FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
DAILY TECHNICALS

July 6
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at
TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Starting July 7, New Pages Links

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​NFP Day ( Non Farm Payrolls ) today with an
​expectation of +230k. But the main focus must be on Average Hourly
​Earnings (M/M%) expected at+0.2% as the FED will be more sensitive
​to price than job creation unless a huge number...

With no price pressure on the AHE, FED in no hurry to hikes rates..
​​
​​​​My focus is still towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2070.
​A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2036.​5.

The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA and rebound... We did it already on July 6...

IF ever we do close below the 20 DMA, then we open the door ​​to test the next Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1988.5.

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2086.5...

Financials (XLF ETF) will be a must follow today as it will lead the market...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 6.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.

Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?


​​
​​
​​
Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2036.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2095.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2034 to 2063
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​2 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ :
SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?


​Back to the technical levels now.       
​                                                                                               
Disclaimer

We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below  2070 on a daily close.

We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2045 as suport and 2080.5 as resistance.



​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2115.5.


​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2070.

We have a​​Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1988.5.

​We need to stay below 2081 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2086.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 9.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​
​​​The market should trade today between ​​2034 and 2063.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

























​SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily U5 - Greek Tragedy ?   - PREMIUM USERS
​ ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily Z4 - Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ?  $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500


July 6 Greek Tragedy ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

Starting July 7, New Pages Links

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​NFP Day ( Non Farm Payrolls ) today with an
​expectation of +230k. But the main focus must be on Average Hourly
​Earnings (M/M%) expected at+0.2% as the FED will be more sensitive
​to price than job creation unless a huge number...
With no price pressure on the AHE, FED in no hurry to hikes rates..
​​
​​​​My focus is still towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2070.
​A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2036.​5.

The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA and rebound... We did it already on July 6...

IF ever we do close below the 20 DMA, then we open the door ​​to test the next Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1988.5.

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2086.5...

Financials (XLF ETF) will be a must follow today as it will lead the market...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 6.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.

Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2036.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2095.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2034 to 2063
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​2 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2070 on a daily close.

We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2045 as suport and 2080.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2115.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2070.

We have a​​Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1988.5.

​We need to stay below 2081 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2086.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 9.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2034 and 2063.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​July 2 NFP Day ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​We did have early in the trading session the dead cat
​bounce, a tad weaker than expected with the high at 2069 only. Market
​volatility will prevail. Financials (XLF ETF) is still a must follow as it lead
​the market...We may have seasonals start to kick with a Grind Pattern Trend...​​

NFP Day ( Non Farm Payrolls ) today with an expectation of +230k. But the main focus must be on Average Hourly Earnings (M/M%) expected at+0.2% as the FED will be more sensitive to price than job creation unless a huge number...

FED MACRO LEVELS:
Support: 2054.5 and 2045 Resistance: 2088.5 and 2095​​
​​
​​​​My focus is still towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2069.
On July 1, it was the first day with a closing above it.​ Good Technical sign indeed...
​A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2035.​7.

The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA and rebound...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2081 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2088 MAX 2095...


​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 6.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 20455 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2095.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2063 to 2085
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​2 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2082 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2045 as suport and 2081 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on June 29 a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2045.5 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 26 a new downtrend channel that started on June 24 with 2086 as suport and 2107 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2116.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2069

​We need to stay below 2081 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2081 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2088 MAX 2095...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2095 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 6.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2063 and 2085.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​July 1 Resistance Trendline ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Month End/Quarter: Since th beginning of the month,
​the SP500 Index Performance have been -2.36% compare to the iShares
​Bonds Funds ETF IEF at -1.36%. All that to say that we should see some
​asset mix rebalancing, selling bonds and buying stocks.
A dead cat bounce today is expected towards 2074.5 to MAX 2081 and fade...

​​​​We did have early in the trading session the dead cat bounce, a tad weaker than expected with the high at 2069 only. Market volatility will prevail. Financials (XLF ETF) is still a must follow as it lead the market...
We may have seasonals start to kick with a Grind Pattern Trend...​​

​​My focus is still towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2069.
Already to consecutive day with a closing below it.​
A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2035.​7.

The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA and rebound...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2082 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2095...


​​
​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 6.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2045.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2095.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2055 to 2082
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​2 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?



​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2082 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2045.5 as suport and 2082 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on June 29 a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2045.5 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 26 a new downtrend channel that started on June 24 with 2086 as suport and 2107 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2116.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2069

​We need to stay below 2082 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2082 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2095...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2095 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 6.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2055 and 2082.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

June 30 Month End/Quarter ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Because the XLF, XLI and DJ Transport lead the way
​down on June 25, it will become a must follow today to feel the market.​
​​Those will continue to be a must follow for me today...
​​So we did finally have some Grexit impact into the market, only a portion
​of it has only EU had said officially no more to Grece. IMF and ECB still there. Volatility just beginning.
We did reached the low of May 6 of 2054, almost the low of May 7 at 2049.5. So we almost completed the dead cat bounce in the overnight session towards 2079.5 MAX 2085 and fade...

Month End/Quarter: Since th beginning of the month, the SP500 Index Performance have been -2.36% compare to the iShares Bonds Funds ETF IEF at -1.36%. All that to say that we should see some asset mix rebalancing, selling bonds and buying stocks.

A dead cat bounce today is expected towards 2074.5 to MAX 2081 and fade...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2096 MAX 2113.5...

My focus now shift towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2068.5
A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2035.​
​​
​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 1.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Financials is still amust follow as it lead the market...​

Bonds starting to have an impact on equities as the ratio of the Mighty SP500 ETF IVV compare to the TLT ETF reached the highest level since 2007.

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?

​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2068 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2096.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2050 to 2075
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Highest Ever ?
4) Weaker Technicals: ​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Rising ?
5) A Must Follow: SP500 Financials (XLF) : Broken Rising Wedge ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2087.5 on a daily close.

​​We broke on June 29 a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2045.5 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 26 a new downtrend channel that started on June 24 with 2086 as suport and 2107 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 25 a downtrend channel that started on June 22 with 2099.5 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 24 an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2121.5 as suport and 2149.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2117.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2068.5

​We need to stay below 2093.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2096 MAX 2113.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2096 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2096 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 1.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2050 and 2075.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
June 29 Half Grexit ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​So in fact yesterday was the beginning of a Perfect Storm:
1) Breaking the 50 DMA at 2096​
2) ​Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) lead the way down
3) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern that started on May 29
and made a new low on June 25​.
So breaking the 50 DMA confirm the down wave count for me...
Because the XLF, XLI and DJ Transport lead the way down on June 25, it will become a must follow today to feel the market.​

​​Those will continue to be a must follow for me today...

​​So we did finally have some Grexit impact into the market, only a portion of it has only EU had said officially no more to Grece. IMF and ECB still there. Volatility just beginning.

We did reached the low of May 6 of 2054, almost the low of May 7 at 2049.5. So we almost completed the dead cat bounce in the overnight session towards 2079.5 MAX 2085 and fade...

​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2093.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2101 MAX 2115.5...

My focus now shift towards a ​​Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2068.
A daily close below that will open the door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2034.5.​
​​
​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 1.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Bonds starting to have an impact on equities as the ratio of the Mighty SP500 ETF IVV compare to the TLT ETF reached the highest level since 2007.

But the most interesting factor is that taking the ratio of the Bullish Percentage Index ​of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index, we have that ratio near the high of the past 5 years; zone associated with market turmoil.
A liquidity concern ?

​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2068 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2096.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2054 to 2079
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Highest Ever ?
4) Weaker Technicals: ​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Rising ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2093.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2045.5 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 26 a new downtrend channel that started on June 24 with 2086 as suport and 2107 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 25 a downtrend channel that started on June 22 with 2099.5 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 24 an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2121.5 as suport and 2149.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2117.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2068.

​We need to stay below 2093.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2093.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2101 MAX 2115.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2096 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2096 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 1.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2054 and 2079.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
June 26 Broken 50 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​I will follow my new downtrend channel for now -
​2099.5 support and 2118 resistance for today. Financials were the leader
​into the weakness yesterday. I ll keep an eye on them...​​ XLF ETF
Also, Industrials started to get weaker, below the 200 DMA. another
​must follow for me...​​​Next step will be to break the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2096 to confirm the new down wave...
​​
So in fact yesterday was the beginning of a Perfect Strorm:
1) Breaking the 50 DMA at 2096​
2) ​Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) lead the way down
3) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern that started on May 29
and made a new low on June 25​.

So breaking the 50 DMA confirm the down wave count for me...
Because the XLF, XLI and DJ Transport lead the way down on June 25, it will become a must follow today to feel the market.​

​​I do not exclude​​ a dead cat bounce to MAX 2107 and fade...
​​
​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 1.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2107 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2116 MAX 2126.5...


Technicals continue to deteriorate as the % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA continue to make lower Highs since November 2014 even if SP500 makes painfully new highs...

Industrials (XLI ETF ) started to get weaker and got below the 200 DMA...​​
​​​​
The SKEW Index is another factor showing the more complacent market since mid-October 2013.


​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2096 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2086 to 2107
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?
4) Weak Industrials: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since May 2013 ?
5) Weaker Technicals: ​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Failed to Break Out ?

​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2107 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 24 with 2086 as suport and 2107 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 25 a downtrend channel that started on June 22 with 2099.5 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 24 an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2121.5 as suport and 2149.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2117.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2067.

​We need to stay below 2107 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2107 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2116 MAX 2126.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2096 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2096 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 1.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2086 and 2107.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
June 25 Follow the Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​Not muh have changed for me in the past trading
​sessions but:​ We have ​been testing that technical level (2118.5) and unable
​to stay ​over it on a daily close basis...​ Market Fatigue... The fact that today
​we did open below the uptrend channel makes me ​even more cautious on
​the market.Also Financials failed to stay over 25.20, another cautious sign to me...​

I will follow my new downtrend channel for now - 2099.5 support and 2118 resistance for today.

Financials were the leader into the weakness yesterday. I ll keep an eye on them...​​ XLF ETF
Also, Industrials started to get weaker, below the 200 DMA. another must follow for me...​

​​Next step will be to break the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2096 to confirm the new down wave...
​​

​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we got back within an old uptrend channel over 2090 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we got out finally of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ over 2100
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport broke back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern and the 20 DMA on June 24.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 1.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2080

​​​Only a daily close above 2118 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2126.5 MAX 2135...


Technicals continue to deteriorate as the % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA continue to make lower Highs since November 2014 even if SP500 makes painfully new highs...

Industrials (XLI ETF ) started to get weaker and got below the 200 DMA...​​
​​​​
The SKEW Index is another factor showing the more complacent market since mid-October 2013.


​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​1) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​2) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​3) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​4) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​5) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​6) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2096 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2096 to 2114
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?
4) Weak Industrials: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since May 2013 ?
5) Weaker Technicals: ​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Failed to Break Out ?

​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2118 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 22 with 2099.5 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 24 an uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2121.5 as suport and 2149.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2118.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2066.

​We need to stay below 2118 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2080

​​​Only a daily close above 2118 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2126.5 MAX 2135...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2096 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2096 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 1.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2096 and 2114.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

June 24 Market Fatigue ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2093.5 level on June 18, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​We are in the process of testing the Resistance
​Trendline that started back on May 19 now at 2118.5.

Not muh have changed for me in the past trading sessions but:​ We have
​been testing that technical level and unable to stay over it on a daily close basis...​ Market Fatigue...
The fact that today we did open below the uptrend channel makes me even more cautious on the market.
Also Financials failed to stay over 25.20, another cautious sign to me...​

​​​​At this point ONLY a daily close above 2118.5 will gives us ​another Bull Impulse towards 2127 MAX 2135 for now...

​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We are still within a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we got back within an old uptrend channel over 2090 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we got out finally of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ over 2100
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport broke the resistance of a Falling Wedge Pattern. See Links Below
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 24.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2127...

Last Friday, market puke down in the last few minutes, I ll keep a Bullish Biais
​( Low Convictions still as long as Greek Tragedy not resolve )

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2095.5 MAX 2082
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The SKEW Index is another factor showing the more complacent market since mid-October 2013.

​​​​​​A Macro Bullish Signal was given by the McClellan Summation Index but The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on February 2015 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is on a decline - SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?


​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​2) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​3) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​4) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​5) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
6) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​7) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​8) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9

​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2095.5 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2103 to 2119
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking : SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
5) Complacent Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?

​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 18 ) as long as we stay above 2103 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2121.5 as suport and 2149.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2118.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2066.

​We need to stay above 2111 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2111 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2095.5 MAX 2082

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2095.5 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 24.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2103 and 2119.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​June 23   Test the Resistance Trendline ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2093.5 level on June 18, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over
​yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a
​break out....​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​At this point ONLY a daily close above 2118.5 will gives us
​another Bull Impulse towards 2124.5 MAX 2131 for now...

We are in the process of testing the Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 now at 2118.5.

​​At this point ONLY a daily close above 2118.5 will gives us ​another Bull Impulse towards 2124.5 MAX 2131 for now...

​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We are still within a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we got back within an old uptrend channel over 2090 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we got out finally of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ over 2100
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport broke the resistance of a Falling Wedge Pattern. See Links Below
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 24.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2127...

Last Friday, market puke down in the last few minutes, I ll keep a Bullish Biais
​( Low Convictions still as long as Greek Tragedy not resolve )

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2095 MAX 2082
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​A Macro Bullish Signal mwas given by the McClellan Summation Index but The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on February 2015 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is on a decline - SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?


​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​2) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​3) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​4) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​5) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
6) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​7) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​8) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9

​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2095 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2107 to 2122
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking : SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 18 ) as long as we stay above 2103 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2111 as suport and 2140 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2118.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2065.5.

​We need to stay above 2111 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2111 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2095 MAX 2082

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2095 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 24.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2107 and 2122.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 22 Greek Risks Still On ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2093.5 level on June 18, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​Well yesterday high to low was 37.25 points - a rare
​kind of move made on a Greek Headline...​​Conviction is still low as
​Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already
​consider that move as a break out....We almost reached within a day the
​2113.5 to MAX 2126 ultimate target for me on a short term basis...

Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already ​consider that move as a break out....

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​At this point ONLY a daily close above 2118.5 will gives us another Bull Impulse towards 2124.5 MAX 2131 for now...

​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We are still within a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2103 Support and 2131 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we got back within an old uptrend channel over 2090 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we got out finally of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ over 2100
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport broke the resistance of a Falling Wedge Pattern. See Links Below
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.14 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.14 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 24.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2124.5...

Last Friday, market puke down in the last few minutes, I ll keep a Bullish Biais
​( Low Convictions still as long as Greek Tragedy not resolve )

​​​​Only a daily close below 2103 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2094.5 MAX 2082
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​Risk Taking Behavior is on a decline - SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?


​​
​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​2) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​3) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​4) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​5) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
6) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​7) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​8) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9

​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094.5 and next big resistance is the high everat 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2103 to 2120
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: DJ Transport: Falling Wedge ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?
5) Risk Taking : SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 18 ) as long as we stay above 2103 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2103 as suport and 2131 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2118.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2065.

​We need to stay above 2103 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118.5 MAX 2124.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2103 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2094.5 MAX 2082

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 24.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2103 and 2120.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
​​June 19 Greek Hopes ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2093.5 level on June 18, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​We are now getting into the Battle of the 50 DMA at
​2093.5. We did get over yesterday but unable to close above....​
​​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above
​2093.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​IF so we may consider
​2113.5 target to MAX 2126.5

Well yesterday high to low was 37.25 points - a rare kind of move made on a Greek Headline...
​​Conviction is still low as Negociations are not over yet even if some market paticipants already consider that move as a break out....

We almost reached within a day the 2113.5 to MAX 2126 ultimate target for me on a short term basis...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) On a weekly basis​ we got back within an old uptrend channel over 2090
2) On a weekly basis, we got out finally of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ over 2100
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​3) The Dow Jones Transport is testing the resistance of a Falling Wedge Pattern. See Links Below
​​4) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) broke out at 25.14 was another strong sign. Need a Daily close above 25.14 to keep that Bull impulse.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19, then a correction phase til June 24.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2113.5 MAX 2126.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2100 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092.5 MAX 2082
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​2) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​3) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​4) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​5) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
6) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​7) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​8) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094 and next big resistance is the high everat 2126.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2105 to 2121
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: DJ Transport: Falling Wedge ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 18 ) as long as we stay above 2100 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 16 with 2092.5 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on June 18 an old downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2053.5 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 17 a downtrend channel that started on June 11 with 2065.5 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2064.5.

​We need to stay above 2100 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 2093.5 ( it did on June 18 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2113.5 MAX 2126.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2100 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092.5 MAX 2082

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2094 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2037 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2105 and 2121.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​June 18  Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on June 12, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ We did test and rebound to close above the support
​trendline that shows market resilience; ​Next challenge like it did on
​June 11, test the upper resistance of the downtrend channel now at 2102.5.​

​​​​We are now getting into the Battle of the 50 DMA at 2093.5.
We did get over yesterday but unable to close above....​

​​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2093.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2113.5 target to MAX 2126

Conviction is low as we have all those Greek Headlines...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2049.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2093.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2101 MAX 2113.5...
​​​

The Dow Jones Transport is into a Falling Wedge Pattern - a must Follow as the Financials. _ See Links Below

​​Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) failed break out at 25.14 was another weak sign.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse.
​​


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​​​1) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​2) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​3) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​4) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
5) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​6) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​7) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2075 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2093.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2082 to 2101
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: DJ Transport: Falling Wedge ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?




