FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
DAILY TECHNICALS

August 17
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at
TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​NEW PAGES LINKS starting August 18

​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...​

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages )
​and both were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..


​​We are still into that downward channel that started back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).

​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2076.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trenldine for support and top red trendline as resistance.

​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now... 

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2076.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the channel at 2095

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2095.


The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and  Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​2) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​4) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​6) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​
​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ :
SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​
​Back to the technical levels now.       
​                                                                                               
Disclaimer

We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above  2084.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2075 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​
​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

























​SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily U5 - Still into the Channel ?   - PREMIUM USERS
​ ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SP500 E-Mini Futures Daily Z4 - Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ?  $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500



​​August 17 Still into the Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​NEW PAGES LINKS starting August 18

​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...​

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages )
​and both were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..

​​We are still into that downward channel that started back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).

​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2076.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trenldine for support and top red trendline as resistance.

​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2076.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the channel at 2095

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2095.

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​2) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​4) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​6) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2084.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2075 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

August 14 Rejection ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​NEW PAGES LINKS starting August 18

​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target ...​

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​We did test the 200 DMA on August 12 and rebounded violently - a good technical sign indeed. I still believe we are within that downward channel and almost reached this morning the resistance trendline now at 2097.5. That is why I am very cautious as we may, like August 10, only in a dead cat bounce...A Daily close today above the 50 DMA at 2088.5 will give me more confidence...​

We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages ) and bothe were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..

​​
​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2075 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061.5 MAX 2048 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2074 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2095

​​Then today I expect a range from 2070 to 2085.

We are within a Grinding PVT in a rising wedge: todays levels are 2074 support and 2107.5 resistance:
​​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Grinding PVT within a Wedge ?


​​​Volatility is set to stay high: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

Also take note that we had a Death Cross on the Dow Jones Industrials on August 11:
​DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?

​​Sentiment among Market Participants is still sliding: ​​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?

We had on ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) A very unusual behavior if we look back at history as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA without a spike in Volatility...

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​8 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?
6) Macro Technicals: DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?
7) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
8) Grinding Tech: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Grinding PVT within a Wedge ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2075 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2066.5 as suport and 2096.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2075 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2075 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2061.5 MAX 2048 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2061 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2075 and 2085.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​August 13 The 200 DMA Experiment ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target ...​

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​China currency devaluation is a very Big Factor:
​ China’s decision on Tuesday to devalue the yuan and shift to a more
​market-determined rate sparked concern that the world’s second-largest
​ economy is faltering.​​​​​​​​Take note that we almost reached on August 12 in the overnight trading session the 200 DMA on SP500 fut now at 2060. This is the Battle: previous times when we reached that 200 DMA, Market Participants rushed to buy stocks. As currency fluctuations and volatility set in, a more cautious approch is warrented this time.

We did test the 200 DMA on August 12 and rebounded violently - a good technical sign indeed. I still believe we are within that downward channel and almost reached this morning the resistance trendline now at 2097.5. That is why I am very cautious as we may, like August 10, only in a dead cat bounce...
A Daily close today above the 50 DMA at 2088.5 will give me more confidence...​

Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2074 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2060.5 MAX 2049 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2074 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2095

​​Then today I expect a range from 2074 to 2095.

We are within a Grinding PVT in a rising wedge: todays levels are 2074 support and 2107.5 resistance:
​​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Grinding PVT within a Wedge ?


​​​Volatility is set to stay high: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

Also take note that we had a Death Cross on the Dow Jones Industrials on August 11:
​DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?

​​Sentiment among Market Participants is still sliding: ​​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?

We had on ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) A very unusual behavior if we look back at history as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA without a spike in Volatility...

​​​Financials (XLF), Internet stocks (FDN) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?
6) Macro Technicals: DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?
7) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
8) Grinding Tech: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Grinding PVT within a Wedge ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2074 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2068 as suport and 2097.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2074 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2074 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2060.5 MAX 2049 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2060 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2074 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

August 12 Battle of the 200 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2082.5 level on August 10, but will stay bearish
within the downtrend channel as China Yuan Devaluation story will bring
tremendous volatility​ for Financial Markets​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation
As mentioned yesterday, I was expecting a dead cat bounce towards the
​​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at 2089.2 ) this week. We did it yesterday and reached a high of 2101.25 - summer illiquidity makes the move more violent and exceed technical levels... and Seasonals turning to a Range Trade Market...​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2071 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

China currency devaluation is a very Big Factor: China’s decision on Tuesday to devalue the yuan and shift to a more market-determined rate sparked concern that the world’s second-largest economy is faltering.

​​​​​​​​Take note that we almost reached on August 12 in the overnight trading session the 200 DMA on SP500 fut now at 2060. This is the Battle: previous times when we reached that 200 DMA, Market Participants rushed to buy stocks. As currency fluctuations and volatility set in, a more cautious approch is warrented this time.

​​​​​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2071 for now... New targets 2060, 2050 and 2037.5

​​​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2089 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16.


​Volatility is set to stay high: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

Also take note that we had a Death Cross on the Dow Jones Industrials on August 11:
​DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?

​​Sentiment among Market Participants is still sliding: ​​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?

We had on ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) A very unusual behavior if we look back at history as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA without a spike in Volatility...

​​​Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI) Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is th2 200 DMA at 2060 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2083.5


​​Then today I expect a range from 2050 to 2085
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?
6) Macro Technicals: DJ Industrials: Death Cross ?
7) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2083.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2069.5 as suport and 2099 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2083.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2083.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2108 MAX 2115 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.8 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088.8 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2060 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2050 and 2085.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​August 11 Still into that Downtrend Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2082.5 level on August 10, but will stay bearish
within the downtrend channel as China Yuan Devaluation story is quite
​bad for Financial Markets​.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: We reached last Friday the MAX target downside of
​2067 on SP500 fut. With Shanghai up +4.9% and Seasonals turning to a
​Range Trade Market, the risk are for a dead cat bounce towards the
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at 2089.2 ) this week.

