APPLE Technicals Behavior - An Uneasy Path ?
September 07 ( From TradingView, Fortune, BTIG )
September 07: An Uneasy Path ?
We have seen on Last Week Research ( August 30: Apple Shares Behavior
Before the September Event and after ? ) that Apple Shares in Relative
Performance to the Mighty SP500 Index do better starting 2 trading days
before the event
and start a grinding process.
But in fact, what it is important for us to know is the Relative Outperformance
of Apple Shares that historically start on September 11 til 23 according to
the past 5 years as shown by the chart below.
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - September 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Even if China try to hide how things are bad, we have a few statistics that really shows it:
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall in August on Yuan Support
So my message here is that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of September is average for Apple Shares Historically speaking from beginning of the month to the end.
BUT from the 11th ( but mailny really starting on the 16th ) to the 23rd of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an outperformance of Apple Shares from 99.49 to 104.5 on a Relative basis or +5.03% IF history repeat itself for sure...
Relative Volatility closed at 1.63 on September 4, well below its 200 DMA at 1.90 and pure Volatility closed at 45.31 last Friday, level well above the 200 DMA at 29.4%. Volatility trend is to fall after the Special Event ( IF China does not bring surprise this year ).
What I am telling you is that Volatilty is expensive and is bottoming out only after the SE event: September 18 is the bottoming ending phase in Volatility seasonalities. China can change that this year though...
The Weekly September 11 109 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed on September 4 at $4.91 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
IF history repeat itself for sure, the best risk reward trade set up in term of Relative Performance should be from mid-September to the 23rd....
But as China continue to bring us Volatility, it is becoming an Uneasy Path for Apple Shares... We need to Follow the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM) for more insights; as soon as it will start to fall, Apple Shares will Ouperform the Mighty SP500 Index.
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
In fact, on average Apple’s stock is up 0.2% the day of the announcement and over the past three years that figure is -0.4%....
And especially this year with the Market Turmoil on Emerging Markets and China, it is harder to predict the market behavior than the usual price pattern. Take a look at how Apple Shares behave compare to the China Stock Market...
See the chart below.
Expectations from the Special Event ( “Hey Siri, give us a hint.” ) on September 9 will bring a lot of enthusiasm from fanboys and the new products/features. One interesting chart on a Fortune article about the price performance of Apple Shares since 2007 one month before and after the iPhone Event.
Apple Shares Pirce Change One Month before and after the SE
Apple Shares ( Candles - Right Scale )
SP Citic China 30 Index ( Blue Line - Left Scale )