​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 10 ) as long as we stay below 2093.5 on a daily close.

​​We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2053.5 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 17 a downtrend channel that started on June 11 with 2065.5 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2094 as suport and 2123 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2075.

​We need to stay below 2093.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.


Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2049.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2093.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2101 MAX 2113.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2093.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2036 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2082 and 2101.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​June 17  Fed and Greece ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on June 12, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Also we are Testing a ​​Major Support Trendline that
​started back on ​April 1 2015 at 2073.5. IF we break that then we open
​the door to 2049.5 MAX 2036....

We did test and rebound to close above the support trendline that shows market resilience;
​Next challenge like it did on June 11, test the upper resistance of the downtrend channel now at 2102.5.​

​​​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2090.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2113.5 target to MAX 2126

Conviction is low as we have all those Greek Headlines...​​ The Fed will add to that today...

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2049.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2090.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2100 MAX 2102.5...
​​​
We broke the Momentum Trend as the SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline broke its Support Trendline.
See Link Below.​

​​Bullish Sentiment continue a lower trend since the end of April and did not match the new high on SP500 futures on MAy 19 - a huge divergence - See Link Below.

Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) failed break out at 25.14 was another weak sign.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse.
​​


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​​​1) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​2) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​3) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​4) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
5) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​6) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​7) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2074 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2092.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2085 to 2099
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Divergence ?
4) Trend: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Broken Momentum ?



​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 10 ) as long as we stay below 2090.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 11 with 2065.5 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2054.5 as suport and 2102.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2094 as suport and 2123 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2074.

​We need to stay below 2090.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.


Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2073.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2090.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2100 MAX 2102.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2092.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2036 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2085 and 2099.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 16 September Contract U5 Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on June 12, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Another false hope for Bulls that we did not break the
​resistance of the ​downtrend channel and failed to stay above the 50 DMA -
​a quite weak tech set up indeed...

Also we are Testing a ​​Major Support Trendline that started back on
​April 1 2015 at 2073.5. IF we break that then we open the door to 2049.5 MAX 2036....

​​​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2090.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2100 target to MAX 2103.5

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2049.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2090.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2100 MAX 2103.5...
​​​
We broke the Momentum Trend as the SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline broke its Support Trendline.
See Link Below.​

​​Bullish Sentiment continue a lower trend since the end of April and did not match the new high on SP500 futures on MAy 19 - a huge divergence - See Link Below.

Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) failed break out at 25.14 was another weak sign.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse.
​​


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​​​1) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​2) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​3) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​4) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
5) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​6) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​7) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2055.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2092.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2061 to 2075
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Divergence ?
4) Trend: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Broken Momentum ?



​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 10 ) as long as we stay below 2090.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 11 with 2071 as suport and 2090.5 as resistance.

​​We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2055.5 as suport and 2103.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2094 as suport and 2123 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2073.5.

​We need to stay below 2090.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.


Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2073.5 MAX 2036
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2090.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2100 MAX 2103.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2036 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2061 and 2075.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​June 15 September Contract U5 Dead Cat Bounce it was ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on June 12, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​I still have that idea in mind that IF we close today
​below the 50 DMA now at 2092, it was only a dead cat bounce and
​back to the trend of the downward channel.

Another false hope for Bulls that we did not break the resistance of the
​downtrend channel and failed to stay above the 50 DMA - a quite weak tech set up indeed...

Also we are now near a ​​Major Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2072.
IF we break that then we open the door to 2050 MAX 2036....

​​​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2105 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2113 target to MAX 2126.5

Take note that we failed on June 11 to close above the 20 DMA at 2102.5....​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2083.5 MAX 2072
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2096 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2102 MAX 2104...
​​​
Bullish Sentiment continue a lower trend since the end of April and did not match the new high on SP500 futures on MAy 19 - a huge divergence - See Link Below.

Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) failed break out at 25.14 was another weak sign.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse.
​​


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​​​1) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​2) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​3) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​4) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
5) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​6) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​7) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Major Support Trendline at 2072 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2092.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2070 to 2083
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Divergence ?



​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 10 ) as long as we stay below 2096 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 11 with 2076.5 as suport and 2096 as resistance.

​​We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2074 as suport and 2105 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 12 a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2094 as suport and 2123 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2072.

​We need to stay above 2092 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.


Only a daily close below 2092 , ( it did on June 12 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2083.5 MAX 2072
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2096 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2102 MAX 2104...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2036 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2070 and 2083.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 12 Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​​June 12 Switching to September Contract U5
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2080.5 level on June 10, triggering the Bull Stance.


​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​Well, we had already yesterday began the reversal to a
​Bullish Stance when the Greek Headlines hit the tape and propulsed to
​new highs again. For me to be a real Bull wave, I need that we stay over
​the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2090 on a daily close.
​Failing to do so will confirm a dead cat bounce only technical pattern and back to the coal mine...

I still have that idea in mind that IF we close today below the 50 DMA now at 2092, it was only a dead cat bounce and back to the tren of the downward channel.

​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2106.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2123 target to MAX 2126.5

Take note that we failed yesterday to close above the 20 DMA at 2102.5....​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2092 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2083.5 MAX 2072
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2080.5 ( it did on June 10 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2102.5 MAX 2106.5...
​​​
I will follow the Financials (XLF ETF) as it was the strongest sector that gave the Mighty SP500 that reversal.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse. It did traded as high as 25.20 and closes at 25.15 on June 11 - Not a strong break out for me especially with a hanging man pattern at the top... See Link Below.
​​
Another sign of weak technicals is the Prive Volume Trend (PVT) that keep falling - See Link Below.

​​Another factor that should add to the volatility is because of the NFP last Friday a lot stronger than anticipated will put pressure on interest rates and a bid to the US Dollar - See Link Below.

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​2) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​3) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
4) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​5) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​6) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2106.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2092 to 2106
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sensitivity: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 10 ) as long as we stay above 2092 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2094 as suport and 2123 as resistance.

We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2075.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on June 10 a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2068 as suport and 2099 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2072.

​We need to stay above 2092 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2092 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2083.5 MAX 2072
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2080.5 ( it did on June 10 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2102.5 MAX 2106.5...
​​The next Bullish Impulse will occur IF we have a daily close above 2106.5 for that scenario to unfold...​​
IF so we may consider 2123 target to MAX 2126.5

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2092 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2036 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2092 and 2106.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​June 11 Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2088.5 level on June 10, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​We did test the ​​Major Support Trendline on June 9
​then at 2077 quite ​violently ( traded as low as 2068.75 ) and rebounded
​strongly to closeabove 2077. That tells me that we could be near a
​reversal from here.​ Todays level is 2078 on that Support.

Well, we had already yesterday began the reversal to a Bullish Stance when the Greek Headlines hit the tape and propulsed to new highs again. For me to be a real Bull wave, I need that we stay over the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2098.5 on a daily close. Failing to do so will confirm a dead cat bounce only technical pattern and back to the coal mine...

The next Bullish Impulse we will have But need a daily close above 2117 for that scenario to unfold...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Only a daily close below 2091 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079 MAX 2064
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2088.5 ( it did on June 10 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2109 MAX 2117...
​​​
I will follow the Financials (XLF ETF) as it was the strongest sector that gave the Mighty SP500 that reversal.
Need a Daily close above 25.14 for another Bull impulse. See Link Below.
​​
Another sign of weak technicals is the Prive Volume Trend (PVT) that keep falling - See Link Below.

​​Another factor that should add to the volatility is because of the NFP last Friday a lot stronger than anticipated will put pressure on interest rates and a bid to the US Dollar - See Link Below.

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​2) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​3) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
4) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​5) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​6) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2098.5 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2117.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2096 to 2110
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sensitivity: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since June 1- ) as long as we stay below 2091 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on June 9 with 2091 as suport and 2119 as resistance.

We are back within an old downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2088 as suport and 2117 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on June 10 a downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2068 as suport and 2099 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2079.

​We need to stay above 2091 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2091 , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079 MAX 2064
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2088.5 ( it did on June 10 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2109 MAX 2117...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2098.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2098.5 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2044 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2096 and 2110.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 10 Tested Major Support Trendline ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​The level today for the Major Support Trendline is 2077.
​IF ever we break that, 2044 the next target...

We did test the ​​Major Support Trendline on June 9 then at 2077 quite
​violently ( traded as low as 2068.75 ) and rebounded strongly to close
above 2077. That tells me that we could be near a reversal from here.​ Todays level is 2078 on that Support.

​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2088.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2109 MAX 2117...
​​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061 MAX 2044

Another sign of weak technicals is the Prive Volume Trend (PVT) that keep falling - See Link Below.

​​Another factor that should add to the volatility is because of the NFP last Friday a lot stronger than anticipated will put pressure on interest rates and a bid to the US Dollar - See Link Below.

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​2) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
3) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​4) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​5) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2078 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2088.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2093
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: A Volatility Divergence for SP500 ? The Sum of All Fears ?
4) Weak Technicals: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Wedge ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2088.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2068 as suport and 2099 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 8 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2090 as suport and 2119 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2078.

​We need to stay below 2088.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2088.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2109 MAX 2117...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061 MAX 2044

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2097 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls. (It did on June 5 )

Already starting to trade below the 2097 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2044 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2093.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 9 Testing Major Support Trendline ?
​​
​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​In fact, we did broke on June 5 the 50 DMA opening
​the door for a slippage ​towards 2082.5 to MAX 2076. That 2076 level is the
​Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015.
​IF ever we break that, 2044 the next target...

The level today for the Major Support Trendline is 2077.
​IF ever we break that, 2044 the next target...

​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2089 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2104 MAX 2118...
​​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061 MAX 2044

Another sign of weak technicals is the Prive Volume Trend (PVT) that keep falling - See Link Below.

​​Another factor that should add to the volatility is because of the NFP last Friday a lot stronger than anticipated will put pressure on interest rates and a bid to the US Dollar - See Link Below.

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​2) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
3) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​4) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​5) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2077 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2089
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2067 to 2082
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: A Volatility Divergence for SP500 ? The Sum of All Fears ?
4) Weak Technicals: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Wedge ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2089 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 3 with 2072 as suport and 2104 as resistance.

​​We broke on June 8 a downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2090 as suport and 2119 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2077.

​We need to stay below 2089 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2089 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2104 MAX 2115...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061 MAX 2044

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.(It did on June 5 )

Already starting to trade below the 2095.5 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2044 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2067 and 2082.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 8 ​​Broken 50 DMA ?
We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​We broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2111.5
​but for me the 50 DMA have a lot more significance IF we break it...​​We
​tested the 50 DMA yesterday - todays level is 2095. Closing below will
​bring the test of the rising support trendline at 2075.

In fact, we did broke on June 5 the 50 DMA opening the door for a slippage
​towards 2082.5 to MAX 2076. That 2076 level is the Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015.
​IF ever we break that, 2044 the next target...

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til June 19.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2108 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2119 MAX 2134...

​​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2076

Another factor that should add to the volatility is because of the NFP last Friday a lot stronger than anticipated will put pressure on interest rates and a bid to the US Dollar - See Link Below.

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​2) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
3) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​4) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​5) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9


​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2076 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2108
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2086 to 2108
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: A Volatility Divergence for SP500 ? The Sum of All Fears ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2108 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2090 as suport and 2119 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Support Trendline that started back on April 1 2015 at 2076.

​We need to stay below 2108 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2108 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2119 MAX 2134...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2076

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.(It did on June 5 )

Already starting to trade below the 2095 level will mean to me technical weaknesses and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til June 19.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2044 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2086 and 2108.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 5 NFP and USD ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The only sector that seems to hold this market is the
​Financial Sector. As rates rise, it bring more margin power for Banks but
​start to be a drag on others sectors as the Ratio of the Mighty SP500
​ETF IVV compare to the TLT ETF reached near the highest level since
​2007 - see Link Below.

​​We broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2111.5 but for me the 50 DMA have a lot more significance IF we break it...​​We tested the 50 DMA yesterday - todays level is 2095. Closing below will bring the test of the rising support trendline at 2075.

Today s Non Farm Payrolls​​ expected at +220k will impact the US Dollar Index (DXY). That wil be the trigger on stocks. Seing weakness of US Dollar should be bad for US financials assets...

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2111.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2085.5


​​​​It seems that not much noticed that we had a death cross on the Dow Jones Transportation: ​
the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones ​Transports crosses below the 200 DMA ( Death Cross ).
Also, the technicals on DJ Transports are very ugly: ​DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1
2) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​3) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​4) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​5) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
6) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2095 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2119.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2090 to 2112
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports: Death Cross ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Near Support Trendline ?
​5) Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Near Highest Ever ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2111.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 26 with 2090.5 as suport and 2119.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2134

​We need to stay below 2111.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2111.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2095 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2095 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 5.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2031 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2090 and 2112.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

NFP Major Levels:
Supports: 2090.5 - 2075 - 2057 Resistances: 2111.5 - 2119.5 - 2134​​​
June 4 Back to Seasonals ?
​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We may have a tiny rebound today and test the
​Resistance Trendline of the ​Downtrend Channel now at 2117 and fade.
​This market is choppy, trendless and tough to trade...
We are making since the top at 2134 daily lower highs...​
I will follow the Financials as we are near a Major Support Trendline and
​have a huge impact ( as the Technology Sector also ) on the Mighty SP500 - See Link Below​

The only sector that seems to hold this market is the Financial Sector. As rates rise, it bring more margin power for Banks but start to be a drag on others sectors as the Ratio of the Mighty SP500 ETF IVV compare to the TLT ETF reached near the highest level since 2007 - see Link Below.

​​We are flirting with the 20 DMA at 2108.5 but for me the 50 DMA have a lot more significance IF we break it...​​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 5.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2094...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2114.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...
IF 2117 is triggered - I will turn NEUTRAL​​

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2085.5


​​​​It seems that not much noticed that we had a death cross on the Dow Jones Transportation: ​
the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones ​Transports crosses below the 200 DMA ( Death Cross ).
Also, the technicals on DJ Transports are very ugly: ​DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​​​​On May 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2106.9
2) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​3) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​4) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​5) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
6) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2114.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2096 to 2115
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports: Death Cross ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Near Support Trendline ?
​5) Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Near Highest Ever ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2114.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2082 as suport and 2114.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2133.5

​We need to stay below 2114.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2114.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2094 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 5.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2031 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2096 and 2115.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

June 3 Tiny Rebound ?
​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did reach 2117.75 yesterday and faded... We re
​following a downward channel with 2085.5 as support and 2118.5 as
​resistance. I think the only major factor holding the SP500 Index is stock
​buybacks from corporations ...

​​We may have a tiny rebound today and test the Resistance Trendline of the
​Downtrend Channel now at 2117 and fade. This market is choppy, trendless and tough to trade...
We are making since the top at 2134 daily lower highs...​
I will follow the Financials as we are near a Major Support Trendline and have a huge impact ( as the Technology Sector also ) on the Mighty SP500 - See Link Below​

We are flirting with the 20 DMA at 2108.5 but for me the 50 DMA have a lot more significance IF we break it...​​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 7.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2093.5...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2117 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...
IF 2117 is triggered - I will turn NEUTRAL​​

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2085.5


​​​​It seems that not much noticed that we had a death cross on the Dow Jones Transportation: ​
the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones ​Transports crosses below the 200 DMA ( Death Cross ).
Also, the technicals on DJ Transports are very ugly: ​DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​​​​On May 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2106.9
2) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​3) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​4) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​5) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
6) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2093.5 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2117
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2103 to 2117
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports: Death Cross ?
4) Financials: SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Near Support Trendline ?

Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2117 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2084 as suport and 2117 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2133


​We need to stay below 2117 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2117 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2093.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 7.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2030 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2103 and 2117.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 2 Follow the Channel ?
​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterdayday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did have that slight pressure on US Equities at
​the end of the month. Now New Month - New Pattern. Tiny rebound expect
​to MAX 2120.5 followed ​by slow bleed til June 7. The whole month of June
​will be stuck in a Range according to Seasonalities.​​​​
​​Tough too trade it will be, more than May... Til we break that rising wedge...

We did reach 2117.75 yesterday and faded... We re following a downward channel with 2085.5 as support and 2118.5 as resistance. I think the only major factor holding the SP500 Index is stock buybacks from corporations ...

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 7.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2093...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2118.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2085.5


​​It seems that not much noticed that we had a death cross on the Dow Jones Transportation: ​
the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones ​Transports crosses below the 200 DMA ( Death Cross ).
Also, the technicals on DJ Transports are very ugly: ​DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​​​​On May 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2106.9
2) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​3) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​4) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​5) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
6) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2093 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2118.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2093 to 2112
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2118.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2085.5 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2132.5


​We need to stay below 2118.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2118.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2093 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 7.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2029 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2093 and 2112.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
June 1 New Month - New Pattern ?
​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​Not much have changed for me since the past couple
​of trading sessions.​ Last day for month end: rebalancing and strong US
​Dollar still put slight pressure on equities.​​

We did have that slight pressure on US Equities at the end of the month.
Now New Month - New Pattern. Tiny rebound expect to MAX 2120.5 followed
​by slow bleed til June 7. The whole month of June will be stuck in a Range according to Seasonalities.​​​​
​​Tough too trade it will be, more than May... Til we break that rising wedge...

