APPLE Technicals Behavior
January 31 ( From TradingView )
January 31: Big Picture: My Dear Falling Wedge ?
In these uncertain times, it is interesting to look at the Big Picture and not only on a short term basis
as most of us are getting used to...
Let s start with the chart of Apple Shares on a Monthly Basis as shown below.
We are still into a downward channel that started back since July 2015 with $78.74 as support and $116.89 as resistance.
Observe also that we broke in December 2015 a Major Support Trendline that started back since June 2013...
( See chart below, Yellow Trendline )
Also I have to mention that the price action lately is more significant to me compare to the flash crash in August 2015 because this time, the market was more orderly and had time to trade at each price without a huge liquidity trap as it was in August 2015.
RV closed on January 29 at 1.36, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.81 and pure Volatility closed at 27.44% last Friday, level below its 200 DMA at 31.0%.
This is the lowest Volatility weekly level since December 24 2015... Not surprising after the release of Earnings last week...
What I am telling you is that Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the factors above that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month but Pure Volatility level quite average...
The Weekly February 15 97 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.67 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Daily Levels - AAPL
PVT ( Price Volume Trend - Blue Line )
APPLE Technicals - AAPL
My Falling Wedge
SInce December 29 1015, Apple Shares started to trade within a Large Falling Wedge. ( See chart below - Top Panel - Thick Red Trendline )
Apple Shares levels for that Falling Wedge for February 1 is $90.35 as support and $ 99.21 as resistance.
( See Chart Below - Top Panel - Thick Red Trendlines ).
That is the main reason I think we are into ONLY a dead cat bounce wave. ONLY breaking that resistance trendline from that falling wedge will bring a more sustained rally...
Interesting to note that PVT ( Price Volume Trend ) is already well below the August 24 2015 and near a Major Resistance Trendline. ( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Blue line for PVT and Amber Trendline for resistance )
That underperformance of AAPL since December 11 2015 is quite obvious looking at the chart below which is the Ratio of Apple Shares over the mighty SP500 Index. Observe that we are well below the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on a Relative Performance basis and in a downward channel that started back since July 20 2015. ( Green Line - Chart Below )
We broke on December 11 2015 a huge wedge pattern on a Relative Basis that started back on July 20 2015.
( Red Trendline - Chart Below )
We are at crossroads on a Relative Basis ( AAPL vs SP500 ) as we tested last week near the the Major Support Trendline and was rejected. ( Bottom Blue Trendline - Ellipse Chart Below )
It is crucial that we stay above that Support Trendline level for technical strenght for Apple Shares...
RATIO AAPL Stock over SPX ( Candles )
200 DMA ( Green Line )
The Big Picture for Apple Shares.
For the weekly, we are now within an uptrend channel that started on the week of January 11 2016 with $92.57 as support and $102.13 as resistance. See chart below. Since we broke on a weekly basis (January 18 2016 week) the $98.97 resistance trendline from a downward channel that started on the December 7 2015 week, Apple Shares turned to a Consolidation stance.
Also take note that the Weekly Support Trendline that started back on August 25 week 2014 is at $102.90 and was broken on the January 4 2016 week and then becomes resistance...
We need to get above on a weekly basis the $102.90 level ( which is the previous weekly break out back on the October 20 2014 week ) to change that Macro Bear Behavior trend. ( See chart below - Bottom Blue Trendline )
APPLE Technicals - AAPL