TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior 
 Novembber 29 ( From TradingView )


November 29: December Seasonals: No Santa Claus for Apple Shares ?

​​​​​December Market Seasonals (SP500)

​​The Month of December is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole
​Market is more trendy than usual: From a peak on December 6th, correction til
December 15​ and ​resume a strong ​uptrend almost til month end.​ The Trade Pattern
​is to finally to have a close above the beginning of the ​month ​for the Mighty SP500
​​Index. SO good Technical Pattern it is for the month of ​December after that last down
​wave around the 15th...

See the chart below.

​​​​​RV closed on November 27 at ​​1.66, below it s 200 DMA at 1.90  and pure Volatility​ closed at 25.1% on November 27, level below its 200 DMA at 30.1%.  Volatility trend til mid month is very choppy bottoming around the December 2 to peak on December 15...

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility seems to be on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in December but picking up only after December 2...  Next weekly research on that...

You can see a Chart of​​ Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares December Volatility VIX
​from CBOE HERE.


​The Weekly December 4 118 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on November 27 at $2.49 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


Challenges for Bulls this week ( resistances )
1) Weekly Close above the weekly resistance trendline at $119.75​
2) Close above the 200 DMA ( Green Line - chart below )
3) Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 28 2015
( Top Amber Trendline - chart below - ellipse on the right side ) for November 30 at $121.50

​​​4) Major Support Trendline that started back on August 24 2015 at $113.89 for November 30
 ( Bottom Amber Tredline - chart below  )

​​​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - December 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years December 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
 December 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

For Apple, this is almost the same pattern except a lot weaker after mid-month as shown by the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know: (according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below)
​1) Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 3 til December 19 
2) Tiny ​​Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on December 19 til December 31 
So in summary, we comes from the month of October which historically speaking we had some above average performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of December which we had on average over the past 5 years average severe underperformance of Apple Shares...
​( based on a moving average 20 days - end of the month )... 


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                        June          July           August    September   October   November   December

SP500                              -0.6%        +1.9%          -1.5%         +1.1%         +3.9%       +1.0%         +2.2%

AAPL​​​​                               -2.7%        +8.0%         +3.4%         +2.5%         +3.7%       +2.5%          -0.8%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​           -2.1%        +6.1%          +4.9%         +1.4%         -0.2%       +1.5%          -3.0%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of November 2015 (til November 27), we had -0.99% and +0.52% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, well below the target for the average performance of the past 5 years for Apple Shares as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of December is the second worst month after January for Apple Shares Historically speaking AND Individual Performance is a negative for the month of December as shown by the table above.

But IF history repeat itself, from  December 3 til December 19, Apple Shares usually underperform the Mighty SP500 by -4.2%.​​

​​But IF history repeat itself, from December 19 til December 31, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by +0.5% til month end.​​


Apple Shares ( Daily Candles )
​​20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
​​​200 DMA ( Green Line )