In fact with the month end correction, we did close slightly below thw 20 DMA then at 2106.9.
Closing was 2106 on May 29...​​​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til June 7.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2093...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

Market is the most complacent ( according to the ratio of Russel 1000 Financial Services ​Index ( RIFIN ) and the VIX ) since July 2104. - See link below.

​​
It seems that not much noticed that we had a death cross on the Dow Jones Transportation: ​
the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones ​Transports crosses below the 200 DMA ( Death Cross ).
Also, the technicals on DJ Transports are very ugly: ​DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​​​​On May 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2106.9
2) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​3) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​4) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​5) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
6) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2093 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2126
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2101 to 2115
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports: Death Cross ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2118 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2087.5 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2132.


​We need to stay below 2120.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2087.5

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2093 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til June 7.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2028 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2101 and 2115.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

May 29 Last Day of Month End Experiment ?
​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​Month End. Performance have been a lot better than
​what seasonalities expected til May 27. ​​​Having that kind of ​outperformance
​ (SP500) near the end of the month ( +1.8% for the SP500 Index ) when we
​take into account the bonds underperformance til May 22 ( I take the IEF
​ETF - ​​​iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund - perf of -0.6%), ​I expect some
​asset class switch til mont end: selling SP500 to buy bonds.

Not much have changed for me since the past couple of trading sessions.
​Last day for month end: rebalancing and strong US Dollar still put slight pressure on equities.​​
​​
​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til May 29.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2092.5...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2118 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

Market is the most complacent ( according to the ratio of Russel 1000 Financial Services ​Index ( RIFIN ) and the VIX ) since July 2104. - See link below.

​​The Dow Jones Transport broke its major support trendline but not the SP500: see link below.

​​Technicals are at crossroads as shown by the SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA; this ratio is testing the Resistance Trendline​​ that started on January 6 and SP500 Index is near a Major Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully... See Link Below.

​​Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092.5 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2131
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2105 to 2121
​​
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: At Crossroads ?
​​4) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport and SP500: Major Divergence ?
5) Complacent market: SP500 and Russel1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?

Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2118 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2086 as suport and 2118 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2131

We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2124 as suport and 2150 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2118 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2118 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2092.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til May 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2027 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2105 and 2121.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 28 Back to Month End ?
​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​Well that Asset Mix Rebalancing started quite violently
​on May 26. What drives it is the US Dollar outperformance lately
​( DXY Index ) bringing on top opf it some international sellers.
Expect a tiny rebound today to 2107 MAX 2115 before resuming downtrend.​
We did close near the 20 DMA then at 2105.3 and we re not far from the
​50 DMA at 2091. IF we break the 50 DMA, then expect another nasty bear wave til 2079 MAX 2068 for now.​

Month End. Performance have been a lot better than what seasonalities expected til May 27. ​​​Having that kind of ​outperformance (SP500) near the end of the month ( +1.8% for the SP500 Index ) when we take into account the bonds underperformance til May 22 ( I take the IEF ETF - ​​​iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund - perf of -0.6%), ​I expect some asset class switch til mont end: selling SP500 to buy bonds.
​​
​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til May 29.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2092...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2121 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

The Dow Jones Transport broke its major support trendline but not the SP500: see link below.

​​Technicals are at crossroads as shown by the SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA; this ratio is testing the Resistance Trendline​​ that started on January 6 and SP500 Index is near a Major Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully... See Link Below.

​​Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2130.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2111 to 2124
​​
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: At Crossroads ?
​​4) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport and SP500: Major Divergence ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2121 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2089.5 as suport and 2121 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2130.5

We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2124 as suport and 2150 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2121 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2121 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til May 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2026 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2111 and 2124.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 27 Tiny Rebound ?
​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2124 level on May 26, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​Already almost Month End. Performance have been a lot
​better than what seasonalities expected til May 22. ​​​Having that kind of
​outperformance (SP500) near the end of the month when we take into
​account the bonds underperformance til May 22 ( I take the IEF ETF -
​​​iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund - perf of -1.1%),
​I expect some asset class switch til mont end: selling SP500 to buy bonds.

​​​​​​​​​​​Well that Asset Mix Rebalancing started quite violently on May 26. What drives it is the US Dollar outperformance lately ( DXY Index ) bringing on top opf it some international sellers.
Expect a tiny rebound today to 2107 MAX 2115 before resuming downtrend.​
We did close near the 20 DMA then at 2105.3 and we re not far from the 50 DMA at 2091. IF we break the 50 DMA, then expect another nasty bear wave til 2079 MAX 2068 for now.​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til May 29.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2091...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2122.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2130.5 MAX 2134...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

The Dow Jones Transport broke its major support trendline but not the SP500: see link below.

​​Technicals are at crossroads as shown by the SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA; this ratio is testing the Resistance Trendline​​ that started on January 6 and SP500 Index is near a Major Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully... See Link Below.

​​Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2091 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2130.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2100 to 2115
​​
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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: At Crossroads ?
​​4) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport and SP500: Major Divergence ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 26 ) as long as we stay below 2122.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 22 with 2092 as suport and 2122.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2130.5

We broke on May 26 an uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2124 as suport and 2150 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2124 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2122.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2130.5 MAX 2134...

​​Only a daily close below 2124 ( it did on May 26 ) , will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2079

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2091 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2091 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til May 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2024 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2100 and 2115.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

May 26 Near Month End ?
​​​
​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​Again yesterday for a third time, we failed for a third
​time to stay above ​the second resistance ​trendline. Todays level is at
​2129.5.​ ​​​We also failed yesterday to close above ​the that uptrend channel
​with 2131 as support.​​

​Todays level is at 2130.​

Already almost Month End. Performance have been a lot better than what seasonalities expected til May 22.
​​​Having that kind of outperformance (SP500) near the end of the month when we take into account the bonds underperformance til May 22 ( I take the IEF ETF - ​​iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund - perf of -1.1%),
​I expect some asset class switch til mont end: selling SP500 to buy bonds.

​​​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til May 29.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2090...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2105.5 MAX 2090

Technicals are at crossroads as shown by the SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA; this ratio is testing the Resistance Trendline​​ that started on January 6 and SP500 Index is near a Major Trendline on a Rising Wedge. We must follow that carefully... See Link Below.


​​Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2090 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2130
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2112 to 2127
​​

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​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: At Crossroads ?
​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2124 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2130

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2124 as suport and 2150 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2124 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2124, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2105.5 MAX 2090

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2090 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til May 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2024 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1997 max 1963...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2112 and 2127.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 22 Still: Failed Staying Above 2nd Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Not much have change for me, market continue to grind with no momentum,
like a usual behavioe and certainly not like a break out pattern...​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​We failed twice to stay above the second resistance
​trendline.Todays level is at 2129.​ ​​We also failed yesterday to close above
​the that uptrend channel with 2123.5 as support.​​
​​
Again yesterday for a third time, we failed for a third time to stay above
​the second resistance ​trendline. Todays level is at 2129.5.​ ​​
​We also failed yesterday to close above ​the that uptrend channel with 2131 as support.​​


​​​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2087...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2119, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2104.5 MAX 2088.5

Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500. See Link Below

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2088.5 and next big resistance is a Resistance Trendline at 2129.5
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2117 to 2134
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?
4) A weak Break Out: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?
5) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?

​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2119 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2129.5

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2119 as suport and 2145 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on May 20 an uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2123.5 as suport and 2172 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2119 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2134 MAX 2144...

​​Only a daily close below 2119, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2104.5 MAX 2088.5

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2023 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2119 and 2134.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 21 Again: Failed Staying Above 2nd Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Yesterday I wrote: ​We failed to break and stay above the second resistance
​trendline on ​​May 19 and had a bad daily candle - a shooting star. ​The level
​for today on the second resistance trendline ​is at 2128.5.

We failed twice to stay above the second resistance trendline.
Todays level is at 2129.​
​​We also failed yesterday to close above the that uptrend channel with 2123.5 as support.​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2087...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2115, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2103.5 MAX 2087.

Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500. See Link Below

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2087 and next big resistance is a New Resistance Trendline at 2129
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2109 to 2125
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?
4) A weak Break Out: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?
5) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?

​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2115 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2129

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2118.5 as suport and 2144 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on May 20 an uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2123.5 as suport and 2172 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2115 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2115, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2103.5 MAX 2087.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2087 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2087 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2022 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2109 and 2125.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 20 Failed Breaking 2nd Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Yesterday I wrote: We are testing the second resistance trendline this
​morning at 2127.5( see top Red Trendline - 1rst chart below ) ​after
​breaking the first one at ​2111 on May 14 ( see top Blue Trendline -
​1rst chart below ).

​We failed to break and stay above the second resistance trendline on ​
​May 19 and had a bad daily candle - a shooting star. ​The level for today on the second resistance trendline
​is at 2128.5.

We are testing this morning that uptrend channel with 2123.5 as support.​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2085.5...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2115, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2102.5 MAX 2085.5.

Huge shift in the US Dollar Index tell me more Volatility is coming in the SP500. See Link Below

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2085.5 and next big resistance is a New Resistance Trendline at 2128.5​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2115 to 2129
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?
4) A weak Break Out: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?
5) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?

​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2115 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2128.5

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 14 with 2109 as suport and 2136.5 as resistance.

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2123.5 as suport and 2172 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2115 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2115, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2100 MAX 2083.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2085.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2085.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 24..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2020 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2115 and 2129.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 19 Testing 2nd Resistance Trendline ?
​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Yesterday I wrote: Usually, when we have Break Out with New Highs, it
​gain strenght and ​momentum​; in our case, it is a weak one on Low Volume:
​Market Fatigue.... See Link Below.

We are testing the second resistance trendline this morning at 2127.5
( see top Red Trendline - 1rst chart below ) ​after breaking the first one at
​2111 on May 14 ( see top Blue Trendline - 1rst chart below ).

We are still within that uptrend channel with 2116 as support.​​
​​
​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 19.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2083.5...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2116, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2100 MAX 2083.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market quite complacent as the ratio of Financials to VIX is near an old resistance trendline: The market continue to price less and less risks on each correction as the level of the ratio continue to make higher lows... The Fear Gauge is definitively falling and market near total complacency... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2083.5 and next big resistance is a New Resistance Trendline at 2127.5​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2116 to 2137
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?
4) A weak Break Out: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?
5) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2116 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2127.5

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2116 as suport and 2165 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2116 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2116, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2100 MAX 2083.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2083.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2083.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 19..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2019 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2116 and 2137.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 18 Weak Break Out ?
​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Last Friday I wrote: Finally we did have the most expected Break Out.
​To be a Real one for me, we should not trade back below ( Daily close I
​mean ) the Blue Line on the chart below for the next few trading sessions;
​today s level is 2110.

Usually, when we have Break Out with New Highs, it gain strenght and
​momentum​; in our case, it is a weak one on Low Volume: Market Fatigue.... See Link Below.

​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 19.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2082.5...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2110, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2099 MAX 2082.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2082.5 and next big resistance is a New Resistance Trendline at 2127.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2110 to 2127.
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?
4) A weak Break Out: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: No Strenght ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2111 on a daily close.

​​​​We have a new Resistance Trendline that started back with the peak of March 23 and April 27 at 2127.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2108.5 as suport and 2157 as resistance.


​We need to stay above 2110 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2127 MAX 2138.5...

​​Only a daily close below 2110, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2099 MAX 2082.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2082.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2082.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 19..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2018 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2110 and 2127.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 15 Finally a Break Out ?
​We did close above the 2103 on May 14, triggering the Bull Stance.

Yesterday I wrote: That Trendless market will continue to give many false
​signal as long as we do not have a Real Break Out.​​​​What I am watching is a
​new Resistance Trendline that started back on April 27 with 2112 as
​Resistance( Blue Line on the chart below ) and a New Support Trendline
​that started back on April 1 with 2061.5 as Support. ( Red Trendline on the
​chart below ). Known as the Rising Wedge.

Finally we did have the most expected Break Out. To be a Real one for me, we should not trade back below ( Daily close I mean ) the Blue Line on the chart below for the next few trading sessions; today s level is 2111.

​​​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 17.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2081.3...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2129 MAX 2140...

​​Only a daily close below 2111, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096.5 MAX 2081.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On May 14, we broke a rising Wedge resistance trendline at 2112.​​
​​​2) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​3) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​4) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
5) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​6) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​8) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​9) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2081.5 and next big resistance is a Fibonaci Level at 2129.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2111 to 2129.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Index: Break Out ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 14 ) as long as we stay above 2111 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2102 as suport and 2150 as resistance.

We broke on May 14 a rising Wedge that started back on April 1 with 2061.5 as Support and 2112 as Resistance.​​

​​We broke on May 11 a downtrend channel that started on May 4 with 2064.5 as suport and 2096 as resistance.


​We need to stay above 2111 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 ( it did on May 14 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2129 MAX 2140...

​​Only a daily close below 2111, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096.5 MAX 2081.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow bleed Trend trend til May 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2017 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2111 and 2129.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 14 Stuck in the Mud ?
​​​We did close below the 2103 on May 11, triggering the Bear Stance.

Not much have changed for me since yesterday.

​​That market continue to surprise me with huge move up or down with
a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. See Link Below
​​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?

That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we do not have a Real Break Out.​​

​​What I am watching is a new Resistance Trendline that started back on April 27 with 2112 as Resistance
( Blue Line on the chart below ) and a New Support Trendline that started back on April 1 with 2061.5 as Support. ( Red Trendline on the chart below ). Known as the Rising Wedge.

That is a new rising wedge and define the new Break Out Levels...​​ Til then stuck in the mud we are...

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2080.7...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2112 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The Dow Theory bring another warning sign - See Link Below.

​​The US Dollar under pressure again is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​The market is riskless as the SKEW Index is the lowest since October 2013.. See link below

​​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​2) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​3) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
4) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​5) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​6) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​8) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​9) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​10) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2080.7 and next big resistance is rising wedge Level at 2112.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2092 to 2112.
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?
4) Riskless Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Trendless Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?
6) Warning: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 11 ) as long as we stay below 2103 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2094 as suport and 2143 as resistance.

We are within a new rising Wedge that started back on April 1 with 2061.5 as Support and 2112 as Resistance.​​

​​We broke on May 11 a downtrend channel that started on May 4 with 2064.5 as suport and 2096 as resistance.


​We need to stay below 2103 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2112 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2016 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2092 and 2112.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 13 New Tech Levels ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2103 on May 11, triggering the Bear Stance.

That market continue to surprise me with huge move up or down with
a low volume environment ​in a Trendless way. See Link Below
​​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?

That Trenless market will continue to give many false signal as long as we
do not have a Real Break Out.​​

​​What I am watching is a new Resistance Trendline that started back on April 27 with 2112 as Resistance
( Blue Line on the chart below ) and a New Support Trendline that started back on April 1 with 2060.5 as Support. ( Red Trendline on the chart below ). Known as the Rising Wedge.

That is a new rising wedge and define the new Break Out Levels...​​

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2080.6...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2112 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The US Dollar under pressure again is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​The market is riskless as the SKEW Index is the lowest since October 2013.. See link below

​​Quite interesting as the Financials are in Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them )

​​
​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​2) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​3) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
4) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​5) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​6) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​8) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​9) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​10) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2080.6 and next big resistance is rising wedge Level at 2112.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2096 to 2112.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?
4) Riskless Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Trendless Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 11 ) as long as we stay below 2103 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on May 7 with 2086.5 as suport and 2136 as resistance.

We are within a new rising Wedge that started back on April 1 with 2060.5 as Support and 2112 as Resistance.​​

​​We broke on May 11 a downtrend channel that started on May 4 with 2064.5 as suport and 2096 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2059 as suport and 2087.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2103 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2112 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2015 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2096 and 2112.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 12 A Failed Break Out ?
​​​We did close below the 2103 on May 11, triggering the Bear Stance.

Yesterday I wrote: IF we are in a Real Break Out Mode, we shoud not see a
​closing below 2103 ​in the next few trading sessions​... So many surprises
​we had lately with that market, I don t trust it at all - See also my Link Below​
​​SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?

We are back within that Ascending Triangle with 2081 support
​and 2103 ​as resistance...

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2080.8...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2113.5 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The US Dollar under pressure again is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​The market is riskless as the SKEW Index is the lowest since October 2013.. See link below


​​Quite interesting as the Financials are in Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them )

​​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​2) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​3) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
4) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​5) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​6) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​8) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​9) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​10) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2080.7 and next big resistance is Triangle Level at 2103.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2103.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?
4) Riskless Market: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 11 ) as long as we stay below 2103 on a daily close.

​​​​We are back within a downtrend channel that started on May 4 with 2064.5 as suport and 2096 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2059 as suport and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 5 a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We broke on May 8 an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2078 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2103 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2103 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2113.5 MAX 2120...

​​Only a daily close below 2103, ( it did on May 11 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2015 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2103.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 11 A Real Break Out ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2076.5 on May 7, triggering the Bull Stance.

IF we are in a Real Break Out Mode, we shoud not see a closing below 2103
​in the next few trading sessions​... So many surprises we had lately
with that market, I don t trust it at all - See also my Link Below​
​​SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?

We broke on May 8 that Ascending Triangle with 2078 support and 2103.5
​as resistance...

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12.

We are back also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 now at 2080.8...​​

​​Only a daily close below 2095.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2084 MAX 2079.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 ( it did on May 7 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...

The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​

​​Quite interesting as the Financials are in Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them )

​​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.9
​​​2) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​3) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
4) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​5) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​6) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​7) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​8) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​9) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​10) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7



​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2080.8 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2120.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2095 to 2115.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) A Real Break Out Really: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?



