APPLE Technicals Behavior -
November 08 ( From TradingView )
November 8: Volatility Seasonals: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
The Month of November is also very special in terms of Seasonalities for
Volatility as the whole Market is quite choppy mainly til November 17th.
SO higher Volatility til mid-month of November and fade for the VIX Index.
See the chart below.
So in summary, I think the market is coming from a low volatile environment and Volatility Premiums are too low getting into November 17.
Already the price action of Apple Shares ( Range Pattern ) of last week tell me that Volatility is on the cheap side.
So in that market scenario, we cant be long term Options Premium especially before November 17th.
From November 17th, Volatility fall tremndously...
So after that point, better play spreads options to protect falling volatility, IF history repeat itself for sure...
We tested on November 4 the Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015
( Downtrend Channel Resistance Trendline - chart below ) and failed to break it: for November 9th at $122.87
Challenges for Bulls this week ( supports )
1) Weekly Close above the weekly trendline at $119.75
2) Close above the daily support trendline from the uptrend channel at $119.87 ( chart below )
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Daily Chart- Seasonalities- Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - November 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE
- Average of the past 5 years November 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index Volatility Index VIX from CBOE -
Average of the past 5 years
- November 1st pegged at 100
.( See chart below )
For Apple, a rise from November 6th til November 10th , fall til the 13th to spike up til November 17 as shown by the chart below. So very choppy...
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Volatility of Apple Shares that historically start on November 14 til November 18 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
Relative Volatility VIX between AAPL Stock and SP500 Index ( Daily Candle Chart )
RV closed on November 6 at 1.86, slightly below it s 200 DMA at 1.90. and pure Volatility closed at 26.7% last Friday, level below its 200 DMA at 30.3% as shown by the 2 charts below.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in November til the 17th and fall thereafter. SO Higher Volatility Trend means it is less risky to be long Volatility Premiums on long term options getting to November 17th.
The Weekly November 13 2015 121 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $2.73 and
The Monthly April 15 2016 120 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $16.59 and
I will follow those straddles this week...
Daily Chart - CBOE Apple VIX
Apple Shares ( Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )
200 DMA ( Green Line )