APPLE Technicals Behavior - Big Picture: Rising Wedge and 50 DMA ?
June 07 ( From TradingView )
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June 07: Big Picture: Rising Wedge and 50 DMA
This week will be critical on 3 main technical factors:
1) The Month of June is also very special in terms of Seasonalities ( See Last Week Research ) as the
Trend is towards lower prices for the Mighty SP500 Index but mainly Apple Shares.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on June 3rd til June 15 according to the past 5 years, so after the WWDC.
2) WWDC often bring deception for Apple Shares: Why AAPL falls no matter what Apple does at WWDC
So unless a surprise new product annoncement on WWDC ( Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) 2015 takes places June 8-12 ), expectations for performance on Apple Shares are the weakest of the past 3 months, based on the average of the past 5 years...
3) World Financial Volatility soon seen in US Markets ? A Volatility Divergence for SP500 ? The Sum of All Fears ?
I mentioned that a few times in my Private Chat Room, All that to say that again I think we will see some turbulence coming from the US Dollar. Already other asset classes started to experience some stronger Volatility...
The Big Picture for Apple Shares.
Last week, we broke a weekly support trendline on Apple Shares then at $129.27 from an uptrend channel - see chart below - Ellipse. We are back on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel for the support at $127.57 support and on a downtrend channel for the resistance at $132.09. SO IF we break that support from the mian channel that started back in November 2014 at $ 127.57, it is a very bad technical sign for me indeed...
RV closed on June 5 at 1.56, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.87. and pure Volatility closed at 22.18% last Friday, level well below its 200 DMA at 27.9%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is starting to be on the cheap side considering the 3 factors above that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to Bottom between the 12 to 14 of June and rise til the 21:
It is important to know for long term options behavior....
APPLE Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities - AAPL
The Weekly June12 128 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.83 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $127.91. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $126 handle pretty quick and then $124.38
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
APPLE Technicals - Daily Levels - AAPL
Volume 7 DMA
APPLE Technicals - AAPL
Rising Wedge and 50 DMA on Apple Shares
Apple Shares are within a Rising Wedge that started on February 24 2015 with $124.38 support and $135.12 as resistance.
( see Red Trendlines - Chart Below ).
Also, we have a resistance trendline that started on April 28 with $132.14 as level ( see Grey Trendline - Chart Below ).
We already broke on June 5 the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line - Chart Below ) then at $129.34.
So the next big battle is the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line - Chart Below - Ellipse ) for Monday at $127.91.
IF broken, then I think we will test the support trendline from the rising wedge as shown by the Chart Below...