APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri  ? 
 March 29 ( From TradingView )
If you would like to receive our free daily markets updates, please Sign-up

March 29: Pot Pourri : The Big Picture Revisited  ?

We started a Consolidation Process since the wekk of February 23rd.

I decided to take a look at the Big Picture in terms of Price Levels taking as proxy
Fibonacci Levels Extension based on a weekly chart.​​​
​How to Calculate Fibonacci Extensions

So taking the previous high peak level reached on the week of September 17 2012 at $100.72 and the following bottom reached on the week of April 15 2013 at $55.01, I found those Fibonacci Extension Levels:

Fibonacci Extension % Price

​​​23.6 $111.55 ​​​
38.2 $118.23
50.0 $123.63
61.8 $129.03
76.4 $135.71
100 $146.52​​​​​

See also the chart below.
RV closed on March 27 at ​​2.13, above it s 200 DMA at 1.86. and pure Volatility​ closed at 32.17% last Friday, level above its 200 DMA at 27.4%.

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is starting to be on the expensive side considering the 3 factors below that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month... And a short week...

​The Weekly April 2 123 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.38 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


​​​​So til Month End, we have 3 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:

1) Seasonalities for Apple Shares in Price ( See also At the bottom of my text - April Seasonalities chart )
The past performance in terms of seasonalities of the past 5 years have been down but the fact that the Japanese Experiment for end of the year have been earlier in 2015, I think that it will different this year.​

​​2) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing​​
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at ​-2.07% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.60%. So favor stocks over bonds on March 31.

3) Japanese Banks End of the Year​​​ almost over
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year on the last week of March are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007... 

​​So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $122.67. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $120 handle pretty quick.

​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
APPLE Technicals - Weekly Levels - AAPL
The last previous weekly peak in price for Apple Shares was on November 24 at $119.75, and the 50% Fibonacci level is at $119.10 and the 50 DMA at $122.67. That is the main weekly support zone.

But what strikes me the most is the weekly downward channel that started back on March 2 with, for this week $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance ( Blue Line ). I Think that it will be our playground.
​See chart below.​​

​​We can have another week of Consolidation within that range and start to grind up getting near next Quarterly Financial Results expected on April 21.
APPLE Technicals - Weekly Levels - AAPL
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
April 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )