SP500 Daily Trading Comments

FINANCIAL ICEBERG

Always consider hidden risks

DAILY TECHNICALS

COT ( Commitment of Traders )

As we can observe on the graph below, Small speculators decreased tremendously their long position of the SP500 the past few weeks
from the longest ever! ( blue line )

Seasonality

And as we can see on the graph below, the Seasonals are turning bullish usually around April 14 for the SP500...

SAMPLE FROM APRIL 25 2014

Seasonalities are turning to a range trade til April 30th. I keep posting
on that because end of April til beginning of May are a strong turning point
in Seasonalities ( and for the market ).

Geopolitical risk are increasing. Will the market decide a risk off Friday
to cut risk going into the week end. I think so...

We tested again yesterday and closed above the crucial level of 1868.
But I think that we will crack it today. For Bulls to stay in control of this
market, we still need not starting to trade below that level.

We must follow the Yen closely. If it start to reverse and trade below
102.00, it can be a first sign of an extended market.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities now for a Range Trade: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Resuming Range Trade ?
2) Market Overbought Short Term: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
3) Defensive Sectors Doing Very Good: The Consumer Staples Sector : Still Outperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday we tested again and rebounded ( on a weaker pattern than the previous day ) on the crucial technical level of 1868. We must stay above for the Bull scenario to unfold...

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1881 level now.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1888 and max 1893 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Already starting to trade below the 1868 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1860 and 1855. My best scenario for today...

IF we break the 1850 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1813 in the next few sessions.

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1813 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1850. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1855.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a range trade stance til April 30.
See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1813 to 1888 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1789 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

The market should trade today between 1860 and 1878.
Expect volatility to be above average.

And Small Speculators started their liquidation process since March 10 from the longest position ever as shown by the chart below....

SP500 Futures Daily M4 - A Risk Off Friday ? - PREMIUM USERS
Apr 25 ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )

Apr 24 Seasonals Still ?

Seasonalities are turning to a bullish stance from a range trade til the
beginning of May.

We tested and closed above the crucial level of 1868 yesterday,
strenghtening the technicals on a short term basis. For Bulls to stay in
control of this market, we still need not starting to trade below that level.

We must follow the Yen closely. If it start to reverse and trade below
102.00, it can be a first sign of an extended market.

May I remind you that this week, a majority of the firms of the SP500 are
publishing their quarterly financial results. Til now, those results were quite good.

My Focus will still be on the Quartely Results, the Yen and the Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities Turning Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Into an Uptrend ?
2) Market Still Bullish But: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
3) Low Volume is Still a Concern: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Back Into a Low Volume Phase ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday we tested and rebounded on the crucial technical level of 1868. We must stay above for the Bull scenario to unfold...

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1881 level now.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1888 and max 1893 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Already starting to trade below the 1868 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1859 and 1853.

IF we break the 1848 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1834 and max 1813 in the next few sessions.

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1813 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1848. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1853.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a bullish stance til the beginning of May. See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1813 to 1888 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1789 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

The market should trade today between 1868 and 1888.
Expect volatility to be average but getting higher through the week...

Apr 23 Complacent Bulls ?

Seasonalities are turning to a bullish stance from a range trade til the
beginning of May.

We broke and closed above the crucial level of 1868. For Bulls to stay in
control of this market, we need not starting to trade below that level.

We will have to follow the Yen. If it start to reverse and trade below
102.00, it can be a first sign of an extended market.

May I remind you that this week, a majority of the firms of the SP500 are
publishing their quarterly financial results. So Volatility will be higher
than last week.

My Focus will still be on the Quartely Results, the Yen and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities Turning Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Resuming Uptrend ?
2) The Yen as a Leading Indicator: SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
3) Volatility Should Rise: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I was expecting a few session in a consolidation before resuming uptrend and break that crucial technical level of 1868. Now already broken, we need to stay above.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1881 level now.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1887 and max 1893 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Already starting to trade below the 1868 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market. Targets then at 1857 and 1853.

IF we break that 1847 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1827 and max 1814 in the next few sessions.

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1814 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1847. A minor support is also being defined by the 20 DMA at 1853.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning to a bullish stance til the beginning of May. See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1814 to 1887 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1789 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

The market should trade today between 1865 and 1881.
Expect volatility to be average but getting higher through the week...

Apr 22 Crucial Technical Level ?

Almost the same as yesterday:
Seasonalities are turning from a bullish stance towards a range trade til
the 23rd of April.

Now, I think we will be into a range trade for a few sessions between the
50 DMA (Day Moving Average) at 1845 and the next huge resistance at 1868.

Failing today to stay above that support level and/or starting to trade
below the 50 DMA at 1845 will put the market in jeopardy.

May I remind you that this week, a majority of the firms of the SP500 are publishing their quarterly financial results. So Volatility will be higher than last week.

My Focus will still be on the Quartely Results and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities from Bullish to Range Trade : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Retail Participants not Aggressive Buyers: ETF s Volume Indicator : Already in Correction Phase ?
3) Indicators Bring Divergence Signal: SP600 : Volume A/D: Divergence ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1814 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1843. A minor support is being defined by the 20 DMA at 1851.

Already starting to trade below the 20 DMA at 1852 will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.

IF we break that 1845 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1827 and max 1814 in the next few sessions.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1868 level.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1876 and max 1885 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning from a bullish stance towards a range trade til the 23rd of April. See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1803 to 1868 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1789 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1751 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

The market should trade today between 1851 and 1868. Expect volatility to be average but getting higher through the week...

Apr 21 Seasonalities my Dear ?

Seasonalities are turning from a bullish stance towards a range trade til
the 23rd of April. So last week was the last chance for Bulls to break above
the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at 1852 ( now at 1851 ) and push
it to max 1868 ( it did trade as high as 1863.75 on April 17 ).

Now, I think we will be into a range trade for a few sessions between the
50 DMA at 1843 and the next huge resistance at 1868.

Failing today to stay above that support level and/or starting to trade
below the 50 DMA at 1843 will put the market in jeopardy.

May I remind you that this week, a majority of the firms of the SP500 are publishing their quarterly financial results. So Volatility will be higher than last week.

My Focus will still be on the Quartely Results and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonalities from Bullish to Range Trade : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) Market last Bullish Move Without Volume: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Not Convinced Yet ?
3) No Break Out for Emerging Financials Yet: SP500 Emerging Financials Near Resistance Trendline ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1814 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1843. A minor support is being defined by the 20 DMA at 1851.

Already starting to trade below the 20 DMA at 1851 will mean to me technical weakness and Bulls are starting to lose control of the market.

IF we break that 1843 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1827 and max 1815 in the next few sessions.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1868 level.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1876 and max 1883 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonalities are turning from a bullish stance towards a range trade til the 23rd of April. See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1803 to 1868 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1789 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1761 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today but grinding higher as the week progress.

The market should trade today between 1851 and 1868. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 17 Congestion Ahead ?

Just a few sessions left before seasonalities turn from a bullish
sequence towards a range trade til the 23rd of April. So it is the last
chance for bulls to prove themselves by breaking the 20 DMA at 1852
and push it to max 1868.

It will be a very difficult challenge for the market as we enter a huge
congestion zone: there is the 20 DMA at 1852, the trendline resistance
that started on March 17 at 1854 ( see amber line on the chart below )
and finally the channel resistance trendline that started on April 14
at 1857.

Failing today to break those resistance levels and/or starting to trade below the 50 DMA at 1841 will put the market in jeopardy.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Last Call for Bullish Seasonalities : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Still Bullish ?
2) Market is near a Short Term Overbought Signal: ETF s Volume Indicator : Near Overbought Zone ?
3) Defensive Sectors Perform Well: SP500 Utilities Sector: New High on XLU ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1815 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1841.

IF we break that 1841 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1821 and max 1815 in the next few sessions.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1852, the 20 DMA.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1862 and max 1868 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonals are turning bullish usually around April 14 til April 18 then followed by a range trade til April 23rd.
See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1784 to 1868 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1784 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1761 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today.

The market should trade today between 1841 and 1857. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 16 More than a Dead Cat Bounce

Yesterday I wrote:
To have a sustain rallye, we need to test, break and have a daily close
above 1836, the 50 DMA. IF so, then we can have in mind the 1851 target ...

We did close above the 50 DMA at 1836 ( now become support at 1838 )
and have already almost reached my target of 1851.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Consumer Stocks.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonality are Turning Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Turning Bullish ?
2) Market is Weak - No Volume: SP500 : Price Volume Trend : Not Convinced Yet ?
3) That Rebound is Fragile: SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Into a Bear Trend ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1815 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye. On top of that, the 50 DMA now become the minor support at 1838.

IF we break that 1838 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1828 and max 1815 in the next few sessions.

To have another bullish impulse, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1851, the 20 DMA.
IF so, then we can have in mind 1862 and max 1868 as targets for the next few sessions ...

Failing on a daily close to be above that 1838 level and break the 1815 level will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1800 to 1784 zone.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonals are turning bullish usually around April 14.
See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1784 to 1868 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1784 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1761 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today.

The market should trade today between 1838 and 1855. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 15 Any Follow Through ?

Yesterday I wrote:
To have a sustain rallye, we need to test, break and have a daily close
above 1836, the 50 DMA. IF so, then we can have in mind the 1851 target ...

We did close above the 50 DMA at 1836 ( now become support at 1838 )
and have already almost reached my tartet of 1851.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Financial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonality are Turning Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Turning Bullish ?
2) Market: Rebound is Weak: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Rebounding from Oversold Territory ?
3) Defensive Sectors Perform Quite Well: The Consumer Staples Sector : Outperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the support trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1815 will become the major short term support level not to trade below anymore for a sustain rallye.

IF we break that 1815 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1807 and 1803 and max 1784 in the next few sessions.

To have a sustain rallye, we need to test, break and have a daily close above 1836, the 50 DMA. IF so, then we can have in mind the 1851 target ...

My expectations for now is a range/consolidation mode (1815/1836) for a few sessions and test that 50 DMA...

Failing on a daily close to be above that 1836 level in the next few sessions and break the 1815 level will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1800 to 1784 zone.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonals are turning bullish usually around April 14.
See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1784 to 1851 ) with average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1784 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1761 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today.

The market should trade today between 1815 and 1836. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 14 Dead Cat Bounce

Last week, on April 10, we broke the 20 and 50 DMA (Day Moving Average)
That was already a bad omen for the stock market.

Now, I do expect now a tiny dead cat bounce and the 1816 level will make
the difference ( on a daily close for sure ) IF there is any follow through.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Internet and Health Care Stocks
Internet and Health Care Stocks can give us at this point in time if we
are in the process of a turnaround or not.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) The Yen Still Leads: SP500 and the Yen: My Failed Break Out Combo ?
2) Market Short Term Oversold: NYSE Advance Decline Indicator : Oversold Territory ?
3) Seasonality are Turning Bullish: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Near Reversal ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the resistance trendline that started on March 7 ( see second chart below ) at 1816 will become the level to reach and test on the Dead Cat Bounce. That resistance level will make the difference between a tiny Dead Cat Bounce ( on a Daily Close ) or a more serious bounce. .

IF we break that 1816 level, we can expect a bigger move towards 1824 and max 1835.

Failing on a daily close to be above that 1816 level will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1800 to 1784 zone.

Another Factor to keep in Mind is that the Seasonals are turning bullish usually around April 14.
See 5th chart below.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1784 to 1855 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1784 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1761 max 1725...

And volatility will be average today.

The market should trade today between 1800 and 1820. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 11 Yesterday I wrote:
The crucial part is to see if today, IF there will be any follow through for
that market. So for now, the 20 DMA at 1856 will be the support not to
break to continue that follow through on the market.

And by breaking that 1856 level, it was a direct go to test the 50 DMA
then at 1832. So both the 20 and 50 DMA were broken yesterday, a quite
bearish set up.

My Focus will still be on the Yen and the Financials

Three factors brang my attention:

1) The Yen Still Leads: SP500 and the Yen: My Failed Break Out Combo ?
2) Market Still Some Downside Risks: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Not Oversold Yet ?
3) Market Ignored that Warning Sign Still: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Divergence Still ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the 50 DMA at 1834 will become the resistance not to break to continue that follow through on the market. Failing to rebound above that level today open the door for a brand new bear market.

IF we break that 1834 level, we can expect a dead cat bounce towards 1838 and max 1844.

Failing on a daily close to be above that 1834 level will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1816 to 1809 zone.

And Breaking the 50 DMA will bring a nasty new bear trend from a correction phase now.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1816 to 1860 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1834 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1816 max 1781...

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1816 and 1844. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 10 Any Follow Through Day ?

Yesterday we had our dead cat bounce towards the 1863 target level
( high was 1866.5 ). The crucial part is to see if today, IF there will be
any follow through for that market.

My Focus will still be on the Financials because I think the Follow
Through will be decided on the performance of that sector...

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market back to Short Term Overbougt: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
2) Market Complacent Again: VIX and SP500: Back to Complacency Level ?
3) Financials Crucial at this Phase: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Weakening Sentiment ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

So for now, the 20 DMA at 1856 will be the support not to break to continue that follow through on the market.

The levels to break on the upside are 1868 and 1872. Having a daily close above 1872 will give another bullish inpulse towards 1876 and 1893.

Failing today to close above that zone will tell me a huge risk of of a retest of the 20 DMA ( at 1856 ) and break it again... And back to the 50 DMA...

And then, the 50 DMA ( now at 1832 ) is still at play.

Breaking 1832 on a daily close will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1780. And Breaking the 50 DMA will bring a nasty new bear trend from a correction phase now.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1832 to 1892 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1816 max 1780...

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1856 and 1872. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 9 My 20/50 DMA Ping Pong Story ?

Yesterday was technically speaking, a very interesting day.
We did test almost the 50 DMA ( then at 1829 ) and rebounded from
that level. Either is a dead cat bounce or a more bigger move will be
decided later with the test of the 20 DMA.

