FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
SPY DAILY TECHNICALS

February X

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at
Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 10000 evel on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.









































​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On February 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 191.20

​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ :
SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?
5) Technology Stocks: Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?
6) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ?

​​​

​​​​​
​Back to the technical levels now.       
​                                                                                               
Disclaimer



























​SPY ETF Daily    - PREMIUM USERS
​ ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SPY Daily Comments - Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ?  $SPY #Trading #spy #investing #SP500



February 5 - Executive Summary - NFP Day ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below 191.78 - High from February 3 2016
February 5

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals. Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.
​​But few of us realize that on February 3, that we retested the previous low reached back in February 2014 on SRFI then at the 276.34 level. A tiny form of capitulation we have seen yesterday on Financials. Bulls need to protect that 276 handle zone at all costs from now on... SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ?
Also, SPY retested the low made on January 27 and 28 and rebounded violently. It could be a turnaround;
next few days are critical for that as we need follow trhough...​

​​​​​​​​
Financial Markets are quite anxious about the NFP ( Non Farm Payrolls ) today expected at +188k as already the US Dollar in in its biggest weekly weakness since 2009. A weak NFP could spiral in weaker US Dollar and stocks.

As the US Dollar tested yesterday the Major Support Trendline that started back since August 24 2015
​at the 96.25 zone. IF we break that Support, it could be a game changer for commodities, foreign currencies and stocks...​

Brace for some volatility still...
​​​
​​Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 189.54 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​188.88 MAX 188.02 for now...

​​Next big support is at 186.20 and next big resistance is at 194.86
Then today I expect a range from 189.50 to 193.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On February 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 191.20

​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?
5) Technology Stocks: Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?
6) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay below 191.78 on a daily close.

We broke on February 2 an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 20 with 190.20 as support and 197.84 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 191.78 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.28 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.28 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​



​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​189.50 and 193.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​February 4 - Executive Summary - Tiny Capitulation ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below 191.78 - High from February 3 2016
​​February 4

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals. Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.
​​Also, few of us realize that we are near Bubble Zone in the Tech sectors:
​Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?


​​​​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals. Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.
​​But few of us realize that on February 3, that we retested the previous low reached back in February 2014 on SRFI then at the 276.34 level. A tiny form of capitulation we have seen yesterday on Financials. Bulls need to protect that 276 handle zone at all costs from now on... SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ?

Also, SPY retested the low made on January 27 and 28 and rebounded violently. It could be a turnaround;
next few days are critical for that as we need follow trhough...​

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 189.54 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​188.88 MAX 188.02 for now...

​​Next big support is at 186.20 and next big resistance is at 194.86
Then today I expect a range from 190.60 to 193.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On February 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 191.20

​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?
5) Technology Stocks: Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?
6) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay below 191.78 on a daily close.

We broke on February 2 an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 20 with 190.20 as support and 197.84 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 191.78 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 191.78 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.37 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.37 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​



​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​190.60 and 193.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
February 3 - Executive Summary - No Mercy ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 191.97 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below 191.97 - High from February 2 2016
February 3

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 191.58 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​We did make a new high yesterday but failed to close above January 29 close. Also, weak Financials are not a sign of technical strenght: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?
Bulls need absolutely to protect the previous break out zone at 190.56...


​​​Market volatility continue and gives no mercy to investors and can bring many false trading signals. Financials volatility (XLF ETF) is quite a concern to me because it shown instability.

​​Also, few of us realize that we are near Bubble Zone in the Tech sectors:
​Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?


​​​​​​Only a daily close above 191.97 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 189.54 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​188.88 MAX 188.02 for now...

​​Next big support is at 186.20 and next big resistance is at 191.97
Then today I expect a range from 189.50 to 191.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On January 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 192.87
​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​4) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?
5) Technology Stocks: Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since February 2 ) as long as we stay below 191.97 on a daily close.

We broke on February 2 an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 20 with 190.20 as support and 197.84 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 191.97 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 191.97 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.88 MAX 194.58 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.47 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.47 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern til February 3. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​189.50 and 191.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​February 2 - Executive Summary - Any Follow Through ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 191.58 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​190.56 MAX 189.88 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 191.58 - Low from January 2016
​​February 2

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​Month End buying spree was stronger than I thought but here the Bulls need a follow through this week and to protect at all costs the 190.56 zone on a daily close, unless false break out it will become...
Divergence prevail between the Dow Jones Transport and the Mighty SP500 Index:
​​​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?


We did make a new high yesterday but failed to close above January 29 close. Also, weak Financials are not a sign of technical strenght: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?

Bulls need absolutely to protect the previous break out zone at 190.56...

​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 193.88 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​194.86 MAX 195.33.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.58 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 189.88 for now...

​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 194.58
Then today I expect a range from 191.60 to 193.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On January 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 192.87
​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​4) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?
4) Weak Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: No Market Participation ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 26 ) as long as we stay above 191.58 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 20 with 190.20 as support and 197.84 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 191.58 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 191.58 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 189.88 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.56 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.56 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern til February 3. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​191.60 and 193.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​February 1 - Executive Summary - Any Follow Through ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 190.56 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​189.44 MAX 188.02 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 190.56 - Channel Support Trendline from May 2014
February 1

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​BOJ surprise this morning: Stocks Rally With U.S. Futures as Surprise BOJ Easing Sinks Yen
​Bulls still need a close above 190.56 to get out of that consolidation zone and open the door to the 193.41 to 194.86 handles zone on SPY. See chart below - Ellipse
​​Also Month End should bring some asset class rebalancing : SP500 Index down -8.24% since end of last year compare to the IEF ETF ( Mid-Term US Treasury Bonds ) at +2.90%. So expect some buying of stocks to sell bonds. I can t remember having seen that big difference in terms of performance lately...

​​​​​​​​​Month End buying spree was stronger than I thought but here the Bulls need a follow through this week and to protect at all costs the 190.56 zone on a daily close, unless false break out it will become...

Divergence prevail between the Dow Jones Transport and the Mighty SP500 Index:
​​​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?


​​Only a daily close above 193.88 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​194.86 MAX 195.33.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 190.56 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​189.44 MAX 188.02 for now...

​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 195.33
Then today I expect a range from 191.60 to 193.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On January 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 192.87
​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​4) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Range Trade ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technicals: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Ratio Technicals: Major Support Broken ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 26 ) as long as we stay above 190.56 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 20 with 189.44 as support and 196.90 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 190.56 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 190.56 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​189.44 MAX 188.02 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.64 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.64 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern til February 3. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​191.60 and 193.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 29 - Executive Summary - Month End ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 188.38 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​186.91 MAX 186.20 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 188.38 - Channel Support Trendline.
​​​​January 29

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
SPY ETF reached and tested again the 190.56 without closing above it; It is the resistance level the Bulls need to break to push higher...​
FED dovish statement was dovish especially when they mentioned the Global Risks and from then stocks sank tremendously...
Few realize that debt is becoming a real burden on corporations:​​​​
The $29 Trillion Corporate Debt Hangover That Could Spark a Recession
​​


​BOJ surprise this morning: Stocks Rally With U.S. Futures as Surprise BOJ Easing Sinks Yen

Bulls still need a close above 190.56 to get out of that consolidation zone and open the door to the 193.41 to 194.86 handles zone on SPY. See chart below - Ellipse
​​
Also Month End should bring some asset class rebalancing : SP500 Index down -8.24% since end of last year compare to the IEF ETF ( Mid-Term US Treasury Bonds ) at +2.90%. So expect some buying of stocks to sell bonds. I can t remember having seen that big difference in terms of performance lately...

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 190.56 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.41 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 188.38 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.91 MAX 186.20 for now...

​​Next big support is at 185.52 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 188.40 to 191.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?
5) Market Sentiment: SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 26 ) as long as we stay above 188.38 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 22 with 187.06 as support and 190.29 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 188.38 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 188.38 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​186.91 MAX 186.20 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.73 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.73 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern on January 29. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​188.40 and 191.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 28 - Executive Summary - 190.56 Failed Again ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 187.06 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 187.06 - Channel Support Trendline from January 22 2016.
​​January 28

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
SPY ETF continue to be triggered by Oil price and the Financials. Bad Volatility and choppy market will persist as FOMC this afternoon...
​​​China Financial Turmoil continue:​​ The Number Every China Stock Investor's Watching
We re only in a Dead Cat Bounce... ​​Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...

SPY ETF reached and tested again the 190.56 without closing above it; It is the resistance level the Bulls need to break to push higher...​

FED dovish statement was dovish especially when they mentioned the Global Risks and from then stocks sank tremendously...

Few realize that debt is becoming a real burden on corporations:​​​​
The $29 Trillion Corporate Debt Hangover That Could Spark a Recession
​​

​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 190.56 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.26 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 187.06 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

​​Next big support is at 185.52 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 187.10 to 190.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?
5) Market Sentiment: SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 26 ) as long as we stay above 187.06 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 22 with 187.06 as support and 190.29 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 187.06 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 187.06 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.83 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.83 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 22 trend til January 28. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​187.10 and 190.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 27 - Executive Summary - The Wall ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 187.14 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 187.14 - Channel Support Trendline from January 22 2016.
January 27

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 188.87 level on January 26, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​The market did not bring any follow through yesterday and failed to close above 190.56 on January 22, a weak technical set up indeed... As long as we do not have a daily close above 190.56, technicals remains weak...
Expect very choppy markets tough to trade...
​Financials perform poorly and are still the lead (as Oil price ) for the market as a whole:
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?
​​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stocks Plunge to 13-Month Low Amid Capital Outflow Concern

SPY ETF continue to be triggered by Oil price and the Financials. Bad Volatility and choppy market will persist as FOMC this afternoon...

​​​China Financial Turmoil continue:​​ The Number Every China Stock Investor's Watching

​​
We re only in a Dead Cat Bounce... ​​Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...

​​​​​Only a daily close above 190.56 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.26 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 187.14 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

​​Next big support is at 185.52 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 187.10 to 190.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?
5) Market Sentiment: SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 26 ) as long as we stay above 187.14 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on January 22 with 187.14 as support and 190.42 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 187.14 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 187.14 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 185.52 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.93 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 204.93 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 22 trend til January 28. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​187.10 and 190.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 26 - Executive Summary - NO Follow Through ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 187.66 level on January 23, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 188.87 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​190.56 MAX 191.14 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 188.87 - Day High of January 21 2016.
​​​January 26

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 187.66 level on January 23, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market have become so nervous that the pure and simple Risk On Risk Off is in summary the way OIL price is evolving; a scary trend indeed: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?
So next few trading sessions are critical to have a follow through: stay above 187.66 on a daily close and break the 190.56 strong resistance on a daily close also...​
​As I wrote Last Friday, I was expecting a dead Cat Bounce toward 190.11 MAX 190.56.
Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave to 193.26 MAX 194.86


​​The market did not bring any follow through yesterday and failed to close above 190.56 on January 22, a weak technical set up indeed... As long as we do not have a daily close above 190.56, technicals remains weak...
Expect very choppy markets tough to trade...

Financials perform poorly and are still the lead (as Oil price ) for the market as a whole:
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stocks Plunge to 13-Month Low Amid Capital Outflow Concern


​​​​​Only a daily close above 188.87 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 191.14.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 184.83 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​184.28 MAX 182.64 for now...

​​Next big support is at 184.83 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 186.20 to 188.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and Oil price will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?
5) Market Sentiment: SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since January 25 ) as long as we stay below 188.87 on a daily close.

We broke on January 22 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 180.31 as support and 187.66 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 188.87 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 188.87 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 191.14 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.03 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.03 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 22 trend til January 28. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​186.20 and 188.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 25 - Executive Summary - Need Follow Through ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 187.66 level on January 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 187.66 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​186.20 MAX 184.64 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 187.66 - Day Low of January 14 2016.
​​January 25

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 187.66 level on January 22, triggering the Bull Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
I wrote yesterday that: ​ Tested the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 then at 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend.
​Second sign: ​​​​​​Nice consolidation on January 21 as no new low in place and we tested the resistance trendline then at 188.76 and failed to break. I expect a dead cat bounce towards 190.11 MAX 190.56.
Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...​


Market have become so nervous that the pure and simple Risk On Risk Off is in summary the way OIL price is evolving; a scary trend indeed: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?

So next few trading sessions are critical to have a follow through: stay above 187.66 on a daily close and break the 190.56 strong resistance on a daily close also...​

As I wrote Last Friday, I was expecting a dead Cat Bounce toward 190.11 MAX 190.56.
Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave to 193.26 MAX 194.86


​​​​Only a daily close above 190.56 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​191.93 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 187.66 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 184.64 for now...

​​Next big support is at 186.20 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 187.70 to 191.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technical Behavior: A SP(OIL)ed Market ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since January 22 ) as long as we stay above 187.66 on a daily close.

We broke on January 22 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 180.31 as support and 187.66 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 187.66 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 187.66 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.20 MAX 184.64 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.14 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.14 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 22 trend til January 28. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​187.70 and 191.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 22 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 187.66 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​190.11 MAX 190.56 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 187.66 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.
​​January 22

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​Yesterday, we did test the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 thenat 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend. For that, we need ideally a daily close today above yesterday s high at 187.50.
The level on SPY ETF of that Major Support Trendline is at 182.64. See 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline.
​Even if the correction in price in Financials was more servere than in August 2015, we did not have that spike in Volatility and the market have been more orderly in that bear trend: ​
​SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
​That is was puzzle me at this stage.
​​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stock Rout Seen Getting Uglier as Derivative Trigger Looms


I wrote yesterday that: ​ Tested the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 then at 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend.

Second sign: ​​​​​​Nice consolidation on January 21 as no new low in place and we tested the resistance trendline then at 188.76 and failed to break. I expect a dead cat bounce towards 190.11 MAX 190.56.
Only ​a daily close above 190.56 will bring a more powerfull Bullish wave...​


​​Only a daily close above 187.66 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​190.11 MAX 190.56.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 185.52 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​183.90 MAX 182.69 for now...

​​Next big support is at 182.69 and next big resistance is at 190.56
Then today I expect a range from 186.10 to 190.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?
5) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 187.66 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 180.31 as support and 187.66 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 187.66 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 187.66 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​190.11 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.23 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.23 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​186.10 and 190.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​January 21 - Executive Summary - Hammers Land ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 188.76 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​190.11 MAX 190.56 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 188.76 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.

January 21

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yestday I wrote:​​
Market behavior on January 19 after a long week end was more expected to have a stronger consolidation than we had. We opened very strong and faded all day til almost the close, a weak technical behavior indeed.
But the most interesting technical factor is that we are testing the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 and near of a break down: SP500 Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?
​​The level on SPY ETF of that Major Support Trendline is at 182.60. See 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline.


​Yesterday, we did test the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 thenat 182.60 on SPY and rebounded violently to create a Hammer that could be a first sign the market getting ready for a consolidation (or a strong dead cat bounce) from a nasty bear trend. For that, we need ideally a daily close today above yesterday s high at 187.50.

​​​​The level on SPY ETF of that Major Support Trendline is at 182.64. See 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline.

Even if the correction in price in Financials was more servere than in August 2015, we did not have that spike in Volatility and the market have been more orderly in that bear trend: ​
​SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?

That is was puzzle me at this stage.

​​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stock Rout Seen Getting Uglier as Derivative Trigger Looms

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 188.76 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​190.11 MAX 190.56.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 185.52 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​183.90 MAX 182.64 for now...

​​Next big support is at 182.64 and next big resistance is at 188.76
​Then today I expect a range from 183.90 to 187.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?
5) Volatility: SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?

​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 188.76 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 180.27 as support and 188.76 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 188.76 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 188.76 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​190.11 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.38 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.38 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​183.90 and 187.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​January 20 - Executive Summary - Bad Behavior ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 190.11 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​190.56 MAX 191.93 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 190.11 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.
​​January 20

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Yestday I wrote:​​
So as expected, market did not want to hold risk for the long week-end ( was a tiny capitulation pattern ) and we have another Dead Cat Bounce. Bulls need to have a Daily close above that Downtrend Channel Resistance Trendline that started since December 30 for today at 191.83.​
​​​Market have been switching to high liquid stocks lately, another sign of weak technicals on a macro basis:
​US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China GDP Slows to Weakest Since 2009 on Manufacturing Slide

Market behavior on January 19 after a long week end was more expected to have a stronger consolidation than we had. We opened very strong and faded all day til almost the close, a weak technical behavior indeed.

But the most interesting technical factor is that we are testing the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 and near of a break down: SP500 Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?

​​The level on SPY ETF of that Major Support Trendline is at 182.60. See 1rst chart below - Blue Trendline.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 190.11 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 191.93.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 186.20 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​183.90 MAX 182.60 for now...

​​Next big support is at 182.60 and next big resistance is at 190.11
​Then today I expect a range from 182.60 to 186.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
4) Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ?


​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 190.11 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 182.60 as support and 190.11 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 190.11 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 190.11 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 191.93 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.44 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.44 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​182.60 and 186.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 19 - Executive Summary - Tiny Capitulation ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 191.83 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.01 MAX 194.86 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 191.83 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.
​​January 19

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Please take note that all the Financial and Technical Analysis for Premium Services will be not be provided beyond February 5 2016. It has been a tough decision to make for me.

Go the Subcription page and cancel the appropriate service:
​http://www.financialiceberg.com/premium_subscription.html

I would like to tell to all my clients a special thanks for the confidence you showed me through the years.
Regards, Jean-Pierre Desloges.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stocks Enter Bear Market as State-Fueled Rally Evaporates
We still have Daily lower ​highs and lower lows.
​The real question is: who want to hold risk over a long week end?
Expect a lot of bad volatility still...

