TRADING APPLE
TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - Pot Pourri ?
March 29 ( From TradingView )
March 29 ( From TradingView )
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March 29: Pot Pourri : The Big Picture Revisited ?
We started a Consolidation Process since the wekk of February 23rd.
I decided to take a look at the Big Picture in terms of Price Levels taking as proxy
Fibonacci Levels Extension based on a weekly chart.
How to Calculate Fibonacci Extensions
So taking the previous high peak level reached on the week of September 17 2012 at $100.72 and the following bottom reached on the week of April 15 2013 at $55.01, I found those Fibonacci Extension Levels:
Fibonacci Extension % Price
23.6 $111.55
38.2 $118.23
50.0 $123.63
61.8 $129.03
76.4 $135.71
100 $146.52
See also the chart below.
We started a Consolidation Process since the wekk of February 23rd.
I decided to take a look at the Big Picture in terms of Price Levels taking as proxy
Fibonacci Levels Extension based on a weekly chart.
How to Calculate Fibonacci Extensions
So taking the previous high peak level reached on the week of September 17 2012 at $100.72 and the following bottom reached on the week of April 15 2013 at $55.01, I found those Fibonacci Extension Levels:
Fibonacci Extension % Price
23.6 $111.55
38.2 $118.23
50.0 $123.63
61.8 $129.03
76.4 $135.71
100 $146.52
See also the chart below.
RV closed on March 27 at 2.13, above it s 200 DMA at 1.86. and pure Volatility closed at 32.17% last Friday, level above its 200 DMA at 27.4%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is starting to be on the expensive side considering the 3 factors below that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month... And a short week...
The Weekly April 2 123 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.38 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
So til Month End, we have 3 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) Seasonalities for Apple Shares in Price ( See also At the bottom of my text - April Seasonalities chart )
The past performance in terms of seasonalities of the past 5 years have been down but the fact that the Japanese Experiment for end of the year have been earlier in 2015, I think that it will different this year.
2) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at -2.07% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.60%. So favor stocks over bonds on March 31.
3) Japanese Banks End of the Year almost over
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year on the last week of March are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007...
So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $122.67. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $120 handle pretty quick.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is starting to be on the expensive side considering the 3 factors below that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month... And a short week...
The Weekly April 2 123 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.38 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
So til Month End, we have 3 special events that will occur and can bring some
higher volatility to Apple Shares:
1) Seasonalities for Apple Shares in Price ( See also At the bottom of my text - April Seasonalities chart )
The past performance in terms of seasonalities of the past 5 years have been down but the fact that the Japanese Experiment for end of the year have been earlier in 2015, I think that it will different this year.
2) Month End Asset Mix Rebalancing
Already at mid month, we have SP500 index performance ( from the end of February ) at -2.07% and the
IEF ETF ( iShares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund ) at +0.60%. So favor stocks over bonds on March 31.
3) Japanese Banks End of the Year almost over
The Japanese end of the year for most of the Japanese Financial Institutions ( Fiscal Year ) are March 31. And each year on the last week of March are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets. And las time the Yen was at that level for year end was back in 2007...
So all that to say that for me, it is crucial that we stay on a daily closing above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at $122.67. Failing to do so could bring more technicians to sell on that factor and reach the $120 handle pretty quick.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
APPLE Technicals - Weekly Levels - AAPL
Candles
Candles
The last previous weekly peak in price for Apple Shares was on November 24 at $119.75, and the 50% Fibonacci level is at $119.10 and the 50 DMA at $122.67. That is the main weekly support zone.
But what strikes me the most is the weekly downward channel that started back on March 2 with, for this week $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance ( Blue Line ). I Think that it will be our playground.
See chart below.
We can have another week of Consolidation within that range and start to grind up getting near next Quarterly Financial Results expected on April 21.
But what strikes me the most is the weekly downward channel that started back on March 2 with, for this week $120.10 as support and $128.27 as resistance ( Blue Line ). I Think that it will be our playground.
See chart below.
We can have another week of Consolidation within that range and start to grind up getting near next Quarterly Financial Results expected on April 21.
APPLE Technicals - Weekly Levels - AAPL
Candles
Candles
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
April 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
April 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
