TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior 
 Novembber 1 ( From TradingView )


November 1: November Seasonals: Roller Coaster ?

​​​​​November Market Seasonals (SP500)

​​The Month of November is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole
​Market is more Choppy than usual: From a peak on November 5th, slow bleed and
​resume ​uptrend usually around November 17 almost til month end.​ The Trade Pattern
​is to finally to have a close above the beginning of the ​month ​for the Mighty SP500
​​Index. SO good Technical Pattern it is for the month of ​November after that last down
​wave around the 17th...

See the chart below.

​​​​​RV closed on October 30 at ​​1.75, below it s 200 DMA at 1.90  and pure Volatility​ closed at 26.3% on October 30, level below its 200 DMA at 30.6%.  Volatility trend til mid month is very choppy bottoming around the November 6...

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility seems to be on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in November but picking up only after November 6 th...  Next weekly research on that...

You can see a Chart of​​ Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE HERE.


​The Weekly November 6 119 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on October 30 at $2.99 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


Challenges for Bulls this week ( resistances )
1) Weekly Close above the weekly resistance trendline at $119.75​
2) Close above the 200 DMA ( Green Line - chart below )
3) But most importantly, a daily close above the Marjor Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015
( Top Amber Tredline - chart below - ellipse on the right side ) for November 2nd at $123.38

​​​4) Need to stay above the support trendline at $114.72 ( Bottom Amber Tredline - chart below  )

​​​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - November 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years November 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
 November 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

For Apple, this is almost the same pattern except stronger after mid-month as shown by the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5 til November 17
2) ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17 til November 29
So in summary, we comes from the month of October which historically speaking we had some above average performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of November which we had on average over the past 5 years average performance... 


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                         May​​​         June          July           August    September   October   November

SP500                             -2.3%         -0.6%        +1.9%          -1.5%         +1.1%         +3.9%       +1.0%

AAPL​​​​                              +1.1%         -2.7%        +8.0%         +3.4%         +2.5%         +3.7%       +2.5%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​          +3.4%         -2.1%        +6.1%          +4.9%         +1.4%         -0.2%       +1.5%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of October 2015, we had +8.34% and +8.30% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, well above target for the average performance of the past 5 years for Apple Shares as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of November is worst than October and almost as September for Apple Shares Historically speaking AND Individual Performance is a positive for the month of November as shown by the table above.

November is historically one of the average ​​relative monthly performance for Apple Shares based on the average performance of the past 5 years ...

But IF history repeat itself, from  November 5 til November 17, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -1.7%.​​

​​But IF history repeat itself, from November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2% and from that peak (Nov 29), start to underperform til month end by -0.7%.​​


Apple Shares ( Daily Candles )
​​20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
​​​200 DMA ( Green Line )