We re playing ping pong between those two levels right now.

My Focus will be on the Financials.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market Still in Risk Mode: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Still Risk On ?
2) Market Expect Normal Behavior: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SKEW Tumbling ?
3) Divergence Appearing: SP500 Financials and VIX: Divergence ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday, we almost tested the 50 DMA ( then at 1829 - the low yesterday was 1830.75 ) and rebounded from that level. That was for me a bullish sign.

Now, I expect a dead cat bounce towards the 20 DMA ( at 1856 ) max 1863 and thereafter a ping pong game between the 20 and 50 DMA.

What will make the difference between a dead cat bounce to a bullish scenario is IF today we do close above that 20 DMA ( 1856 ). If so, then the next big level to reach ( and break ) will be 1868/1872 zone .

Breaking 1831 on a daily close will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1784. And Breaking the 50 DMA will bring a nasty new bear trend from a correction phase now.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1831 to 1892 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1831 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1784 max 1740...

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1841 and 1863. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 8 My 50 DMA ?

Yesterday I wrote:
Now, expect a dead cat bounce towards 1868 max 1873...
This scenario is good as long as we do not go lower than 1850.

Then, after breaking the 20 DMA yesterday, it tells me that the next
target for the real test will be the 50 DMA ( now at 1829 ).

Breaking that level will mean that we re not in a correction mode
but starting a new bear market.

My Focus will be on the Internet Stocks and Financials.

My Focus will be on the Internet Stocks and Financials.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market Shows its Weakness: Russell 2000, DJ Industrial and SP500: Small Capitalization Underperforming ?
2) Retail still Involve: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Still Buying ?
3) Macro Technicals still Bearish: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still in a Bear Mode ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Since we broke yesterday the 1850 level, I will stick to my technical levels, not totally convinced of the next scenario, but think the test of the 50 DMA prevail.

Either we have the dead cat bounce scenario by breaking the 1848 level and testing the 20 DMA at 1856.
A daily close above 1856 will put us back in bullish mode towards 1868 max 1873...

Or we re going to test the 50 DMA at 1829, and IF we break it or not will unfold the next big leg on the market.
My main scenario for now.

Breaking 1829 on a daily close will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1784. And Breaking the 50 DMA will bring a nasty new bear trend from a correction phase now.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1829 to 1892 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1829 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1784 max 1740...

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1829 and 1848. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 7 Testing Bull Convictions

Last Friday I wrote:
For the Bulls Paradise to keep going on, we must stay above 1873
and still have today a close above than the previous high of 1882 made
on April 3 to show strenght. I did not.

Breaking 1873 and 1868 was very bad technicals. The only tiny positive
sign is that we tested the 20 DMA ( at 1858 ) and closed above.

Now, expect a dead cat bounce towards 1868 max 1873...
This scenario is good as long as we do not go lower than 1850.
The real follow through of the market will be upon his behavior on
Tuesday if it close or not above 1873...

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Technical Indicators Short Term Oversold: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Territory ?
2) The Yen Back in Play: SP500 and the Yen: My Failed Break Out Combo ?
3) Internet Stocks Decimated : Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): Capitulation Phase ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I still think we can expect a dead cat bounce towards 1868 max 1873...
The real follow through of the market will be upon his behavior on Tuesday if it close or not above 1873...
This scenario is good as long as we do not go lower than 1850.

For the Bulls Paradise to be back and show that they are in control, we should close above 1873 on Monday AND stay above on Tuesday ( trendline that started on March 7 - see amber line chart below ).

Failing to do so and closing below the 20 DMA on Tuesday will tell me, we saw a short term the top and going quickly to the 50 DMA ( at 1828 )

So, for the April 8 scenario, 1873 broken level on the upside should give us in the next few sessions 1880 max 1892 for now.

Breaking 1858 on a daily close will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1828 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold. Breaking it will bring a nasty new bear trend.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1828 to 1892 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1850 and 1873. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 6 Special Update ?

I decided to do a special update because of the volatility last Friday.

Last Friday I wrote:
For the Bulls Paradise to keep going on, we must stay above 1873
and still have today a close above than the previous high of 1882 made
on April 3 to show strenght. I did not.

Breaking 1873 and 1868 was very bad technicals. The only tiny positive
sign is that we tested the 20 DMA ( at 1858 ) and closed above.

Now, expect a dead cat bounce towards 1868 max 1873...
The real follow through of the market will be upon his behavior on Tuesday if it close or not above 1873...

My Focus will be on the Internet Stocks and Financials .

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Technical Indicators Short Term Oversold: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Territory ?
2) The Yen Back in Play: SP500 and the Yen: My Failed Break Out Combo ?
3) Internet Stocks Decimated : Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): Capitulation Phase ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Now, expect a dead cat bounce towards 1868 max 1873...
The real follow through of the market will be upon his behavior on Tuesday if it close or not above 1873...

For the Bulls Paradise to be back and show that they are in control, we should close above 1873 on Monday AND stay above on Tuesday ( trendline that started on March 7 - see amber line chart below ).

Failing to do so and closing below the 20 DMA on Tuesday will tell me, we saw a short term the top and going quickly to the 50 DMA ( at 1828 )

So, April 8 1873 broken level on the upside should give us in the next few sessions 1880 max 1892 for now.

Having a daily close below 1873 will tell me a test again the 20 DMA ( 1858 ) were the next leg will of the trading action will be decided.

Breaking 1858 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1828 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold. Breaking it will bring a nasty new bear trend.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1828 to 1892 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1828 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1858 and 1876. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 4 NFP Skewness ?

Today NFP Skewness. Expectations are for +206k ( whisper is stronger ),
all of that because of weather distorsions. So if a strong number, it will
be as expected, if we have a weak number, the market is at risk.

Since the break out of the 1868 level, Bulls are in full control.
So NFP will be a test today if Bulls make a new high and keep the market
at those new levels.

For the Bulls Paradise to keep going on, we must stay above 1873
and still have today a close above than the previous high of 1882 made
on April 3 to show strenght.

My Focus will be on the Yen and Industrial Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Technical Indicators Divergence: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Major Divergence ?
2) Financials on the Expensive side: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX
3) Industrial Stocks gives hope for the Bulls: The Industrial Sector : Outperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Today Big Support and resistance are for the NFP earthquake: 1868 and 1905. The same game plan as yesterday...

For the Bulls Paradise to continue and show that they are in control, we should not start to trade below 1873 again today ( trendline that started on March 7 - see amber line chart below ). And to show their convition, to impress me, they need a close above yesterday at 1882.

IF ever we have a daily close below 1868, then for me, it will be a failed break out.

So, April 1st 1868 broken level on the upside should give us in the next few sessions 1892 max 1905 for now.

Having a daily close below 1868 will tell me a test of the 20 DMA ( 1858 ) were the next leg will of the trading action will be decided.

Breaking 1858 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1826 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1826 to 1905 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1868 and 1895. Expect volatility to be above average...

Apr 3 Since the break out of the 1868 level, Bulls are in full control.
Tomorrow NFP will be a test today if Bulls make a new high and keep
the market at those new levels.

For the Bulls Paradise to keep going on, we must stay above 1873
and still have today a close above than the previous high of 1883 made
on April 2 to show strenght.

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Technical Indicators Bullish: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk On Full Throttle ?
2) Complacency is Back: VIX and SP500: Back to Complacency Level ?
3) Consumers Stocks Still not in the Game: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Divergence Still ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the Bulls Paradise to continue and show that they are in control, we should not start to trade below 1873 again today ( trendline that started on March 7 - see amber line chart below ). And to show their convition, to impress me, they need a close above yesterday at 1883.

IF ever we have a daily close below 1868, then for me, it will be a failed break out.

So, April 1st 1868 broken level on the upside should give us in the next few sessions 1890 max 1897 for now.

Having a daily close below 1868 will tell me a test of the 20 DMA ( 1858 ) were the next leg will of the trading action will be decided.

Breaking 1858 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1826 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1826 to 1897 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1826 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1876 and 1890. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 2 D-Day for the Bulls Paradise ?

Yesterday I wrote:
Here, all our attention must be on the 1868 level. IF broken AND stay
above plus a daily close above is quite bullish kind of technical pattern.
It can reach 1876 and 1881 quickly in the next few sessions and open
the door for 1895 in a few weeks.

For the Bulls Paradise to keep going on, we must stay above 1873
and close above than the previous high of 1880.5 made on March 7
to show strenght.

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Technical Indicators Bullish: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk On Full Throttle ?
2) Stability is Back: SP500 Financials and VIX: Still Bullish ?
3) SKEW Behavior Atypical: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: SP500 at the Top Without SKEW Spiking ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the Bulls Paradise to continue and show that they are in control, we should not start to trade below 1873 ( trendline that started on March 7 - see amber line chart below ). IF ever we have a daily close below 1868, then for me, it will be a failed break out.

So, yesterday s 1868 broken on the upside should give us in the next few sessions 1893 max 1899 for now.

Having a daily close below 1868 will tell me a test of the 20 DMA ( 1857 ) were the next leg will of the trading action will be decided.

Breaking 1857 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1825 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1825 to 1899 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1825 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

And volatility will be average today and abate quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1873 and 1893. Expect volatility to be average...

Apr 1 Back to the Magic Level ?

So very little action in terms of portfolio rebalancing at end of the month,
quite surprising.

Now, we re back at the magic level of 1868, which at this juncture, can
be broken and put bulls back into fire. That is a KEY level.

The 20 DMA ( at 1856 ) will become support and should not be broken
for that scenario to unfold. The Yen is still key here.

My Focus will be on the Yen and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Short Term Indicators Bullish: NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Into Oversold Territory ?
2) The Yen will Still be Key: SP500 and the Yen: Will the SP500 Catch Up with the Yen ?
3) ETFs AD Volume is Finally Picking Up: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Finally Rebounding ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Here, all our attention must be on the 1868 level. IF broken AND stay above plus a daily close above is quite bullish kind of technical pattern. It can reach 1876 and 1881 quickly in the next few sessions and open the door for 1895 in a few weeks.

Failing to have a daily close above will tell me a retest of the 20 DMA ( 1856 ) were the next leg will of the trading action will be decided.

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1876, max 1881.

Starting to trade below 1856 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1845 max 1824 for now...

Breaking 1856 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1824 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1824 to 1876 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1824 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1876.

And volatility will be average today and abate quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1856 and 1876. Expect volatility to be average...

March 31 Tricky Month End ?

So last Friday as expected, a test of the 50 DMA ( then at 1855 ) and fade
was the trade. Today is the end of the month and used to be very tricky
because of portfolio rebalancing.

Also, last day for the Yen adjustment; YEN seasonals are the strongest
of the year and will add to the volatility today. Usually, a stronger
Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will be on the Yen and Financials.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Short Term Indicators Bullish: SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Territory ?
2) Volatility Should Abate After Month End: The VIX/ Gold Correlation and SP500: Lower Volatility Ahead ?
3) Volume is Finally Picking Up: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Building Up ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Today, we will have the battle and timing between the last day for the Yen adjusments ( who is usually slightly bearish for US Equities ) and Domestic Portfolio Rebalancing who should be tiny Bearish also for US Equities and also relief buying at the opening from no geo-political surprise yet.

So the pattern will be a gringind price pattern at the opening for few hours ( reaching and testing the 1861/1867 ) zone and going into the afternoon, pressure building up and back toward 1849.

Observe on the first chart below that we are still into a downtrend channel that started on March 21 with 1828 support and 1861 as resistance.

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1876.

Starting to trade below 1849 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1845 max 1841 for now...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1876.

Breaking 1849 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1824 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1824 to 1868 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1824 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1876.

And volatility will be above average today and abate quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1849 and 1868. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 28 Still 20/50 DMA Battle ?

The battle will still be between that 20 DMA level (Day Moving Average)
(1855) and the 50 DMA now at 1823...

I am very surprise of the low volatility and trendless behavior near the
end of the month for the Yen, rarely seen that...

YEN seasonals are the strongest of the year and will add to the volatility
this week. Usually, a stronger Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will Still be on the Yen and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Long Term Indicators Bearish: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still in a Bear Mode ?
2) Consumer Stocks Still Gives Us a Warning Sign: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Divergence ?
3) Market Shifting to Defensive Sectors: SP500 Utilities Sector: Outperform SP500

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the remaining of the week, the Yen will have a tremendous impact on the financial markets. End of the year for Japanese Financials, they tend to rapatriate some foreign assets ( sell US bonds and Equities ) and back home for the picture on March 31 ( buying the Yen and some JGBs ).

That should add to volatility and some pressure getting nearer March 31.

Observe on the first chart below that we are still into a downtrend channel that started on March 21 with 1831 support and 1863 as resistance.

Same scenario as yesterday: We will have another dead cat bounce to test the 20 DMA at 1855. Remaining scenario will depend if we break or not that level ( I don t think so ) before resuming downtrend.

Starting to trade above 1855 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1863.

Starting to trade below 1841 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1836 max 1832 for now...

Having a daily close above 1855 will open the door to a retest of 1863, no more .

Breaking 1841 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1823 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1823 to 1863 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1823 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1855 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1863.

And volatility will be above average today and picking up quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1839 and 1855. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 27 My Broken 20 DMA ?

Yesterday we broke into a violent downtrend market the 20 DMA at 1855
( Day Moving Average ). That bring into play a brand new range.
The next battle will be between that 20 DMA level (1855) and the 50 DMA
now at 1823...