​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 7 ) as long as we stay above 2078 on a daily close.

​​​​We broke on May 8 a downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2059 as suport and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 5 a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We broke on May 8 an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2078 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2095.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2095.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2084 MAX 2079.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 ( it did on May 7 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2013 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2095 and 2115.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 8 Stuck in the Mud ?
​​We did close above the 2076.5 on May 7, triggering the Bull Stance.
Conviction is low on that : NFP today:
A strong number will be US Dollar Bid and then good for Equities...​
A weak number will be US Dollar Offer and then bad for Equities...​

I think the best example of the market behavior is shown by the Financials.
We are within a huge consolidation mode and testing the support and
​resistance​ trendline since January 27. That tells me the next move will be
​violent as it is building for a long time. See Link Below No5.
​​
We are back withon that Ascending Triangle with 2078 support and 2103.5 as resistance...

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12.

We are bacl also above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 7 at 2080.9...​​

​​Only a daily close below 2078, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072 MAX 2059.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 ( it did on May 7 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...

The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​The Dow Jones Transport is near also on a Break Down Pattern - See Link Below

​​Quite interesting as the Financials are near Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them ) - See Link Below.

​​Small Capitalization took a serious hit since the top of the SP500 on April 27 and broke Major Support Level as shown by the Link below...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
​2) ​On May 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
3) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​4) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​5) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​6) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​7) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​8) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​9) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7



​​​​​Next big support is the ascending triangle at 2078 and next big resistance is the Resistance at 2103.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2072 to 2095.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Small Cap Breakdown: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Underperforming SP500 ?
4) DJ Theory: DJ Transport: Near the Precipice ?
5) Stuck in the Mud: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Consolidation Mode ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since May 7 ) as long as we stay above 2078 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2059 as suport and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 5 a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2078 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay above 2078 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2078, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072 MAX 2059.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 ( it did on May 7 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Dead Cat Bounce Trend trend til May 12..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2013 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2072 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 7 Major Support Trendline Broken ?
​​​We did close below the 2103.5 on May 5, triggering the Bear Stance.
Yesterday s shift down explain why I did not turn Bullish on May 4th...

Yesterday I wrote: Expect a Dead Cat Bounce towards 2095 MAX
​2098 and fade...

We did trade as high as 2093.75 and fade back...​​
​​
We broke on May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5 and then change that range bound tough market to trade to a Nasty Bear Leg Towards 2052 MAX 2033.5....​​

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8.

We broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 6 at 2080.9...​​

Now that Ascending Triangle Pattern Resistance that started back on February 2 is 2076.5 Resistance.

​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, ( it did on May 5 )will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...

The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​The Dow Jones Transport is near also on a Break Down Pattern - See Link Below

​​Quite interesting as the Financials are near Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them ) - See Link Below.

​​Small Capitalization took a serious hit since the top of the SP500 on April 27 and broke Major Support Level as shown by the Link below...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) ​On May 7, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.9
2) ​On May 6 the Support Trendline of that Ascending Triangle at 2074.5
​3) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​4) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​5) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​6) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​7) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​8) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7



​​​​​Next big support is the bottom trendline at 2033.5 and next big resistance is the Resistance at 2076.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2052 to 2077.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Small Cap Breakdown: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Underperforming SP500 ?
4) DJ Theory: DJ Transport: Near the Precipice ?


​​
Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 5 ) as long as we stay below 2103.5 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2062.5 as suport and 2090.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 5 a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2074.5 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2103.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, ( it did on May 5 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2076.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2103.5 MAX 2120...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bearss.

Already starting to trade above the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to lose control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2013 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2052 and 2077.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

May 6 Near Major Support Trendline ?
​We did close below the 2103.5 on May 5, triggering the Bear Stance.
Yesterday s shift down explain why I did not turn Bullish on May 4th...

Last Friday I wrote: I am quite uncomfortable to switch Bullish when
​Seasonals are in a Bear Trend - so decided to a Neutral Stance and be
​back with a Strategy when more conviction or a better risk reward
​technical set up will occur.

Expect a Dead Cat Bounce towards 2095 MAX 2098 and fade...
​​
We need to break on either side of that Ascending Triangle
​( 2074.5 or 2103.5 for today s level ) to change that range bound tough market to trade....​​

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8.

We broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on May 5 and are near the 50 DMA at 2081.5...​​

We need to hold absolutely an Ascending Triangle Pattern Support that started back on February 2 with 2074.5 support.

​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, ( it did on May 5 )will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2131.5...

The US Dollar under pressure is bringing a sell off in US financial assets: Bonds and Stocks....

​​Quite interesting as the Financials are near Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them ) - See Link Below.

​​Small Capitalization took a serious hit since the top of the SP500 on April 27 and broke Major Support Level as shown by the Link below...


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) ​​​​On May 5, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.3
​​2) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​3) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​4) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​5) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​6) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​7) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
8) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​


​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2074.5 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2120.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2098.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Small Cap Breakdown: Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Technical Breakdown ?
4) Financials : SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Near Break Out ?
5) SP500 Index: SP500: Near Major Support Trendline ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since May 5 ) as long as we stay below 2103.5 on a daily close.

​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on May 4 with 2078 as suport and 2108.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on May 5 a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2074.5 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2103.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, ( it did on May 5 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2103.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2131.5...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2012 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2098.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 5 Neutral Stance ?
​​​We did close over the 2104 on May 4, triggering the Neutral Stance
As I mentioned on my Intraday Technical Page​...

Last Friday I wrote: We are back above the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving
​Average ) and tested almost on April 30 the Ascending Triangle -
​now testing the upper side at 2104 - so closing today is crucial.​​

We need to break on either side of that Ascending Triangle
​( 20171.5 or 2104 for today s level ) to change that range bound tough market to trade....​​

I am quite uncomfortable to switch Bullish when Seasonals are in a Bear Trend - so decided to a Neutral Stance and be back with a Strategy when more conviction or a better risk reward technical set up will occur.

​​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8.

We need to hold absolutely an Ascending Triangle Pattern Support that started back on February 2 with 2073 support.

​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2131 MAX 2138.5...

Quite interesting as the Financials are near Break Out ( interest rates are on the rise, so fatter margin for them ) - See Link Below.

​​Small Capitalization took a serious hit since the top of the SP500 on April 27 and broke Major Support Level as shown by the Link below...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​2) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​3) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​4) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​5) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​6) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
7) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​


​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2073 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2120.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2098 to 2014.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Small Cap Breakdown: Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Technical Breakdown ?
4) Financials : SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Near Break Out ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since May 4 ) as long as we stay between 2103.5 and 2120 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2100.5 as suport and 2132 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2073 support and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2120 or above 2103.5 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2103.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2131 MAX 2138.5...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2082 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2082 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2011 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2098 and 2014.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 4 May Seasonality ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close very near the 2104 on April 24, triggering the Bear Stance...

Last Friday I wrote: I expect a Dead Cat Bounce to MAX 2093 before
​resuming downtrend.​​​​

The Dead Cat Bounce have been a lot more stronger and powerful than
​I thought​​ and we are near reversal at the 2104 level.

We are back above the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) and tested almost on April 30 the Ascending Triangle - now testing the upper side at 2104 - so closing today is crucial.​​

We need to break on either side of that Ascending Triangle ( 20171.5 or 2104 for today s level ) to change that range bound tough market to trade....​​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8.

We need to hold absolutely an Ascending Triangle Pattern Support that started back on February 2 with 2071.5 support

​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2104 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...

Small Capitalization took a serious hit since the top of the SP500 on April 27 and broke Major Support Level as shown by the Link below...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​1) ​On May 1, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.4
​​2) ​On May 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​3) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​4) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​5) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​6) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
7) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​


​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2071.5 and next big resistance is the trendline at 2104.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2090 to 2012.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : May Correction ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Small Cap Breakdown: Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Technical Breakdown ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 27 ) as long as we stay below 2108.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 30 with 2090.5 as suport and 2120 as resistance.

​​We still take into account a downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2073.5 as suport and 2101.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2106 as suport and 2133 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2071.5 support and 2104 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2104 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2087 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2104 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend til May 8..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2011 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2090 and 2012.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
May 1 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close very near the 2104 on April 24, triggering the Bear Stance...

As expected, Month End Experiment bring some correction into SP500.

For today I expect a Dead Cat Bounce to MAX 2093 before resuming
downtrend.​​​​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​We broke on April 30 a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090. Also the 20 and 50 DMA were broken.

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til May 3rd.

We need to hold absolutely an Ascending Triangle Pattern Support that started back on February 2 with 2069.5 support

​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2104 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...

The NYSE Summation Index gave us a Macro Bear Signal on April 30 - See Link Below

​​Take note the the Dow Jones Transport did close below its 200 DMA - See Link Below

​​Retail Participation through ETF s is weakening tremendously lately - See Link Below.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.


​​​​Some Comments:​


​1) On April 30, ​We broke a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.
​​2) ​On April 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2089.4
​​3) ​On April 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2081.7
​4) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
5) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​


​​​​​Next big support is the support trendline at 2069.5 and next big resistance is the trendline at 2104.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2077 to 2093.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4)Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
5) Retail Participation: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?
6) Dow Jones Transport in Jeopardy: DJ Transport: My Broken 200 DMA ?
7) Macro Signal: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 27 ) as long as we stay below 2108.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2077 as suport and 2104 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2106 as suport and 2133 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2069.5 support and 2104 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2104 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2087 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2104 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til May 3rd..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2009 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2077 and 2093.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 30 Month End Experiment ?
​​​We did close very near the 2104 on April 24, triggering the Bear Stance...

Not much have changed for me since the past 2 days even with the FOMC
that would like to hike rates but still can t as data not good enough.

Yesterday was the ​​Last day for Bullish Seasonailities before Month
​End Effect kicks in.

​​Equities have performed quite well compare to the bond market: for this month SP500 Index up 1.88% and IEF ETF​ ​down -0.61%. So tiny portfolio rebalancing needed: seeling stocks and buying bonds...​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​We are near breaking a Support Trendline that started on April 6 at 2090.

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend for April 30.


​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2108.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...

Take note the the Dow Jones Transport did close below its 200 DMA - See Link Below

​​Retail Participation through ETF s is weakening tremendously lately - See Link Below.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
2) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
3) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​5) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​6) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2081.5 and next big resistance is the last peak at 2120.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2104.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4)Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
5) Retail Participation: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?
6) Dow Jones Transport in Jeopardy: DJ Transport: My Broken 200 DMA ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 27 ) as long as we stay below 2108.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 27 with 2080.5 as suport and 2108.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 29 an uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2106 as suport and 2133 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2068 support and 2104 as resistance. ( Broken on April 23rd )

​We need to stay below 2108.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2087 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2108.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2120 MAX 2128.5...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bearish Trend trend on April 30..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2009 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2104.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 29 SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily M5 - Month End Effect ?
​​​​​​​​​​We did close very near the 2104 on April 24, triggering the Bear Stance...

Not much have changed for me since yesterday - quite surprise of the
strong come back after near testing the low of April 23rd....​

​​Lat day for Bullish Seasonailites before Month End Effect kicks in.

​​Equities have performed quite well compare to the bond market:
for this month SP500 Index up 2.27% and IEF ETF​ ​down -0.24%.

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29.


​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2133...

Retail Participation through ETF s is weakening tremendously lately - See Link Below.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
2) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
3) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​5) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​6) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2081.5 and next big resistance is the last peak at 2120.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2096 to 2115.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4)Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
5) Retail Participation: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 27 ) as long as we stay below 2120 on a daily close.

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2106 as suport and 2133 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2066.5 support and 2104 as resistance. ( Broken on April 23rd )

​We need to stay below 2120 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2087 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2133...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2008 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2096 and 2115.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 28 ​​Break Out Rejection ?
​We did close very near the 2104 on April 24, triggering the Bear Stance...

Yesterday I wrote:
​For that Break Out Pattern to unfold, we need absolutely ​to stay above ​the
​Trendline on a daily close now at 2104, unless false break out.

Well we did close at 2104.75: I ll turn​​ Bearish because of the Daily Candle
Pattern that is typical Pattern of a Rejection a short term top....​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29.


​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2133...

Retail Participation through ETF s is weakening tremendously lately - See Link Below.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
2) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
3) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​5) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​6) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2081 and next big resistance trendline from the channel at 2123.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2084 to 2110.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4)Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
5) Retail Participation: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 27 ) as long as we stay below 2120 on a daily close.

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2101.5 as suport and 2128.5 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2064.5 support and 2105 as resistance. ( Broken on April 23rd )

​We need to stay below 2120 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​Only a daily close below 2104, ( it did on April 27 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2128.5 MAX 2133...
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2007 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2084 and 2110.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 27 Weak Break Out ?
​​We did close above the 2105 on April 23, triggering the Bull Stance...

Not much have changed for me since the Break Out on April 23rd.
I am quite surprise to see no quick ramp up: volume is still low
and my indicators tellling me some Volatility ahead - See Link Below.​​

For that Break Out Pattern to unfold, we need absolutely to stay above
​the Trendline on a daily close now at 2104, unless false break out.

​​Also take note that we had on April 24 the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) getting over the 50 DMA, a good technical sign indeed.​​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 ( it did on April 23rd ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2119 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2104, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) On April 24, the 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA​
2) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
3) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​5) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​6) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2081 and next big resistance trendline from the channel at 2123.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2104 to 2119.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 23 ) as long as we stay above 2104 on a daily close.

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2096 as suport and 2123.5 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2063 support and 2105 as resistance. ( Broken on April 23rd )

​We need to stay above 2104 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​Only a daily close above 2105 ( it did on April 23rd ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2104, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2064.5.
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2081 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2081 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2007 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2104 and 2119.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 24 Break Out ?
​We did close above the 2105 on April 23, triggering the Bull Stance...

Finally we did get out on April 23rd of that Technical Set up...

​​The SP500 index broke on April 23rd an Ascending Triangle Pattern that
​started since February 25 2015 but still far of breaking the Major Rising
​Wedge that started on October 2015. So in summary, a Skirmish was won
​by the Bulls but the battle is still on for a Real Break Out.​
At those level, there is absolutely no Fear being priced into the Market. See Link Below.

For that Break Out Pattern to unfold, we need absolutely to stay above the Trendline now at 2104, unless false break out.

​​Also take note that we are near having the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) getting over the 50 DMA, a good technical sign indeed.​​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 ( it did on April 23rd ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2119 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2104, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2080 MAX 2064.5.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
2) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​5) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2080 and next big resistance trendline from the channel at 2118.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2100 to 2119.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sentiment: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?
4) Technicals: SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?
5) Risks Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Highest since September 2014 ?
6) Riskless Market: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 23 ) as long as we stay above 2104 on a daily close.

We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on April 17 with 2091 as suport and 2118.5 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2060 support and 2105 as resistance. ( Broken on April 23rd )

​We need to stay above 2104 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​Only a daily close above 2105 ( it did on April 23rd ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2104, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2080 MAX 2064.5.
​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2080 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2080 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Buulish Trend trend til April 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2005 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2100 and 2119.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 23 Another Failed Break Out ?
​​​We did close below the 2094 on April 17, triggering the Bear Stance...

Same old song from me:
​​Another Failed Break Out attempt Yesterday at the 2105 zone...
We re still in consolidation in a very choppy market.
As Long as we do not break Up or Down that Technical Pattern​,
​that market behavior will prevail...​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back ​on February 2 with 2060 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trend trend til April 29.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, ( it did on April 17 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079 MAX 2064.5.

Interesting to note that Risk Taking Behavior is the Strongest since September 2014: Some participants reaaly want to play that Break Out probability - See Link Below...

​​Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
2) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​5) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2079 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2087 to 2105.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sentiment: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?
4) Technicals: SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?
5) Risks Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Highest since September 2014 ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 17 ) as long as we stay below 2105 on a daily close.

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on April 21 with 2079 as suport and 2102 as resistance.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2060 support and 2105 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2105 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2079, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2064.5 MAX 2053.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2079 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2079 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Buulish Trend trend til April 29..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2005 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2087 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 22 Failed Break Out ?
​We did close below the 2094 on April 17, triggering the Bear Stance...

Another Failed Break Out attempt Yesterday at the 2105 zone...
We re still in consolidation in a very choppy market.
As Long as we do not break Up or Down that Technical Pattern​,
​that market behavior will prevail...​

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back ​on February 2 with 2058 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, ( it did on April 17 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075.5 MAX 2064.5.

Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
2) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​5) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2078 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2078 to 2099.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sentiment: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?
4) Technicals: SP500: My Ascending Triangle Pattern ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 17 ) as long as we stay below 2105 on a daily close.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch an Ascending Triangle Pattern that started back on February 2 with 2058 support and 2105 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2105 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2063.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2053.5 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2078 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2078 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2004 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2078 and 2099.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 21 Potential Break Out ?
​​
​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2094 on April 17, triggering the Bear Stance...

Yesterday I wrote: ​I expect a dead cat bounce today to MAX 2093.5 and
​resume a slow bleed thereafter til April 22... Well we did trade stronger
​than I expected​ as high as 2097.5 but faded and closed at 2091...​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

Today is crucial as what the market will do - already at pre -opening, restested the Break Out Level of 2105.

​​​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2057 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2096 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2114 MAX 2118...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, ( it did on April 17 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075.5 MAX 2064.5.

Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around:
2nd biggest Chinese real estate developper filed for bankrupcy and
​Greece is getting short cash​ ​- See Link Below.