​​​​China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation

As mentioned yesterday, I was expecting a dead cat bounce towards the ​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at 2089.2 ) this week. We did it yesterday and reached a high of 2101.25 - summer illiquidity makes the move more violent and exceed technical levels... and Seasonals turning to a Range Trade Market...

​We are still within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2071 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

​​​​​Take note that we almost reached on August 7 the 200 DMA on SP500 fut now at 2059.3.

​​​​​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082.5 MAX 2071 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2101 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2108 MAX 2115.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16.

Sentiment among Market Participants is still sliding: ​​SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?


We had on ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) A very unusual behavior if we look back at history as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA without a spike in Volatility...

​​​Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI) Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is channel support at 2071 and next big resistance is the 20 DMA at 2097


​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2101
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
5) Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Lowest since October 2014 ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2082.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2071 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2101 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2101 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2108 MAX 2115 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2089.3 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2089.3 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2059 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2101.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​August 10 Shanghai and Seasonals ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on August 3rd, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Non Farm Payrolls this morning (NFP):
​Here's What You Need to Know About Friday's Jobs Report
​​​​​Reported job creation in July is the second weakest of any month since
​the recovery began more than six years ago.
So a weak number will be bad for Financials and the US Dollar and bring sellers to the already weak market.
NFP MACRO TECH LEVELS: Support: 2065 and 2057.5 and 2034 Resistance: 2102 and 2115 and 2126.5

We reached last Friday the MAX target downside of 2067 on SP500 fut. With Shanghai up +4.9% and Seasonals turning to a Range Trade Market, the risk are for a dead cat bounce towards the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - now at 2089.2 ) this week.

​​​​Take note that we almost reached on August 7 the 200 DMA on SP500 fut now at 2058.5.

​​​​​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2067 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2082.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2089.5 MAX 2100.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16.

We had on ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) A very unusual behavior if we look back at history as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA without a spike in Volatility...

​​​Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI) Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2058.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2089


​​Then today I expect a range from 2071 to 2084
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Voaltility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?



​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2082.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2072 as suport and 2100 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2082.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2082.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2089.5 MAX 2100 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2089.2 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2089.2 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til August 16. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2058 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2071 and 2084.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​August 7 NFP and DXY ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on August 3rd, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Not much have changed for me since yesterday: We
​are still within that ​downward channel that started back on July 29...
​2075 support and 2103.5 as resistance...Interesting to note that on
​August 4, we ​reached the 2104.5 resistance trendline and was rejected...
​Shanghai is down today of -0.9% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2090.7 is still raging...

Non Farm Payrolls this morning (NFP): Here's What You Need to Know About Friday's Jobs Report
​​​​​Reported job creation in July is the second weakest of any month since the recovery began more than six years ago.

So a weak number will be bad for Financials and the US Dollar and bring sellers to the already weak market.
NFP MACRO TECH LEVELS: Support: 2065 and 2057.5 and 2034 Resistance: 2102 and 2115 and 2126.5

​Take nothe that we re getting near the 200 DMA on SP500 fut now at 2057.5.

​​​​​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2067 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2102 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2108.5 MAX 2115.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 8.

​​We are near a resistance trendline on the ratio of 50DMA over 200DMA that I will follow:
​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Resistance Trendline ?

Risk Taking Behavior continue to weaken: ​​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​It is not a bear factor but it will be more difficult for the market to grind without the high betas stocks...

In fact, the whole month of August is bad on Seasonals ( Average of the past 5 years ):
​SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?

​​​Financials (XLF), US Dollar (DXY and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2073.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2090


​​Then today I expect a range from 2065 to 2104
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Risk Taking Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
5) Dead Cat Bounce: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Oversold Zone ?
6) Grinding Tech Behavior: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Resistance Trendline ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2102 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2073.5 as suport and 2101 as resistance.

​We broke on August 4 an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2087 as suport and 2125 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2102 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2102 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2108.5 MAX 2115 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.1 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2090.1 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 8.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2057 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2065 and 2104.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​August 6 Follow the Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on August 3rd, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​So today we are within a dead cat bounce to the 50 DMA
​at 2091 to 2095 before resuming downtrend. ​Market turmoil is not over as
​Shanghai down 1.6% and Apple Shares are in disarray.

Not much have changed for me since yesterday: We are still within that
​downward channel that started back on July 29... 2075 support and 2103.5 as resistance...

Interesting to note that on August 4, we ​reached the 2104.5 resistance trendline and was rejected...

Shanghai is down today of -0.9% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2090.7 is still raging...


​​​​​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2067 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2103.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2109 MAX 2115.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 8.

​​We are near a resistance trendline on the ratio of 50DMA over 200DMA that I will follow:
​SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Resistance Trendline ?


Risk Taking Behavior continue to weaken: ​​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​It is not a bear factor but it will be more difficult for the market to grind without the high betas stocks...

In fact, the whole month of August is bad on Seasonals ( Average of the past 5 years ):
​SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?

​​​Apple (AAPL) and and Financials (XLF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 3, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092.1
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2081 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2109


​​Then today I expect a range from 2087 to 2101
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Risk Taking Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
5) Dead Cat Bounce: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Oversold Zone ?
6) Grinding Tech Behavior: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above 50/200 DMA: Near Resistance Trendline ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2104.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2075 as suport and 2103.5 as resistance.

​We broke on August 4 an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2087 as suport and 2125 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2103.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2103.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2109 MAX 2115 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.7 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2090.7 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 8.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2057 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2087 and 2101.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​August 5 50 DMA at Play ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on August 3rd, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​End of he month sellers showed up on July 31 as
​expected... Interesting to note that in very early trading on July 31, we
​almost reached the 2110.5 resistance trendline and failed to break it...

That will be a good test for the Bears today as the Shanghai rebound
of +3.7% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2091.5 is still raging...

​​So today we are within a dead cat bounce to the 50 DMA at 2091 to 2095 before resuming downtrend.
​Market turmoil is not over as Shanghai down 1.6% and Apple Shares are in disarray.

We are still within that downward chaanel that started back on July 29... 2076.5 support and 2104.5 as resistance...
​​​
​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2080 MAX 2070.5 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2104.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2109 MAX 2115.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 8.

