1881.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1863 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1881 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1863 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1863. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1876.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1881 and 1894. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​
May 22 Broken Range ?

​​The real question here is; do we have a broken range. The answer is yes
because we had a closing yesterday above 1882.

We need today to stay above 1881 to confirm that break out mode.
Then 1892 and MAX 1899 are near term targets for bulls.

But I want to remind you that each time we had that kind of set up, a few
​sessions later confirmed a false break out. That s why bulls need to keep
​above the 1881 level absolutely.

​​​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on Financials and the Yen.


​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Last Bearish Seasonalities for May: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
​2) Market Still Complacent: VIX and SP500: ​No Fear Into That Market ?
3) Technicals are not that strong: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Still Bullish ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are are not anymore in range trade mode. We need to stay above 1881 for that scenario to unfold.

​Next target for bulls are 1892, 1899, MAX for now.

​​IF 1881 break down,​ then false break out and back into the range; then 1875 and 1865 as targets.

​​​​​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1865 support and 1904 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1881.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1881 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1815 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1877 and 1890. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 21 Back to the 20 DMA ?

Guess What? We are Still in that Range defined by the 50 DMA at 1862
and the resistance trendline that started on April 4 at 1882.

In between, we have the 20 DMA at 1875 that should be tested and broken
today, MAX 1882 on that move...​​​​

​The more time we are within that range tells me the, when broken, the
next move will be a very violent one...​

​What is interesting is that resistance trendline and the support trendline
coming from the rising channel that started on April 28 are creating a
​big wedge that will trigger the next big move.

​​​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Russell 2000 and Bonds ( TLT ETF ).

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market Stuck in a Range: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Range Trade Market ?
​2) Russell is Sending a Message: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell = SP500 at 1550 ?
3) Technicals Getting Worst: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Weakening ?
​​

​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are still in range trade mode as long as 1862 and 1882 on a daily close basis hold. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.

Next target for bulls are 1875, the 20 DMA ( IF 1882 broken on a daily close ) then 1889, MAX 1893 for now.

​​IF 1862 break down,​ then 1854 and 1844 as targets.

​​​​The 1875 level broken is in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.​

​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1863 support and 1903 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 til May 24 as history suggest. ​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1812 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1867 and 1882. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 20 The Thin Amber Line ?


​​We are testing the upper side of my range at 1882: a thin amber line as
​shown on the first chart below.​ We re still into that range as long as
we do not have a daily close above the technical level.​

The range, still between the ​​​50 DMA at 1862 and the​​​ resistance trendline
​that started on April 4 at 1882.

So I think today we will see a test of the 20 DMA at 1875 MAX 1872 before
​resuming ​uptrend​​ and challenging again with a close above the 1882, which
​we should not have...​

What is interesting is that resistance trendline and the support trendline
coming from the rising channel that started on April 28 are creating a big wedge.​​​​

​​​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Internet Stocks and the SKEW.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Rising Market Bring Skew in Options: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Spiking ?
​2) Retail Players are Back: ETF s Volume Indicator : Strenghtening ?
3) Emerging Financials Bullish: SP500 Emerging Financials: Resistance Trendline Broken ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

​We are still in range trade mode as long as 1862 and 1882 on a daily close basis hold. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.

Next target for bulls ( IF 1882 broken on a daily close ) are 1889, MAX 1893 for now.

​​IF 1862 break down,​ then 1854 and 1844 as targets.

​​​​The 1875 level broken is in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.​

​​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1862 support and 1902 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1862 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1862 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1862. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1875.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1812 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1872 and 1886. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 19  Call it Still a Range ?


​​Last Friday I wrote:
1861 will act as major support​​​​ and can expect 1874 as a dead cat bounce
target ​but should fade quickly thereafter.​

Last Friday, a lot of options play made the market trade at the 1874 level.
Now back to reality... The range, still between the ​​​50 DMA at 1861and the
​​​resistance trendline that started on April 4 at 1882.

​​​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Downtrend ?
​2) Market Stuck in a Range: SP600 : Volume A/D: Range Trade Behavior ?
3) Volatility will Prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?

​​​​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are still in range trade mode as long as 1861 hold - 1861 to 1882 range expected. The range is getting slowly narrower each day. The May 12, 13 and 14 are for now identified as a false break out. We made a new high that have been rejected and back into the range.

