APPLE Technicals Behavior
September 28 ( From TradingView )
September 28: Big Picture: End of the month
On September 7, I mentioned in my Weekly Research that the month of September is
quite special on AAPL. I wrote then: So my message here is that in terms of Relative
Performance, the month of September is average for Apple Shares Historically
speaking from beginning of the month to the end.
As of September 25, for the month
of September 2015, AAPL Shares are up +1.73% and the SP500 Index is down -2.07%,
starting to be in line with Monthly expectations as shown by the chart below...
I still don t know IF Apple will publish officially their Lauch Week End sales of the new iPhones....
Expectations are between 12 to 13 millions units... BUT Relative Performance for month end is down usually...
Relative Underperformance of Apple Shares that historically start from the 23rd to the 30th of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an underperformance of Apple Shares from 104.5 to 101.33 on a Relative basis or -3.03%.
Relative Volatility closed on September 25 at 1.52, well below it s 200 DMA at 1.87 and pure Volatility closed at 35.96% last Friday, level well above its 200 DMA at 30.1%.
Looking at the past 5 years, Volatility of Apple Shares tend to rise til Month End as stated in my last weekly research: APPLE Technicals Behavior - Volatility Seasonals ?
It is important to know for long term options behavior....
Observe that the last few trading sessions, we have historically a Higher pure Volatility Level BUT a Lower Relative Volatility...
The Weekly October 2 115 Straddle ( Long Call and Long Put ) closed last Friday at $3.42 and
I will follow that straddle this week...
We need to be cautious as SP500 is now within a Monthly Downtrend Channel...
But in fact, what it is important for us to know ( IF history repeat itself ) is that Relative Performance of Apple Shares that historically start from the 23rd to the 30th of September, we had on average for the past 5 years an underperformance of Apple Shares from 104.5 to 101.33 on a Relative basis or -3.03% IF history repeat itself for sure and conditional IF Apple release Apple iPhones Week End Sales...
Stay tuned as I will update you in the Daily as usual for specific trading levels on Apple Shares...
Candles - Weekly Chart
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Weekly
On June 8 week, we broke on a weekly basis the main uptrend channel support then at $127.57 support. SO by breaking that support from the main channel that started back in November 2014 at $127.57, it was a very bad technical sign for me indeed...
Also, on the August 3 rd week, we broke on a weekly basis the downtrend channel at $118.06. ( See chart below )
For the weekly, we are now within an uptrend channel that started on the week of August 24 with $112.10 as support and $119.82 as resistance. See chart below.
And a resistance trendline at $114.85 from Dec 8 2014.
ONLY a Weekly close above $114.85 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below. To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Weekly close above $119.22 ( Previous Weekly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Daily Chart - Seasonalities - Relative Daily Performance Index in % of Apple Shares vs SP500 Index
- Average of the past 5 years - September 1st pegged at 100
( See chart below )
SP500 (SPY ETF)
Breakdown of the Rising Channel
SP500 is already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern because it broke the Monthly Major Support Trendlines of that Rising Channel. Only a September Monthly close within the channel can avoid that Bear signal.
The Big Picture for Apple Shares - Monthly
In the case of Apple Shares, we are still above the Main Support Trendline that started back in March 2009 ( Blue Line Chart Below - $78.36 ) and another one MajorSupportive Trendline that started in June 2013 ( Yellow Line Chart Below - $102.90 ). But we already broke the shortest Uptrend Channel in August 2014 and into a new Monthly Downtren Channel.
ONLY a Monthly close above $116.89 will cancel that Downtrend Channel BUT NOT the Bear Trend ( Only delay it ) as shown by the chart below. To cancel the Bear Trend I need a Monthly close above $120.79 ( Previous Monthly Break Out Level - Red Trendline chart below )
Candles - Monthly Chart