Risk Taking Behavior continue to weaken: ​​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​It is not a bear factor but it will be more difficult for the market to grind without the high betas stocks...

In fact, the whole month of August is bad on Seasonals ( Average of the past 5 years ):
​SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?

​​​Apple (AAPL) and and Financials (XLF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 3, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092.1
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2080.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2109


​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2095
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Risk Taking Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
5) Dead Cat Bounce: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Oversold Zone ?


​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2104.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2076.5 as suport and 2104.5 as resistance.

​We broke on August 4 an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2087 as suport and 2125 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2104.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2104.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2109 MAX 2115 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.8 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2090.8 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 8.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2055 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​August 4 Bears Test ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2092 level on August 3rd, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​End of he month sellers showed up on July 31 as
​expected... Interesting to note that in very early trading on July 31, we
​almost reached the 2110.5 resistance trendline and failed to break it...

That will be a good test for the Bears today as the Shanghai rebound
of +3.7% and the Dow Jones Transports still above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ).​ Also, the SP500 fut battle of the 50 DMA now at 2091.5 is still raging...

​​
​Only a daily close below 2092 ( it did on August 4 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2080 MAX 2070.5 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2106.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2115 MAX 2126.5.

​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 8.

Risk Taking Behavior continue to weaken: ​​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​It is not a bear factor but it will be more difficult for the market to grind without the high betas stocks...

In fact, the whole month of August is bad on Seasonals ( Average of the past 5 years ):
​SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?


​​Apple (AAPL) and Industrials (XLI) and Financials (XLF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On August 3, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092.1
​​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2080 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2109.5


​​Then today I expect a range from 2085 to 2100
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Risk Taking Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?



​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 3 ) as long as we stay below 2106.5 on a daily close.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2087 as suport and 2125 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2106.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2106.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2115 MAX 2126.5 for now...

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2091.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2091.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 8.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2054 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2085 and 2100.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

August 3 Resistance Trendline ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083 level on July 28, triggering the Bull Stance.
I will be Neutral personally...​

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​We did test on July 30 the 20 DMA and 50 DMA and
​rebounded from there, a strong statement by the market indeed.
​​So Bulls still need to protect the 50 DMA on a Daily close at 2092.5,
​unless for me it will be a false upmove...
The next Big Challenge for Bulls is to break the resistance trendline at 2110.5...​
We are facing a Tricky Month End as International Players should be sellers of US Equities ( Strong performance of the US Dollar Index in July ) and a tiny portfolio rebalancing from Domestic players as they should sell US Equities to buy some Bonds. And usually the timing of it is between 10.00 to 11.30 NY Time for Intl Players and last 30 minutes for US Participants. ( See 3rd chart below )

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​End of he month sellers showed up on July 31 as expected... Interesting to note that in very early trading on July 31, we almost reached the 2110.5 resistance trendline and failed to break it...

​​Only a daily close above 2083 ( it did on July 28 ) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097.
Next targets are 2110 and 2115

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 8.
In fact, the whole month of August is bad on Seasonals ( Average of the past 5 years ):
​SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?


​​Apple (AAPL) and Industrials (XLI) will still be on my watch list today...


​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...



​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​1) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​3) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​5) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​6) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​7) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​8) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2110


​​Then today I expect a range from 2090 to 2105
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Three factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 28 ) as long as we stay above 2092 on a daily close.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2082 as suport and 2119 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2092 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2092 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2080 MAX 2071.5 for now...

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 8.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2053 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2090 and 2105.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
July 31 Tricky Month End ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083 level on July 28, triggering the Bull Stance.
I will be Neutral personally...​

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​We did break the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the
​SP500 fut yesterday even before the FED, a very aggressive move by the
​market. The DJ Transports also did close above the 50 DMA.
Shangai is down so expect volatility to prevail... I still feel not very upbeat about that uptrend, but its is what it is. Market is ignoring that China Volatility in stocks​​:
​SP500 and Russel1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?

We did test on July 30 the 20 DMA and 50 DMA and rebounded from there, a strong statement by the market indeed.

​​So Bulls still need to protect the 50 DMA on a Daily close at 2092.5, unless for me it will be a false upmove...
The next Big Challenge for Bulls is to break the resistance trendline at 2110.5...​

We are facing a Tricky Month End as International Players should be sellers of US Equities ( Strong performance of the US Dollar Index in July ) and a tiny portfolio rebalancing from Domestic players as they should sell US Equities to buy some Bonds. And usually the timing of it is between 10.00 to 11.30 NY Time for Intl Players and last 30 minutes for US Participants. ( See 3rd chart below )

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2083 ( it did on July 28 ) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097.
Next targets are 2110.5 and 2115

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.

​​Apple (AAPL) and Financials will still be on my watch list today...


​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...



​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​1) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​3) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​5) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​6) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​7) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​8) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2110.5


​​Then today I expect a range from 2092 to 2110
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
6) At Crossroads: DJ Transports: Break Out or Fade ?
7) Volatility: SP500 and Russel1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 28 ) as long as we stay above 2092.5 on a daily close.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2077 as suport and 2114.5 as resistance.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 6 with 2052 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2092.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2092.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079.5 MAX 2069.5 for now...

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2092.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2052 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2092 and 2110.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​July 30 50 DMA at play ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083 level on July 28, triggering the Bull Stance.
I will be Neutral personally...​

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​We did have finally the Dead Cat Bounce on July 28 a lot
​stronger than anticipated - classic extreme move that happen during
​illiquid summer time...We are near the resistance trendline of the upward
​channel at 2093.5. Also, the 50 DMA is at 2093.​​​
A few things is puzzling me at this stage:
1) ​I wrote earlier that my best technical set up is still to test the 200 DMA on SP500 fut ( now at 2049 ) and rebound.... Will the market gives us that pattern to clear the way for a stronger tech behavior thereafter...
We did not have that ultimate test, making the market upmove a lot more fragile to me...
​2) The Dow Jones Transportation ​is near testing the Break Out mode but DID NOT YET CONFIRM


We did break the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the SP500 fut yesterday even before the FED, a very aggressive move by the market. The DJ Transports also did close above the 50 DMA.

