APPLE Technicals Behavior - Big Picture: Update on the Wedge Support Trendline ?
June 28 ( From TradingView )
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June 28: Big Picture: Update on the Wedge Support Trendline
On May 31 I mentioned in my Weekly Research ( June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ? )
that the month of June is quite rough on AAPL. I wrote then:
So my message here is that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of June is far worst than April or May for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is a negative for the month of June.
As of June 26, for the month of June, AAPL Shares are down -2.71% and the SP500 Index is up -0.28%, in line with Monthly expectations...
The Big Picture for Apple Shares.
On May 8 week, we broke on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel support then at $127.57 support. SO by breaking that support from the main channel that started back in November 2014 at $ 127.57, it was a very bad technical sign for me indeed...
( See chart below - Ellipse )
RV closed on June 26 at 1.61, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.83 and pure Volatility closed at 22.29% last Friday, level well below its 200 DMA at 27.6%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is still on the cheap side considering the factors above that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
And addind Grexit fears will only add to it...
Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to Bottom around the 23rd of June and rise til the 30:
It is important to know for long term options behavior....
APPLE Volatility Technicals - Daily Levels and Seasonalities - AAPL
And quite interesting also to note that Relative Volatility is rising in July til the 19 on average of the past 5 years because of the Earnings release on Apple. ( see chart below ) So for long term options players, it is a must know...
The Weekly July 2 127 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.20 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
APPLE Technicals - Daily Levels - AAPL
Volume 7 DMA
APPLE Technicals - AAPL
Rising Wedge and 50 DMA on Apple Shares
On June 12, Apple Shares closed below the 50 DMA then at $128.19, a bad omen technically speaking...
Apple Shares are within a Rising Wedge that started on February 24 2015 with $124.99 support and $135.42 as resistance.
( see Blue Trendlines - Chart Below ).
This is the last defense line for Bulls.
Breaking that Major Support will bring a Nasty Bear Move: $118.31 to $120.25 Zone...
We had that iCahn spike on June 24 that bring a new resistance trendline now at $129.34.
We failed twice last week to close above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) (June 24 and 25 ) even with iCahn.
Grexit will put mor uncertainty into it...
For me, we need to break the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line - Chart Below ) now at $128.44 but mainly the Resistance from that downward channel that started back on May 26 now at $129.34 to turn really Bullish on Apple Shares.
( Chart Below - Top Red Trednline )
So the battle this week will be between that Support Trendline from that Rising Wedge at $ 124.99 for now and the Resistance level from that downward Channel now at $129.34. When broken, expect an Impulse from the market...
That underperformance of AAPL in June is quite obvious looking at the chart below which is the Ratio of Apple Shares over the mighty SP500 Index- Blue Line. Observe that we are near the support trendline from that channel of Relative Performance...
It is crucial that we hold above the support level...
RATIO AAPL Stock over SPX ( Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( Candles )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE compare to the SP500 VIX Index - Average of the past 5 years - July 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )