TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - May Seasonals Revisited ? 
 May 25 ( From TradingView )


May 25: May Seasonals Revisited  ?

​​The Month of May is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole Market
Trend is towards lower prices for the Mighty SP500 Index.​​



See the chart below.

Remember that On May 21​, Apple Shares closed Above the Resistance Trendline then at $131.12.
( Midle Red Trendline on the chart above ).​ It then becomes Support at $131.21 for May 26.

The next huge Resistance Trendline is at ​​$134.94 for May 26, the Ultimate target for Bulls this week. 
( Top Red Trendline on the chart above ).​

Having a daily close below the Support Trendline at $131.21 will be seen as weak technicals for me...


​​

​​​​​RV closed on May 22 at ​​1.61, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.89. and pure Volatility​ closed at 19.5% last Friday, level well below its 200 DMA at 28.8% and the cheapest since May 2014.

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in May and asset class rebalancing that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares for the month...

​The Weekly May 29 132 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.23 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


So in summary, I think the market is a little in advance of itself ( especially on May 21 and 22 with illiquid markets ) and getting near month end and I expect some asset rebalancing with some pressure on equities.​​

​​
​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - May 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
May 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
May 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

So we are getting into an environment which is characterized by a toppish and consolidation market. Apple will not be excluded from that Market Trend as shown byt the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start at mid-month as shown by the chart below.
FinancialIceberg.Com
So in summary, we comes from the month of April which historically speaking we had some good performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of May which we had on average over the past 5 years mixed performance...


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                         April         May​​​        May 2015 (til May 22)

SP500                              +1.2%     -2.3%                 +1.9%

AAPL​​​​                               +3.8%     +1.1%                 +6.3%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​           +2.6%     +3.4%                 +4.4%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of April 2015, we had +3.6% and +1.9% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, quite close of the average performance of the past 5 years as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of May is better than April for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is less for the month of May as shown by the table above.

In fact, we had til May 22 in 2015 an outperformance of the Mighty SP500 and Apple Shares compare to the past 5 years. Also observe that the usual outperformance of Apple Shares at +4.4% til May 22 2015 compare to the past 5 years of +3.4%.

Having that kind of outperformance (SP500) near the end of the month when we take into account the bonds underperformance til May 22 ( I take the IEF ETF - ​​iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund - perf of -1.1%), I expect some asset class switch til mont end: selling SP500 to buy bonds. As Apple shares have been lately very correlated to the whole market, then I expect some pressure also...
AAPL​ Stock Price Daily ( Daily Candle Chart )