Always consider hidden risks
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IShares 20+ Treasury Bond Fund TLT
IShares SP US Preferred Stocks PFF
SP500 Utilities Sector SRUT
iShares Real Estate ETF IYR
SP500 Financials Sector ETF XLF
BKW Banks Index BKX
Homebuilding Index ISE
My Broken Interest Rate and SP500: a 1994 Scenario ?
Sep 4 ( From Barcharts )
The big difference between 1994 and today is the quantity of debt and the leverage in the system. So even a smaller change of interest rates compare to 1994 can have dire consequences; Bond markets have started to price that but not stocks...
We will go through different sector/product that are recognized as interest rates sensitve.
Observe that Interest rates have alreay broken their multi-year trendlines, but not sensitive sectors stocks...
In recent weeks, interest rates have moved significantly higher since the fear of the Federal Reserve to start their tapering process. On June 19, the Market's Worst Nightmare was confirmed by Bernanke:
"If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year; and if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear."
Since then, the real fear was a 1994 kind of scenario that provoked a dramatic change in market sentiment and
destabilised bond markets. This surprised most observers including the Fed.
IShares iBoxx Corporate Investment Bond Fund LQD
US Treasury bond Futuresprice 30 yr maturity ZBU
The stock market is quite complacent vis-a-vis interest rate risks; the big difference between 1994 and today is the quantity of debt
and the leverage in the system. So even a smaller change of interest rates compare to 1994 can have dire consequences...
In that kind of environment, volatility will increase and be felt sooner than later in the stock market... Especially banks are vulnerable
to that kind of financial shock...
My Broken Interest Rate and SP500: a 1994 Scenario ? $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F, $TLT, $ZN_F, $TBF,$LQD, $BKX, $IYR
iShares MBS Bond ETF MBB