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
2) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​5) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2077 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2089 to 2105.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sentiment: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 17 ) as long as we stay below 2099 on a daily close.

​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 15 with 2058 as support and 2093 as resistance.

We broke on April 17 an uptrend channel that started on April 13 with 2091 as support and 2110 as resistance.

​We broke on April 17 an uptrend channel that started on April 6 with 2094 as support and 2135 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2057 support and 2105 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2096 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2096 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2114 MAX 2118...

​​Only a daily close below 2063.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2053.5 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2077 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2077 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2004 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2089 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 20 Failed Break Out and Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2094 on April 17, triggering the Bear Stance...

On April 17 I wrote: I will start to watch the support from the uptrend
​channel that stand at 2094. ​IF broken, then will tell me that we failed to
​have a Break Out and going lower... We almost have the 20 DMA crossed
​below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) - a bad technical sign indeed...​

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​I expect a dead cat bounce today to MAX 2093.5 and resume a slow bleed thereafter til April 22...

​​​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2055 as support and 2104 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2099 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2104 MAX 2118...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, ( it did on April 17 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075.5 MAX 2064.5.

Market Sentiment is quite high considering all the geo-political risks around - See Link Below.

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 17, the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA​
2) On April 10, we broke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​4) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​5) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2076 and next big resistance trendline at 2104.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2076 to 2093.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Market Sentiment: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 17 ) as long as we stay below 2099 on a daily close.

​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 15 with 2063.5 as support and 2103 as resistance.

We broke on April 17 an uptrend channel that started on April 13 with 2091 as support and 2110 as resistance.

​We broke on April 17 an uptrend channel that started on April 6 with 2094 as support and 2135 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2055 support and 2104 as resistance.

​We need to stay below 2099 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bearish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2099 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2104 MAX 2118...

​​Only a daily close below 2063.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2055 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2076 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2076 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 22, after resuming uptrend..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2003 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2076 and 2093.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 17  Second Attempt for Break Out ?
​​
​​​​​​​​We did close at the 2087.5 on April 10, triggering the Bull Stance...

But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​Another failed attempt to break out on April 16 at the 2105 zone BUT
​seasonals are turning Bullish for a few trading session ( til April 17)
​increasing the risk of the break out...​ But need a daily close above 2105
​for that...

I will start to watch the support from the uptrend channel that stand at 2094.
​IF broken, then will tell me that we failed to have a Break Out and going lower...
We almost have the 20 DMA crossed below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) - a bad technical sign indeed...​

​​​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2053.5 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trade trend til April 17.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a Break Out bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​The SKEW index is telling me how Complacent that market is - See Link Below

​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below


​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 10, we borke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​4) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​5) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2075.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2091 to 2105.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade - Update ?
4) Market Complacency: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Unusual Behavior ?





Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 10 ) as long as we stay above 2089 on a daily close.


We are within a new an uptrend channel that started on April 13 with 2091 as support and 2110 as resistance.

​We are within a new an uptrend channel that started on April 6 with 2094 as support and 2135 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2053.5 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay above 2094 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bullish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 ( it did on April 10 ) will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2094, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2075.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2075.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2002 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1968 max 1890...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2091 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 16 Near Break Out ?
​​​We did close at the 2087.5 on April 10, triggering the Bull Stance...

But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​


A failed attempt to break out on April 15 at the 2105 zone BUT
​seasonals are turning Bullish for a few tradind session increasing the
risk of the break out...​ But need a daily above 2105 for that...

​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2052 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bullish Trade trend til April 17.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a Break Out bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2127...

​​Only a daily close below 2089, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 10, we borke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​4) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​5) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2074 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2089 to 2105.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade - Update ?





Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 10 ) as long as we stay above 2089 on a daily close.


We are within a new an uptrend channel that started on April 13 with 2089 as support and 2108 as resistance.

​We are within a new an uptrend channel that started on April 6 with 2088.5 as support and 2128 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2052 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay above 2089 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bullish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 ( it did on April 10 ) will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2089, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2075 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2074 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2074 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2002 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2089 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 15 Range Trade Still ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close at the 2087.5 on April 10, triggering the Bull Stance...
Conviction is low on that one as​ I think we will range trade til mid-month;
​2050 to 2105 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

Not much have changed for me....​
A failed attempt to break out on April 13 at the 2100 zone and strong
​pullback tells me again the range trade scenario prevail...

​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2050 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a Break Out bull impulse toward 2128 MAX 2148...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2071.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below

​​Market is into a Complacent Phase as Geo-Political Risks arise and Volatility within other financial markets ( Forex, Commodities and Emerging Markets ) did not yet translate within the US financial market.

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 10, we borke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​4) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​5) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2072.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2083 to 2100.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 10 ) as long as we stay above 2083 on a daily close.


We are within a new an uptrend channel that started on April 6 with 2083 as support and 2213 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 10 an uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2047 as support and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2049 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay above 2083 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bullish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 ( it did on April 10 ) will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2072.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2072.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2000 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2083 and 2100.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Apr 14 Failed to Break ?
​​​​​​​​​​​We did close at the 2087.5 on April 10, triggering the Bull Stance...
Conviction is low on that one as​ I think we will range trade til mid-month;
​2049 to 2105 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

A failed attempt to break out yesterday at the 2100 zone and strong
​pullback tells me again the range trade scenario prevail...


​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2049 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a Break Out bull impulse toward 2128 MAX 2148...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2071.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below

​​Market is into a Complacent Phase as Geo-Political Risks arise and Volatility within other financial markets ( Forex, Commodities and Emerging Markets ) did not yet translate within the US financial market.

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 10, we borke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​4) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​5) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2071 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2083 to 2097.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 10 ) as long as we stay above 2083 on a daily close.

We are not anymore since April 14 on a steep tiny rising wedge that started on April 6 ​with 2085 as ​support and 2105 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 10 an uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2047 as support and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2049 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay above 2083 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bullish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 ( it did on April 10 ) will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2073 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2071 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2071 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2000 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2083 and 2097.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​Apr 13 New Rising Wedge ?
​We did close at the 2087.5 on April 10, triggering the Bull Stance...
Conviction is low on that one as​ I think we will range trade til mid-month;
​2047 to 2105 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

We are within a new steep tiny rising wedge that started on April 6
​with 2085 as ​support and 2105 as resistance.


​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2047 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2105 will change that scenario to a Break Out bull impulse toward 2128 MAX 2148...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2071.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​The SP500 is one of the few Major Stock Index which have not have a Break Out Yet... See Link Below

​​Market is into a Complacent Phase as Geo-Political Risks arise and Volatility within other financial markets ( Forex, Commodities and Emerging Markets ) did not yet translate within the US financial market.

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On April 10, we borke on the upside a resistance Trendline from an Uptrend Channel at 2087.5​
​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​3) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​4) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​5) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2069 and next big resistance trendline at 2105.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2083 to 2100.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since April 10 ) as long as we stay above 2083 on a daily close.

We are within a new steep tiny rising wedge that started on April 6 ​with 2085 as ​support and 2105 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on April 10 an uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2047 as support and 2087.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2047 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay above 2083 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bullish mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 ( it did on April 10 ) will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2083, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2071.5 MAX 2064.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2069 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2069 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1999 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2083 and 2100.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 10 New Support Trendline ?
​​We did close at the 2085.5 on April 9, keeping the Neutral Stance...
I think we will range trade til mid-month; 2045 to 2087 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2045.5 as
​support and 2087.5 as resistance.

Also, we have a new uptrend support trendline that started on April 6 with
​2076.5 level​​ which, IF broken, will be the first sign of weakness...

We have been testing the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) all week and unable to break them ( I mean close below ) - a good technical sign indeed...​​​
​​
​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the ​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2045.5 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2045.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​Market is into a Complacent Phase as Geo-Political Risks arise and Volatility within other financial markets ( Forex, Commodities and Emerging Markets ) did not yet translate within the US financial market.

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​3) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​4) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​5) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2087.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2076.5 to 2090.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: DJ Transportand SP500: Major Divergence ?
4) Technicals : SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?
5) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since April 6 ) as long as we stay between 2045.5 and 2087.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2045.5 as support and 2087.5 as resistance.

​Also, we have a new uptrend support trendline that started on April 6 with ​2076.5 level​​ which, IF broken, will be the first sign of weakness...

​​We broke on April 6 a downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2045.5 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay below 2087.5 or above 2045.5 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2087.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2090 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2045.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2067 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2067 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1998 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2076 and 2090.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 9 Complacent Markets ?
​​​​​​​​​We did close above 2061 on April 6, triggering the Neutral Stance...
I think we will range trade til mid-month; 2042 to 2083 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2043.5 as
​support and 2085.5 as resistance.
​​
​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the
​SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2043.5 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2085.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2043.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​Market is into a Complacent Phase as Geo-Political Risks arise and Volatility within other financial markets ( Forex, Commodities and Emerging Markets ) did not yet translate within the US financial market.

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​3) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​4) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​5) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2085.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2065 to 2078.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: DJ Transportand SP500: Major Divergence ?
4) Technicals : SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?
5) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since April 6 ) as long as we stay between 2042 and 2083.5 on a daily close.


We are within a new downtrend channel that started on April 7 with 2061 as support and 2078 as resistance.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2043.5 as support and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 a downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2043.5 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay below 2085.5 or above 2043.5 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2085.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2043.5, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2065 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2065 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1997 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2065 and 2078.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 8 Rising Wedge ?
​​​I finally found the reason for the squeeze on April 6 on SP500 future:
Japanese investors put back their trade on after their year end in March...​

​​​​​​​​We did close above 2061 on April 6, triggering the Neutral Stance...
I think we will range trade til mid-month; 2042 to 2083 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2042 as
​support and 2083.5 as resistance.
​​
​But the most interesting factor is that technical ​​pattern we have on the SP500 futures: a rising wedge that started back ​on February 2 with 2042 as support and 2105 as resistance - see 1rst chart below - red lines.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2042, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​
Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​3) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​4) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​5) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2083.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2064 to 2083.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: DJ Transportand SP500: Major Divergence ?
4) Technicals : SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Rising Wedge ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since April 6 ) as long as we stay between 2042 and 2083.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2042 as support and 2083.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 a downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Rising Wedge​ that started back on February 2 with 2042 support and 2105 as resistance. .

​We need to stay below 2083.5 or above 2042 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2105...

​​Only a daily close below 2042, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2064 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2064 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1997 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2064 and 2083.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Apr 7  Neutral Stance ?
​​​​Well, yesterday was quite a revenge for Bulls; from pre-opening low to the
​peak level, more than 40 figures on E-Mini SP500. I rarely seen that and
I am quite puzzled about it then turning in Neutral Stance for now...

​​​​​​​​We did close above 2061 on April 6, triggering the Neutral Stance...
I think we will range trade til mid-month; 2040 to 2080 kind of...​
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2041 as support and 2082 as resistance.
​​
​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2082 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2107...

​​Only a daily close below 2041, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​

Dow Jones Transport Index Broke a Major Support Trendline and create a Major Divergence with SP500.
That is what puzzle me the most...​ See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On April 6, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2064.3
​​2) ​On April 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063
​​​​​3) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​4) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​5) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​6) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1




​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2082.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2064 to 2082.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: DJ Transportand SP500: Major Divergence ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 1 ) as long as we stay below 2065.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on April 1 with 2041 as support and 2082 as resistance.

​​We broke on April 6 a downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on April 6 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2068.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2053.5 MAX 2041.

​We need to stay below 2082 or above 2041 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2082 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2089 MAX 2107...

​​Only a daily close below 2041, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2033 MAX 2013.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2063.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2063.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1996 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2064 and 2082.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 6 Near March Bottom ?
​Not much have changed for me since last Thursday. We are still into
that downtrend channel.​

​​​​We did close below 2059 on April 1, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​No double bottom in place ( short term ) as we did 2033.25 lows on March
​26 and 2033.5 lows on April 1; because of a daily close below 2059.

​​​​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2059, ( it did on April 1 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2041 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2061 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2077 MAX 2082...

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance.
​​
​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. Broken on April 1, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1995 - the 200 DMA...

Dow Jones Transport Index is near a Major Support Trendline, and IF broken, can lead us to a big bear wave in April - See link below.​

​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​2) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​3) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1
5) On March 27: ​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
6) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​7) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2033.5 and next big resistance trendline is the 20 DMA at 2064.5.​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2054.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
4) Big Picture: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?
6) Macro Outlook: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
7) Macro Technicals: DJ Transport: Near the Precipice ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 1 ) as long as we stay below 2065.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2022 as support and 2061 as resistance

​​We broke on April 1 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2061 as support and 2088 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another support trendline on April 1 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. broken on April 1, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay below 2061 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2059, ( it did on April 1 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2041 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2061 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2064.5 MAX 2077...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2063 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2063 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 15..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1994 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2033 and 2054.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Apr 2 Still Into that New Channel ?
​​​​​We did close below 2059 on April 1, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​No double bottom in place ( short term ) as we did 2033.25 lows on March
​26 and 2033.5 lows on April 1; because of a daily cloase below 2059.

​​​Seasonals were wrong this year because of that Greek Headline.
​Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 9.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2059, ( it did on April 1 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2041 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2065.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2077 MAX 2082...

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2028 as support and 2065.5 as resistance.
​​
​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. Broken on April 1, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1993 - the 200 DMA...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​​​1) ​On April 1, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2061.1
​2) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​3) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​4) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1
5) On March 27: ​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
6) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​7) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2033.5 and next big resistance trendline is the 20 DMA at 2066... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2061.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
4) Big Picture: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?
6) Macro Outlook: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since April 1 ) as long as we stay below 2065.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2028 as support and 2065.5 as resistance

​​We broke on April 1 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2061 as support and 2088 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another support trendline on April 1 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. broken on April 1, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay below 2065.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2059, ( it did on April 1 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2041 MAX 2033.5.

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2065.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2077 MAX 2082...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2062 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2062 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade trend til April 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1993 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2033 and 2061.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Apr 1  A New Channel ?

​​​​As expected, ​​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..
​​We did close above 2058 on March 30, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​

Quite surprise of the last 30 minutes of trading in the E-Mini which lost
almost 12 points; ​In the Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing​​, I was in favor
of ​stocks over bonds on March 31 in terms of rebalancing near the closing trading session.​

We could have a double bottom in place ( short term ) as we did 2033.25 lows on March 26 and 2033.5 lows on April 1; we will have to follow that...​ We need to close above 2059 absolutely today to stay Bullish...
​​
​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2058 ( it did on March 30 )will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2093.5...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2059, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2041 MAX 2033.5.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2033.5 as support and 2071 as resistance.
​​
​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1993 - the 200 DMA...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On March 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2069.7
​2) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​3) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1
4) On March 27: ​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
5) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​6) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline is the 20 DMA at 2069... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2068.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
4) Big Picture: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?
6) Macro Outlook: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 30 ) as long as we stay above 2059 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 30 with 2033.5 as support and 2071 as resistance

​​We broke on April 1 an uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2061 as support and 2088 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2059. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay above 2059 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​IF 2058 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 31 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080.5 MAX 2093.5 for now.

​​IF 2059 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2041 MAX 2033.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2061 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2061 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1993 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2033 and 2068.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 31  Month End ?

​​​​As expected, ​​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..
​​We did close above 2058 on March 30, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​


Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing​​
Already at month month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at ​-0.87% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.60%. So favor stocks over bonds on March 31
in terms of rebalancing near the closinf trading session.​

​​
​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2058 ( it did on March 30 )will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2093.5...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2060, will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2053.5 MAX 2042.5.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2055 as support and 2080.5 as resistance.
​​
​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2057. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990 - the 200 DMA...


​​​​Some Comments:​

​1) ​On March 30, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2071.2
​​2) ​On March 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2058.1
3) On March 27: ​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
4) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​5) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​



​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2057 and next big resistance trendline is the old uptrend channel at 2093.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2060 to 2085.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
4) Big Picture: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 30 ) as long as we stay above 2060 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2055 as support and 2080.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2057. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay above 2060 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​​​​​IF 2058 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 31 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080.5 MAX 2093.5 for now.

​​IF 2060 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2053.5 MAX 2042.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2060 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2060 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1992 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2060 and 2085.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Mar 30 Japanese Year End Impact Over ?

​​As expected, for the Japanese Year End Financial Pearl Harbor and
​Seasonalities are turning from a Bear stance to a Bull stance from March 28:​
​​We did close below 2090.5 on March 24, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​
​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2047 as support and 2077 as resistance.
​​
​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2055. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990 - the 200 DMA...


​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2058 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2071 MAX 2077...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5, ( it did on March 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​

1) On March 27: ​Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​
2) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​3) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​
​4) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.7​
5) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
6) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​


​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2055 and next big resistance trendline is the 20 DMA at 2071... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2047 to 2071.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
4) Big Picture: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 24 ) as long as we stay below 2058 on a daily close.


We are within a new uptrend channel that started on March 26 with 2047 as support and 2077 as resistance.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on March 25 with 2027 as support and 2064 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2055. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay below 2058 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 24 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​IF 2058 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2071 MAX 2077 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2058 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2058 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a Bull Trade trend til April 2..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1991 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2047 and 2071.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Mar 27  Follow The Channel ?