So as expected, market did not want to hold risk for the long week-end ( was a tiny capitulation pattern ) and we have another Dead Cat Bounce. Bulls need to have a Daily close above that Downtrend Channel Resistance Trendline that started since December 30 for today at 191.83.​
​​​
Market have been switching to high liquid stocks lately, another sign of weak technicals on a macro basis:
​US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?

​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China GDP Slows to Weakest Since 2009 on Manufacturing Slide

​​​​Only a daily close above 191.83 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.01 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 187.66 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.94 MAX 185.52 for now...

​​Next big support is at 183.67 and next big resistance is at 191.83
​Then today I expect a range from 188.40 to 191.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Liquidity: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?


​​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 191.83 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 30 with 183.67 as support and 191.83 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 191.83 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 191.83 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.01 MAX 194.86 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.53 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.53 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​188.40 and 191.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​January 15 - Executive Summary - Pressure Still ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 193.01 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.41 MAX 194.86 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 193.01 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.
January 15

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 5 to 7 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
China Financial Turmoil continue: A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Behind Market Gyrations
​​​​​​​​​​​​It is back firing into US financial sector: SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Down ?
Yesterday was almost a textbook example: Near testing the 195.19 Bullish break out and tumbled and broke 190.56 major support and made new lows...


China Financial Turmoil continue: China Stocks Enter Bear Market as State-Fueled Rally Evaporates

We still have Daily lower ​highs and lower lows.
​The real question is: who want to hold risk over a long week end?
Expect a lot of bad volatility still...

​​​
​​​​Only a daily close above 193.01 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​193.41 MAX 194.86.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 188.38 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​187.66 MAX 186.94 for now...

​​Next big support is at 187.88 and next big resistance is at 193.01
​Then today I expect a range from 186.90 to 191.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?
4) Oversold Conditions: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
5) Major Support Trendline: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: DJT Testing Major Support ?
6) Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Down ?


​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 193.01 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 193.01 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 193.01 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.41 MAX 194.86 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.62 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​186.90 and 191.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 14 - Executive Summary - Near Miss and Tumbled ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 194.11 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​194.86 MAX 195.85 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 194.11 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015.
​​January 14

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 5 to 7 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market is trying to a painful consolidation process and feel like near reversal...
​Dow Jones Transport testing a Monthly Major Support Trendline: ​
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: DJT Testing Major Support ?

China Financial Turmoil continue: A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Behind Market Gyrations

​​​​​​​​​​​​It is back firing into US financial sector: SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Down ?

Yesterday was almost a textbook example: Near testing the 195.19 Bullish break out and tumbled and broke 190.56 major support and made new lows...

​​Only a daily close above 194.11 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​194.86 MAX 195.85.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 188.38 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.93 MAX 185.78 for now...

​​Next big support is at 186.93 and next big resistance is at 191.11
​Then today I expect a range from 186.90 to 191.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?
4) Oversold Conditions: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
5) Major Support Trendline: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: DJT Testing Major Support ?
6) Financials: SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Down ?


​​
​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 194.11 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 194.11 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 194.11 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​194.86 MAX 195.85 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.69 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.69 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​186.90 and 191.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 13 - Executive Summary - Near Reversal ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 195.19 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​195.85 MAX 196.80 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 195.19 - Opening from January 8 2016.
​​January 13

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 5 to 7 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market start to be into oversold conditions as many technical indicators including the SKEW and VIX;
​I will not be surprise of a dead cat bounce within the next few trading sessions:
​ SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
Only a daily close above 196.61 will turn to a Bullish wave from a a dead cat bounce stance.

Market is trying to a painful consolidation process and feel like near reversal...

Dow Jones Transport testing a Monthly Major Support Trendline: ​
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: DJT Testing Major Support ?

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.19 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.85 MAX 196.80.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.15 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.58 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 195.19
​Then today I expect a range from 192.20 to 195.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?
4) Oversold Conditions: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
5) Major Support Trendline: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: DJT Testing Major Support ?

​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 195.19 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.19 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.19 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​195.85 MAX 196.61 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.79 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.79 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.20 and 195.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 12 - Executive Summary - Oversold Conditions ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 195.03 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​195.85 MAX 196.61 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 195.03 - Resistance Trendline from December 31 2015 channel..
​​January 12

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 5 to 7 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Pressure is still on US Financial assets as Asian stocks turmoil continue:
​Asia Stocks Fall to Lowest Since 2011, Extending Global Selloff
In fact, the Yuan devaluation is creating that shockwave to a potential currency war in the Asian Economies.
​SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?
Dead cat bounce last Friday was weaker than expected even with a very good Non Farm Payrolls number...

Market start to be into oversold conditions as many technical indicators including the SEW and VIX;
​I will not be surprise of a dead cat bounce within the next few trading sessions:
​ SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?

Only a daily close above 196.61 will turn to a Bullish wave froma a dead cat bounce stance.

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.03 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.85 MAX 196.61.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.15 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.58 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 196.61
​Then today I expect a range from 190.60 to 194.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?
4) Oversold Conditions: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 195.03 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.03 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.03 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​195.85 MAX 196.61 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.85 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.85 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​190.60 and 194.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 11 - Executive Summary - Pressure Still ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 195.85 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​197.01 MAX 197.92 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 195.85 - Day High from January 8 2016..
​​
​January 11

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 5 to 7 days...

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
China financial turmoil continue (China Stocks Gain as State Funds Buy, Circuit Breaker Scrapped)
​but a dead cat bounce today expected as we are into short term oversold conditions.
So dead cat bounce towards 196.26 to 197.60. A daily close above 197.60 will turn from a dead cat bounce to a bigger move to MAX 199.47 and fall back.
​​​​​​We still need to close the gap from January 6 low at 197.60 and January 7 high at 197.44.


Pressure is still on US Financial assets as Asian stocks turmoil continue:
​Asia Stocks Fall to Lowest Since 2011, Extending Global Selloff

In fact, the Yuan devaluation is creating that shockwave to a potential currency war in the Asian Economies.
​SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?

Dead cat bounce last Friday was weaker than expected even with a very good Non Farm Payrolls number...

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.85 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​197.01 MAX 197.92.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.49 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.58 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 197.92
​Then today I expect a range from 190.60 to 194.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility: SP500: Follow the Chinese Yuan My Dear ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 195.85 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.85 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.85 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​197.01 MAX 197.92 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.92 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.92 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​190.60 and 194.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 8 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 197.11 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​198.94 MAX 199.47 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 197.60 - Day Low from January 6 2016..
​​January 8

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 7 to 10 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​China financial turmoil continue to rock US financial markets:
​China's Stock Traders Go Home After 29 Minutes: Chart
​​Risk taking is still on decline since December 2015 for the Mighty SP500 Index:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
Market is into a Capitulation Phase as good liquid stocks start to be beaten quite badly. So we can have a violent reversal within the next few tradings sessions.

China financial turmoil continue (China Stocks Gain as State Funds Buy, Circuit Breaker Scrapped)
​but a dead cat bounce today expected as we are into short term oversold conditions.
So dead cat bounce towards 196.26 to 197.60. A daily close above 197.60 will turn from a dead cat bounce to a bigger move to MAX 199.47 and fall back.

​​​​​​We still need to close the gap from January 6 low at 197.60 and January 7 high at 197.44.

​​Only a daily close above 197.60 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​198.94 MAX 199.47.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 193.59 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.56 MAX 191.61 for now...

​​Next big support is at 192.56 and next big resistance is at 198.94
​Then today I expect a range from 194.00 to 197.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​8 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Seasonalities: SP500 Index Seasonalities: All hope on the January Effect ?
6) Smallest Capitalization: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Testing Critical Support Trendline ?
7) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
8) Risk Taking: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 197.60 on a daily close.

We broke on January 7 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 197.60 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 197.60 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​198.94 MAX 199.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 205.98 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 205.98 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​194.00 and 197.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

January 7 - Executive Summary - Capitulation Phase ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 197.60 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​198.98 MAX 200.41 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 197.60 - Day Low from January 6 2016..
​​January 7

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 7 to 10 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
The Dow Jones Transport weakness is a concern on a macro basis as that trend continue:
​DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

​​​​​​​​​China financial turmoil continue to rock US financial markets:
​China's Stock Traders Go Home After 29 Minutes: Chart

​​Risk taking is still on decline since December 2015 for the Mighty SP500 Index:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?

Market is into a Capitulation Phase as good liquid stocks start to be beaten quite badly. So we can have a violent reversal within the next few tradings sessions.

​​​Only a daily close above 197.60 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​198.98 MAX 200.41.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 194.25 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​193.76 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​Next big support is at 192.56 and next big resistance is at 198.98
​Then today I expect a range from 193.00 to 197.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​8 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Seasonalities: SP500 Index Seasonalities: All hope on the January Effect ?
6) Smallest Capitalization: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Testing Critical Support Trendline ?
7) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
8) Risk Taking: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 197.60 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 196.83 as support and 203.87 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 197.60 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 197.60 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​198.98 MAX 200.41 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.06 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.06 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.00 and 197.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​January 6 - Executive Summary - Downtrend Channel Still ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 201.90 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​202.36 MAX 203.94 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 201.90 - Resistance Trendline from December 30 2015..

January 6

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 7 to 10 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
The market still favor the most liquid stocks over the smallest less liquid stocks; a bearish behavior​​ indeed...
And also, the Financials (XLF ETF) is under tremendous pressure and still the lead in that market.
​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

The Dow Jones Transport weakness is a concern on a macro basis as that trend continue:
​DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 201.90 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.36 MAX 203.94.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 198.59 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.48 MAX 196.80 for now...

​​Next big support is at 197.48 and next big resistance is at 202.36
​Then today I expect a range from 198.00 to 200.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Seasonalities: SP500 Index Seasonalities: All hope on the January Effect ?
6) Smallest Capitalization: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Testing Critical Support Trendline ?
7) Dow Jones Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 201.90 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 197.48 as support and 204.83 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 201.90 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 201.90 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​202.36 MAX 203.94 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.12 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.12 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​198.00 and 200.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
January 5 - Executive Summary - January Effect ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 202.07 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​205.19 MAX 206.02 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 202.07 - Resistance Trendline from September 29 2015..
​​​January 5

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 7 to 10 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​All hope in on the seasonality called the January Effect.​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

The market still favor the most liquid stocks over the smallest less liquid stocks; a bearish behavior​​ indeed...
And also, the Financials (XLF ETF) is under tremendous pressure and still the lead in that market.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 202.07 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​203.05 MAX 204.12.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 199.28 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​198.59 MAX 197.98 for now...

​​Next big support is at 199.28 and next big resistance is at 203.05
​Then today I expect a range from 199.20 to 201.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Seasonalities: SP500 Index Seasonalities: All hope on the January Effect ?
6) Smallest Capitalization: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Testing Critical Support Trendline ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 202.07 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 197.98 as support and 205.46 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 202.07 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 202.07 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​203.05 MAX 204.12 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.16 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.16 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​199.20 and 201.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​January 4 - Executive Summary - January Effect ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 203.85 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​205.19 MAX 206.02 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 203.85 - Resistance Trendline from August 28 2015..
January 4

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Happy New Year​
No back up PC for 7 to 10 days...

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​So the fact that we came back below 206.36 on December 17 tell me we had a false Break Out.
( See chart below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse )​
​Also we came back below the 20, 50 and 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) in a one day move...
​We made a new high on December 17 vs Dec 16 and closed almost at a new low vs Dec 16 then having a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. So Major Rejection from the market​ of the 208.50 zone...
Then we are back into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.08 as support and 205.93 as resistance.

All hope in on the seasonality called the January Effect.​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22.

​​​Only a daily close above 203.85 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​205.19 MAX 206.02.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 201.88 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.87 MAX 199.32 for now...


​​Next big support is at 199.83 and next big resistance is at 206.02
​Then today I expect a range from 200.00 to 203.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 31, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 205.42
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 30, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.25
​3) ​On December 30, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.81
​​​​​​​​​



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Seasonalities: SP500 Index Seasonalities: All hope on the January Effect ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 203.85 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 29 with 203.20 as support and 206.02 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 203.85 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 203.85 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​205.19 MAX 206.02 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.20 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.20 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern from January 6 trend til January 22. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​200.00 and 203.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
December 18 - Executive Summary - False Break Out?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 205.93 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​206.41 MAX 207.38 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 205.93 - Resistance Trendline from December 2 2015..
December 18

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 206.36 level on December 17, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
The surprise for me was that the Financials XLF gained since December 14 +4.0% in performance, that helped tremendously SPY breaking that downtrend Channel Resistance Yesterday then at 206.74.
( See Chart Below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse )​
That Trendline which becomes Support is now for today at 206.36. Bulls must protect that level for a real break out, unless it will be only a major dead cat bounce FED driven style...​​
Also we came back above the 20, 50 and 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) in a one day move...

​​​​​So the fact that we came back below 206.36 on December 17 tell me we had a false Break Out.
( See chart below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse )​
​Also we came back below the 20, 50 and 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) in a one day move...

​We made a new high on December 17 vs Dec 16 and closed almost at a new low vs Dec 16 then having a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. So Major Rejection from the market​ of the 208.50 zone...

Then we are back into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.08 as support and 205.93 as resistance.

​​Only a daily close above 205.93 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​206.41 MAX 207.38.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 202.90 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.51 MAX 199.95 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 23.
​​Next big support is at 200.58 and next big resistance is at 205.93
​Then today I expect a range from 201.50 to 204.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) and High Yield (HYG ETF) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​1) ​On December 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.56
​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 17, we broke the 200 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.36
​​​​​​​​​3) ​On December 17, we broke the 50 DMA on the dowside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.30
​4) ​On December 16, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.44
​​​​​​​​​5) ​On December 16, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.37
​6) ​On December 16, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.10



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Yuan unpeg: Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?
6) Oversold: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
7) FED : Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 17 ) as long as we stay below 205.93 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.08 as support and 205.93 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 205.93 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 205.93 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​206.41 MAX 207.38 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.33 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 206.33 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.50 and 204.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 17 - Executive Summary - Broken Channel?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.14 level on December 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 206.36 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​202.80 MAX 202.51 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.36 - Trendline from December 2 2015..
​​​December 17

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.14 level on December 15, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
As expected, with all short term technicals oversold, the market rebounded before the FED, profit taking...
​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.91 as support and 206.74 as resistance.
​​​​​​​​​Fed Day as a lot too much focus on rate hike only; focus is put on as already monetary aggregates are in a restrictive mode, hiking rates will be a tiny technical factor: Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?
I will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections ( forward guidance ) by the FOMC on inflation and GDP.
Last one from September: Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes
​Expect tremendous volatility today with the FED, so I suggest reducing risk...​​

The surprise for me was that the Financials XLF gained since December 14 +4.0% in performance, that helped tremendously SPY breaking that downtrend Channel Resistance Yesterday then at 206.74.
( See Chart Below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse )​

That Trendline which becomes Support is now for today at 206.36. Bulls must protect that level for a real break out, unless it will be only a major dead cat bounce FED driven style...​​

Also we came back above the 20, 50 and 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) in a one day move...

​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.97 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.62 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.36 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.42 MAX 205.03 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 23.
​​Next big support is at 202.80 and next big resistance is at 206.74
​Then today I expect a range from 207.50 to 209.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​1) ​On December 16, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.44
​​​​​​​​​2) ​On December 16, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.37
​3) ​On December 16, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.10
​​​4) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​5) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​6) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​7) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Yuan unpeg: Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?
6) Oversold: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
7) FED : Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 15 ) as long as we stay above 206.36 on a daily close.

We broke on December 16 a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.91 as support and 206.74 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 206.36 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 206.36 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.42 MAX 205.03 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.36 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.36 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.50 and 209.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

December 16 - Executive Summary - FED Day?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.14 level on December 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 204.18 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​202.80 MAX 202.51 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 204.18 - Low from December 9 2015..
​​​December 16

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.14 level on December 15, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Yesterday we reached a tiny pattern of capitulation as we made a new low and rebounded violently:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​ But being short here is a less risk reward interesting trade.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 201.38 as support and 207.21 as resistance.

As expected, with all short term technicals oversold, the market rebounded before the FED, profit taking...

​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.91 as support and 206.74 as resistance.
​​​​​​​​
​Fed Day as a lot too much focus on rate hike only; focus is put on as already monetary aggregates are in a restrictive mode, hiking rates will be a tiny technical factor: Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?

I will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections ( forward guidance ) by the FOMC on inflation and GDP.
Last one from September: Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes

Expect tremendous volatility today with the FED, so I suggest reducing risk...​​

​​Only a daily close above 206.74 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.44 MAX 208.08.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.18 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​202.80 MAX 201.51 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 23.
​​Next big support is at 202.80 and next big resistance is at 206.74
​Then today I expect a range from 202.80 to 207.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​2) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​3) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​4) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Yuan unpeg: Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?
6) Oversold: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?
7) FED : Fed s Stealth Tightening: Already Started ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 15 ) as long as we stay above 204.18 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 200.91 as support and 206.74 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 204.18 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 204.18 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​202.80 MAX 201.51 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.37 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.37 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 23. See links above.