IF 1861 break down,​ then 1854 and 1844 as targets.

​​​​The 1874 level IF broken will be in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market.​

​Next target for bulls ( IF 1874 broken ) are 1876, MAX 1882 for now.

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1861 support and 1901 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1874.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1859 and 1877. ​Expect volatility to be above average.

​​May 16 Tricky Fridays ?


​​Yesterday I wrote:
For today, we encounter that thin amber line ( see 1st chart below ):
​1882 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.​​
And then 1873 and 1861. ​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

Usually, after that kind of move, we should expect a dead cat bounce.
But on a Friday, usually we saw some risk off behavior due to geo-political
uncertainties; that should bring some volatility.

1861 will act as major support​​​​ and can expect 1874 as a dead cat bounce
target ​but should fade quickly thereafter.​

​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Bonds (TLT ETF).

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) The Yen Still at Play: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​2) Market too Complacent: SP500 Financials HVol: Still Rising HVol ?
3) Russell Gave a Warning: Russell 2000, DJ Industrial and SP500: Small Capitalization Still Underperforming ?


Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are back in range trade mode as long as 1861 hold - 1861 to 1882 range expected.
​Unless back towards a break down mode with 1854 and 1844 as targets

​​​​The 1874 level IF broken will be in favor for the bulls to stay in control of that market today.​

​Next target for bulls ( IF 1874 broken ) are 1876, 1882 and 1893...

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1865 support and 1901 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A major resistance is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1874.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1859 and 1876. ​Expect volatility to be above average.


​​​​​​May 15  My Thin Amber Line?

​​Yesterday I wrote:
I think that we need to take a pause, a tiny correction before resuming
​uptrend​​​​. Already breaking 1892 will give us 1886 to 1883 zone.

For today, we encounter that thin amber line ( see 1st chart below ):
​1882 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.​​
And then 1873 and 1861. ​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Bonds (TLT ETF).
The bond market is trying to learn us something here...​


​​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Bearish Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Downtrend ?
​2) Market too Complacent: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) Volume is Still a Concern: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer


​We are still in break out mode as long as 1882 hold. Unless back towards a Range Mode; 1861 to 1882.

​​​​The 1882 level should hold for bulls to stay in control of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1861, then testing the lower part of the support zone.

​Next target for bulls ( IF 1882 hold ) are 1899, 1906 and 1910... A tough call today indeed...

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1864 support and 1900 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1882.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1882 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1873.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1876 and 1890. ​Expect volatility to be average.


​​May 14  Beware of that Candle ?

​​
We had a break out on May 12, a new high made on May 13 but with a
​candle pattern that do not make me confident. Neither a shooting start
or an inverted hammer, but that king of candle at a new high ever
just make me nervous.

I think that we need to take a pause, a tiny correction before resuming
​uptrend​​​​. Already breaking 1892 will give us 1886 to 1883 zone.

1883 must hold, unless it will tell me that we had a false break out.​​
​​Seasonals are bearish til May 24...

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Bearish Seasonalities are Back: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) Divergence in NYSE: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
​3) Market too Complacent: VIX and SP500: ​No Fear Into That Market ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are still in break out mode as long as 1883 hold. I think we need a tiny corection before resuming uptrend; 1892 broken should bring 1886 to 1883 zone.

​​Next target for bulls are 1899, 1906 and 1910...

​​The 1883 level should hold for bulls to stay in control of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1861, then testing the lower part of the support zone.

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1862 support and 1898 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1883.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1861 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1883 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1861 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1861. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1871.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1808 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1883 and 1899. ​Expect volatility to be average.
​​​​

​​May 13 Break Out ?

We had a break out yesterday by breaking the 1884 resistance trendline
​level. We are not ​anymore in a range trade pattern. Now, for bulls to stay
​in control, they ​must keep that market above the 1884 level.

Next target for bulls are 1900, 1904 and 1907...
​​​
​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Emerging Financials. IF EMFN ETF is able to
​close the week above the 24.95 level, we have a break there too.

​​

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market in Break Out mode: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: New High ?
2) Emerging Financials testing major level: SP500 Emerging Financials Near Resistance Trendline ?
​3) Russell Shows Signs of a Reversal: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Russell Near Reversal ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We had a break out yesterday by breaking the 1884 resistance trendline ​level. We are not ​anymore in a range trade pattern. Now, for bulls to stay ​in control, they ​must keep that market above the 1884 level.

