TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - July Seasonals  ? 
 July 1 ( From TradingView )


July 1: July Seasonals: Good Wave   ?

​​The Month of July is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole Market
Trend is in the Grind Trade Pattern  to finally close above the beginning of the month
​for the Mighty SP500 ​Index. SO Good Wave Pattern it is for the month of July.

See the chart below. This Weekly Research replace the July 5 edition...

​​​​​RV closed on June 30 at ​​1.37, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.82  and pure Volatility​ closed at 24.9% on June 30, level well below its 200 DMA at 27.6%.  Volatility trend til Earnings Release is higher.

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in July and not talking about Greece risks...

You can see a Chart of​​ Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE HERE.


​The Weekly July 10 126 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on June 30 at $3.14 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


So in summary, I think the market is buidling too little expectations. going into ER.

​​
​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - July 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
July 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
 July 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

For Apple, this is even more Bullish as shown byt the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on July 1 til July 1 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
FinancialIceberg.Com
So in summary, we comes from the month of April which historically speaking we had some good performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of May which we had on average over the past 5 years mixed performance... June is quite bad though... July is very good indeed...


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                         April         May​​​         June          July

SP500                              +1.2%     -2.3%         -0.6%        +1.9%

AAPL​​​​                               +3.8%     +1.1%         -2.7%        +8.0%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​           +2.6%     +3.4%         -2.1%        +6.1%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of June 2015, we had -3.7% and -1.1% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, below of the average performance of the past 5 years as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of July is far better than April or May for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is a positive for the month of July as shown by the table above.

At least til the new Earning Release on July 21, Seasonals should behave.