Always consider hidden risks
SP500 Futures Daily - Range Bound Market ? PREMIUM USERS #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500
May 5 ( From Barchart, Signal Financial Group, Investopedia, TradingView )
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COT ( Commitment of Traders )
As we can observe on the graph below, large speculators raised their long position of the SP500 the past few weeks ( green line )
And as we can see on the graph below, the seasonality are turning bearish from the 20th of September til November for the SP500...
PREMIUM USERS $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
Seasonalities are turning bullish for the last push for the month of May.
But also lately, Friday have been associated with risk off behavior. On top
of that, we have the Non Farm Payroll Today, a funny Molotov Cocktail.
I think still that we are within a huge range trade and the market
will trade in a choppy manner, wihout real conviction : on one side, main
support are the 20 DMA at 18?? and on the resistance side, the previous
highs at 18?? and 18??.
Some Technical Indicators are showing sign of weakness like the NYSE New Highs / New Lows.
On top of that, Gold and VIX are telling us to expect more volatility ahead.
My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.
SAMPLE ( From Dec 23 )
Two things brang my attention:
1) SP500 Seasonals:
SP500 Seasonality Trend
2) One new Tail Risk Emerging:
China s Stealth Tightening ?
We ll have to monitor that in China, the 1 Month SHIBOR is at 7.66%,
Back to the technical levels now.
I should remind that seasonals of the past 20 years from Dec 19 for the next 21 days gave an average of +3% in terms of performance. SP500 Dec 19 low was 1795. so a +3% gives us an ultimate target of 1849...
And at time of writing, we are already trading at 1821.50...
The market still need to stay above 1806 to keep the grinding Santa Claus Rally Mode; a move towards 1828 max 1832 for today.
Here, we should not be back at the 1806 level today to be in compliance with technicals... Unless risk of slippage towards 1799 and will be bad in the technical sequence... And should continue to grind slowly...
A daily close today below 1806 will bring 1799 and max 1791 ( 20 DMA)...
We are within a new wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1773 support and 1822 resistance.
So we will have a grinding market with some air pockets til the beginning of January...
The market should trade today between 1814 and 1828. Expect average volatility...
And Large Speculators started their liquidation process since May 2013...