Sound like a broken record but: This week is crucial to follow the Yen.
YEN seasonals are the strongest of the year and will add to the volatility
this week. Usually, a stronger Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will Still be on the Yen and Financials.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Long Term Indicators Bearish: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bearish ?
2) Market Shifting to Defensive Sectors: The Consumer Staples Sector : Starting to Outperform SP500
3) Surprisingly SKEW back to Normal: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Tail Risk Tumbling ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the remaining of the week, the Yen will have a tremendous impact on the financial markets. End of the year for Japanese Financials, they tend to rapatriate some foreign assets ( sell US bonds and Equities ) and back home for the picture on March 31 ( buying the Yen and some JGBs ).

That should add to volatility and some pressure getting nearer March 31.

We will have another dead cat bounce to test the 20 DMA at 1855. Remaining scenario will depend if we break or not that level ( I don t think so ).

Starting to trade above 1855 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1862 and max 1868.

Starting to trade below 1841 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1836 max 1832 for now...

Having a daily close above 1855 will open the door to a retest of 1868, no more .

Breaking 1841 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1823 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1823 to 1868 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1823 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1855 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1868 for now.

And volatility will be above average today and picking up quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1841 and 1855. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 26 Did I say Yen Driven Market ?

Still into that same consolidation / range trade scenario.
We are still within that battle between that Major Resistance Trendline
at 1868 and the 20 DMA now at 1855...

This week is crucial to follow the Yen.
YEN seasonals are the strongest of the year and will add to the volatility
this week. Usually, a stronger Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will be on the Yen and Financials.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Back near the Expensive Zone (1868): NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Overbought Zone ?
2) Yen will Bring Volatility: SP500 and the Yen: Yen Seasonals Will Bring Volatility to SP500 ?
3) Retail Participants Jumping Ship?: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Surprisingly Weakening ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the remaining of the week, the Yen will have a tremendous impact on the financial markets. End of the year for Japanese Financials, they tend to rapatriate some foreign assets ( sell US bonds and Equities ) and back home for the picture on March 31 ( buying the Yen and some JGBs ).

That should add to volatility and some pressure getting nearer March 31.

We had our dead cat bounce ( with a high of 1864.5 - on target for me ). Now, a retest of 1868 will fail again like we saw on March 21...

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.

Starting to trade below 1855 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1848 max 1841 for now...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs ( 1890 and 1895 ) .

Breaking 1855 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1841 MAX 1822 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1822 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today but picking up quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1855 and 1868. Expect volatility to be average...

March 25 Follow the Yen My Dear ?

We are still within that battle between that Major Resistance Trendline
at 1868 but broke yesterday the 20 DMA now at 1854...

This week is crucial to follow the Yen.
YEN seasonals are the strongest of the year and will add to the volatility
this week. Usually, a stronger Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will be on the Yen and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) PVT confirm the last downtick: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Weakening ?
2) Good Performing Sector Under Pressure: The Healthcare Sector : Broke the 50 DMA ?
3) Small Capitalization on a Strong Trend: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Break Out of the Double Top ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

For the remaining of the week, the Yen will have a tremendous impact on the financial markets. End of the year for Japanese Financials, they tend to rapatriate some foreign assets ( sell US bonds and Equities ) and back home for the picture on March 31 ( buying the Yen and some JGBs ).

That should add to volatility and some pressure getting nearer March 31.

Now, we may have today a dead cat bounce towards 1858 max 1864 before resuming downtrend.

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.

Starting to trade below 1845 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1841 max 1834...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs ( 1890 and 1895 ) .

Breaking 1845 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1822 ( 50 DMA ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1822 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today but picking up quickly through the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1845 and 1864. Expect volatility to be average...

March 24 Near the Magic Level Again ?

Last Friday I wrote:
We are on a 3rd attempt to break the 1868 level. Having a weekly close
above that level will open the door to new highs...

We are still within that battle between that Major Resistance Trendline
at 1868 and the 20 DMA now at 1855...

Volatility and Choppiness will prevail into 2014 as expected.
YEN seasonals are the strongest of the year and will add to the volatility
this week. Usually, a stronger Yen favors weaker US equities...

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Volatility will prevail: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) YEN Seasonals will add to Volatility : Japanese Yen (COT): Strongest Seasonals of the Year ?
3) DJ Transports is in for a Defensive Stance: DJ Transport and Industrials and SP500: Transport Outperform ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

SO the bulls were not totally in control last Friday, unable to keep above the 1864 level.
Now, the 1868 level is again in play; to turn more constructive in the market, I need that we close above that level...

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.

Starting to trade below 1855 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1852 max 1845...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs ( 1890 and 1895 ) .

Breaking 1855 ( 20 DMA ) will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1845 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1824 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1824 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today but picking up quickly trhough the week.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning slightly bearish til the beginning of April... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1855 and 1868. Expect volatility to be average...

March 21

Break Out ?

Earlier in the week I wrote:
We may be into a Regime Change from 2013. This week will be key for
that scenario to unfold; failing to be back above 1867 will be the answer
or closing below 1837...

We are on a 3rd attempt to break the 1868 level. Having a weekly close
above that level will open the door to new highs...

I still have problems with that rally; Consumer Stocks are not giving us
a good performance. The old school says, a rally without consumer
stocks is a fragile market... But price IS the key...

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials are pushing that market: SP500 Financials Weekly: Break Out ?
2) A rally without Consumer Stocks: The Consumer Staples Sector : Oversold vs SP500 ?
3) Rally Participation Rate is good: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: 21 DMA Still Rising ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We finally broke the 1868 level in pre-opening; this is very significant to me in terms of technicals.
For me , if the bulls are really in control, We Should Not trade Below 1864 anymore in the next few sessions...

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.

Starting to trade below 1864 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1856 max 1852...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs ( 1890 and 1895 ) .

Breaking 1864 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 20 DMA ( 1852 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1821 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1821 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1864 and 1875. Expect volatility to be average...
March 20 Molotov Cocktail ?

We had already uncertainties associated with geo-politics ( Ukraine )
and Hidden Financial Stability with China ( Defaults on Corporate Side ),
now we must add US Monetary Policy to it. A Dangerous Molotov
Cocktail for the Market.

By Dropping the Unemployment Level as a treshold and Putting a more
precise Time Work gap between the end of QE and interets rate hikes,
the FOMC have put themselves into a dangerous situation...

We may be into a Regime Change from 2013. This week will be key for
that scenario to unfold; failing to be back above 1867 will be the answer
or closing below 1837...

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financials and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Long Term Signals now Bearish: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Turned Bearish ?
2) Market Still Complacent: VIX and SP500: Average Volatility ?
3) US Financials Holding Well Considering FOMC: SP500 Financials: Start Underperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday we tested the 1868 level and failed to break; this is significant to me in terms of technicals.
The next test will be a retest of the 20 DMA and the resistance trendline at closing. Closing below today will accelerate the downtrend.The 20 DMA is at 1850 and the resistance trendline at 1852.

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.
Starting to trade below 1845 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1842 max 1836...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs.

Breaking 1842 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1820 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1820 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1820 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1842 and 1856. Expect volatility to be average...

March 19 Near a Major Test ?

Yesterday I wrote:
I think the market trade by too much excess and it will not have any
follow through today.

I was wrong; Putin comments put strenght into financial markets.
We should note that the move was done on very little volume and
pre-opening mainly...

We may be into a Regime Change from 2013. This week will be key for
that scenario to unfold; failing to be back above 1867 will be the answer
or closing below 1837... Today will be the test IF we re able to get over
the resistance level of 1867.

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financials and Internet Stocks.
Three factors brang my attention:

1) Small Capitalizaton on Fire: Russell 2000, DJ Industrial and SP500: Strong Small Capitalization ?
2) Not a Strong Rebound from Emerging Financials: SP500 Emerging Financials Near Major Support Line ?
3) Anemic Volume on the Bull Trend is a concern: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Divergence ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday we cleared all three resistance levels; Those were the 20 DMA at 1845.6 ( now at 1846.7 ) and the bottom of March 12 and 1846.75, the low of March 12 and the resistance trendline from Feb 20 and March 3 at 1846. Now those levels become support: The 20 DMA is at 1848 and the resistance trendline at 1850.

Starting to trade above 1868 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1881.
Starting to trade below 1855 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1850 max 1846...

Having a daily close above 1868 will open the door to a retest of 1880.50 and new highs.

Breaking 1850 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1820 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1820 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1820 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1868 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881 for now.

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1856 and 1875. Expect volatility to be average...

March 18 Regime Change ?

Yesterday I wrote:
We are in a dead cat bounce from Friday s : need to clear three major
technical levels to switch towards a more sustainable uptrend.
Even if those levels were cleared, I think the market trade by too much
excess and it will not have any follow through today.

We may be into a Regime Change from 2013. This week will be key for
that scenario to unfold; failing to be back above 1867 will be the answer
or closing below 1837... Real Commodities (Copper, Oil are turning South)
and New Band Range Rules for the Yuan is a desperate move from Chinese to avoid capital leaving the country...

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Long Term Trend Turning Negative: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Turned South ?
2) Retail Participants not Agressive Buyers : ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Finally Rebounding ?
3) Anemic Volume is a concern: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Bull Trend Without Volume ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are rebounding from markets risks that seems abating ( short term relief ): I need that we clear 3 levels for that move to be sustained.
Those are the 20 DMA at 1845.6 ( now at 1846.7 ) and the bottom of March 12 and 1846.75, the low of March 12 and the resistance trendline from Feb 20 and March 3 at 1846. To go from A real dead cat bounce towards a more sustainable uptrend, we will need to break those levels AND stay over to reach 1852 and max 1859.

Even if those levels were cleared, I think the market trade by too much excess and it will not have any follow through today. IF I am wrong, we should not trade below 1843 for that bullish scenario to continue.

Starting to trade above 1861 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1868 and max 1875.
Starting to trade below 1843 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1837 max 1832...

We started a new downtrend channel that started on March 7 with 1821 as support and 1861 as resistance.

Breaking 1832 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1820 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1820 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1820 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1861 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1868 first and max 1875 for now.

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1843 and 1855. Expect volatility to be average...

March 17 Seesaw Markets ?

The Ukrainian vote is a temporary relief: tensions will persists and
China problems are still there. Expect still a lot of volatility.

We are in a dead cat bounce from Friday s : need to clear three major
technical levels to switch towards a more sustainable uptrend.

My Focus will be on the Financials and Consumer Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Still expect volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Financials are behaving well: SP500 Financials Weekly: Still Above Major Support Trendline ?
3) Consumer Stocks must follow: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Divergence ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

We are rebounding from markets risks that seems abating ( short term relief ):
I need that we clear 3 levels for that move to be sustained.

Those are the 20 DMA at 1845.6 and the bottom of March 12 and 1846.75, the low of March 12 and the resistance trendline from Feb 20 and March 3 at 1846. To go from A real dead cat bounce towards a more sustainable uptrend, we will need to break those levels AND stay over to reach 1852 and max 1859.

Starting to trade above 1863 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1868 and max 1875.
Starting to trade below 1836 will be a warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1832 max 1824...

We started a new downtrend channel that started on March 7 with 1824 as support and 1863 as resistance.

Breaking 1824 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1817 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1817 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1817 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1759...

Only a daily close above 1863 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1868 first and max 1875 for now.

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1823 and 1850. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 14 Damage Report ?

Yesterday I wrote:
Starting to trade below 1865 will be the third warning sign of technical
weakness coming to 1853...

From a Bullish Hammer on March 12 to a Bearish Engulfing Pattern on
March 13, a rarely seen event... China is still a major concern
and geo-political risks are not abating...

It will be a tricky Friday. Usually we should see a dead cat bounce after
that kind of move but the question is: will they want to hold risk
through the week end?

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financial and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) SP500 bring a Bullish Hammer followed by a Bearish Engulfing Candle: see first chart below ( ellipse )
2) Follow the Yen: The Yen/Nikkei Connection: Correction Phase ?
3) Consumer Stocks not Frozen Anymore: The Consumer Staples Sector : Start Outperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Price action yesterday was like a perfect storm were Bulls were too complacent and long the market, still.
Today, an expected dead cat bounce will test two tecnical levels, that IF broken, we should not trade back below ( because it will mean to me technical weakness ). Those are the 20 DMA at 1852.4 and the bottom of March 12 and 1853.75, the low of March 12. A real dead cat bounce will be to break those levels AND stay over to reach 1857 and max 1860.

Starting to trade above 1870 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1875 and max 1887.
Starting to trade below 1843 will be the fourth warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1832...

We started a new downtrend channel that started on March 7 with 1843 as support and 1870 as resistance.

Breaking 1843 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1825 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1825 to 1887 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1825 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

Only a daily close above 1870 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1887 for now.

And volatility will be above average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1840 and 1860. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 13 My Bullish Hammer ?

Market was under tremendous pressure on China news yesterday
( export data, copper stories,... ) but the Mighty SP500 rebounded
strongly at the close to create a bullish hammer.We exceeded my target
of 1857 ( we did 1853.75 )...

I don t think we will proceed directly upwards but will be a choppy
phase. I need a daily close today above 1875 to confirm that bullish
scenario, unless it will be only a dead cat bounce.

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financial and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) SP500 price action bring a Bullish Hammer: see first chart below ( ellipse )
2) Not too much Technical Damage for now: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: 21 DMA Still Rising ?
3) Financials are Still in the Game: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: The Grinding Phase ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Bulls are back quickly on their feet and the bullish hammer yesterday will give them confidence.
I need a daily close above 1875 today to confirm that bullish hammer. Starting to trade below 1865 will be a concern to me... Then back for retest of 1854?

Starting to trade above 1881 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1895 and max 1901.
Starting to trade below 1865 will be the third warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1853...

We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1873 support and 1907 as resistance.
We started a new downtrend channel that started on March 7 with 1849 as support and 1875 as resistance.

Breaking 1853 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1843 and max the 50 DMA ( 1824 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1824 to 1887 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1824 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

Only a daily close above 1881 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1894 first and max 1901 for now.

And volatility will be average today.

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1865 and 1879. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 12 The China Syndrome ?

