APPLE Technicals Behavior - Volatility Seasonals ?
September 13 ( From TradingView )
September 13: Volatility Seasonals: Increased Volatility Ahead ?
The Month of September is also very special in terms of Seasonalities for Volatility
as the whole Market is quite choppy as we are getting out of the summer time.
SO Roller Coaster it is for the month of September for SP500 VIX Index.
See the chart below.
What puzzled me here is that ( as mentioned on Friday s September 11 Daily ) for Apple Shares we already broke that Falling Wedge ( see 1rst chart below - top red trendline -ellipse ) at $113.86
but we did not break the Technical Pennant Pattern on the SPY ETF. ( MUST READ click on the blue link on your left )
Daily Chart- Seasonalities- Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - September 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE
- Average of the past 5 years
September 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 IndexVolatility Index VIX from CBOE -
Average of the past 5 years
- September 1st pegged at 100
.( See chart below )
For Apple, it is almost the same story as turning with higher Volatility around the 18th of September on average as shown by the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Volatility on Apple Shares that historically start on September 15 til September 22 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
Relative Volatility VIX between AAPL Stock and SP500 Index ( Daily Candle Chart )
RV closed on September 11 at 1.58, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.89. and pure Volatility closed at 36.7% last Friday, level well above its 200 DMA at 29.7% as shown by the 2 charts below.
What I am telling you is that Relative Volatility is on the cheap side considering the Seasonality in September. But the pure Volatility level is quite expensive at 36.7%. SO Higher Volatility Trend in mid-September is quite interesting BUT starting at those high levels (36.7%) tells me to play options spreads only.
The Weekly September 18 115 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.58 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
As a reminder, we saw on the Wekkly Research last week ( An Uneasy Path ?
So my message here is that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of September is average for Apple Shares Historically speaking from beginning of the month to the end.
BUT from the 11th ( but mailny really starting on the 16th ) to the 23rd of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an outperformance of Apple Shares from 99.49 to 104.5 on a Relative basis or +5.03% IF history repeat itself for sure...
Having Relative Volatiliy and Relative Outperformance almost at the same dates is quite something that traders must take note of...
Daily Chart - CBOE Apple VIX
Apple Shares Daily Price ( Candles )
So in summary, IF history repeat itself, we are near a turnaround in Relative Volatility and Outperformance for Apple Shares.
Breaking the Technical Pennant Pattern will give the next big move for the SPY ETF.
The China situation is not stabilize yet, the same for Emerging Markets Currencies.
As long as we have those going on, we will have a choppy and risky stock market behavior...
We will have to play it accordingly.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...