Shangai is down so expect volatility to prevail... I still feel not very upbeat about that uptrend, but its is what it is. Market is ignoring that China Volatility in stocks​​:
​SP500 and Russel1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?

So Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA on a Daily close at 2092.5, unless for me it will be a false upmove...
The next Big Challenge for Bulls is to brek the resistance trendline at 2110.5...​

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2083 ( it did on July 28 ) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097.
Next targets are 2110.5 and 2115

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.

​​Apple (AAPL) and Financials will still be on my watch list today...


​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...



​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​1) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​2) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​3) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​4) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​5) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​6) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​7) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​8) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092.5 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2110.5


​​Then today I expect a range from 2092 to 2104
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
6) At Crossroads: DJ Transports: Break Out or Fade ?
7) Volatility: SP500 and Russel1000 Financial Services and VIX: No Fear Priced Into the Market ?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 28 ) as long as we stay above 2092.5 on a daily close.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 27 with 2072 as suport and 2109.5 as resistance.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 6 with 2052 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2092.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2092.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2078.5 MAX 2072 for now...

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2092.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2050 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2092 and 2104.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​July 29 Puzzled ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083 level on July 28, triggering the Bull Stance.
I will be Neutral personally...​

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​Finally the Dead Cat Bounce ( I thought yesterday
​happening before the market open - it did not ) to MAX 2083
before resuming downtrend. A lot of sector rotation within the stock
​market that will add to the Volatility already high in China...
​We must also take note that small capitalization are at crossroads here - we are testing the 200 DMA zone on the Russell ​2000...
​​​​​​My best technical set up is still to test the 200 DMA on SP500 fut ( now at 2048 ) and rebound....
Will the market gives us that pattern to clear the way for a stronger tech behavior thereafter...
​​
We did have finally the Dead Cat Bounce on July 28 a lot stronger than anticipated - classic extreme move that happen during illiquid summer time...

We are near the resistance trendline of the upward channel at 2093.5. Also, the 50 DMA is at 2093.​​​

A few things is puzzling me at this stage:
1) ​I wrote earlier that my best technical set up is still to test the 200 DMA on SP500 fut ( now at 2049 ) and rebound.... Will the market gives us that pattern to clear the way for a stronger tech behavior thereafter...
We did not have that ultimate test, making the market upmove a lot more fragile to me...
​2) The Dow Jones Transportation ​is near testing the Break Out mode but DID NOT YET CONFIRM


​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2083 ( it did on July 28 ) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.

​​Apple (AAPL) and Financials will still be on my watch list today...


​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

On a short term basis, some technical indicatorsstart to be into the oversold zone, Observe also that we came back near the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) where past reversal occured.

The market is now Skewed: Buying some protection in out of the money options for protection needs:
​​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​1) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​2) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​3) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​4) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​5) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​6) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2084.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2093.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2084 to 2097
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
6) At Crossroads: DJ Transports: Break Out or Fade ?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 28 ) as long as we stay above 2078 on a daily close.

We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 6 with 2052 as suport and 2093.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2078 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2078 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2070.5 MAX 2060.5 for now...

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2093.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2049 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2084 and 2097.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​July 28 Dead Cat Bounce ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the 2113.5 level on July 21, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on July 24 below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving
​Average ) then at 2094.5 and reached in the same trading session the
​Major Support Trendline that started back on May 7 then at 2077.
The SP500 is at crossroads here.​​ We may have a tiny dead cat bounce to
​MAX 2084.5 (20 DMA) before resuming downtrend. Having a daily close
​below the Support Trendline at 2077 open the door to test the 200 DMA now at 2047.4.

Finally the Dead Cat Bounce ( I thought yesterday happening before the market open - it did not ) to MAX 2083
before resuming downtrend. A lot of sector rotation within the stock market that will add to the Volatility already high in China...

We must also take note that small capitalization are at crossroads here - we are testing the 200 DMA zone on the Russell ​2000...

​​​​​​My best technical set up is still to test the 200 DMA on SP500 fut ( now at 2048 ) and rebound....
Will the market gives us that pattern to clear the way for a stronger tech behavior thereafter...
​​
​​Only a daily close above 2083 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.

Many interesting technical factors on July 27:
1) Tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on Financials then at 24.88 and closed above
2) New Lows on Industrials and Interne Stocks ( XLI and FDN )
3) Apple took a hit based on their too critical China market

All those should stabilize today...​​
​​
Apple (AAPL) and Financials will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

On a short term basis, some technical indicators start to be into the oversold zone, Observe also that we came back near the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) where past reversal occured.

The market is now Skewed: Buying some protection in out of the money options for protection needs:
​​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​1) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​2) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​3) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​4) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​5) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​6) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2048 and next big resistance is the Resistance Trendline at 2078.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2063 to 2083
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since July 21 ) as long as we stay below 2083 on a daily close.

We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with 2089 as suport and 2108 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2080.5...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2083 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2083 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2097

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2093.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2047 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2063 and 2083.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

July 27 At Crossroads ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the 2113.5 level on July 21, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:
​Many interesting technical factors on July 23:
1) Tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5 on SP500 fut
2) Made a new high at 25.62 and total rejection.​
​Financials flirting again with that 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
3) Dow Jones Transport broke back the support trendline that started on May 29 and below the 20 DMA now
( see 3rd chart below - red trendline and yellow line for 20 DMA - ellipse )​
4) Battle between real economy stocks ( XLI, CAT, MCD,... ) and virtual economy ( FDN, AMZN, GOOG,... )
​​​A daily close below 2094.5 will add to a bear impulse toward 2085 MAX 2077...

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close on July 24 below the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5 and reached in the same trading session the Major Support Trendline that started back on May 7 then at 2077.

The SP500 is at crossroads here.​​ We may have a tiny dead cat bounce to MAX 2084.5 (20 DMA) before resuming downtrend. Having a daily close below the Support Trendline at 2077 open the door to test the 200 DMA now at 2047.4.

​​Only a daily close above 2094.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2102.5 MAX 2111.5

​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.

