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APPLE Technicals Behavior - The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to AAPL Q1 ER ?
January 25 ( From TradingView, )
January 25 ( From TradingView, )
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January 25: The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to
AAPL Q1 ER ( Earnings Release ) ? A Very Choppy Ride Indeed...
This is a research based on the historical behavior prior and after of the
release of Apple Q1 ER that should be published by Apple on January 27.
And it brings more precision than previous Research of the past two weeks
as it takes a zoom into the few days around ER.
But here they are again if you want to read them: Louis Pasteur
Chance Favors the prepared mind.
APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior Before Q1 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
APPLE Volatility Technicals - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior Before Q1 ER (Earnings Release) ?
As usual, when Apple announce the ER date, market start to speculate on potential earnings well in advance.
But this year, with the iPhone 6 and especially the iPhone 6+, expectations are
already through the sky. But as we know, China will be included in that number this year, with some introduction delay which is adding some nervousness on the forecast.
On Price Trend for Apple Shares:
What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking the Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days before and 1 Trading Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is January 27 ) of the past 5 years
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )
T-2 is January 23, Two Trading Days Before ER
T-1 is January 26, One Trading Day Before ER
T=0 is January 27, Last Trading Day Before ER
T+1 is January 28, One Trading Day After ER
In the past 5 years, we had 3 Bull ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2012, 2011 and 2010 ) - AVG BULL
In the past 5 years, we had 2 Bear ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2014 and 2013 ) AVG BEAR
Apple Shares Price Change in % in Different Scenario
From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).
From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be January 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +3.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -9.0%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -1.2%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -1.2%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +2.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +1.7%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +1.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +1.3%
So what we can conclude ( IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares create a skew on Bullish results ( +3.9% ) compare to Bear results ( -9.0% ).
- In either a Bull or a Bear Scenario, the Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years at -1.2% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1.
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at 2.5% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +1.7% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at +1.5% higher and +1.3% for the Bear Case.
Because we had tremendous volatility in the global markets lately, I decided to study also the Volatility of Apple Shares ( CBOE Apple VIX ).
What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days before and 1 Trading Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is January 27 ) of the past 3 years
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )
T-2 is January 23, Two Trading Days Before ER
T-1 is January 26, One Trading Day Before ER
T=0 is January 27, Last Trading Day Before ER
T+1 is January 28, One Trading Day After ER
In the past 3 years, we had 1 Bull ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2012, 2011 and 2010 ) - AVG BULL
In the past 3 years, we had 1 Bear ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2014 and 2013 ) AVG BEAR
Apple Shares Price Volatility Change in % in Different Scenario
CBOE Apple VIX
From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).
From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be January 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -30.3%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -20.5%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -0.4%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR ) is flat 0.0%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +6.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +9.4%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +4.1%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +3.9%
So what we can conclude ( IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares does not create a skew on Volatility : in Bullish results ( -30.3% ) compare to Bear results ( -20.5% ).
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in for the Bull Case at -0.4% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1 and flat 0.0% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in Bull Case at +6.9% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +9.4% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in Bull Case at +4.1% higher and +3.9% for the Bear Case.
And the Average Volatility at T-2 Closing ( in our Case January 23 ) was 36.0% and the close on last Friday ( January 23 ) was 35.9%; so in line with past history in terms of Volatility at T-2 before ER.
What have changed compare to the last 5 events :
1) Expectations are the highest of the past 5 years because of the iPhone6+ and Apple Pay.
2) China will be included in the Q1 ER ( which is 15 to 20% of Apple Sales ) with some delay.
3) A bigger iPhone 6+ being offered was sold out most of the Q1 period -
Are clients will wait or buy the iPhone 6 instead...
4) Since the Split in June 2014, Apple Shares Behavior are different: Retail Participants will bring more Volatility in Apple Shares Prices.
5) SP500 Futures is in Correction Mode.
Q1 ER Apple Shares Price Behavior are the most choppiest and volatile of all the quarters Because it is the first quarter that extend new product introduction and volatility from the SP500 at the beginning of the year.
The one week option market ( January 30 expiration date ) is pricing already huge expectations:
Closing Price of Apple Shares was $112.98 on January 23.
- The 113 straddle ( long call and long put 113 handle strike ) closed at $6.02 on January 23rd.
- The 118 calls closed at $1.10
- The 108 put closed at $1.23
For me, the market should focus on guidance and not only the Q1 results...
Interesting article that shows expectations for January 27 ER:
Handicapping Apple's earnings
END.
