APPLE Technicals Behavior - Relatively Speaking ?
Februay 1 ( From TradingView )
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February 1: Relatively Speaking ?
Most of us when investing are looking to play in only one side of the market.
90% of the time its a long position...
What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, SP500 Futures already broke the 20 and 50 DMA
( Day Moving Average ), a bad sign technically speaking...
IF ever we break the 200 DMA, the party is over for Bulls...
I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500
: see note at the bottom.
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares.
So it is time indeed to think in a relatively way - I mean Long Apple Shares and Short the SP500 Index.
I will start with a chart.....
Apple Shares Macro Technicals
That chart above shows that on average from the past 5 years, that Apple Shares have outperformed from the beginning of February til mid-February the Mighty SP500 by 4.7% in performance ( capital excluding dividends ).
IF history itselt, then we should expect it to repeat this year especially with the strong Q1 financial results, the correction at month end last Friday.
Here's a fun historic fact about the SPX . According to the National Bureau of Economic Research :
" This year is only the 8th since 1929 to post a January loss after 3 or more consecutive up years,All prior 7 closed down for the year, (avg -14.8%), and all 7 were followed by a recession on average 7 months later. The prior years: 1953, 1957, 1973, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2008."
Hmmm , interesting.
Algokid - TradingView
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares compare to the SP500 - Average of the past 5 years - February 1st pegged at 100