FED MACRO TECHNICAL LEVELS
​Support: 202.80 210.51 and 199.95 Resistance: 206.74 207.95 and 209.11

​​
​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​202.80 and 207.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 15 - Executive Summary - Tiny Capitulation?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 204.14 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​204.99 MAX 205.96 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 204.14 - High from December 11 2015..
December 15

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Last Friday was a demolition derby style of market with the Chinese unpeg story:
​Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?
We broke a Support Trendline that started back on December 16 2014 (see chart below - thick Grey Trendline) then at 204.67 and traded below another Support Trendline that started back on October 21 2015 then at 202.72. They becomes resistances at 202.75 and 203.84.
So a dead cat bounce to those levels expected before resuming downtrend.
Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 207.76 as support and 207.57 as resistance.

Yesterday we reached a tiny pattern of capitulation as we made a new low and rebounded violently:
​SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?

Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​ But being short here is a less risk reward interesting trade.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 201.38 as support and 207.21 as resistance.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 204.14 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​204.99 MAX 205.96.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 201.38 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.85 MAX 199.95 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 200.85 and next big resistance is at 204.99
​Then today I expect a range from 202.20 to 204.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​2) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​3) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​4) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Yuan unpeg: Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?
6) Oversold: SP500: High/Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Behavior lowest since May 2013 ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 204.14 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 201.38 as support and 207.21 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 204.14 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 201.38 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.85 MAX 199.95 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.40 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.40 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​202.20 and 204.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 14 - Executive Summary - Another dead cat bounce?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 204.82 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​205.91 MAX 206.45 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 204.82 - Broken Trendline from December 16 2014..
​​December 14

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
We had the expected dead cat bounce but stronger that I expected. We failed to stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) then at 206.52.
​​We are near a Support Trendline that started back on September 22 2015 (see chart below - thich Grey Trendline ) today at 204.67. This is the Last Call for Bulls.
​We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 202.18 as support and 207.98 as resistance.

Last Friday was a demolition derby style of market with the Chinese unpeg story:
​Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?

We broke a Support Trendline that started back on December 16 2014 (see chart below - thick Grey Trendline) then at 204.67 and traded below another Support Trendline that started back on October 21 2015 then at 202.72. They becomes resistances at 202.75 and 203.84.

So a dead cat bounce to those levels expected before resuming downtrend.
Seasonals usually turn on a bullish trend around December 15, will the market wait for the FED meeting wednesday to lift off? Probably...​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​We are still into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 207.76 as support and 207.57 as resistance.

​​Only a daily close above 204.82 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​205.91 MAX 206.45.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 201.76 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.97 MAX 200.05 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 200.97 and next big resistance is at 204.82
​Then today I expect a range from 201.80 to 204.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​2) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​3) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​4) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Yuan unpeg: Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 204.82 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 201.76 as support and 207.57 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 204.82 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 201.76 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.97 MAX 200.05 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.45 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.45 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.80 and 204.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 11 - Executive Summary - Channel ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 207.60 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​207.98 MAX 208.46 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 207.60 - 20 DMA.
​​December 11

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We tested on December 9 a Support Trendline that started back on September 22 2015 (see chart below - thich Grey Trendline ) then at 204.43 and today at 204.47. This is the Last Call for Bulls.
We are into a dead cat bounce to 205.33 MAX 206.52.
​​
We had the expected dead cat bounce but stronger that I expected. We failed to stay above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) then at 206.52.

​​We are near a Support Trendline that started back on September 22 2015 (see chart below - thich Grey Trendline ) today at 204.67. This is the Last Call for Bulls.

​We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 202.18 as support and 207.98 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.60 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.98 MAX 208.46.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.67 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.31 MAX 202.55 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 204.67 and next big resistance is at 206.49
​Then today I expect a range from 204.60 to 207.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​2) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​3) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​4) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
6) Dow Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds - Part II ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 207.60 on a daily close.

We are into a Downtrend Channel that started back on December 2 with 202.18 as support and 207.98 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 8 an Uptrend Channel that started back on December 1 with 208.23 as support and 212.64 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 207.60 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 204.67 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.31 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.49 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 206.49 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​204.60 and 207.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​December 10 - Executive Summary - Dead cat bounce ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 207.69 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​208.59 MAX 209.73 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 207.69 - 20 DMA.
December 10

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Divergence prevail as Dow Jones Transport closed below its low reached on October 13 2014 as stated in my daily research: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds - Part II ?
Many markets are within a Wedge Pattern ready to explode: Bonds (TLT ETF), Stocks and US Dollar Index.
So expect volatility to continue...​

We tested on December 9 a Support Trendline that started back on September 22 2015 (see chart below - thich Grey Trendline ) then at 204.43 and today at 204.47. This is the Last Call for Bulls.

We are into a dead cat bounce to 205.33 MAX 206.52.
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.69 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​208.59 MAX 209.73.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 205.33 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.47 MAX 203.24 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 204.47 and next big resistance is at 206.52
​Then today I expect a range from 204.40 to 207.00.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) ​On December 9, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.55
​​​2) ​On December 8, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.91
​​​3) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​4) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
6) Dow Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds - Part II ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 207.69 on a daily close.

We broke on December 8 an Uptrend Channel that started back on December 1 with 208.23 as support and 212.64 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 207.69 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 205.33 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.47 MAX 203.24 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.52 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 206.52 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​204.40 and 207.00.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

December 9 - Executive Summary - Divergence Prevail ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 208.83 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​209.62 MAX 210.44 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 208.83 - Old Channel Resistance Trendline.
​​December 9

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Well, that kind of market with huge squeeze​ followed by quick bear reversal is a killer; welcome to saloon s door experiment. I think that behavior will continue til year end...

Divergence prevail as Dow Jones Transport closed below its low reached on October 13 2014 as stated in my daily research: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds - Part II ?

Many markets are within a Wedge Pattern ready to explode: Bonds (TLT ETF), Stocks and US Dollar Index.
So expect volatility to continue...​

​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 208.83 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​209.62 MAX 210.44.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.20 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.98 MAX 204.26 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 206.57 and next big resistance is at 210.43
​Then today I expect a range from 205.00 to 207.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​2) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62
​​​​3) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
4) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​5) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​6) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?
6) Dow Theory: DJ Transport / DJ Industrial Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds - Part II ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 208.83 on a daily close.

We broke on December 8 an Uptrend Channel that started back on December 1 with 208.23 as support and 212.64 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 208.83 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 206.20 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.98 MAX 204.26 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.55 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.55 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​205.00 and 207.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​December 8 - Executive Summary - Saloon s Door Experiment?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.32 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​210.43 MAX 211.00 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 209.23 - Old Channel Support Trendline.
​December 8

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close Below the 208.86 level on December 7, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) last Friday Market Reaction was a total surprise to me. I was expecting only a dead cat bounce but we had a strong reversal day on very strong volume.
We are back near a ​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on February 2 2015 Today s level is at 210.32. IF we break that on a daily close, expect another bull wave.​
​​Convictions is low as I expect violent move like that and many false signal.​​
Major Divergences continue: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?

Well, that kind of market with huge squeeze​ followed by quick bear reversal is a killer; welcome to saloon s door experiment. I think that behavior will continue til year end...

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.32 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.43 MAX 211.00.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.57 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.85 MAX 204.60 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 206.57 and next big resistance is at 210.43
​Then today I expect a range from 206.60 to 209.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​2) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62
​​​​3) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
4) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​5) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​6) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 5 ) as long as we stay below 209.32 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on December 1 with 208.23 as support and 212.64 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 209.32 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 206.57 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.85 MAX 204.60 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.57 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.57 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​206.60 and 209.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 7 - Executive Summary - Reversal ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 207.41 level on December 4, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 208.86 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​207.99 MAX 207.04 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 208.86 - Old Resistance Trendline.
​​December 7

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 207.41 level on December 4, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
When we had that Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern on December, correction mode was on. The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds.
A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on December 3.
​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.
​​​We tested on December a ​Major Support Trendline and rebounded from there. Today s level is at 204.78.
IF we break that on a daily close, expect another nasty bear wave.​

The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) last Friday Market Reaction was a total surprise to me. I was expecting only a dead cat bounce but we had a strong reversal day on very strong volume.

We are back near a ​Major Resistance Trendline that started back on February 2 2015 Today s level is at 210.32. IF we break that on a daily close, expect another bull wave.​

​​Convictions is low as I expect violent move like that and many false signal.​​

Major Divergences continue: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?


​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 210.32 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​211.50 MAX 212.48.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.99 MAX 207.04 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 15.
​​Next big support is at 206.58 and next big resistance is at 210.32
​Then today I expect a range from 208.80 to 210.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​2) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62
​​​​3) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
4) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​5) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​6) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 4 ) as long as we stay above 208.86 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on December 1 with 207.04 as support and 211.50 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 208.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 208.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.99 MAX 207.04 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.58 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.58 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til December 15. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.80 and 210.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

December 4 - Executive Summary - Major Support Trendline?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 210.17 level on December 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 207.41 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​208.02 MAX 208.94 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 207.41 - November 24 2015 Low.
​​December 4

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 210.17 level on December 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​By closing below the 210.17 level yesterday on that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015. See chart below - Grey Trendline. We did have a false break out.
​Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​ We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.24 to 211.78...
Market Volatility is not a sign of confidence and bring a lot of false signals...​

When we had that Daily Bearish Engulfing Pattern on December, correction mode was on. The ECB bring a huge shift and USD weakness cause the sell off in US financial assets - stocks and bonds.

A lot of technical damage have been done by breaking the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on December 3.

​​Players hoping that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) will change the trend. We are only in a dead cat bounce.
​​​
We tested on December a ​Major Support Trendline and rebounded from there. Today s level is at 204.78.
IF we break that on a daily close, expect another nasty bear wave.​

​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.41 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​208.02 MAX 208.94.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.48 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.96 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 6.
​​Next big support is at 206.60 and next big resistance is at 208.94
​Then today I expect a range from 205.40 to 207.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On December 3, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 208.25
​​​2) ​On December 3, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.62
​​​​3) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
4) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​5) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​6) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Internals: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
5) Monthly Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay below 207.41 on a daily close.

We broke on December 1 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.22 as support and 212.58 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 1 a Downtrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 206.95 as support and 209.45 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 207.41 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 207.41 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.02 MAX 208.94 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.60 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.60 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​205.40 and 207.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 3 - Executive Summary - False Break Out?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 210.17 level on December 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 210.24 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​211.00 MAX 211.78 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 210.24 - Resistance Trendline from February 2 2015.
​​​December 3

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 210.17 level on December 2, triggering the Bear Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and finally close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline. Bulls need to protect the 210.17 from now.
Today s level is 210.17 level:​ ONLY a Daily close below 210.17 risk a false break out.
​Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​ We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.17 to 211.81...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​By closing below the 210.17 level yesterday on that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015. See chart below - Grey Trendline. We did have a false break out.

​Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​ We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.24 to 211.78...

Market Volatility is not a sign of confidence and bring a lot of false signals...​

​​​Only a daily close above 210.24 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​211.00 MAX 211.78.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.23 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.41 MAX 206.62 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 6.
​​Next big support is at 206.62 and next big resistance is at 210.24
​Then today I expect a range from 209.00 to 210.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Internals: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
5) Monthly Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since December 2 ) as long as we stay below 210.24 on a daily close.

We broke on December 1 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.22 as support and 212.58 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 1 a Downtrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 206.95 as support and 209.45 as resistance.

We broke on November 27 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.66 as support and 212.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 210.24 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 210.24 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​211.00 MAX 211.78 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.62 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​209.00 and 210.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
December 2 - Executive Summary - Break Out?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 210.12 level on December 1, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 210.17 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​209.22 MAX 208.38 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 210.17 - Support Trendline from February 2 2015.
December 2

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 210.12 level on December 1, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Month end was on higher volume and International selling as US Dollar is quite strong.
Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, Convictions is low here: strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.12 to 211.83...
​​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.12 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 210.12 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.
We still failed to get back above a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline: ​​
​SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?

We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and finally close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline. Bulls need to protect the 210.17 from now.
Today s level is 210.17 level:​ ONLY a Daily close below 210.17 risk a false break out.

​Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​ We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.17 to 211.81...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 211.81 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​212.25 MAX 214.34.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 210.17 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​209.22 MAX 208.38 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 6.
​​Next big support is at 210.17 and next big resistance is at 211.81
​Then today I expect a range from 210.00 to 211.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Internals: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
5) Monthly Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since December 1 ) as long as we stay above 210.17 on a daily close.

We are within an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.22 as support and 212.58 as resistance.

​​We broke on December 1 a Downtrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 206.95 as support and 209.45 as resistance.

We broke on November 27 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.66 as support and 212.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 210.17 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 210.17 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​209.22 MAX 208.38 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.62 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​210.00 and 211.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​December 1 - Executive Summary - Low Convictions?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.01 level on November 30, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 210.12 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​211.66 MAX 211.83 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 210.12 - Resistance Trendline from February 2 2015.
December 1

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market was more in Consolidation Mode last week and was able to stay above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ), quite a challenge. Seasonsals are bullish til December 6...
​We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.06 to 211.83...
​​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.06 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 210.06 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.
Expect only Tiny Asset Mix Rebalancing this month end as the performance between bonds​​ and stocks since October 30 are too close: IEF ETF ( iShares US Treasury 7-10 Years ) -0.47% and SP500 Index +0.52%.
​​Since August 24 2015, a huge rally ​​​occured but market internals continue to deteriorate:
​US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?

Month end was on higher volume and International selling as US Dollar is quite strong.
Knowing that seasonals are into a Grind Pattern til December 6, Convictions is low here: strategy is selling upwave near Dec 6 to buyback near Dec 15...​

We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.12 to 211.83...
​​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.12 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 210.12 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

We still failed to get back above a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline: ​​
​SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 210.12 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​211.66 MAX 211.83.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.56 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.95 MAX 206.62 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 6.
​​Next big support is at 206.62 and next big resistance is at 210.12
​Then today I expect a range from 208.50 to 209.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Internals: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?
5) Monthly Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Resistance Trendlines ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 30 ) as long as we stay below 210.12 on a daily close.

We are within a Downtrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 206.95 as support and 209.45 as resistance.

We broke on November 27 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.66 as support and 212.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 210.12 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 210.12 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​211.66 MAX 211.83 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.62 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.50 and 209.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​November 30 - Executive Summary - Market Internals ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.01 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.32 MAX 207.04 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.01 - Day Low of November 25.
November 30

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

Last Daily Comments on December 18 2015, resuming January 4 2016​.

​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
Not much have changed for me except the Market is Losing Momentum with lower Volume but seasonsals are bullish til November 30...
​​We tested the Support side of that Daily Channel on November 25 then with 209.05 as support and 212.02 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.95 to 211.66...
​​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.01 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.95 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

Market was more in Consolidation Mode last week and was able to stay above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ), quite a challenge. Seasonsals are bullish til December 6...

​We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 210.06 to 211.83...
​​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.06 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 210.06 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

Expect only Tiny Asset Mix Rebalancing this month end as the performance between bonds​​ and stocks since October 30 are too close: IEF ETF ( iShares US Treasury 7-10 Years ) -0.47% and SP500 Index +0.52%.

​​Since August 24 2015, a huge rally ​​​occured but market internals continue to deteriorate:
​US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 210.06 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.98 MAX 211.83.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.01 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.32 MAX 207.04 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til December 6.
​​Next big support is at 206.63 and next big resistance is at 210.06
​Then today I expect a range from 208.60 to 210.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?


​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Market Internals: US Stock Indices Technicals: Generals on the Front Line ?




​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 209.01 on a daily close.

We are within a Downtrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 207.04 as support and 209.56 as resistance.

We broke on November 27 an Uptrend Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.66 as support and 212.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.01 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.01 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.32 MAX 207.04 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.63 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.63 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til December 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.60 and 210.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 27 - Executive Summary - No Momentum ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.28 MAX 207.19 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.05 - The Channel Support Trendline.
​​November 27

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​We tested the Support side of that Daily Channel on November 24 then with 208.46 as support and 211.35 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.95 to 211.66...
​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 209.95 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.95 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.
Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines:
​​DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Still Above the Break Out Trendline ?

Not much have changed for me except the Market is Losing Momentum with lower Volume but seasonsals are bullish til November 30...

​​We tested the Support side of that Daily Channel on November 25 then with 209.05 as support and 212.02 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.95 to 211.66...

​We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 210.01 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.95 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 210.01 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.98 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.28 MAX 207.19 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 30.
​​Next big support is at 206.62 and next big resistance is at 210.01
​Then today I expect a range from 208.50 to 210.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Off Behavior ?
6) Short term Technicals: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Still Above the Break Out Trendline ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 209.05 on a daily close.

We are within a Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.66 as support and 212.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.05 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.28 MAX 207.19 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.62 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til November 30. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.50 and 210.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 25 - Executive Summary - Channel Support Tested ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.27 MAX 207.41 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.05 - The Channel Support Trendline.
​​November 25

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Not much have changed for me; We are still within a Channel with 208.46 as support and 211.35 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.86 to 211.66...
We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 209.86 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.83 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.
Interesting that risk behavior keep going lower: ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Off Behavior ?

​We tested the Support side of that Daily Channel on November 24 then with 208.46 as support and 211.35 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.95 to 211.66...

We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 209.95 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.95 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

Market is quite resilient with all those geo-political headlines:
​​DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Still Above the Break Out Trendline ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.95 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.98 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.27 MAX 207.41 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 30.
​​Next big support is at 206.61 and next big resistance is at 209.95
​Then today I expect a range from 208.50 to 210.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Off Behavior ?
6) Short term Technicals: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Still Above the Break Out Trendline ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 209.05 on a daily close.