​​​​As expected, for the Japanese Year End Financial Pearl Harbor :​
​​We did close below 2090.5 on March 24, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​​til March 26 and reversing for profit taking for the end of Japanese Year:
​The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial
​Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 1 week
​earlier from month end are the window dressing process where rapatriation
​of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. See Link Below

But this year could start earlier than usual as the shift in Dollar/Yen have been huge this year...​
​Seasonals are turning in a painful Bear Trade trend til March 28..​​​​​​​​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2052.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990 - the 200 DMA...

Volatility still do not reflect Market Fear and Unusual Behavior from Financials - See Link Below.
​​
Observe that my Trendicator have not been that high ever, indicating a risk / reward not interesting to be long equities and usually associated with near reversal trading pattern - See Link Below - Daily Trendicator...

Also, Small Speculators are the longest ever on E-Mini SP500 - See Link Below

​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2043.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2057 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2068.5 MAX 2076...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5, ( it did on March 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​2) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​
​3) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.7​
4) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
5) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
6) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
7) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​8) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the March 11 low at 2030.5 and next big resistance trendline is the 50 DMA at 2057... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2057.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Eight factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
5) Market Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
6) End of the Year for Japanese Banks: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
7) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
8) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
9) Financials: SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 24 ) as long as we stay below 2057 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 25 with 2027 as support and 2064 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 24 an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2082 as support and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2052.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay below 2057 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 24 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​IF 2057 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2064 MAX 2073.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2057 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2057 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Bear Trade trend til March 28..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1990 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2033 and 2057.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Mar 26  A Financial Pearl Harbor ?

​​​​As expected, for the Japanese Year End:​
​​We did close below 2090.5 on March 24, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​​til March 26 and reversing for profit taking for the end of Japanese Year:
​The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial
​Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 1 week
​earlier from month end are the window dressing process where rapatriation
​of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. See Link Below

But this year could start earlier than usual as the shift in Dollar/Yen have been huge this year...​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

​​​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2050. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990 - the 200 DMA...

Volatility still do not reflect Market Fear - See Link Below.
​​
Observe that my Trendicator have not been that high ever, indicating a risk / reward not interesting to be long equities and usually associated with near reversal trading pattern - See Link Below - Daily Trendicator...

Also, Small Speculators are the longest ever on E-Mini SP500 - See Link Below

​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2043.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2056.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2068.5 MAX 2076...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5, ( it did on March 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) ​On March 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2078.5
​​2) ​On March 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.5​
​3) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2055.7​
4) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
5) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
6) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
7) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​8) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​9) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
10) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​11) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2110... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2030 to 2056.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Eight factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
5) Market Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
6) End of the Year for Japanese Banks: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
7) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
8) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 24 ) as long as we stay below 2099.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 25 with 2039.5 as support and 2076 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 24 an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2082 as support and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2050. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2012 MAX 1990.

​We need to stay below 2056.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 24 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​IF 2056.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2068.5 MAX 2076 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2056.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1990 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2030 and 2056.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 25  Transition to Japanese Turmoil ?

​​​As expected, for the Japanses Year End:​
​​We did close below 2090.5 on March 24, triggering the Bear Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​​til March 26 and reversing for profit taking for the end of Japanese Year:
​The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial
​Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 1 week
​earlier from month end are the window dressing process where rapatriation
​of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. See Link Below

But this year could start earlier than usual as the shift in Dollar/Yen have been huge this year...​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

Observe that my Trendicator have not been that high ever, indicating a risk / reward not interesting to be long equities and usually associated with near reversal trading pattern - See Link Below - Daily Trendicator...

Also, Small Speculators are the longest ever on E-Mini SP500 - See Link Below

​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2043.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2099.5 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2107 MAX 2118...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5, ( it did on March 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2110... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2078 to 2099.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
5) Market Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
6) End of the Year for Japanese Banks: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
7) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 24 ) as long as we stay below 2099.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 23 with 2075.5 as support and 2094.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 24 an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2082 as support and 2118.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2048. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1988.

​We need to stay below 2090.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 24 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​IF 2099.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2107 MAX 2118 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2055.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2055.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1989 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2078 and 2099.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 24  Near Reversal ?

​​​​
​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​​til March 26 and reversing for profit taking for the end of Japanese Year:
​The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial
​Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 1 week
​earlier from month end are the window dressing process where rapatriation
​of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. See Link Below

But this year could start earlier than usual as the shift in Dollar/Yen have been huge this year...​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

Observe that my Trendicator have not been that high ever, indicating a risk / reward not interesting to be long equities and usually associated with near reversal trading pattern - See Link Below - Daily Trendicator...

Also, Small Speculators are the longest ever on E-Mini SP500 - See Link Below

​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2043.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2110 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2126.5...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2110... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2082 to 2106.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
5) Market Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
6) End of the Year for Japanese Banks: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
7) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2090.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2082 as support and 2118.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2046. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1988.

​We need to stay above 2090.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080 MAX 2096 for now ( Reached on March 18 )...

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2054.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2054.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1989 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2082 and 2106.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Mar 23 Japanese Turmoil ?

​​​​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​​til March 26 and reversing for profit taking for the end of Japanese Year:
​The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial
​Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 1 week
​earlier from month end are the window dressing process where rapatriation
​of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. See Link Below

But this year could start earlier than usual as the shift in Dollar/Yen have been huge this year...​
​Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​


Also, Small Speculators are the longest ever on E-Mini SP500 - See Link Below


​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2043.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2110 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2118 MAX 2126.5...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2075.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2053.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2110... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2083 to 2106.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
5) Market Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
6) End of the Year for Japanese Banks: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2090.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2075.5 as support and 2111.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2043.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1988.

​We need to stay above 2090.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080 MAX 2096 for now ( Reached on March 18 )...

​​IF 2090.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2082.5 MAX 2075.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2053.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2053.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1985 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2083 and 2106.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 20  Testing the 20 DMA ?

​​​Now switch to June Contract M5

​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​


Yesterday I wrote: We did reach yesterday the Bull Impulse of 2096 -
​expect a correction to 2080....​​ It did trade as low as 2076.5...

Not much have changed for me since yesterday:​ ​​Next big challenge for Bulls is to stay above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2080...​​
​​​
​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites ​til March 26.

Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​


Volune activity is weakening as we are near the all time high on SP500 - See Link Below


​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2039 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2100 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2107.5 MAX 2110...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2079 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2063.5 MAX 2053.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2077 to 2099.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?
4) Volume : SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2079 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2068 as support and 2104.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2041. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1986.

​We need to stay above 2079 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080 MAX 2096 for now ( Reached on March 18 )...

​​IF 2079 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2063.5 MAX 2053.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2051.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2051.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1985 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2077 and 2099.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 19 Dovish FED again ?

​​​​​
Now switch to June Contract M5

​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​til March 26.

Yesterday s FOMC was quite dovish espeicially in terms of economic forecats and especially in Appropriate pace of policy firming: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate: ​
​FED Economic Projections

Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

Next big challenge for Bulls is to stay above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2080...​​

We did reach yesterday the Bull Impulse of 2096 - expect a correction to 2080....​​



​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2039 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2100 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2107.5 MAX 2110...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2079 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2063.5 MAX 2053.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2077 to 2099.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2079 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 16 with 2060 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​We are still taking into account an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with 2039 as support and 2079 as resistance.
​​
​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2053.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2053.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2039. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1986.

​We need to stay above 2079 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080 MAX 2096 for now ( Reached on March 18 )...

​​IF 2079 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2063.5 MAX 2053.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2050 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2050 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1985 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2077 and 2099.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Mar 18 FOMC Risk ?

​​​​Now switch to June Contract M5

​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​til March 26.

Today s FOMC meeting is a big risk for the market : ​
​The Fed will Likely Remove 'Patient' from its Statement, But Not from its Actions

Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

Next big challenge for Bulls is to break the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2080...​​

And big picture, techncially speaking is getting weaker according to the SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail - see link below...

​​​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2036.5 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1985. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2080 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2096 MAX 2107...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2053.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2047.5 MAX 2036.5.


​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2037 to 2080.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Weak Technicals: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Divergence Prevail ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2053.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with 2037.5 as support and 2078 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2054 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2054. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2036.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2019.5 MAX 1984.

​We need to stay above 2053.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2080 MAX 2096 for now...

​​IF 2053.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2047.5 MAX 2034 for now.

​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2048 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2048 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1985 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2037 and 2080.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 17  The Grinder ?

​​​​​
Now switch to June Contract M5

​​We did close above 2063.5 on March 15, triggering the Bull Stance...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...​

​​Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites
​til March 26.

Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

Next big challenge for Bulls is to break the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2081...​​

​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2034 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1984. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2076 will change that scenario to another bull impulse toward 2081 MAX 2096...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2053.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2047.5 MAX 2034.



​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2058 to 2076.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since March 16 ) as long as we stay above 2053.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with 2036 as support and 2076 as resistance.

​​

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2054 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2054. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2034. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 20019.5 MAX 1984.

​We need to stay above 2053.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode.

​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 16 ) then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2076 MAX 2081 for now...

​​IF 205.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2047.5 MAX 2034 for now.

​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2047.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2047.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1983 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2058 and 2076.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 16 Still into the Channel ?

​​​​Now switch to June Contract M5

​​We did close at 2064 on March 12 on EDH5, triggering the Neutral Stance...

​​Last Friday I wrote on H5 contrac levels: ​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2055
​will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2038.
We did have in the same day reached the Bearish impulse.​

Now we are into a grinding pattern according to the seasonalites til March 26.
Expect choppy daily trading sessions til the end of the month...​

​Also: ​SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline : A Major Support Trendline​​ that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2032 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1983. See third chart below
​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 2063.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2032 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2019.5 MAX 1983.


Financials are Testing a Major Support Trendline - See Link Below...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is Fading Quickly - See Link Below...

​​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2037 to 2060.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since March 12 ) as long as we stay between 2032 and 2063.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on March 12 with 2034.5 as support and 2063.5 as resistance.

​​

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2054 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2054. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2032. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 20019.5 MAX 1983.

​We need to stay between 2032 and 2063.5 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​IF 2032 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2019.5 MAX 1983 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2074 MAX 2082...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2047 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2047 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 26..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1983 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2037 and 2060.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 13 Dead Cat Bounce Completed ?

​​We did close at 2064 on March 12, triggering the Neutral Stance...

​​Yesterday I wrote: I expect a dead cat bounce towards the 50 DMA at
​2055.7 MAX 2064 and ​resume downtrend...​​​

Having closed at the upper level of my range makes me turn neutral for now​​


​​​​Only a daily close above 2084 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2055 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2038.


Financials are Testing a Major Support Trendline - See Link Below...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is Fading Quickly - See Link Below...

​​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) ​On March 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average then at 2055.7​
2) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
3) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
4) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
5) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​7) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
8) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​9) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2055 and next big resistance trendline at 2085... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2055 to 2078.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Neutral Trade mode ( since March 12 ) as long as we stay between 2055 and 2085 on a daily close.

​​
We broke on March 12 a downtrend channel that started on March 6 with 2012.5 as support and 2052 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 10 a downtrend channel that started on March 3 ​with 2057 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 6 a downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2064 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2035.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2007 MAX 1989.

​We need to stay between 2055 and 2085 for that Neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode.

​​IF 2055 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2038 MAX 2007 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2085 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2091 MAX 2108.5...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2055 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2055 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1989 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2055 and 2078.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 12  Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​​​We did close below 2093 on March 6, triggering the Bear Signal...

​​On March 10, We broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2056.5
and now at 2055.7.

I expect a dead cat bounce towards the 50 DMA at 2055.7 MAX 2064 and
​resume downtrend...​​​

I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2035.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2007 MAX 1989. See 2nd chart below.
​​

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2064 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2035.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​1989 MAX.


Financials are Testing a Major Support Trendline - See Link Below...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is Fading Quickly - See Link Below...

​​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
2) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
3) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
4) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​6) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
7) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2057 and next big resistance trendline at 2091.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2038 to 2064.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Long Term Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
5) Short Term Indicator: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Short Term Oversold ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 6 ) as long as we stay below 2064 on a daily close.

​​
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 6 with 2012.5 as support and 2052 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 10 a downtrend channel that started on March 3 ​with 2057 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 6 a downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2064 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​I must start to watch a Major Support Trendline​ that started back on October 15 1014 and now stand at 2035.5. IF broken, I expect another nasty bear move towards 2007 MAX 1989.

​We need to stay below 2064 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2093 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 6 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2036.5 MAX 2020.5 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2064 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2078 MAX 2092.5...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2056 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1989 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2038 and 2064.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 11 Trendline Broken ?

​​​​We did close below 2093 on March 6, triggering the Bear Signal...

​​Yesterday I wrote:
​The next Big trigger can be IF we break ​​a Major Support Trendline that
​started on January 9 now at 2064 ( Was the Previous Break Out Trendline ) :
​If so, we will shift to a nasty bear Trend from a Bear Stance...

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 6
​with 2027 as support and 2064 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2064 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2036.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2020.5 MAX.


Financials are Testing a Major Support Trendline - See Link Below...

​​​Risk Taking Behavior is Fading Quickly - See Link Below...

​​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) On March 10 we broke ​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064
2) ​On March 10, we broke the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2057.3​
3) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
4) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​6) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
7) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2057 and next big resistance trendline at 2091.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2042 to 2064.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
5) Long Term Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
6) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?
7) Financials : SP500 Financials Weekly: Weekly Uptrend Channel in Jeopardy ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 6 ) as long as we stay below 2064 on a daily close.

​​
We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 6 with 2027 as support and 2064 as resistance.

​​We broke on March 10 a downtrend channel that started on March 3 ​with 2057 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 6 a downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on March 10 that started on January 9 with 2064 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2064 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2093 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 6 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2036.5 MAX 2020.5 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2064 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2078 MAX 2092.5...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2056.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1988 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2042 and 2064.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Mar 10  - Watch the Previous Break Out Trendline ?

​​We did close below 2093 on March 6, triggering the Bear Signal...

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 3
​with 2057 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2091.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2064 will give us another Bearish Impulse to
​2036.5 MAX.

The next Big trigger can be IF we break ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 now at 2064 ( Was the Previous Break Out Trendline ) : If so, we will shift to a nasty bear Trend from a Bear Stance...

​Risk Taking Behavior is Fading Quickly - See Link Below...

​​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
2) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​3) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​4) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
5) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​6) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​7) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
8) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
9) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​10) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2057 and next big resistance trendline at 2091.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2057 to 2080.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Eight factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?
5) Volatility:​ SP500 Financials HVol: Low HVOL and near the 50 DMA ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
7) Long Term Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
8) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Fading ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 6 ) as long as we stay below 2091.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 3 ​with 2057 as support and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 6 a downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2091.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2093 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 6 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2064 and IF 2064 is broken then MAX 2036.5 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2091.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2100.5 MAX 2118...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2057 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2057 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1987 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2057 and 2080.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 9 Near Previous Break Out Trendline ?

​​We did close below 2093 on March 6, triggering the Bear Signal...

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 3
​with 2061 as support and 2099.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2091.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2064 will give us another Bearish Impulse to
​2036.5 MAX.

The next Big trigger can be IF we break ​​a Major Support Trendline that started on January 9 ( Was the Previous Break Out Trendline ) : If so, we will shift to a nasty bear Trend from a Bear Stance...

​A Macro Bear Signal was triggered on March 6 by the NYSE Summation Index - See Link Below...

Observe also that we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2090.4 on March 6...​​

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​Optimism in the Market is very high as shown by the Nasdaq100 BPI - See Link Below.​​

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) On March 6, we broke the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average then at 2090.4​
2) On March 6, we broke the downtrend channel support t​hat started on February 25 then at 2093
​​​​​3) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Grind Phase til March 17.
​4) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
5) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​6) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​7) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
8) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
9) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​10) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2057 and next big resistance trendline at 2091.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2057 to 2085.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?
5) Volatility:​ SP500 Financials HVol: Low HVOL and near the 50 DMA ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
7) Long Term Indicator: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since March 6 ) as long as we stay below 2091.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on March 3 ​with 2061 as support and 2099.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on March 6 a downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another resistance trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2091.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2093 break down on a daily close, ( it did on March 6 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2064 MAX 2057 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2091.5 break up on a daily close, then back to the Bull Mode for now: 2100.5 MAX 2118...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2057 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2057 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Grind Trade trend til March 17..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1986 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2057 and 2085.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
Mar 6  NFP s Day but Still Follow the Channel


​​​We did close above 2111.5 on March 2, cancelling the Bear Signal...

​​The Market is now in a Range Trade Phase til March 9; Usual Pattern as ​​the ​
​Seasonals Factor Kicks In.I then expect a tough market to trade til March 9..
​​
​Non Farm Payroll today - I ll give Macro Levels on the intraday later...
We must Follow that Downward Channel...​
​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on February 25
​with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2112.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2093 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2056.5 MAX.

The ​​VIX/GOLD correlation getting at the -0.60 zone on March 5 and ​VIX ​still near 14, indicating higher volatility ahead... See Link Below...

Observe also that we are getting near the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2090.4...​​

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​Optimism in the Market is very high as shown by the Nasdaq100 BPI - See Link Below.​​

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​2) Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade Phase til March 9.
3) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​5) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
6) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
7) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2054 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2085 to 2113.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?
5) Volatility:​ SP500 Financials HVol: Low HVOL and near the 50 DMA ?
6) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Range Trade mode ( since March 2 ) as long as we stay between 2093 and 2112.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093 as support and 2112.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2112.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2011.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 2 ) then RANGE TRADE for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2057.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2057.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Range Trade trend til March 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1985 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2085 and 2113.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
Mar 5  Still Follow the Channel

​​​​We did close above 2111.5 on March 2, cancelling the Bear Signal...

