TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - Month End July Seasonals  ? 
 July 26 ( From TradingView )


July 26: Month End July Seasonals: 2012 Case   ?

​​The Month of July is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole Market
Trend is in the Grind Trade Pattern  to finally close above the beginning of the month
​for the Mighty SP500 ​Index. But the last week of July is in correction mode for SP500.

See the chart below.

So in 2012, AAPL outperformed on the last 3 business days on a Relative basis vs the Mighty SP500 Index.
I put a lot of emphasis on that as the SP500 is in correction mode since July ​21...


It is not obvious as we have ONLY one case (2012) to compare with 2015 on ER reaction: SO BE THE JUDGE...
​​​

​​​​​​​RV closed on July 24 at ​​1.71, slightly below it s 200 DMA at 1.83  and pure Volatility​ closed at 23.5% on July 24, level well below its 200 DMA at 27.7%.  Volatility trend til Month End is higher.

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality at the End of July and SP500 thta broke the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average )...

You can see a Chart of​​ Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE HERE.


​The Weekly July 31 125 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on July 24 at $2.83 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


So in summary, I think we can see AAPL shares outperforming in the last 3 business days IF history repeat itself for sure...

​​
​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - July 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
July 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
 July 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

For Apple, this is even more Bullish as shown byt the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on July 1 til July 10 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
The last week of July is more of a Grinding pattern...​
FinancialIceberg.Com
So in summary, we comes from the month of April which historically speaking we had some good performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of May which we had on average over the past 5 years mixed performance... June is quite bad though... July is very good indeed...


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                         April         May​​​         June          July        July 2015 (til the 24th )

SP500                              +1.2%     -2.3%         -0.6%        +1.9%         +0.80%

AAPL​​​​                               +3.8%     +1.1%         -2.7%        +8.0%         -0.74%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​           +2.6%     +3.4%         -2.1%        +6.1%          -1.54%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of June 2015, we had -3.7% and -1.1% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, below of the average performance of the past 5 years as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of July is far better than April or May for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is a positive for the month of July as shown by the table above.

At least til the new Earning Release on July 21, Seasonals should behave.

What happened this year was too much expectations built into the ER AAPL underperformed tremendoulsy since then.​​ We have ONLY 2012 as similar to the ER event as in 2015... So let s have a look at the Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares on each of the past 5 years but with a focus on 2012.
( See chart below 2012, Green Dots - Ellipse )​

Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - July 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Financialiceberg.Com