We are within a Channel that started back on November 18 with 209.05 as support and 212.02 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.05 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.05 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.27 MAX 207.41 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.61 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.61 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til November 30. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.50 and 210.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

November 24 - Executive Summary - Follow the Channel ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 208.46 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​206.58 MAX 204.57 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 208.46 - The Channel Support Trendline.
November 24

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​We did test on November 20 the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 then at 209.72 and failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 209.83 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.83 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.
We are within a new Channel with 207.95 as support and 210.78 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.83 to 211.66...

Not much have changed for me; We are still within a Channel with 208.46 as support and 211.35 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...
We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.86 to 211.66...

We have been testing that ​Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 and still failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
Today s level is 209.86 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.83 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

Interesting that risk behavior keep going lower: ​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Off Behavior ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.86 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​211.35 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.46 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.04 MAX 206.60 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 30.
​​Next big support is at 206.60 and next big resistance is at 209.86
​Then today I expect a range from 208.00 to 209.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Off Behavior ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 208.46 on a daily close.

We are within a Channel that started back on November 18 with 208.46 as support and 211.35 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 208.46 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 208.46 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.04 MAX 206.60 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.60 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.60 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til November 30. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.00 and 209.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​​November 23 - Executive Summary - New Channel ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 207.95 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​206.58 MAX 204.57 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 207.95 - The Channel Support Trendline.
November 23

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
Not much have changed for me; we are in a Range Trade Pattern til November 23rd and near the high side of that Range. Next battle for Bulls is the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 at 209.72 on a Daily close. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
ONLY a Daily close above 209.72 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

​We did test on November 20 the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 then at 209.72 and failed to close above it. See chart below - Grey Trendline.

Today s level is 209.83 level:​ ONLY a Daily close above 209.83 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

We are within a new Channel with 207.95 as support and 210.78 as resistance. We need to stay into that channel for a Bull Trend...

We are getting into a strong resistance zone: 209.83 to 211.66...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.83 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.78 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 207.95 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.58 MAX 204.57 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23.
​​Next big support is at 206.58 and next big resistance is at 209.83
​Then today I expect a range from 208.00 to 209.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 206.95 on a daily close.

We are within a new Channel that started back on November 18 with 207.95 as support and 210.78 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 207.95 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 207.95 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.58 MAX 204.57 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.58 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.58 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.00 and 209.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 20 - Executive Summary - Bad Candle ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 206.95 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​205.79 MAX 204.55 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.95 - The Channel Support Trendline.
​​November 20

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market broke all its DMA s ( Day Moving Average ) with on November 18 the 20 then at 207.43 and the 200 then at 206.52 on SPY. Next battle for Bulls is the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 at 209.70 on a Daily close. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
A Daily close above 209.70 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

Not much have changed for me; we are in a Range Trade Pattern til November 23rd and near th high side of that Range. Next battle for Bulls is the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 at 209.72 on a Daily close. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
ONLY a Daily close above 209.72 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.72 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.32 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.95 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.79 MAX 204.55 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23.
​​Next big support is at 206.55 and next big resistance is at 209.72
​Then today I expect a range from 207.70 to 209.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 206.95 on a daily close.

​​We broke on November 18 a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 202.70 as support and 206.30 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 206.95 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 206.95 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.79 MAX 204.55 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.56 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.70 and 209.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​November 19 - Executive Summary - DMAs ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 206.55 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​205.79 MAX 204.53 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.55 - The 200 DMA
​​November 19

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market is within a Transition period which will be a Range Trade til November 23rd.
Volume activity is still low, no strong convictions here...​

Market broke all its DMA s ( Day Moving Average ) with on November 18 the 20 then at 207.43 and the 200 then at 206.52 on SPY. Next battle for Bulls is the Previous Break Down Trendline ( August 20 2015 ) that started back since February 2 2015 at 209.70 on a Daily close. See chart below - Grey Trendline.
A Daily close above 209.70 risk is a retest of the 211.66 zone reached on November 3.

​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.70 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.32 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.55 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.79 MAX 204.53 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23.
​​Next big support is at 206.55 and next big resistance is at 209.70
​Then today I expect a range from 207.80 to 209.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​1) On November 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.43
2) On November 18, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.52
​​3) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​4) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 206.55 on a daily close.

​​We broke on November 18 a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 202.70 as support and 206.30 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 206.55 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 206.55 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.03 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.56 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.55 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.80 and 209.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

November 18 - Executive Summary - Transition ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​203.03 MAX 202.18 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 204.44 - The Major Support Trendline

November 18

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
The Market was into an oversold condition and as I warned you. Also, seasonsals usually turn on a Grind Pattern starting on November 17. SO critical here that Bulls protect the 204.44 zone. That violent Bull impulse was done on low Volume, a concern to me...
Next Big Battle for the Bulls are to get back over the 200 DMA now at 206.52 on a Daily close.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Market is within a Transition preiod which will be a Range Trade til November 23rd.
Volume activity is still low, no strong convictions here...​

​​Only a daily close above 206.52 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.43 MAX 208.17.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.03 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23.
​​Next big support is at 201.23 and next big resistance is at 206.52
​Then today I expect a range from 204.40 to 206.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​2) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47
​3) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​4) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
5) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 204.44 on a daily close.

​​We are back into a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 202.70 as support and 206.30 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 204.44 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.03 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.52 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.52 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Trade Pattern trend til November 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​204.40 and 206.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​November 17 - Executive Summary - Reversal ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​203.29 MAX 202.18 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 204.44 - The Major Support Trendline
​​November 17

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 204.44 level on November 16, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We did broke on November 13 a Major Support Trendline that started back on December 16 2014 then at 204.42 ( now at 204.44 for today s level - Red Trendline - chart below ). It was a tiny capitulation phase as we trade near the low on the close last Friday. Financials were quite weak but near some support...
​​We need to be cautious as we are near reversal in seasonals and my Trendicator are getting near an oversold zone as shown here.

The Market was into an oversold condition and as I warned you. Also, seasonsals usually turn on a Grind Pattern starting on November 17. SO critical here that Bulls protect the 204.44 zone. That violent Bull impulse was done on low Volume, a concern to me...

Next Big Battle for the Bulls are to get back over the 200 DMA now at 206.52 on a Daily close.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 206.52 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.31 MAX 208.17.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.29 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 201.07 and next big resistance is at 206.52
​Then today I expect a range from 204.50 to 206.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​2) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47
​3) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​4) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
5) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since November 16 ) as long as we stay above 204.44 on a daily close.

​​We are back into a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 203.29 as support and 206.88 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 204.44 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 204.44 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.29 MAX 202.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.52 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.52 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​204.50 and 206.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​November 16 - Executive Summary - Broken Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 204.44 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​205.51 MAX 206.50 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 204.44 - The Channel Resistance Trendline
November 16

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
We did broke on November 12 the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11 and the 200 DMA then at 206.47. It is quite bad technically speaking. We are near the Old Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015 then at 209.35. IF broken on a daily close, expect another gap down.
We start to see some sign of capitulation and could see a violent rebound in the next few trading sessions as already my Trendicator is getting into oversold territory but did not turn up yet...​​

We did broke on November 13 a Major Support Trendline that started back on December 16 2014 then at 204.42 ( now at 204.44 for today s level - Red Trendline - chart below ). It was a tiny capitulation phase as we trade near the low on the close last Friday. Financials were quite weak but near some support...

​​We need to be cautious as we are near reversal in seasonals and my Trendicator are getting near an oversold zone as shown here.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 204.44 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​205.51 MAX 206.50.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 202.36 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.43 MAX 200.81 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 200.81 and next big resistance is at 206.50
​Then today I expect a range from 202.30 to 204.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​2) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47
​3) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​4) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
5) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 9 ) as long as we stay below 207.95 on a daily close.

​​We broke on November 13 a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 204.26 as support and 207.95 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 204.44 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 202.36 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.43 MAX 200.81 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.50 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.50 level will mean to me technical strength and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​202.30 and 204.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

November 13 - Executive Summary - Broken DMAs ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 207.95 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​208.94 MAX 209.48 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 207.95 - The Channel Resistance Trendline
​​​November 13

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Strong Battle near some crucial technical levels for Bulls in a very low Volume environment:
​DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out Battlezone ?
We did have the expected Dead Cat Bounce but did not get near the Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015 then at 209.35. Next skirmish should be at the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 207.11 and the 200 DMA at 206.47. IF both broken this week, Bulls will be in serious trouble...
​​
We did broke on November 12 the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11 and the 200 DMA then at 206.47. It is quite bad technically speaking. We are near the Old Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015 then at 209.35. IF broken on a daily close, expect another gap down.

We start to see some sign of capitulation and could see a violent rebound in the next few trading sessions as already my Trendicator is getting into oversold territory but did not turn up yet...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.95 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​208.94 MAX 209.48.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.26 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.37 MAX 202.36 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 200.67 and next big resistance is at 206.49
​Then today I expect a range from 203.40 to 205.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On November 12, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.11
​​​2) ​On November 12, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.47
​3) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​4) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
5) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) US Dollar Impact: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?
6) Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
7) Technical Battle: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out Battlezone ?


​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 9 ) as long as we stay below 207.95 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on November 4 with 204.26 as support and 207.95 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 207.95 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 204.26 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.37 MAX 202.36 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.46 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 206.49 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulld are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​203.40 and 205.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 12 - Executive Summary - DMAs ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 209.43 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​210.51 MAX 211.66 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 209.43 - The Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015
​​​November 12

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​Market choppiness will continue and Volatility will pick up til November 17th.
Market valuations against bonds is back into the expensive zone:
​​​Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?

Strong Battle near some crucial technical levels for Bulls in a very low Volume environment:
​DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out Battlezone ?

We did have the expected Dead Cat Bounce but did not get near the Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015 then at 209.35. Next skirmish should be at the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 207.11 and the 200 DMA at 206.47. IF both broken thsi week, Bulls will be in serious trouble...
​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.43 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.51 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 207.58 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.11 MAX 206.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 206.43 and next big resistance is at 211.66
​Then today I expect a range from 207.00 to 208.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) US Dollar Impact: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?
6) Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?
7) Technical Battle: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out Battlezone ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 9 ) as long as we stay below 209.43 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel with 207.58 as support and 210.51 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 209.43 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 207.58 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.11 MAX 206.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.47 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.47 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.00 and 208.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

November 11 - Executive Summary - Still Below Break Out Trendline?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 209.35 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​210.62 MAX 211.66 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 209.35 - The Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015
November 11

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
So Seasonals started to kick in as a slow bleed phase til November 17: it will be a choppy ride I expect.
​O​n a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to Financial Markets, especially Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?

​Market choppiness will continue and Volatility will pick up til November 17th.

Market valuations against bonds is back into the expensive zone:
​​​Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.35 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.62 MAX 211.66.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 207.98 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.95 MAX 206.43 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 206.43 and next big resistance is at 211.66
​Then today I expect a range from 207.90 to 209.40.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) US Dollar Impact: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?
6) Valuation: Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Macro Divergence Prevail ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 9 ) as long as we stay below 209.35 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel with 207.98 as support and 210.62 as resistance.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 209.35 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 207.98 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.95 MAX 206.43 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.43 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.43 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.90 and 209.40.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​November 10 - Executive Summary - Below Break Out Trendline?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 209.29 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​210.32 MAX 210.88 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 209.29 - The Break Out Trendline from February 2 2015
November 10

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 209.97 level on November 9, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We are getting into a Slow Bleed Phase for Sesonals til November 23rd: ​​SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
So near a Bear Trend...
​For the SPY to continue to perform, we need the Financials and the Technology Sectors.
Financials are at crossroads here on a Weekly Basis: ​SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Out ?
On a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to stocks: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?

​So Seasonals started to kick in as a slow bleed phase til November 17: it will be a choppy ride I expect.

O​n a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to Financial Markets, especially Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.29 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.32 MAX 210.88.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 207.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.40 MAX 205.79 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 17.
​​Next big support is at 206.40 and next big resistance is at 211.66
​Then today I expect a range from 206.80 to 208.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?
5) US Dollar Impact: Emerging Markets: Back to the 50% Fibonacci Zone ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since November 9 ) as long as we stay below 209.29 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel with 208.17 as support and 210.88 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on November 6 a uptrend channel with 210.62 as support and 213.23 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 209.29 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 207.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.40 MAX 205.79 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.40 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.40 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 14. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​206.80 and 208.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 9 - Executive Summary - Seasonals Still ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.17 MAX 206.35 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.97 - The Support Trendline from the Daily Channel- Nov 6
November 9

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
Few realize that market internals continue to deteriorate: SP500 Index Technicals: Feel Home Alone ?

We are getting into a Slow Bleed Phase for Sesonals til November 23rd: ​​SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
So near a Bear Trend...

​For the SPY to continue to perform, we need the Financials and the Technology Sectors.
Financials are at crossroads here on a Weekly Basis: ​SP500 Financials Weekly: Near Break Out ?

On a short term basis, also the US Dollar will bring Volatility to stocks: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 211.66 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​212.04 MAX 213.07.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...



​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 23.
​​Next big support is at 206.39 and next big resistance is at 212.04
​Then today I expect a range from 208.50 to 210.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Volatility: SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 209.97 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel with 208.28 as support and 210.98 as resistance.

​​​​We broke on November 6 a uptrend channel with 210.62 as support and 213.23 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.97 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.28 MAX 206.39 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.39 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.39 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 23. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​208.50 and 210.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​​​November 6 - Executive Summary - NFP ?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.
​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​ ​208.17 MAX 206.35 for now...
Technical Challenge: ​Stay Above 209.97 - The Support Trendline from the Daily Channel

November 5
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​So last day for Bullish Seasonals and slow bleed til November 17.​​​In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.07. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.
Tech problems with my web site: sorry for that.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 211.66 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​212.04 MAX 213.23. ​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...
Few realize that market internals continue to deteriorate: SP500 Index Technicals: Feel Home Alone ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 19.​​Next big support is at 206.37 and next big resistance is at 212.07​Then today I expect a range from 209.00 to 212.00.
​​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...
​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
​Some Technical Comments:​1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84 3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62 ​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70 ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:​1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily LevelsSeasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ? 3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?4) Weak Break Out: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out ? 5) Protection Needed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?6) Greed Optimism: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since August 2014 ? 7) Market Internals : SP500 Index Technicals: Feel Home Alone ?

​​​​​​Back to the technical levels now. ​ Disclaimer​​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 209.97 on a daily close.
​​We are within an uptrend channel with 210.62 as support and 213.23 as resistance.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.97 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.
Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.37 for now...
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.37 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls. ​Already starting to trade below the 206.37 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​
Seasonals are turning into a Slow Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 19. See links above.​
​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​209.00 and 212.00.​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​November 5 - Executive Summary - Seasonals ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.17 MAX 206.35 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.97 - The Support Trendline from the Daily Channel
November 5

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Market start to hedge again according to the SKEW Index: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
Also, from August 24 full fear into the market, we are now into the Greed Phase as some too much optimism start to show in the most liquid stocks: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since August 2014 ?
​In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.09. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.

So last day for Bullish Seasonals and slow bleed til November 17.

​​​In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.07. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 211.66 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​212.07 MAX 213.11.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...

Few realize that market internals continue to deteriorate: SP500 Index Technicals: Feel Home Alone ?

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5 and a Bleed after.
​​Next big support is at 206.35 and next big resistance is at 212.07
​Then today I expect a range from 209.90 to 211.30.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Weak Break Out: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out ?
5) Protection Needed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
6) Greed Optimism: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since August 2014 ?
7) Market Internals : SP500 Index Technicals: Feel Home Alone ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 209.97 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel with 209.97 as support and 212.58 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.97 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.97 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.35 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.35 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.35 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​209.90 and 211.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

November 4 - Executive Summary - Near Reversal ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 209.37 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 209.37 - The Support Trendline from the Daily Channel
​​​​​November 4

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals in full throttle til November 5th : SP500 Index Seasonalities: November Roller Coaster ?
In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.11. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.

Market start to hedge again according to the SKEW Index: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?

Also, from August 24 full fear into the market, we are now into the Greed Phase as some too much optimism start to show in the most liquid stocks: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since August 2014 ?

​In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.09. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 211.66 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​212.09 MAX 213.11.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 209.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5 and a Bleed after.
​​Next big support is at 206.31 and next big resistance is at 212.09
​Then today I expect a range from 209.40 to 211.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Weak Break Out: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out ?
5) Protection Needed: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Critical Zone Again ?
6) Greed Optimism: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since August 2014 ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 209.37 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel with 209.37 as support and 211.98 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.37 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 209.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​208.17 MAX 206.31 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.31 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.31 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​209.40 and 211.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
November 3 - Executive Summary - Uptrend Channel ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 209.44 level on November 2, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 208.71 will give us a Bearish Impulse to ​
​206.94 MAX 206.27 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 208.71 - The Support Trendline from the Daily Channel

​​November 3

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​As expected, tiny correction at month end. ​​Ideally we stay above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.22 in that correction process. IF broken, expect a deeper correction.
That market may be in a consolidation phase ( as long as above the 200 DMA ) before resuming uptrend. That is where the 200 DMA will make all the differnce to me.
SP500 tested ​​the Daily Resistance Trendline of the Old Rising Wedge Pattern ( August 21 2015 Break Down Trendline ) that started back on December 16 2014 and failed to close above. Resistance level for November 2 at 2087.7​ : SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?

Seasonals in full throttle til November 5th : SP500 Index Seasonalities: November Roller Coaster ?

