TRADING APPLE
TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior on Fridays ?
March 22 ( From TradingView )
March 22 ( From TradingView )
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March 22: Apple Shares Behavior on Fridays ?
On the Chat Room, I mentioned many times the Weekly Options Magnet on Fridays.
Apple Shares have been up quite a lot since the beginning of the year and that
magnet on Apple Shares Prices was expected on the downside...
So I decide to finally post real numbers on that to see IF we can conclude
a Trend Behavior ( as long as Apple Shares main Trend does not change ).
Let s start with a Table on Apple Shares Prices on Fridays since the beginning of the Year.
( We have 11 Fridays since the beginning of the Year )
On the Chat Room, I mentioned many times the Weekly Options Magnet on Fridays.
Apple Shares have been up quite a lot since the beginning of the year and that
magnet on Apple Shares Prices was expected on the downside...
So I decide to finally post real numbers on that to see IF we can conclude
a Trend Behavior ( as long as Apple Shares main Trend does not change ).
Let s start with a Table on Apple Shares Prices on Fridays since the beginning of the Year.
( We have 11 Fridays since the beginning of the Year )
Apple Shares Prices on Fridays
since the beginning of the Year 2015
since the beginning of the Year 2015
So I did analyze many choices on 11 total Fridays since the beginning of the year:
1) Fridays Open Price compare to Previous Day Close on Thursdays ( 7 Days Up and 4 Days Down )
2) Fridays Day Close compare to Previous Day Close on Thursdays ( 5 Days Up and 6 Days Down )
3) Fridays Day Close compare to Fridays Opening ( 1 Days Up and 10 Days Down )
4) Fridays Day High compare to Fridays Opening
5) Fridays Opening compare to Fridays Lows ( 0 Days Up and 11 Days Down )
What is striking is that we had on 11 Fridays since the beginning of the year and we had 10 of them with a Day Closing Price below the Opening Price ( with average loss of $1.09 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Also, we had 11 of them with a Day Lowest Price below the Opening Price ( with average loss of $1.75 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Well... I thought we had Weekly Options Magnet but those staistics are quite impressive...
So we can expect that behavior to continue as long as Apple Shares stay into an uptrend.
Starting to range trade will lessen that behavior and IF ever we reverse to a bear trend, we can have an inverse reaction on Fridays ( Bullish ).
But what are the expectations for the Day after Tomorrow ( Monday March 23 rd ): Check the Table below...
1) Fridays Open Price compare to Previous Day Close on Thursdays ( 7 Days Up and 4 Days Down )
2) Fridays Day Close compare to Previous Day Close on Thursdays ( 5 Days Up and 6 Days Down )
3) Fridays Day Close compare to Fridays Opening ( 1 Days Up and 10 Days Down )
4) Fridays Day High compare to Fridays Opening
5) Fridays Opening compare to Fridays Lows ( 0 Days Up and 11 Days Down )
What is striking is that we had on 11 Fridays since the beginning of the year and we had 10 of them with a Day Closing Price below the Opening Price ( with average loss of $1.09 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Also, we had 11 of them with a Day Lowest Price below the Opening Price ( with average loss of $1.75 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Well... I thought we had Weekly Options Magnet but those staistics are quite impressive...
So we can expect that behavior to continue as long as Apple Shares stay into an uptrend.
Starting to range trade will lessen that behavior and IF ever we reverse to a bear trend, we can have an inverse reaction on Fridays ( Bullish ).
But what are the expectations for the Day after Tomorrow ( Monday March 23 rd ): Check the Table below...
Apple Shares Prices Expectations on Mondays
since the beginning of the Year 2015
since the beginning of the Year 2015
So I did analyze many choices on 10 total Mondays Following Fridays Weekly Options Magnet since the beginning of the year:
1) Mondays Open Price compare to Previous Day Close on Fridays ( 9 Days Up and 1 Days Down )
2) Mondays Close compare to Previous Day Close on Fridays ( 9 Days Up and 1 Days Down )
3) Monday Close compare to Mondays Opening ( 6 Days Up and 4 Days Down )
What is striking is that we had on 10 Fridays since the beginning of the year and we had 9 of them with a Monday Opening Price above the Closing Price Friday ( with average gain of $0.83 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Also, we had 10 of them with a Monday Closing Day Price above the Closing Price on Fridays ( with average gain of $1.32 ) as shown in the Table Above.
IF history repeat itself, we can expect on average that the Dead Cat Bounce Following Fridays Weekly Options Magnet - taking the closing price last Friday at $125.90:
1) Opening Price Monday should be $0.83 above Fridays Closing Price, so $126.73
2) Closing Price Monday should be $1.32 above Fridays Closing Price, so $127.22
As a reminder, the 20 DMA on Apple is now at $127.43, staying below will be a Technical negative for Apple Shares...
RV closed on March 20 at 1.91, above it s 200 DMA at 1.86. and pure Volatility closed at 24.85% last Friday, level slightly below its 200 DMA at 27.2%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is fairly priced ( not cheap but fairly priced ) considering the 2 factors below that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.05 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
So til Month End, we have 2 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at +0.17% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.78%.
2) Japanese Banks End of the Year
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year on the last week of March are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007... See 4rth chart below.
Interesting Read: Apple Flash Crash: The Farce That Is The "Market" In One Chart
1) Mondays Open Price compare to Previous Day Close on Fridays ( 9 Days Up and 1 Days Down )
2) Mondays Close compare to Previous Day Close on Fridays ( 9 Days Up and 1 Days Down )
3) Monday Close compare to Mondays Opening ( 6 Days Up and 4 Days Down )
What is striking is that we had on 10 Fridays since the beginning of the year and we had 9 of them with a Monday Opening Price above the Closing Price Friday ( with average gain of $0.83 ) as shown in the Table Above.
Also, we had 10 of them with a Monday Closing Day Price above the Closing Price on Fridays ( with average gain of $1.32 ) as shown in the Table Above.
IF history repeat itself, we can expect on average that the Dead Cat Bounce Following Fridays Weekly Options Magnet - taking the closing price last Friday at $125.90:
1) Opening Price Monday should be $0.83 above Fridays Closing Price, so $126.73
2) Closing Price Monday should be $1.32 above Fridays Closing Price, so $127.22
As a reminder, the 20 DMA on Apple is now at $127.43, staying below will be a Technical negative for Apple Shares...
RV closed on March 20 at 1.91, above it s 200 DMA at 1.86. and pure Volatility closed at 24.85% last Friday, level slightly below its 200 DMA at 27.2%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is fairly priced ( not cheap but fairly priced ) considering the 2 factors below that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
The Weekly March 27 126 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.05 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
So til Month End, we have 2 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at +0.17% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.78%.
2) Japanese Banks End of the Year
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year on the last week of March are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007... See 4rth chart below.
Interesting Read: Apple Flash Crash: The Farce That Is The "Market" In One Chart