TRADING APPLE

​
 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior -  Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ? 
 Februay 8 ( From TradingView )
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Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE compare to the SP500 VIX Index - Average of the past 5 years - February 1st pegged at 100 ​ 


February 8: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?


As expected, Apple Shares Volatility After Q1 ER (Earnings Release) collapse.


​​Lowest Closing Relative Volatility on Average of the past 3 years have been 
​5 Trading Days ​after to January Event:​
So in our case is ​February 3rd . Average
​return from ​T-4 to T+5 was -39.9%. This year it was reached on January 30 at 
​the 1.51 level which was a drop of 38.4% from January 27 close..​


​​Lowest Volatility ( CBOE Apple VIX ) on Average of the past 3 years have been

​5 Trading Days ​after to January Event:​ So in our case is ​February 3rd . This year it was reached on February 5 at
​the 27.36% level which was a drop of 35.2% from January 27 close..

It now reached a point  which usually on the Seasonals we turn back in a grind for higher Volatility Pattern til Mid-February.

I will start with two charts..... The first one is Relative Volatility ( which is CBOE Apple VIX over CBOE SP500 VIX Index ) and the bottom one is only CBOE Apple VIX .



Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE

​ - Average of the past 5 years - February 1st pegged at 100 



What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ): 

1) From February 6​​
til February 17, Relative Volatility rise 29.3% on average of the past 5 years.
We did have a close on RV at 1.66 on February 6, then a rough level would be to reach 2.14 til mid-February.


​​​​2) From February 6​​ til February 17,  Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE rise 18.2% on average of the past 3 years.
We did have a close on AAPL VIX at 28.7% on February 6, then a rough level would be to reach 33.9%​ til mid-February.​

​
​​What I am telling you is that we should not be short Relative Volatility or AAPL VIX since seasonalities are into an upward move​ : I am talking about long term options here, not the weeklys were time decay and Apple Shares Price is more important than Volatility​ impact.

This year, the shift may be bigger than usual as rumors about the Apple Watch and SP500 Index behavior facing huge geo political uncertainties should keep a bid on the VIXes.​​ Also, Apple Shares are near an all time high  that should bring more Volatility as the Battle of the Wedge is in full throttle...

I will keep you up to date with specific technical levels on the Daily, as usual...​​