In fact, we are near a break out ​on SPY from a Major Resistance ​Trendline​​ that started back on May 20 2015 now at 212.11. That is what I ll follow in the next few trading sessions and the 200 DMA.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 210.62 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​211.45 MAX 212.11.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.71 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.94 MAX 206.27 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5 and a Bleed after.
​​Next big support is at 206.27 and next big resistance is at 212.11
​Then today I expect a range from 209.20 to 210.80.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?
4) Weak Break Out: DJ Industrials (DIA ETF): Break Out ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 208.71 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel with 208.71 as support and 211.45 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 208.71 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 208.71 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.94 MAX 206.27 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.27 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.27 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​209.20 and 210.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​November 2 - Executive Summary - 200 DMA Support ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 208.47 level on October 30, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 209.44 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​210.31 MAX 211.34 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 209.44 - The October 30 High.
November 2

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Already Month End : Expect asset mix rebalancing as the IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays US Treasurys 7-10 Years ) had a negative performance since September 30 close of -0.83%. SP500 Index outperformed tremendously with +8.82%. So expect sellers of stocks to buy bonds.
Read Also: ​​What Happens The Last Two Days Of A Month After A Huge Rally?
​​Ideally we stay above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.18 in that correction process. IF broken, expect a deeper correction.

As expected, tiny correction at month end. ​​Ideally we stay above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.22 in that correction process. IF broken, expect a deeper correction.

Tha market may be in a consolidation phase ( as long as above the 200 DMA ) before resuming uptrend. That is where the 200 DMA will make all the differnce to me.

SP500 tested ​​the Daily Resistance Trendline of the Old Rising Wedge Pattern ( August 21 2015 Break Down Trendline ) that started back on December 16 2014 and failed to close above. Resistance level for November 2 at 2087.7​ : SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.44 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.31 MAX 211.34.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.22 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.51 MAX 205.18 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 5 and a Bleed after.
​​Next big support is at 206.22 and next big resistance is at 209.44
​Then today I expect a range from 207.00 to 209.40.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Major Channel Resistance ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since October 30 ) as long as we stay above 209.44 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 209.44 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 209.44 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​210.31 MAX 211.34 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.22 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.22 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til November 6. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.00 and 209.40.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


October 30 - Executive Summary - Month End Correction ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 208.47 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​207.45 MAX 206.18 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 208.47 - The Support from an Uptrend Channel.
​​​October 30

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​Yesyerday, we kissed the 200 DMA and rebounded violently on stronger Volume; that market is quite resilient as long as above the 200 DMA.
SP500 Index is living in its technical world here: ​​
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?

Already Month End : Expect asset mix rebalancing as the IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays US Treasurys 7-10 Years ) had a negative performance since September 30 close of -0.83%. SP500 Index outperformed tremendously with +8.82%. So expect sellers of stocks to buy bonds.

Read Also: ​​What Happens The Last Two Days Of A Month After A Huge Rally?
​​
Ideally we stay above the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.18 in that correction process. IF broken, expect a deeper correction.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 209.73 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​210.31 MAX 211.34.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 208.57 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​207.45 MAX 206.15 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 1rst.
​​Next big support is at 206.18 and next big resistance is at 211.34
​Then today I expect a range from 207.40 to 209.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Back in the Main Channel ?
4) Market Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
6) Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 208.47 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 208.47 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 209.73 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​210.31 MAX 211.34 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.18 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.18 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 1rst. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.40 and 209.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 29 - Executive Summary - Kissed the 200 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 207.30 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​206.14 MAX 204.51 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 207.30 - The Support from an Uptrend Channel.
​​October 29

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Not much change from yesterday: Market may need some consolidation here, as Market Sentiment is quite Bullish and hoping that SPY ETF stays above the 200 DMA.
We still need to have an eye on the Chinese markets though:
​China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 206.10.

​​​​​​​​​​​Yesyerday, we kissed the 200 DMA and rebounded violently on stronger Volume; that market is quite resilient as long as above the 200 DMA.

SP500 Index is living in its technical world here: ​​
​DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?


​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 208.98 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​209.38 MAX 210.68.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 207.30 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​206.14 MAX 205.51 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 1rst.
​​Next big support is at 206.14 and next big resistance is at 210.68
​Then today I expect a range from 207.30 to 208.70.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Back in the Main Channel ?
4) Market Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
6) Divergence: DJ Transports / SP500 Index Technicals: A Tale of Two Worlds ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 207.30 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 207.30 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 208.98 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​209.38 MAX 210.68 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.14 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.14 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til November 1rst. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​207.30 and 208.70.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


October 28 - Executive Summary - Bulls need to Protect the 200 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 206.10 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​205.51 MAX 204.77 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.10 - The 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average).
​​October 28

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market may need some consolidation here, as Market Sentiment is quite Bullish and hoping that SPY ETF stays above the 200 MDA: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?
The other factor that strikes me here is that small capitalization underperform tremendously big one, typical of a market top as portfolio managers search for liquidity instead of value:
​Russell 2000 vs SP500: Near Critical Support Trendline ?

Not much change from yesterday: Market may need some consolidation here, as Market Sentiment is quite Bullish and hoping that SPY ETF stays above the 200 DMA.

We still need to have an eye on the Chinese markets though:
​China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 206.10.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.95 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​208.47 MAX 209.38.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.10 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.51 MAX 204.77 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th.
​​Next big support is at 204.77 and next big resistance is at 207.95
​Then today I expect a range from 206.10 to 207.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Back in the Main Channel ?
4) Market Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?
5) Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 206.10 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 206.10 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 207.95 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​208.47 MAX 209.38 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.10 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.10 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​206.10 and 207.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
October 27 - Executive Summary - Still the 200 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 206.08 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​205.51 MAX 204.86 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.08 - The 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average).
​​​October 27

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market was on fire last week as Desperate Cenral Banks continue to pump up the market.
China is still at play: ​Barclays to BlackRock Say the China Rebound Rally Won't Last
We are so close of being back into the Monthly Old Main Uptrend Channel:
​SP500 Technicals: ​Back in the Main Channel ?
Another technical factor makes me cautious after that last spike up: My Daily Trendicator divergence :

Market may need some consolidation here, as Market Sentiment is quite Bullish and hoping that SPY ETF stays above the 200 MDA: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?

The other factor that strikes me here is that small capitalization underperform tremendously big one, typical of a market top as portfolio managers search for liquidity instead of value:
​Russell 2000 vs SP500: Near Critical Support Trendline ?


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 206.08.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.95 MAX 208.47.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 206.08 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​205.51 MAX 204.86 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th.
​​Next big support is at 204.86 and next big resistance is at 207.95
​Then today I expect a range from 206.00 to 207.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Back in the Main Channel ?
4) Market Sentiment: SP100 Index Bull% Index: Highest since February 2015 ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 206.08 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 206.08 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 207.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​207.95 MAX 208.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.08 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 206.08 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​206.00 and 207.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


October 26 - Executive Summary - 200 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 204.98 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​204.12 MAX 202.88 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 206.07 - The 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average).
​​October 26

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
On October 22, ECB surprise the market with potentially more QE coming up in 2016. That was the fuel the rocket need to have a lif off. I think we are back to square one as the US Dollar strenght will bring back the Emerging Markets weaknesses through volatile foreign exchange rates...
​​​​​​​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance
The next battle for the Bulls is to have a daily close above the 200 DMA now at 206.06 on SPY.​​
IF we are unable to close today above it, it will be a weak technical sign indeed...​
Also, IF we have today a daily close above the 205.14 level ( which is the Major Resistance Trendline from​ July 20 2015 - Blue Trendline - Chart Below ), then technically speaking, we have a break out.
We are at critical phase for Bulls and Bears today.​

Market was on fire last week as Desperate Cenral Banks continue to pup up the market.
China is still at play: ​Barclays to BlackRock Say the China Rebound Rally Won't Last

We are so close of being back into the Monthly Old Main Uptrend Channel:
​SP500 Technicals: ​Back in the Main Channel ?

Another technical factor makes me cautious after that last spike up: My Daily Trendicator divergence :

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 206.07.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 207.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.95 MAX 208.48.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.98 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​204.12 MAX 202.88 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th.
​​Next big support is at 204.98 and next big resistance is at 207.95
​Then today I expect a range from 206.00 to 207.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 23, we broke the 200 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 206.06
​​2) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
3) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​4) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​5) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​6) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Macro Technicals: SP500 Technicals: Back in the Main Channel ?



​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 204.98 on a daily close.

​​We broke on October 23rd that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 204.98 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 207.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​207.95 MAX 208.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.06 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade below the 204.98 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 29th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​206.00 and 207.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 23 - Executive Summary - ECB QE Surprise ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 204.12 will give us another Bearsh Impulse to ​
​203.58 MAX 202.31 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 204.60 - The Fibo .764% retracement.
​​October 23

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 203.84 level on October 22, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Market continue to send mixed signals as it is getting near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.05:
​Dow Jones Transportation: Sentiment / Behavior Divergence ?
We had on October 21 almost a Bearish Engulfing Candle Pattern on SPY...
​​​​​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 201.21 as support and 205.28 as resistance

On October 22, ECB surprise the market with potentially more QE coming up in 2016. That was the fuel the rocket need to have a lif off. I think we are back to square one as the US Dollar strenght will bring back the Emerging Markets weaknesses through volatile foreign exchange rates...

​​​​​​​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance

The next battle for the Bulls is to have a daily close above the 200 DMA now at 206.06 on SPY.​​
IF we are unable to close today above it, it will be a weak technical sign indeed...​
Also, IF we have today a daily close above the 205.14 level ( which is the Major Resistance Trendline from​ July 20 2015 - Blue Trendline - Chart Below ), then technically speaking, we have a break out.
We are at critical phase for Bulls and Bears today.​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.30.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 206.06 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​207.45 MAX 208.47.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 204.12 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​203.58 MAX 202.31 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 202.31 and next big resistance is at 206.06
​Then today I expect a range from 204.60 to 206.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
​​4) Market Skewness: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?
5) Grinding Market: DJ Industrials: My Uptrend Channel ?
6) Divergence: Dow Jones Transportation: Sentiment / Behavior Divergence ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 22 ) as long as we stay above 204.12 on a daily close.

​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 202.31 as support and 205.77 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 204.12 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 206.06 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​207.45 MAX 208.47 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.06 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 204.12 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​204.60 and 206.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
October 22 - Executive Summary - Bearish Engulfing Candle ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 202.55 level on October 21, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 203.84 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​204.12 MAX 204.18 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 203.84 - The October 21 high.
October 22

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 202.55 level on October 21, triggering the Bear Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Interesting to note that the Dow Jones Industrial is bouncing on a Major Resistance Trendline:
​DJ Industrials: My Uptrend Channel ?

Market continue to send mixed signals as it is getting near the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at 206.05:
​Dow Jones Transportation: Sentiment / Behavior Divergence ?

We had on October 21 almost a Bearish Engulfing Candle Pattern on SPY...

​​​​​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 201.21 as support and 205.28 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.26.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 203.84 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​204.12 MAX 205.28.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 201.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​200.09 MAX 198.94 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 201.21 and next big resistance is at 205.28
​Then today I expect a range from 201.30 to 203.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
​​4) Market Skewness: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?
5) Grinding Market: DJ Industrials: My Uptrend Channel ?
6) Divergence: Dow Jones Transportation: Sentiment / Behavior Divergence ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since October 21 ) as long as we stay above 203.84​ on a daily close.

​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 201.21 as support and 205.28 as resistance - target on that move.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 203.84 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 203.84 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​204.12 MAX 205.28 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.05 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 201.21 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.30 and 203.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​October 21 - Executive Summary - Grinding Still ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 202.55 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​201.55 MAX 200.58 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 202.55 - The October 20 close
​​October 21

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We are at Crossroads for SPY: as mentioned yesterday, we are facing multiple resistance and the SKEW Index shows how little confidence Market Participants have in the SP500 at those levels....​​
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


Interesting to note that the Dow Jones Industrial is bouncing on a Major Resistance Trendline:
​DJ Industrials: My Uptrend Channel ?

​​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.87 as support and 204.96 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.39.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 204.96 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​205.37 MAX 206.03.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 202.55 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.55 MAX 200.87 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 200.87 and next big resistance is at 204.96
​Then today I expect a range from 202.30 to 204.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
​​4) Market Skewness: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?
5) Grinding Market: DJ Industrials: My Uptrend Channel ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 15 ) as long as we stay above 202.55​ on a daily close.

​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.87 as support and 204.96 as resistance - target on that move.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 202.55 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 202.55 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.55 MAX 200.87 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.03 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 200.87 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​202.30 and 204.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 20 - Executive Summary - Skewed ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​201.55 MAX 200.48 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 202.27 - The Fibo Support Trendline
​​October 20

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.06 as support and 204.13 as resistance - target on that move.
We are getting into many resistances here with the Ultimate, the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) here - now at 206.04: Another cautious zone indeed: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?

We are at Crossroads for SPY: as mentioned yesterday, we are facing multiple resistance and the SKEW Index shows how little confidence Market Participants have in the SP500 at those levels....​​
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?

We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.48 as support and 204.57 as resistance

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.54.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 204.57 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​204.96 MAX 206.03.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.33 MAX 200.06 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 200.48 and next big resistance is at 204.57
​Then today I expect a range from 201.50 to 203.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
​​4) Market Skewness: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 15 ) as long as we stay above 202.27​ on a daily close.

​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.48 as support and 204.57 as resistance - target on that move.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 202.27 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.33 MAX 200.06 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.03 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 200.48 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.50 and 203.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​October 19 - Executive Summary - Resistance Land ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​201.33 MAX 200.06 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 202.27 - The Fibo Support Trendline
October 19

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
I am quite astonished from that rebound. It started as a near kiss of the 50 DMA on October 14 but mostly the break out yesterday at the 201.30 zone on the Resistance Trendline from August 28 was a strong statement from Mr Market. We need now to stay over it to confitm the Bull stance.
We are still into that uptrend channel with 199.64 as support and 203.94 as resistance - target on that move.​​
Financials are at crossroads here and will decide the failth of the SPY: ​
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.06 as support and 204.13 as resistance - target on that move.

We are getting into many resistances here with the Ultimate, the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving Average ) here - now at 206.04: Another cautious zone indeed: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?



​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.63.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 204.13 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​204.96 MAX 206.04.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.33 MAX 200.06 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 200.06 and next big resistance is at 204.13
​Then today I expect a range from 201.90 to 204.00.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Big Picture ?
​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 15 ) as long as we stay above 202.27​ on a daily close.

​​We are still into that uptrend channel with 200.06 as support and 204.13 as resistance - target on that move.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 202.27 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 202.27 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​201.33 MAX 200.06 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.04 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 200.06 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.90 and 204.00.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​October 16 - Executive Summary - Channel ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 201.30 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​199.64 MAX 198.73 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 201.30 - The Support Trendline from August 28
October 16

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 200.91 level on October 15, triggering the Bull Case.


​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We did test the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.09 on October 14 and closed higher which is a good thing. Dead cat bounce day as we need a daily close below 200.91.

I am quite astonished from that rebound. It started as a near kiss of the 50 DMA on October 14 but mostly the break out yesterday at the 201.30 zone on the Resistance Trendline from August 28 was a strong statement from Mr Market. We need now to stay over it to confitm the Bull stance.

We are still into that uptrend channel with 199.64 as support and 203.94 as resistance - target on that move.​​

Financials are at crossroads here and will decide the failth of the SPY: ​
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.73.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 202.89 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​203.94 MAX 204.16.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 201.30 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.64 MAX 198.73 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 198.73 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 201.30 to 203.50.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ?
4) Panic Behavior: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?
5) Risk Off Behavior: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
6) Moody Financials: SP500 Financials (XLF) : In a Bad Mood ?

​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since October 15 ) as long as we stay above 201.30​ on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 201.30 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 201.30 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.64 MAX 198.73 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.05 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 198.73 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​201.30 and 203.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​October 15 - Executive Summary - 50 DMA tested ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 200.91 level on October 13, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 200.91 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​202.16 MAX 202.89 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 200.91 - The October 12 Low
October 15

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 200.91 level on October 13, triggering the Bear Case.
TECHNICAL PROBLEMS: CHARTS NOT UPDATED​

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​The Yen is telling us for a Risk Off behavior: ​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
On top of that, we had another Shooting Star Pattern on October 13, previous was September 17.​

We did test the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.09 on October 14 and closed higher which is a good thing. Dead cat bounc day as we need a daily close below 200.91.


​​​​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 198.24.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 200.87 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.16 MAX 202.89.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 198.24 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.48 MAX 197.00 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 198.24 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 198.20 to 200.90.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ?
4) Panic Behavior: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?
5) Risk Off Behavior: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay below 200.91 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 200.91 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 198.24 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.48 MAX 197.00 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 204.27 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 198.24 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​198.20 and 200.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


October 14 - Executive Summary - Shooting Star ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 200.91 level on October 13, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 202.16 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​202.89 MAX 203.94 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 202.16 - The October 13 High

​​October 14

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 200.91 level on October 13, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Well, back to Chinese problems: Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble
The Market Behavior is not backing the last rally we had since September 30 as the SKEW is spiking at the highest level of the past 3 years: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?
We are still unable to reach back the high of September 17 at 202.89 on SPY.
Like I wrote yesterday: ​that makes me cautious at those levels...

​The Yen is telling us for a Risk Off behavior: ​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?