​Next target for bulls are 1900, 1904 and 1907...

​​The 1884 level should hold for bulls to stay in contril of that market: IF broken then expect a retest of the 50 DMA at 1860, then testing the lower part of the support zone.

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 28 with 1861 support and 1897 as resistance.
Also, another support trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1860 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls after the 1884 level.

Already starting to trade below the 1860 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support are the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1860. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1867.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1805 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1886 and 1900. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​​​​May 12 Sectors Rotation ?

​​Market should have a grinding phase for today max tomorrow before
​resuming downtrend. Seasonalities are the main factor for that followed
by the usual Monday morning relief of geo-political risks.​
​​
​Many signal of deleveraging and sectors repositioning are obvious.
Russell 2000, Technology and Social Media stocks compare to Utilities
​and Consumer Staples. Portfolio Managers still want to be involve into the
​market but with a lot less risks.​​​

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and Technology Stocks.

​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals will soon turn Bearish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slippery Trend ?
2) Market Still into a Range: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Trading Range Behavior ?
3) Technology Stocks: SP500 Technology Bull% Index: Still Weakening Sentiment ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are still into that range defined by now by 1859 and 1884.
If we break the 1884 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1898 as near term targets.
​​Already breaking the 1867 level should bring a retest of the 50 DMA at 1859, then testing the lower part of that tiny range...

​​We are still into an uptrend channel that started on April 25 with 1867 support and 1894 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1859 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive.​ .

Already starting to trade below the 1859 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1846.

IF we break the 1846 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1846 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1859. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1863.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning bearish after May 12 as history suggest.
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1846 to 1884 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1805 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1867 and 1884. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​​​May 9  Risk Off Fridays ?

History suggest lately that most of the Fridays have been associted with
bearish stance. Geo-political risks still there and market uncertainties
continue to prevail. Guess what? We are still within a range...​​
​​
​After flirting with the upper side of the range yesterday, we will test the
​lower side defined by yesterday s low at 1865 and the 50 DMA at 1858.​

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials.


​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market have still some downside risks: SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Oversold Territory ?
2) Retail Participants Fading: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?
3) Financials are Still struggling: SP500 Financials Weekly: My Downtrend Channel ?


​​​​​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are still into that range defined by now by 1858 and 1884.
Already breaking the 1865 level should bring a retest of the 50 DMA at 1858, then testing the lower part of that tiny range...

​​We are still into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1852 support and 1875 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1884.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1858 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive.​ .

If we break the 1884 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1898 as near term targets.

Already starting to trade below the 1858 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1845.

IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1858. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1860.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning neutral stance for 2 sessions.​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1885 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1858 and 1875. ​Expect volatility to be average.

​​May 8 Resilient Market?


​​Market is quite resilient and still subject to geo-political risks and will
​continue to play the yo-yo style of behavior and will remain trendless.
But one thing we can conclude easily is: still into that range!
​​
​After flirting with the lower side of the range yesterday, we will test the
​higher side defined by the resistance trendline now at 1877 and max
the other resistance trendline at 1885 before resuming downtrend.​

Financials volatility are showing concerns on the market...

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Yen and Financials.

​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials Volatility Shows Market Nervousness: SP500 Financials HVol: Rising HVol ?
2) Risk Takers more Conservative: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk On Behavior Slowly Fading ?
3) Low Volume Bring Illiquidity: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Still Into a Low Volume Phase ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are still into that range defined by now by 1858 and 1885.

​​We are still into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1854 support and 1877 as resistance.
Also, another resistance trendline that started on April 4 is at 1885.​

​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1858 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive.​ .

If we break the 1877 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1885 and 1893 as near term targets.

Already starting to trade below the 1858 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1845.

IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1858. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1860.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning neutral stance for 2 sessions.​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1885 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1868 and 1885. ​Expect volatility to be average.


​​​​​May 7  My 50 DMA ?

​​After flirting with the upper side of the range, we will test the lower
side defined by the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1857.​

That level is crucial for bulls to hold, unless we will not be anymore
into a consolidation channel and the range trade can be in jeopardy.

The Yen is back in Play....​

​​
My Focus will still be on the Yen and Financials.

