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SP100 Index: When Generals don t Lead
 December 12 2016 ( From TradingView )
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We have been in one of the most Bullish Stock Market ​in history
​since 2009.​ The Mighty SP100 Index (OEF ETF) went from a ​low in March
​2009 ​​of ​32.02 to the high ever on December 9 2016 ​at 100.15, so  rose by a ​
​factor ​​of 3.1 spurred by low interest ​rates and strong buybacks ​from
​US corporations and lately by the Trumpification of Financial Markets.


​In fact, when we broke the Major Resistance of a Daily Wedge Technical ​
​Pattern on ​July 8 2016​, ​​ ​game was over for the Bears on SP100
(Known as
​The Generals) on a short ​term basis. 
​​​(See First Chart Below - Red Trendline)
Now near Resistance of a Rising Wedge (blue Trendlines).

What have been quite surprising is that big capitalization did under perform tremendously in that Bull Up wave lately since the US Election as protectionism themes were factored in...In fact, the top 100 stocks of the SP Index (OEF ETF) is under performing the ​US Total Stock Market (VTIETF) Index since November 9 2016. Looking at a Daily ratio of the SP100 Index over the US Total Market Index, we did break the Support Trendline of a Falling Wedge on a relative basis on November 14 2016. ​(Second chart below - Blue Trendline)
​​
​Same pattern for the NASDAQ: the top 100 stocks (QQQ ETF) is under performing the ​NASDAQ Composite index (ONEQ ETF). Looking at the daily ratio of the NASDAQ 100 Index over the NASDAQ Composite Index, we can clearly observe that we broke a Major Support from a Rising Wedge. (See third chart below)

​​Also, there is a developing strenght among “equal-weight” indexes versus their comparable cap-weighted versions as the equal-weight SP500 Index outperforming tremendously since the US Election. So more stocks is participating to the rally... ​(Fourth chart below)

But the real interesting part is to acknowledge that the Small Capitalization stocks (SP600 Small Cap Index PSCT ETF) is outperforming tremendously the US Total Stock Market Index (VTI ETF) on a relative basis (daily ratio of PSCT over VTI ETF. (See 5th chart below - Blue Trendlines)

​​In Summary, we have now Generals that do not lead the market at all but small capitalization stocks. That tells me a more broad base rally instead of a classic Institutional Investors big cap rally. As the retail investor is chasing aggressively that rally, the CNN Fear and Greed Index reached the Extreme Greed Zone last Friday of 87; I am just wondering how much time til the Bears awaken for a tiny consolidation phase...


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SP100 Index: When Generals don t Lead  $SPY #investing #spy #SP500 

Daily RATIO
SP100 Index​ ETF OEF
over

​US Total Stock Market ETF VTI Index (Candles)

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Daily RATIO
SP500 Equal-Weighted Index​ ETF RSP
over​
​SP500 Index ETF SPY (Candles)
Dailly RATIO
​NASDAQ 100 Index ETF QQQ
over​
​NASDAQ Composite Index ETF ONEQ  (Candles)
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Daily RATIO
SP600 Small Cap Index​ (PSCT ETF)
over​
​US Total Stock Market ETF VTI (Candles)

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Daily Chart
​SP100 Index ETF OEF ( Candles)

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