I was expecting at least a few days before some new headline risks hit
the tape. I was wrong. China new default news and copper hitting new
lows made the headlines yesterday that bring then some pressure on
the Mighty SP500.

We will have to follow carefully those events. For the time being,
Emerging Financials are holding well considering the bad economic
news from China - The China Syndrome. SP500 is at risk of slippage.

And yesterday I wrote: Starting to trade below 1866 will be the first
warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1857...

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financial and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Emerging Financials are holding well for now: SP500 Emerging Financials Still Above Support Line ?
2) PVT Show Some Weakness: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Weakening Trend ?
3) Yen Back to Normal Trendiness: SP500 and the Yen: Back to Same Trend ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went from Consolidation mode to correction mode with the price action and broken levels yesterday ( 1866 )... Bulls are losing control quickly and high beta stocks turned south violently yesterday, telling me the not so convinced bulls for holding risks. Volume activity level start to be a concern.

Starting to trade above 1879 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1895 and max 1901.
Starting to trade below 1856 will be the second warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1843...

We are not anymore into an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1870 support and 1902 as resistance.
We started a new downtrend channel that started on March 7 with 1856 as support and 1874 as resistance.

Breaking that 1856 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1843 and max the 50 DMA ( 1824 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1824 to 1887 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1824 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

Only a daily close above 1879 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1894 first and max 1901 for now.

And volatility will be above average today because of tChina events and he geo-political uncertainties...

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1856 and 1874. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 11 Time vs Price ?

Market will do a consolidation phase more in time than in prices as we
saw often in that bull market. Only a geo-political unknow news or
China hidden financial problems can risk a slippage for the Mighty
SP500 at this point.

Non-Farm Payrolls was a nice surprise and was against all odds compare
to the previous economic data. Market will check the next big one
( US Retail Sales ) on Thursday the 13th!

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks and the US Dollar Behavior.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials Stocks are Helping the Market: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Grinding Pattern ?
2) Time vs Price Consolidation Pattern: SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Neutral Territory ?
3) Retail Participants less Aggressive Buyers Lately: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Correction Mode ?
Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market is in Consolidation mode and will spend some time this week that will give technical indicators to make it back from overbought conditions last week into neutral stance this week. Bulls are still in total control here but are complacent. Volume activity level start to be a concern.I think we will go through a consolidation period were it can take a pattern of more time vs price correction for now.

Expect a range ( kind 1866 to 1884 ) small consolidation phase near the 1866 zone before resuming uptrend with another new high in place later in the week or next week.

Starting to trade above 1882 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1895 and max 1901.
Starting to trade below 1866 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1857...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1866 support and 1899 as resistance.

Breaking that 1857 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1823 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1823 to 1891 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1823 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

Only a daily close above 1882 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1894 first and max 1901 for now.

And volatility will be above average today because of the geo-political uncertainties...

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1866 and 1882. Expect volatility to be average...

March 10 Post Euphoria Phase ?

Last Friday was the best set up for Bulls. Even with the potential
weather impact on economic numbers, the Non-Farm Payrolls was on
the strong side of expectations.

But who wanted to hold risks through the week end ? I think we will
have a full risk on/off environment through the week with a lot of volatility

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks and the VIX Index.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Market Still Bullish but need a consolidation period: NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Still Bullish ?
2) Expect Higher Volatility coming from Internet Stocks: Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): My 16 Candles ?
3) Finally Consumer Stocks joined the party: SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Break Out ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market reached new high again last Friday but started to be shaky on who wants to hold risk positions through the week end with geo-political risks around us. Bulls are still in total control here but are complacent. I think we will go through a consolidation period were it can take a pattern of more time vs price correction for now. Expect a range ( kind 1866 to 1882 ) small consolidation phase near the 1866 zone before resuming uptrend with another new high in place later in the week.

Starting to trade above 1882 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1894 and max 1901.
Starting to trade below 1866 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1853...
Expect volatility to stay high despite the bullish sentiment of the market, especially with Ukraine and China...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1862 support and 1895 as resistance.

Breaking that 1853 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1822 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1822 to 1891 ) with above average volatility for now.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1822 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

Only a daily close above 1882 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1894 first and max 1901 for now.

And volatility will be above average today because of the geo-political uncertainties...

May I remind you that seasonals are turning bullish til the third week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1866 and 1882. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 7 The Weather Experiment ?

Today s D-Day with the Non-Farm Payrolls. All bad economic numbers
have been blamed on weather. I think if we have a number above 70k
but below 120k, the partcipants will blame the weather factor anf IF
they are able to make new high on that, it will show the strenght of that
Bull trend...

The surprise for me will be an average number ( kind of 130k ) and a
pullback of the market...

Below 70k, I think the market is at risk of a tiny pullback to 1857.

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks and the VIX Index.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials on Fire: SP500 Financials Weekly: Still Above Major Support Trendline ?
2) Expect Higher Volatility: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Consumer Stocks not Bullish: The Consumer Staples Sector : Still Underperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market reached new high again yesterday without any pullback. Bulls are in total control here but are complacent. I still do not exclude a small consolidation phase near the 1857 zone before resuming uptrend with another new high in place.

Starting to trade above 1881 can quickly put the Bulls on full control again and squeeze it towards 1891 and max 1899.
Starting to trade below 1870 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1857...
Expect volatility to stay high despite the bullish sentiment of the market, especially with the Non-Farm Payrolls today...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1857 support and 1891 as resistance.
Now, we can expect a small consolidation towards max 1857 ( IF 1870 broken ) before resuming uptrend.

Breaking that 1857 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1821 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1808 to 1891 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1808 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1881 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1891 first and max 1899 for now.

And volatility will be above average today because of the Non-Farm Payrolls...

Having a daily close below 1832 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1857 and 1891. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 6 All Systems GO ?

Two days ago I wrote:
Here, for the market to push, we need absolutely the Financials to
start to perform better. Already, a good sign, even if the volume is low,
is the outperformance of Industrials. And still today, the Financials will
be the key of that rally and also the Russell2000

Well, Bulls fire on all cylinders, Financials, Small Capitalization and
Internet Stocks were contributing to the push - All Systems Go? Still?
All bad economic numbers have been blamed on weather: what about
the Non-Farm Payroll Then?

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks and Russell2000.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials back on track: SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: The Grinding Phase ?
2) Price Volume Trend Confirm a Grind: SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Still Grinding ?
3) No more Divergence on that Ratio: SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Divergence Break Out ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market reached new high without any pullback, like a runaway train. Bulls are in total control here but are complacent. I still do not exclude a small consolidation phase near the 1860 zone before resuming uptrend with another new high in place.

Starting to trade above 1880 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1895.
Starting to trade below 1868 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1860...
Expect volatility to stay high despite the bullish sentiment of the market.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1854 support and 1887 as resistance.
Now, we can expect a small consolidation towards max 1860 ( IF 1868 broken ) before resuming uptrend.

Breaking that 1854 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1820 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1807 to 1880 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1807 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1880 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1887 first and max 1895.

And volatility will be average today but will pick up for the Non-Farm Payroll...

Having a daily close below 1832 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1860 and 1880. Expect volatility to be average...

March 5 Financials My Dear ?

Yesterday I wrote:
Here, for the market to push, we need absolutely the Financials to
start to perform better. Already, a good sign, even if the volume is low,
is the outperformance of Industrials.

And still today, the Financials will be the key of that rally and also the
Russell2000
...
The Small Capitalization are on fire, final euphoria phase or a new trend
for 2014; tough call honestly...

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks and Russell2000.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Financials back on track: SP500 Financials: Finally Outperforming SP500 ?
2) Small Capitalization, the other Bull Factor: Russell 2000: Strong Small Capitalization ?
3) Emerging Financial Holding well for now: SP500 Emerging Financials Still Above Support Line ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market yesterday stayed well above my technical level of 1848. Bulls are in total control here but are complacent. I do not exclude a small consolidation phase near the 1859 zone before resuming uptrend with another new high in place.

Starting to trade above 1875 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1891.
Starting to trade below 1859 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1851...
Expect volatility to stay high despite the bullish sentiment of the market.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1851 support and 1883 as resistance.
Now, we can expect a small consolidation towards max 1859 before resuming uptrend.

Breaking that 1841 will mean to me that we will go directly towards 1832 and max the 50 DMA ( 1818 ) were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1806 to 1875 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1806 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1832 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1875 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1885 first and max 1891.

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up at the beginning of the week......

Having a daily close below 1832 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1859 and 1875. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 4 Russian Roulette ?

Market is playing the Russian Roulette these days. I expect still
some volatility into the market and today is a good test if Bulls
can keep the market above the 1848 mark.

Here, for the market to push, we need absolutely the Financials to
start to perform better. Already, a good sign, even if the volume is low,
is the outperformance of Industrials.

My Focus will be on the Financial Stocks (domestic +Intl).

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Need Financials to Perform Better: SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Unconvinced ?
2) Industrials are a good sign for the market: The Industrial Sector : Starting to Outperform SP500 ?
3) Russian Roulette is Still ON: Ruble Rises With Stocks as Russia Ends Exercises

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market tested the critical level yesterday ( at 1836 ) and rebounded to close above - a good sign indeed. Now, the market to convince me need to stay above 1848. Failing to do so today will mean to me technical weakness and a retest of the 1836 level ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1867 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1880.
Starting to trade below 1848 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1836...
Expect volatility to stay high despite the Russian Roulette that seems to stabilize.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1848 support and 1880 as resistance.
Also take note of a huge wedge - 1843 and 1860 are the levels to watch ( second chart below - amber lines ).

Breaking that 1836 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1817 ) and max 1804 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1804 to 1867 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1804 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1804 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1867 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1880.

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up at the beginning of the week......

Having a daily close below 1804 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1844 and 1860. Expect volatility to be above average...

March 3 Complacent Market ?

Not much changed in terms of level compare to yesterday s preliminary
daily report that I sent.

In face of many geo-political uncertainties ( Ukraine ) and financial
instability ( China ), the participants involved into the Mighty SP500 are
the least we can say, have a very complacent behavior.

My Focus will be on Emerging Markets Currencies and the Financial
Stocks (domestic +Intl).

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Expect Volatility to increase: SP500 Financials HVol: Complencency ?
2) China Hidden Financial Instability: Currency of China Continues to Decline
3) Small Spec Longest Ever: E-Mini SP500 Futures: Small Speculators the Longest Ever ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market broke the high ever ( at 1856.5 ) and gapped up on a direct path towards 1866.5 with a late pullback due to month end rebalancing. Now, the market can still try to test the lowest level did on Feb 28 ( 1845.25 ) and accelerate if broken back towards 1836 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1867 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1881.
Starting to trade below 1843 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming to 1836...
Expect volatility to increase tremendously with gaps into the market.
Watch for signs of contagion towards Emergings Markets Currencies...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1843 support and 1876 as resistance.

Breaking that 1836 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1815 ) and max 1803 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1803 to 1867 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1803 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1803 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1867 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1875 first and max 1881.

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up at the beginning of the week......

Having a daily close below 1803 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1794 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1829 and 1850. Expect volatility to pick up tremendously...

Feb 28 Month End Experiment ?

Already month end.

We should expect a pullback in stocks because of the huge difference in
performance between SP500 and Fixed Income in the month of February
in a rebalancing behavior of portfolio managers.

My Focus will be on the Yeb and the Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Expect Volatility to increase: VIX and SP500: Low Volatility = Complacency ?
2) Market Reaching Near a Sell Zone: NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Near Overbought Zone ?
3) The Yen Back into Play: SP500 and the Yen: Disconnect ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1857 with a late pullback above the previous high of Dec 31 at 1846.5. Now, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1856.75 ) and fail back towards 1839 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1857 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1871.
Starting to trade below 1839 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming...
Today, we will have the month end effect. Pressure is expected especially near the end of the trading session.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1839 support and 1872 as resistance.

Breaking that 1839 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1814 ) and max 1802 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1802 to 1857 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1802 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1802 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1857 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1863 first and max 1871.

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1802 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1789 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1829 and 1855. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 27 Battle of the Bull(ge) ?

Yesterday I wrote:
I think today is the last call for the bulls to show that they are in control
of the market. Failing to retest the high of Feb 24 ( 1856.75 ) or make a
new high today will mean that they re loosing strenght and momentum...

Only speculative sectors like the internet stocks are pushing the market
to the bullish side. And we had on Feb 26 a Shooting Star Pattern on
the ETF Internet Fund, a very bearish sign...

My Focus will be on the Financials and the Internet Stocks and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Expect Volatility to increase: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Internet Stocks on the Speculative Side: Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): Shooting Star ?
3) The Yen Back into Play: The Yen/Nikkei Connection: Consolidation ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1857 with a late pullback below the previous high of Dec 31 at 1846.5. For me , technically speaking was a reject of the bull run . Now, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1856.75 ) and fail back towards 1836 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1857 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1871.
Starting to trade below 1836 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming...
Today will be the day were we will test the Bulls Confidence, a kind of the Battle for the Bull(ge), financially speaking...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1836 support and 1868 as resistance.

Breaking that 1836 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1813 ) and max 1802 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1802 to 1857 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1802 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1802 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1840 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1851 first and max 1857. ( We did it on Feb 24 with a close at 1846 and completed the bull sequence at 1857 )

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1802 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1789 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1829 and 1852. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 26 Last Call

I think today is the last call for the bulls to show that they are in control
of the market. Failing to retest the high of Feb 24 ( 1856.75 ) or make a
new high today will mean that they re loosing strenght and momentum...

Only speculative sectors like the internet stocks are pushing the market
to the bullish side. Big capitalization are underperforming small ones and
is telling me with the internet stock that we are near the final phase
of speculation...