​​The Market is now in a Range Trade Phase til March 9; Usual Pattern as ​
​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In...
I then expect a tough market to trade til March 9...​
​​
I rarely do that, but a little puzzled here​ and I will turn Neutral, waiting
​clearer technicals signs on the market... Risk are tilted on the downside...

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093.5 as support and 2113 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2113 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2093.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2056.5 MAX.

SP500 Financials Historical Volatility gives us another warning on that market. See Link Below.

​​Optimism in the Market is very high as shown by the Nasdaq100 BPI - See Link Below.​​

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​2) Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade Phase til March 9.
3) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​5) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
6) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
7) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2054 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2087 to 2105.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
4) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?
5) Volatility:​ SP500 Financials HVol: Low HVOL and near the 50 DMA ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Range Trade mode ( since March 2 ) as long as we stay between 2093.5 and 2113 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2093.5 as support and 2113 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2113 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2011.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 2 ) then RANGE TRADE for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2056.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Range Trade trend til March 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1982 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2087 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Mar 4  Follow the Channel

​​​​We did close above 2111.5 on March 2, cancelling the Bear Signal...

​​The Market is now in a Range Trade Phase til March 9; Usual Pattern as ​
​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In...
I then expect a tough market to trade til March 9...​
​​
I rarely do that, but a little puzzled here​ and I will turn Neutral, waiting
​clearer technicals signs on the market... Risk are tilted on the downside...

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2098 as support and 2113.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2113.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2098 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2056 MAX.

Optimism in the Market is very high as shown by the Nasdaq100 BPI - See Link Below.​​

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​2) Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade Phase til March 9.
3) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​5) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
6) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
7) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2054 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2095 to 2113.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Short Term Indicator: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
5) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
6) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Range Trade mode ( since March 2 ) as long as we stay between 2098 and 2113.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2098 as support and 2113.5 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2113.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2011.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on March 2 ) then RANGE TRADE for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2056 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Range Trade trend til March 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1982 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2095 and 2113.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 3  Still Range Trade Market

​​​​​
We did close above 2111.5 on March 2, cancelling the Bear Signal...

​​The Market is now in a Range Trade Phase til March 9; Usual Pattern as ​
​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In...
I then expect a tough market to trade til March 9...​
​​
I rarely do that, but a little puzzled here​ and I will turn Neutral, waiting
​clearer technicals signs on the market...

​​
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2115 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2099 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2056 MAX.

Optimism in the Market is very as shown by the Nasdaq100 BPI - See Link Below.​​

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​2) Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade Phase til March 9.
3) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​5) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
6) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
7) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2054 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2099 to 2115.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Short Term Indicator: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
5) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?
6) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: A Lot of Optimism ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Range Trade mode ( since March 2 ) as long as we stay between 2099 and 2115 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2099 as support and 2115 as resistance.

​​​​​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2111.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2011.5 break up on a daily close, ( ie did on March 2 ) then RANGE TRADE for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2056 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2056 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Range Trade trend til March 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1982 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2099 and 2115.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Mar 2 Range Trade Market

​​On Feb 27 I wrote:​
​Already at month end. We should expect some asset mix rebalancing
as the ​performance for this month as of February 26 is for:
​- IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 Years Treasury Bond Fund ) is -2.82%
​- SP500 Index is at +5.80%
For me, the market has already lost its Bullish Momentum...​​

​​ ​​We did close below 2107.5 on Feb 27 then triggering the Bearish stance here...

​​The Market is now in a Range Trade Phase til March 9; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In
I then expect a tough market to trade til March 9...​

​​We must stay for today below 2111.5 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2111.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2081 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2054 MAX.

A Long Term Indicator, The Dow Theory is Still Flashing a Warning - See Link Below...​​
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Range Trade. - See Link Below
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support
​​​​2) Seasonals are turning in a Range Trade Phase til March 9.
3) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​5) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
6) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
7) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2054 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2111.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Short Term Indicator: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
5) Long Term Indicator: DJ Transport and Industrials Ratio: A Warning from the Dow Theory ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since February 27 ) as long as we stay below 2111.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on February 25 with 2095.5 as support and 2111.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on February 27 an uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support and 2126 as resistance.

​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2111.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be back with a Bull trend.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​IF 2011.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2118 MAX 2129 as targets for now.


​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2054 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2054 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Range Trade trend til March 9..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1981 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2111.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​Feb 27 Month End Experiment - Final Phase


​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Already at month end. We should expect some asset mix rebalancing
as the ​performance for this month as of February 26 is for:
​- IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 Years Treasury Bond Fund ) is -2.82%
​- SP500 Index is at +5.80%

For me, tha market has already lost its Bullish Momentum...​​

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In

​​We must stay for today above 2107.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2107.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2117.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2131 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​​​1) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3.
2) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​3) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​4) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
5) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
6) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2051 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2114.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Short Term Indicator: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2107.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2107.5 as support and 2126 as resistance.

​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2107.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2122.5 MAX 2131 as targets for now.

​​IF 2107.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2051 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2051 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til March 3..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1980 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2114.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
Feb 26 Month End Experiment

​​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Almost at month end. We should expect some asset mix rebalancing
as the ​performance for this month as of February 25 is for:
​- IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 Years Treasury Bond Fund ) is -2.24%
​- SP500 Index is at +5.96%

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

We must stay for today above 2104.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2104.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2122.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2136 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​​​1) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3.
2) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​3) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​4) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
5) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
6) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2048.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2122.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2122.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
4) Short Term Indicator: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2104.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2104.5 as support and 2122.5 as resistance.

We have also a resistance trendline that started on February 10 with 2139 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2104.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2122.5 MAX 2139 as targets for now.

​​IF 2104.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2048.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2048.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til March 3..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1979 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2122.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Feb 25 Complacent Market ?

​​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since the past week: I think Bulls are
​starting ​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of
​consolidation...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

The market is totally Complacent at this level as shown by the VIX Index. - See Link Below.

​​The Ratio of the Percentage of Stocks of the Mighty SP500 Index Above the 50 day moving average over the 200 day moving average ( Raio ) is on a rise with a new high in price for the SP500. That Indicator is within the Overbought Zone as we getting near the level reached on previous turning points for the market ( Downward ). See Link Below.

We must stay for today above 2102 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2102 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2119.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2136 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​​​1) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3.
2) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​3) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​4) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
5) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
6) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2044.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2119.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2081 to 2119.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Indicator: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Overbought Zone ?
4) Volatility: VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2102 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 13 with 2102 as support and 2119.5 as resistance.

We have also a resistance trendline that started on February 10 with 2131 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on February 11 that started on January 9 with 2062.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2064. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2102 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2119.5 MAX 2136 as targets for now.

​​IF 2102 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2046.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2046.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til March 3..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1977 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2081 and 2119.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Feb 24 Still Very Close to Reversal ?


​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since the past week: I think Bulls are
​starting ​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of
​consolidation...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

The Ratio of the Percentage of Stocks of the Mighty SP500 Index Above the 50 day moving average over the 200 day moving average ( Raio ) is on a rise with a new high in price for the SP500. That Indicator is within the Overbought Zone as we getting near the level reached on previous turning points for the market ( Downward ). See Link Below.

We must stay for today above 2100.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2100.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2113.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2131 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​​​1) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3.
2) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​3) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​4) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
5) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
6) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2044.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2119.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2113.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Indicator: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Overbought Zone ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2100.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2100.5 as support and 2137 as resistance.

We have also a resistance trendline that started on February 10 with 2119 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2040.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2100.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2113.5 MAX 2126.5 as targets for now.

​​IF 2100.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2044.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2044.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til March 3..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1976 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2113.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
Feb 23 Very Close to Reversal ?


​​​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since the past week: I think Bulls are
​starting ​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of
​consolidation...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

The Information Technology weighting within the SPDR SP500 ETF is ​19.93% and Apple Shares are 4.05%.
So Following those two can let us know when we will have that correction... See Link Below​

​​The Volume on E-Mini SP500 is anemic, nothing to convince me of a strong market - See Link Below.

​​SP500 Index Bull% Index is now into Overbought Zone. See Link Below.​
​​PVT​​ ( Price Volume Trend of the SP500 ) : And we have a lower PVT today than the last upleg peak
​on December 29; the divergence prevail... See Link Below.​

​​Macro Valuation are still sending warnings. The ratio Stocks to Bonds continue its Divergence since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​
See Link Below.​

We must stay for today above 2095 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2095 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2113.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2131 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​​​1) Seasonals are turning in a Slow Bleed Phase til March 3.
2) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​3) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​4) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
5) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
6) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2040.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2113.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
4) Strenght of the Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
5) Short Term Indicator: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Too Bullish ?
6) No Volume: SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 24% ?
7) The Overbullish Sentiment: SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - AAPL ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2095 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2095 as support and 2132 as resistance.

We have also a support trendline that started on February 10 with 2104 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2040.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2095 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2104 MAX 2126.5 as targets for now.

​​IF 2095 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2080.5 MAX 2064 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2041.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2041.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til March 3..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1973 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2113.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
Feb 20 Still Near Reversal ?

​​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since the past 2 days: I think Bulls are
​starting ​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of
​consolidation...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til February 23; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

The Volume on E-Mini SP500 is anemic, nothing to convince me of a strong market - See Link Below.

​​SP500 Index Bull% Index is now into Overbought Zone. See Link Below.​
​​PVT​​ ( Price Volume Trend of the SP500 ) : And we have a lower PVT today than the last upleg peak
​on December 29; the divergence prevail... See Link Below.​

​​Macro Valuation are still sending warnings. The ratio Stocks to Bonds continue its Divergence since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​
See Link Below.​

We must stay for today above 2094 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2087 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2114.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2131 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2040.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2104.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
4) Strenght of the Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
5) Short Term Indicator: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Too Bullish ?
6) No Volume: SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 24% ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2094 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2087 as support and 2123.5 as resistance.

We have also a support trendline that started on February 10 with 2104 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes supportat 2036.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2087 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2104 MAX 2123.5 as targets for now.

​​IF 2087 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2080 MAX 2063.5 for now.

​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2040.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2040.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til February 23..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1972 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2104.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Feb 19 Near Reversal ?


​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since the past 2 days: I think Bulls are
​starting ​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of
​consolidation... Even the dovish FOMC minutes failed to bring a new high...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til February 23; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

SP500 Index Bull% Index is now into Overbought Zone. See Link Below.​

​​PVT​​ ( Price Volume Trend of the SP500 ) : And we have a lower PVT today than the last upleg peak
​on December 29; the divergence prevail... See Link Below.​

​​Macro Valuation are still sending warnings. The ratio Stocks to Bonds continue its Divergence since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​
See Link Below.​

We must stay for today above 2094 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2094 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2117.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2130 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2040.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2117.5... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2100.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
4) Strenght of the Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
5) Short Term Indicator: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Too Bullish ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2094 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2081 as support and 2117.5 as resistance.

We have also a support trendline that started on February 10 with 2094 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes supportat 2036.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2094 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2099 MAX 2117.5 as targets for now.

​​IF 2094 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2081 MAX 2063 for now.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2040.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2040.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til February 23..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1972 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2100.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
Feb 18 Bulls are Pushing Their Luck ?

​​​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

Not much have changed fro me since yesterday: I think Bulls are starting
​to push their luck at those levels, we need some kind of consolidation...

​​The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til February 23; Usual Pattern as ​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​

PVT​​ ( Price Volume Trend of the SP500 ) : And we have a lower PVT today than the last upleg peak
​on December 29; the divergence prevail... See Link Below.​

​​Macro Valuation are still sending warnings. The ratio Stocks to Bonds continue its Divergence since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​
See Link Below.​

We must stay for today above 2085.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2085.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2111 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2130 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​
​Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2038.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2104... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2100.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
4) Strenght of the Market: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2085.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2074 as support and 2111 as resistance.

We have also a support trendline that started on February 10 with 2085.5 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2033.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2085.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2099 MAX 2111 as targets for now.

​​IF 2085.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2063 MAX 2040 for now.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2040 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2040 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til February 23..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1971 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2100.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Feb 17 Seasonalities - A Slow Bleed ?

​​On Feb 10 I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

The Market is now in a Slow Bleed Phase til February 23; Usual Pattern as
​the ​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. ​​
​​
Macro Valuation are still sending warnings. The ratio Stocks to Bonds continue its Divergence since June 2014 as the Ratio is making lower highs and lower lows but the SP500 continue to grind up.​​
See Link Below.​



We must stay for today above 2078 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2078 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2089 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2104 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in near the Overbought Conditions as Seasonalities also turn in a Slow Bleed. - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2038.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2104... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2078 to 2095.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Slow Bleed ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2078 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2067.5 as support and 2104 as resistance.

We have also a support trendline that started on February 10 with 2078 level.
​​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2033.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2078 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2089 MAX 2104 as targets for now.

​​IF 2078 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2063 MAX 2038.5 for now.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful Slow Bleed trend til February 23..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1968 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2078 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​Feb 13  Volume Declining ?

​​​​Yesterday I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11 then triggering the Bullish stance here...

The Market is in a grinding Phase til February 16; Usual Pattern as the
​Seasonals Factor Kicks In. BUT beware of a Friday the 13th before a long
​week endas holding risk is not a good thing. Volume on the E-Mini SP500 is
​in a decline as we make new highs, nothing to convince of a Strong Bull Move - See first chart below.​​
​​
​I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2 ​
​above the 200 DMA (XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16) and then becomes a
​must to follow - see links below ​Financials rebounded violently to close at 24.45 on February 12 and closed above the 50 DMA. It is still a must follow. See no 7 Factor Below.

Market Risk Profile tells me that the participants are not hedging with some protective options plays with the SP500 at that level.​ That is quite surprising because of the high uncertainties associated with international geo-political risks now...​​Risk taking behavior is rising with Small Speculators having their Longest
Position in E-Mini SP500 Since October 2014 - See links Below.​​​


We must stay for today above 2063 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2063 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2089 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2101 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2076 to 2093.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
4) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Stronger Risk Taking Behavior ?
5) Market position: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest since October 2014 ?
6) Market Risk Profile: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?
7) Financials: ​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Overbought Zone ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2063 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2060 as support and 2098 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2022. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2030. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2063 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2089 MAX 2101 as targets for now.

​​IF 2063 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2060 MAX 2038 for now.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2038 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2038 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1966 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2076 and 2093.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Feb 12 A Broken Triple Top Resistance ?

​​​​Yesterday I wrote:​
​We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​

​​We did close above 2063.5 on Feb 11then triggering the Bullish stance here...

​I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2 ​
​above the 200 DMA (XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16) and then becomes a
​must to follow - see links below ​Financials rebounded violently to close at 24.21 on February 11 and closed above the 50 DMA. It is still a must follow. See no 7 Factor Below.

Market Risk Profile tells me that the participants are not hedging with some protective options plays with the SP500 at that level.​ That is quite surprising because of the high uncertainties associated with international geo-political risks now...​​Risk taking behavior is rising with Small Speculators having their Longest
Position in E-Mini SP500 Since October 2014 - See links Below.​​​


We must stay for today above 2063 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2063 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2089 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2101 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke the triple top pattern on February 11 at 2063.5​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2063 to 2082.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
4) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Stronger Risk Taking Behavior ?
5) Market position: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest since October 2014 ?
6) Market Risk Profile: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?
7) Financials: ​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Overbought Zone ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 11 ) as long as we stay above 2063 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2045 as support and 2082.5 as resistance.

​​
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2022. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2030. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2063 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be back with a Bear trend.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 11 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2074.5 MAX 2088.5 as targets for now.

​​IF 2063 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2045 MAX 2037 for now.

​​​​
​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1966 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2063 and 2082.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

Feb 11  Near Triple Top Resistance ?

​​Yesterday I wrote:​
We did have a close below 2044.5 then bringing the Bear Case.
Conviction is low on that call: need a close today below the 50 DMA
​now at 2037 to confirm...​​

We did close above 2044.5 then triggering the neutral stance here...

We are challenging the triple top resistance trendline at 2063.5.​
​​
Market Risk Profile tells me that the participants are not hedging with some protective options plays with the SP500 at that level.​ That is quite surprising because of the high uncertainties associated with international geo-political risks now...​​Risk taking behavior is rising with Small Speculators having their Longest
Position in E-Mini SP500 Since October 2014 - See links Below.​​​

​​
I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA (XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 24.21 on February 10 and closed above the 50 DMA. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today below 2063.5 to stay Neutral, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2037 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2063.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2088.5 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Failed to break the triple top pattern on February 6 at 2063​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2044 to 2068.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
4) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Stronger Risk Taking Behavior ?
5) Market position: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest since October 2014 ?
6) Market Risk Profile: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: High VIX No SKEW ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since February 9 ) as long as we stay below 2063 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2037 as support and 2074.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021.5. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2027.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2063.5 for that neutral scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Neutral mode and will be seen as a bull trend.

​​​​IF 2037 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2027.5 MAX 2007 for now.

​​​​IF 2063.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2074.5 MAX 2088.5 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1967 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2044 and 2068.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
Feb 10  High Risk Taking - Low Conviction ?


​​​We did have a close below 2044.5 then bringing the Bear Case.
Conviction is low on that call: need a close today belo the 50 DMA now
at 2037 to confirm...​​

Risk taking behavior is rising with Small Speculators having their Longest
Position in E-Mini SP500 Since October 2014 - See links Below.​​​

​​​​​​​​​On February 9, we did close below the 2044.5 level, triggering the
​Bear ​Scenario.