AAPL Q1 ER ( Earnings Release ) ? A Very Choppy Ride Indeed...
This is a research based on the historical behavior prior and after of the
release of Apple Q1 ER that should be published by Apple on January 27.
And it brings more precision than previous Research of the past two weeks
as it takes a zoom into the few days around ER.
But here they are again if you want to read them: Louis Pasteur
Chance Favors the prepared mind.
APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior Before Q1 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
APPLE Volatility Technicals - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior Before Q1 ER (Earnings Release) ?
As usual, when Apple announce the ER date, market start to speculate on potential earnings well in advance.
But this year, with the iPhone 6 and especially the iPhone 6+, expectations are
already through the sky. But as we know, China will be included in that number this year, with some introduction delay which is adding some nervousness on the forecast.
On Price Trend for Apple Shares:
What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking the Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days before and 1 Trading Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is January 27 ) of the past 5 years
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )
T-2 is January 23, Two Trading Days Before ER
T-1 is January 26, One Trading Day Before ER
T=0 is January 27, Last Trading Day Before ER
T+1 is January 28, One Trading Day After ER
In the past 5 years, we had 3 Bull ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2012, 2011 and 2010 ) - AVG BULL
In the past 5 years, we had 2 Bear ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2014 and 2013 ) AVG BEAR
Apple Shares Price Change in % in Different Scenario
From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).
From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be January 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +3.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -9.0%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -1.2%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -1.2%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +2.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +1.7%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +1.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +1.3%
So what we can conclude ( IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares create a skew on Bullish results ( +3.9% ) compare to Bear results ( -9.0% ).
- In either a Bull or a Bear Scenario, the Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years at -1.2% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1.
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at 2.5% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +1.7% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at +1.5% higher and +1.3% for the Bear Case.
Because we had tremendous volatility in the global markets lately, I decided to study also the Volatility of Apple Shares ( CBOE Apple VIX ).
What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days before and 1 Trading Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is January 27 ) of the past 3 years
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )
T-2 is January 23, Two Trading Days Before ER
T-1 is January 26, One Trading Day Before ER
T=0 is January 27, Last Trading Day Before ER
T+1 is January 28, One Trading Day After ER
In the past 3 years, we had 1 Bull ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2012, 2011 and 2010 ) - AVG BULL
In the past 3 years, we had 1 Bear ER Results in terms
of Market Shift ( 2014 and 2013 ) AVG BEAR
Apple Shares Price Volatility Change in % in Different Scenario
CBOE Apple VIX
From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).
From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be January 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -30.3%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR ) of a fall of -20.5%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -0.4%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR ) is flat 0.0%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +6.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +9.4%
From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be January 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +4.1%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR ) of a rise of +3.9%
So what we can conclude ( IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares does not create a skew on Volatility : in Bullish results ( -30.3% ) compare to Bear results ( -20.5% ).
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in for the Bull Case at -0.4% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1 and flat 0.0% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in Bull Case at +6.9% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +9.4% for the Bear Case.
- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 3 years in Bull Case at +4.1% higher and +3.9% for the Bear Case.
And the Average Volatility at T-2 Closing ( in our Case January 23 ) was 36.0% and the close on last Friday ( January 23 ) was 35.9%; so in line with past history in terms of Volatility at T-2 before ER.
What have changed compare to the last 5 events :
1) Expectations are the highest of the past 5 years because of the iPhone6+ and Apple Pay.
2) China will be included in the Q1 ER ( which is 15 to 20% of Apple Sales ) with some delay.
3) A bigger iPhone 6+ being offered was sold out most of the Q1 period -
Are clients will wait or buy the iPhone 6 instead...
4) Since the Split in June 2014, Apple Shares Behavior are different: Retail Participants will bring more Volatility in Apple Shares Prices.
5) SP500 Futures is in Correction Mode.
Q1 ER Apple Shares Price Behavior are the most choppiest and volatile of all the quarters Because it is the first quarter that extend new product introduction and volatility from the SP500 at the beginning of the year.
The one week option market ( January 30 expiration date ) is pricing already huge expectations:
Closing Price of Apple Shares was $112.98 on January 23.
- The 113 straddle ( long call and long put 113 handle strike ) closed at $6.02 on January 23rd.
- The 118 calls closed at $1.10
- The 108 put closed at $1.23
For me, the market should focus on guidance and not only the Q1 results...
Interesting article that shows expectations for January 27 ER:
Handicapping Apple's earnings
END.
April 2013
July 2013
October 2013
January 2014