My Focus will be on the Financials and the Small Capitalization.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Expect Volatility to increase: The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Internet Stocks on the Speculative Side: Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): To Infinity and Beyond ?
3) Big capitalization underperforming small ones: Russell 2000, DJ Industrial : Strong Small Capitalization ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1857 with a late pullback below the previous high of Dec 31 at 1846.5. For me , technically speaking was a reject of the bull run . Now, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1856.75 ) and fail back towards 1832 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1857 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1871.
Starting to trade below 1841 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1832 support and 1865 as resistance.

Breaking that 1832 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1811 ) and max 1801 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1801 to 1857 ) with above average volatility for now.

The 1801 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1801 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1840 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1851 first and max 1857. ( We did it on Feb 24 with a close at 1846 and completed the bull sequence at 1857 )

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1801 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1789 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1836 and 1857. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 25 Unconvinced ?

Yesterday I wrote:
But I think Bulls will do another attempt to make new highs and fail again.

I was wrong; the market did traded as high as 1856.75. But the most
interesting part for me, is that the bulls failed to have a higher close
compare to Dec 31 at 1846.5.

The other observation is that defensive sectors ( like the utilities ) are
performing very well in a bull market compare to the Mighty SP500
and they should not. On top of that, we are back with a lower volume
in E-Mini SP500 compare to last year. That tells me that the bull
are not so convinced about that uptrade.

My Focus will be on the Emerging Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Option market telling us to expect an abnormal return profile: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Tail Risk Spiking ?
2) Utilities performing well: SP500 Utilities Sector: Outperform SP500 ?
3) A Bull Run with lower volume: SP500 Volume Last Year and Now: Bull Trend Without Volume ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1857 with a late pullback below the previous high of Dec 31 at 1846.5. For me , technically speaking was a reject of the bull run . Now, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1856.75 ) and fail back towards 1828 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1857 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1871.
Starting to trade below 1835 will be the first warning sign of technical weakness coming...

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1828 support and 1861 as resistance.

Breaking that 1828 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1809 ) and max 1800 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1800 to 1857 ) with volatility for now.

The 1800 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1800 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1840 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1851 first and max 1857. ( We did it on Feb 24 with a close at 1846 and completed the bull sequence at 1857 )

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1800 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1789 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1832 and 1850. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 24 Shy Bulls

The market is consolidating after a failed attempt to break the
1844 / 1846.5 zone again. Market is back again with weird signal from
the SKEW ( see below ), COT small speculators positions on the E-Mini
SP500 Futures and divergence on the ETFs advance/decline volume ratio.

But I think Bulls will do another attempt to make new highs and fail again.

My Focus will be on the ETFs and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Option market telling us to expect an abnormal return profile: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Tail Risk Spiking ?
2) COT small speculators positions: E-Mini SP500 Futures: Small Speculators the Longest Since June 2012 ?
3) ETFs advance/decline volume ratio: SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Major Divergence ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1844 without a pullback. Now, I think, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1846.5 ) and fail back towards 1825 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1847 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1857.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 13 with 1825 support and 1857 as resistance.

Breaking that 1825 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1809 ) and max 1799 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1798 to 1846 ) with volatility for now.

The 1799 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1798 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1840 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1851 first and max 1857. ( We failed again on Feb 21 with a close at 1834.25 )

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1799 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1789 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1825 and 1844. Expect volatility to pick up...
Feb 21 All or None Market !

The market changed again quickly from full correction to full risk on
mode sentiment. I think it will continue through 2014 that kind of
behavior. We are near the high ever on E-Mini SP500 futures and if we
break it, bulls will push it to the moon.

But I think we will do an attempt and fail again.
Still some factors that concerns me. Real economy sectors ( Transports,
Retail ) are performing poorly. The strong sectors ( Internet stocks,
biotech ) are in a bubble territory...

My Focus will be on the DJ Transports and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonality are not friendly anymore: SP500 Seasonality Trend
2) Internet Stocks are pushing the whole market: Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): To Infinity and Beyond ?
3) Retail Sector doing poorly: The Consumer Staples Sector : Still Underperforming SP500 ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1837 without a pullback or a pause. Now, I think, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1846.5 ) and fail back towards 1826 ( my main support level for now ).

Starting to trade above 1847 can quickly put the Bulls on full control and squeeze it towards max 1856.

We are still within an uptrend channel that started on Feb 10 with 1829 support and 1856 as resistance.

Breaking that 1826 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1808 ) and max 1798 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1798 to 1846 ) with volatility for now.

The 1798 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1798 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1837 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1847 first and max 1856. ( We failed again on Feb 20 with a close at 1836.25 )

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1798 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1781 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1826 and 1847. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 20 Houston, We Have a Problem !

The market changed quickly from full risk on mode and there still a few
things that concerns me. We almost tested the high ever yesterday
and tumbled after that... A perfect Technical Scenario for me...

Still the seasonality are not friendly anymore (see factors below).
Dow Jones Transports Disagree with the last uptrade and Technical
Indicators are near overbought conditions...

And Large Speculators decreased tremendously their position and
small speculators increased it at record pace. Last time it did happen
was in Sept 2013: the market corrected by almost 4% in the next 3 weeks
( see 3rd chart below ).

My Focus will be on the DJ Transports and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonality are not friendly anymore: SP500 Seasonality Trend
2) Dow Jones Transports Disagree with the last uptrade:
SP500 , Dow Jones Industrials and Transports : Houston, We Have a Problem !
3) Technical Indicators are near overbought conditions: SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Territory ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Yesterday I wrote:
The market went on a direct path towards 1824 and 1838 without a pullback or a pause. Now, I think, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1846.5 ) and fail back towards 1825 ( my main support level for now ).

Breaking that 1825 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1807 ) and max 1797 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold. ( A correction in a bull market or back within a more severe correction, usually called bear market! ) For now, we are in a correction in a bull trend.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1797 to 1846 ) with volatility for now.

The 1797 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1797 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1837 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1847 first and max 1859.

And volatility will prevail and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1797 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1781 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1815 and 1830. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 19 Still From Tailwind to Headwind

Still From Tailwind to Headwind

Not much change from yesterday s view.

The market is in full risk on mode but a few things concerns me.
Now the seasonality are not friendly anymore (see factors below).
Dow Jones Transports Disagree with the last uptrade and Technical
Indicators are near overbought conditions... If the market have to test the
high ( 1846.5 ), it s today or a lot later ( March? ).

Sectors doing well are Internet stocks and Healhtcare and the ones doing
poorly are Industrials and Transports ( real economy )...

And Large Speculators decreased tremendously their position and
small speculators increased it at record pace. Last time it did happen
was in Sept 2013: the market corrected by almost 4% in the next 3 weeks ( see 3rd chart below ).

My Focus will be on the DJ Transports and Internet Stocks.

My Focus will be on the DJ Transports and Internet Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonality are not friendly anymore: SP500 Seasonality Trend
2) Dow Jones Transports Disagree with the last uptrade: DJ Transport and Industrials and SP500: Sell Signal ?
3) Technical Indicators are near overbought conditions: SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Short term Overbought ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

The market went on a direct path towards 1824 and 1838 without a pullback or a pause. Now, I think, the market can still try to test the highest level ever ( 1846.5 ) and fail back towards 1825 ( my main support level for now ).

Breaking that 1825 will mean to me that we will go directly towards the 50 DMA ( 1806 ) and max 1796 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold. ( A correction in a bull market or back within a more severe correction, usually called bear market! )

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1796 to 1846 ) with volatility for now.

The 1796 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1796 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a bullish scenario...

Only a daily close above 1846.5 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1860 first and max 1864.

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a lot lower than the few sessions but average and will tend to pick up going into the week......

Having a daily close below 1796 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1781 max 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1825 and 1846. Expect volatility to pick up...

Feb 14 Resilient Market

Yesterday I wrote : My first target was reached quickly on Feb 12
at 1824 (it did 1823.25) before resuming downtrend as expected...
The market is back into a consolidation phase that started with the
Nikkei and the Yen (again). We should expect here a tiny pullback
to the 50 DMA at 1803 ( it did trade at 1802 ) and if broken max 1793
for now...

We are still within that kind of market but with new levels now:
we can test 1829 max and resume downtrend to test again the
50 DMA now at 1804. The market is in full risk on mode but a few
things concerns me.

My Focus will be on the Yen and Russell 2000.

Three factors brang my attention:

1) Tail Risk is abating: SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Tail Risk Abating ?
2) The DJ Transport and Russel don t validate that last uptrade: Russell 2000 vs SP500: Double Top ?
3) Financials are back into overbought territory: Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Overbought Zone ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I will honest with you , here a very tough call. But I think the market can exceed a little bit my main resistance level of 1824 ( to max 1829 for now ) and resume downtrend to a retest of 1804 were it will make all the difference for the next scenario to unfold.

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1793 to 1834 ) with volatility for now.

We reached quickly the 1824 target: now a tiny pullback is expected towards the 50 DMA at 1804 and if broken max 1794...

The 1794 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1794 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario...

Only a daily close above 1824.5 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1838 first and a retest of the high 1846.5 from the consolidation scenario expected here.

So the next big resistance is 1824.5.

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a lot lower than the few sessions but average......

Having a daily close below 1794 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1769 max 1754...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1804 and 1829. Expect average volatility...

Feb 13 Consolidation Phase

My first target was reached quickly on Feb 12 at 1824 (it did 1823.25)
before resuming downtrend as expected...

The market is back into a consolidation phase that started with the
Nikkei and the Yen (again). We should expect here a tiny pullback
to the 50 DMA at 1803 and if broken max 1793 for now...

My Focus will be on the Yen and DJ Transport.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Back with the Nikkei correction:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: Consolidation ?
2) DJ Transport Disagree Here:
DJ Transport and Industrials and SP500: Sell Signal ?
3) Volatility Index is pricing again Complencency:
VIX and SP500: Average Volatility ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1775 to 1824 ) with volatility for now.

We reached quickly the 1824 target: now a tiny pullback is expected towards the 50 DMA at 1803 and if broken max 1793...

The 1793 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 2nd chart below ).

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1793 will bring us back towards a nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario...

Only a daily close above 1824.5 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1835 first and a retest of the high 1846.5 from the consolidation scenario expected here.

So the next big resistance is 1824.5.

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a lot lower than the few sessions but average......

Having a daily close below 1793 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a major correction mode and open the door to a quick 1769...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1803 and 1820. Expect average volatility...

Feb 12 Runaway Train

Two days ago I wrote:
Stock market took a revenge over the bears and rallied. What was
striking that it was done on high volume, usually typical of a bear
trend. But the most interesting part is that the weekly candle
is a bullish hammer. See second chart below.

The market didn t stop at all at the congestion zone ( 1791 to 1807 )
that started on November 25 til December 19 2013 as shown by the
first chart below ( see ellipse ) and exceeded my target range
(1801 and 1810).

My Focus will be On Financials and Retail Stocks and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market Still in Bullish Mode:
NASDAQ McClellan Indicator and SP500: Still Bullish ?
2) Dead Cat Bounce on Emerging Financials:
SP500 Emerging Financials Rebounding from Support Line ?
3) But Consumer Stocks Still Struggle:
SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Unconvinced ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I still expect a new wide trading range ( kind of 1775 to 1824 ) with volatility for now.

But having on Feb 10 a daily close above 1790 will open the door for a quicker reach of the 1801 level first then 1809. ( we did close at 1794.75 ). The 1790 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 3rd chart below ).

For me, only a daily close above 1810 will tell me that instead of the congestion zone ( 1791 to 1810 ) were we can spend a few sessions, will be a direct and quicker go towards 1824 max 1835. ( It did on Feb 11 )

At 1818 at time of writing, the market can consolidate for a few sessions and pullback to test the 50 Day Moving Average at 1803 before resuming uptrend.

Only a daily close above 1824.5 will tell me that another strong bullish wave is in place to reach quickly 1835 first and a retest of the high 1846.5.

So the next big resistance is 1824.5.

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a lot lower than the few sessions but above average......

Having a daily close below 1803 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a tiny correction mode and open the door to a quick 1792...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1803 and 1824. Expect average volatility...

Feb 11 Mind the Congestion Zone

Yesterday I wrote:
Stock market took a revenge over the bears and rallied. What was
striking that it was done on high volume, usually typical of a bear
trend. But the most interesting part is that the weekly candle
is a bullish hammer. See second chart below.

But now, we are back within a congestion zone ( 1791 to 1807 ) that
started on November 25 til December 19 2013 as shown by the first
chart below ( see ellipse ). The market may continue to climb, but it
will be more of a grind, especially between 1801 and 1810.

My Focus will be On Financials and Retail Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Consumer Stocks Still Struggle:
The Consumer Staples Sector : Bottoming Out ?
2) Strong Dead Cat Bounce in Financials:
Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Overbought Zone ?
3) Retail Participants in the Stock Market Back Strongly:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Rebounding Strongly ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

I think that last Friday, we exceeded my level of 1787 ( back then ) and Monday Feb 10 will be the answer to that. I still expect a wide trading range ( kind of 1754 to 1810 ) with volatility for now.

I wrote on Feb 7: A daily close above 1787 will mean to me that we will be back into a bullish mode and trade max 1809 max and resume downtrend after ... ( We did close at 1793.50 ). And Yesterday, we had the expected pullback ( my target was 1784 and we did 1786 ).

Now, we are coming within the congestion zone were the market will slow its progression and be more of a grind: the market will play ping pong between 1788 and 1810...

But having on Feb 10 a daily close above 1790 will open the door for a quicker reach of the 1801 level first then 1809. ( we did close at 1794.75 ). The 1790 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 3rd chart below ).

For me, only a daily close above 1810 will tell me that instead of the congestion zone ( 1791 to 1810 ) were we can spend a few sessions, will be a direct and quicker go towards 1824 max 1835.

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a lot lower than the few sessions but above average......

Having a daily close below 1791 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a tiny correction mode and open the door to a quick 1782...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1791 and 1810. Expect average volatility...