On top of that, we had another Shooting Star Pattern on October 13, previous was September 17.​

​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 199.09.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 202.16 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.89 MAX 203.94.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 199.09 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​198.31 MAX 197.33 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til October 24th.
​​Next big support is at 199.09 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 199.10 to 201.20.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ?
4) Panic Behavior: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?
5) Risk Off Behavior: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since October 13 ) as long as we stay below 202.16 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 202.16 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 199.09 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​198.31 MAX 197.33 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.13 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 199.09 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til October 24th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​199.10 and 201.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 13 - Executive Summary - Turnaround ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 200.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​199.28 MAX 198.07 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 200.91 - The October 12 Low
​​​October 13

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case


​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​We are into the September 17 Day Range, day which we had a Shooting Star: 199.28 to 202.89.
​The Rally we had from September 30 is coming only from 3 SP500 Sectors:
​SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ? that makes me cautious at those levels...
The other factor that is quite unusual is that Financials Stocks Volatility did not fall corresponding to the huge rally we had since September 30: ​​SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?

Well, back to Chinese problems: Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble

The Market Behavior is not backing the last rally we had since September 30 as the SKEW is spiking at the highest level of the past 3 years: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?

We are still unable to reach back the high of September 17 at 202.89 on SPY.
Like I wrote yesterday: ​that makes me cautious at those levels...


​​​​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at all costs here - now at 199.28.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 202.89 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.89 MAX 203.71.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 200.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.28 MAX 198.07 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til October 14th.
​​Next big support is at 199.28 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 199.30 to 201.60.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ?
4) Panic Behavior: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Full Hedge Aboard ?


​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 200.91 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 200.91 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 200.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.28 MAX 198.07 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.17 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 200.91 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til October 14th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​199.30 and 201.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
October 12 - Executive Summary - Shooting Star Level ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 200.56 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​199.46 MAX 198.12 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 200.56 - The October 9 Low
​​October 12

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case


​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Another Dovish Fed pushed the Market beyond its limit. We did broke on October 8 the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84 and closed above. From the Greed Level zone we are now into overbought territory.
In fact, according to the ​ratio of ​the ​ETFs Advance​ Volume compare to the ETF s Declining Volume the most Overbought level since February 13 2014.

We are into the September 17 Day Range, day which we had a Shooting Star: 199.28 to 202.89.
​The Rally we had from September 30 is coming only from 3 SP500 Sectors:
​SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ? that makes me cautious at those levels...

The other factor that is quite unusual is that Financials Stocks Volatility did not fall corresponding to the huge rally we had since September 30: ​​SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?

​​Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )at all costs here - now at 199.46.

​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 202.89 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.89 MAX 203.71.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 200.56 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.46 MAX 198.12 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til October 14th.
​​Next big support is at 199.46 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 200.30 to 202.10.


​​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?

​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: SPY Rally: A Junk Technical Rebound ?


​​
​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 200.56 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 200.56 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 200.56 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​199.46 MAX 198.12 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.20 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 200.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til October 14th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​200.30 and 202.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 9 - Executive Summary - Broke the 50 DMA?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 199.65 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​198.74 MAX 196.83 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 199.65 - The 50 DMA
​​October 9

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​We almost kissed the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84 on October 7 - still into the Greed Phase.
VIX and Gold and US Dollar correlation are within the increase Volatility set up.
FOMC minutes could bring that volatility set up...​

​​​Another Dovish Fed pushed the Market beyond its limit. We did broke on October 8 the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84 and closed above. From the Greed Level zone we are now into overbought territory.
In fact, according to the ​ratio of ​the ​ETFs Advance​ Volume compare to the ETF s Declining Volume the most Overbought level since February 13 2014.

Bulls need to protect the 50 DMA at all costs here.​​

​​​​​​​​​​​Take note that the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 199.65.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 201.55 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.89 MAX 203.71.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 199.65 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​198.74 MAX 196.83 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th.
​​Next big support is at 199.65 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 199.60 to 201.60.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) On October 8, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84
2) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​3) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​4) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​5) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​9 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Buybacks Underperforming: Buyback Shares Index: Underperforming SP500 ?
5) Short Term Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?
​6) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Resistance Zone Reached ?
7) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk On Behavior ?
8) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?
9) Short Term Technicals: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Overbought Zone ​?

​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 199.65 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 199.65 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 199.65 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​198.74 MAX 196.86 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.23 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 199.65 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​199.60 and 201.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​October 8 - Executive Summary - Kissed the 50 DMA?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 198.11 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​197.24 MAX 196.51 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 198.11 - The Support Trendline

October 8

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​We did have a close above the resistance trendline that started back on August 18; for a Real Break Out, we need a daily today avbove the 197.67 level. As I wrote before, that was the target ( 198.44 ); from here it is pure Greed.

We almost kissed the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 199.84 on October 7 - still into the Greed Phase.
VIX and Gold and US Dollar correlation are within the increase Volatility set up.
FOMC minutes could bring that volatility set up...​

​​​
​​​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.14.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 200.55 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​202.89 MAX 204.11.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 198.11 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.24 MAX 196.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th.
​​Next big support is at 195.14 and next big resistance is at 199.84
​Then today I expect a range from 197.20 to 199.80.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​2) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​3) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​4) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​8 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Buybacks Underperforming: Buyback Shares Index: Underperforming SP500 ?
5) Short Term Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?
​6) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Resistance Zone Reached ?
7) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk On Behavior ?
8) Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 198.11 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 198.11 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 198.11 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.89 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.26 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 198.11 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.20 and 199.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​October 7 - Executive Summary - Greed ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 197.67 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​196.44 MAX 195.21 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 197.67 - The Support Trendline
October 7

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​The most interesting technical factors is that we tested back on October 5 that Major Resistance Trendline that started back on August 18.​. ​We are now getting into the Resistance zone for SPY ETF and only a Daily Close above will bring another Bull Impulse. From here it is pure Greed... As seasonals usually turn for a last wave down til October 9th.

We did have a close above the resistance trendline that started back on August 18; for a Real Break Out, we need a daily today avbove the 197.67 level. As I wrote before, that was the target ( 198.44 ); from here it is pure Greed.


​​​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 194.91.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 199.84 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​200.04 MAX 200.41.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 197.67 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​196.44 MAX 195.21 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th.
​​Next big support is at 194.91 and next big resistance is at 200.04
​Then today I expect a range from 197.80 to 199.30.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​2) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​3) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​4) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Buybacks Underperforming: Buyback Shares Index: Underperforming SP500 ?
5) Short Term Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?
​6) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Resistance Zone Reached ?
7) Risk Behavior: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk On Behavior ?

​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 197.67 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 197.67 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 197.67 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.89 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.30 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 197.67 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleed Trade Pattern trend til October 9th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.80 and 199.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​October 6 - Executive Summary - Target Reached ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 196.29 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​193.02 MAX 192.56 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 194.89 - The 20 DMA
October 6

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​Last Friday was quite a surprise in terms of jobs ( weaker ) and in terms of markets ( stronger stocks and weaker US Dollar ). One of the rare Upday with strong Volume since August 24:
​SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?
​​Not only we made a huge upwave, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62.
Ideally from here, for a few rading sessions, staying above it will mean strong technicals.
But be aware that Seasonals​​​ are into an uptrend til October 6th and puke down til October 9th to recover til month end: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
The next big challenge for Bulls is the Resistance Trendline that started back on August 18 at 198.46.

The most interesting technical factors is that we tested back on October 5 that Major Resistance Trendline that started back on August 18.​. ​We are now getting into the Resistance zone for SPY ETF and only a Daily Close above will bring another Bull Impulse. From here it is pure Greed... As seasonals usually turn for a last wave down til October 9th.


​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 194.89.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 198.44 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.84 MAX 200.22.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 196.26 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.89 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bid Trade Pattern trend til October 6th.
​​Next big support is at 194.59 and next big resistance is at 198.46
​Then today I expect a range from 196.80 to 199.10.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​2) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​3) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​4) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Buybacks Underperforming: Buyback Shares Index: Underperforming SP500 ?
5) Short Term Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?
​6) 5) Short Term Technicals: SPY Technicals: Resistance Zone Reached ?


​​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 196.26 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 196.26 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 196.26 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.89 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.34 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 196.26 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bid Trade Pattern trend til October 6th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​196.80 and 199.10.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
October 5 - Executive Summary - Resistance Trendline ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 194.59 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​193.02 MAX 192.56 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Above 194.59 - The 20 DMA
​​October 5

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​Already the NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ): Expectations are for +203K.
I will focus on the Average Hourly earnings ( expected at 0.2%) as the Fed become sensitive to employment
potential inflation pressure.
​Best scenario will be to go test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 194.62 and fade...
​​​​
​​Last Friday was quite a surprise in terms of jobs ( weaker ) and in terms of markets ( stronger stocks and weaker US Dollar ). One of the rare Upday with strong Volume since August 24:
​SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?

​​Not only we made a huge upwave, we did close above the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62.
Ideally from here, for a few rading sessions, staying above it will mean strong technicals.

But be aware that Seasonals​​​ are into an uptrend til October 6th and puke down til October 9th to recover til month end: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?

The next big challenge for Bulls is the Resistance Trendline that started back on August 18 at 198.46.

​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 194.59.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 194.62 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.96 MAX 197.56.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.35 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bid Trade Pattern trend til October 6th.
​​Next big support is at 194.59 and next big resistance is at 198.46
​Then today I expect a range from 193.90 to 195.90.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) On October 2, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 194.62
​​2) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​3) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​4) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Last October Correction Wave ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Buybacks Underperforming: Buyback Shares Index: Underperforming SP500 ?
5) Short Term Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Stronger ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 194.59 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 194.59 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 194.59 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​193.02 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.36 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 194.59 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bid Trade Pattern trend til October 6th. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.90 and 195.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​October 2 - Executive Summary - Test of the 20 DMA ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​190.56 MAX 189.61 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Reach - Test 194.62 - The 20 DMA

​​October 2

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​We are into a Dead Cat Bounce Only; Best scenario will be to go test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now art 194.78 and fade...
The Macro Technical Picture looks bad: ​​SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ?

​Already the NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ): Expectations are for +203K.
I will focus on the Average Hourly earnings ( expected at 0.2%) as the Fed become sensitive to employment
potential inflation pressure.

​Best scenario will be to go test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now art 194.62 and fade...
​​​​
​​
​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 194.62.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 194.62 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.96 MAX 197.56.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.35 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd.
​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 194.62
​Then today I expect a range from 191.90 to 194.50.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Oversold potential: Signs of Market Capitulation ?
​5) A must follow: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
6) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 191.91 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 191.91 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.35 MAX 190.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.41 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 180.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​191.90 and 194.50.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

October 1 - Executive Summary - Follow Through on the Dead Cat Bounce
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​190.56 MAX 189.61 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Reach - Test 197.78 - The 20 DMA
​​October 1

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​We did close above the 190.98 level on Sept 30, triggering the Bull Case
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​End of the Month and of the Quarter. We can expect some rebalancing as performance til now for September for bonds ( IEF ETF ) is up +1.56% and the Mighty SP500 Index is down - 4.47%. So expect a dead cat bounce to 190.98 MAX 191.91 and fade...
The Yen becomes a must follow here: ​​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?

We are into a Dead Cat Bounce Only; Best scenario will be to go test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now art 194.78 and fade...

The Macro Technical Picture looks bad: ​​SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ?


​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 194.78.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 194.78 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.72 MAX 199.79.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 189.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd.
​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 194.78
​Then today I expect a range from 192.10 to 194.40.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Oversold potential: Signs of Market Capitulation ?
​5) A must follow: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
6) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 30 ) as long as we stay above 191.91 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 191.91 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 191.91 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 189.61 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.41 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 180.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.10 and 194.40.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​September 30 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 190.98 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​191.91 MAX 192.56 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 190.98 - Downtrend Channel Resistance.
September 30

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​We start to see signs of capitulation in the market, so can rebound anytime - the actual timing of it is tough.
​Signs of Market Capitulation ?

​​End of the Month and of the Quarter. We can expect some rebalancing as performance til now for September for bonds ( IEF ETF ) is up +1.56% and the Migghty SP500 Index is down - 4.47%. So expect a dead cat bounce to 190.98 MAX 191.91 and fade...

The Yen becomes a must follow here: ​​SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 197.79.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 190.98 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​191.91 MAX 192.56.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 187.64 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​186.93 MAX 184.41 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd.
​​Next big support is at 184.41 and next big resistance is at 190.98
​Then today I expect a range from 188.80 to 191.90.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


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​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Oversold potential: Signs of Market Capitulation ?
​5) A must follow: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 190.98 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 190.98 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 190.98 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​191.91 MAX 192.56 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.45 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 187.64 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​188.80 and 191.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​September 29 - Executive Summary - Capitulation Signs
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 192.30 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​193.47 MAX 195.27 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 192.30 - Downtrend Channel Resistance.
September 29

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We did have a dead cat bounce near the open, tested the resistance trendline that started on September 22 ( Blus Trendline Chart Below ) that was rejected violently.
We are trading like the US Dollar Index; Big Picture continue to deteriorate:
​SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?

​​​
​​​​​​​​We start to see signs of capitulation in the market, so can rebound anytime - the actual timing of it is tough.
​Signs of Market Capitulation ?

​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.26.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 193.63 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​194.46 MAX 195.21.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.61 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 188.37 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd.
​​Next big support is at 186.92 and next big resistance is at 192.30
​Then today I expect a range from 187.60 to 192.30.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​4) Oversold potential: Signs of Market Capitulation ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 192.30 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 192.30 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 192.30 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​193.47 MAX 195.27 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.54 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 187.64 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​187.60 and 192.30.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​September 28 - Executive Summary - Downtrend Channel

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 193.63 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​194.46 MAX 195.21 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 193.63 - Downtrend Channel Resistance.
​​September 28

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
Yesterday, we did close stronger in a multiple way:
1) We did retest the low of September 1 and rebounded
2) We did create a Hammer at the bottom since the Shooting Star Peak on September 17
3) Volume was stronger on an uptick day
Still , Volatility ain t over and we will need to be carefull as Friday s performance have been bad:
​​​​​​Does Friday Hold The Key To The Stock Market?
So Only a Dead Cat Bounce...​

We did have a dead cat bounce near the open, tested the resistance trendline that started on September 22 ( Blus Trendline Chart Below ) thta was rejected violently.

We are trading like the US Dollar Index; Big Picture continue to deteriorate:
​SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?

​​​
​​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.83.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 193.63 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​194.46 MAX 195.21.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 191.61 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​190.56 MAX 188.37 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd.
​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 195.83
​Then today I expect a range from 191.00 to 193.60.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Big Picture: SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 193.63 on a daily close.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 193.63 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 193.63 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​194.46 MAX 195.21 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.61 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 190.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til October 3rd. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​191.00 and 193.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.



September 25 - Executive Summary - Hammer Time

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​196.23 MAX 197.70 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 195.45 - August 25 Daily High.
​​​September 25

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesyerday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​Dead cat bounce was weaker than expected with a high at only 194.67. Risk here is increase Volatility and resuming the main trend - down...

Yesterday, we did close stronger in a multiple way:
1) We did retest the low of September 1 and rebounded
2) We did create a Hammer at the bottom since the Shooting Star Peak on September 17
3) Volume was stronger on an uptick day

Still , Volatility ain t over and we will need to be carefull as Friday s performance have been bad:
​​​​​​Does Friday Hold The Key To The Stock Market?

So Only a Dead Cat Bounce...​

​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 196.15.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​196.15 MAX 197.70.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.89 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.61 MAX 190.73 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25.
​​Next big support is at 190.56 and next big resistance is at 196.15
​Then today I expect a range from 193.90 to 195.90.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?
4) Broken Pennant: SPY Technicals: Pennant Resistance Retested ?
5) Short Term Support: DJ Industrials: Support Trendline at Play ?
6) Weak Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 195.45 on a daily close.

​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.45 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​196.15 MAX 197.70 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.68 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 190.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.90 and 195.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
September 24 - Executive Summary - More Volatility

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​196.23 MAX 197.70 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 195.45 - August 25 Daily High.
September 24

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesyerday I wrote:​​
Tiny Technical Rebound to 195.30 MAX 195.91 before resuming downtrend. The 20 DMA will make the difference here. China turmoil continus with weak PMI - so Volatility will prevail...​

​​​​​​​​​​Dead cat bounce was weaker than expected with a high at only 194.67. Risk here is increase Volatility and resuming the main trend - down...


​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.91.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​196.23 MAX 197.70.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.89 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​191.61 MAX 190.73 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25.
​​Next big support is at 192.56 and next big resistance is at 196.23
​Then today I expect a range from 192.40 to 194.60.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?
4) Broken Pennant: SPY Technicals: Pennant Resistance Retested ?
5) Short Term Support: DJ Industrials: Support Trendline at Play ?
6) Weak Technicals: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 195.45 on a daily close.

​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.45 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​196.23 MAX 197.70 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.75 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 192.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.40 and 194.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​
September 23 - Executive Summary - Technical Rebound

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 195.91 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​196.37 MAX 197.70 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 195.91 - Sept 10 Daily Low.
September 23

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesyerday I wrote:​​
As expected we did have our Dead Cat Bounce on September 21. But the most interesting technical factors is that we tested back on September 21 that Resistance Trendline from that Broken​​ Pennant in the expected Dead Cat Bounce move and was rejected. That Dead Cat Bounce move and retest of the Trendline was done in a lower volume environment, typical of Bulls losing control to ​the Bears.
Now we are Resuming Downtrrend. A Daily close below 194.22 will put Bears in total control of that market.​​

Tiny Technical Rebound to 195.30 MAX 195.91 before resuming downtrend. The 20 DMA will make the difference here. China turmoil continus with weak PMI - so Volatility will prevail...​

​​​​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.91.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.91 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​196.37 MAX 197.70.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 192.89 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.56 MAX 191.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25.
​​Next big support is at 192.56 and next big resistance is at 197.70
​Then today I expect a range from 193.50 to 195.90.

