TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior -  Relatively Speaking ?   
 Februay 1 ( From TradingView )
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February 1: Relatively Speaking ?

Most of us when investing are looking to play in only one side of the market.
90% of the time its a long position...

What the Apple Bulls forgot is how precarious the SP500 is these days.
On January 27, SP500 Futures already broke the 20 and 50 DMA
​( Day Moving Average ), a bad sign technically speaking...

IF ever we break the 200 DMA, the party is over for Bulls...​​

I expect a painful grind a 2 headwind factors will work against Apple Shares:
1) Precarity of the trend on SP500 : see note at the bottom.
2) The planet earth is already long Apple Shares.

So it is time indeed to think in a relatively way - I mean Long Apple Shares and Short the SP500 Index. ​​​

I will start with a chart.....



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Apple Shares Macro Technicals


That chart above shows that on average from the past 5 years, that Apple Shares have outperformed from the beginning of February til mid-February the Mighty SP500 by 4.7% in performance ( capital excluding dividends ).

IF history itselt, then we should expect ​​it to repeat this year especially with the strong Q1 financial results, the correction at month end last Friday.



Here's a fun historic fact about the SPX . According to the National Bureau of Economic Research :

" This year is only the 8th since 1929 to post a January loss after 3 or more consecutive up years,All prior 7 closed down for the year, (avg -14.8%), and all 7 were followed by a recession on average 7 months later. The prior years: 1953, 1957, 1973, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2008."

Hmmm , interesting.


Algokid - TradingView


END.

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April 2013
July 2013
October 2013
January 2014
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares compare to the SP500  - Average of the past 5 years  - February 1st pegged at 100​