Feb 10 The Stock Market Olympics

Stock market took a revenge over the bears and rallied. What was
striking that it was done on high volume, usually typical of a bear
trend. But the most interesting part is that the weekly candle
is a bullish hammer. See second chart below.

That doesn t mean that volatility is excluded. There is still turmoil
in the Emerging Markets and have to be reminded that 2014
will be choppiness compare to 2013 who was trendiness in terms of
market price action....

My Focus will be On Financials and Retail Stocks.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Tail risk start to abate:
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Expect Abnormal Behavior ?
2) Nikkei did not went back over major resistence trendline:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: Rebound ?
3) Only a rebound for Consumers Stocks:
SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Dead Cat Bounce ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Like I wrote earlier, in 2014, market will shift quickly between bull and bear sentiments and will be tough in terms of convictions. We must stay focus on technicals and need more patience...

I think that last Friday, we exceeded my level of 1787 ( back then ) and Monday Feb 10 will be the answer to that. I still expect a wide trading range ( kind of 1754 to 1809 ) with volatility for now.

I wrote on Feb 7: A daily close above 1787 will mean to me that we will be back into a bullish mode and trade max 1809 max and resume downtrend after ... ( We did close at 1793.50 ).

But before, I expect a tiny pullback towards 1784. Starting to trade below and having a daily close below that level will mean to me technical weakness...

Now, we can have a few sessions into an extended consolidation phase were the market will play ping pong between 1778 and 1809...

But having on Feb 10 a daily close above 1790 will open the door for a quicker reach of the 1801 level first then 1809. The 1790 level come from a major trendline that started Nov 8 2012 ( see 3rd chart below ).

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a bit lower than the few sessions but above average......

Having a daily close below 1784 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a tiny correction mode and open the door to a quick 1768...

May I remind you that seasonals are for a range trade til mid-February and after that in a correction mode til the first week of March... See 5th chart below.

The market should trade today between 1784 and 1801. Expect above average volatility...

Feb 7 Casino Day

Yesterday I wrote:
I think we can go into consolidation mode for a few sessions.
A daily close above 1757 will mean to me that we will be back into
an extended consolidation mode and trade max 1768 and resume
downtrend after... The concern I have is having rebounded stronger
than I expected before the Casino Day ( Non Farm Payroll ).

My Focus will be On Financials and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Emerging Financials Consolidating Near Major Support:
SP500 Emerging Financials Near Support ?
2) Mart Still Quite Volatile:
SP500 Financials HVol: Extreme Volatility ?
3) Small Capitalization Underperforming:
Russell 2000 vs SP500: Double Top ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Having a close yesterday above the 1761 means to me that we are going from a bear mode to an extended consolidation phase.

Now, we can have a few sessions into an extended consolidation phase were the market will play ping pong between 1754 and 1787...

Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a bit lower than the few sessions but above average......

A daily close above 1787 will mean to me that we will be back into a bullish mode and trade max 1809 max and resume downtrend after ...

Having a daily close below 1754 will break all the hopes from the bulls and going back into a bear mode and open the door to a quick 1716...

The market should trade today between 1754 and 1787. Expect above average volatility...

Feb 6 Consolidation Scenario

I think we can go into consolidation mode for a few sessions.
The risk is more balanced at this stage, and here 1728 becomes
crucial as support and 1761 as resistance...
Breaking that level will open the door to 1633, and the market
is really not prepared for that scenario...

My Focus will be On Consumers Stocks and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Yen is Consolidating as the SP500:
SP500 and the Yen: Same Pattern ?
2) Market priced a lot of fear:
SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Consolidation Mode ?
3) Retail Participants are back into the market:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Rebounding ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Breaking the 1761 and the 1754 level on Feb 3 was for me a surprise in a sense that in one day, we broke all the major supports that was holding that market in a correction mode. Now, bears can claim that we entered a new phase and say: Houston, we've had a problem here. Now entering a new bear market zone: we must still stay now under 1761 for that scenario to unfold.

Now, we can have a few sessions into a consolidation phase were the market will play ping pong between 1737 and 1757...

The risk is more balanced at this stage, and here 1728 becomes crucial as support and after 1716...
Please take a look at the second chart below, and you ll see how that 1728 level, coming from a major trendline support that started in June 2013 , is crucial at this point.

Breaking those 2 levels will open the door to 1633, and the market is not prepared for that scenario...
Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a bit lower than the few sessions but above average...... Lower Financials Vol replaced by Internet Stocks...

But if we start to trade below 1728, then direct drop towards 1716, the next support level.

Having a daily close below 1728 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1716...

A daily close above 1757 will mean to me that we will be back into an extended consolidation mode and trade max 1768 and resume downtrend after ...

The market should trade today between 1732 and 1754. Expect above average volatility...

Feb 5 Consolidation Scenario

I think we can go into consolidation mode for a few sessions.
The risk is still tilted to the downside, and here 1728 becomes
crucial as support...
Breaking that level will open the door to 1633, and the market
is really not prepared for that scenario...

My Focus will be On Consumers Stocks and Foreign Currencies.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Volatility will prevail:
The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Consumer Stocks can gives us a clue about the next big wave:
SP500 Consumer Discretionary: Listen to Consumers ?
3) Financials are in a dead cat bounce mode:
Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Dead Cat Bounce ?

Back to the technical levels now. Disclaimer

Breaking the 1761 and the 1754 level on Feb 3 was for me a surprise in a sense that in one day, we broke all the major supports that was holding that market in a correction mode. Now, bears can claim that we entered a new phase and say: Houston, we've had a problem here. Now entering a new bear market zone: we must still stay now under 1761 for that scenario to unfold.

Now, we can have a few sessions into a consolidation phase were the market will play ping pong between 1732 and 1754...

The risk is still tilted to the downside, and here 1728 becomes crucial as support and after 1716...
Please take a look at the second chart below, and you ll see how that 1728 level, coming from a major trendline support that started in June 2013 , is crucial at this point.

Breaking those 2 levels will open the door to 1633, and the market is not prepared for that scenario...
Market will trade in a more balance way... And volatility will prevail, a bit lower than the few sessions but above average......

But if we start to trade below 1728, then direct drop towards 1716, the next support level.

Having a daily close below 1728 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1716...

A daily close above 1754 will mean to me that we will be back into a dead cat bounce mode and trade max 1761 and resume downtrend after ...

The market should trade today between 1732 and 1754. Expect above average volatility...

Feb 4 Houston, we've had a problem here

Yesterday I wrote:
The risk is still tilted to the downside, and here 1761 becomes
crucial as support and after 1754...
Breaking those 2 levels will open the door to 1729, and the market
is not prepared for that scenario...

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Emerging Financials Near a Major Support:
SP500 Emerging Financials Near Support ?
2) Volatility Starting Finally the Implied Volatility of the Market:
VIX and SP500: Near the Panic Zone ?
3) Indicators start to signal that the worst is over:
SP500: Ratio % Stocks Above50/200 DMA: Near the Low ?

Back to the technical levels now.

Breaking the 1761 and the 1754 level on Feb 3 was for me a surprise in a sense that in one day, we broke all the major supports that was holding that market in a correction mode. Now, bears can claim that we entered a new phase and say: Houston, we've had a problem here. Now entering a new bear market zone: we must still stay now under 1761 for that scenario to unfold.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, and here 1728 becomes crucial as support and after 1719...
Please take a look at the second chart below, and you ll see how that 1728 level, coming from a major trendline support that started in June 2013 ), is crucial at this point.

Breaking those 2 levels will open the door to 1633, and the market is not prepared for that scenario...
Market will trade heavy still... And volatility will prevail...
Dead Cat Bounce Expected here to max 1754 after resuming downtrend.
But if we start to trade below 1728, then direct drop towards 1719, the next support level.

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a bear mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1754 and we will trade towards 1728 max 1719...

Having a daily close below 1728 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1754 will mean to me that we will be back into a consolidation mode and trade max 1761 and resume downtrend after ...

The market should trade today between 1728 and 1754. Expect above average volatility...

Feb 3 New Month New Trend ?

I know I may sound like a broken record, but two things here:
- Follow the Yen my dear friend (SP500)
- Seasonality near of turning slightly bearish

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Financials broke their weekly support trendline:
SP500 Financials Weekly: My Broken Major Support Trendline ?
2) Market still trade Risk Off:
SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk Off Continue to Prevail ?
3) Seasonality:
SP500 Seasonality Trend

Seasonality is for a slighltly bearish market after the 3rd of February. But the whole picture seems to me a choppy trendless market for the first two weeks of February and then a decline: see 4th chart below.

Back to the technical levels now.

Breaking the 1783 level on Jan 24 was for me coming from a correction in a bull market to now entering a new bear market zone: we must still stay now under 1785 for that scenario to unfold.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, and here 1761 becomes crucial as support and after 1754...
Breaking those 2 levels will open the door to 1729, and the market is not prepared for that scenario...
Market will trade heavy still... And volatility will prevail...
But if we start to trade below 1761, then direct drop towards 1754, the next big support level.

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a bear mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1785 and we will trade towards 1767 max 1754...

Having a daily close below 1761 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1785 will mean to me that we will be back into a consolidation mode and trade max 1801 and resume downtrend after ...

We are still within a nasty downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1762 support and 1800 resistance.
We have on top of that, a new downtrend channel that started on Jan 27 with 1760 support and 1797 as resistance...

The market should trade today between 1760 and 1785. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 31 Friday the 13 oupps 31 ?

Volatility will continue into the market. Political and financial
instabilty in the Emerging Markets and China will continue to be
felt into the SP500. May I remind you that around 15% of SP500
earnings comes from Asia!

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Then Yen good indicator of Financial Markets:
SP500 and the Yen: Same Pattern ?
2) Volatility Everywhere:
The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
3) Seasonality:
SP500 Seasonality Trend

End of the month is near and it will bring even more volatility into the market. It s been awhile the stocks underperformed bonds for a whole month. Portfolio rebalancing will add to the already volatile market.
SP500 year to date: -2.93%. IEF ETF ( 7 year US Treasury ): +2.66%

So on one side, pressure on Emerging Markets and on the other side, seasonality turning bullish til Feb 3rd and end of the month portfolio adjustments tell me one thing: more volatility...

Back to the technical levels now.

Breaking the 1783 level was for me coming from a correction in a bull market to now entering a new bear market zone: we must still stay now under 1784 for that scenario to unfold.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, but tailwinds may change the course of the market near closing the session.
Can still have A Dead Cat Bounce at the end of the day if 1767 not broken: so between 1778 to max 1783.
But if we start to trade below 1767, then direct drop towards 1754, the next big support level.

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a bear mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1784 and we will trade towards 1767 max 1754...

Having a daily close below 1767 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1784 will mean to me that we will be back into a consolidation mode and trade max 1801 and resume downtrend after ...

We are still within a nasty downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1765 support and 1802 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market resistance trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1828 level.

The market should trade today between 1760 and 1785. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 30 My Bearish Engulfing Pattern ?

We went from panic mode on Jan 24 towards the Dead Cat Bounce
Experiment on Jan 27 and 28 and finally having the coup de jarnaque
with a daily bearish engulfing pattern on Jan 29...

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Then Yen good indicator of Financial Markets:
SP500 and the Yen: Same Pattern ?
2) Emerging Financials approaching a Support line:
SP500 Emerging Financials Near Support ?
3) Volatility tells me we need another panic wave:
VIX and SP500: Near the Panic Zone ?

End of the month is near and it will bring even more volatility into the market. It s been awhile the stocks underperformed bonds for a whole month. Portfolio rebalancing will add to the already volatile market.

We broke on Jan 24 the major trendline support at 1820 and went directly to the next major support without taking a breath:, 1780. That was astonishing to me, was expecting 2 or 3 sessions to do that move.
It tells me that major damage have been done to the market and can bring the kind of behavior of selling
the still good performing stocks ( since beginning of the year ) to ease the pain on bad ones ( like Jan 27 )...

Back to the technical levels now.

We still can have a tiny The dead cat bounce today with max 1783. Fed meeting now behind us, it didn t help the Emerging Markets... Breaking the 1783 level was for me coming from a correction in a bull market to now entering a new bear market zone: we must stay under 1783 for that scenario to unfold.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction - last day (4th graph below).
First A Dead Cat Bounce is expected between 1778 to max 1783.
But if we start to trade below 1768, then direct drop towards 1754, the next big support level.

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a bear mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1783 and we will trade towards 1768 max 1754...

Having a daily close below 1768 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1783 will mean to me that we will be back into a consolidation mode and trade max 1801 and resume downtrend after ...

We are still within a nasty downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1768 support and 1806 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market resistance trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1828 level.

The market should trade today between 1768 and 1783. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 29 Dead Cat Bounce Phase Completed ?

We went from panic mode on Jan 24 towards the Dead Cat Bounce
Experiment since Jan 27: for me, that phase is now completed...

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Then Yen good indicator of Financial Markets:
SP500 and the Yen: Same Pattern ?
2) Financials Dead Cat Bounce will bring Complencency:
SP500 Financials: Dead Cat Bounce?
3) Seasonals Still a Headwind for the Market:
SP500 Seasonality Trend

Seasonality headwinds still for a few days (market turns around Jan 30), after that market will push to highest level (around Feb 3) to fall back after... All within a huge range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

We broke on Jan 24 the major trendline support at 1820 and went directly to the next major support without taking a breath:, 1780. That was astonishing to me, was expecting 2 or 3 sessions to do that move.
It tells me that major damage have been done to the market and can bring the kind of behavior of selling
the still good performing stocks ( since beginning of the year ) to ease the pain on bad ones ( like Jan 27 )...

Back to the technical levels now.

