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Nasdaq 100 Volatility: My Canary in the Coal Mine?
​June 12 2017 ( From TradingView )
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​​Financial assets like the SP100 Index (OEF ETF) had a very good ​
​performance ​indeed ​since bottoming out just before the US Election
​on November 4 2016 (+16.3%) as even ​the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ ETF) ​
​joined the party (+23.4%),  ​QQQ ETF is Outperforming the Mighty OEF ETF.
​​It is now back testing the Previous Daily Breakout Trendline.
​​​(See First Chart Below - Top Red Trendline)​
QQQ ETF is also trading within a Daily Rising Megaphone. 
​​(See First Chart Below - Grey Trendlines)​

QQQ ETF is at +11.6% above the 200 DMA ​(Day Moving ​Average) as of the
​close of ​June 9 2017 and OEF ETF is only at +6.8% above it s 200 DMA.​

​​But few of us realize ​the ​strong outperformance of the Nasdaq ​100 Index​ ​compare to the Mighty SP100 Index on a Monthly relative basis since December 2008. ​​(See Second Chart Below - Uptrend Channel)

​​​The market is in favor for the technology stocks over the broad stock market indices lately. As history repeat itself, we must be aware that we reached on that Monthly ratio (Nasdaq 100 Index over SP 100 Index) a level last seen in March 2000! ​​ ​(See Second Chart Below - Red Trendline)

What is quite interesting, is to observe the strong concentration within the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ ETF).
​As only a few big names makes this index (top 5 AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOG makes 41.74% of the weight on the QQQ) compare to only +18.97% for the OEF ETF (top5 AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, JNJ). That concentration within the index is bringing more volatility these days. We did reach the highest relative Volatility (Daily ratio of Nasdaq 100 Index Volatility VXN over the SP 100 Index Volatility VXO since January 24 2007.
​(See Third Chart Below - Blue Line )

What strikes me the most, ​​is that looking at the relative Volatility but taking the SP 500 Index this time (Daily ratio of Nasdaq 100 Index Volatility VXN over the SP 500 Index Volatility VIX), we reached the highest level since January 23 2007!  (See Fourth Chart Below - Blue Line)

​Past occurrences of that spike in Volatility for the Nasdaq 100 Index was the case of broad market consolidation as shown by the SPY ETF at the Bottom Panel of the Fourth Chart Below. W​​e must realize that the last up leg of the market is lead by technology stocks and we must monitor the risks accordingly within our portfolios because of the concentration problem. 

Nasdaq 100 Volatility: My Canary in the Coal Mine?  $COMPQ  #Trading #nasdaq #investing #sp500  #spy #stocks

Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly RATIO ( Candles )
Nasdaq 100 Index 
over
​SP100 Index  


Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
​Daily Chart ( Candles )
Nasdaq 100 Index ETF ( QQQ )
20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​​​

Financialiceberg.Com
​Daily Volatility Ratio Chart ( Blue Line)
Nasdaq 100 Index ( VXN )
over
SP 100 Index ( VXO )​​

​Daily Volatility Ratio Chart ( Blue Line)
Nasdaq 100 Index ( VXN )
over
SP 100 Index ( VXO )​​

​Daily Volatility Ratio Chart ( Top Panel - Blue Line)
Nasdaq 100 Index ( VXN )
over
SP 500 Index ( VIX )​​

SPY ETF ( Bottom Panel )​