​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) The Yen is the Key Driver Short Term: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
2) But Complacenecy is Back: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: High Market Confidence ?
3) Technicals Weakening: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Already Weakening ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are now into a downtrend channel that started on May 2 with 1856 support and 1879 as resistance.
Adding the 50 DMA at 1857 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls to keep that mini range trade alive.​ We are still within a range bound market as long as those levels hold.

If we break the 1879 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1885 and 1893 as near term targets.

Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1853 and 1845.

IF we break the 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1845 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1857. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1858.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 2 sessions.​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1845 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1857 and 1872. ​Expect volatility to be average.
​​May 6 Still The Range ?

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Long Term Trend Still Bullish: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still into a Bullish Mode ?
2) But Short Term Complacenecy is Back: VIX and SP500: ​Still at Complacency Level ?
3) Sentiment on Financials Improving: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Bottoming Out ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Today I expect the flirt with 1885 resistance trendline that started on April 4 ( see chart below - amber line ) before resuming downtrend. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1864 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at ​1857 and on the resistance side, that trendline at 1885.

If we break the 1885 level on a daily close, then we re getting out of the range and can expect 1893 and 1902 as near term targets.

Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1853 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1844 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1857. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 2 sessions.​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1844 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1871 and 1886. ​Expect volatility to be average.


​​​​​May 5 The Range Bound Market

​​ Seasonalities are now turning bearish for the next 3 days of this week.

Last Friday, we tested the upper side of my range ( which was 1882 to
​1888; it did trade 1886 ) before resuming downtrend. Now, it s time
to go testing the 20 and 50 DMA.​

​​I think still that we are within a huge range trade and the market
will trade in a choppy manner, wihout real conviction : on one side, main
​support are the 20 DMA at ​1857 and on the resistance side, the previous
​highs at 1886.

Some Technical Indicators are showing sign of weakness like the Price Volume Trend.

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the US and Foreign Financials .

​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Bearish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Downtrend ?
2) SP500 : Price Volume Trend-No Strenght There: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Still in Consolidation Phase ?
3) Weakening Technicals: The Oil / Gold Ratio and SP500: a Bearish Mix ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Today I expect the break of the 1866 support and potentially testing the 20 DMA at 1857 in the next few sessions. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1866 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at ​1857 and on the resistance side, the previous high at 1886.

To have another bearish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1866 level now.
​IF so, then we can have in mind 1857 as target for the next few sessions ...
​​
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1853 and 1844.

IF we break the 1844 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1824 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1844 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1855. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bearish stance for 3 sessions.​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1843 to 1886 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1796 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1857 and 1877. ​Expect volatility to be above average.
​​​
​​May 2 Risk Off Friday ?


​​​​​​​​​​Seasonalities are turning bullish for the last push for the month of May.

But also lately, Friday have been associated with risk off behavior. On top
​of that, we have the Non Farm Payroll Today, a funny Molotov Cocktail.

I think still that we are within a huge range trade and the market
will trade in a choppy manner, wihout real conviction : on one side, main
​support are the 20 DMA at ​1857 and on the resistance side, the previous
​highs at 1882 and 1888.

Some Technical Indicators are showing sign of weakness like the NYSE New Highs / New Lows.

On top of that, Gold and VIX are telling us to expect more volatility ahead.​​

​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and Internet Stocks.

​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Bullish Seasonalities: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last Short Term Bullish Impulse ?
2) Expect Volatility to Rise: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Weakening Technicals: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Weakening ?


​​​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Today I expect a kind of hit and run like yesterday. Testing the upper zone 1883 MAX 1888 and fading towards again the Mighty 1871 support level. We are still within a range bound market: on one side, supports are the trendline that started on March 17 at 1866 ( minor short term support ) and the 20 DMA at ​1857 and on the resistance side, the previous high at 1882.5, 1887.5 and finally 1892.5.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1883 level now.
​IF so, then we can have in mind 1893 and max 1898 as targets for the next few sessions ...
​​
Already starting to trade below the 1857 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.​​ Targets then at 1854 and 1841.

IF we break the 1854 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1812 in the next few sessions.

​​​So for now, the support trendline that started on March 17 ( see second chart below ) at 1843 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1853. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1857.

​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a last bullish impulse stance til May 3rd​​
​See 5th chart below.

​I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1843 to 1888 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1796 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...
​​
​​​And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

​​​The market should trade today between ​​1871 and 1888. ​Expect volatility to be average.