The dead cat bounce phase is now completed: I had the zone between 1792 to 1802 and we completed that phase into the overnight session.. Fed meeting On Jan 29 will add to uncertainty.
I ll remain unconvinced of the bull trend until we come back above the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) at 1806.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
First A Dead Cat Bounce is expected between 1792 to max 1802. COMPLETED
Now, either will range trade or back into a downtrend market: 1783 will make that difference...

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: still into a correction mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1806 (50 Day Moving Average) and we will trade towards
1783 max 1771...

Having a daily close below 1771 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1806 will mean to me that we will trade max 1811 for now max 1823 and resume downtrend after ...

We are still within a nasty downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1771 support and 1809 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market resistance trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1828 level.

The market should trade today between 1783 and 1802. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 28 The Dead Cat Bounce Experiment ?

Market yesterday was in Panic Mode: It started with the Financials
but quickly been felt through even good performing sectors
like healthcare and the Internet stocks. That tells me that those
positions were liquidated to offset losses in the financials.
A typical panic portfolio rebalancing event...

My Focus will be Still on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Market Into Oversold Condition:
SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Territory ?
2) Volatility of Financials reflect fear:
SP500 Financials HVol: Near Panic Level ?
3) Seasonals Still a Headwind for the Market:
SP500 Seasonality Trend

Seasonality headwinds still for a few days (market turns around Jan 30), after that market will push to highest level (around Feb 3) to fall back after... All within a huge range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

We broke on Jan 24 the major trendline support at 1820 and went directly to the next major support without taking a breath:, 1780. That was astonishing to me, was expecting 2 or 3 sessions to do that move.
It tells me that major damage have been done to the market and can bring the kind of behavior of selling
the still good performing stocks ( since beginning of the year ) to ease the pain on bad ones ( like Jan 27 )...

Back to the technical levels now.

I was expecting yesterday a dead cat bounce but the session end was awful: it tells me how desperate the bulls are to clean bad positions and will then tell me by how much the next downtrend will be in terms of price action and magnitute in the next few sessions. Fed meeting On Jan 29 adds to uncertainty.
I think we will see a stronger dead cat bounce today that will give faith to the bulls but I ll remain unconvinced until we come back above the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) now at 1806.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
First A Dead Cat Bounce is expected between 1792 to max 1802.
Failing today to retest yesterday s high at 1792 will mean to me technical weakness...

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a correction mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1806 (50 Day Moving Average) and we will trade towards
1776 and 1767 ( already traded on Jan 27 ) max 1754...

Having a daily close below 1776 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1806 will mean to me that we will trade max 1811 for now max 1823 and resume downtrend after ...

We are still within a nasty downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1773 support and 1811 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market resistance trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1823 level.

The market should trade today between 1771 and 1802. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 27 Mind the Gap ?

Last week I wrote:
So, the reason for the start of the market correction was not the
Chinese PMI, but a credit event in China that was a lot more of
concerns. PMI can adjust quickly in months. Credit event can
cascade and take years to resolve. The market misunderstood
The Chinese Room Argument and that brang The Gap...

My Focus will be on Financials and the Yen.

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Still Asia back in play:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: The Failed Nikkei Break Out ?
2) Volatility of Financials reflect fear:
SP500 Financials HVol: Near Panic Level ?
3) Retail participants are now in full retreat:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Weakening ?
4) US Financials Stocks have seen a demolition derby:
SP500 Financials: My Broken Supports ?

Seasonality headwinds still for a few days (market turns around Jan 30), after that market will push to highest level (around Feb 3) to fall back after... All within a huge range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

We broke on Jan 24 the major trendline support at 1820 and went directly to the next major support without taking a breath:, 1780. That was astonishing to me, was expecting 2 or 3 sessions to do that move.
It tells me that major damage have been done to the market and can bring the kind of behavior of selling
the still good performing stocks ( since beginning of the year ) to ease the pain on bad ones...

Back to the technical levels now.

I think we will see a dead cat bounce today: depending how much the market rebound today will tell me how desperate the bulls are to clean bad positions and will then tell me by how much the next downtrend will be in terms of price action and magnitute in the next few sessions. Fed meeting On Jan 29 adds to uncertainty.

The risk is still tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
First A Dead Cat Bounce is expected between 1795 to max 1802.

We broke the channel support on Jan 24 at 1825: now into a correction mode.
Now, we don t have a daily close above 1806 (50 Day Moving Average) and we will trade towards
1776 and 1767...

Having a daily close below 1776 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1754...

A daily close above 1806 will mean to me that we will trade max 1814 for now max 1823 and resume downtrend after ...

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1776 support and 1814 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market resistance trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1823 level.

The market should trade today between 1776 and 1802. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 24 The Chinese Room Argument ?

Market broke yesterday finally the Range. Market participants were
all blaming Chinese PMI for that. I was really surprise to see
US Financials stocks being hammered like that.

So, the reason was not the PMI, but a credit event in China that was
a lot more of concerns. PMI can adjust quickly in months.

Credit event can cascade and take years to resolve. The market
misunderstood The Chinese Room Argument....

Complencency are still there. Stocktwits stream too bullish still...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Still Asia back in play:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: SP500 Driven by Them ?
2) Near a Major Trendline Support:
SP500 Futures - Near the Precipice ?
3) Financials Broke their Support Trendline:
Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Still Room on the Downside ?

Seasonality headwinds still for 1week ( market turns around Jan 30 ), after that market will push to highest level ( around Feb 3 ) to fall back after... All within a range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

Indicators are sending all kind of Unusual signal:
For me it is all cautious signal that keep my idea for a huge range trade with gaps and air pockets on the way.
That give me the feeling that we will be stuck on a big picture for a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1780-1847...

Yesterday we broke the short term range but for me, if we break the major trendline support now at 1820, it will be a lot more signicant to me; more downside and it will be quicker, 1780?.

Back to the technical levels now.

The risk is tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
Failing to do a new high from Jan 21 high ( 1844 ) will be a sign of technical weakness to me.

We broke the channel support at 1825 yesterday: now into a correction mode.
Now, we don t have a daily above 1825 and we will trade towards 1813 and 1809...
Having a daily close below 1809 will break all the hopes from the bulls and open the door to a quick 1780...

A daily close above 1825 will mean to me that we will trade max 1834 for now and resume downtrend after ...

We are back within a downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1788 support and 1823 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market support trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1820 level.

The market should trade today between 1809 and 1830. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 23 The Battle of the Range ?

5th Real Attempt to break out the high made on Dec 31 and
Failed again... The Battle of the Range have Begun.

We are facing again a market that digest in Time more than in Price...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Asia back in play:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: SP500 Driven by Them ?
2) Still Face Seasonality Headwinds:
SP500 Seasonality Trend
3) Financials Still showing signs of Fatigue:
SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Market Fatigue ?

Seasonality headwinds still for 1week ( market turns around Jan 30 ), after that market will push to highest level ( around Feb 3 ) to fall back after... All within a range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

I wrote last week: Indicators are sending all kind of Unusual signal:
VIX on the low side, SKEW Index on the high side, Financials Volatility rising, ETFs Risk Off... For me it is all cautious signal that keep my idea for a huge range trade with gaps and air pockets on the way.

That give me the feeling that we will be stuck on a big picture for a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

The range trade since Jan 15 is giving us too much complencency.
One thing must be in fact starting to build here: the more time we spend in a range, the more violent move will be when we finally break one side or the other of that range.

Back to the technical levels now.

We have now 3 channels overlapp, telling me again that the price action will be choppy and trendless with huge gaps... A Tough environment for managers, a dream for day traders ?

The risk is tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
Failing to do a new high today from Jan 21 high ( 1844 ) will be a sign of technical weakness to me.

So I STILL call for a range for now (the new channel), 1825 to 1844 with no real strong bull or bear conviction.
I need that we break one side or the other of the new channel that started on Jan 15 to have strong convictions...

I still think we have to test the 1825 at some point and see if we rebound on it... If not 1817 and 1811...

A daily close above 1844 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31:
so 1850 max 1859 for now ...

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on Jan 15 with 1825 support and 1844 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market support trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1818 level.

The market should trade today between 1825 and 1844. Expect average volatility...

Jan 22 Time vs Price ?

Fourth Real Attempt to break out the high made on Dec 31 and
Failed again...

We are facing again a market that digest in Time more than in Price...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Volatility to Pick Up:
The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Still Face Seasonality Headwinds:
SP500 Seasonality Trend
3) Market Still in Range Pattern Mode:
Russell 2000 and SP500: Still Grinding Phase ?

Seasonality headwinds still for 1week ( market turns around Jan 30 ), after that market will push to highest level ( around Feb 3 ) to fall back after... All within a range trade pattern that will shake our convictions...

I wrote last week: Indicators are sending all kind of Unusual signal:
VIX on the low side, SKEW Index on the high side, Financials Volatility rising, ETFs Risk Off... For me it is all cautious signal that keep my idea for a huge range trade with gaps and air pockets on the way.

That give me the feeling that we will be stuck on a big picture for a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

Back to the technical levels now.

We have now 3 channels overlapp, telling me again that the price action will be choppy and trendless with huge gaps... A Tough environment for managers, a dream for day traders ?

The risk is tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
Failing to do a new high today from Jan 21 high ( 1844 ) will be a sign of technical weakness to me.

So I ll call for a range for now (the new channel), 1826 to 1844 with no real strong bull or bear conviction.
I need that we break one side or the other of the new channel that started on Jan 15 to have strong convictions...

I still think we have to test the 1826 at some point and see if we rebound on it... If not 1817 and 1811...

A daily close above 1844 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31:
so 1850 max 1859 for now ...

We are now within a new downtrend channel that started on Jan 15 with 1826 support and 1844 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market support trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1816 level.

The market should trade today between 1826 and 1844. Expect average volatility...

Jan 21 The SKEW Experiment ?

Third Real Attempt to break out the high made on Dec 31 and
Failed again...

Funny thing is that Bulls are still quite convince of the continuity
of the uptrade, so why the SKEW telling us that hedging the
tail risks have not been that high since 2011 ?
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Expect Abnormal Behavior ?

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Complencency are still obvious into the Financials:
SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: To Infinity and Beyond ?
2) Market Fighting to stay at those levels:
SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Toppish ?
3) Even the Retail showing signs of consolidation:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Consolidating ?

I wrote last week: Indicators are sending all kind of Unusual signal:
VIX on the low side, SKEW Index on the high side, Financials Volatility rising, ETFs Risk Off... For me it is all cautious signal that keep my idea for a huge range trade with gaps and air pockets on the way.

That give me the feeling that we will be stuck on a big picture for a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

Back to the technical levels now.

We have now 3 channels overlapp, telling me again that the price action will be choppy and trendless with huge gaps... A Tough environment for managers, a dream for day traders ?

The risk is tilted to the downside, with seasonals pointing in that direction ( see 4th graph below )
Failing to do a new high today from Jan 17 high ( 1843.75 ) will be a sign of technical weakness to me.

So I ll call for a range for now ( the new channel ), 1828 to 1844 with no real strong bull or bear conviction.
I need that we break one side or the other of the new channel that started on Jan 15 to have strong convictions...

I still think we have to test the 1825 at some point and see if we rebound on it... If not 1817 and 1811...

A daily close above 1841 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31:
so 1847 max 1859 for now ...

We broke the uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1836 support and 1852 resistance.
May I remind you that a the next strong market support trendline that started on Oc 9 2013 is the 1816 level.

The market should trade today between 1828 and 1844. Expect average volatility...

Jan 17 The Range Trade Experiment ?

Second Real Attempt to break out the high made on Dec 31 and
Failed again...
But the market grindiness will take it back with a revenge... Later...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Volatility of Financials are Unusual:
SP500 Financials HVol: Cautious Signal ?
2) Retail Sector is now on a Risk Off Mode:
SP500 : the Risk On Risk Off ETFs: Risk Off Continue to Prevail ?
3) Market Behavior will be Atypical:
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Expect Abnormal Behavior ?

Indicators are sending all kind of Unusual signal:
VIX on the low side, SKEW Index on the high side, Financials Volatility rising, ETFs Risk Off... For me it is all cautious signal that keep my idea for a huge range trade with gaps and air pockets on the way.

On a big picture, a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

Back to the technical levels now.

I still think we have to test the 1834 first and see if we rebound on it...
But if we start to trade below 1831, it s all over...

On Jan 15, a close above 1836 brang the bull case in action.

Now, for the bull scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close below 1834.
The best scenario for me here will be to test 1834 and rebound on that level. ( We did on Jan 16 ).
Failing to do a new high today from Jan 17 high ( 1843.75 ) will be a sign of technical weakness to me.

A daily close above 1834 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31:
so 1847 max 1859 for now ...

A daily close below 1834 will bring 1828 max 1821...

We are back within an uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1836 support and 1852 resistance.

The market should trade today between 1831 and 1847. Expect average volatility...
Jan 16 First Attempt ?

First Real Attempt to break out the high made on Dec 31 Failed.
But the market grindiness will take it back with a revenge...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Transports are testing a 3 year level ( ratio ):
Dow Jones Transport and Industrials and SP500: Another Bullish Wave ?
2) Small Capitalization doing Better:
Russell 2000 and SP500: Grinding Phase ?
3) Market Behavior is Atypical:
SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Expect Abnormal Behavior ?

I rote yesterday:
What I think here after the dead cat bounce of Jan 14, is that we may have made an excess yesterday. A tiny pullback is expected, consolidation still and choppiness into the markets. On a big picture, a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

I was surprised of no pullback and direct go to retest the high; still think we have to test the 1834 first and see if we rebound on it...

Back to the technical levels now.

Yesterday s close above 1836 brang the bull case in action.

Now, for the bull scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close below 1834.
The best scenario for me here will be to test 1834 and rebound on that level.

A daily close above 1834 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31: so 1847, then 1859...

A daily close below 1834 will bring 1828 max 1824...

We are back within an uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1834 support and 1850 resistance.

The market should trade today between 1834 and 1847. Expect average volatility...

