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DJ Transport ETF IYT: Can you give me a Break?
 February 27 2017 ( From TradingView )
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The Situation

​​We just start to realize how quick the reaction of the Financial Markets
after the US Election on November 8 2016​ (what I call the Trumpification
with a pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionim bias).
​​​From previous bottom price made ​on October 26 2016 on the Dow Jones ​
​Transportation Average ETF IYT  (iShares Transportation Average ETF) at
​141.68, to the high on February 15 2017 at 172.30, ​a gain of 21.6% (exclusing
dividends)​; for the SP500 Index (SPY ETF - November 4 2016 bottom and
February 23 2017 for highest price​), it was only a gain of 13.7%.​

Rebounding from those technical levels was quite a statement ​from Mr Market
​(a melt up phase technical pattern) and was enough to repair the technical
​damage done pre-election. As Bond ​Yields get more Volatile and FED Officials
​play the ping pong game in terms ​of their comments, stock market behavior was quite strong indeed.

​​But the Mighty Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF (IYT) is trying to change his message as it started to underperform other Major Indices since December 9 2016!


Here is some Technical Observations:​​​
​​1) From the closing price on December 30 2016 for SPY ETF to the close reached on February 24 2017, it was up by 5.9% (excluding dividends); IYT ETF Under performed with 4.3% for the same closing dates. 
(See first chart below)

​​2)
On February 24 2017, IYT ETF closed +13.5% above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) ​(See first chart below - Green line)​  but SPY ETF only +8.6% above its 200 DMA.

3) Historical Volatility (past 10 days) on SPY ETF is just at 4.69, just a lot lower than the IYT ETF at​​ 15.34.


​​​​​​​4) SPY ETF secong breakout was on November 25 2016 (from its Major Resistance Trendline from May 20 2015); IYT ETF broke in fact earlier on November 9 2016 its own Major Resistance Trendline that started back since November 28 2014.(See first chart below - Red Trendline)

5) ​​Break out on a relative basis (the ratio of Dow Jones Transportation ETF IYT ​to the Mighty Dow Jones Industrials ETF DIA) was reached on November 4 2106 as we broke the Major Resistance Trendline that started back since November 28 2014 ​​(See second chart below - Grey Trendline)​  and now back at the Support Trendline that sarted back since June 27 2016. (See second chart below - Red Trendline)​

​​6) ​Let s now compare to the Mighty SP500 Index on a relative basis. The ratio (Dow Jones Transportation ETF IYT ​to the Mighty SP500 Index ETF SPY) peaked also on December 9 2016 and keep making lower highs and lower lows since then.  ​(See third chart below)​ .
And looking at Monthly charts on those ratios gives us a better overview. (See fourth and fifth charts below)

​As most Major Stock Indices have closed to Weekly New Highs last week and most importantly that they were already in a Break Out Technical Pattern Phase, the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT ETF) was unable to do the same technical move.  (See six chart below)

The First Battle for Bulls have been won on November 7 2016 by breaking the Major Resistance Trendline​​. Now, The DJ Transport is the only Major Stock Market Index who did not break out yet technically speaking.  
​(See first chart below - Red Trendline)

The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above the Major Resistance Trendline (that started since November 24 2014 week) to confirm the last piece missing for the IYT ETF puzzle and Break Out on the other Stock Indices.  





​​




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Charles Dow
DJ Transport ETF IYT: Can you give me a Break? $DJT, $SPY #investing #dowtheory #SP500 #dowjonestransport #stocks #transport

Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT
​( Daily Candles )
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Daily RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
over​
​Dow Jones Industrials ​ETF DIA
20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Daily RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ ETF IYT
over​
​SP500 Index ​ETF SPY
20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
over​
​Dow Jones Industrials ​ETF DIA
Monthly RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ ETF IYT
over​
​SP500 Index ​ETF SPY

Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
 ​​( Weekly Candles )

Financialiceberg.Com