FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
 August 1 2016 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
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The Situation

​​​​​Already another good month for US Investors as stocks and bonds did well.
As SPY ETF is up +3.6% since the end of June 2016 and TLT ETF +1.9%,
investors have been last month in a Nirvana style of environment.

Not surprising to see with that kind of performance that the ​sentiment index
(​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) is at the ​Extreme Greed Level - 79.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:

1) SPY ETF is at +1.5% from its peak reached on May 20 2015.​​(See first chart below)​
-​​ SPY ETF broke in July the Resistance from a Downtrend Channel but most
importantly, broke ​the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back  

​since December 1 2014 week. ​​​
(See first chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)
Bulls need to protect that trendline at all costs from now on.​
​​​- SPY ETF have seen the lowest Monthly Volume since the mega Bull Trend
began in 2009; it is puzzling me tremendously as in a real breakout, we should
have seen exploding trading volume...​​

2) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at -6.3% from its peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See second chart below)
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Breakdown Trendline (that started back since March 2009) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF). It is a weaker Breakout if we compare to the SPY ETF but I will not be surprise IF it bring some out performance for the Canadian Stock Market at some point the remaining of 2016.  ​​​(See Second Chart Below - Thick Red Trendline- Ellipse)​.

3) US Dollar Index (DXY) tested last week a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started since December 2015 and failed to break. We must realize the the US Dollar is the swing indicator for the US Financial assets as foreigners gets in and out. (See third chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)

​​​​​​​4) TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tested last month a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back since December 2008 from a Rising Wedge; Still unable to break yet.
​ 
​​​​(See fourth chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​

5) XLB ETF (iShares Core Canadian Long Term Bond Index ETF) tested last month the previous Monthly high of February 2015 but failed to close above. It do bring some interest as it gives a higher yield than the TLT ETF and some gutsy investors are willing to take the currency risk...​​​​​(See fifth chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​

​​​6) Gold Futures did a false breakout if we take into account the Major Weekly Resistance Trendline that started back ​on September 5 2011 week. ​​​​(See six chart below - Thick Grey Trendline - Ellipse)​
It was done on a very strong Volume trading environment. (See six chart below - Bottom - Blue Area)

Simply stated, we are again into another wave of yield chasing as investors takes more and more risks (even now including currency risks) to achieve less and less financial return. Central Banks pouring tons of money into the system are bringing a skewed investment risk profile - more risk for less return... Sound familiar?

​​I think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index is the hidden risk here...



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"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks

Monthly Chart ( Candles )
TLT ETF (​ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly Chart
​SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​SPY ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Gold Futures ( GC1 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
 ​​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​US Dollar Index ( DXY )

Monthly Chart
​SPTSX60 Index ( XIU ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​XIU ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Monthly Chart ( Candles )
XLB ETF (​ iShares Core Canadian Long Term Bond Index ETF )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

Financialiceberg.Com