APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior til Q2 ER ?
April 5 ( From TradingView )
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April 5: Apple Shares Volatility Behavior til Q2 ER ?
So next few weeks, we have 3 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) April 10: The iWatch Trial + Pre-Orders
To try on an Apple Watch, you’ll need to sign up for a 15-minute session at an Apple
store. The first appointments will be this Friday, April 10, and represent new terrain
for both the tech world and the jewelry industry
2) April 24: The iWatch Start Selling
The Apple Watch, will go on sale on April 24 BUT the launch is also a new use of the Apple stores, which already produce more revenue per square foot than Tiffany & Co
3) April 27: Q2 ER
So on April 27, Apple will report its Q2 ER ( Earnings Release ) and probably its first week end sales for its iWacth.
We will start with the charts of Volatility of Apple Shares vs SP500.
So we can see on the Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility vs VIX from CBOE that on the past 5 years, Volatitlity rose til April 17 on Average and then started to decline.
Peak Volatility (in %) in April for Apple Shares in pre - ER and peak VIX (in%):
2011: 37.43 on April 18 19.07 so gives us Peak Relative Volatility at: 1.96
2012: 51.03 on April 16 20.39 2.50
2013: 47.49 on April 18 18.20 2.61
2014: 30.05 on April 14 18.22 1.65
This year, we will have the speculation and expectations on the iWatch on top of that...
Volatility closed on April 2 at 30.88, above it s 200 DMA at 27.58. and Relative Volatility closed at 2.10% last Thursday, level above its 200 DMA at 1.87%.
So it is probable that we reach past peak RV at 2.61 taking into account Q2 ER and the iWatch.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is starting to be on the expensive side BUT considering those factors that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares even higher...
So this week, I will follow the usual weekly straddle ( maturing April 10 ) plus the post Q2 ER set for April 27;
so straddle on May 1.
The Weekly April 10 125 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last on April 2 at $2.91 and
The average difference in price in term of High and Low for Apple shares for the past week is $1.94
I will follow that straddle this week...
And the post Q2 ER straddle:
The May 1 125 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last on April 2 at $9.22 and
What to take in account:
1) Non- Farm Parrolls last Friday at 126k was on the low side of expectations
2) SP500 futures are still within a downward trading channel and below its 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )
3) Apple Shares are below its 20 DMA at $125.38
So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $124.06. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $120 handle pretty quick.
On the other side, having a daily close above the 20 DMA at $125.38 and especially above the previos day peak at $126.49 will give plenty of ammunition to Bulls.
So expect some quite Volatility for the next few trading weeks.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Daily Chart - Seasonalities -
Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE
- Average of the past 5 years - April 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Volatility of Apple Shares in % vs VIX from CBOE