​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?
4) Broken Pennant: SPY Technicals: Pennant Resistance Retested ?
5) Short Term Support: DJ Industrials: Support Trendline at Play ?


​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 195.91 on a daily close.

​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.91 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 195.91 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​196.37 MAX 197.70 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.82 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 192.56 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.50 and 195.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​September 22 - Executive Summary  Resuming Downtrend ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​197.70 MAX 198.99 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Below 194.22 - Sept 10 Daily Low.
​​​September 22

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesyerday I wrote:​​
​We did trade back below 199.02 which was the first shot across the bow last Friday.
We are within a Dead Cat Bounce Only to 196.37 MAX 197.61 before resuming downtrend.​​

As expected we did have our Dead Cat Bounce on September 21. But the most interesting technical factors is that we tested back on September 21 that Resistance Trendline from that Broken​​ Pennant in the expected Dead Cat Bounce move and was rejected. That Dead Cat Bounce move and retest of the Trendline was done in a lower volume environment, typical of Bulls losing control to ​the Bears.

Now we are Resuming Downtrrend. A Daily close below 194.22 will put Bears in total control of that market.​​


​​​​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.70.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​197.70 MAX 199.99.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 194.22 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.89 MAX 191.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25.
​​Next big support is at 194.22 and next big resistance is at 198.11
​Then today I expect a range from 193.80 to 196.40.

Even on the Dow Jones Transports ( DJT ) we had on September 18 a Rejection Pattern:
​DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?


​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?
4) Broken Pennant: SPY Technicals: Pennant Resistance Retested ?


​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay below 196.37 on a daily close.

​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 196.37 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​197.70 MAX 198.99 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.89 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 194.22 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.80 and 196.40.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


September 21 - Executive Summary - Dead Cat Bounce

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on Sept 18, triggering the Bear Case.
Shooting Star was a serious warning.
​​​​Only a daily close above 197.61 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​198.97 MAX 199.84 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay Below 197.61 - the Pennant Resistance Trendline.

​​​September 21

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 199.21 level on September 18, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
That Break Out was done on low volume on September 16 to be followed on September 17 by a Shooting Star
​SPY Technicals: My Dear Shooting Star Pattern ?

​We did trade back below 199.02 which was the first shot across the bow last Friday.

We are within a Dead Cat Bounce Only to 196.37 MAX 197.61 before resuming downtrend.​​

​​​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 195.75.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 197.61 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​198.97 MAX 199.84.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 194.96 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.22 MAX 192.89 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25.
​​Next big support is at 194.22 and next big resistance is at 197.61
​Then today I expect a range from 195.50 to 197.60.

Even on the Dow Jones Transports ( DJT ) we had on September 18 a Rejection Pattern:
​DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?


​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​1) ​On September 18, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 195.75
​2) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​3) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​5) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
6) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​7) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
8) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Bleed ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Short Term Technicals: DJ Transports Technicals - Rejection ?


​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 18 ) as long as we stay above 197.61 on a daily close.

​​We broke on September 18 an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 197.61 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 197.61 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​198.97 MAX 199.84 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 206.95 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 194.22 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Bleeding Trade Pattern trend til September 25. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​195.50 and 197.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.



​​​​September 18 - Executive Summary  Shooting Star ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
Broke the Pennant Resistance at 199.28 then Break Out.
​​​​Only a daily close below 199.02 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​197.86 MAX 196.82 for now...

Technical Challenge:
September 18

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
We did have a technical Break Out on September 16 at 199.28 on the Pennant Trendline.
IF we have a real Break Out, we should not trade back inside that Trendline now becomes Support at 199.02

That Break Out was done on low ùvolume on September 16 to be followed on September 17 by a Shooting Star
​SPY Technicals: My Dear Shooting Star Pattern ?


​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 196.18.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 201.72 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​203.32 MAX 204.38.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 199.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.70 MAX 196.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.
​​Next big support is at 199.02 and next big resistance is at 202.89
​Then today I expect a range from 197.80 to 199.90.

What bothers me here is that the Break Out have been done on lower volume:
​SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?

​​​Interesting to note thta Small Speculators reached last week the Longest Position ever on the
​E-Mini SP500 Futures with 426.1k contracts:E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?

Also, Financials are closer to break that Pennant Resistance Trendline:
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?


​​Volatility in the Chinese Stocks is not abating: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​2) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​4) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
5) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​6) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
7) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​7 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technical Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
4) Stocks Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
5) Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?
6) Weak Rebound: SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?
​7) Reversal Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Shooting Star Pattern ?


​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 14 ) as long as we stay above 199.02 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.82 as suport and 208.10 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 199.02 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 199.02 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.86 MAX 196.82 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.00 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 199.02 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.80 and 199.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​September 17 - Executive Summary Break Out

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
Broke the Pennant Resistance at 199.28 then Break Out.
​​​​Only a daily close below 199.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​197.70 MAX 196.61 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above 199.21 - the Pennant Support Trendline.

​​September 17

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Finally some good news from China: China Stocks Jump in Last Hour of Trading on State Support Signs
​​​​​​​​​I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ:SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 195.70 on the support side and 199.28 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

We did have a technical Break Out on September 16 at 199.28 on the Pennant Trendline.
IF we have a real Break Out, we should not trade back inside that Trendline now becomes Support at 199.21​


​​​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 196.61.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 201.72 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​203.32 MAX 204.38.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 199.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​197.70 MAX 196.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.
​​Next big support is at 199.21 and next big resistance is at 204.38
​Then today I expect a range from 197.80 to 201.70.

What bothers me here is that the Break Out have been done on lower volume:
​SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?

​​​Interesting to note thta Small Speculators reached last week the Longest Position ever on the
​E-Mini SP500 Futures with 426.1k contracts: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?

Also, Financials are closer to break that Pennant Resistance Trendline:
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?


​​Volatility in the Chinese Stocks is not abating: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
1) ​On September 16, we broke the Pennant Resistance Trendline then at 199.28
​​2) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​4) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
5) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​6) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
7) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technical Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
4) Stocks Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
5) Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?
6) Weak Rebound: SPY ETF PVT: Break Out without Strenght ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 14 ) as long as we stay above 199.21 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 196.35 as suport and 207.54 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 199.21 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 199.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.70 MAX 194.22 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.04 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 199.21 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.80 and 201.90.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​September 16 - Executive Summary  - The Pennant

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
The Pennant will call the next Big Move: 195.70 or 199.28 broken.
​​​​Only a daily close below 196.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​195.70 MAX 194.22 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close above 199.28 on a Daily close - the Pennant Resistance Trendline.
​​September 16

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close above the 196.37 level on September 15, triggering the Bull Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Other bad news from China: China Stocks Sink Again as Growth Concerns Spur Investor Exodus
​​​​​​​​​I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ:SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 195.21 on the support side and 199.23 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

Finally some good news from China: China Stocks Jump in Last Hour of Trading on State Support Signs

​​​​​​​​​I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ:SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 195.70 on the support side and 199.28 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...


​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 197.10.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 199.28 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.84 MAX 200.85.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 195.70 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.22 MAX 192.89 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.
​​Next big support is at 195.70 and next big resistance is at 199.28
​Then today I expect a range from 197.10 to 199.20.

Interesting to note thta Small Speculators reached last week the Longest Position ever on the
​E-Mini SP500 Futures with 426.1k contracts: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?

Also, Financials are closer to break that Pennant Resistance Trendline:
​SP500 Financials (XLF) : Near Break Out ?


​​Volatility in the Chinese Stocks is not abating: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​1) ​On September 14, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 197.70
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​2) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​3) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
4) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​5) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
6) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technical Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
4) Stocks Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
5) Positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Longest Position Ever ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 14 ) as long as we stay above 196.37 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 195.70 as suport and 207.07 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 196.37 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 196.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.70 MAX 194.22 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.07 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 195.70 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.10 and 199.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

September 15 - Executive Summary  Still into the Pennant ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 196.37 level on September 14, triggering the Bear Case.
The Pennant will call the next Big Move: 195.21 or 199.23 broken.
​​​​Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​197.01 MAX 197.70 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close below 195.21 on a Daily close - the Pennant Support Trendline.
September 15

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close below the 196.37 level on September 14, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​The market did rebound strongly last Friday, quite astonishing for risk taking before a week end.
China data continue to be on the weak side and will keep financial markets on the volatile side:
​China's Stocks Decline Most in Three Weeks on Slowdown Concerns
​​​​​​​I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ:SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 194.53 on the support side and 199.29 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

Other bad news from China: China Stocks Sink Again as Growth Concerns Spur Investor Exodus

​​​​​​I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ:SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 195.21 on the support side and 199.23 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...


​​​Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 197.70.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 199.29 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.84 MAX 201.43.
​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 195.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.22 MAX 192.89 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.
​​Next big support is at 195.21 and next big resistance is at 197.70
​Then today I expect a range from 194.90 to 196.80.

Volatility in the Chinese Stocks is not abating: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?

​​​Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).



​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technical Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
4) Stocks Volatility: China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a BearTrade mode ( since September 14 ) as long as we stay below 196.37 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 195.21 as suport and 206.49 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 196.37 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​197.01 MAX 197.70 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.12 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 195.21 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​194.90 and 196.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​
September 14 - Executive Summary  Follow the Pennant ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 196.37 level on September 11, triggering the Bull Case.
The Pennant will call the next Big Move: 194.53 or 199.29 broken.
​​​​Only a daily close below 196.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​195.53 MAX 194.53 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close above 199.29 on a Daily close - the Pennant Resistance Trendline.
September 14

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close above the 196.37 level on September 11, triggering the Bull Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Last Fridayday I wrote:​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​Market Volatility continue as illiquidity and uncertainties arise from everywhere: Brazil cut by SP will just add some volatility to the whole market...
I still follow​ the CBOE Emerging Markets VIX and the YEN as proxy for Volatility.
The best technical set up here will be to​​ test the support of the uptrend channel at 192.89 and rebound.
The question tht do arise each Fridays lately: who wants to hold risk through the week end?​
​​
The market did rebound strongly last Friday, quite astonishing for risk taking before a week end.
China data continue to be on the weak side and will keep financial markets on the volatile side:
​China's Stocks Decline Most in Three Weeks on Slowdown Concerns
​​
I will put all my attention on a Technical Pattern call a Pennant that will trigger the next big move when broken. READ: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?
For todays level: 194.53 on the support side and 199.29 on the resistance side.​
​Until that Technical Pattern being triggered, we can be stuck within a trading range, a widow maker...

Take note that the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is at 198.38.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 199.29 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.84 MAX 201.43.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 194.53 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.89 MAX 191.61 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.

​​Next big support is at 194.53 and next big resistance is at 198.38

​​Then today I expect a range from 195.30 to 197.60.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).



​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Technical Pattern: SPY Technicals: My Dear Pennant Pattern ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 11 ) as long as we stay above 196.37 on a daily close.

​​We are within an uptrend channel that started on August 25 with 194.53 as suport and 205.90 as resistance.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 196.37 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close below 196.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.53 MAX 194.53 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.17 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 194.53 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​195.30 and 197.60.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​​​September 11 - Executive Summary Lower Highs ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 196.72 level on September 9, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​197.86 MAX 198.97 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close below 194.22 on a Daily close.
September 11

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close below the 196.72 level on September 9, triggering the Bear Case.
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
Another move by China Overnight thta tells me how desperate they are:
​Yuan Drops as PBOC Cuts Reference Rate by Most Since Devaluation

​​​​​​​​​​​​Market Volatility continue as illiquidity and uncertainties arise from everywhere: Brazil cut by SP will just add some volatility to the whole market...

I still follow​ the CBOE Emerging Markets VIX and the YEN as proxy for Volatility.

The best technical set up here will be to​​ test the support of the uptrend channel at 192.89 and rebound.
The question tht do arise each Fridays lately: who wants to hold risk through the week end?​
​​

​​​​Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​197.86 MAX 198.97.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 194.22 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.89 MAX 192.42 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.

​​Next big support is at 192.89 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 193.00 to 196.40.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

Those upmove are done with low Volume so liquidity is not there:
​SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​Interesting to note that the SKEW Index tell us that the market was totally unprepared to that down move:
​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility Still: The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
4) What to Follow on Volatility: SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
​5) Surprise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?
6) Low Volume: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 9 ) as long as we stay below 196.37 on a daily close.

​​We are back an uptrend channel that started on September 1 with 192.89 as suport and 199.63 as resistance.

​​We broke on September 8 a downtrend channel that started on August 28 with 188.96 as suport and 197.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 196.37 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 196.37 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​197.86 MAX 198.97 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.22 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 194.22 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​193.30 and 196.40.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
September 10 - Executive Summary

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 196.72 level on September 9, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage; failed to close above 197.86
​​​​Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​199.13 MAX 199.63 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close below 197.86 on a Daily close.

​​
September 10 Risky Business ?

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close below the 196.72 level on September 9, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only Dead Cat Bounce at this stage. unless a daily close above 197.86
That market is risky, volatile and trendless - so caution is advised​

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​We did break on September 8 the resistance of a Downtrend Channel that started back on August 28 with 197.12 as resistance. Closeing price on September 8 was 197.46.
​​We are trading in pre-market above the Major Resistance at 197.86 which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking 197.86 this week is higher indeed...
Next big challenge for Bulls:
1) ​Close above the 197.86 level
2) ​and test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 200.32

Another move by China Overnight thta tells me how desperate they are:
​Yuan Drops as PBOC Cuts Reference Rate by Most Since Devaluation

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.13 MAX 199.63.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 195.21 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​194.35 MAX 192.89 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.

​​Next big support is at 195.21 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 195.20 to 197.80.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

Those upmove are done with low Volume so liquidity is not there:
​SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​Interesting to note that the SKEW Index tell us that the market was totally unprepared to that down move:
​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​6 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility Still: The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
4) What to Follow on Volatility: SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
​5) Surprise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?
6) Low Volume: SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 9 ) as long as we stay below 197.86 on a daily close.

​​We are back an uptrend channel that started on September 1 with 192.56 as suport and 199.47 as resistance.

​​We broke on September 8 a downtrend channel that started on August 28 with 188.96 as suport and 197.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 197.86 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​200.32 MAX 201.30 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.28 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 195.21 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​195.20 and 197.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​​​September 9 - Executive Summary  197.86 at Play ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 195.45 level on September 8, triggering the Bull Case.
It is only a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage unless close above 197.86
​​​​Only a daily close below 196.72 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​195.21 MAX 194.22 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Close Above 197.86 on a Daily close.
September 9

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did close above the 195.45 level on September 8, triggering the Bull Case.
It is only Dead Cat Bounce at this stage. unless a daily close above 197.86

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​A strong rebound a the time of writing (SPY trading at 196.79). I am quite surprise as another bad data on the Chinese economy was published: China Rebounds as Trade Data Disappoints
​Chinese stocks dropped as much as 2.2 percent, before rebounding in the last two hours of trading,suggesting state-backed support after four days of declines.
We will continue to see those wild swings unless Emerging Markets Currencies Volatility abate:
​​​SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
Also adding to that are the US Market Positions that will keep Volatility​​ high:
​The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
​We did reach the 193.12 level bear target on September 4 ( did trade as low as 191.61 ) which was quite a move within a single day. We are back near the Major Resistance at 197.86 which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking 197.86 this week is higher indeed...
My focus will be on a Downtrend Channel that started back on August 28 with 197.12 as resistance.


​We did break on September 8 the resistance of a Downtrend Channel that started back on August 28 with 197.12 as resistance. Closeing price on September 8 was 197.46.

​We are trading in pre-market above the Major Resistance at 197.86 which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking 197.86 this week is higher indeed...

Next big challenge for Bulls:
1) ​Close above the 197.86 level
2) ​and test the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 200.32

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 199.84 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​200.32 MAX 201.30.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 196.72 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.21 MAX 194.22 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.

​​Next big support is at 197.86 and next big resistance is at 200.32

​​Then today I expect a range from 197.80 to 199.80.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

Interesting to note that the SKEW Index tell us that the market was totally unprepared to that down move:
​​SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility Still: The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
4) What to Follow on Volatility: SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?
​5) Surprise: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: This Time is Different ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 8 ) as long as we stay above 196.72 on a daily close.

​​We are back an uptrend channel that started on September 1 with 192.25 as suport and 199.09 as resistance.

​​We broke on September 8 a downtrend channel that started on August 28 with 188.96 as suport and 197.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 196.72 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bull mode.

Only a daily close above 199.84 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​200.32 MAX 201.30 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.33 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade below the 196.72 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​197.80 and 199.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​
September 8 - Executive Summary   Another Rebound or ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did reach the 197.86 level on September 3, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.
​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​196.37 MAX 197.01 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below 197.86 on a Daily close.
September 8

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did reach the 197.86 level on September 3, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.

​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​​​We did reached both Dead Cat Bounce targets on September 3rd: 197.01 and 197.86 and failed to close above.
That confirm to me that we had only a dead cat bounce.​
​Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the stock market...
​​
A strong rebound a the time of writing (SPY trading at 196.79). I am quite surprise as another bad data on the Chinese economy was published: China Rebounds as Trade Data Disappoints
​Chinese stocks dropped as much as 2.2 percent, before rebounding in the last two hours of trading,suggesting state-backed support after four days of declines.

We will continue to see those wild swings unless Emerging Markets Currencies Volatility abate:
​​​SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?

Also adding to that are the US Market Positions that will keep Volatility​​ high:
​The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?