Jan 15 Choppiness vs Trendiness ?

I think that the change in 2014 vs 2013 in the price action on the
markets will be choppy market and not trendiness and we will have
to trade accordingly...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Transports are testing a 3 year level ( ratio ):
Dow Jones Transport and Industrials and SP500: Another Bullish Wave ?
2) PVT Call for a Range Trade Scenario:
SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Range Trade ?
3) Seasonals are still sligtly bearish:
SP500 Seasonality Trend

What I think here after the dead cat bounce of Jan 14, is that we may have made an excess yesterday. A tiny pullback is expected, consolidation still and choppiness into the markets. On a big picture, a range trade for sometimes is what I expect, kind of 1800-1860...

Back to the technical levels now.

1836 will make the difference from a consolidation scenario to a bull case. Til then, a tiny pullback scenario prevail to first 1831 max 1825...

Now, for the consolidation scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1836 ( market closed at 1833.00 on Jan 14 - I think it was an excess, my level on Jan 14 was 1830 ).

A daily close above 1836 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31: so 1847, then 1859...

A daily close below 1825 will bring 1815 max 1811...

We are still within a downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1802 support and 1836 resistance.

The market should trade today between 1825 and 1841. Expect average volatility...

Jan14 Dead Cat Bounce ?
A lot of technical damage have been done. Expect a tiny dead cat
bounce before resuming another period of consolidation...

Defensive sectors are a la mode...
Again, The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Baltic Dry Index in a free fall:
Are the Baltic Dry Index Telling Us to Expect a Weaker Stock Market ?
2) Retail Buyers Still into the Market:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Consolidating ?
3) Markets are still in complacency mode:
SP500 Financials HVol: Complacency ?

What I think here after that big drop, is that we may have another plateau/consolidation phase ( like we had between Jan 2 to Jan 10 ) before gapping down in another nasty wave... But first the dead cat bounce...

Back to the technical levels now.

1830 will make the difference again. Til then, the Dead Cat Bounce scenario prevail to first 1819 max 1825...

Now, for the consolidation scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1830 ( market closed at 1815.00 on Jan 13 ) and below 1809, unless targets at 1804 first max 1800 for now...

A daily close above 1830 will mean to me that we will test new high made on Dec 31: so 1847...

We are within a new downtrend channel that started on Jan 2 with 1804 support and 1838 resistance.

The market should trade today between 1809 and 1825. Expect average volatility...

Jan 13 The Battle of the Bulge ?

Non-Farm Payrolls at +74k last Friday saw a quick drop and then a
grinding phase, thanks to the expectations of the Fed moving slower
on the Tapering process; the Battle of the Bulge just began for me...

Defensive sectors are a la mode...
Again, The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) DJ Transports roaring back strongly:
Dow Jones Transport and Industrials and SP500: The Strong Come Back ?
2) Financials are defying gravity:
Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Into the Overbought Zone ?
3) Markets are still in complacency mode:
VIX and SP500: Either VIX is too Low or SP500 too High ?

It seems again that we had a correction more in time than in prices, giving the main technicals indicators to be back in more normal levels. That huge battle and portfolio rebalancing that is taking place at the start of the Earnings season...

Back to the technical levels now.

1840 will make the difference again. Til then, the Range scenario prevail...

Now, for the range trade scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1840 ( market closed at 1837.75 on Jan 10 ) and below 1829, unless targets at 1826 first max 1814 for now...

A daily close above 1840 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1844 first then 1847 and 1855...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1815 support and 1866 resistance.
Also, a new tiny uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1829 support and 1844 resistance...

So 1840 will make the difference today to call for the return in a bull phase ( close above 1840 ) or the continuity of the correction / range trade - 1829 to 1844 for now...

The market should trade today between 1826 and 1840. Expect average volatility...

Jan10 D-Day ?

Non-Farm Payrolls whisper number is around 240k.
A number 25-50k higher than consensus could trigger a discussion
around a potential faster taper pace by the Fed.

Again, The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Three factors brang my attention:
1) Retail Buying more balanced than Dec 2013:
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Collapsing ?
2) Price Action Confirmed by PVT:
SP500 : Price Volume Trend: Still Toppish ?
3) Financials outperformance brings complacency:
SP500 Financials HVol: Complacency ?

It seems again that we had a correction more in time than in prices, giving the main technicals indicators to be back in more normal levels.

Back to the technical levels now.

1838 will make the difference again.

Now, for the range trade scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1838 ( market closed at 1833.00 on Jan 9 ) with targets at 1826 first max 1816 for now...

A daily close above 1838 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1844 first then 1847 and 1855...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1812 support and 1862 resistance.
Also, a new tiny uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1826 support and 1842 resistance...

So 1838 will make the difference today to call for the return in a bull phase ( close above 1838 ) or the continuity of the correction / range trade...

The market should trade today between 1824 and 1847. Expect above average volatility...
Jan9 Time vs Price Correction ?
Still The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Two factors brang my attention:
1) Expect more volatility ahead:
The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
2) Financials outperformance brings complacency:
SP500 Financials HVol: Complacency ?

It seems again that we had a correction more in time than in prices,
giving the main technicals indicators to be back in more normal levels.

Back to the technical levels now.

1837 will make the difference again.

We did close below 1829 on Jan 2 ( 1826.50 ). Now, for the bleeding scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1837 ( market closed at 1832.50 on Jan 8 ) with targets at 1824 first max 1814 for now...

A daily close above 1837 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1843 first then 1847 and 1852...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1809 support and 1859 resistance.
Also, a new tiny uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1824 support and 1839 resistance...

So 1837 will make the difference today to call for the return in a bull phase ( close above 1837 ) or the continuity of the correction...

The market should trade today between 1826 and 1839. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 8 Last Call ?
The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Market is rebalancing for defensive plays: Bigger Capitalization
doing better than Smaller ones. Financials are the best performers...

Three things brang my attention:
1) Big vs Small Capitalization:
NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: NYSE better than SP500 ?
2) The Nikkei and the Yen are the Main Driver Here:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: SP500 Driven by Them ?
3) Financials into overbought territory:
SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Market Fatigue ?

On Jan 3rd, first attempt to break the 1833 level; Same thing on Jan 6, we did trade at the top 1832.50.
On Jan 7, we did 1834.75... I think yesterday was D-Day for the market to break out on the upside...
But Nikkei up 1.9% and Yen weaker are still keeping me on the edge... Last Call for SP500 today for 1834 level... We break it or not...

May I remind you that from Jan 6, seasonality is bearish for the SP500...
And from @Vconomics : Since 1929, when the S&P has fallen more than 2.5% in the first 3 trading days of the year, there has been a 15%+ correction 80% of the time

Back to the technical levels now.

1834 will make the difference again.

We did close below 1829 on Jan 2 ( 1826.50 ). Now, for the bleeding scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1834 ( market closed at 1830.75 on Jan 7 ) with targets at 1814 first max 1810 for now...

A daily close above 1834 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1841 first then 1847 and 1852...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1805 support and 1856 resistance.
Also, a new tiny uptrend channel that started on Jan 6 with 1821 support and 1837 resistance...

So 1834 will make the difference today to call for saloon s door ( close above 1834 ) or the continuity of the correction...

The market should trade today between 1821 and 1834. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 7 - 3rd Attempt ?

The Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Two things brang my attention:
1) Financials Showing Strenght:
SP500 Financials Weekly: Quite Resilient ?
2) The Nikkei and the Yen are the Main Driver Here:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: SP500 Driven by Them ?

On Jan 3rd, first attempt to break the 1833 level;
Same thing on Jan 6, we did trade at the top 1832.50.
Today I think with the 3 rd attempt, it may come back above it...

May I remind you that from Jan 6, seasonality is bearish for the SP500...
And from @Vconomics : Since 1929, when the S&P has fallen more than 2.5% in the first 3 trading days of the year, there has been a 15%+ correction 80% of the time

Back to the technical levels now.

1833 will make the difference again. Very Tough Call Here...

We did close below 1829 on Jan 2 ( 1826.50 ). Now, for the bleeding scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1833 ( market closed at 1825.5 on Jan 3 ) with targets at 1814 first max 1807 for now...

A daily close above 1833 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1840 first then 1847 and 1852...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1802 support and 1852 resistance.
Also, a new tiny downtrend channel that started on Dec 27 with 1807 support and 1828 resistance...

So 1833 will make the difference today to call for saloon s door ( close above 1833 ) or the continuity of the correction... Bulls comments for Jan 2 and 3 blame the poor liquidity for that correction but cannot say that for Jan 6 ; they had Jan 6 to bring it back if they can... And they did not...

The market should trade today between 1817 and 1833. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 6 The Dow Theory ?
Last week I wrote:
But we are going into a Last Euphoria Phase into Frothy Markets...
And the Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Four things brang my attention:
1) Emerging Markets are Shaken:
SP500 Emerging Financials Warnings ?
2) The Nikkei and the Yen are the Main Driver Here:
The Yen/Nikkei Connection: SP500 Driven by the Nikkei ?
3) Market Still Complacent:
VIX and SP500: Either VIX is too Low or SP500 too High ?
4) An the DJ Transports are Saying be Careful Here:
Dow Jones Transport and Industrials and SP500: Why that Broadening Divergence ?

May I remind you that from Jan 6, seasonality is bearish for the SP500...
And from @Vconomics : Since 1929, when the S&P has fallen more than 2.5% in the first 3 trading days of the year, there has been a 15%+ correction 80% of the time

Back to the technical levels now.

We did close below 1829 on Jan 2 ( 1826.50 ). Now, for the bleeding scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1832 ( market closed at 1825.5 on Jan 3 ) with targets at 1814 first max 1808 for now...

A daily close above 1832 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1841 first then 1847 and 1852...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1799 support and 1848 resistance.
Also, a new tiny downtrend channel that started on Dec 27 with 1810 support and 1829 resistance...

So 1832 will make the difference today to call for saloon s door ( close above 1832 ) or the continuity of the correction... Bulls comments for Jan 2 and 3 blame the poor liquidity for that correction; they had the 3rd to bring it back if they can... And they di not...

The market should trade today between 1814 and 1832. Expect above average volatility...

Season's Greetings and best wishes for a happy and fulfilling new year.

Jan 3 The Day After ?

Yesterday I wrote:
But we are going into a Last Euphoria Phase into Frothy Markets...
And the Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

The real surprise was that kind of negative reaction to China PMIs
and no bullish seasonality effect; Bulls are shaken here...

Four things brang my attention:
1) Emerging Markets are Shaken:
SP500 Emerging Financials Warnings ?
2) Retail Sentiment Survey are the most Bullish Since 1987...
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
3) Expect Volatility to pick Up:
The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
4) A Broken Wedge on Utilities Sector:
SP500 Utilities Sector: Broken Wedge ?

Last week I wrote:
I should remind that seasonals of the past 20 years from Dec 19 for the next 21 days gave an average of +3% in terms of performance. SP500 Dec 19 low was 1795. so a +3% gives us an ultimate target of 1849...
And we did have a high of 1846.50...
The main point here is that a last Euphoric push on January 2 and 3 can extend the market but usually is the top for that month. So the way to play it is to stay long but getting the trailing profit stop closer and be prepare to reverse positions on a dime...

Back to the technical levels now.

We did close below 1829 on Jan 2 ( 1826.50 ). Now, for the bleeding scenario to continue, I need that the market dont close above 1835 with targets at 1816 first max 1807 for now...

A daily close above 1835 will mean to me that we will make new high; so 1841 first then 1847 and 1852...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1795 support and 1846 resistance.
Also, a new tiny downtrend channel that started on Dec 27 with 1816 support and 1835 resistance...

So 1835 will make the difference today to call for saloon s door ( close above 1835 ) or the continuity of the correction... Bulls comment yesterday blame the poor liquidity for that correction; they have today to bring it back if they can... Tough call honestly here...

The market should trade today between 1816 and 1837. Expect above average volatility...

Jan 2 Last Phase: Frothy Markets ?

Market is still focusing on the Santa Claus Rally Theme (SCR)
and Full Risk On (To Infinity and Beyond )...
But we are going into a Last Euphoria Phase into Frothy Markets...

Usually the 1st business day of a new year bring around +1%
in performance on that only day and then create almost the top of
the market for the month of January; see Seasonality below...
And the Yen and Financials will still be the main focus for me...

Four things brang my attention:
1) Seasonality still bullish til January 2:
SP500 Seasonality Trend
2) Retail Sentiment Survey are the most Bullish Since 1987...
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
3) Bonds are Getting Slaughtered:
iShares Barclays Treas Bond (TLT) - Back Into the Precipice ?

Back to the technical levels now.

I should remind that seasonals of the past 20 years from Dec 19 for the next 21 days gave an average of +3% in terms of performance. SP500 Dec 19 low was 1795. so a +3% gives us an ultimate target of 1849...
And we closed on Dec 31 at 1835.50...

The main point here is that a last Euphoric push on January 2 and 3 can extend the market but usually is the top for that month. So the way to play it is to stay long but getting the trailing profit stop closer and be prepare to reverse positions on a dime...

Already starting to trade below 1833 will be the first sign of weakness. The market still need to stay above 1829 on a daily close to keep the grinding Santa Claus Rally Mode.

Here, we should not be back below the 1829 level today to be in compliance with technicals... Unless risk of slippage towards 1814 and it will be bad in the technical sequence...

A daily close today below 1829 will bring 1814 and max 1801 ( 20 DMA)...

We are within a wide upward channel that started on Dec 16 with 1792 support and 1842 resistance.
Also, a new tiny downtrend channel that started on Dec 27 with 1835 support and 1845 resistance...

So the market can take a pause or tiny correction here before resuming uptrend: 1829 will make the difference... Last big push on January 2 maybe extended to the 3rd and then a correction...
The market should trade today between 1829 and 1845. Expect average volatility...