FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
 March 1 2017 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
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February was a great month for investors for stocks and for bonds in terms
​of performance compare to December as Trumpification of Financial Markets
​was in full swing​; As SPY ETF is up 3.9% in February, ​it ​was ​+1.8% in January 
​and for the  TLT ETF , +1.3% and +0.8% respectively (excluding dividends).

Not surprising to see with that kind of performance that the ​sentiment index
(​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) went from Fear at the beginning
of November​ to ​the ​Greed Level 62 at the end of February.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:
1) SPY ETF is at +13.5% from its previous low reached on November 4 2016,
​not adjusted with dividend payout.
​(See first chart below)​ Still into a Monthly
​Uptrend Channel and made a new high ever in February.​
-​​ SPY ETF broke in February the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that
​started back  
​since October 1 2007. ​​​
(See first chart below - Red Trendline)
Bulls need to protect that Trendline (now become support) at all costs.​
​​​- SPY ETF continue to have very low Monthly Volume trading environment
​since the mega Bull Trend began in 2009; it is puzzling me as in a new high ever, we should have seen exploding trading volume...​​

​2) QQQ ETF (formerly known as "the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock) finally made a Breakout on a Monthly basis back in August from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000!
​QQQ ETF is up +4.3% in February and +14.6% since the previous low on November 4 2016. The Technology Sector finally Out Performing the SP500 Index as the QQQ ETF did make a new high in February and finally broke the Monthly Uptrend Channel Resistance that Bullls need to protect at all costs.
(See second chart below - Yellow Trendline)​

3) The Hang Seng Stock Index closed at the end of February 17.0% below its previous peak reached on April 2015. But the main interesting technical factor, is that the Hang Seng is still lagging tremendously the Mighty SP500 Index and unable to close above the previous Breakdown Monthly Trendline as shown by the third chart below (red trendline).​ China worries...

​​​​
​​4) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at +0.0% from its peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See fourth chart below) Still into a Monthly Uptrend Channel.
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Tops Trendline (that started back since June 2008) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) in January. We are back at that Trendline (now becomes Major Support) and made a Monthly Shooting Star.  ​​​(See Fourth Chart Below - Thick BlueTrendline)​.

5) US Dollar Index (DXY) broke in November 2016 a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started since March 2015 (grey trendline) and reached a level not seen since December 2002!  We are back slightly above the Breakout Trendline. A Weaker US Dollar should be seen as a riskier financial environment for US Financial Assets and still my main risk factor to follow. ​(See fifth chart below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse)

​​​​​​​6) TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) broke in November 2016 a Major Monthly Support Trendline that started back since January 2014 from a Rising Wedge. In a strong dead cat bounce phase.​​​​
​(See six chart below - Blue Trendline)​


​​​7) Gold Futures still into a Major Monthly Wedge Technical Pattern that started back ​on October 2008.
​​​​​(See seventh chart below - Thick Blue Trendlines)​


​8) Oil Futures still within a Monthly tiny Rising Wedge and on strong Price Compression.
(See seventh chart below - Yellow Trendlines)  

Simply stated, the Trumpification of Financial Markets in November 2016 (pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionism bias) repriced violently stocks vs bonds, US Dollar Index vs Gold...

​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index could be the hidden risk here...



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"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks #oil #commodities #risk

Monthly Chart ( Candles )
TLT ETF (​ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

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​SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​SPY ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
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​Gold Futures ( GC1 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
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​US Dollar Index ( DXY )

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​SPTSX60 Index ( XIU ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​XIU ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Financialiceberg.Com
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​NASDAQ 100 Index ( QQQ ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​QQQ ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Monthly Chart
​Hang Seng Stock Index ( Top Panel - Candles )

Financialiceberg.Com
 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Oil Futures ( CL2 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

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