TRADING APPLE
TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior - June Seasonals ?
May 31 ( From TradingView )
May 31 ( From TradingView )
May 31: June Seasonals: Lower Your Expectations ?
The Month of June is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole Market
Trend is Range Trade til the 12th, then a ramp up til the 18 followed by a correction til
the 24 to finally close slightlty above the beginning of the month for the Mighty SP500
Index. SO Roller Coaster it is for the month of June.
See the chart below.
The Month of June is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole Market
Trend is Range Trade til the 12th, then a ramp up til the 18 followed by a correction til
the 24 to finally close slightlty above the beginning of the month for the Mighty SP500
Index. SO Roller Coaster it is for the month of June.
See the chart below.
Remember that On May 29, Apple Shares closed Below the Support Trendline then at $131.33.
( Midle Red Trendline on the chart above ). It then becomes Resistance at $131.40 for June 1.
The next huge Resistance Trendline is at $132.57 for June 1, the target for Bulls this week to break for a real Bullish Impulse.
( Top Channel Trendline on the chart above ).
Having a daily close below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) at $128.76 will be seen as weak technicals for me...
RV closed on May 29 at 1.53, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.89. and pure Volatility closed at 21.3% last Friday, level well below its 200 DMA at 28.4%. Be careful as Volatility trend til mid-month is lower.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in June BUT Volatility Bleeding Trend means you will have to trade your options, not holding it til mid-month as history suggest...
The Weekly June 5 130 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.51 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
So in summary, I think the market is buidling too much expectations.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
END.
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
- Average of the past 5 years - June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
June 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
June 1st pegged at 100
.( See chart below )
June 1st pegged at 100
.( See chart below )
For Apple, this is completely another story as shown byt the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on June 3rd til June 15 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
FinancialIceberg.Com
So in summary, we comes from the month of April which historically speaking we had some good performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of May which we had on average over the past 5 years mixed performance... June is quite bad though...
Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
April May June
SP500 +1.2% -2.3% -0.6%
AAPL +3.8% +1.1% -2.7%
Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500 +2.6% +3.4% -2.1%
Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years
April May June
SP500 +1.2% -2.3% -0.6%
AAPL +3.8% +1.1% -2.7%
Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500 +2.6% +3.4% -2.1%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of May 2015, we had +4.5% and +1.0% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, well above of the average performance of the past 5 years as shown on the table above.
So my message here is that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of June is far worst than April or May for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is a negative for the month of June as shown by the table above.
So unless a surprise new product annoncement on WWDC ( Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) 2015 takes places June 8-12 ), expectations for performance on Apple Shares are the weakest of the past 3 months, based on the average of the past 5 years...
So my message here is that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of June is far worst than April or May for Apple Shares Historically speaking BUT Individual Performance is a negative for the month of June as shown by the table above.
So unless a surprise new product annoncement on WWDC ( Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) 2015 takes places June 8-12 ), expectations for performance on Apple Shares are the weakest of the past 3 months, based on the average of the past 5 years...
AAPL Stock Price Daily ( Daily Candle Chart )
