FINANCIAL ICEBERG
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 TECHNICALS
DJ Transport ETF IYT: At Technical Crossroads?
 March 27 2017 ( From TradingView )
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We just start to realize how quick the reaction of the Financial Markets
after the US Election on November 8 2016​ (what I call the Trumpification
with a pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionim bias).
​​​From closing price made ​on November 8 2016 on the Dow Jones ​
​Transportation Average ETF IYT  (iShares Transportation Average ETF) at
​149.74, to the high on March 1 2017 at 173.88, ​a gain of 16.1% (excluding
dividends)​; for the SP500 Index (SPY ETF - November 8 2016 closing price and
March 1 2017 for highest price​), it was only a gain of 12.2%.​

Rebounding from those technical levels was quite a statement ​from Mr Market
​(a melt up phase technical pattern) and was enough to repair the technical
​damage done pre-election. As Bond ​Yields get more Volatile and FED Officials
​play the ping pong game in terms ​of their comments, stock market behavior
​was quite strong indeed.

​​But the Mighty Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF (IYT) is trying to change his message as it started to underperform tremendously other Major Indices lately!


Here is some Technical Observations:​​​
​​1) From the closing price on December 30 2016 for SPY ETF to the close reached on March 24 2017, it was up by 4.3% (excluding dividends); IYT ETF Under performed; down 1.3% for the same closing dates. 
(See first chart below)

​​2)
On March 24 2017, IYT ETF closed +5.4% above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) ​(See first chart below - Green line)​  but SPY ETF at +5.9% above its 200 DMA.

3) Historical Volatility (past 10 days) on SPY ETF is just at 10.1, a lot lower than the IYT ETF at​​ 16.1.


​​​​​​​4) SPY ETF is far from testing its Major Support Trendline from June 24 2016; IYT ETF is testing already in fact on March 24 2017 its own Major Support Trendline that started back since June 27 2016.(See first chart below - Red Trendline)

5) ​​Break Down on a relative basis (the ratio of Dow Jones Transportation ETF IYT ​to the Mighty Dow Jones Industrials ETF DIA) was reached on March 7 2107 as we broke the Support Trendline that started back since June 24 2016 ​​(See second chart below - Red Trendline)​  and now below the Previous Major Break Out Trendline that sarted back since November 26 2014. (See second chart below - Grey Trendline)​

​​6) ​Let s now compare IYT ETF to the Mighty SP500 Index on a relative basis. The ratio (Dow Jones Transportation ETF IYT ​to the Mighty SP500 Index ETF SPY) peaked on December 9 2016 and keep making lower highs and lower lows since then. Wee did break the Support Trendline on March 7 2017 and now testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average-green line) on that ratio.  ​(See third chart below)​ .
And looking at Monthly charts on those ratios gives us a better overview. (See fourth and fifth charts below)

​As most Major Stock Indices are still near Weekly High Ever last week and most importantly that are in a tiny correction phase Technical Pattern Phase, the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT ETF) was already in correction mode on a relative basis since December 2016.  (See second + third charts below)

Very few of us realize that in fact, on a Weekly Basis, the DJ Transport is the only Major Stock Market Index who did not break out yet technically speaking.  
​(See sixth chart below - Red Trendline)

The Bulls need absolutely a Weekly close above the Major Support Trendline (that started since June 27 2016 week) on the IYT ETF to confirm the last piece missing for the whole market. Failing to do so should bring a more severe correction phase on the other Stock Indices.  (See sixth chart below - Yellow Trendline)





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Charles Dow
DJ Transport ETF IYT: At Technical Crossroads? $DJT, $SPY #investing #dowtheory #SP500 #dowjonestransport #stocks #transport

Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT
​( Daily Candles )
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Daily RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
over​
​Dow Jones Industrials ​ETF DIA
20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Daily RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ ETF IYT
over​
​SP500 Index ​ETF SPY
20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
over​
​Dow Jones Industrials ​ETF DIA
Monthly RATIO ( Candles )
Dow Jones Transportation ​ ETF IYT
over​
​SP500 Index ​ETF SPY

Dow Jones Transportation ​ETF IYT 
 ​​( Weekly Candles )

Financialiceberg.Com