Apple (AAPL and Financials will be on my watch list today...

​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

On a short term basis, some technical indicators start to be into the oversold zone, Observe also that we came back near the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) where past reversal occured.

The market is now Skewed: Buying some protection in out of the money options for protection needs:
​​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​1) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​2) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
​3) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​4) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​5) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​6) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111

​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the Support Trendline at 2077 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2094.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2069 to 2085
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Short Term Technicals: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?



​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since July 21 ) as long as we stay below 2094.5 on a daily close.

We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

We broke on July 24 a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with 2089 as suport and 2108 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2080.5...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2094.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2094.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2102.5 MAX 2111.5

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2047 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1993 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2069 and 2085.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​July 24 Battle of the 50 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the 2113.5 level on July 21, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: Not much have changed for me. We are now near
​reversal in the Seasonals were a slow Bleed pattern til the beginning of
​August... Apple and the Financials are the lead...

Many interesting technical factors on July 23:
1) Tested the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5 on SP500 fut
2) Made a new high at 25.62 and total rejection.​
​Financials flirting again with that 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
3) Dow Jones Transport broke back the support trendline that started on May 29 and below the 20 DMA now
( see 3rd chart below - red trendline and yellow line for 20 DMA - ellipse )​
4) Battle between real economy stocks ( XLI, CAT, MCD,... ) and virtual economy ( FDN, AMZN, GOOG,... )


​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2120.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2126.5 MAX 2138

​​​A daily close below 2094.5 will add to a bear impulse toward 2085 MAX 2077...

​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til August 4.


​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

The market is now Skewed: Buying some protection in out of the money options for protection needs:
​​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?

Now Industrials Failed to stay above the 20 DMA on the SP500 high ever: ​​
​The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?

So Technical Indicators are for a weak upmove: either as Risk Taking Behavior as some Divergence Prevail...
- ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
- NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?

​​​​​The VIX - Gold Correlation is flashing for more Volatility ahead...

​​Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094.5 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2094 to 2108
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Valuation: SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​6) Industrials: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?
7) Skewed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since July 21 ) as long as we stay below 2120.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2102 as suport and 2120.5 as resistance.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 21 with 2089 as suport and 2108 as resistance.

​​​​​​We broke on July 23 an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2104 as suport and 2146 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2089...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2120.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2120.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2126.5 MAX 2138

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til August 4.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2046 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2094 and 2108.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​July 23 Are we Skewed ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the 2113.5 level on July 21, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​
Many technicals made me switch to a bear stance:
1) Trade below on July 21 the Support Trendline from a Falling Wedge
​now at 2112.5.
2) Financials flirting again with that 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
3) Dow Jones Transport failed to test the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at peak price on SP500 fut.
4) Apple will play a significant part of the next few trading sessions as Earnings was below expectations.

Not much have changed for me. We are now near reversal in the Seasonals were a slow Bleed pattern til the beginning of August... Apple and the Financials are the lead...

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2122 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2137 MAX 2145

​​​A daily close below 2094.5 will add to a bear impulse toward 2085 MAX 2076...


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 23.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

The market is now Skewed: Buying some protection in out of the money options for protection needs:
​​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


Now Industrials Failed to stay above the 20 DMA on the SP500 high ever: ​​
​The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?

So Technical Indicators are for a weak upmove: either as Risk Taking Behavior as some Divergence Prevail...
- ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
- NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?

​​​​​The VIX - Gold Correlation is flashing for more Volatility ahead...

​​Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA now at 8374.0...

Few noticed last week on the Industrials XLI a death cross on July 16...​​



​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094.5 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2104 to 2116
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Valuation: SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​6) Industrials: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?
7) Skewed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?


​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since July 21 ) as long as we stay below 2122 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2104 as suport and 2146 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2104 as suport and 2122 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2089...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2122 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2122 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2137 MAX 2145

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2094.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 23.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2046 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2104 and 2116.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

July 22 Now the Industrials ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close near the 2113.5 level on July 21, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​Technicals are in a weakening mode
​( my Daily Trendicator ) as near testing the high ever on the SP500 fut
​and the indicator are making Lower Highs, a warning sign of that
​upmove done without strenght.

Many technicals made me switch to a bear stance:
1) Trade below on July 21 the Support Trendline from a Falling Wedge now at 2112.5.
2) Financials flirting again with that 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
3) Dow Jones Transport failed to test the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at peak price on SP500 fut.
4) Apple will play a significant part of the next few trading sessions as Earnings was below expectations.

​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 2123.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2136 MAX 2144.5

​​​A daily close below 2094 will add to a bear impulse toward 2085.5 MAX 2045...


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 23.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Now Industrials Failed to stay above the 20 DMA on the SP500 high ever: ​​
​The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?


So Technical Indicators are for a weak upmove: either as Risk Taking Behavior as some Divergence Prevail...
- ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
- NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?


​​​​​The VIX - Gold Correlation is flashing for more Volatility ahead...

​​Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA now at 8374.0...

Few noticed last week on the Industrials XLI a death cross on July 16...​​



​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2094 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2100 to 2114
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Valuation: SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
​6) Industrials: The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?


​​
​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since July 21 ) as long as we stay below 2123.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2097.5 as suport and 2141 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on July 20 with 2104.5 as suport and 2123.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2089...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2123.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2123.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2136 MAX 2144.5

​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2094 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 23.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2045 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2100 and 2114.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
July 21 Technicals Weakening ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​The grind continue and already almost at the higher
​ever on the SP500 Index.Technical Indicators were into oversold zone
​arounf the July 8 bottom and are now flashing into the overbought zone.
I think we are into the last push up ( a few trading sessions left ) before
​we hit peak Seasonals as July 23rd as history suggest...​​​

Technicals are in a weakening mode ( my Daily Trendicator ) as near testing the high ever on the SP500 fut and the indicator are making Lower Highs, a warning sign of that upmove done without strenght.

​​Bulls need to protect on a Daily Basis that Support Trendline from a Falling Wedge now at 2112.5.

