APPLE Technicals Behavior
September 20 ( From TradingView )
September 20: Big Picture: Hope is not a Strategy
On September 7, I mentioned in my Weekly Research ( An Uneasy Path ?
) that the
month of September is quite special on AAPL. I wrote then: So my message here is
that in terms of Relative Performance, the month of September is average for Apple
Shares Historically speaking from beginning of the month to the end.
BUT from the 11th ( but mailny really starting on the 16th ) to the 23rd of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an outperformance of Apple Shares from 99.49 to 104.5 on a Relative basis or +5.03% IF history repeat itself for sure...
As of September 18, for the month of September 2015, AAPL Shares are up +0.61% and the SP500 Index is down -0.72%, starting to be in line with Monthly expectations as shown by the chart below...
RV closed on September 18 at 1.59, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.88 and pure Volatility closed at 35.36% last Friday, level well above its 200 DMA at 29.9%.
What I am telling you is that Volatilty is still on the expansive side but NOT Relative Volatility considering the factors above that can bring Volatility in Apple Shares til the end of the month...
Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to rise til Month End as stated in my last weekly research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - Volatility Seasonals ?
It is important to know for long term options behavior....
The Weekly September 25 114 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.37 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
We need to be cautious as SP500 is now within a Monthly Downtrend Channel...
But in fact, what it is important for us to know ( IF history repeat itself ) is that Relative Outperformance of Apple Shares that historically start from the 11th ( but mailny really starting on the 16th ) to the 23rd of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an outperformance of Apple Shares from 99.49 to 104.5 on a Relative basis or +5.03% IF history repeat itself for sure and China stock market behave...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Candles - Weekly Chart
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Weekly
On June 8 week, we broke on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel support then at $127.57 support. SO by breaking that support from the main channel that started back in November 2014 at $127.57, it was a very bad technical sign for me indeed...
Also, on the August 3 rd week, we broke on a weekly basis the downtrend channel at $118.06. ( See chart below )
For the weekly, we are now within a downtrend channel that started on the week of July 20 with $95.45 as support and $114.85 as resistance. See chart below.
ONLY a Weekly close above $114.85 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below. To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Weekly close above $119.75 ( Previous Weekly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - September 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
Why I put so much emphasis on Relative Performance for Apple Shares, it is because we may be in a Major Turnaround for stocks as shown by the chart below...
SP500 (SPY ETF)
Breakdown of the Rising Channel
SP500 is already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern because it broke the Monthly Major Support Trendlines of that Rising Channel. Only a September Monthly close within the channel can avoid that Bear signal.
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Monthly
In the case of Apple Shares, we are still above the Main Support Trendline that started back in March 2009 ( Blue Line Chart Below - $78.36 ) and another one MajorSupportive Trendline that started in June 2013 ( Yellow Line Chart Below - $102.90 ). But we already broke the shortest Uptrend Channel in August 2014 and into a new Monthly Downtren Channel.
ONLY a Monthly close above $116.89 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below. To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Monthly close above $120.79 ( Previous Monthly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Candles - Monthly Chart