APPLE Technicals Behavior - Volatility Seasonals ?
June 14 ( From TradingView )
June 14: Volatility Seasonals: Increased Volatility Ahead ?
The Month of June is also very special in terms of Seasonalities for Volatility
as the whole Market is quite choppy as we are getting intot the summer time.
SO Roller Coaster it is for the month of June for SP500 Index VIX Index.
See the chart below.
So in summary, I think the market is too complacent in term of Volatility.
Already the price action of Apple Shares of last week tell me that Volatility is on the cheap side.
So in that market scenario, we cant be short Options Premium especially for Long Term Options Play.
Take advantage of that low Volatility to hedge or to play Apple Shares according to your long term view...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Daily Chart- Seasonalities- Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE
- Average of the past 5 years
June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 IndexVolatility Index VIX from CBOE -
Average of the past 5 years
- June 1st pegged at 100
.( See chart below )
For Apple, this is completely another story as shown byt the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Volatility Apple Shares that historically start on June 12 til June 20 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
Relative Volatility VIX between AAPL Stock and SP500 Index ( Daily Candle Chart )
RV closed on June 12 at 1.56, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.86. and pure Volatility closed at 21.5% last Friday, level well below its 200 DMA at 27.0% as shown by the 2 charts below.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in June. SO Higher Volatility Trend means it is becoming risky to be short Volatility Premiums on options.
The Weekly June 19 127 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.55 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Daily Chart - CBOE Apple VIX