We did reach the 193.12 level bear target on September 4 ( did trade as low as 191.61 ) which was quite a move within a single day. We are back near the Major Resistance at 197.86 which, for me will make all the difference between another Technical Rebound or a more Bullish sustained move... What have changed though is that now seasonals are for a Grinding Market... So the chance of Breaking 197.86 this week is higher indeed...

My focus will be on a Downtrend Channel that started back on August 28 with 197.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​196.37 MAX 197.01.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 193.12 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 190.74 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grinding Trade Pattern trend til September 20.

​​Next big support is at 195.30 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 195.00 to 197.80.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).


​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : The Grind ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Volatility Still: The COT Positions Perfect Storm ?
4) What to Follow on Volatility: SP500 Index: a Currency or Volatility Play ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 3 ) as long as we stay below 195.45 on a daily close.

​​We are within a downtrend channel that started on August 28 with 188.96 as suport and 197.12 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.45 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 193.12 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 190.74 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.37 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 193.12 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a GrindTrade Pattern trend til September 20. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​195.00 and 197.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
​September 4 - Executive Summary Dead Cat Bounce Confirmed ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did reach the 197.86 level on September 3, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only a Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.
​​​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​195.84 MAX 197.01 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay above 193.12 on a Daily close.
​​September 4

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

We did reach the 197.86 level on September 3, triggering the Bear Case.
It was only Dead Cat Bounce at this stage.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​Stocks Markets closed in China seems to give the green light for that strong dead cat bounce:
​DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?
Illiquidity prevail and market shifts are violent: caution is advised.
​Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the market...
​​​​We did break the 194.79 resistance level near the close that open the window to 197.01 MAX 197.86 which will make the differnce between a dead cat bounce or a more serious Bull wave.

We did reached both Dead Cat Bounce targets on September 3rd: 197.01 and 197.86 and failed to close above.
That confirm to me that we had only a dead cat bounce.​

​Also, for Friday NFP ( Non-Farm Payrolls ), we will have an asymmetrical risk profile:
a weak number (below 125k) will be a disaster​ and a strong surprise for the stock market...
​​

​​Only a daily close above 195.45 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.84 MAX 197.01.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 193.12 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 190.74 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.

​​Next big support is at 190.74 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 192.00 to 194.80.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
4) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?
5) Critical Levels: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?
6) Tech Levels Update1: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since September 3 ) as long as we stay below 195.45 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 195.45 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 193.12 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 190.74 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.44 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 193.12 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til September 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.00 and 194.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​September 3 - Executive Summary  Dead Cat Bounce ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 194.79 level on September 2, triggering the Bull Case.
Dead Cat Bounce Only at this stage.
​​​​Only a daily close below 193.17 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​192.42 MAX 191.11 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the resistance at 197.86 and break it on a Daily close.
September 3

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 194.79 level on September 2, triggering the Bull Case.
Dead Cat Bounce Only at this stage.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​Best scenario on September the 1 was to Test the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 191.11 and rebound.
We had that; Next is to retest resistance at 194.79...​
We are at Crossroads as we reached technicals levels here:
​​​DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?

Stocks Markets closed in China seems to give the green light for that strong dead cat bounce:
​DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?

Illiquidity prevail and market shifts are violent: caution is advised.

​​​We did break the 194.79 resistance level near the close that open the window to 197.01 MAX 197.86 which will make the differnce between a dead cat bounce or a more serious Bull wave.

Only a daily close above 194.79 ( it did on September 2 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.84 MAX 197.86. Adjusted targets over 195.84 are 197.01 MAX 197.86.

​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 193.17 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 191.11 for now...

​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.

​​Next big support is at 191.11 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 194.80 to 197.00.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
4) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?
5) Critical Levels: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?
6) Tech Levels Update1: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals - Update1 ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since September 2 ) as long as we stay above 193.17 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 193.17 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 193.17 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​192.42 MAX 191.11 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.48 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 193.17 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til September 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​194.80 and 197.00.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​September 2 - Executive Summary  Critical Levels ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 197.86 level on August 31, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 194.79 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​195.84 MAX 197.86 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the resistance at 194.79 and fail to break.
September 2

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 197.86 level on August 31, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​We did closed the gap between the 21 to the 24 of August and then closed yesterday below the 197.86 support trendline; a dead cat bounce only it was...
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us... And China:
​China Factory Gauge Shrinks to 3-Year Low as Germany Picks Up
We must realize that the Big Picture have changed here:
​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?


Best scenario on September the 1 was to Test the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 191.11 and rebound.
We had that; Next is to retest resistance at 194.79...​

We are at Crossroads as we reached technicals levels here:
​​​DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?

​​​​​​Only a daily close below 197.86 ( it did on August 31 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.21 MAX 194.97 for now... New Targets are 193.17 to MAX 191.11 ... Reached

​​​​Only a daily close above 194.79 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​195.84 MAX 197.86.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.

​​Next big support is at 191.11 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 192.40 to 195.20.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
4) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?
5) Critical Levels: DJ Transports: Critical Technicals ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 31 ) as long as we stay below 197.86 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 194.79 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 194.79 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​195.84 MAX 197.86 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.58 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade above the 194.79 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til September 5. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.10 and 194.80.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​September 1 - Executive Summary  Trend is your friend

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 197.86 level on August 31, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​
​199.42 MAX 199.84 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Test the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 191.11 abd rebound.
​​September 1

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 197.86 level on August 31, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares
​We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us...
But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...​​

We did closed the gap between the 21 to the 24 of August and then closed yesterday below the 197.86 support trendline; a dead cat bounce only it was...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us... And China:
​China Factory Gauge Shrinks to 3-Year Low as Germany Picks Up

We must realize that the Big Picture have changed here:
​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?


​​​​Only a daily close below 197.86 ( it did on August 31 ) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.21 MAX 194.97 for now... New Targets are 193.17 to MAX 191.11

​​​​Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​199.42 MAX 199.84.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.

​​Next big support is at 191.11 and next big resistance is at 197.86

​​Then today I expect a range from 192.40 to 195.20.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​4 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
4) Macro Technicals: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: Major Turnaround ?



​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 31 ) as long as we stay below 197.86 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 197.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 197.86 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​199.42 MAX 199.84 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.58 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade above the 197.86 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.


​​​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​192.40 and 195.20.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​August 31 Month End


​​​August 31 - Executive Summary

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​​​Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​
​195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...

Technical Challenge: Close Above 197.86​​ and challenge the 2nd gap
zone at 203.90​

​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​Last Friday I wrote:​​
​​​Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
​We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 197.52 zone. ​The second gap is a lot higher at the 203.90 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )
​We need a daily close above 197.52 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...​
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.

China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares

We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us...

But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 194.97 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​197.86 MAX 198.50. New targets are 200.64 MAX 203.90.

​​Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.

​​Next big support is at 197.86 and next big resistance is at 202.93

​​Then today I expect a range from 195.20 to 199.00.

Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).

We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?

​​​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...

​Some Technical Comments:​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
​2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
​4) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98


​​​​​​​​​​Premium Service Member Pages:
​SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​​​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​3 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?



​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 197.86 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 197.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 207.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 197.86 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.

Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2002.93 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 204.12 max 204.61...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​195.20 and 199.00.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


August 28 Any Follow Through ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​TAKE NOTE that I will be switching to SPY etf instead of the e-mini futures
within the next two weeks for the technicals analysis as it is easier to
​follow and trade for most of the clients​​...

​​We did close above the 2022.5 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​
​​​China try to stabilize their stock market: China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade
We are within a dead cat bounce til the Daily Gaps in the SP500 Index are tested:
​SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
​So for SP500 futures means 1965 to MAX 2003...

Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
​We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 1965 zone.
​The second gap is a lot higher at the 2025 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )

We need a daily close above 1965 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...​

Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 1922.5 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​1951 MAX 1961.5. New targets are 1965 MAX 2003.

​​Only a daily close below 1951 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​1934.5.5 MAX 1922 for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.

​​Next big support is at 1951 and next big resistance is at 2003

​​Then today I expect a range from 1951 to 2003.


​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 1965 zone.
2) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
​3) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
4) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​5) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​6) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​7) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​9 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
​10) Technical Rebound: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 1951 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 1951 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 1951 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​1934.5 MAX 1922 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 2062 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 1951 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.

Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2003 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 2029 max 2040...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1951 and 2003.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


August 27   Dead Cat Bounce ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​TAKE NOTE that I will be switching to SPY etf instead of the e-min futures
within the next two weeks for the technicals analysis as it is easier to
​follow and trade for most of the clients​​...

​​We did close above the 2022.5 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote:​​China Financial Turmoil continue:
​China’s Stocks Slump as Rate Cut Fails to Stop $5 Trillion Rout
​We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the 1951
​resistance zone and failed.
​​WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor
​Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect ​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets...

​​China try to stabilize their stock market: China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade

We are within a dead cat bounce til the Daily Gaps in the SP500 Index are tested:
​SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?

So for SP500 futures means 1965 to MAX 2003...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close above 1922.5 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​1951 MAX 1961.5. New targets are 1965 MAX 2003.

​​Only a daily close below 1901 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​1883.5 MAX 1871.5 for now...


​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.

​​Next big support is at 1951 and next big resistance is at 2003

​​Then today I expect a range from 1934 to 1973.


​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
​2) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​4) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​5) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​6) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​9 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
​10) Technical Rebound: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 1901 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 1901 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 1901 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​1883.5 MAX 1871.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 2062 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade below the 1901 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.

Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2003 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 2029 max 2040...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1934 and 1973.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
​​​
​​August 26 Volatility Still ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote: We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave;
​I meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave...We are in a Dead Cat Bounce
​Pattern here​. ​​​​​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect
​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Nothing to add confidence back: ​China Said to Halt Stock-Market Support Amid Intervention Debate
​WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

​​China Financial Turmoil continue: China’s Stocks Slump as Rate Cut Fails to Stop $5 Trillion Rout

We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the 1951 resistance zone and failed.

​WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect ​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets...

​​Dow Therorists noted that we made new lows compare to October 2014:
DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?

​​​​​The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: ​​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1871.5 and 1860.

​​​​Only a daily close above 1922.5 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to ​1951 MAX 1961.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.

​​Next big support is at 1871.5 and next big resistance is at 1951

​​Then today I expect a range from 1850 to 1925.

Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.

Market is now pricing Extreme Fear: ​
​VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?

​​The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?

​​Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
​2) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​4) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​5) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​6) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​9 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1922.5 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 1922.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 1922.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​1951 MAX 1961.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 2063 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade above the 1922.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1850 and 1925.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


August 25 Liquidity Capitulation ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote: By breaking the Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started
​back on December 16 2014, that was the coup de Jarnac that the market
​needed less here with poor summer liquidity... And gave the Final answer
​to the Bulls:Hope is now forbidden...​
​​All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
​China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails
​​Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$.

We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave; I meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave...
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern here​. ​​​​​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect
​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Nothing to add confidence back: ​China Said to Halt Stock-Market Support Amid Intervention Debate
​WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...

Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...

​​Market is now pricing Extreme Fear: ​
​VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?

​​The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: ​​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1911 amd 1890.

​​​​Only a daily close above 1951 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​1961.5 MAX 1973.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.

​​Next big support is at 1871.5 and next big resistance is coming from the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1973.5

​​Then today I expect a range from 1872 to 1973.

Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.

The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?

​​Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
​2) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​4) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​5) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​6) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​8 factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ​?


​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1951 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 1951 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 1951 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​1961.5 MAX 1973.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 2063 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade above the 1951 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1872 and 1973​.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​August 24 The Perfect Storm ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​​We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on
​August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for
​Bulls: a ​Support Trendline then at 2038.
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I ​expect
​them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
I will start to focus on a Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014.
IF broken on a Daily basis, expect another nasty bear wave towards 1972 MAX 1951.​​​

By breaking the Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014, that was the coup de Jarnac that the market needed less here with poor summer liquidity... And gave the Final answer to the Bulls:
Hope is now forbidden...​

​​All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
​China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails

​​Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$.

​​CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...

The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: ​​SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?

​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1911 amd 1890.

​​​​Only a daily close above 1973.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​1985 MAX 2002.5.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24.

​​Next big support is at 1890 and next big resistance is coming from the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1973.5

​​Then today I expect a range from 1890 to 1965.

Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.


The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?

​​Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1) ​On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
​2) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​4) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​5) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​6) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1973.5 on a daily close.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 1973.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 1973.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​1985 MAX 2002.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 200 DMA at 2064 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20

Already starting to trade above the 1973.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​1890 and 1965.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.


​​​August 21 200 DMA Broken ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​Not Only on August 19 ( with the still Dovish FOMC )
​we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was a huge market
​rejection.Also on August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the
​wedge at then at 2079.5. We are now testing today the 200 DMA zone
​at 2063.7.​​​​Last Line of Defense for Bulls ( exclding the 200 DMA ) is a
​Support Trendline at 2038.

​We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for Bulls: a ​Support Trendline then at 2038.

Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...

I will start to focus on a Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014.
IF broken on a Daily basis, expect another nasty bear wave towards 1972 MAX 1951.​​​

​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 2001.5 amd 1992.

​​​​Only a daily close above 2046.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2056.5 MAX 2064.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24.

​​Next big support is at 2001.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the wedge at 2046.5

​​Then today I expect a range from 2001 to 2038.

Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. ​​That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.


The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?

​​Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

​​​​​​​​1) ​On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
2) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​3) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​4) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​5) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7



​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 2046.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2046.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2046.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2089 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 2000 DMA at 2064 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2064 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2001 and 2038.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​
August 20 Broken Wedge ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​By breaking on Augsut 17 the resistance trendline then
​at 2095, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that never
​came. Which is giving me another caution signal on the market...
​​​​​​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2079.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.
Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.7 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
​​​
Not Only on August 19 ( with the still Dovish FOMC ) we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was a huge market rejection.

Alos on August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the wedge at then at 2079.5.

We are now testing today the 200 DMA zone at 2063.7.​​​​

Last Line of Defense for Bulls ( exclding the 200 DMA ) is a Support Trendline at 2038.


​​Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2046.5 MAX 2038 for now...

​​​​Only a daily close above 2070.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2089.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is at 2038 and next big resistance is the resistance of the wedge at 2081

​​Then today I expect a range from 2046 to 2078.


The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
​ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?

​​Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
​2) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​3) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​4) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​5) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​6) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​7) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​8) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seven factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ​?
​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 2070.5 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay below 2070.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close above 2070.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2081 MAX 2089 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2063 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2038 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2046 and 2078.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

August 19 No Momentum ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​China continue to be a concern:
​China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern
In fact, the real concern to me is that it bring turmoil in Emerging Foreign
​Currencies - see CEW ETF as proxy.

By breaking on Augsut 17 the resistance trendline then at 2095, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that never came. Which is giving me another caution signal on the market...

​​​​​​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2079.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.

Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.7 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
​​​

​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.
Next targets are 2106.5 and 2110.5

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079.5 MAX 2072 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2079.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of thr wedge at 2106.5

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2098.


Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
​Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​2) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​3) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​4) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​5) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​6) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​7) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Six factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?

​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2088 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2088 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2079.5 MAX 2072 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2063 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2098.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​
August 18 Above the 50 DMA ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...​

​​Yesterday I wrote: ​​​​We are still into that downward channel that started
​back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was
​almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).

China continue to be a concern: China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern
In fact, the real concern to me is that it bring turmoil in Emerging Foreign Currencies - see CEW ETF as proxy.

​​​​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2078 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.

Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.2 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
​​​

​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.
Next targets are 2106.5 and 2112.5

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2078 MAX 2067.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2078 and next big resistance is the resistance of thr wedge at 2106.5

​​Then today I expect a range from 2085 to 2104.


Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: ​​​​NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?


The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 17, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
​2) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​3) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​4) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​5) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​6) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​7) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Five factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?

​​
​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2088 on a daily close.

We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.

​​We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2088 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2078 MAX 2067.5 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2085 and 2104.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.

​​​​August 17 Still into the Channel ?
​You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
​​Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.

​​​​​​​​​​NEW PAGES LINKS starting August 18

​​We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one...​ Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...​

​​Last Friday I wrote: ​​​​We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages )
​and both were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..

​​We are still into that downward channel that started back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).

​​I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2076.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trenldine for support and top red trendline as resistance.

​​Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to ​2097.5 MAX 2099.

​​​​​​​​​Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.

​​Next big support is the wedge at 2076.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the channel at 2095

​​Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2095.

The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show: ​
​SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...

​​​​​​But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...


​Some Technical Comments:​

1) On August 14, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
​​​​​​​​2) ​On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
​​3) On July 29, ​we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
​4) On July 29, ​we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
​​​​​​​5) ​On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
​​​​​​​6) ​On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1


​​​​​​​​​NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
​​E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
​E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
​​

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Four factors bring my attention:

1) Seasonalities: 5 Years​ : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : ​ SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
​​2) A Bleak Outlook: ​SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?

​​​​Back to the technical levels now.
​ Disclaimer

​We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2084.5 on a daily close.

We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.

​​​​​​​​​​​​We need to stay above 2075 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.

Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to ​2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.

Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.​​

Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
​​
​​​​​​The market should trade today between ​​2080 and 2095.
​Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
February X - Executive Summary - NFP Day ?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​We did close below the 100.00 level on February 2, triggering the Bear Case.

​​​​Only a daily close above 100.00 will give us a Bullish Impulse to ​
​100.88 MAX 100.00 for now...

Technical Challenge:
​Stay below  100.00 - High from February 3 2016