I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA (XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 24.02 on February 9 and failed on the 50 DMA. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today below 2063 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2044.5 ( it did on February 9 )will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2063 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2088.5 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Failed to break the triple top pattern on February 6 at 2063​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2033 to 2052.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
4) Risk Behavior: SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Stronger Risk Taking Behavior ?
5) Market position: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest since October 2014 ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since February 9 ) as long as we stay below 2063 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2033 as support and 2069 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021.5. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2063 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bear mode and will be seen as a bull trend.

​​​​IF 2044.5 break down on a daily close, ( it did on February 9 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2037.5 MAX 2025 for now.

​​​​IF 2063 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2068 MAX 2088.5 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1967 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2033 and 2052.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​
Feb 9 Triple Top or Break Out; The Answer Is ?


​​​Last Friday I wrote:
Now the real challenge for Bulls is to break 2063 level - a potential Break
​Out or a Triple Top Pattern - See First Chart Below - Ellipses.​

It did trade as high as 2068 and tumbled; so a triple top to me as long as
we don t break 2063, Risk is to be back to the 20 DMA at 2025.
So for me, even if we did not have yet the reversal signal, we ve entered
already the correction phase ( confirm IF today s close below 2044.5 ).​​​​

​​​​​​​On February 2, we did close above the 2011 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

On February 3, we did close above the 50 DMA then at 2038, triggering the​bull move from the dead cat bounce.

I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA (XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 24.14 on February 6 and failed on the 50 DMA. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today above 2044.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2044.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2038 ( it did on February 2 )will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2063 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2063 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2088.5 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Failed to break the triple top pattern on February 6 at 2063​
​​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​3​) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
4) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
5) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​7) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2031 to 2050.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay above 2044.5 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2029 as support and 2066 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2018. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2044.5 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 2 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2047.5 MAX 2063 as targets for now.

​​​​IF 2044.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2037.5 MAX 2025 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1962 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2031 and 2050.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
Feb 6  Triple Top or Break Out ?


​​​​​Yesterday we did have a close above the 50 DMA - great.
Now the real challenge for Bulls is to break 2063 level - a potential Break
​Out or a Triple Top Pattern - See First Chart Below - Ellipses.​

​​​​​​​On February 2, we did close above the 2011 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

On February 3, we did close above the 50 DMA then at 2038, triggering the
​bull move from the dead cat bounce.

I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA ( XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16 ) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 23.95 on February 5. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today above 2046 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2046 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2038 ( it did on February 2 )will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2063 MAX.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2063 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2088.5 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​1) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​2) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
3) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
4) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2037.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2063... ​
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2046 to 2063.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Short term Indicator: ​ SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Overbought Zone ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay above 2046 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2023 as support and 2060 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2018. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2046 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 2 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2047.5 MAX 2063 as targets for now.

​​​​IF 2046 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2037.5 MAX 2023 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1962 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2046 and 2063.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Feb 5 Still the 50 DMA to Watch ?

​​Not Much have changed for me since yesterday but 1st test of the 50 DMA
and failed to stay above; need today a close above 2037.5​ for best
​technical set up. Unless will tell me that weaknesses is building as already
the Fear Gauge is rising - See Link Below.​

​​​​​​​On February 2, we did close above the 2011 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

On February 3, we did close above the 50 DMA then at 2038, triggering the
​bull move from the dead cat bounce. We are still playing around the 50 DMA.

I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA ( XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16 ) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 23.71 on February 4. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today above 2021 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2021 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2038 ( it did on February 2 )will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2062.5 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​​1) Broke the 50 DMA on the donwside on February 4 then at 2038
​2) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on February 3 then at 2020.5
3) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
4) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2021 and next big resistance trendline is the 50 DMA at 2049... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2021 to 2048.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Short term Indicator: ​SP500 Financials and VIX: A Fear Gauge Rising ?




Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay above 2021 on a daily close.

​​We are now within a new uptrend channel that started on February 3 with 2017 as support and 2054.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2018. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2021 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 2 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2047.5 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​​​IF 2021 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2007 MAX 1994.5 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2037.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2037.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1961 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2021 and 2048.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
Feb 4  50 DMA to Watch ?


​​​​​On my Back up internet this morning; Hope not losing it...

​​​​​On February 2, we did close above the 2011 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

On February 3, we did close above the 50 DMA then at 2038, triggering the
​ bull move from the dead cat bounce.

I wrote on Jan 30:
Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2
​above the 200 DMA ( XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16 ) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below
​Financials rebounded violently to close at 23.77 on February 3. It is still a must follow.

We must stay for today above 2002.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 20021 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2038 ( it did on February 2 )will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2062.5 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
2) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​3) Broke the 20 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2035.5
​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2040
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2021 and next big resistance trendline is the 50 DMA at 2049... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2031 to 2049.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
5)SP500 Financials HVol: Near Capitulation ?
6) Short term Indicator: ​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Bottoming Out ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay above 2021 on a daily close.

​​We broke on February 2 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2018. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2021 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 2 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2038 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​​​IF 2021 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2007 MAX 1998 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2039 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2039 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1960 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2031 and 2049.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Feb 3 Dead Cat Bounce Again ?


​​​On February 2, we did close above the 2011 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

For me it is another dead cat bounce unles we close above the 50 DMA
( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.

In the correction process, we did not even reached the ​​the 200 DMA
​( Day MovingAverage ) at 1958, another sign of technical weakness to me...

Financials will call the next big move: already they cam back on February 2 above the 200 DMA ( XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16 ) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below

We must stay for today above 2002.5 to stay Bullish, ​unless back to the Bear Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2002.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 203 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2051 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
2) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​3) Broke the 20 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2035.5
​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2040
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1975 and next big resistance trendline is the 50 DMA at 2038... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2007 to 2032.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
5) SP500 Financials HVol: Near Capitulation ?
6) Short term Indicator: ​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Bottoming Out ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay above 2002.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2002.5 support and 2035 as resistance.

​​
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2018. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2002.5 for that bulll scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, ( it did on February 2 ) then back to a bull phase ; then 2038 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​​​IF 20002.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1992 MAX 1975 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2038 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2038 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1959 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2007 and 2032.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​
Feb 2 Painful Grind ?


​​​​​On January 27, we did close below the 2040 level, triggering the Bear ​
​Scenario.

Not much have changed for me since last Thursday s dead cat bounce​​;
did test again the 2020.5 resistance trendline and faded...​

Best technical scenario will be to test the 200 DMA ( Day MovingAverage )
at 1958 and rebound from there...​​​

Financials will call the next big move: already they broke on January 30 the 200 DMA ( XLF ETF 200 DMA then at 23.16 and Jan 30 close was 23.01 ) and then becomes a must to follow - see links below

We must stay for today below 2011 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2011 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 1974.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1958 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5 and tested it on Jan 29 and Jan 29 and failed
2) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​3) Broke the 20 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2035.5
​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2040
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1974.5 and next big resistance trendline is the 20 DMA at 2022... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 1982 to 2006.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Painful Grind ?

2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
5) SP500 Financials HVol: Near Capitulation ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since January 27 ) as long as we stay below 2011 on a daily close.

​​We are within a donwtrend channel that started on January 27 with 1964 support and 2022 as resistance.

​​
We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2021. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2015.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2011 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2040 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1982 MAX 1974.5 for now.

​​IF 2011 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2038.5 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a painful grind trend til February 16..​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1958 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1817...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1982 and 2006.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Jan 30 Resuming Downtrend ?

​​​On January 27, we did close below the 2040 level, triggering the Bear ​
​Scenario.

Not much have changed for me since yesterday s dead cat bounce​​;
did test the 2020.5 resistance trendline and faded...​

Best technical scenario will be to test the 200 DMA ( Day MovingAverage )
at 1956 and rebound from there...​​​

The YEN and the VIX is a must to follow as a big wedge pattern in process
​of near ​breaking and when ​broken, I expect volatility in financial markets
​to ​pick up tremendously - see links below

We must stay for today below 2020.5 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2020.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 1973.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1956 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5
2) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​3) Broke the 20 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2035.5
​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2040
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a bear trend til the end of the month.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1973.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2039... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 1991 to 2020.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
5) Old Indicator:Opinion: What the oldest stock market index is telling us
6) The VIX: ​VIX and SP500: Near Wedge Resistance and Break Out ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since January 27 ) as long as we stay below 2020.5 on a daily close.

​​We broke on January 28 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2017.5 support and 2050.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on January 28 an uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2031.5 support and 2072 as resistance

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2020.5. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2014.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2020.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2040 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1989 MAX 1973.5 for now.

​​IF 2020.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2039 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2039 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 2039 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a bear trend til the end of the month.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1957 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1991 and 2020.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​

​​Jan 29  Old Indicators ?


​​​On January 27, we did close below the 2040 level, triggering the Bear ​
​Scenario.

Best technical scenario will be to test the 200 DMA ( Day MovingAverage )
at 1956 and rebound from there...​​​

The YEN and the VIX is a must to follow as a big wedge pattern in process
​of near ​breaking and when ​broken, I expect volatility in financial markets
​to ​pick up tremendously - see links below

We must stay for today below 2020.5 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2020.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 1973.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1956 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen and the VIX, signal increase volatility ahead - See Links Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
1) Broke on January 28 a suppport trendline​ then at 2020.5
2) Broke on January 28 a second support trendline then at 2010​
​3) Broke the 20 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2035.5
​4) Broke the 50 DMA on the downside on January 27 then at 2040
​​​5) Seasonals are turning in a bear trend til the end of the month.
​​6) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 1973.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2039.5... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 1974 to 2012.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?
5) Old Indicator: Opinion: What the oldest stock market index is telling us
6) The VIX: ​VIX and SP500: Near Wedge Resistance and Break Out ​?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since January 27 ) as long as we stay below 2020.5 on a daily close.

​​We broke on January 28 a donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2017.5 support and 2050.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on January 28 an uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2031.5 support and 2072 as resistance

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2020.5. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes resistance at 2012. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2020.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2040 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 1989 MAX 1973.5 for now.

​​IF 2020.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2039.5 MAX 2062.5 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2039.4 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulll.

Already starting to trade below the 2039.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a bear trend til the end of the month.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1956 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1974 and 2012.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.



​​​Jan 28​​ Volatility set to increase again ?


​​​​​​On January 27, we did close below the 2040 level, triggering the Bear ​
​Scenario.

The YEN is a must to follow as a big wedge pattern in process of near
​breaking and when ​broken, I expect volatility in financial markets to
​pick up - see link below

We must stay for today below 2050.5 to stay Bearish, ​unless back to the Bull Mode.​

​​We have a new donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2017.5 support and 2050.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then ​at 1998.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2010 for today...

​​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then ​at 2019.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020.5 for today...

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2050.5 will change that scenario to a bull trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2010 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1984 MAX.

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows and like the wedge pattern on the Yen, signal increase volatility ahead - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2039.4
​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2038.5
3) Broke the Downtrend Channel​ on January 22 started on December 30 then at 2032
4) ​Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
5) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a grind trend around January 26 til January 28.
​​7) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air
8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2010 and next big resistance trendline at 2050.5... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2020 to 2047.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) The Yen Experiment: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
​​3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear mode ( since January 27 ) as long as we stay below 2050.5 on a daily close.

​​We have a new donwtrend channel that started on January 23 with 2017.5 support and 2050.5 as resistance.

​​We have an uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2031.5 support and 2072 as resistance

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2020.5. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2010. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay below 2050.5 for that bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

​​IF 2040 break down on a daily close, ( it did on January 27 ) then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2020.5 MAX 2010 for now.

​​IF 2050.5 break up on a daily close, then back to a bull phase ; then 2062.5 MAX 2072 as targets for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2040 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulll.

Already starting to trade below the 2040 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a small grind trend around January 26 til January 28.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1955 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2020 and 2047.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


Jan 27  Time vs Price ?

​​​​​On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario.

We may have a few trading sessions in a choppy price action where time
more than price will make the technical set up. The 50 DMA is the key...​​​

We must stay for today above the 50 DMA now at 2040 to stay Bullish,
​unless back to the Correction Mode.​

​​We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2029 support and 2069 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then ​at 1998.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2008.5 for today...

​​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then ​at 2019.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2040 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2062.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2088.5 MAX.

PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - See Link Below...​

Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows - See Link Below.​​

My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself and Stocks to Bonds Still in Divergence - See links Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:​
​1) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2039.4
​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2038.5
3) Broke the Downtrend Channel​ on January 22 started on December 30 then at 2032
4) ​Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
5) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a grind trend around January 26 til January 28.
​​7) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - see link below
8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2040 and next big resistance trendline at 2069... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2035 to 2055.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Weak Uptrend: ​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
4) Macro : Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Divergence Prevail ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) that changed to a Bull Trend
​( On January 22 ) as long as we stay above 2040 on a daily close.

We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2029 support and 2069 as resistance

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2020. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2008.5. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2040 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2062.5 MAX 2069 as targets for now.

​​IF 2040 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2020 MAX 2008.5 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2040is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2040 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a small grind trend around January 26 til January 28.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1954 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2035 and 2055.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​Jan 26 The 50 DMA at Risk ?


​​​​​​On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2038.5. On January 22, we did
​close above the 50 DMA, then from a dead cat bounce to a Bull Phase.

We must stay for today above the 50 DMA now at 2039.5 to stay Bullish,
​unless back to the Correction Mode.​

​​We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2048 support and 2086 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then ​at 1998.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2005 for today...

​​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then ​at 2019.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2039.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2062 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2086 MAX.

PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - See Link Below...​

​​
Also interesting to note that my Custom Trendicator is in a compression phase with Loer Highs and Lower Lows - See Link Below.​​
My Main Concern here on a Macro Basis is that the Strenght of the US Dollar will bring tremendous pressure on Earnings and then the SP500 itself - See link Below...​​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:
​1) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2039.4
​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2038.5
3) Broke the Downtrend Channel​ on January 22 started on December 30 then at 2032
4) ​Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
5) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
​​7) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - see link below
8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2003: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2039.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2074... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2025 to 2048.
​​

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​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) Weak Uptrend: ​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
3) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?



Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) that changed to a Bull Trend
​( On January 22 ) as long as we stay above 2039.5 on a daily close.

We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 21 with 2048 support and 2086 as resistance

​​We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2028 support and 2056 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on January 22 a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1941.5 support and 2032 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We also broke on January 22 a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1951 support and 2016 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2020. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2003. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2039.5 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2063.5 MAX 2086 as targets for now.

​​IF 2039.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2020 MAX 2007 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2039.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2039.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1952 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2025 and 2048.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​​Jan 23 ​Broke the Downward Channel ?

​​​​​On January 16, we did close above the 1998.5 level, triggering the Bull ​
​Scenario. For me it is a dead cat bounce til we do not close above the
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2038.5. On January 22, we did
​close above the 50 DMA, then from a dead cat bounce to a Bull Phase.

Also we broke on the upside on January 22 a downward Channel that
​started on December 30 with 2032 resistance....​​​

​​We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 22 with 2037 support and 2074 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 16 then ​at 1998.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Major Support is at 2005 for today...

​​​​​​​​​​We came back above a Major Support Trendline on January 21 then ​at 2019.5. ​That Trendline which becomes Support is at 2020 for today...

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2038.5 will change that scenario to a bear trend...
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2074 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2089 MAX.

PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - See Link Below...​
​​
​​​​Some Comments:
​1) Broke the 20 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2039.4
​2) Broke the 50 DMA on the upside on January 22 then at 2038.5
3) Broke the Downtrend Channel​ on January 22 started on December 30 then at 2032
4) ​Broke on January 21 on the upside the Support Trendline then at 2019.5
5) Broke on January 16 on the upside the Major Support Trendline then at 1998.5
​​​6) Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.
​​7) PVT is telling us that this last upleg at the beginning of January was made on thin air - see link below
8) US Dollar Index DXY is back at level last seen in 2005: That was the trigger on US Assets Sell Off...

​​​​​Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2038.5 and next big resistance trendline at 2074... ​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2048 to 2068.
​​

NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Consolidation ?
2) ​Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?
3) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years ?
4) Weak Uptrend: ​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?


Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Trade mode ( since January 16 ) that changed to a Bull Trend
​( On January 22 ) as long as we stay above 2038.5 on a daily close.

We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 21 with 2037 support and 2074 as resistance

​​We have a new uptrend channel that started on January 20 with 2020 support and 2048 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on January 22 a downtrend channel that started on December 30 with 1941.5 support and 2032 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We also broke on January 22 a downtrend channel that started on January 9 with 1951 support and 2016 as resistance.

We broke on the upside on January 21 a support trendline that started on September 19 with 2019.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2020. ​( See 1st chart below - amber trendline )

​We broke another support trendline on January 16 that started on December 16 with 1998.5 level.
​Now becomes support at 2003. ​( See 1st chart below - red trendline )

​We need to stay above 2038.5 for that bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking out that level will cancel the Bull mode and will be seen as a bear trend.

IF 1998.5 break up on a daily close, ( it did on January 16 ), then back to a dead cat bounce phase ; then 2067.5 MAX 2074 as targets for now.

​​IF 2038.5 break down on a daily close, then expect to be back into a bear phase ; then 2020 MAX 2005 for now.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2038.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2038.5 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning in a range trend around January 20 til January 26.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1952 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1876 max 1813...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2048 and 2068.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.