TRADING APPLE

 TECHNICALS
APPLE Technicals Behavior 
 September 28 ( From TradingView )


September 28: Big Picture: End of the month

On September 7, I mentioned in my Weekly Research that the ​month of September is
​quite special on AAPL. I wrote then: So my message here is ​that ​​in terms of Relative
​Performance
, the month of September is average for Apple ​Shares Historically
​speaking from beginning of the month to the end. As of ​September 25, for the month
​of September 2015, AAPL Shares are up +1.73% and the SP500 Index is down -2.07%,
​starting to be in line with Monthly expectations as shown by the chart below...​​

I still don t know IF Apple will publish officially their Lauch Week End sales of the new iPhones....​​
Expectations are between 12 to 13 millions units...​ BUT Relative Performance for month end is down usually...
​Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start from the 23rd to the 30th of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an underperformance of Apple Shares​​ from 104.5 to 101.33 on a Relative basis or -3.03%.

Relative Volatility closed on September 25 at ​​1.52, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.87 and pure Volatility​ closed at 35.96% last Friday, level well above its 200 DMA at 30.1%.

Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to rise til Month End as stated in my last weekly research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - Volatility Seasonals ?
It is important to know for long term options behavior....​

Observe that the last few trading sessions, we have historically a Higher pure Volatility Level BUT a Lower Relative Volatility...

​​​The Weekly October 2 115 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.42 and

I will follow that straddle this week...​​

​​

We need to be cautious as SP500 is now within a Monthly Downtrend Channel...

​​​But in fact, what it is important for us to know ( IF history repeat itself ) is that Relative Performance of Apple Shares that historically start from the 23rd to the 30th of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an underperformance of Apple Shares​​ from 104.5 to 101.33 on a Relative basis or -3.03% IF history repeat itself for sure and conditional IF Apple release Apple iPhones Week End Sales...


​​​Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...


END​​​
Technical Levels
​Apple Shares
Candles - ​Weekly Chart
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Weekly

On June 8 week, we broke on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel support then at $127.57 support.​ SO by breaking that support from the main channel that started back in November 2014 at $127.57, it was a very bad technical sign for me indeed... Also, on the August 3 rd week, we broke on a weekly basis the downtrend channel at $118.06. ( See chart below )​

​For the weekly, we are now within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.82 as resistance. See chart below. And a resistance trendline at $114.85 from Dec 8 2014.

​ONLY a Weekly close above $114.85 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below.​​ To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Weekly close above $119.22 ( Previous Weekly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
​- Average of the past 5 years - September 1st pegged at 100 ​

​​ ( See chart below )
Financialiceberg.Com
Why I put so much emphasis on Relative Performance for Apple Shares, it is because we may be in a Major Turnaround for stocks as shown by the chart below...  SP500 Behavior: Getting Into the Junkyard Phase ?
SP500 (SPY ETF) 
Monthly Chart
​Breakdown of the Rising Channel
SP500 is already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern because it broke the Monthly Major Support Trendlines of that Rising Channel. Only a September Monthly close within the channel can avoid that Bear signal.


​​​​The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Monthly

In the case of Apple Shares, we are still above the Main Support Trendline that started back in March 2009 ( Blue Line Chart Below - $78.36 ) ​​and another one MajorSupportive Trendline that started in June 2013 ( Yellow Line Chart Below - $102.90 ). But we already broke the shortest Uptrend Channel in August 2014 and into a new Monthly Downtren Channel.

ONLY a Monthly close above $116.89 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below.​​ To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Monthly close above $120.79 ( Previous Monthly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )

​​
Technical Levels
​Apple Shares
Candles - ​Monthly Chart
Financialiceberg.com
Financialiceberg.com
Financialiceberg.com