TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior 
 October 4 ( From TradingView )


October 4: October Seasonals: Choppy but Friendly ?

​​​​
​October Market Seasonals.​

​​The Month of October is also very special in terms of Seasonalities as the whole
​Market is more Choppy than usual but resume uptrend usually around October 9
almost til month end.​ TheTrade Pattern is to finally close above the beginning of the
​month ​for the Mighty SP500 ​Index. SO good Technical Pattern it is for the month of
​October after that last down wave around the 9th...

See the chart below.

​​​​​RV closed on October 2 at ​​1.90, near it s 200 DMA at 1.87  and pure Volatility​ closed at 39.7% on October 2, level well above its 200 DMA at 30.4%.  Volatility trend til mid month is trendless to fall tremendously after...

What I am telling you is that Volatilty and Relative Volatility seems to be on the expensive side considering the Seasonality in October...

You can see a Chart of​​ Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares Volatility VIX from CBOE HERE.


​The Weekly October 9 110 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on October 2 at $3.74 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​


Knowing that seasonals are weak til October 9​: ​The best technical set up for me is to stay above $107.31 til October 9 and thereafter test the 20 DMA now at $112.91 and see IF we break it or not...

​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...

END.​​
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - October 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years October 1st pegged at 100 ​

( See chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Daily Performance in % of SP500 Index - Average of the past 5 years
 October 1st pegged at 100


.( See chart below )

For Apple, this is almost the same pattern except after mid-month as shown by the chart below.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start on October 6 til October 14 according to the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
So in summary, we comes from the month of September which historically speaking we had some average performance from the SP500 Index and Apple to a Month of October which we had on average over the past 5 years good performance... 


Monthly Seasonalities - Monthly Performance in % of SP500 and Apple Shares - Average of the past 5 years

​​                                         April         May​​​         June          July           August    September   October 

SP500                              +1.2%     -2.3%         -0.6%        +1.9%          -1.5%         +1.1%         +3.9%

AAPL​​​​                               +3.8%     +1.1%         -2.7%        +8.0%         +3.4%         +2.5%         +3.7%

Relative
Outperformance
AAPL over SP500​​​​           +2.6%     +3.4%         -2.1%        +6.1%          +4.9%         +1.4%         -0.2%
Interesting to note that this year for the month of September 2015, we had -2.2% and -2.6% monthly performance respectively for Apple Shares and the Mighty SP500 Index, well below of the average performance of the past 5 years for Apple Shares as shown on the table above.

So my message here is that ​​in terms of Relative Performance, the month of October is far worst than September or August for Apple Shares Historically speaking AND Individual Performance is a positive for the month of October as shown by the table above.

October is historically one of the weakest ​​relative monthly performance for Apple Shares based on the average performance of the past 5 years ...

But IF history repeat itself, from October 6 to October 14, Apple Shares usually outperform the Mighty SP500 by
+3.7% and from that peak, start to underperform til month end by -2.4%.​​