APPLE Technicals Behavior
November 15 ( From TradingView )
November 15: Big Picture: According to the Plan
On November 1, I mentioned in my Weekly Research ( Seasonals: Roller Coaster ? )
that the month of November is quite special on AAPL. I wrote then:
But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years)
1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 5
til November 17
2) Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on November 17
til November 29
But IF history repeat itself, from November 5 til November 17, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -1.7%.
Already, from the close of November 4 til 13. Apple Shares have underperformed by -3.84% the Mighty SP500.
We are near reversal this week, around November 17 on average for the Relative Performance of Apple Shares, according to the behavior of the past 5 years.
And IF history repeat itself, from November 17 til November 29, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +4.2% and from that peak (Nov 29), start to underperform til month end by -0.7%.
RV closed on November 13 at 1.61, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.89 and pure Volatility closed at 32.26% last Friday, level well above its 200 DMA at 30.2%.
Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to rise til Mid-Month ( November 17 ) as stated in my last weekly research: Volatility Seasonals: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
It is important to know for long term options behavior....
The Weekly November 20 112 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.69 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
We need to be cautious as we are near reversal in seasonals and my Trendicator are getting near an oversold zone as shown here.
It does tell me that we will have this week a potential violent rebound, a dead cat bounce only for now...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Candles - Weekly Chart
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Weekly
On June 8 week, we broke on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel support then at $127.57 support. SO by breaking that support from the main channel that started back in November 2014 at $127.57, it was a very bad technical sign for me indeed...
Also, on the November 2 week, we tested on a weekly basis the uptrend channel at $121.22 and failed to closed above, even was rejected violently on the week of November 9.
( See chart below )
ONLY a Weekly close above $122.60 ( coming from a New Weekly Resistance Trendline that started back on the week of July 20 2015 ) will cancel that the Bear Trend as shown by the chart below ( Grey Trendline ).
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - November 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Why I put so much emphasis on Relative Performance for Apple Shares, it is because we may be in a Major Turnaround for stocks as shown by the chart below...
SP500 (SPY ETF)
Breakdown of the Rising Channel
SP500 is already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern because it broke the Monthly Major Support Trendlines of that Rising Channel. Only a Monthly close within the channel can avoid that Bear signal.
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Monthly
In the case of Apple Shares, we are still above the Main Support Trendline that started back in March 2009 ( Blue Line Chart Below - $80.43 ) and another one Major Supportive Trendline that started in June 2013 ( Yellow Line Chart Below - $106.26 ). But we already broke the shortest Uptrend Channel in August 2014 and into a new Monthly Downtrend Channel.
ONLY a Monthly close above $117.16 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below. To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Monthly close above $122.22 ( Previous Monthly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Candles - Monthly Chart