FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri
 October 3 2016 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
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The Situation

​​​​​September was a bad month for investors for stocks and bonds in terms of
​performance compare to August; As SPY ETF is down 10.1% in September,
​it ​was ​+0.1% in August and for the  TLT ETF , -1.7% and -1.2% respectively.

Not surprising to see with that kind of performance that the ​sentiment index
(​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) went from Greed at the beginning
of September​ to ​the ​Neutral Level - 49 at the end of the month.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:

1) SPY ETF is at +1.2% from its peak reached on May 20 2015.​, not adjusted
with dividend payout.
​(See first chart below)​ Still into a Monthly Uptrend Channel
and tested Support Trendline and rebounded.​
-​​ SPY ETF broke in July the Resistance from a Downtrend Channel but most
importantly, broke ​the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back  

​since December 1 2014 week. ​​​
(See first chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)
Bulls need to protect that trendline at all costs from now on.​
​​​- SPY ETF continue to have very low Monthly Volume trading environment since the mega Bull Trend
began in 2009; it is puzzling me as in a real breakout, we should have seen exploding trading volume...​​

​2) QQQ ETF (formerly known as "the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock) finally made a Breakout on a Monthly basis from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000! The Technology Sector finally catching up to the SP500 Index but the Breakout was on a very low trading Volume environment... 
(See second chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​

3) The DAX Stock Index closed at the end of August 15.2% below its peak ever reached on April 2015.
But the main interesting technical factor, is that the DAX was unable to close above the previous Monthly Breakout Trendline as shown by the third chart below.​ Deutsche Bank worries...

​​​​
​​4) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at -5.1% from its peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See fourth chart below) Still into a Monthly Uptrend Channel.
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Breakdown Trendline (that started back since March 2009) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) in August. We are still above that Trendline (now becomes Support).  ​​​(See Fourth Chart Below - Thick Red Trendline- Ellipse)​.

5) US Dollar Index (DXY) tested in July a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started since December 2015 and failed to break. We are still within that Monthly Falling Wedge. A Weaker US Dollar should be seen as a riskier financial environment for US Financial Assets. (See fifth chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)

​​​​​​​6) TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tested in July a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back since December 2008 from a Rising Wedge; Still unable to break yet.
​ 
​​​​(See six chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​ Now into a Monthly Downtrend Channel.

​​​7) Gold Futures was unable for a third Month in a row to make a Breakout from a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back ​on September 2011. ​​​​(See seventh chart below - Thick Grey Trendline - Ellipse)​
It was done on a very strong Volume trading environment. (See six chart below - Bottom - Blue Area)

​8) Oil Futures are trading within a Monthly tiny wedge and on strong Price Compression.
(See seventh chart below - Blue Trendlines)

Simply stated, we are again into another wave of yield chasing as investors takes more and more risks (even now including currency risks) to achieve less and less financial return. Central Banks pouring tons of money into the system are bringing a skewed investment risk profile - more risk for less return... Sound familiar?

​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index is the hidden risk here...



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"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks #oil #commodities #risk

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​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

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​US Dollar Index ( DXY )

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​SPTSX60 Index ( XIU ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​XIU ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
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​NASDAQ 100Index ( QQQ ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​QQQ ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
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​DAX Stock Index ( Top Panel - Candles )

Financialiceberg.Com
 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Oil Futures ( CL2 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

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