Always consider hidden risks
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
 May 01 2017 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
If you would like to receive our free daily markets updates, please Sign-up

April was a great month for investors for stocks and for bonds in terms
​of performance compare to March as some detail of the tax cut were released
and the French Election risk ​faded​; As SPY ETF is up +1.0% in April, ​it ​was ​-0.3% in March 
​and for the TLT ETF , +1.3% and -0.1% respectively (excluding dividends).

Not surprising to see with that kind of performance that the ​sentiment index
(​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) went from Fear at the beginning
of April 2017​ to ​the ​Neutral Level 50 at the end of April.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:

1) SPY ETF is at +14.2% from its previous low reached on November 4 2016,
​not adjusted with dividend payout.
​(See first chart below)​ Still into a Monthly
​Uptrend Channel and made a new high ever in March.​
-​​ SPY ETF broke in February the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that
​started back  
​since October 1 2007. ​​​(See first chart below - Red Trendline)
​Bulls need to protect that Trendline (now become major support) at all costs.​
​​​- SPY ETF continue to have very low Monthly Volume trading environment
​since the mega Bull Trend began in 2009; it is puzzling me as in a new high
​ever, we should have seen rising trading volume...​​

​2) QQQ ETF (formerly known as "the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock) finally made a Breakout on a Monthly basis back in August from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000!
​QQQ ETF is up +2.7% in April and +19.9% since the previous low on November 4 2016. The Technology Sector is Out Performing the SP500 Index as the QQQ ETF did make a new high in April and broke in February 2017 the Monthly Uptrend Channel Resistance that Bullls need to protect at all costs.
(See second chart below - Yellow Trendline)​

3) The Hang Seng Stock Index closed at the end of April 13.9% below its previous peak reached on April 2015. But the main interesting technical factor, is that the Hang Seng is still lagging tremendously the Mighty SP500 Index and unable to close above the previous Breakdown Monthly Trendline as shown by the third chart below (red trendline).​ China worries...

​​4) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at +1.6% from its previous peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See fourth chart below) Still into a Monthly Uptrend Channel.
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Tops Trendline (that started back since June 2008) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) in January. Bulls need to stay over that Trendline (now becomes Major Support).  ​​​(See Fourth Chart Below - Thick BlueTrendline)​.

5) US Dollar Index (DXY) unable to stay above the Major Monthly Trendline that started since March 2015 (grey trendline). Bulls need to protect the Weekly Support Trendline (from July 2014). A Weaker US Dollar should be seen as a riskier financial environment for US Financial Assets and still my main risk factor to follow. ​(See fifth chart below - Brown Trendline)

​​​​​​​6) TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) broke in November 2016 a Major Monthly Support Trendline that started back since January 2014 from a Rising Wedge. Into a Monthly Uptrend Channel.​​​​
​(See six chart below - Blue Trendline)​

​​​7) Gold Futures still into a Major Monthly Wedge Technical Pattern that started back ​on October 2008.
​​​​​(See seventh chart below - Thick Blue Trendlines)​

​8) Oil Futures broke a Monthly tiny Rising Wedge last Month.
(See seventh chart below - Yellow Trendlines)  

Simply stated, the Trumpification of Financial Markets in November 2016 (pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionism bias) repriced violently stocks vs bonds, US Dollar Index vs Gold... Into Fading Phase...

​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index could be the hidden risk here...



tatisticCode" src="Scripts/stats-tracking.js">
"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks #oil #commodities #risk

Monthly Chart ( Candles )
TLT ETF (​ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

Monthly Chart
​SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​SPY ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Gold Futures ( GC1 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

 ​​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​US Dollar Index ( DXY )

Monthly Chart
​SPTSX60 Index ( XIU ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​XIU ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Monthly Chart
​NASDAQ 100 Index ( QQQ ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​QQQ ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Monthly Chart
​Hang Seng Stock Index ( Top Panel - Candles )

 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Oil Futures ( CL2 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​