Apple - AAPL - can play a significant part of the next few trading sessions as Earnings Release today.
​​I am still following Financials as Lead; it did make​​ a new high on July 17 but was rejected. Still need to stay above 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
Also on my radar is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones Transport now at 8374.0.​
Having a daily close above the 50 DMA can gives Bulls another short term impulse...​

​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2113.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2084

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2126.5 and 2134.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 23.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

So Technical Indicators are for a weak upmove: either as Risk Taking Behavior as some Divergence Prevail...
- ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
- NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?


​​​​​The VIX - Gold Correlation is flashing for more Volatility ahead...

​​Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA now at 8374.0...

Few noticed last week on the Industrials XLI a death cross on July 16...​​



​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2093.5 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2112 to 2126
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Valuation: SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?
5) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?

​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2113.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2090.5 as suport and 2134 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2089...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2113.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2113.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093.5 MAX 2084

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2126.5 and 2134.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2093.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 23.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2044 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2112 and 2126.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​
July 20 Last Push Before Seasonals Reversal ?


​​​July 20
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​Now that we have a daily close above that Resistance
​Trendline from the Falling Wedge then at 2114, for a real Break Out, it
​should have a Quick Bull Impulse and we need today a daily close above
​2113 - which I really doubt. Already short term technicals indicators are
​reaching near overbought territory, we will see.
I am less convinced here as already we made a huge way from the last bottom reached on July 7 at 2034.25

The grind continue and already almost at the higher ever on the SP500 Index.Technical Indicators were into oversold zone arounf the July 8 bottom and are now flashing into the overbought zone.

I think we are into the last push up ( a few trading sessions left ) before we hit peak Seasonals as July 23rd as history suggest...​​​

Bulls need to protect on a Daily Basis ​​Resistance that Trendline from a Falling Wedge now at 2113.

I am still following Financials as Lead; it did make​​ a new high on July 17 but was rejected. Still need to stay above 25.34 level ( previous break out trendline ).
Also on my radar is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on the Dow Jones Transport now at 8383.1.​
Having a daily close above the 50 DMA can gives Bulls another short term impulse...​

​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2109 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2084

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2128 and 2134.5.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 23.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​​The VIX - Gold Correlation is flashing for more Volatility ahead...

​​
Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA now at 8383.1...

Few noticed last week on the Industrials XLI a death cross on July 16...​​



​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2093 and next big resistance is the resistance trendline at 2128.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2113 to 2128
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Bleeding Market ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) Valuation: SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2109 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2085 as suport and 2128 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support at 2089...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2109 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2109 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2093 MAX 2084

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2128 and 2134.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2093 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 23.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2043 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2113 and 2128.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

July 17 Trendline at Play ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: So finally Greece accepted the terms od the Bail Out
​package. It is just kicking the can down th road...
Market Still grinding withn an upward channel with Financials pushing
​the Mighty SP500 Index.​​On a Bigger Picture, Next Big Challenge for the
​Bulls are that Resistance Trendline from the Falling Wedge now at 2114.
​Having a daily close above it will call for 2122 to 2126.5 very quick.

​​​​Now that we have a daily close above that Resistance Trendline from the Falling Wedge then at 2114, for a real Break Out, it should have a Quick Bull Impulse and we need today a daily close above 2113 - which I really doubt. Already short term technicals indicators are reaching near overbought territory, we will see.
I am less convinced here as already we made a huge way from the last bottom reached on July 7 at 2034.25

​​​Only a daily close below 2104.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2092 MAX 2084

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2122 and 2126.5.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 20.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​​At those level, there is absolutely no Fear being priced into the Market but the sentiment is...
The ​​​​ Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money; as of July 15 is at the Extreme Fear Level, not reflected at all by the VIX... A quite rare divergence seen into that Bull Market...

Typical of the last few months, ​​PVT ( Price Volume Trend )keeps making Lower Highs and Lower Lows as less and less volume at price are committed to the market; a weak technical sign indeed...

Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on December 2014 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA...

​Already on the SP1500, we start to see some accumulation play:
​SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2092 and next big resistance is the high ever at 2126.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2107 to 2122
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Accumulation: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
5) No Volume: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Wedge ?
6) Divergence: VIX and SP500: A Fearless Market ​?
7) Short Term Technicals: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Overbought Zone ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2104.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2084 as suport and 2121 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on July 13 a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2037.5 as suport and 2073.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2104.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2104.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2091 MAX 2085.5

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2133 and 2126.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 20.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2042 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2107 and 2122.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
July 16 Greece Relief ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​The market was stronger than I expected on July 14
​and bring it to the resistance trendline form that uptrend channel that
​we have since July 9 with 2108.5 for today s level. For the market being
​that strong, it need here to stay above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
​now at 2090.9

So finally Greece accepted the terms od the Bail Out package. It is just kicking the can down th road...
Market Still grinding withn an upward channel with Financials pushing the Mighty SP500 Index.

​​On a Bigger Picture, Next Big Challenge for the Bulls are that Resistance Trendline from the Falling Wedge now at 2114. Having a daily close above it will call for 2122 to 2126.5 very quick.

​​​​Only a daily close below 2099.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2091 MAX 2085.5

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2114 and 2122.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 20.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​​
At those level, there is absolutely no Fear being priced into the Market but the sentiment is...
The ​​​​ Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money; as of July 15 is at the Extreme Fear Level, not reflected at all by the VIX... A quite rare divergence seen into that Bull Market...

Typical of the last few months, ​​PVT ( Price Volume Trend )keeps making Lower Highs and Lower Lows as less and less volume at price are committed to the market; a weak technical sign indeed...

Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?

​​The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on December 2014 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA...

