APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior til Month End ?
March 15 ( From TradingView )
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RV closed on March 13 at 1.73, below it s 200 DMA at 1.81.
and pure Volatility closed at 27.7% last Friday, level slightly above its 200 DMA at 27.2%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is fairly priced ( not cheap but fairly priced ) considering the 4 factors above that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
The Weekly March 20 124 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.56 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
March 15: Apple Shares Volatility Behavior til Month End ?
So til Month End, we have 4 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) Apple into the Dow Jones Industrial
Apple Inc. (NASD:AAPL) will replace AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) after the close of trading on Wednesday, March 18. The change will
be effective with the opening of trading on Thursday, March 19.
For more details, see last week Research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - DOW Index Impact ?
2) SP500 Futures is near a Major Support Trendline
A Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 now at 2036 need to hold, unless gap down towards the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1989. See third chart below.
3) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at -0.85% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at -2.43%.
4) Japanese Banks End of the Year
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year beginning 2 or 3 weeks earlier are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007... See 4rth chart below.
And also take a look at the Big Picture from the US Dollar Index and soem Financial Events that occured each time we had a huge run up. See 5th chart below.
We will start with the charts of Relative Volatility of Apple Shares vs SP500.
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Relative Volatility vs VIX from CBOE
- Average of the past 5 years - March 1st pegged at 100
Daily Chart - Relative Volatility of Apple Shares in % vs VIX from CBOE
SP500 Futures - Daily Chart
USD JPY Cross Currency - Daily Chart