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APPLE Technicals Behavior - The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to AAPL Q2 ER ?   
 April 26 ( From TradingView,  )
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April 26: The Day after Tomorrow: a Micro Approach to
​AAPL Q2 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?   A Very Choppy Ride Indeed...

This is a research based on the historical behavior prior and after of the
​release of Apple Q2 ER that should be published by Apple on April 27. ​

​​And it brings more precision than previous Research of the past two weeks
as it takes a zoom into the few days around ER​.


​​But here they are again if you want to read them: ​                                                     Louis Pasteur
                                                                                                                                                                Chance Favors the prepared mind.​

​​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Behavior Before Q2 ER ( Earnings Release ) ?
                                                                                                                                   ​
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​APPLE Technicals Behavior - Apple Shares Volatility Behavior til Q2 ER ?

​​​
​As usual, when Apple announce the ER date, market start to speculate on ​potential earnings well in advance.

But this year, with the iPhone 6 and especially the iPhone 6+, ​expectations are
​already through the sky.​ ​​ But as we know, China will be ​included in that number this year, with some introduction delay which is adding some nervousness on the forecast.

On Price Trend for Apple Shares:

​​What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking the Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days​​​​ before and 1 Trading ​Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is January 27 ) of the past 5 years​
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )

T-2 is April 23, Two Trading Days Before ER​​
​T-1 is April 24, One Trading Day Before ER​​
​T=0 is April 27, Last Trading Day Before ER​​
​​T+1 is April 28, One Trading Day After ER

In the past 5 years, we had 4 Bull ER Results in terms
​of Market Shift ( 2014, 2012, 2011 and ​2010 ) - AVG BULL                                    

​In the past 5 years, we had 1 Bear ER Results in terms
​of Market Shift ( 2013 ) AVG BEAR 

                                                ​​Apple Shares Price Change in % in Different Scenario

















From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).

From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be April 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +6.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a fall of -3.1%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be January 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -1.1%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a fall of -5.2%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +1.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a rise of +0.3%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +0.5%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a fall of +2.9%
​​​

So what we can conclude ( ​​IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares create a skew on Bullish results ( +6.9% ) compare to Bear results ( -3.1% ).
- In a Bull Scenario, the Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years at -0.4% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1.
​- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at +1.5% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +0.3% for the Bear Case.
​​​​- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 5 years in Bull Case at +0.5% higher and -2.9% for the Bear Case.
​​


​​​
​Because we had tremendous volatility in the global markets lately, I decided to study also the Volatility of Apple Shares ( CBOE Apple VIX ).

What I found is quite interesting ( IF history repeat itself for sure ):
1) Taking Open High Low and Closing Levels for Apple Shares Price 2 Trading Days​​​​ before and 1 Trading ​Day after the ER dates ( T=0 on the Spreadsheet below - is April 27 ) of the past 4 years​
2) Looking at Price Change in % in different scenario ( See Excel Spreadsheet Below )

T-2 is April 23, Two Trading Days Before ER​​
​T-1 is April 24, One Trading Day Before ER​​
​T=0 is April 27, Last Trading Day Before ER​​
​​T+1 is April 28, One Trading Day After ER

In the past 4 years, we had 1 Bull ER Results in terms
​of Market Shift ( 2014, 2012, 2011 and ​2010 ) - AVG BULL

​In the past 4 years, we had 1 Bear ER Results in terms
​of Market Shift ( 2013 ) AVG BEAR

                                                  Apple Shares Price Volatility Change in % in Different Scenario​
                                                                                      ​CBOE Apple VIX
                        














​​

From a Short Term Trader Perspectives, we will look at those past results by taking more than daily closing prices to gain more insight ( IF History Repeat Itself... Look at the Spreadsheet above ).

From the Closing at T=0 (in our case will be April 27) to the Opening on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -21.8%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR )​​ of a fall of -29.6%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the High on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -4.1%
- In Bear Case, we had an avergae (AVG BEAR )​​ of a fall of  -6.0%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the Low on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a rise of +1.9%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a rise of +1.1%

From the Opening at T+1 (in our case will be April 28) to the Close on T+1 (in our case will be April 28):
- In Bull Case we had an average (AVG BULL ) of a fall of -1.0%
- In Bear Case, we had an average (AVG BEAR )​​ of a rise of +0.4%
​​​

So what we can conclude ( ​​IF History Repeat Itself... ):
- Expectations on Apple Shares does not create a skew on Volatility : in Bullish results ( -21.8% ) compare to Bear results ( -29.6% ).
- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 4 years in for the Bull Case at -4.1% below the high price reached during the trading session at T+1 and fall -6.0% for the Bear Case.
​- The Opening Price at T+1 is on Average of the past 4 years in Bull Case at +1.9% higher the Low price reached during the trading session at T+1 and +1.1% for the Bear Case.
​​​​- The Opening Price at T+1 compare to the Closing Price on the same Day at T+1 is on Average of the past 4 years in Bull Case at -1.0% lower and +0.4% for the Bear Case.

​​And the Average Volatility at T-1 Closing ( in our Case  April 24 ) was 34.27%; so a shy lower with past history in terms of Volatility at T-1 before ER.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​What have changed​ compare to the last 5 events :
1) Expectations are the highest of the past 5 years because of the iPhone6+ and the iWatch.
2) China will be included in the Q2 ER ( which is 15 to 20% of Apple Sales ) with some delay.
3) China Growth into the 4G will help Applein the Q2 period -
​4) ​Since the Split in June 2014, Apple Shares Behavior are different: Retail Participants will bring more Volatility in Apple Shares Prices.
5) SP500 Futures At the highest Ever.

​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Q2 ER Apple Shares Price Behavior are not the choppiest and volatile of all the quarters Because it is the first second quarter.

The one week option market ( May 1 expiration date ) is pricing already huge expectations:
Closing Price of Apple Shares was $130.28 on April 24.​
- The 130 straddle ( long call and long put 130 handle strike ) closed at ​$7.15 on April 24.
SO market is pricing a 5.5% move...​
- The 135 calls closed at $1.52
- The 125 put closed at $1.57


For me, the market should focus on guidance, the iWatch and not only the Q2 results​...


Interesting article that shows expectations for April 27 ER:

​Handicapping Apple's earnings

Apple Q2 2015 Earnings Preview: Another Strong Quarter Driven By iPhone In China
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​​END.

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