​Already on the SP1500, we start to see some accumulation play:
​SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2091 and next big resistance is the Resistance at 2114.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2100 to 2118
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Accumulation: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
5) No Volume: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Wedge ?
6) Divergence: VIX and SP500: A Fearless Market ​?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2090.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2071 as suport and 2114.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on July 13 a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2037.5 as suport and 2073.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2099.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2099.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2091 MAX 2085.5

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2114 and 2122.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2091​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2091 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 20.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2041 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2100 and 2118.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​
July 15 Channel Resistance ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​We had Finally that strong Greek Relief on July 13
​having closed above the that Resistance Trendline from a Downward ​
​Channel then at 2083.5 and the 50 DMA then at 2090.5.
But the market must realize that as long as Greek Parliamant​​ must
​approve all those new laws required for accepatnce of the Bail-Out
​Package. Market yesterday priced almost 100% of success... Well...
We are in transit and the market will have to wait for full approval before next big upleg...​
So 2083 to 2096 tiny range today for me...​

The market was stronger than I expected on July 14 and bring it to the resistance trendline form that uptrend channel that we have since July 9 with 2108.5 for today s level.

For the market being that strong, it need here to stay above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 2090.9

On a Bigger Picture, Next Big Challenge for the Bulls are that Resistance Trendline from the Falling Wedge now at 2114.

​​​​Only a daily close below 2090.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2082 MAX 2073

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2108.5 and 2114.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 20.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

Typical of the last few months, ​​PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) keeps making Lower Highs and Lower Lows as less and less volume at price are committed to the market; a weak technical sign indeed...

Financials also are on a strong resistance trendline: ​​
​Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: At the Resistance Zone ?


​​The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on December 2014 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA...

​Already on the SP1500, we start to see some accumulation play:
​SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 50 DMA at 2090.5 and next big resistance is the Resistance at 2114.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2094 to 2108
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Accumulation: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?
5) No Volume: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak PVT within a Wedge ?

​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2090.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2065 as suport and 2108.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on July 13 a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2037.5 as suport and 2073.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We broke on July 14 a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2094. Becomes Support...

​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2090.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2090.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072.5 MAX 2058

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2108.5 and 2114.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2090.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 20.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2039.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2094 and 2108.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
July 14 Done or Not ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2073.5 level on July 13, triggering the Bull Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​Greece Relief this morning. But for me, for a real
​change, we need to break that Resistance Trendline from a Downward
​Channel at 2083.5 for a ​Real Bullish Impulse. Having a close above the
​50 DMA at 2090.5 will be even more powerful. Failing to do so with that
​Greece Relief today will tell me the market is weak...

​​​​We had Finally that strong Greek Relief on July 13 having closed above the that Resistance Trendline from a Downward ​Channel then at 2083.5 and the 50 DMA then at 2090.5.

But the market must realize that as long as Greek Parliamant​​ must approve all those new laws required for accepatnce of the Bail-Out Package. Market yesterday priced almost 100% of success... Well...
We are in transit and the market will have to wait for full approval before next big upleg...​
So 2083 to 2096 tiny range today for me...​

​​Only a daily close below 2080.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072.5 MAX 2058

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2096 and 2101.5.


​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 20.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​​The real Bullish or Bearish Signal for me will be when we finally break the Rising Wedge Pattern ​​that started back on December 2014 and not before that. Til then, we are in a range trade situation...

Also take note that the Dow Jones Transport Index closed above the resistance trendline and the 20 DMA on July 13. The real challenge will be the 50 DMA...

​Already on the SP1500, we start to see some accumulation play:
​SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?



​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On July 13, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.3
​2) On July 13, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2080.1
​​​​​​​3) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​4) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​5) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​6) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​7) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​
​​​​​​​Next big support is the 20 DMA at 2080.5 and next big resistance is the Resistance at 2101.5.


​​Then today I expect a range from 2083 to 2096
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Accumulation: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?
4) Macro: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bullish Mode ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since July 13 ) as long as we stay above 2080.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new uptrend channel that started on July 9 with 2058 as suport and 2101.5 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on July 13 a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2037.5 as suport and 2073.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2096.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2072.5.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay above 2080.5 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 2080.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2072.5 MAX 2058

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 ( it did on July 13 ) will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5... Next targets are 2096 and 2101.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 2090.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 20.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2039.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2083 and 2096.
​Expect average volatility in the weeks ahead.
July 13 Greece Relief ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Last Friday I wrote: ​Not much have changed for me. We are still stuck
​within that Downward Channel that started back on June 29 with 2038
​as ​support and 2074.5 as resistance... We are making Higher Lows
​and L​ower Highs....
Greece and China bring us within each side of that Channel, but we are
​still within it​​ and the more time we spend like that, the more violent the next move will be...

​Greece Relief this morning. But for me, for a real change, we need to break that Resistance Trendline from a Downward Channel at 2083.5 for a ​Real Bullish Impulse. Having a close above the 50 DMA at 2090.5 will be even more powerful. Failing to do so with that Greece Relief today will tell me the market is weak...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2083.5 MAX 2090.5...

Financials (XLF ETF) will still be a must follow today as it will lead the market...
Also, a close above the 50 DMA at 24.72 will show strength...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 20.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Already on the SP1500, we start to see some accumulation play:
​SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?



​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2039 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2090.5.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2052 to 2091
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Accumulation: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Strengthening ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2073.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2037.5 as suport and 2073.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on June 22 2015 at 2098.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2072.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay below 2073.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2073.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2082 MAX 2091...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2090.5​ is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2090.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 20.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2052 and 2091.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​July 10 Still into The Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA
​​( Day Moving Average ) and rebound...​We did it already on July 6 and 7 and 9...
​But when we will break the 200 DMA, expect volatility to pick up and to
​test the next Major Support Trendline now at 1992.

Not much have changed for me. We are still stuck within that Downward Channel that started back on June 29 with 2038 as support and 2074.5 as resistance... We are making Higher Lows and Lower Highs....

Greece and China bring us within each side of that Channel, but we are still within it​​ and the more time we spend like that, the more violent the next move will be...

​​​​​​​​Now that we tested and rebounded violently from the 200 DMA many times, we need to break the Resistance Trendline from a Downward Channel at 2083.5 for a ​Real Bullish Impulse. What we had was only a technical rebound, again... Unless, we can range trade​ kind 2039 to 2076 for the next few trading sessions...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2074.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2082 MAX 2091...

Financials (XLF ETF) will still be a must follow today as it will lead the market...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend trend til July 12.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...

​​
Retail Participcants ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: is already into an Oversold Zone. ​

​​​All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.


