FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
 December 1 2016 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
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November was a great month for investors for stocks but not bonds in terms
​of performance compare to October as Trumpification of Financial Markets
​wasin full swing​; As SPY ETF is up 3.7% in November, ​it ​was ​-1.7% in October
​and for the  TLT ETF , -8.3% and -4.5% respectively.

Not surprising to see with that kind of performance that the ​sentiment index
(​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) went from Fear at the beginning
of November​ to ​the ​Greed Level 72 at the end of the month.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:

1) SPY ETF is at +1.2% from its previous peak reached on August 23 2016,
​not adjusted with dividend payout.
​(See first chart below)​ Still into a Monthly
​Uptrend Channel and made a new high ever in November.​
-​​ SPY ETF tested in November the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that
​started back  
​since December 1 2014 week but did not break it yet. ​​​
(See first chart below - Blue Trendline - Ellipse)
Bears need to protect that resistance trendline at all costs.​
​​​- SPY ETF continue to have very low Monthly Volume trading environment since the mega Bull Trend began in 2009; it is puzzling me as in a new high ever, we should have seen exploding trading volume...​​

​2) QQQ ETF (formerly known as "the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock) finally made a Breakout on a Monthly basis back in August from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000!
​The Technology Sector finally lagging to the SP500 Index as the QQQ ETF did not make a new high in November as some major corporations (like Apple) reflect the protectionism politics of Trump.
(See second chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​

3) The DAX Stock Index closed at the end of November 11.2% below its peak ever reached on April 2015.
But the main interesting technical factor, is that the DAX was unable to close above the previous Monthly Breakout Trendline as shown by the third chart below (red trendline).​ Deutsche Bank worries...

​​​​
​​4) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at -2.3% from its peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See fourth chart below) Still into a Monthly Uptrend Channel.
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Breakdown Trendline (that started back since March 2009) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) in August. We are still above that Trendline (now becomes Major Support).  ​​​(See Fourth Chart Below - Thick Red Trendline- Ellipse)​.

5) US Dollar Index (DXY) broke in November a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started since March 2015 (grey trendline) and reached a level not seen since March 2003!  We are testing the .382 Fibonacci Zone at 101.79 (from bottom in March 2008 and peak from July 2001). A Weaker US Dollar should be seen as a riskier financial environment for US Financial Assets. (See fifth chart below - Grey Trendline - Ellipse)

​​​​​​​6) TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) broke in November a Major Monthly Support Trendline that started back since January 2014 from a Rising Wedge.​ ​​​​(See six chart below - Blue Trendline - Ellipse)​

​​​7) Gold Futures was unable for a fourth Month in a row to make a Breakout from a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back ​on September 2011. ​​​​(See seventh chart below - Thick Grey Trendline - Ellipse)​
It was done on a very strong Volume trading environment. (See six chart below - Bottom - Blue Area)

​8) Oil Futures broke in October a Monthly tiny wedge and on strong Price Compression.
(See seventh chart below - Blue + Yellow Trendlines)  

Simply stated, the Trumpification of Financial Markets in November as pro-growth and reflation theme within a protectionism bias repriced violently stocks vs bonds, US Dollar Index vs Gold...

​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index is still the hidden risk here...



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"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks #oil #commodities #risk

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