​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2038 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2091.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2045 to 2072
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Retail: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Oversold Zone ​?
4) Dow Theory: DJ Transport: Too Little Too Late ?
5) 200 DMA: SP500 Index: The 200 DMA Experiment ?
6) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials HVol: A no Panic Mode ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2074.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2038 as suport and 2074.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2114.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2072.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay below 2074.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2074.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2082 MAX 2091...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2091 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2091 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Bleed Trend til July 12.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2045 and 2072.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​July 9 Battle of the 200 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​Even If we got slightly over my level, I ll keep a bear
​​view as the DJ ​Transport​​ Failed to test and get over the
​ Resistance Trendline.
​Also, China Stock Market and economy start to be a real concern...

The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) and rebound...
​We did it already on July 6 and 7 and 9...

But when we will break the 200 DMA, expect volatility to pick up and to test the next Major Support Trendline now at 1992.

​​​​​​Now that we tested and rebounded violently from the 200 DMA many times, we need to break the Resistance Trendline from a Downward Channel at 2086 for a ​Real Bullish Impulse. What we had was only a technical rebound, again... Unless, we can range trade​ kind 2039 to 2076 for the next few trading sessions...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2071.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2076 MAX 2084.5...

Financials (XLF ETF) will still be a must follow today as it will lead the market...
Quite interesting to note that we did close on the 200 DMA at 24.16
​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 9.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Retail Participcants ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: is already into an Oversold Zone. ​

​​​All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.

Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2038 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2092.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2040 to 2071
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?
4) Retail: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Oversold Zone ​?
5) Dow Theory: DJ Transport: Too Little Too Late ?
6) 200 DMA: SP500 Index: The 200 DMA Experiment ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2071.5 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2039 as suport and 2075.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2114.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2071.5.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay below 2071.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2071.5 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2076 MAX 2084.5...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2092 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2092 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 9.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1992 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2040 and 2071.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

July 8 DJ Transport Rejection ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA
​and rebound... We did it already on July 6 and 7...

Even If we got slightly over my level, I ll keep a bear view as the DJ
​Transport​​ Failed to test and get over the Resistance Trendline.

Also, China Stock Market and economy start to be a real concern...

​​Now that we tested and rebounded violently from the 200 DMA, we beed to break the Resistance Trendline from a Downward Channel at 2087 for a ​Real Bullish Impulse. What we had was only a technical rebound.
Unless, we can range trade​ kind 2041 to 2077 for the next few trading sessions...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2071 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2077 MAX 2087...

Financials (XLF ETF) will still be a must follow today as it will lead the market...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 9.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Retail Participcants ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: is already into an Oversold Zone. ​

​​​All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.

Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2037.5 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2093.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2037 to 2073
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?
4) Retail: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Oversold Zone ​?
5) Dow Theory: DJ Transport: Too Little Too Late ?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2071 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2041 as suport and 2077 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2114.5.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2071.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay below 2071 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2071 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2077 MAX 2087...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2093 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2093 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 9.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2037 and 2073.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​​​July 7 200 DMA Tested ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2111 level on June 24, triggering the Bear Stance.

​​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​My focus is still towards a ​​Resistance Trendline that
​started back on May 7 2015 at 2070. ​A daily close below that will open the
​door for a quick test of the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 2036.​5.


​The best tech set up for me will be to test the 200 DMA and rebound... We did it already on July 6...

Now that we tested and rebounded violently from the 200 DMA, we beed to break the Resistance Trendline from a Downward Channel at 2088 for a Real Bullish Impulse. What we had was only a technical rebound.
Unless, we can range trade​ kind 2044 to 2080 for the next few trading sessions...

​​​​Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2088...

Financials (XLF ETF) will still be a must follow today as it will lead the market...

​​
​​​​​​​But we had some very interesting factors happening technically speaking;
1) We broke on June 24 a Daily Uptrend Channel with 2111 Support and 2150 as Resistance
​2) On a weekly basis​ we are getting out an old uptrend channel over 2096 - see 3rd chart below
3) On a weekly basis, we are getting back of that downard channel that started back on May 18​ at 2093
see 3rd chart below - ellipse
​4) The Dow Jones Transport testing back the Support of a Falling Wedge Pattern.
​​5) Also, the Financials (XLF ETF) false break out over 25.20 on June 18 start to be a concern to me.
​Need a Daily close above 25.20 to have a Real Break Out.

​​Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend trend til July 9.

​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


Retail Participcants ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: is already into an Oversold Zone. ​

​​​All eyes are on Greece but ​CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX is still in High Volatility Territory.

Market is pricing some fear but not panic level yet...


​​
​​​​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​1) ​On June 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096
​​​2) On June 24, we broke a Daily Uptrend Channel Support at 2111
​3) ​On June 18, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093.5
​​​​​​4) ​On June 12, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2092
​​​5) ​On June 10, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2096.5
​​​​6) ​On June 5, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2095
​7) ​​​​On June 4, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2110.1


​​​​​​Next big support is the 200 DMA at 2037 and next big resistance is the 50 DMA at 2094.
​Still Expect Volatility to prevail into the ​next few sessions and the market to trade on a choppy manner.

​​Then today I expect a range from 2061 to 2080
​​
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Complacent Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: Some Fear into that Market ?
4) Retail: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Oversold Zone ​?


​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since June 24 ) as long as we stay below 2070 on a daily close.

​​We are within a new downtrend channel that started on June 29 with 2044 as suport and 2080 as resistance.

​​We broke on July 6 a new uptrend channel that started on June 30 with 2063 as suport and 2085.5 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 19 2015 at 2115.

​​​​​​​​We have a Resistance Trendline that started back on May 7 2015 at 2070.

We have a​​ Major Support Trendline that started on December 16 2014 at 1992.

​We need to stay below 2070 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2111 (it did on June 24 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2096 MAX 2082

​​​Only a daily close above 2070 will change that scenario to a bull impulse toward 2080.5 MAX 2088...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2094 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2094 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bullss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a slow Grind Trend til July 9.​​​​​​​​ See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2038 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1987 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2061 and 2080.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.